Feb
11

Bobby might be donning a new uniform soon

By

It’s hard not to feel bad for Bobby Abreu. The dude has put up solid numbers his whole career, and when he finally hits free agency he’s faced not only with a declining market, but also with a glut of free agents who play his position. His stock has plummeted over the course of the winter; that three-year, $48 million contract is nothing but a dream. The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo even said that the “feeling is that he may have to sign for about $3 million.” This for a guy who has put up an OPS+ of 120 or better every season since 1998 (except for 2007, when his horrid May brought his OPS+ down to 114).

Word came late Tuesday that Abreu is in serious talks with the Angels, a team that is quite an obvious fit. The Angels have an OBP problem: They have just three returning players who posted an OBP better than .340 in 2008, and two of them are 33 years old. Despite the money owed to outfielders, the Angels could sure use another one. Sure, they have Vlad Guerrero, Torii Hunter, Gary Matthews, and Reggie Willits, but they don’t combine for a very good outfield. Adding Abreu not only gives them another bat, but it affords them an OF/DH rotation which could put up some decent numbers.

In fact, by the time you read this, Abreu could unofficially be an Angel. Ken Rosenthal reports that the Angels have asked for outright waivers on Nick Green — no, not the former Yank — which would give them a roster spot for a free agent signing. They’re said to prefer Abreu to Dunn, and given the rumors of the past few hours it seems that it’s only a matter of time before Bobby ditches his pinstripes for a halo.

As Rosenthal notes: “Two general managers with interest in Abreu said Tuesday that they were told he was headed to an American League team.” That could, of course, mean the Mariners, who are also reportedly interested in Abreu, and with good reason. They lost Raul Ibanez this winter, and Wladimir Balentin hasn’t been exactly what they’d hoped…yet. Abreu on a one-year deal would make sense for them, but as Ryan Divish notes, the team “has yet to put together a trade of Jarrod Washburn or Miguel Batista (Carlos Silva is untradeable) to free up some money to sign Abreu to a one-year deal.” So all signs point to the Halos.

What does this mean for our Baseball Between the Numbers contest? Here are the people who had the Angels:

Jake H: 2 years, $14 mil
Nath Yanks: 2 years, $15.5 mil
Nikhil R.: 1 year, $9 mil
Spaceman Spiff: 2 years, 16.5 million
Zach Sanders: 1 year, $6.5 million

Looks like it will be a runoff between Nath and Zach.

Categories : Hot Stove League

54 Comments»

  1. Spaceman.Spiff says:

    Blast!

  2. E-ROC says:

    Didn’t Bobby Abreu take even less money; ’cause I think the White Sox offered him $8 million on a one year deal. Or was that deal just a rumor?

  3. Mike A. says:

    Wait, they’re waiving Nick Green? Really?

    If that’s the most disposable player on their 40-man, then they’re in damn good shape. He’s a nice little young, back-end type pitcher with 6 years of team control ahead of him. He’ll get claimed.

  4. Ben K. says:

    So does this mean Bobby’s going hit .400/.600/.800 when the Yanks and Halos play? That’s how Anaheim works, right?

  5. E-ROC says:

    I remember many fans were complaining how much Giambi’s contract was an albatross. Well, Gary Matthews makes that contract look like a steal.

    • whozat says:

      I think they have another year til the Hunter contract looks that same way, frankly.

      • dan says:

        I don’t really think so. Hunter has been extremely consistent on offense the last 5 years. Unless he really takes a turn for the worse, I think they’ll get what they expected when they signed him. The contract wasn’t great to begin with, but I don’t think anyone’s opinions of it will change in the next year or two. I could obviously be proven horribly wrong.

        • whozat says:

          His OPS+ has averaged around 110 for that whole period, and his defense is falling off. Sure, maybe he doesn’t fall off a cliff next year…but they’re surrounding him with sub-par defenders now, and I think an OPS+ of 105 with average defense is really not worth the money they’re paying.

          • …and I think an OPS+ of 105 with average defense is really not worth the money they’re paying.

            09:$17.5M, 10:$18M, 11:$18M, 12:$18M

            Um, yeah, I’m going to totally agree with you on that one.

            I regret not signing Carlos Beltran. I have no regrets whatsoever about not signing Torii Hunter (or Aaron Rowand, for that matter.)

  6. dan says:

    The rounded corners on these comment boxes just seem ever so slightly odd to me. Not really sure why.

  7. Manimal says:

    WTF?!? Ichiro might pitch for the WBC and he was clocked at 92 mph! ESPN just said it on sportscenter but I can’t find a link.

  8. pat says:

    No way seattle would let that happen.

  9. Jay CT says:

    About the book… just out of curiousity- if there is an option on the contract, does that make it a 2 year deal according to your contest, or is it a 1 year deal?

    • Joseph P. says:

      One year. We’re just talking the guarantee here.

      The more interesting question: If there’s an option with a buyout, since the buyout is guaranteed money does that count toward the figure?

