Archive for Prospect Lists

After posting his top 100 prospects list on Thursday, Keith Law followed up yesterday with a list of sleeper prospects for each team (Insider req’d). “Third baseman Tyler Austin has turned himself into a pretty good defender over there, defying earlier predictions he’d have to move to first,” said KLaw of his sleeper pick for the Yankees. “[He] has a whole-field approach to hitting with pull power right now, and runs well for his size with a perfect stolen-base record in the pros.” Austin hit a combined .354/.418/.579 between the two short season leagues last summer after being drafted as a catcher in 2010.

“Also watch right fielder Ben Gamel, younger brother of Mat,” added Law. “Ben shows a lot of promise with the bat, with good ability to square up the baseball and plenty of hip rotation for future power.” I’ve always been a bit of a Gamel homer, so I’m glad that’s been validated some.

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(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Spring prospect season is in full swing, starting yesterday with Keith Law’s organizational rankings. It continued today with his list of the game’s top 100 prospects (1-25, 26-50, 51-75, 76-100) and top ten prospects by team (all Insider req’d). The Yankees placed four in the top 100, which was unsurprisingly topped by Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Matt Moore. Manny Banuelos checks in at #23 (down from #12 last year), Mason Williams at #34, Gary Sanchez at #55, and Dellin Betances at #83. Jesus Montero is ranked ninth, one spot ahead of another old pal, Gerrit Cole.

“When he’s right, he’ll show an above-average fastball at 90-94 mph (but was a tick below that in 2011), an above-average to plus changeup and a solid-average curveball with good two-plane break,” said KLaw about Banuelos, while noting that his trademark command was off last season. “Everything still points to Banuelos commanding the ball in the long term as he did before 2011, and much of the disappointment in his season is a function of our high expectations for him. He still projects as a solid No. 2, assuming his previous level of command returns.”

Williams’ ranking was a bit surprising, but in a good way. I’m pretty sure you won’t see him that high anywhere else this year. “[The] most impressive part of [Williams'] game in 2011 was the quality of his at bats, which improved over the course of the summer,” said Law. “[He's] barely begun to scratch the surface of his ability.” The biggest thing for Williams going forward is his size, not necessarily his tools. He just needs to bulk up and add some muscle to avoid having the bat knocked out of his hands by high-end fastballs at the upper levels.

The preseason hype machine was out of control with Sanchez last year, which is why it’s easy to think he had a disappointing season with Low-A Charleston. The attitude problems were disappointing, but the power and production certainly weren’t. “Sanchez’s first full year in pro ball had major positives and negatives — the bat is more advanced than anyone thought, and the glove is less so,” Law said. “He can really hit with present above-average power and projects to hit 30 to 35 homers a year down the road, having demonstrated a solid approach for an 18-year-old in full-season ball … He could be a star.”

Last but not least is Betances, who continues to look more and more like a reliever because he hasn’t improved his command at all in five years as a pro. “He’ll pitch in the low 90s but runs it up to 97 mph and would likely sit 94-97, if not better, in relief,” said KLaw, adding that his curveball and delivery are inconsistent. The latter contributes to his strike-throwing problem. “He’s 23 now, still not very experienced, but he has size and velocity you can’t teach. The lack of progress and athleticism make a bullpen role more likely than a spot in the top half of a rotation.”

Those four top Law’s list of the top ten Yankees prospects, followed by a surprising name at number five: Tyler Austin. There’s no write-up, but I have to think he believes in the bat and thinks Austin can stay at third base long-term to warrant a ranking that high. Jose Campos, Dante Bichette Jr., Austin Romine, J.R. Murphy, and Slade Heathcott round out the top ten. Ravel Santana is a top ten guy based on talent, but I have no problem with leaving him out given that devastating ankle injury. Law also published a list of ten prospects who just missed the Top 100 (Insider req’d), but no Yankees farmhands made the list. Just as a heads up, my Top 30 Prospects List is coming out next Friday, so hooray for that.

Update: ESPN NY has the full player comments for Banuelos, Williams, Sanchez, and Betances for free, so head over there to check them out.

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Keith Law posted his organizational (a.k.a. farm system) rankings today (Insider req’d), with the Yankees coming in at number ten. That’s down one spot from last year, which isn’t surprising given the Jesus Montero trade. His departure obviously took a big bite out of the system, though I’m glad to see them still in the top ten.

