Archive for Prospect Lists
Baseball America names decade’s top prospects
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Baseball America might be a few weeks late on this one. After all, the decade’s been over for almost a month now, and we covered the the Yankees’ decade a few weeks ago. But the prospect publication just released their decade retrospective, and as you can see, the Yanks’ list is as expected. In fact, it looks awfully similar to Mike’s list.
The biggest omission in the BA list, in my opinion, is Phil Hughes. At no point in the decade would I have taken Marcus Thames over Phil Hughes, and I’d probably opt for Hughes over Melky — a BA prospect just once all decade — and Dioner Navarro who never lived up to the hype.
As Mike noted in December, after the ten guys listed here, the Yanks system didn’t produce much of lasting value this decade. Phil Coke is a useful, if average, player, and David Robertson stands to be a key cog in the bullpen in 2010. Ian Kennedy could still emerge as an adequate Major Leaguer.
The misses are nearly as compelling as the hits though. Amongst David Parrish, Jon Poterson — the comp pick for Andy Pettitte in 2004 — Drew Henson, C.J. Henry and Eric Duncan, the Yanks had some spectacularly hyped prospects and high draft picks who just didn’t come through. Such were the way of things mid-decade.
In the end, the Yanks had a pretty unbalanced decade prospect-wise. They started the 2000’s at the top of the list and stayed in the top 10 until an epic mid-decade collapse. Only recently have their rebounded, but with a few trades this winter, the system has been depleted. Right now, the Yanks have a solid Major League club, some high-ceiling young kids and Jesus Montero. If all goes according to plan, he’ll front this list when it comes around again in ten years.
Added to by Mike: I completely forgot about Westbrook, which is why he was omitted from my list. I would have placed him third, behind Soriano and Cano. As I explained in my post, Joba is far and away the team’s best draft pick of the last ten years, and frankly it’s not even close. He has more than double the WAR of the next closest player despite spending just over two years in the bigs.
As for the worst pick, yeah Henry flamed out in glorious fashion, but a guy with his athleticism and raw skills at a premium position is a legit first round pick. It didn’t work out, but that doesn’t make it a bad pick in my book. Poterson, on the other hand, was awful because he was such an overdraft. In all seriousness, they could have gotten him in the 5th or 6th round if they hadn’t taken him in the first.
As you can see from BA’s fancy little chart, the system was completely in the dumps for a good chunk of the decade. You can’t have a system that bad for one particular reason, it takes a group effort; the team forfeited so many picks over the years to sign free agents, and for quite some time they adhered to slot and drafted low-ceiling college players with their top picks. They weren’t always willing to pay for premium young talent, and it wasn’t until Brian Cashman fired scouting director Lin Garrett and put Damon Oppenheimer and his people in place in 2005 that things started to turn around.
KLaw’s Top 100 Prospects List
Posted by: | CommentsKeith Law posted his list of the game’s top 100 prospects today (it’s all behind the Insider wall, unfortunately). with two Yankee farmhands making the cut: Jesus Montero at #10, and Manny Banuelos at #96. “Montero’s ticket to the big leagues is his bat,” says KLaw, “and his hitting style is similar to that of another big guy who spent a lot of his career at DH: Frank Thomas.” Frank Thomas was good at hitting baseballs, in case you didn’t already know. As for Banuelos, he says his ceiling is “probably just a No. 3 or No. 4 starter, but given his youth and feel he’s got a good chance to get there.”
Arodys Vizcaino cracked the list at #43 (“… potential as a front-line starter”) while Austin Jackson came in at #70 (“… upside keeps dropping as he moves up the ladder”). Old buddy Jose Tabata also cracked the list as #57 (“… dwindling chance to be an impact player”). It’s a good sign that the Yanks’ system has produced five top 100 talents, even though only two of them remain with the organization.
KLaw also posted his top ten prospects by organization, and the Yanks’ list is made up of the usual suspects: Montero, Banuelos, Zach McAllister, Austin Romine, etc. Might as well mention that MLB.com’s top 50 list came out last night, and Montero ranked 19th overall. That’ll be the lowest you see him ranked all offseason.
Frankie Piliere’s Top 100 Prospects
Posted by: | CommentsFrankie Piliere of AOL FanHouse posted his list of the top 100 prospects today (part one and two), with Jesus Montero coming at number five behind a bunch of guys you’ve surely heard of. “Much debate surrounds Montero’s ability to stick behind the plate,” says Piliere, “but the bat is going to be special. He has a potential 40-homer bat with the offensive upside of Miguel Cabrera.” Sounds good to me.
Three other Yankee prospects made the list: Manny Banuelos at #41 (“…with a 90-93 mph fastball and the potential for two plus secondary pitches, this smallish lefty has the upside of a No. 2 starter”), Austin Romine at #45 (“…has the potential to be a potent offensive threat and an above-average defender behind the plate”), and Zach McAllister at #76. Old pals Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata checked in at #25 and #69, respectively.
