What can you do in 65 pitches?

June 3, 2008 by Benjamin Kabak 37 Comments

Over at the World Wide Leader, Jayson Stark penned a column that could really use an editor (or five) about the transition from reliever to starter at the Big League level. The column clocks in at 2634 words or about 40 words for every pitch Joba will throw tonight. Talk about tempered expectations. So my question to you, loyal RAB readers, as we while away the hours before Joba’s start is this: What are you expecting tonight out of Joba as he faces Roy Halladay in his first Major League start? And, yes, Mike, I know you’re expecting a 27-pitch, 27-out perfect game.

Ryan

I’m thinking 4 innings or so, maybe 1 run. good start to the transition.
mike

Lets see him pitch into the 4th inning, throw some secondary pitches, and pitch ahead in the count.

One would think the Jays will be aggressive early in the count if he is throwing strikes, and if he is a little wild they will let him pitch himself out of the game by taking alot of pitches.

With Halladay, they can be patient and wait for even a perfect-Joba to leave the game, as they will not need a ton of offense in this game with Halladay pitching.
http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

It’s 27 pitches, 27 ground balls. He can give up a hit, as long as he makes up for it with a first pitch GIDP later in the inning. It’s all about pitch efficiency fellas.
- tommiesmithjohncarlos
  
  screw that. I want Joba to throw a perfect game in 26 pitches.
  
  No sense tempting fate and risking injury.
batty

I think he’ll barely get out of the third and get a bit shelled. I just have a feeling he hasn’t used his secondary pitches enough and when he’ll try for it they’ll be waiting.

And that’s OK – because it’s what development is about.
- batty
  
  Sorry, meant get out of the second into the third.
mike

Listening to the Angry Puppy…..he is an idiot, and while he has to be an idiot to be well-paid, i hate the drama.
The big guy also had a probative comment – getting an out with 8 pitches is not as good as getting an out with one pitch. Brilliant
- mike
  
  big fella also has a tremendous respect for Halladay..I guess we can all genuflect now at the brilliance which is Francessa
Mike R.

Q: What can you do in 65 pitches?
A: Strike out 21 and force two ground outs.
E-ROC

Isn’t the Blue Jays offense terrible? I’ll have to go with 5.2 innings of 3 hit ball with 1 BB and 4 K.
Phil McCracken

I’d be happy if he could pitch 4 complete innings. K’s and ER aren’t really important as I’d look at this like a Spring Training start.
The Scout

The consensus says four innings, and I agree. I expect he’ll be tentative at the outset and use extra pitches in innings one and two. Two runs in four innings and I’ll be satisfied. Anything better is whipped cream with a cherry on top.
BigBlueAL

4 innings, 3 hits, 2 bb’s, 4 k’s, 1 er
- steve (different one)
  
  i’d sign on to this prediction.
  
  i’ll be happy if he goes 4.
Manimal

Realistic Prediction
4 IP, 2 H, 1 BB 4 K

Hopeful Prediction
5 IP(W) 1 H 8 K(Picks off only baserunner)
- mustang
  
  Agree.
Manimal

BTW, its impossible for 27 outs w/ 27 pitches because most people swing and miss versus Joba.
- Glen L
  
  meaning its not impossible, just highly improbable :)
  
  Cano seeing a 6 pitch AB .. now THAT is impossible
  - Manimal
    
    40% chance he does good but not good enough vs Holiday
    30% chance he makes Toronto look really bad
    10% chance he gets his First Win as a starter
    10% chance he throws a CG Shut out
    6% chance he pitches a no-no or Perfect game
    3% chance he gets his pitch count up really fast
    1% chance he chokes under pressure
    - Manimal
      
      crap I hatee posting under the wrong message.
    - Alvaro
      
      80% there’s a fist pump.
- steve (different one)
  
  i am not sure “impossible” means what you think it means.
- A.D.
  
  Do they make him throw 38 pitches in the pen if he goes for the 27 pitch perfect game?
  - http://riveraveblues.com Mike A.
    
    No. They all bask in his Jobanian glory, then start him again tomorrow.
Ben B.

I say he works into the 5th inning and leaves mid-inning to cheers because the game is still close, whether ahead or behind. Not that we should expect him to be middling, but for this first outing, I think the crowd will be generally appreciative if he just doesn’t suck.
RustyJohn

Are we placing bets or something? There needs to be some money involved…regardless…

4 2/3 IP, 4 hits, 3 BB’s, 4 K’s, 3 runs, 2 earned.
whozat

I’d like to think 4. The Jays are a really patient team and know that Joba’s on a pitch count, so they’ll probably take a lot of pitches. If he attacks the zone with quality strikes, I think he could put them all in holes really quickly and force them to start swinging at his pitch instead of waiting for theirs.

If he tries to go out there and strike everyone out without letting them put the bat on the ball, he’ll be out of there in 3.
Simon B.

3 1/3 IP
5 hits
2 walks
4 ER

Not particularly optimistic on the first start. I think they may have rushed this.
Mike R.

Over/under time:

3.5 IP
2.5 ER
3.5 K
1.5 BB
0.5 Run lead at the exit of the game.

Place your bets now. The winner will be prominently posted in a future RAB article that may or may not be published.
RCK

I’m not optimistic about the result, but I’m still really excited to see him pitch. I’m thinkng 3.2 IP 7 hits 3 runs.
Brian

Check this out from an mlb.com article:

‘At least for the purposes of Tuesday’s game, the Blue Jays were taking the knowledge that Chamberlain was out of the eighth-inning mix as a positive.

“It’s better than facing him for that one at-bat in the eighth, when you know you have Mariano Rivera coming behind him,” Jays first baseman Lyle Overbay said.’

Though it won’t be tonight, this made me realize how the first time Joba pitches through the 8th and Mo pitches the 9th will be the absolute sweetest moment of silence for the reliever-believers.

I say he gets in 4 IP and Giese pitches 4, and then Mo for 1.
- http://knickerbockerchatter.blogspot.com/ Bruno
  
  HERE HERE
eddyb

4.1IP (Joe’s gonna let him hear the ovation from the Stadium crowd) 5H, 2ER, 7K, 3BB and a 4-3 Yankee win … maybe?? hopefully?? please??
Charlie

Hope:
5 IP, 4H, 2 ER, 6 K

Expect:
3-4 IP, 5-6 H, 3R, 3K

Either way, it’s an exciting day for Yankees fans, and the stadium will absolutely go bananas when he’s done, and on the final out of the (hopefully) win.

Cheers,
http://RiverAve.Blues Joseph M

I have very little confidence this will go well. I don’t like the way he has been preped for this start or for that matter anything that has happened since spring training (he should have been in the rotation from day one).

The more see of this team the more I’m biginning to think the Yankees need a whole new vision, a vision Cashman is not capable of.
- pete
  
  how many times are people going to have to say this until everyone finally gets it?
  Innings. Limits.
  Joba Chamberlain flat out cannot go through a full season as a starter at this stage in his career. He needs a transitional year. They could have left him a starter all year in the minors and cut him short in august or so, which in the long run, may have been the best choice, as it would have given him more of an opportunity to develop his curve and changeup, but that would have meant sacrificing one of the system’s best arms for a full season. He cannot, however, be a starter from april to october, which amounts to about 200 innings, after throwing only about 120 innings last year. There is too much risk in that. If you don’t understand or like a decision, at least read about why it was made before complaining about it.
RustyJohn

Can I amend my prediction to 2 innings?