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DotF: Dermis Garcia and Isiah Gilliam carry Tampa to a win

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Got some links and notes to pass along:

  • Both RHP Luis Gil (No. 7) and 1B Dermis Garcia (No. 13) made this week’s Prospect Hot Sheet. “Garcia is a bit of a one-tricky pony, but that one trick—massive raw power—sure is fun to watch when a pitch comes right into his swing path,” says the write-up.
  • With Nationals OF Victor Robles having graduated to the big leagues, Baseball America (subs. req’d) updated their top 100 prospects list, and RHP Jonathan Loaisiga now slots in at No. 100. He’s the only Yankee on the list.
  • MLB.com picked each team’s closer of the future. RHP Luis Gil was their pick for the Yankees. “Gil can hit 101 mph with his four-seam fastball and generates crazy spin rates on his power curveball,” says the write-up. Here’s video of Gil’s last outing.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (8-1 loss to Rochester)

  • LF Trey Amburgey: 0-4, 2 K
  • SS Gosuke Katoh: 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 K — five homers in 13 games this year after hitting five homers in 118 games with Trenton last year … I’m kinda glad we’re shutting down RAB before I have to start figuring out what’s real and what’s noise with the MLB ball in Triple-A
  • 1B Ryan McBroom: 1-3, 1 2B
  • LHP Nestor Cortes: 4 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HR, 3/5 GB/FB — 58 of 91 pitches were strikes (64%)
  • LHP Rex Brothers: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 2 WP, 0/2 GB/FB — 20 of 37 pitches were strikes (54%) … 10/4 K/BB in seven innings, which is better than I would’ve guessed

[Read more…]

12 Years of Prospect Watching at RAB

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Montero. (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

In six days, we are closing down RAB after covering the Yankees top to bottom for more than 12 years. It was quite a ride. Lot of fun, but also a lot of work, and now that the work outweighs the fun, it’s time to move on. RAB experienced a World Series championship and many really cool moments. I’m grateful.

The RAB era also covered countless minor league prospects. Most of them flamed out, because that’s what prospects do, but a select few broke out and became big league players. Some even did so with the Yankees. I’ve been posting my annual top 30 prospects list since 2007. That’s a lot of words on players who didn’t make it.

I’d say that, for the majority of RAB’s existence, the Yankees were labeled a poor player development team. It wasn’t until recently that they shed that label, but you know what? The Yankees lead baseball in WAR produced by homegrown players since RAB launched in 2007. From the Baseball Gauge:

  1. Yankees: +193.2 WAR
  2. Diamondbacks: +191.6 WAR
  3. Red Sox: +191.0 WAR
  4. Reds: +176.0 WAR
  5. Rockies: +170.3 WAR

Baseball America puts out organizational top 30 prospects lists each year and the Yankees have had 55 different top 30 prospects reach the big leagues since 2007, ten more than any other team. They also lead baseball in pitching WAR from the farm system at +119.6 during that time. The Dodgers are a distant second at +96.7 WAR on the pitching side. Bet you wouldn’t have guessed that.

We’ve already looked at what I consider the five most memorable games of the RAB era. Now let’s dip into the minor league scene and recap the last 12+ years in the farm system. Come with me, won’t you?

All-Time RAB No. 1 Prospects
2007: RHP Phil Hughes
2008: RHP Joba Chamberlain
2009: OF Austin Jackson
2010: C Jesus Montero
2011: C Jesus Montero
2012: LHP Manny Banuelos
2013: C Gary Sanchez
2014: C Gary Sanchez
2015: OF Aaron Judge
2016: OF Aaron Judge
2017: IF Gleyber Torres
2018: IF Gleyber Torres
2019: OF Estevan Florial

All-Time RAB No. 30 Prospects
2007: 1B Juan Miranda
2008: RHP Edwar Ramirez
2009: RHP Steven Jackson
2010: RHP Dellin Betances
2011: RHP Craig Heyer
2012: RHP Chase Whitley
2013: LHP Dan Camarena
2014: LHP Cesar Cabral
2015: OF Slade Heathcott
2016: RHP Austin DeCarr
2017: OF Leonardo Molina
2018: RHP Alex Vargas
2019: 1B/3B Dermis Garcia

All-Time RAB No. 10 Prospects
2007: RHP Kevin Whelan
2008: RHP Dellin Betances
2009: LHP Phil Coke
2010: RHP Jose Ramirez
2011: RHP Adam Warren
2012: CF Ravel Santana
2013: RHP Mark Montgomery
2014: LHP Manny Banuelos
2015: 1B/OF Tyler Austin
2016: C Luis Torrens
2017: SS Tyler Wade
2018: SS Thairo Estrada
2019: RHP Luis Medina

Rank prospects long enough and certain spots develop a personality. The No. 1 spot is the top guy, obviously. The No. 10 spot is where you put that second (or sometimes third) tier prospect you feel strongly about. There is a most definitely a difference between being the No. 10 prospect and No. 11 prospect in the organization. I can’t really explain it. When you’re in the top ten, you’re legit. Things start to feel a little iffy after that. Also, the No. 30 spot is usually a choice between several players, none of them great. That spot tends to go to a personal favorite. Maybe the guy with the best chance to be a big leaguer, though not necessarily become a great player.