Minor Notes: Montero, Vizcaino
Posted by: | CommentsGot a few minor league nuggets worth passing along this afternoon, so let’s get to it…
- John Sickels at Minor League Ball posted some excerpts of player write-ups from his book today, and Jesus Montero was one of the lucky few. You might fool him once,” says Sickels, “but don’t try the same trick too soon or he’ll make you pay. I have absolutely no doubts about Montero’s bat.”
- Meanwhile, the crew at Project Prospect posted their list of the ten best prospects in the game, and Montero checks in at number three. Jason Heyward tops the list, and is followed by Desmond Jennings of the Rays. Montero is one spot ahead of Stephen Strasburg, who I consider to be the very best prospect in the game. Either way, this is elite company we’re talking here.
- Last, but certainly not least, Kevin Goldstein released his top eleven Braves’ prospects today. Former Yankee farmhand Arodys Vizcaino ranks third behind Heyward and Julio Teheran. Somehow he managed to go from a four star prospect with the Yanks to a five star prospect with the Braves in less than a month. Go figure.
Minor Notes: Montero, Prospect Lists, Draft
Posted by: | CommentsGot some minor league notes to pass along…
- As I’m sure you’ve already heard, farm director Mark Newman confirmed that Jesus Montero and Austin Romine will start the year in Triple-A and Double-A, respectively. Montero’s bat is definitely ready for the jump, though his glove isn’t, so that will be a big challenge for him. Romine’s ready for Trenton, he probably was in August.
- Kevin Goldstein ran down his top eleven Yankee prospects, with Montero topping the list as the team’s only five star prospect. Since departed Arodys Vizcaino was the team’s only four star prospect, and they’re followed by a slew of three star guys. Trust me, trading Arodys stings, but remember that he’s a 19-year old that has yet to play in a full season league. He’s just a lotto ticket.
- Coincidentally, Marc Hulet at FanGraphs posted his list of the Yanks top ten Yankee prospects, and had Vizcaino fourth behind Montero, Romine, and Zach McAllister. He also had Mike Dunn rated 6th, which is about as high as you’ll see him on any list. I like Mike Dunn, but sheesh, not that much.
- Meanwhile, Hulet is also running through his annual review of each team’s recent drafts, and hit the Yankees yesterday. If you’re looking for the quick recap of the last four drafts, then I highly recommend it, Marc does a great job. Five members of the Yanks’ 2006 draft class have already reached the big leagues, and three others are legitimately on the door step. Quite a haul.
- The Yanks signed outfielder Javier Herrera to a minor league deal. Baseball America rated him the sixth best prospect in Oakland’s system as recently as 2007, though he had Tommy John surgery and never quite figured it out. He’s a career .282-.358-.468 hitter in the minors, though he has just 15 plate appearances above Double-A. Decent little gamble.
Baseball America’s Top 10 Yankee Prospects
Posted by: | CommentsBaseball America posted their top ten Yankee prospects today, and predictably Jesus Montero topped the list. Austin Romine and Arodys Vizcaino rounded out the top three. Four of the ten players are backstops.
In the subscriber only scouting report, Montero is said to have improved his defense behind the plate, however he’s still a below average defender. More importantly, they said he “hasn’t delivered completely on his raw power, but he’s close to projecting as an 80 hitter with 80 power on the 20-80 scouting scale.” That’s what I’m talkin’ about.
Andrew Brackman, who still managed to crack the top ten, was said to have regained some command in Instructional League. Good news.
Top Prospects Of Decade
Posted by: | CommentsLast night we went with a “top [whatever] of the decade” theme for the open thread, so let’s continue with that today. Baseball America is running a series in which they looking back at each organization’s top ten prospects of the decade, and so far they’ve gotten to all the clubs in the NL East, NL Central, and NL West. I’m not sure when they’ll get to the AL, probably tomorrow, but I’m going to beat them to it and post my top ten Yankee prospects of the decade.
First off, let’s address the best/worst draft pick issue like BA. Clearly, the Yanks’ best draft pick of the last ten years is Joba Chamberlain. He was a top ten talent before concerns about his weight and a triceps injury caused him to fall all the way to the 41st overall pick in 2006. He’s since rocketed to the big leagues, and his +4.5 career WAR is far and away the best by of Yankee draft pick of the decade (Brett Gardner & Phil Hughes are tied for second at +2.2 each).
As for the worst pick, I’m going to go with Jon Poterson, though I suspect BA will go with a bigger name like Eric Duncan or C.J. Henry. Both Duncan and Henry were elite high school prospects deserving of their first round selection, while Poterson was just a straight up overdraft. The Yanks second pick (#37 overall) in 2004 was a big bodied and unathletic catcher that had to move out from behind the plate before the ink dried on his contract, and he hit just .207-.265-.326 in 215 career games, none above A-ball. Poterson was playing in an independent league less than three years after being drafted. Just a brutal, brutal pick.
