Archive for Prospect Lists
Link Dump: Park, IPK, Jeter, BP Rankings
Posted by: | CommentsThese links have a lower Spring Training ERA than Jon Albaladejo … combined.
Doing his best Carl Pavano impression, Chan Ho Park suffered what was called a “sore glute” while getting his running in today. The Yankees canceled his planned live batting practice session this afternoon as a precaution, and he’ll throw tomorrow instead. Park, along with Mariano Rivera and Damaso Marte, should get into their first Spring Training game in a week or so.
Moving to the NL doesn’t guarantee Ian Kennedy success
When the Yankees sent Ian Kennedy to Arizona as part of the Curtis Granderson trade, the immediate thought was that the former first round pick would enjoy some immediate success in the senior circuit. Surely, the lack of a DH and the the three pitcher’s parks in the NL West would be kinder than the AL East, but as our own Joe P. mentions at FanGraphs, IPK’s fly ball tendencies don’t fit to well with Chase Field, where he’ll do the majority of his pitching in 2010 (presumably).
With Brandon Webb likely to start the season on the DL, the Diamondbacks currently have IPK penciled into their third starter’s spot. Yikes.
Could Derek Jeter become the greatest Yankee ever?
I’m inclined to say no, but Anthony McCarron of the Daily News makes a long and convincing case. For what it’s worth, Jeter is 60th all-time with 68.7 career WAR. Babe Ruth? Try 172.0 career WAR. I’d call that an uphill battle.
Baseball Prospectus’ Organization Rankings
As prospect season comes to a close, the last set of rankings we’ll see are BP’s rankings of the thirty farm systems (subs. req’d). The bottom half was posted today, and the Yankees came in at number 26 overall. While the presence of Jesus Montero gives the team a bonafide superstar prospect, the knock against them is that none of their upper level pitchers have high ceilings, and they don’t have any position players close to contributing (besides Montero). They do note, however, that the team has several prospects in the lower minors that could take a big step forward this season.
BP’s Top 101 Prospects List
Posted by: | CommentsKevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus posted his list of the top 101 prospects in the game today, with Jesus Montero checking in at number four overall. He trailed only Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, and Neftali Feliz, and was one spot ahead of Mike Stanton. No other Yankee farmhands made the list, which isn’t a total surprise, though former Yanks’ Arodys Vizcaino and Austin Jackson checked in at numbers 45 and 49, respectively. I’m sure next year will be better.
Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects
Posted by: | CommentsBaseball America posted their list of the Top 100 Prospects in all of baseball today, with Yanks’ wunderkind Jesus Montero coming at number four overall. Jason Heyward of the Braves topped the list, and was followed by Stephen Strasburg and Mike Stanton. Brian Matusz of the Orioles came in right behind Montero at number five. Montero is third different Yankee prospect to be considered one of the four best prospects in the game within the last four years, joining Phil Hughes (2007) and Joba Chamberlain (2008).
Austin Romine was the only other Yankee prospect to make the list, coming in at number 86, one spot ahead of Boston’s Lars Anderson. Old friends Arodys Vizcaino and Austin Jackson checked in a numbers 69 and 76, respectively.
Don’t miss my Top 30 Prospects list
Posted by: | CommentsForgive the self promotion, but I don’t want you to miss my Top 30 Prospects list, which I posted last Friday. I also put together a list of five players that could jump into the list next season, and chatted about the whole thing as well. So in case you missed it last week, here’s your chance to redeem yourself.
2010 Preseason Top 30 Prospects
Posted by: | CommentsSo here we are again. It seems like just last week that we were watching the Yankees parade down the Canyon of Heroes, and yet pitchers and catchers have already reported to Tampa. I guess that’s one of the many perks of having your favorite team win the World Series; a shorter offseason.
Just like the big league team, both High-A Tampa and Short Season Staten Island were able to capture their league championships in 2009. For the SI Yanks, it was their fifth league title of the decade. Double-A Trenton was unable to win their third consecutive Eastern League Championship, though Triple-A Scranton returned to the International League Championship Series after winning the crown in 2008. Overall, the Yanks’ six minor league affiliates combined for a 381-309 record, good for the second best winning percentage (.552) among the thirty clubs (Giants, .590).
