AL East Player Rankings

by 11 Comments

M.A.N. eACTA
A dissenting opinion on the Cervelli-Johnson collision

This is Part Two in my series of ripping off ideas from Jason Churchill at Prospect Insider. Yesterday I took a look at the best tools in the AL East, and now I’m ranking the best overall players. There’s no set formula used to determine the rankings, I basically went on track record and how I think everyone will perform this coming season. There’s not much separation between spots four and, like, 21, so don’t get too worked up if you disagree with a ranking. This wasn’t nearly as easy as you think.

I followed Jason’s lead and included some projected stats in the rankings, although my foray into sabermetrics won’t last much longer than this post. Thanks to Jason for giving me the okay to steal his ideas; I really appreciate it. The good stuff is after the jump.

Top 25 Players
No. Player, Team RAB Says…
1 Alex Rodriguez, NYY The best player on the planet. Period.
2 David Ortiz, BOS Too bad he can’t play even passable D.
3 Manny Ramirez,BOS Manny’s playing for an option. 160 RBI?
4 Derek Jeter, NYY 3.5 decent years away from 3,000 hits.
5 Josh Beckett, BOS He’s a douchebag … and a helluva pitcher.
6 BJ Upton, TB Bossman Jr. is still only 23. Crazy, huh?
7 Jon Papelbon, BOS And he’s only getting better. Oi.
8 Mariano Rivera, NYY Declining a bit, but still one of the very best.
9 Scott Kazmir, TB Highest Kper9 in baseball since his debut.
10 Roy Halladay, TOR 266 IP in ’03, hasn’t been the same since.
11 Alex Rios, TOR He’s just starting to scratch the surface.
12 Nick Markakis, BAL The best player no one talks about. Stud.
13 Carl Crawford, TB 990 career hits, and he’s only 26. Wow.
14 Jorge Posada, NYY Unheralded greatness, year after year.
15 BJ Ryan, TOR It’s easy to forget how dominant he can be.
16 Chien-Ming Wang, NYY Woulda won 22 in ’07 if not for hammy pull.
17 Vernon Wells, TOR
 He couldn’t have peaked at age 27, right?
18 Andy Pettitte, NYY If he gets to 250 wins, is he a HOFer?
19 Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS Does he take that next step this year?
20 Carlos Pena, TB ’07 was likely a career year, but he’s still legit.
21 Robinson Cano, NYY 10th highest BA in baseball since his debut.
22 Brian Roberts, BAL How much longer will he be in the division?
23 Scott Rolen, TOR If he’s healthy, he could end up top 10.
24 Bobby Abreu, NYY Do they let him walk after the year?
25 Mike Lowell, BOS Was ’07 a rebound, or just a contract push?
Starting Pitcher
NO. Player, Team 2007 FIP James ’08 CHONE ’08 Marcel ’08
1 Josh Beckett, BOS 3.04 3.82 3.74 3.87
2 Scott Kazmir, TB 3.41 3.59 3.43 3.48
3 Roy Halladay, TOR 3.51 3.58 3.84 3.64
4 Chien-Ming Wang, NYY 3.75 3.99 4.13 3.95
5 Andy Pettitte, NYY 3.83 3.70 4.24 3.98
6 Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS 4.19 3.70 3.87 4.21
7 AJ Burnett, TOR 4.29 3.91 4.03 4.03
8 Jamie Shields, TB 3.82 3.65 3.93 3.98
9 Jeremy Guthrie, BAL 4.37 4.50 4.84 4.42
10 Phil Hughes, NYY 4.31 – 4.27 4.14
Closer
NO. PLAYER 2007 FIP James ’08 CHONE ’08 Marcel ’08
1 Jon Papelbon, BOS 2.41 3.03 2.88 3.22
2 Mariano Rivera, NYY 2.61 2.69 3.20 3.38
3 BJ Ryan, TOR 7.58 2.90 3.70 3.58
4 Troy Percival, TB 3.13 4.34 4.13 4.20
5 George Sherrill, BAL 3.07 3.36 3.77 3.95
Setup
NO. PLAYER 2007 FIP James ’08 CHONE ’08 Marcel ’08
1 Joba Chamberlain, NYY 1.78 – 3.58 3.47
2 Hideki Okajima, BOS 3.29 3.48 3.80 3.96
3 Jeremy Accardo, TOR 3.44 3.26 3.87 3.93
4 Dan Wheeler, TB 3.96 3.79 3.78 4.01
5 Jamie Walker, BAL 4.06 4.25 4.37 4.24
Catcher
NO. PLAYER ’07 RC/27 James CHONE Marcel
1 Jorge Posada, NYY 8.90 6.39 6.27 6.49
2 Ramon Hernandez, BAL 4.36 4.72 4.92 4.98
3 Jason Varitek, BOS 5.61 4.98 5.17 5.13
4 Greg Zaun, TOR 4.85 4.46 4.82 4.74
5 Dioner Navarro, TB 3.25 3.79 4.48 437
First Base
NO. PLAYER ’07 RC/27 James CHONE Marcel
1 Carlos Pena, TB 9.92 6.74 6.59 7.71
2 Kevin Youkilis, BOS 6.87 6.22 5.95 6.29
3 Jason Giambi, NYY 5.98 6.52 6.41 6.98
4 Lyle Overbay, TOR 4.17 5.86 5.52 5.43
5 Aubrey Huff, BAL 5.27 5.46 5.45 5.12
Second Base
NO. PLAYER ’07 RC/27 James CHONE Marcel
1 Robinson Cano, NYY 5.93 6.36 6.29 6.07
2 Brian Roberts, BAL 6.61 5.50 5.84 6.09
3 Akinori Iwamura, TB 5.63 5.53 5.16 5.47
4 Aaron Hill, TOR 5.09 5.42 5.38 5.26
5 Dustin Pedroia, BOS 6.60 5.85 6.01 6.09
Third Base
NO. PLAYER ’07 RC/27 James CHONE Marcel
1 Alex Rodriguez, NYY 10.49 8.46 8.59 8.34
2 Scott Rolen, TOR 4.42 6.36 5.67 5.19
3 Mike Lowell, BOS 6.88 5.67 5.89 5.26
4 Melvin Mora, BAL 4.55 5.13 4.97 4.79
5 Evan Longoria, TB – – – –
Shortstop
NO. PLAYER ’07 RC/27 James CHONE Marcel
1 Derek Jeter, NYY 6.34 6.22 6.02 6.46
2 Jason Bartlett, TB 4.69 4.95 4.52 4.82
3 Julio Lugo, BOS 3.66 4.39 4.73 4.57
4 David Eckstein, TOR 5.17 4.44 4.55 4.79
5 Luis Hernandez, BAL (eek)
 3.46 2.85 3.04 5.17
Outfield
NO. PLAYER ’07 RC/27 James CHONE Marcel
1 Manny Ramirez, BOS 6.66 823 7.52 7.18
2 BJ Upton, TB 7.05 6.73 5.79 6.39
3 Alex Rios, TOR 6.68 6.03 5.96 6.01
4 Nick Markakis, BAL 6.12 6.90 6.37 6.13
5 Carl Crawford, TB 6.28 5.65 6.33 6.26
6 Vernon Wells, TOR 4.26 5.52 5.34 5.36
7 Bobby Abreu, NYY 6.19 6.63 5.79 6.62
8 JD Drew, BOS 5.75 6.45 6.35 6.32
9 Hideki Matsui, NYY 6.72 7.03 6.43 6.25
10 Johnny Damon, NYY 5.59 5.28 5.37 5.75
11 Adam Jones, BAL 4.30 5.70 4.63 4.68
12 Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS 8.66 6.88 5.56 6.58
M.A.N. eACTA
A dissenting opinion on the Cervelli-Johnson collision
  • dan

