Luis Severino, Aaron Judge top MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospects list

Severino and Judge, yet again. (Presswire)
Severino and Judge, yet again. (Presswire)

As part of their look at the best minor league prospects in each organization, the crew at MLB.com published their list of the top 30 Yankees prospects earlier this week. Jim Callis also compiled some notes and scouting grades in a supplemental piece. As always, MLB.com’s info — the list, scouting reports, video, etc. — is all free. It’s great.

Predictably, RHP Luis Severino and OF Aaron Judge claim the top two spots, in that order. Severino is No. 1 on MLB.com’s and Baseball America’s lists while Judge is atop Keith Law’s, Baseball Prospectus’, and my top Yankees prospects lists. I guess Judge wins. SS Jorge Mateo, 1B Greg Bird, and 2B Rob Refsnyder round out the top five on MLB.com’s list.

You can click through to see the full top 30 for yourself. MLB.com included two of last year’s international signings and ranked them pretty highly as well — OF Juan DeLeon and SS Dermis Garcia ranks 15th and 16th, respectively. They also ranked four other players who didn’t make my top 30: RHP Rookie Davis (No. 24), UTIL Jose Pirela (No. 25), 2B Gosuke Katoh (No. 28), and RHP Domingo Acevedo (No. 30).

The 21-year-old Acevedo was one of my five prospects to watch heading into the 2014 season and the MLB.com scouting report is pretty glowing:

In his limited game action, Acevedo hit 100 mph and worked at 95-97 mph. He also has an advanced changeup and some feel for spinning the ball, though he’s still trying to find a comfortable grip for his slider. His command is work in progress, though he does a decent job of throwing strikes.

Between his velocity and his size — he’s 6-foot-7 and carries maybe 50 pounds more than his listed 190 — Acevedo presents an extremely intimidating figure on the mound. He’ll have frontline starter stuff if he can develop a good breaking ball, and he’s still a potential closer if he doesn’t.

Acevedo is older than most international prospects — he signed as an 18-year-old in October 2012 — but they don’t check IDs on the mound. If he continues to show big stuff and gets people out, the Yankees won’t care if he makes his MLB debut at 23 or 26. The 2015 season will be an important one when it comes to determining if Acevedo is one of the team’s top prospects going forward or just a tease.

MLB.com’s list essentially wraps up prospect ranking season. The Yankees have a middle of the road farm system that is on the rise thanks mostly to last summer’s international spending spree. Severino and Judge are high-end prospects while others like Bird and Jacob Lindgren look like high-probability big leaguers. The Yankees focused on youth this winter and that means we should expect to see a few of these guys get an opportunity at the MLB level in the next year or two. That’s exciting.

email

Severino and Judge crack Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list

Severino and Judge, yet again. (Presswire)
Severino and Judge, yet again. (Presswire)

On Thursday night, Baseball America released their annual top 100 prospects list during a live MLB Network broadcast. Cubs 3B Kris Bryant claimed the top spot and was followed in order by Twins OF Byron Buxton, Cubs SS Addison Russell, Astros SS Carlos Correa, and Dodgers SS Corey Seager. The full top 100 can be seen right here.

The Yankees landed two players in the top 100 and they’re two players you expect: RHP Luis Severino ranks 35th and OF Aaron Judge ranks 53rd. Interestingly enough, Baseball America ranked Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada tenth during the television broadcast, but he isn’t on their online list. I can’t remember them ever ranking an unsigned player before.

Anyway, in the subscriber-only report, Baseball America gave Severino a 70 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) for both his fastball and changeup. He received a 60 for his control and a 50 for his slider. (50 is average, 60 is above-average, 70 is well-above-average.) Judge received a 70 for power, a 55 for his arm, and 50s for his hit tool, speed, and defense. Five average or better tools is really, really good.

Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com ranked Judge as the 23rd, 49th, and 68th best prospect in baseball, respectively. Those three plus Baseball America’s ranking average out to 48th overall. Severino was ranked 23rd by MLB.com and 51st by Baseball Prospectus. (He didn’t make Law’s.) Those two rankings plus Baseball America’s average out to 36th overall. Two consensus top 50 prospects ain’t bad at all.

Update: In a supplemental piece, J.J. Cooper said 1B Greg Bird didn’t miss the top 100 by much.