With the exception of Florial, my most recent No. 1 prospect and still a baseball baby, every one of my No. 1 prospects reached the big leagues. I’m not trying to gloat. The No. 1 guy is usually the easiest to rank. Relative to other prospect rankers, I think I stick to my guns a little more. Plenty of folks jumped off the Sanchez bandwagon in 2014 and many shied away from Judge in 2017. Development is not linear. Gotta give these kids a chance to experience failure and adjust before pulling the plug.

I’m more proud that ten of my No. 10 prospects and seven of my No. 30 prospects reached the big leagues than I am that all of my No. 1 prospects reached the show (save Florial). More than half my No. 30 guys made it! Betances obviously went on to have a significant MLB career, though he also bounced around my rankings for a better part of a decade. Without checking, I have to think Dellin appeared on more RAB top 30 prospects lists than any other player. I ranked him every year from 2007-14 (!).

Anyway, Edwar Ramirez spent a few years in the show, Miranda and Jackson had cups of coffee, Cabral kept getting looks, and Heathcott did this …

… and that was pretty cool. Hughes and Chamberlain helped the Yankees win a World Series title in 2009. Sanchez, Judge, and Torres (and Florial?) will hopefully be part of the next World Series winning Yankees team. As much fun as the highly regarded prospects are — and believe me, they are a blast — there is a certain pleasure in watching those lower ranked prospects reach the big leagues after following their careers and blogging about it along the way.

Ten Best Prospects

  1. 2011 Jesus Montero
  2. 2017 Gleyber Torres
  3. 2008 Joba Chamberlain
  4. 2007 Phil Hughes
  5. 2013 Gary Sanchez
  6. 2016 Aaron Judge
  7. 2015 Luis Severino
  8. 2012 Manny Banuelos
  9. 2017 Clint Frazier
  10. 2007 Jose Tabata

The best prospect and the best player are not necessarily the same thing. Sometimes a prospect who flashes all the right tools and skills doesn’t pan out. Example: Jesus Montero. He was an out of this world great prospect, so much so that this cursed image exists in our gallery:

You can thank Baseball America for that. At his prospect peak in 2011, Montero was lauded as a hitting savant and he’d drawn Frank Thomas comps. He was such a good prospect that if I elected to use multiple years of the same player in these rankings, it would be 2011 Montero in the top spot and 2010 Montero in the second spot. You could dream on his easy opposite field power for days. To wit:

Obviously it never worked out. The Yankees traded Montero during the 2011-12 offseason and he pretty much ate his way out of the big leagues. He turns 30 later this year and seems to be out of baseball after hitting .273/.349/.382 in the Mexico last year.

In terms of pure hype, I think 2007 Hughes takes the cake. Back in those days top pitching prospects received so much hype because not enough people were factoring in attrition and injury rates. These days the prospect world does a much better job of baking risk into the cake, and thus top position players prospects tend to be ranked above top pitching prospects. Hughes didn’t live up to the prospect hype, but he spent more than a decade in the big leagues as a league average starter/really good reliever, and that’s not nothing.

Joba at his prospect peak was better than Hughes at his prospect peak and maybe he was more hyped. He did have that insane run in 2007, remember. Chamberlain was the better prospect because he had a better fastball and because his secondary stuff was just vicious. RAB came into its own during the “Joba should start!” internet wars and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t still curious to know what would’ve happened had the Yankees not jerked him around. That said, Joba did himself no favors by reporting to Spring Training out of shape multiple times.