“I might be jumping the gun here, but I see a lot of star potential on their bottom few affiliates, including new acquisition Jose Campos from Seattle, to go with the two power arms from their Scranton club (Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances),” said KLaw with his obvious anti-Yankees bias. “The flaw in the system is the lack of near-in talent, especially position players, who could either help the big club soon or provide more fodder for trades.”

The Padres, Rays, and Blue Jays occupy the top three spots while the Marlins, Indians, and White Sox are the bottom three. The Orioles are 17th and the Red Sox are 18th, so five of the top 18 systems in the game (27.8%) are in the AL East. The Mariners, by the way, are right behind the Yankees at eleven following the addition of Montero.

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John Sickels of Minor League Ball published his list of the top 20 Yankees prospects over the weekend, a list that is unsurprisingly topped by Jesus Montero. Montero, a Grade A prospect, is followed by Gary Sanchez (B+) and four B-prospects: Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Mason Williams, and Dante Bichette Jr. Click through for his brief individual write-ups and grade explanations. I’ve found myself disagreeing with Sickels more than any other publication because I think he relies on stats a little too much, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. It’s important to see different opinions of players.

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(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

It’s prospect season, and Baseball America is continuing to pump out their team top ten lists pretty much every other day. All of the NL lists have been published, and today the crazy stacked Rays top ten hit their site. If the name Mikie Mahtook sounds familiar, it’s because he’s Tampa’s tenth best prospect and the guy they took with the draft pick the Yankees gave them for signing Rafael Soriano. They say the LSU product “possesses the power/speed combination to make an impact in the majors” and “he’s an advanced hitter who could move quickly.” So hooray for that.

Anyway, the Yankees top ten list will be released online two weeks from today, January 4th, but if you have a Baseball America subscription with access to the digital version of their magazine, you can see the list today. Friend of the site and cat lover Leonora has said access and shared the top ten list on Twitter earlier today…

  1. Jesus Montero
  2. Manny Banuelos
  3. Dellin Betances
  4. Gary Sanchez
  5. Mason Williams
  6. Dante Bichette Jr.
  7. Ravel Santana
  8. Austin Romine
  9. J.R. Murphy
  10. Slade Heathcott

John Manuel, who’s been writing up the Yankees top tens for eight years now, very clearly went heavy on tools this time around. The top three was the easy part, though some might argue Betances over Banuelos. Bottom line, those three guys should be the top three names in any Yankees prospect list you see this winter. Hard to take it seriously otherwise.

Sanchez at four isn’t terribly surprising, though chances are I’ll have him behind Williams whenever I get around to doing my annual Top 30 List. The 19-year-old had a very busy season in 2011, though not necessarily in a good way. He was just so-so in first half with Low-A Charleston before being sent back to Extended Spring Training for disciplinary reasons, then he demolished the ball in the second half before a broken finger ended his season prematurely. Baseball America still loves his bat and plate discipline, but they also note that he struggles with breaking balls, both hitting them and catching them. According to Manual, some scouts even said he stopped calling for breaking balls behind the plate, which is a problem.

Bichette and Santana making the top ten over essentially big league ready arms like David Phelps and Adam Warren (Hector Noesi isn’t eligible) is a bit surprising to me, but it’s not crazy. They topped the Gulf Coast League Top 20 Prospects List back in September, and really the only questions are long-term position (Bichette) and health (Santana). Ravel is reportedly doing well following his brutal and season-ending ankle injury, though he still has a ways to go with his rehab. He is expected to be ready in time for camp though, which is great news. Heathcott was another interesting top ten guy given his continued shoulder problems, but like I said, the tools won out this year.

I’ve had a tendency to lean towards probability in recent years, valuing big league readiness a little more than long-term potential. That’s a personal preference though, there’s nothing wrong with placing an emphasis on upside and potential stardom. Many times it’s too hard to ignore (Sanchez, Williams), but anything less than a potential star gives me pause when compared to his brethren at the higher levels. The Yankees farm system is down from where it was a year ago, but it’s still a top ten system with star power up top and near-MLB ready depth below that. Baseball America’s top ten list reflects the upside this winter.

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Baseball America wrapped up their league top 20′s earlier this week, and today they posted a list of players that just missed those lists (subs. req’d). Catcher Isaias Tejeda just missed the Rookie Level GCL list, which was topped by Dante Bichette Jr. and Ravel Santana. “His tools have improved and he used a compact swing to bat .331/.404/.568 in 148 at-bats,” said the article. “[Tejeda] doesn’t chase many pitches out of the strike zone and works the gaps as a hitter. Behind the plate he blocks balls well and has good footwork, though his arm is just average.”