2015 Preseason Not Top 30 Prospects

Palma. (MiLB.com)
Palma. (MiLB.com)

Tomorrow is a pretty big day in Yankeeland. Pitchers and catchers are set to officially report to Spring Training, that’s always fun, plus Joe Girardi will hold his annual start of camp press conference. He’s got a new look roster and a returning Alex Rodriguez to discuss. Tomorrow is also RAB’s eighth birthday, and that’s sorta neat.

But, most importantly, tomorrow I will post my annual Top 30 Prospects List, which is both an awful lot of work and something I enjoy compiling each year. Before we get to the Top 30 though, we have to look at the Not Top 30 Prospects. These are five players on the outside of this year’s Top 30 who I think have a chance to make the jump into next year’s Top 30.

Only one of last year’s Not Top 30 Prospects climbed into the actual Top 30 this year, and I’ve learned over the years that one out of five ain’t all that bad when it comes to this stuff. As a reminder, these are not prospects 31-35. They’re just five guys listed alphabetically who I think could be Top 30 caliber prospects after another season of development. Got it? Good. Let’s get to it.

RHP Simon De La Rosa
Signed out the Dominican Republic for only $50,000 back in October 2012, De La Rosa spent 2013 in the Dominican Summer League and last year in the rookie Gulf Coast League, where he had a 4.43 ERA (3.81 FIP) with 28.0 K% and 13.2 BB% in 42.2 innings. De La Rosa is a big and lanky kid at 6-foot-3 and 185 lbs., and he already sports three pitches in his low-to-mid-90s heater, tight curveball, and promising changeup. The curveball is his money pitch. As the walk rate suggests, he needs to work on his location. De La Rosa is older than the typical international prospect in rookie ball — he turns 22 in mid-May — but he has bat-missing stuff and just needs to improve his control more than anything. Obviously that’s easier said than done. I think De La Rosa could make the jump to start 2015 with Low-A Charleston. If not, Extended Spring Training and Short Season Staten Island await.

Foley. (Robert Pimpsner)
Foley. (Robert Pimpsner)

RHP Jordan Foley
Foley, 21, was New York’s fifth round pick out of Central Michigan in last summer’s draft ($317,500 bonus). He pitched to a 4.10 ERA (3.26 FIP) with 23.1 K% and 9.4 BB% in 37.1 innings after turning pro last summer, most with Staten Island. Foley is an arm strength guy, sitting in the low-90s and touching 96-97 as a starter. He’ll sit closer to that 96-97 mph range when working out of the bullpen. His second pitch is a low-80s splitter, and he also throws an okay mid-80s slider. Foley, who is listed at 6-foot-4 and 215 lbs., has a pretty substantial head whack in his follow through (video) and it hurts his command. Between the spotty command and the head violence, many expect Foley to wind up in the bullpen long-term. I like him better there too. The Yankees will probably give him a chance to start this coming season if only to accumulate innings. If they stick him in the bullpen full-time, he could be an MLB option as soon as the second half of 2016. Low-A Charleston is in the cards this coming season.

OF Dustin Fowler
The Yankees grabbed Fowler in the 18th round of the 2013 draft and got him to turn pro with an above-slot $278,000 bonus. He was a multi-sport guy in high school, playing football and wrestling in addition to playing baseball. Fowler is a pure tools guy who has shown quite a bit of improvement since signing, and his .257/.292/.459 (104 wRC+) batting line with nine homers, 19.5 K%, and 4.8 BB% in 66 games with the River Dogs last year sums up his game well. He has power — Fowler is a lefty swinger listed at 6-foot-0 and 185 lbs. — but doesn’t know the strike zone well and can be over-aggressive. His above-average speed doesn’t show up in the stolen base total (three in five attempts) but he can run. Fowler’s a project. He has a lot of physical ability and just needs to learn how to turn it into baseball tools. Chances are he will return to Low-A Charleston to begin the 2015 season.

Montgomery. (Post and Courier)
Montgomery. (Post and Courier)

LHP Jordan Montgomery
The 22-year-old Montgomery spent three years in South Carolina’s rotation and has a track record of performing well against high-caliber college competition. The Yankees signed him for $424,000 as their fourth round pick last season and Montgomery put up a 3.79 ERA (2.30 FIP) with 25.3 K% and 7.6 BB% in only 19 innings after turning pro. Montgomery has the prototypical workhorse frame at 6-foot-4 and 225 lbs., and he’s a four-pitch guy with an 89-92 mph fastball, a low-80s changeup, a slow upper-70s curveball, and a show-me cutter I’m sure the Yankees will work to improve. They love their cutters. Montgomery’s stuff all plays up because he locates well and has very good feel for his craft. It’s a boring profile but there’s potential here. He’s cut from the David Phelps/Adam Warren cloth. After three years in the SEC, Montgomery figures to start next year with High-A Tampa.