Anyway, Judge is the best player to come out of the farm system on a rate basis since RAB launched — Robinson Cano debuted before RAB and Brett Gardner has accumulated the most WAR among homegrown Yankees during the RAB era, though Judge has him beat on a per plate appearance basis — but prospect rankers always seemed to keep him at arm’s length because he’s so big and had extreme swing-and-miss tendencies. In hindsight, Baseball America’s top 100 list in 2017 is a hoot:

86. SS Delvin Perez, Cardinals
87. RHP James Kaprielian, Yankees
88. LHP Anthony Banda, Diamondbacks
89. RHP Tyler Beede, Giants
90. OF Aaron Judge, Yankees

That said, ranking Judge cautiously was not unreasonable at the time. Sanchez and Torres had more prospect hype at their peaks because they were up-the-middle players with loud tools. Sanchez basically projected to be a Judge-type hitter at catcher whereas Gleyber had a high-end all-around game and plenty of baseball smarts. Judge is very much a hindsight prospect. If everyone had known what they know now, he would’ve been a top three pick in the draft and the game’s top prospect. During his prospect days though, he was difficult to project.

The final two spots in that top ten are difficult to pin down. 2008 Ian Kennedy and 2013 Mason Williams belong in that conversation, as does 2018 Justus Sheffield. I think Frazier and Tabata are the right guys for the last two spots. Clint had the pedigree as the former high draft pick and Tabata, gosh, it’s easy to forget just how highly regarded he was back in the day. He was a consensus top 30 global prospect who reached Double-A at 19 and Triple-A at 20. Tabata back then is what people wish Florial is now.

Five Biggest Busts

  1. C Jesus Montero
  2. RHP Andrew Brackman
  3. OF Jose Tabata
  4. OF Mason Williams
  5. OF Slade Heathcott

I don’t like dwelling on busts because many times flaming out is treated as a character flaw when it really just boils down to Major League Baseball being extremely difficult, and also players getting hurt sometimes. Montero’s and Tabata’s approaches were not as advanced as they appeared in the minors, Williams and Heathcott had trouble staying healthy, and Brackman was an inexperienced two-sport guy who never could figure out a delivery at his size (6-foot-10). Meh. Some guys make it, most don’t. Learn from the ranking mistakes and move on.

Five Personal Favorites

  1. 3B Miguel Andujar
  2. RHP Ross Ohlendorf
  3. 3B Marcos Vechionacci
  4. RHP Jose Ramirez
  5. RHP Graham Stoneburner

Like everyone else, I develop personal favorites while following the farm system, and sometimes there’s no good reason why it happens either. You fall in love with so many prospects over the years and, given the nature of the beast, most of them never make it, so when one of them turns into Andujar, it feels like a million bucks. I loved (and still love) his insane bat-to-ball stills, his ability to hit anything anywhere, his power potential, and his energy and love for the game. Let’s watch some Andujar highlights, shall we? I miss watching him play.

I was a big Ohlendorf guy. I even bought an OHLENDORF 39 shirt. True story. His fastball moved all over the place (but apparently it didn’t have as much velocity as remember based on the pitch tracking data) and his slider was promising, plus he was a smart dude with a knack for making adjustments. Guys like Ramirez and Stoneburner stood out during their prospect days but would be a dime-a-dozen now. Oh, you throw 96-98 mph with a sharp slider and no command? Get in line.

Vechionacci was pretty much the opposite of Andujar. He could play the hell out of third base but he couldn’t hit much. I kept waiting and waiting and waiting for that big breakout year at the plate and it never came. It wasn’t until his fourth season with Double-A Trenton that he slugged better than .370 while playing at least 100 games. I fell in love with more random prospects over the years than I could possibly count (I thought Ramon Flores would be Michael Brantley, basically), but Andujar is easily at the top of this list for me. He’s in his own tier. After covering the system for 12+ years, sending RAB out with this group of homegrown players is pretty rad.

Saturday Links: Opener, Farm System Rankings, Rule Changes

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If Drew Hutchison starts a game this year, the Yankees better use an opener. (Presswire)

The Yankees will continue their Grapefruit League season with a road game against the Pirates this afternoon. Alas, it will not be televised. We haven’t seen the Yankees play since Monday. Fortunately, every game from tomorrow through next Saturday will be televised live. Hooray for that. Here are some notes to check out.

Boone doesn’t rule out using an opener

According to George King, Aaron Boone is willing to use an opener this year, though it doesn’t sound like he’s in a rush to do it. “I can see a scenario. Look, if we are healthy and have perfect health, you don’t envision that. I could see a handful of times where it could potentially be in play for us,” he said. Jonathan Holder started a game against the Rays last September 24th, though that was more of a traditional bullpen game than an opener situation.

The opener is a smart baseball strategy but also hideous to watch given all the pitching changes. For the Yankees, CC Sabathia is their best opener candidate, though he has a long warm-up routine related to his knee and that might not translate well to the bullpen. There’s no reason to use an opener for Luis Severino or James Paxton, which leaves Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ. I think the Yankees should leave the five starters alone and only use an opener for sixth starter types like Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga. That’s the way to go.

