Mar
10
AL East Player Rankings
ByThis is Part Two in my series of ripping off ideas from Jason Churchill at Prospect Insider. Yesterday I took a look at the best tools in the AL East, and now I’m ranking the best overall players. There’s no set formula used to determine the rankings, I basically went on track record and how I think everyone will perform this coming season. There’s not much separation between spots four and, like, 21, so don’t get too worked up if you disagree with a ranking. This wasn’t nearly as easy as you think.
I followed Jason’s lead and included some projected stats in the rankings, although my foray into sabermetrics won’t last much longer than this post. Thanks to Jason for giving me the okay to steal his ideas; I really appreciate it. The good stuff is after the jump.
| Top 25 Players |
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| No. | Player, Team | RAB Says… | |||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Alex Rodriguez, NYY | The best player on the planet. Period. | |||||||||||||||||
| 2 | David Ortiz, BOS | Too bad he can’t play even passable D. | |||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Manny Ramirez,BOS | Manny’s playing for an option. 160 RBI? | |||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Derek Jeter, NYY | 3.5 decent years away from 3,000 hits. | |||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Josh Beckett, BOS | He’s a douchebag … and a helluva pitcher. | |||||||||||||||||
| 6 | BJ Upton, TB | Bossman Jr. is still only 23. Crazy, huh? | |||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Jon Papelbon, BOS | And he’s only getting better. Oi. | |||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Mariano Rivera, NYY | Declining a bit, but still one of the very best. | |||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Scott Kazmir, TB | Highest Kper9 in baseball since his debut. | |||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Roy Halladay, TOR | 266 IP in ’03, hasn’t been the same since. | |||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Alex Rios, TOR | He’s just starting to scratch the surface. | |||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Nick Markakis, BAL | The best player no one talks about. Stud. | |||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Carl Crawford, TB | 990 career hits, and he’s only 26. Wow. | |||||||||||||||||
| 14 | Jorge Posada, NYY | Unheralded greatness, year after year. | |||||||||||||||||
| 15 | BJ Ryan, TOR | It’s easy to forget how dominant he can be. | |||||||||||||||||
| 16 | Chien-Ming Wang, NYY | Woulda won 22 in ’07 if not for hammy pull. | |||||||||||||||||
| 17 | Vernon Wells, TOR |
He couldn’t have peaked at age 27, right? | |||||||||||||||||
| 18 | Andy Pettitte, NYY | If he gets to 250 wins, is he a HOFer? | |||||||||||||||||
| 19 | Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS | Does he take that next step this year? | |||||||||||||||||
| 20 | Carlos Pena, TB | ’07 was likely a career year, but he’s still legit. | |||||||||||||||||
| 21 | Robinson Cano, NYY | 10th highest BA in baseball since his debut. | |||||||||||||||||
| 22 | Brian Roberts, BAL | How much longer will he be in the division? | |||||||||||||||||
| 23 | Scott Rolen, TOR | If he’s healthy, he could end up top 10. | |||||||||||||||||
| 24 | Bobby Abreu, NYY | Do they let him walk after the year? | |||||||||||||||||
| 25 | Mike Lowell, BOS | Was ’07 a rebound, or just a contract push? | |||||||||||||||||
| Starting Pitcher | |||||||||||||||||||
| NO. | Player, Team | 2007 FIP | James ’08 | CHONE ’08 | Marcel ’08 | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | Josh Beckett, BOS | 3.04 | 3.82 | 3.74 | 3.87 | ||||||||||||||
| 2 | Scott Kazmir, TB | 3.41 | 3.59 | 3.43 | 3.48 | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | Roy Halladay, TOR | 3.51 | 3.58 | 3.84 | 3.64 | ||||||||||||||
| 4 | Chien-Ming Wang, NYY | 3.75 | 3.99 | 4.13 | 3.95 | ||||||||||||||