OF Alex Palma
Palma signed out of Venezuela for $800,000 in July 2012 and played in the GCL last year after spending 2013 in the Dominican Summer League. He performed very well last summer, hitting .305/.318/.451 (118 wRC+) with four homers, nine steals, 6.8 K%, and 1.4 BB% in 220 plate appearances. The strikeout and walk rates are evidence of how easily he makes contact, but he’s not a slash hitter. Palma is listed at 6-foot-0 and 201 lbs. and he has raw power, mostly to the pull side as a right-handed hitter. He’s a good athlete and a sound defensive outfielder with a strong arm who fits best in right field. Palma is close to maxed out physically even though he is only 19, but his raw tools right now are plenty good enough. As soon as he learns he doesn’t have to swing at a pitch just because he can reach it, Palma should rocket up prospects lists. I expect him to start the season in Extended Spring Training before joining either Staten Island or the organization’s new rookie ball affiliate in Pulaski.

Yankees land seven players on FanGraphs’ top 200 prospects list

Bird. (Presswire)
Bird. (Presswire)

Over at FanGraphs yesterday, Kiley McDaniel posted his list of the top 200 — not the top 100, the top 200 (!) — prospects in baseball heading into the 2015 season. Cubs 3B Kris Bryant claims the top spot and is followed by Twins OF Byron Buxton and Cubs SS Addison Russell in the top three. At this point, it’s clear Bryant is the consensus top prospect in baseball with Buxton, last year’s No. 1, right behind him.

The Yankees landed seven players in the top 200. Here’s the list with a short quote from McDaniel’s write-up:

  • RHP Luis Severino (No. 26): “He’s quickly improved and developed starter traits, but on certain days the stuff, command and delivery may all look more like a reliever.”
  • OF Aaron Judge (No. 58): “He’ll be 23 in Double-A next year and that will give us a better idea of if he’s a solid everyday guy or a potential star, but there’s clearly more here than people were expecting.”
  • LHP Jacob Lindgren (No. 100): “(He’s) now knocking on the door of the big leagues with closer level stuff and just enough of the feel from his starter days to spot his hellacious slider where he wants it.”
  • SS Jorge Mateo (No. 102): “(He) has top-of-the-scale 80 speed, has the tools to stick at shortstop, has surprising pop and was hanging with pitches three or four years older than him.”
  • 1B Greg Bird (No. 120): “Bird has plus power and good plate discipline, with some comparing him to a non-injury-prone Nick Johnson.”
  • LHP Ian Clarkin (No. 137): “His velocity has settled near the high end of where it was pre-draft and his above average to plus curveball is still the separator, with his changeup and command making good progress.”

2B Rob Refsnyder is the seventh prospect, but the bottom 58 players of the top 200 are not ranked and are instead listed as honorable mentions, basically. It’s kinda interesting McDaniel ranked Bird as the team’s third best prospect behind Severino and Lindgren last month, but now he’s fifth behind Severino, Judge, Lindgren, and Mateo. Eh, whatever.

I’m biased, so what the hell do I know, but I find it very hard to believe there are 200 prospects in the minors right now better than C Gary Sanchez. I get people are down on him, but a catcher with his arm and that much offensive upside is a pretty valuable prospect. Especially when they’ve had success at Double-A before their 22nd birthday. Not top 100? Okay. But not top 200? C’mon now.

Links: Tickets, Pace of Play, Trades, Travel, Hensley, Ichiro

I'm sick of the offseason too, Brett. (Presswire)
I’m sick of the offseason too, Brett. (Presswire)

Got a whole bunch of random links and notes to pass along, some more important than others. Here’s the latest:

Single game tickets on sale February 24th

Individual game tickets for the 2015 regular season go on sale online on Tuesday, February 24th at 10am ET, the Yankees announced. The Mastercard pre-sale runs from February 18th through the 23rd. You can walk up to the ticket window to purchase tickets starting February 25th. All the details are right here.

MLB, MLBPA making progress on pace of play changes

According to Jon Morosi, MLB and MLBPA are making progress towards rule modifications to speed up the pace of play, and they should have an agreement in place before Spring Training. Teams and players are going to want any changes in place relatively soon so they have all spring to adjust.