Even with all the winning, the Yanks system took a big hit in all sorts of ways over the last year. Five key prospects graduated to the big leagues in 2009, while attrition knocked six others off my list all together. Five others are no longer with the organization for whatever reason. As a result, this year’s list features a whopping 16 new faces, quite the turnover in just 12 months.
As always, ranking prospects is all about trying to find a balance between performance, projection, and probability. Oodles of talent and great performance is all well and good, but if the player is in A-ball, we have to be careful and remember to temper expectations. There are certainly times that the player’s upside is so great that you can’t ignore it, no matter how far down the ladder they are. Remember, a lot of these guys are very interchangeable. I don’t think there’s much of a difference between this year’s #2 and #5 prospects, or the #15 and #30 prospects. When guys are that close, it comes down to preference.
Here’s my lists from 2007, 2008, and 2009. Hard to believe I’ve been at this for four years already, more if you count past blogging ventures. Anyway, the listed ages are as of April 1st of this year, and the fun starts after the jump.
2010 Preseason Not Top 30 Prospects
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Every year as I put together my Top 30 Prospects list, I always pay a little extra attention to the players in the last few spots. While elite prospects like Jesus Montero get all the attention, the best way to gauge the depth and strength of a farm system is by looking at the No. 10, or No. 15, or No. 30 prospects. The better those players are, the better the system is overall. Potential superstars are nice, but having waves of young talent coming up bodes much better for future success.
Along those same lines, the players that get shut out of a top prospects list can also tell you about the quality of a system as well. Last year I presented six players that weren’t able to crack the Yanks’ top 30, and sure enough two managed to make the leap into the big boy’s list this year. Two others were among the final cuts as well. That group featured some higher upside kids in the lower levels of the minors, however given the hit the farm system has taken in the last 12 months, the pickin’s were pretty slim this year.
Here’s five players (presented alphabetically) that could work their way into next year’s Top 30 if they continue to improve this season. Ages are as of April 1st of this year.
DeAngelo Mack, OF, 23
The Yanks’ 13th round pick last year, Mack dominated younger competition in the NY-Penn League after signing. He hit .306-.372-.513 with 30 extra base hits in 66 games, good for second in the league. By no means is he a spring chicken, but Mack made major strides with his approach as a redshirt junior at South Carolina in 2009. He’s strong enough to hit balls with authority the other way, and he does a good job of being what they call “aggressively patient” (he waits for his pitch, but he’ll jump all over something he likes early in the count). Mack has good baseball skills and athleticism, though he projects best in a corner outfield spot. He could end up being a classic ‘tweener; not enough defense for center, not enough pop for a corner (despite this). He’ll jump to Low-A Charleston to start the season, but should get a bump at mid-season if he’s performing well.
Photo Credit: Rich Glickstein, AP
Melky Mesa, OF, 23
Despite sharing a name, this Melky has almost nothing in common with the departed Melky Cabrera other than his arm strength. Mesa hit .270-.338-.491 with 17 bombs in the season’s first three months last year, though he slumped so badly in the second half that he finished the year with a .225-.309-.423 batting line and 20 homers. He also struck out 168 times in 564 plate appearances, pushing his career total to 306 K in 1,020 PA. Even at his age, Mesa is raw in terms of baseball skills, though he possesses tremendous physical gifts. His insane bat speed leads to huge raw power, among the best in the system, and his top of the line speed is a weapon both on the bases and in the outfield, where he’s a passable centerfielder but an elite rightfielder defensively. Of course, the biggest question mark is Mesa’s ability to make consistent contact, which is kind of a big problem. If he ever improves his approach and learns how to get the bat on the ball with regularity, he’d vault right up the ladder and become a truly elite prospect. Mesa will patrol the outfield for High-A Tampa next season.