    To be honest, I think a few Red Sox players are a little low, but overall I think this is fair. Varitek is better than Hernandez despite the age difference, and Dustin Pedroia is NOT the worst second baseman in the division– he’s better than Aaron Hill and his .333 OBP. Iwamura I’ll let slide because of future performance projection and his power in Japan.

  • http://knickerbockerchatter.blogspot.com/ Bruno

    In the top 25 did you value pitchers more than hitters?

    http://knickerbockerchatter.blogspot.com/

  • Mike

    Roy Halladay, TB …. um Roy Halladay plays for TOR not TB :) minor error i’ll let you off with a warning

  • Jerry

    Off topic but Yankees scout watches Blanton from MLBTradeRumors.

    Yankees Scouting Joe Blanton
    According to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, the Yankees had a scout watching Oakland starter Joe Blanton on Sunday.

    Blanton, 27, saw his salary escalate to $3.7MM this year as he reached his arbitration years. He’ll remain under team control through the 2010 season. The projection would change if Blanton switched to pinstripes, but PECOTA sees a 4.36 ERA in 187 innings from him this year (a performance valued at $8.8MM).

    The Yankees are relying on Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte to front their rotation. They’ll round it out with Phil Hughes, Mike Mussina, and Ian Kennedy. Joba Chamberlain is expected to join the rotation mid-summer. I imagine the Yanks are just doing their due diligence with Blanton; a preseason trade doesn’t seem likely.

  • http://www.thebronxzoo.wordpress.com iYankees

    I agree on Nick Markakis. Absolute stud and nobody knows it until it’s time to draft your fantasy baseball team.

  • Tripp

    Hard to imagine Drew is better than Matsui.

  • Adam

    bill james hearts hideki.

  • http://skyking162.com Sky

    You know, I don’t have much to argue with, which probably means you did a good job. My biggest complaint would be having Manny too high (he’ll be better than last season offensively, but has clearly declined from his peak and is awful defensively.) I’d move Crawford up, and I’m not a Carl fanboy. And I’d probably move Pedroia up. Oh, and Jeter way down — again, crappy fielding.

  • http://www.riveraveblues.com Ben K.

    My rankings would have Pedroia ranked third and Longoria ranked as high as second at their respective positions. While Rolen is better than Longoria overall, considering health and career paths, I’d take Evan for the future. I’m not sold on Mike Lowell’s career resurgence, and I’m very low on Melvin Mora right now.

  • http://prospectinsider.com JasonAChurchill

    Hill>Pedroia

    OBP isn’t EVERYTHING, Hill is better defensively and his .792 pure OPS is much more sustainable than Pedroia’s .823.

    Pedroia is a candidate to take a hit in the SLG department.

  • http://riveraveblues.com JimT

    The guy I would watch for is Adam Jones in Baltimore. He was in a really tough situation in Seattle last year with vetrans like Jose Guillen making life very unpleasant. He could really blossom with the O’s