It’s unlikely a pitch clock will be added or hitters will be forced to keep at least one foot in the box, says Morosi. It’s more likely both sides will be required to begin play as soon as the television broadcast returns from commercial breaks. That’ll shave, what, a minute or two off each game? It’s something. MLB and MLBPA are expected to continue to look into speeding up games going forward.

Yankees settle all outstanding trades with cash

This stuff is easy to forget about, but the Yankees had several outstanding “player to be named or cash” trades to finalize this offseason. Specifically, they owed a player or cash to the Diamondbacks for Martin Prado, the Athletics for Jeff Francis, and the Indians for Josh Outman. Chad Jennings confirmed all of those trades were settled with cash this offseason, not a player. So there you have it.

2015 travel map

Yankees to travel 29,137 miles in 2015

Over at the indispensable Baseball Savant, Daren Willman posted travel maps for all 30 clubs for the upcoming 2015 season. The Yankees are set to travel 29,137 miles this summer, which is exactly middle of the road — 15th most out of the 30 teams. That is up slightly from 28,001 miles last year. The isolated Mariners will again travel the most miles this year (43,281) while the Reds will travel the fewest (20,612). Usually a more centrally located team like the Royals or Cardinals travels the fewest miles. Lucky for the Reds, I guess.

Preliminary hearing for Hensley attacker set for May

A preliminary hearing for Anthony Morales, the man who allegedly attacked RHP Ty Hensley over the holidays, has been set for May according to Brendan Kuty. Morales has been charged with felony aggravated assault and battery after attacking Hensley following an argument about signing bonuses. Hensley reportedly wouldn’t tell Morales, an ex-college football player who was in training camp with the Carolina Panthers last year, the size of his signing bonus, which is easily Googleable. Hensley suffered multiple facial fractures and lost a tooth in the attack but did not suffer a concussion or other neurological damage. He has resumed throwing bullpens even though his jaw had to be wired shut.

Minor League Ball’s top 20 Yankees prospects

Over at Minor League Ball, John Sickels posted his annual top 20 Yankees prospects list. RHP Luis Severino and OF Aaron Judge predictably claim the top two spots and both received “B+/Borderline A-” grades. “While the Yankees farm system is not at the very top of the organization rankings, it has improved over the last couple of years, should continue to improve, and certainly rates as an upper-tier system,” wrote Sickels. “The large amount of Grade C+ talent gives depth and since much of that talent is quite young and projectable with potentially higher grades to come, there is a lot to look forward to.”

(MLB.com)
(MLB.com)

Ichiro‘s been looking for “enthusiasm” the last two years

A few weeks ago Ichiro Suzuki joined the Marlins on a one-year contract worth $2M. He’ll serve as the fourth outfielder behind a young group that includes Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna in addition to Giancarlo Stanton. At his introductory press conference, Ichiro told Jim Armstrong he felt “incredible enthusiasm” when meeting with the team, “so I wanted to respond to their enthusiasm and I believe that is something I have been looking for the last two years.”

So there’s a very subtle little jab at the Yankees there. Remember, at the end of last season, Ichiro cryptically told reporters that “obviously there’s a lot of things that go on that the fans and the media can’t see, that goes on inside (the clubhouse), but what I can say is that the experiences I had this year, those experiences are going to help me in the future.” Eh, whatever. Seems like Ichiro holds a bit of a grudge against the Yankees for whatever reason — dropping him into a fourth outfielder role last year? — but that’s in the past now. Onwards and upwards.

Judge and Severino make Baseball Prospectus’ top 101 prospects

Severino and Judge, again. (Presswire)
Severino and Judge, again. (Presswire)

Earlier today, Baseball Prospectus released their list of the top 101 prospects in baseball heading into the 2015 season. The list is free but the scouting reports are behind the pay wall. Twins OF Byron Buxton sits in the top spot and is followed by Cubs SS Addison Russell and Astros SS Carlos Correa in the top three. Cubs 3B Kris Bryant ranks fifth, the lowest you’ll see him on a top 100 list this spring.

The Yankees have two players in the top 101 and they’re just about side-by-side in the rankings: OF Aaron Judge ranks 49th and RHP Luis Severino ranks 51st. Judge is the 11th outfielder on the list and Severino is the 25th pitcher (19th right-hander) on the list. C Gary Sanchez ranked third on Baseball Prospectus’ top ten Yankees prospects list a few weeks ago but did not make the top 101.