Photo Credit: Mike Ashmore
Jimmy Paredes, 2B, 21
The speedy Paredes has been one of the system’s bigger sleepers since signing a few years back, but it wasn’t until he received regular playing time with Short Season Staten Island in 2009 that he started to live up to some of that promise. His .302-.336-.410 batting line isn’t eye popping, but his batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS improved every month of the season, as did his slugging percentage minus a slight hiccup in August. Paredes’ best tool is his blazing speed, which allowed him to steal 23 bases in just 54 games, and he’s also versatile enough to play the three non-first base infield spots proficiently. He profiles best at second, where he’ll play every day for Low-A Charleston in 2010.
Photo Credit: Hilton Flores, Staten Island Advance
Jon Ortiz, RHRP, 24
By no means is Ortiz young, but he’s steadily climbing the ladder and will begin the 2010 season with Double-A Trenton. Once a guy reaches Double-A, you can start talking about him as a potential big league contributor. Just ask Chase Wright. Ortiz isn’t a huge stuff guy – he works in the low-90’s with a very good changeup – but he makes up for it with outstanding command and control (273-39 K/BB ratio in 201.1 career IP). The Yankees have built a steady pipeline of relievers in recent years, and Ortiz is just another product of that. Remember, you don’t have to turn into a star to be considered a success. There’s plenty of value in getting 80 or so league average innings out of a guy like Ortiz, who was basically an afterthought when he signed.
Photo Credit: Screen cap’d from here
Gary Sanchez, C, 17
The comparisons to Montero are inevitable, however they aren’t similar players at all. Sanchez can legitimately remain behind the plate long term, and his bat isn’t nearly as good. That’s not meant as a knock on Sanchez, who projects to be a better than league average hitter with very good power for a backstop. He’s raw, which is not unexpected given his age, and like Montero he struggled in his first taste of instructional league. Once he gets some innings under his belt and makes his way to the States, Sanchez will jump comfortable into the team’s top ten prospects. Until then, he’s on the outside looking in. His 2010 season will start in Extended Spring Training before officially debuting with the Rookie Level Gulf Coast League Yankees in June.
Photo Credit: Jorge Arangure, ESPN
Unlike last year, most of these guys are older prospects who project more as role players than starters on a contender, but that’s life. The Yanks’ system isn’t as deep as it was just a year ago, but with a few breakouts from players like the five mentioned above, they’ll be just fine. Remember, the Yanks’ goal isn’t to have a great system, it’s to win at the big league level, and they don’t exactly need any fixes at the moment.
Make sure you check back in tomorrow for the full fledged Top 30.
Baseball America names decade’s top prospects
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Baseball America might be a few weeks late on this one. After all, the decade’s been over for almost a month now, and we covered the the Yankees’ decade a few weeks ago. But the prospect publication just released their decade retrospective, and as you can see, the Yanks’ list is as expected. In fact, it looks awfully similar to Mike’s list.
The biggest omission in the BA list, in my opinion, is Phil Hughes. At no point in the decade would I have taken Marcus Thames over Phil Hughes, and I’d probably opt for Hughes over Melky — a BA prospect just once all decade — and Dioner Navarro who never lived up to the hype.
As Mike noted in December, after the ten guys listed here, the Yanks system didn’t produce much of lasting value this decade. Phil Coke is a useful, if average, player, and David Robertson stands to be a key cog in the bullpen in 2010. Ian Kennedy could still emerge as an adequate Major Leaguer.
The misses are nearly as compelling as the hits though. Amongst David Parrish, Jon Poterson — the comp pick for Andy Pettitte in 2004 — Drew Henson, C.J. Henry and Eric Duncan, the Yanks had some spectacularly hyped prospects and high draft picks who just didn’t come through. Such were the way of things mid-decade.
In the end, the Yanks had a pretty unbalanced decade prospect-wise. They started the 2000’s at the top of the list and stayed in the top 10 until an epic mid-decade collapse. Only recently have their rebounded, but with a few trades this winter, the system has been depleted. Right now, the Yanks have a solid Major League club, some high-ceiling young kids and Jesus Montero. If all goes according to plan, he’ll front this list when it comes around again in ten years.
Added to by Mike: I completely forgot about Westbrook, which is why he was omitted from my list. I would have placed him third, behind Soriano and Cano. As I explained in my post, Joba is far and away the team’s best draft pick of the last ten years, and frankly it’s not even close. He has more than double the WAR of the next closest player despite spending just over two years in the bigs.