Yankees rank 12th in BP’s farm system rankings

Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) posted their annual farm system rankings last week and, like Baseball America and Keith Law, they ranked the Padres and Rays as the top two systems in the game, in that order. They have the Yankees 12th, higher than Law (19th) and Baseball America (20th), probably because BP’s lists always skew toward upside. Here is the Baseball Prospectus blurb:

The Yankees are in transition. They have their usual supply of diamond-in-the-rough pitching finds and toolsy IFAs, but haven’t turned this batch into their next generation of top prospects yet. And they traded two of their last generation for James Paxton. I’d expect them to be back among the top systems by next year’s org rankings.

This is not the first time we’ve heard the “I’d expect them to be back among the top systems by next year’s org rankings” thing this year. Six of the Yankees’ ten best prospects are highly talented teenagers (Anthony Seigler, Everson Pereira, Antonio Cabello, Deivi Garcia, Roansy Contreras, Luis Medina) and top prospect Estevan Florial turned only 21 a few weeks ago. Not everyone will work out, of course, but the sheer volume of very young high-upside prospects bodes well for the future of the farm system.

MLB, MLBPA still discussing rule changes

The MLB and MLBPA again traded rule change proposals this past week, report Jeff Passan and Ron Blum. For this season, the two sides are discussing a single July 31st trade deadline (so no August trade waivers) and reducing available mound visits from six to five. MLB is willing to discuss economic issues earlier than usual leading up to the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, as well as push the following rule changes back to 2020:

  • Pitch clock (MLB is willing to push this back to 2022, apparently).
  • Three-batter minimum for pitchers.
  • Adding a 26th roster spot with a 13-pitcher maximum.
  • 28-player limit in September with a 14-pitcher maximum.
  • Increasing injured list and optional assignment minimum from ten days to 15 days.
  • Restrictions on when position players can pitch.

Dellin Betances told Brendan Kuty he doesn’t like the three-batter minimum because it potentially puts guys at increased injury risk if they’re pitching back-to-back or back-to-back-to-back days, which is a perfectly valid concern. I am pro-pitch clock and all for adding a 26th roster spot. I don’t like anything that dictates how teams build (limit on pitcher spots) or use (three-batter minimum, eliminate shifts, etc.) use their roster. Anyway, commissioner Rob Manfred can unilaterally implement a pitch clock and reduce available mound visits to five this year, but he says he prefers to work out an agreement with the MLBPA. We’ll see.

Atlantic League agrees to be MLB’s testing ground

Earlier this week MLB and the independent Atlantic League announced a three-year partnership in which MLB will be allowed to test experimental rule and equipment changes in the Atlantic League. J.J. Cooper hears MLB will experiment with moving the mound back and using an automated strike zone, among other things. Those are seismic alterations to the game and MLB understandably wants plenty of in-game testing before subjecting their players and prospects to the rule changes.

As part of the agreement, MLB will install Trackman (i.e. Statcast) at all eight Atlantic League ballparks and take over as the league’s official stat services provider. Also, MLB will increase their scouting coverage of the league, which employs several former big leaguers each season. Independent leagues have long been viewed as rogue leagues and competition for affiliated baseball, so entering into a partnership with MLB and getting them to make the league state-of-the-art analytically is a historic achievement for the Atlantic League and independent baseball in general. Barriers have been broken.

Thoughts on MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospects for 2019

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Abreu. (Presswire)

Earlier this week the prospect gurus at MLB.com released their annual top 30 Yankees prospects list. The other scouting publications released their Yankees prospect lists within the last few weeks as well. As always, MLB.com’s list is entirely free. The list, the scouting reports, the scouting grades, the whole nine. It’s a great resource.

MLB.com posted their top 100 prospects last month. Here are their top ten Yankees prospects and their place on the top 100 list:

  1. OF Estevan Florial (No. 57 on the top 100)
  2. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (No. 66 on the top 100)
  3. RHP Albert Abreu
  4. RHP Deivi Garcia
  5. RHP Clarke Schmidt
  6. C Anthony Seigler
  7. OF Everson Pereira
  8. RHP Trevor Stephan
  9. OF Antonio Cabello
  10. RHP Roansy Contreras

“While the Yankees’ farm system isn’t as overflowing with big league-ready talent as it has been recently, they do have an impressive stockpile of high-ceiling/high-risk youngsters,” writes Jim Callis. “… New York is one of the best organizations at helping pitchers improve their velocity and spin rates, giving it an intriguing wave of overpowering arms that has yet to surface in the big leagues.”