Okay, let’s move on to the top ten prospects of the decade. This is all done in hindsight, based on what these guys have gone on to do, not what they were projected to do when they were just minor leaguers. If this were based on potential, it would be Drew Henson then everyone else.
- Alfonso Soriano, 2B: One homer away from becoming the fourth member of the 40-40 club in 2002 (he later joined with the Nats), Soriano hit .284-.322-.502 with 98 homers and 121 steals in 501 games for the Bombers before being traded away for some guy named Alex Rodriguez.
- Robbie Cano, 2B: A career .306-.339-.480 hitter at age 26, Cano has developed into a bat control freak that’s on the brink of stardom.
- Chien-Ming Wang, RHP: Easily the most productive pitcher the Yanks have developed since Andy Pettitte, Wang won 55 games in parts of five seasons with the Yanks, although his tenure came to an abrupt end last weekend because of injuries.
- Nick Johnson, 1B: The man who led all of professional baseball (majors and minors) with a .501 OBP (!!!) during the ‘98-’99 seasons quietly hit .256-.376-.424 in parts of three seasons with the Yanks before being dealt in a package for Javy Vazquez.
- Juan Rivera, OF: Traded away in the same deal as Johnson, Rivera has gone to post an under-the-radar .285-.331-.470 batting line while playing solid defense in the corner outfield spots.
- Marcus Thames, OF: Only Soriano has more career homers than Thames among players on this list, and although his contribution to the Yankees was limited, Thames has six productive seasons (107 OPS+) for the Tigers.
- Joba Chamberlain, RHP: Just three full seasons into his pro career, Joba’s already got a 31 start season in the big leagues under his belt, plus a rep as being a dominant reliever. Best of both worlds, I guess.
- Phil Hughes, RHP: Hughes is the messiah, the first prospect that represented the team’s newfound dedication to building from within after years of eschewing the farm system. Still just 23, Hughes has already been a major contributor out of the bullpen for a World Championship club.
- Dioner Navarro, C: Pudgito never got much of a chance in pinstripes, though he’s gone on to be a serviceable backstop for two clubs, not to mention an All Star for a pennant winning club.
- Melky Cabrera, OF: Everybody’s favorite fourth outfielder is still just 25-years-old, and has been a fixture in the Yanks’ outfield for the last four seasons. He enjoyed the best season of his career in 2009, hitting .274-.336-.416.
The talent production really starts to drop off after that. There’s Al Aceves, Brett Gardner, David Robertson, Phil Coke, Brad Halsey, and Andy Phillips, none of whom has sustained much of anything in the majors to this point. Just four of the ten players listed above were drafted by the Yanks, the other six were signed off the international market. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: the draft gets all the attention, but the international market continues to be the backbone of the Yanks’ system.
Open Thread: The day before Halloween
Posted by: | CommentsLots of us are going to be out partying it up pre-Halloween style tonight while the World Series is stuck in a travel day, so it’ll probably be a little slow around these parts. Anyway, I just wanted to point out that Matt Hagen at THT posted his Top 10 Yankees Prospects list. Here’s quick thoughts:
- Jairo Heredia is too high after missing most of last year due to injury. Even healthy he wouldn’t rank that high.
- DJ Mitchell is also too high. He’s got a massive platoon split and is probably just a reliever down the road.
- Austin Jackson is too low. I know he didn’t have a great year, but all the tools are still there, and he’s still a 22-yr old in Triple-A.
Anyway, use this as your open thread for the night. Both the Isles and Rangers in action tonight, but that’s pretty much it. Talk about that, your Halloween costume, or whatever else you want. Just follow the guidelines and be nice.
If you’re really bored, laugh at this:
Jackson ranked 2nd best outfield prospect in the IL
Posted by: | CommentsBaseball America finished their league top 20 series today, wrapping up with the Triple-A International League. Austin Jackson was the only Yankee prospect to make the list, ranking 7th overall. Only Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates placed higher among outfielders. The subscriber only scouting report called Jackson “most exciting player to spend the full season in the IL,” noting that he drew comparisons to Torii Hunter, albeit with less power. I’d take that in a heartbeat.
Montero, McAllister among EL’s best
Posted by: | CommentsAfter ranking as the second best prospect in the High-A Florida State League, Jesus Montero followed that up by placing fifth in the Double-A Eastern League, according to Baseball America. Zach McAllister came in at #19, while old pal Jose Tabata checked in at #15. In the subscriber only report, one AL scout said of Montero: “When he shows up to play, it’s pretty good. I don’t think he’ll get away with showing up every other night in the big leagues, especially behind the plate, but it could just be youthful mistakes.” This is the first I’ve heard of him “taking days off,” but if he hit .317-.370-.539 as a 19-yr old in the EL playing every other day, imagine what he could do if he actually applied himself.
As for McAllister, one EL manager said he “competed and threw four pitches for strikes, and both the breaking balls were tough to handle.” It also notes that he’s mostly upper-80’s with the fastball, knocking his ceiling down to a back-end starter. Such is life.