Three other Yankees farmhands were mentioned in the article: “Shortstop-turned-righthander Reynaldo Polanco has a promising fastball/curveball combination, outfielder Daniel Lopez has premium speed and second baseman Jose Rosario has a promising set of raw tools as well.” That GCL team was stacked this year, though it was a bit top heavy with position players.

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Baseball America posted their final Yankees-relevant minor league top 20 today, placing Jesus Montero fifth among all Triple-A International League prospects. Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, Devin Mesoraco, and Desmond Jennings were the four players ahead of Montero. No other Yankees farmhands made the list.

In the subscriber-only scouting report, James Bailey says Montero “doesn’t have the prettiest swing but compensates with exceptional strength and hand-eye coordination,” and he “crushes balls to all fields and projects as a .300 hitter with 30 homers per year.” As always, the question is his defense behind the plate. “He has arm strength but has a slow release and lacks accuracy on his throws,” said Bailey. “He lacks athleticism and still has a ways to go with his receiving and game-calling, and he loses focus too often.” Montero’s bat is big league ready, we saw that in September, but the Yankees will have to come up with a way to get him in the lineup for 600+ at-bats next year.

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(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Baseball America’s look at the top 20 prospects in each minor league continued with the Double-A Eastern League today, and three Yankees farmhands made the cut. Manny Banuelos ranked sixth, Dellin Betances was three spots behind him at number nine, and Austin Romine was a little further down at number 17. Bryce Harper and (personal fave) Travis d’Arnaud topped the list.

In the subscriber-only scouting reports, John Manuel says Banuelos has “excellent velocity for a lefthander, with his fastball sitting at 90-94 mph and touching 95 with regularity.” His changeup has “sinking, screwball action when it’s on and was often his best secondary pitches.” He can also get whiffs with a power curve. Some managers in the league noted that Banuelos’ fastball command suffered because he overthrew, but others think it was a release point issue. “[Several] observers believed that his delivery will allow him to throw more strikes as he matures,” added Manuel.

Betances is referred to as a “physical beast who uses his size to sit at 91-95 mph and reach 97 with his fastball.” The report cites three secondary pitches: a power curve, a high-80′s cutter/slider, and a changeup that has “improved and is an above-average pitch at times.” The problem continues to be command, obviously. Romine is said to have a strong arm and “the hands, athletic ability and agility needed to be a sound receiver.” He’s a streaky hitter, and his batting practice power has yet to consistently show up in games.

The next and last top 20 list of interest to Yankees fans is the Triple-A International League, which will be posted Friday. Jesus Montero will certainly make an appearance somewhere high on the list, and a few of the arms (David Phelps and Adam Warren in particular) could get some love as well. Brandon Laird might even make an appearance.

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Baseball America’s look at the top 20 prospects in each minor league continued today with the High-A Florida State League, but no Yankees farmhands made the list. The Tampa Yanks were pretty barren this year, but I thought Brett Marshall had a decent chance of making it. I thought wrong, apparently.

In the subscriber-only chat, Jim Shonerd said that the Yankees didn’t have anyone really close to the list. Abe Almonte “did get some mention as a guy who can run and throw and has some strength.” So much for that. The next top 20 list relevant to the Yankees is the Double-A Eastern League, which comes out tomorrow. Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos are shoo-ins, and both Austin Romine and Corban Joseph have non-zero chances of cracking the list as well. Also, just a reminder, the Arizona Fall League season starts tomorrow. The Yankees are sending seven players to the desert this year, including Joseph.

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Baseball America’s looked at the top 20 prospects in each minor league continued today with the Low-A South Atlantic League. Gary Sanchez ranked  14th, the only Yankees farmhand to crack a rather stacked list. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, arguably the two best prospects in baseball, topped the list.

In the subscriber-only scouting report, Bill Ballew says “Sanchez’s bat speed and strength ranked among the best in the league, though his swing gets too long at times.” The biggest problem is his defense, “because he stabs at pitches instead of shifting his body.” Sanchez led the league with 26 passed balls in just 60 games behind the plate. “He’s had to adjust to a lot of things both on and off the field,”  said Charleston manager Aaron Ledesma, a gentle little reminder that Sanchez was demoted to Extended Spring Training for a few weeks in the middle of the season because of attitude problems.

The next top 20 list of interest to the Yankees is the High-A Florida State League, which will be posted on Monday. The Tampa Yankees were a pretty weak squad in terms of prospects this year, but it’s a solid bet that Brett Marshall will make an appearance. Jose Quintana and the Almontes (Zoilo and Abe) might sneak on, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

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