Noticeably absent from MLB.com’s top 30 list is RHP Freicer Perez, who ranked eighth last year. Six disaster starts and season-ending shoulder surgery will do that. I dropped Perez to 19th on my top 30 list. Anyway, here are some thoughts on MLB.com’s top 30 list, or rather some thoughts on the information included in the scouting reports.

1. Putting numbers on Florial’s tools. Most of the chatter about Florial this winter revolved around his pitch recognition, or lack thereof. And yes, his pitch recognition is a significant issue. It must improve for him to have a long and productive big league career. Fortunately he turned only 21 in November and has time to get better.

All the attention being paid to Florial’s pitch recognition can make it easy to forget what makes him such a quality prospect. MLB.com’s 20-80 scouting scale grades give him the best grade in four of the five tools among the top 30. Look at this:

  • Power: 55 (tied with C Josh Breaux, OF Anthony Garcia, OF Ryder Green)
  • Speed: 65
  • Fielding: 60 (tied with OF Everson Pereira)
  • Throwing: 65

As a reminder, 20 on the 20-80 scale is terrible, 80 is great, and 50 is average. Florial is above-average in four of the five tools and a full grade better than average in three of the five. His 45 hit tool is what prevents him from being a truly elite prospect, but damn, four above-average tools? It’s easy to lose sight of that. If he is able to conquer his pitch recognition issues — a big IF, of course — Florial can be a big time all-around impact player.

2. Are Medina’s issues mental? RHP Luis Medina has the most electric arm in the system. It’s easy upper-90s gas with a hammer curveball and a good changeup. The kid just has no idea where the ball is going. He walked 46 batters in 36 innings with Rookie Pulaski last year, or exactly one-quarter of the batters he faced. Medina also uncorked a dozen wild pitches, so yeah, control is an issue.

In MLB.com’s scouting report, they note “some observers believe his strike-throwing issues are more mental than physical.” They’re not the only publication to mention this either. FanGraphs said something similar in their recent top Yankees prospects list. From FanGraphs:

Medina’s issues aren’t physical — his delivery is fine and his arm stroke is clean. Instead, the problem appears to be mostly mental. He’ll throw well in the bullpen only to have things will snowball for him in game situations. One source described his issues as stemming from a need for greater mental maturity and to not be so hard on himself, which are exactly the kinds of traits that come with general social maturity.

Huh. Most of what I’ve read attributed Medina’s control issues to a delivery he struggles to repeat. MLB.com and FanGraphs both say that no, the delivery is good, the control problems are more mental than physical. Medina is still only 19 and it’s silly to think he should be more polished than he is at this age. Dellin Betances had (has) similar stuff and it took him until his mid-20s to harness it. Medina strikes me a similar long-term project. Strike-throwing issues stemming from a mental block seem more difficult to correct than strike-throwing issues that stem from a bad delivery, but who knows. Everyone is different. Medina’s control issues are bad but we’re not in Jeff Degano/Jason Neighborgall territory either. Hopefully as he gains experience he’ll get the ball closer to the plate. I just thought it was interesting to read his control problems could be mental rather than related to his delivery.

3. Osiel Rodriguez is the next big thing. At this time last year Pereira was the next big thing. He signed as an international amateur free agent the previous summer and quickly filled out his frame and shown increased power potential. This year’s next big thing is 17-year-old Cuban righty Osiel Rodriguez, who the Yankees gave $600,000 last year after acquiring bonus pool space in the Luke Voit trade. MLB.com ranks Rodriguez the 18th best prospect in the system. A snippet of their scouting report:

Somewhat reminiscent of former Yankees star Orlando Hernandez, Rodriguez has a seemingly endless combination of pitches and arm slots. He has an electric arm that produces 92-95 mph fastballs that top out at 97 with high spin rates that give him rising life up in the strike zone. His hard curveball is a bit more effective than his harder slider, with both displaying the potential to become plus pitches, and his changeup has splitter action and similar upside … He has a lofty ceiling, as his chance to develop four plus offerings could make him a frontline starter.

Well then. Rodriguez will play this entire season at age 17 and he’s yet to appear in a pro game, so as exciting as that scouting report is, we have to pump the brakes a bit. The scouting report mentions he “doesn’t have the cleanest arm action and there’s effort in his delivery,” which you can see in the video below, and pro hitters will tell us what they think about Rodriguez once he gets into games. Since the 2014-15 signing spree dud, the Yankees have done some great work internationally — six of MLB.com’s top ten Yankees prospects were originally signed internationally by the Yankees — and Rodriguez (and unranked OF Kevin Alcantara) looks like this year’s breakout candidate.