Judge ranked 23rd on Keith Law’s top 100 and 68th on MLB.com’s top 100, so add in Baseball Prospectus and his average ranking this spring has been 47th overall. Severino ranked 23rd on MLB.com’s list but he did not appear on Law’s list. Baseball America is scheduled to release their top 100 prospects list next Thursday and based on everything they’ve written these last few weeks and months, it’s safe to say Severino and Judge will make the list, in that order.

Minor League Notes: Prospect Lists, Just Misses, Palmer

German. (Presswire)
German. (Presswire)

Got a whole bunch of miscellaneous minor league notes and links to pass along, most involving some sort of prospect ranking. Let’s get to it …

Baseball America’s updated top ten lists

Baseball America finished their annual series looking at the top ten prospects in each organization a week or two ago, but, as usual, there were several trades that threw a wrench in the rankings. Earlier this week they released updated top ten lists to reflect all the transactions that went down this offseason. The Yankees’ list is unchanged one through nine, but the recently acquired RHP Domingo German jumps into the tenth spot, bumping 3B Miguel Andujar down. German ranked sixth in the Marlins’ system before the trade, for what it’s worth.

Keith Law’s top ten prospects by position

Two weeks ago, Keith Law released his team top ten prospect lists and overall top 100 list. Last week he posted his top ten prospects by position (subs. req’d) and only two Yankees’ farmhands made the cut: 1B Greg Bird and OF Aaron Judge rank third among first baseman and outfielders, respectively. Bird is behind Mariners 1B D.J. Peterson and Mets 1B Dominic Smith, Judge is behind Twins OF Byron Buxton and Cubs OF Jorge Soler. Law’s really high on Judge, obviously. The most notable omissions are RHP Luis Severino, 2B Rob Refsnyder, and C Gary Sanchez, but I don’t think it is at all unreasonable to say those three are not among the ten best prospects at their positions right now.

MLB.com’s just missed prospects

MLB.com published their top 100 list and top ten prospects by position a few weeks ago, and both Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo followed by writing up their “just misses.” The guys who, well, just missed the top 100 and top ten by position lists. C Gary Sanchez just missed the top 100 (“Though he hasn’t lived up to his $3 million bonus yet, he still has big raw power and a bazooka arm and is only 22.”) and OF Aaron Judge just fell short of the outfield top ten (“There’s a lot more power in his 6-7 frame, too, though I like how he focused on just hitting. The power’s going to come and he fits the RF profile perfectly.”) So Law has Judge as the third best outfield prospect in the game and MLB.com has him outside the top ten. That’s ranking prospects for ya.

Top 100 prospects by ZiPS projections

This is sort of a goofy exercise but I found it interesting. Dan Szymborski ranked the top 100 prospects in baseball using his ZiPS system and their projected mean career WAR (subs. req’d). Needless to say, there are caveats abound with something like this. It’s not meant to be a hardcore analysis. Cubs 3B Kris Bryant sits in the top spot and is followed by Dodgers OF Joc Pederson and Indians SS Francisco Lindor. OF Aaron Judge (48th) and 1B Greg Bird (60th) both make the top 100. No Sanchez or Severino. Ex-Yankees farmhand C/1B Peter O’Brien ranks 99th, interestingly enough.

Palmer suspended 50 games

SS Tyler Palmer, who signed with the Yankees as an undrafted free agent last June, has been suspended 50 games after testing positive for amphetamines and a drug of abuse (second offense). The 22-year-old hit .255/.350/.431 (125 wRC+) in 52 games for the rookie GCL Yanks last year. Palmer was the No. 1 NAIA prospect heading into the draft, according to Baseball America. His back story is pretty interesting: Palmer was the Marlins’ fourth rounder out of high school in 2011 and was set to sign with the team for $600,000, but he suffered severe nerve damage to his throwing arm in a freak broken window accident days before signing the contract, so the Marlins withdrew the offer. Palmer rehabbed, mashed for a season in junior college even though he still hadn’t regained full use of his thumb, then needed another surgery that kept him out of baseball until the spring of 2013.

Yankees sign undrafted free agent Marzi

The Yankees have signed undrafted free agent left-hander Anthony Marzi, according to Dom Amore. Marzi pitched at UConn and had a 3.13 ERA in 299.1 innings across four years. His 217/96 K/BB doesn’t exactly stand out, however. “I couldn’t be happier with the way things worked out, and the organization I’m getting a chance with. I’ve been a Yankees fan all my life. My whole family are Yankees fans, and they’re seriously pumped up,” said Marzi to Amore. He figures to start the season as an extra arm with either Low-A Charleston or High-A Tampa.