As for the worst pick, yeah Henry flamed out in glorious fashion, but a guy with his athleticism and raw skills at a premium position is a legit first round pick. It didn’t work out, but that doesn’t make it a bad pick in my book. Poterson, on the other hand, was awful because he was such an overdraft. In all seriousness, they could have gotten him in the 5th or 6th round if they hadn’t taken him in the first.
As you can see from BA’s fancy little chart, the system was completely in the dumps for a good chunk of the decade. You can’t have a system that bad for one particular reason, it takes a group effort; the team forfeited so many picks over the years to sign free agents, and for quite some time they adhered to slot and drafted low-ceiling college players with their top picks. They weren’t always willing to pay for premium young talent, and it wasn’t until Brian Cashman fired scouting director Lin Garrett and put Damon Oppenheimer and his people in place in 2005 that things started to turn around.
KLaw’s Top 100 Prospects List
Posted by: | CommentsKeith Law posted his list of the game’s top 100 prospects today (it’s all behind the Insider wall, unfortunately). with two Yankee farmhands making the cut: Jesus Montero at #10, and Manny Banuelos at #96. “Montero’s ticket to the big leagues is his bat,” says KLaw, “and his hitting style is similar to that of another big guy who spent a lot of his career at DH: Frank Thomas.” Frank Thomas was good at hitting baseballs, in case you didn’t already know. As for Banuelos, he says his ceiling is “probably just a No. 3 or No. 4 starter, but given his youth and feel he’s got a good chance to get there.”
Arodys Vizcaino cracked the list at #43 (“… potential as a front-line starter”) while Austin Jackson came in at #70 (“… upside keeps dropping as he moves up the ladder”). Old buddy Jose Tabata also cracked the list as #57 (“… dwindling chance to be an impact player”). It’s a good sign that the Yanks’ system has produced five top 100 talents, even though only two of them remain with the organization.
KLaw also posted his top ten prospects by organization, and the Yanks’ list is made up of the usual suspects: Montero, Banuelos, Zach McAllister, Austin Romine, etc. Might as well mention that MLB.com’s top 50 list came out last night, and Montero ranked 19th overall. That’ll be the lowest you see him ranked all offseason.
Frankie Piliere’s Top 100 Prospects
Posted by: | CommentsFrankie Piliere of AOL FanHouse posted his list of the top 100 prospects today (part one and two), with Jesus Montero coming at number five behind a bunch of guys you’ve surely heard of. “Much debate surrounds Montero’s ability to stick behind the plate,” says Piliere, “but the bat is going to be special. He has a potential 40-homer bat with the offensive upside of Miguel Cabrera.” Sounds good to me.
Three other Yankee prospects made the list: Manny Banuelos at #41 (“…with a 90-93 mph fastball and the potential for two plus secondary pitches, this smallish lefty has the upside of a No. 2 starter”), Austin Romine at #45 (“…has the potential to be a potent offensive threat and an above-average defender behind the plate”), and Zach McAllister at #76. Old pals Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata checked in at #25 and #69, respectively.
Minor Notes: Montero, Vizcaino
Posted by: | CommentsGot a few minor league nuggets worth passing along this afternoon, so let’s get to it…
- John Sickels at Minor League Ball posted some excerpts of player write-ups from his book today, and Jesus Montero was one of the lucky few. You might fool him once,” says Sickels, “but don’t try the same trick too soon or he’ll make you pay. I have absolutely no doubts about Montero’s bat.”
- Meanwhile, the crew at Project Prospect posted their list of the ten best prospects in the game, and Montero checks in at number three. Jason Heyward tops the list, and is followed by Desmond Jennings of the Rays. Montero is one spot ahead of Stephen Strasburg, who I consider to be the very best prospect in the game. Either way, this is elite company we’re talking here.
- Last, but certainly not least, Kevin Goldstein released his top eleven Braves’ prospects today. Former Yankee farmhand Arodys Vizcaino ranks third behind Heyward and Julio Teheran. Somehow he managed to go from a four star prospect with the Yanks to a five star prospect with the Braves in less than a month. Go figure.