4. I’m not the only Myatt fan. I ranked RHP Tanner Myatt, last year’s 11th round pick, as the 27th best prospect in the system. MLB.com has him 29th and no other scouting publication even mentioned him in recent weeks, let along ranked him on a top Yankees prospects list. I’m not saying he’s a future ace or anything, but a 6-foot-7 20-year-old with an upper-90s fastball and a wipeout breaking ball will never look out of place on an organizational top 30 prospects list. MLB.com’s scouting report says Myatt has “excited the Yankees with the progress he made with his secondary pitches” since the draft, and adds “New York sees him as a potential three-pitch starter but he could wind up as a flamethrowing reliever.” Either outcome would be fantastic for an 11th round pick and a $147,500 bonus. I’m glad I wasn’t the only person to consider Myatt a top 30 prospect in the organization this spring. I must’ve watched this video of him carving up Instructional League hitters a dozen times over the winter.

5. The Yankees are really short on infield talent. There is one (1) infielder on MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospects list. That is SS Thairo Estrada, who is coming back from what was essentially a lost season. That’s it. He’s the best infield prospect in the organization. The Yankees are very deep in pitching (21 pitchers in the top 30) and Florial, Pereira, and Cabello give them some high-end outfield talent. The infield? Not so much. Granted, having Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar at the big league level lessens the need infield prospects, but the infield is a weakness in the farm system right now. Recent international signees like SS Ronny Rojas, SS Roberto Chirinos, and SS Oswald Peraza could help correct the infield deficiency in the coming years. At this time last year the Yankees were short on catchers. Now they’re short on infielders. I don’t believe the Yankees specifically drafted Seigler and Breaux to address their catching shortage last year and I don’t think they’d prioritize infielders early in the draft this year either. At the top of the draft, you have to take the best talent regardless of position. Drafting for need is pointless because it’s so difficult to project what you’ll need three or four years down the line, when that prospect is big league ready. That all said, it would certainly be convenient if the best available player is an infielder when the Yankees make their first few draft picks this summer. The system needs an infield infusion.

Minor League Notes: System & Prospect Ranks, Diaz, Stowers

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Abreu. (Jennifer Stewart/Getty)

Major League Spring Training opened last week but minor league camp is still a few weeks away. Minor league camp doesn’t open until early March. A bunch of prospects are already working out at the complex in Tampa though. Anyway, here’s one last link back to my Top 30 Prospect List and here are some minor league notes.

Baseball America, Keith Law release farm system rankings

Both Baseball America (subs. req’d) and Keith Law (subs. req’d) released their annual farm system rankings in recent days, and they both have the Padres and Rays ranked first and second, respectively. Their lists diverge from there. They ranked the Yankees similarly:

  • Baseball America (20th): “After graduating Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar the last two years, the system has dropped without an elite, near-ready prospect, but they are deep in young pitching.”
  • Keith Law (19th): “The Yankees’ top end has thinned out significantly, but from low-A down they at least have a strong collection of guys who show enough to grab your attention — elite speed or power, big velocity, huge spin rates — and create some potential trade value.”

Readers ask me where I think the farm system ranks every week in our chat, and I’ve been saying the 15-20 range since the Justus Sheffield trade. Bottom half of the league but closer to middle of the pack than last. The Yankees are loaded with high-end kids in the low minors, so the potential is there for rapid improvement. That’s also a risky profile. There is lots of boom or bust potential in the system and the rankings reflect that.

Law, FG, BP release top Yankees prospects lists

FanGraphs, Keith Law (subs. req’d), and Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) all released their top Yankees prospects lists recently and they go well beyond the top ten. FanGraphs ranked 38 (!) prospects and their list is free. Go read all the scouting reports. Law ranked 20 players and mentioned ten others. Baseball Prospectus ranked 15 and mentioned another four. Here are the top tens:

FanGraphs
1. OF Estevan Florial
2. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
3. RHP Deivi Garcia
4. OF Antonio Cabello
5. RHP Roansy Contreras
6. RHP Albert Abreu
7. OF Everson Pereira
8. C Anthony Seigler
9. RHP Luis Gil
10. RHP Clarke Schmidt

Keith Law
1. RHP Deivi Garcia
2. OF Everson Pereira
3. OF Estevan Florial
4. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
5. C Anthony Seigler
6. RHP Freicer Perez
7. RHP Clarke Schmidt
8. RHP Albert Abreu
9. OF Anthony Cabello
10. SS Thairo Estrada

Baseball Prospectus
1. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
2. OF Estevan Florial
3. OF Antonio Cabello
4. RHP Deivi Garcia
5. OF Everson Pereira
6. RHP Luis Gil
7. RHP Mike King
8. RHP Roansy Contreras
9. RHP Clarke Schmidt
10. RHP Chance Adams

Law picked Cabello as his sleeper for 2019. “Cabello has so much upside that I even had suggestions to put him in my top 100, although I think that would have been premature. But he could belong in a year,” says the write-up. He also notes the big money 2014-15 international signings (3B Nelson Gomez, OF Juan De Leon, OF Jonathan Amundaray, etc.) have flamed out. “Only (SS Hoy Jun) Park looks like he might ever even see a day in the majors,” he writes. The spending spree was a good idea but wow did it not work out as expected. Lotta money for nothing.