| 5 | Andy Pettitte, NYY | 3.83 | 3.70 | 4.24 | 3.98 | ||||||||||||||
| 6 | Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS | 4.19 | 3.70 | 3.87 | 4.21 | ||||||||||||||
| 7 | AJ Burnett, TOR | 4.29 | 3.91 | 4.03 | 4.03 | ||||||||||||||
| 8 | Jamie Shields, TB | 3.82 | 3.65 | 3.93 | 3.98 | ||||||||||||||
| 9 | Jeremy Guthrie, BAL | 4.37 | 4.50 | 4.84 | 4.42 | ||||||||||||||
| 10 | Phil Hughes, NYY | 4.31 | - | 4.27 | 4.14 | ||||||||||||||
| Closer | |||||||||||||||||||
| NO. | PLAYER | 2007 FIP | James ’08 | CHONE ’08 | Marcel ’08 | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | Jon Papelbon, BOS | 2.41 | 3.03 | 2.88 | 3.22 | ||||||||||||||
| 2 | Mariano Rivera, NYY | 2.61 | 2.69 | 3.20 | 3.38 | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | BJ Ryan, TOR | 7.58 | 2.90 | 3.70 | 3.58 | ||||||||||||||
| 4 | Troy Percival, TB | 3.13 | 4.34 | 4.13 | 4.20 | ||||||||||||||
| 5 | George Sherrill, BAL | 3.07 | 3.36 | 3.77 | 3.95 | ||||||||||||||
| Setup | |||||||||||||||||||
| NO. | PLAYER | 2007 FIP | James ’08 | CHONE ’08 | Marcel ’08 | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | Joba Chamberlain, NYY | 1.78 | - | 3.58 | 3.47 | ||||||||||||||
| 2 | Hideki Okajima, BOS | 3.29 | 3.48 | 3.80 | 3.96 | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | Jeremy Accardo, TOR | 3.44 | 3.26 | 3.87 | 3.93 | ||||||||||||||
| 4 | Dan Wheeler, TB | 3.96 | 3.79 | 3.78 | 4.01 | ||||||||||||||
| 5 | Jamie Walker, BAL | 4.06 | 4.25 | 4.37 | 4.24 | ||||||||||||||
| Catcher | |||||||||||||||||||
| NO. | PLAYER | ’07 RC/27 | James | CHONE | Marcel | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | Jorge Posada, NYY | 8.90 | 6.39 | 6.27 | 6.49 | ||||||||||||||
| 2 | Ramon Hernandez, BAL | 4.36 | 4.72 | 4.92 | 4.98 | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | Jason Varitek, BOS | 5.61 | 4.98 | 5.17 | 5.13 | ||||||||||||||
| 4 | Greg Zaun, TOR | 4.85 | 4.46 | 4.82 | 4.74 | ||||||||||||||
| 5 | Dioner Navarro, TB | 3.25 | 3.79 | 4.48 | 437 | ||||||||||||||
| First Base | |||||||||||||||||||
| NO. | PLAYER | ’07 RC/27 | James | CHONE | Marcel | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | Carlos Pena, TB | 9.92 | 6.74 | 6.59 | 7.71 | ||||||||||||||
| 2 | Kevin Youkilis, BOS | 6.87 | 6.22 | 5.95 | 6.29 | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | Jason Giambi, NYY | 5.98 | 6.52 | 6.41 | 6.98 | ||||||||||||||
| 4 | Lyle Overbay, TOR | 4.17 | 5.86 | 5.52 | 5.43 | ||||||||||||||
| 5 | Aubrey Huff, BAL | 5.27 | 5.46 | 5.45 | 5.12 | ||||||||||||||
| Second Base | |||||||||||||||||||
| NO. | PLAYER | ’07 RC/27 | James | CHONE | Marcel | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | Robinson Cano, NYY | 5.93 | 6.36 | 6.29 | 6.07 | ||||||||||||||
| 2 | Brian Roberts, BAL | 6.61 | 5.50 | 5.84 | 6.09 | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | Akinori Iwamura, TB | 5.63 | 5.53 | 5.16 | 5.47 | ||||||||||||||
| 4 | Aaron Hill, TOR | 5.09 | 5.42 | 5.38 | 5.26 | ||||||||||||||
| 5 | Dustin Pedroia, BOS | 6.60 | 5.85 | 6.01 | 6.09 | ||||||||||||||
| Third Base | |||||||||||||||||||
| NO. | PLAYER | ’07 RC/27 | James | CHONE | Marcel | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | Alex Rodriguez, NYY | 10.49 | 8.46 | 8.59 | 8.34 | ||||||||||||||
| 2 | Scott Rolen, TOR | 4.42 | 6.36 | 5.67 | 5.19 | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | Mike Lowell, BOS | 6.88 | 5.67 | 5.89 | 5.26 | ||||||||||||||
| 4 | Melvin Mora, BAL | 4.55 | 5.13 | 4.97 | 4.79 | ||||||||||||||
| 5 | Evan Longoria, TB | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||
| Shortstop | |||||||||||||||||||
| NO. | PLAYER | ’07 RC/27 | James | CHONE | Marcel | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | Derek Jeter, NYY | 6.34 | 6.22 | 6.02 | 6.46 | ||||||||||||||
| 2 | Jason Bartlett, TB | 4.69 | 4.95 | 4.52 | 4.82 | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | Julio Lugo, BOS | 3.66 | 4.39 | 4.73 | 4.57 | ||||||||||||||