FanGraphs posted their top 132 prospects list last week, which had Blue Jays 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. in the top spot, and included only one Yankee: Florial at No. 106. Why is Loaisiga above Florial in the Yankees top ten but not on the top 132 list? Beats me. In a separate piece FanGraphs looked at players they expect to be a top 100 prospect next year. Cabello, OF Kevin Alcantara, and RHP Trevor Stephan are among them. The Yankees gave Alcantara a $1M bonus last summer and all indications are he is about to become a Very Big Deal.

Yankees connected to another top international free agent

Last week we learned the Yankees are expected to sign Dominican OF Jasson Dominguez when the 2019-20 international signing period opens July 2nd. Dominguez is considered the best available player this summer and he’s expected to receive a massive bonus in the $5M range. Ben Badler (subs. req’d) now connects the Yankees to another top international player, Dominican OF Jhon Diaz. From Badler:

Diaz is smaller than the other top players in the class, but he’s one of the most skilled game players for 2019. He’s a lefty who consistently performs well in games with a quick, simple swing and a knack for barreling the ball against live pitching. He’s a center fielder with good defensive instincts and one of the smartest baseball IQ players in the country.

Diaz looks like he’s about nine years old in the video embedded above. Total opposite of Dominguez, who looks like a grown man (in the very limited video I can find).

Badler says the Red Sox were expected to sign Diaz but “more recently there’s been buzz” about the Yankees signing him. That’s not as firm a connection as Dominguez, but it is a connection nonetheless. The bonus pools will be announced in a few weeks and the Yankees figure to be in the $5M to $5.25M range. They’ll have to trade for additional pool space to sign anyone other than Dominguez. (Teams can trade for an additional 60% of their pool. It used to be 75%. Now it’s 60%.)

Yankees were ready to draft Stowers

In the least surprising news ever, George King (subs. req’d) reports the Yankees were ready to select OF Josh Stowers with their second round pick last summer. The Mariners beat them to the punch and grabbed Stowers with the 54th overall pick. The Yankees held the 61st overall selection and used it on C Josh Breaux. They got their man last month when they acquired Stowers from the Mariners in the Sonny Gray three-team trade.

“We had him rated in the vicinity of 50th (overall), close to the bottom of the second round. He can run and is a basestealer who plays center field and has power. He is a very good athlete. The ceiling on him is he has power and speed,” said scouting director Damon Oppenheimer to King. As soon as the trade went down, I figured Stowers was someone the Yankees had targeted in the draft last year. I assume the LHP Ronald Roman situation is similar. He’s a 17-year-old kid the Diamondbacks signed as an international free agent last summer. The Yankees got Roman, who has yet to play a pro game, in the Tim Locastro trade last month. They probably tried to sign him last summer.

Wednesday Notes: Top 110 Prospects, Cessa, German, Loaisiga

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Florial. (Presswire)

In two weeks pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa and Spring Training will begin. Will Manny Machado or Bryce Harper sign before then? I’m starting to think no. Would be pretty embarrassing for baseball if two 26-year-old superstars are unemployed when Spring Training opens, I think. Anyway, here are some notes and links to check out.

Three Yankees among Law’s top 110 prospects

Over the last few days Keith Law released his top 110 prospects list for the 2019 season: Nos. 1-50, Nos. 51-100, and Nos. 101-110. Everything is behind the paywall, though I will tell you Padres SS Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as Law’s top prospect, not Blue Jays 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. (Vlad Jr. is second.) Three Yankees make the top 110:

61. RHP Deivi Garcia
101. OF Everson Pereira
106. OF Estevan Florial

Law says Garcia “at least looks like he is built from the same mold as guys such as (Marcus) Stroman and Roy Oswalt,” meaning a short righty who can stick as a starter. He adds Pereira might’ve made the top 100 had he not missed time with injury last year. “(The) raw tools and the fact that he still hit .263/.322/.389 despite his youth mark him as a potential top-50 guy for next year,” says the write-up.

Like Baseball America, Law kept Florial out of his top 100 for pitch recognition issues. (Florial wasn’t in Law’s top 100 last year either.) And, given his injury history, I’m not surprised RHP Jonathan Loaisiga didn’t make the top 110 or even the honorable mentions. Loaisiga has top 100 stuff and control, but not top 100 health. The only former Yankees prospect to crack Law’s top 110 list is Mariners LHP Justus Sheffield, who ranked 34th. He went to Seattle in the James Paxton trade.

Yankees received calls on Cessa, German, Loaisiga

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees have received trade calls this offseason on depth starters Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga. Obviously the Yankees haven’t received an offer to their liking given the fact all three righties remain in the organization. Loaisiga’s trade value may never be higher than it is right now. Given his injury history, I wouldn’t be against cashing him as a trade chip.

The Yankees (finally) traded Sonny Gray two weeks ago and they’ve yet to sign a swingman type to replace him, not unless you count Drew Hutchison or David Hale. Cessa, German, Loaisiga, and Chance Adams are the Nos. 6-9 starters in whatever order. Cessa is out of options, so trading him would be preferable to potentially losing him on waivers for nothing, but I’m not sure the Yankees would get much in return. Cessa is probably more valuable to the Yankees as a depth piece than anything he could fetch in a trade. Same with German.

Nike, not Under Armour, will be MLB’s next uniform supplier

Earlier this month MLB announced a new ten-year agreement that makes Nike the league’s new uniform supplier beginning in 2020. Nike will replace Majestic. A few years ago Under Armour was in talks to take over as the league’s uniform supplier, but that deal fell apart, and Nike swooped in. The Under Armour logo would’ve appeared on the jersey chest, like so:

The Associated Press reports the Nike swoosh logo “likely will move to a more prominent position on jersey fronts,” though no details were announced. Currently the Majestic logo appears only on uniform sleeves, and the Yankees have an exemption. There’s no Majestic logo on their jerseys. I would be surprised if they get a similar exemption in the Nike deal. Much like the New Era logo on the side of caps, it probably won’t be long before you stop noticing the Nike logo on jersey fronts.

Yankees hire first ever Environment Science Advisor

The Yankees have hired Dr. Allen Hershkowitz as their new Environmental Science Advisor, the team announced. It’s the first position of its kind in pro sports. “The Yankees have always been devoted to supporting the best interests of our community, our fans and our players, and we believe effective eco-friendly initiatives are a key element of our interactions,” said Hal Steinbrenner in a statement.

Teams around the league have taken up green initiatives but never before has a sports club hired someone for the express purpose of helping them become more environmentally friendly. The Yankees say Hershkowitz will have a “primary focus on the areas of energy use, waste management, water conservation, and food services.” I imagine it’s only a matter of time until this catches on around the league and other teams invest in environmental advisors.

Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus release 2019 top 100 prospects lists

by

Florial. (@MiLB)

Top 100 prospect ranking season has officially arrived. Earlier today Baseball America (subs. req’d) and Baseball Prospectus (no subs. req’d) both released their annual top 100 lists. Well, Baseball Prospectus released a top 101 list. Everyone else releases a top 100 list.

As noted earlier, the Yankees did not have anyone on Baseball America’s list. Kyle Glaser said OF Estevan Florial did receive consideration for the top 100, but concerns about his pitch recognition kept him off the list. Pitch recognition is the biggest development hurdle for Florial going forward.

The Yankees did have two prospects on the Baseball Prospectus list, however. Here are those two along with some other notable prospects:

1. 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
11. OF Taylor Trammell, Reds (Yankees asked for him in Sonny Gray trade talks)
50. LHP Justus Sheffield, Mariners (traded to the Mariners for James Paxton)
64. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
66. OF Estevan Florial

Baseball America also had Vlad Jr. in the top spot. That kid will be A Problem. Baseball America had Sheffield at No. 27 and Trammel at No. 33. Sheffield ranked as their 12th best pitching prospect overall and their third best left-handed pitching prospect behind A’s LHP Jesus Luzardo and A’s LHP A.J. Puk.

As for the two Yankees prospects, Loaisiga over Florial surprises me a bit, especially because Baseball Prospectus tends to skew toward upside and long-term potential with their rankings. Loaisiga’s really good but he also comes with a ton of injury risk. Then again, the difference between No.64 and No. 66 on a top 100 list is nothing, so I wouldn’t sweat it.

MLB.com will announce their top 100 list during a live MLB Network broadcast this weekend (8pm ET on Saturday). Keith Law’s top 100 is due out sometime next week. I reckon we’ll see Florial on both lists. Loaisiga is a maybe only because that injury history is scary. There are healthier pitchers with similar potential in the minors who figure to rank ahead of him.