| 4 | David Eckstein, TOR | 5.17 | 4.44 | 4.55 | 4.79 | ||||||||||||||
| 5 | Luis Hernandez, BAL (eek) |
3.46 | 2.85 | 3.04 | 5.17 | ||||||||||||||
| Outfield | |||||||||||||||||||
| NO. | PLAYER | ’07 RC/27 | James | CHONE | Marcel | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | Manny Ramirez, BOS | 6.66 | 823 | 7.52 | 7.18 | ||||||||||||||
| 2 | BJ Upton, TB | 7.05 | 6.73 | 5.79 | 6.39 | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | Alex Rios, TOR | 6.68 | 6.03 | 5.96 | 6.01 | ||||||||||||||
| 4 | Nick Markakis, BAL | 6.12 | 6.90 | 6.37 | 6.13 | ||||||||||||||
| 5 | Carl Crawford, TB | 6.28 | 5.65 | 6.33 | 6.26 | ||||||||||||||
| 6 | Vernon Wells, TOR | 4.26 | 5.52 | 5.34 | 5.36 | ||||||||||||||
| 7 | Bobby Abreu, NYY | 6.19 | 6.63 | 5.79 | 6.62 | ||||||||||||||
| 8 | JD Drew, BOS | 5.75 | 6.45 | 6.35 | 6.32 | ||||||||||||||
| 9 | Hideki Matsui, NYY | 6.72 | 7.03 | 6.43 | 6.25 | ||||||||||||||
| 10 | Johnny Damon, NYY | 5.59 | 5.28 | 5.37 | 5.75 | ||||||||||||||
| 11 | Adam Jones, BAL | 4.30 | 5.70 | 4.63 | 4.68 | ||||||||||||||
| 12 | Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS | 8.66 | 6.88 | 5.56 | 6.58 | ||||||||||||||
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To be honest, I think a few Red Sox players are a little low, but overall I think this is fair. Varitek is better than Hernandez despite the age difference, and Dustin Pedroia is NOT the worst second baseman in the division– he’s better than Aaron Hill and his .333 OBP. Iwamura I’ll let slide because of future performance projection and his power in Japan.
In the top 25 did you value pitchers more than hitters?
http://knickerbockerchatter.blogspot.com/
Roy Halladay, TB …. um Roy Halladay plays for TOR not TB
minor error i’ll let you off with a warning
Off topic but Yankees scout watches Blanton from MLBTradeRumors.
Yankees Scouting Joe Blanton
According to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, the Yankees had a scout watching Oakland starter Joe Blanton on Sunday.
Blanton, 27, saw his salary escalate to $3.7MM this year as he reached his arbitration years. He’ll remain under team control through the 2010 season. The projection would change if Blanton switched to pinstripes, but PECOTA sees a 4.36 ERA in 187 innings from him this year (a performance valued at $8.8MM).
The Yankees are relying on Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte to front their rotation. They’ll round it out with Phil Hughes, Mike Mussina, and Ian Kennedy. Joba Chamberlain is expected to join the rotation mid-summer. I imagine the Yanks are just doing their due diligence with Blanton; a preseason trade doesn’t seem likely.
I agree on Nick Markakis. Absolute stud and nobody knows it until it’s time to draft your fantasy baseball team.
Hard to imagine Drew is better than Matsui.
bill james hearts hideki.
You know, I don’t have much to argue with, which probably means you did a good job. My biggest complaint would be having Manny too high (he’ll be better than last season offensively, but has clearly declined from his peak and is awful defensively.) I’d move Crawford up, and I’m not a Carl fanboy. And I’d probably move Pedroia up. Oh, and Jeter way down — again, crappy fielding.
My rankings would have Pedroia ranked third and Longoria ranked as high as second at their respective positions. While Rolen is better than Longoria overall, considering health and career paths, I’d take Evan for the future. I’m not sold on Mike Lowell’s career resurgence, and I’m very low on Melvin Mora right now.
Hill>Pedroia
OBP isn’t EVERYTHING, Hill is better defensively and his .792 pure OPS is much more sustainable than Pedroia’s .823.
Pedroia is a candidate to take a hit in the SLG department.
The guy I would watch for is Adam Jones in Baltimore. He was in a really tough situation in Seattle last year with vetrans like Jose Guillen making life very unpleasant. He could really blossom with the O’s