      Yes. That makes everything pretty uniform. Guaranteed money.

  10. Dave says:

    That PECOTA ranking you guys posted has the angels finishing in second place in the west to the A;s. Their record is 79-83. One, the angels had the best record in baseball last year and were the games only 100 win team at exactly 100-62. they just signed abreu and escobar is coming back at some point. Lackey is pitching in his contract year. And are the A’s THAT much better with Holliday this year? I think Holliday has a ton to prove outside of coors and their pitchers are extremely young and mostly unproven. Giambi will help but who knows how much … Ducsherer was fantastic last year but he still has a lot to prove as well. The rest of those guys, I just have no idea what they will produce next season

    . Thas a ton of risk in that rotation. The angels on the other hand, still have nothing but potential aces in their rotation when escobar is back. It is probably one of the best in baseball barring health. I dont know when escobar is coming back but lackey and santana at the top are still pretty good. Throw in escobar and its outstanding. Weaver can still turn it around or if not, be a good backend starter. Saunder could have a big year. Anderson was not a huge loss for them and they got abreu to replace his bat which is an upgrade offensively in that spot. Figgins should be much better in 2009. I dont mind fuentes closing for them because they have a solid corps. Abreu batting in that lineup with figgins, vlad and hunter makes it better than before and I am a big fan of kendrick and napoli. The offense certainly leaves something to be desired without Tex in there but they were not doing THAT badly before him. I still think the A’s dont really hold a candle to them because the pitching in LA is so superior to that in oakland. I think the angels edge them out by quite a significant margin.

    • Chris says:

      They scored 765 runs and allowed 697. That translates to an expected record of 88-74. The key for projections is to go off of this as a starting point since the difference between the expected record and the actual record is mostly luck. A slide from 88 wins to 79 doesn’t sound as ridiculous.

      • pat says:

        DoN’T fOrGeT TEH K-rOD FacTOR!!1!!11

        slams face on desk

        Hey, sorry guys I blacked out whats going on?

        • Bo says:

          Anyone that calls a team that wins 100 games mostly luck doesn’t know the game.

          The game isn’t played on a stat sheet or as part of regression analysis.

          • Anyone that calls a team that wins 100 games mostly luck doesn’t know the game.

            Anyone who doesn’t understand that good luck can turn an 88-win team into a 100-win team doesn’t know history, mathematics, or, for that matter, baseball itself.

            The game’s history is FULL of teams that mysteriously underperformed or overperformed their expectations in a given year. And in a 162 game season, 12 games really isn’t that much. The Angels went 31-21 in one-run games. That’s a 10+ swing right there; the league average is .500. By comparison, the Red Sox went 22-23 in one run games. But not only is the fact that the Angels were 10 games over .500 in one-run games indicative of good fortune, the fact that they had that many one-run games in the first place is indicative of good fortune.

            The game isn’t played on a stat sheet or as part of regression analysis.

            No, it’s not. But it is analyzed on a stat sheet and with regression analysis. The game is full of interesting questions, like “How does a team with an offense as shitty as the 2008 Los Angeles Angels win 100 games in the first place?” Stat sheets and analysis provide answers to some of those quirks in the game, like pointing out that several of the Angels mediocre pitchers drastically outperformed their FIP’s (like Jon Garland, Dustin Moseley, Joe Saunders, K-Rod, and Jose Arredondo).

      • Dave says:

        Wow. Their pythagorean win projection was only 88 and they won 100 games. That is a big difference. I did not realize that. I guess 88 to 79 is reasonable but I dont think its likely. I think escobar has a lot to do with it as well. Does anyone know when they expect him back? Having a rotation of Lackey, Escobar and Santana as the top three does not sound like a 79 win team to me at all. And they lost krod but fuentes is pretty good. Even not considering any of this, do you really think the angels are going to lose the division to the A;s this year. I have no confidence in their rotation whatsoever and their offense is not exactly jaw-dropping. Who knows what Holliday’s numbers will translate into?

        • Dave says:

          Bo,
          I dont look up the pythagorean win-loss at the end of the year for every team. I didnt realize they were only projecting to 88 wins. That is a massive difference and it definitely changes my thought process a bit. But i still think the angels are better than the A’s no?

  11. Donald Duck says:

    “It’s hard not to feel bad for Bobby Abreu.” That was the laugh line for me. I do not feel sorry for guys who make millions of dollars to play baseball when a lot of good honest hard working people are having trouble buying food for their families in the good ole US of A.

    Bobby is half of a very good baseball player, if that. Really he is a very good DH. Horrible in the field (and ALWAYS was), very good at the plate, horrible on the bases. At one point he had a gun for an arm (the only thing that was ever good at in the field for Bobbito)

    • Joseph P. says:

      Geeze. We’re talking about it in a baseball context. No need to jump to the moral high ground.

      So on a baseball related note, I’m not sure where you get horrible on the bases.

      • Donald Duck says:

        In a baseball context the only guy I am feeling sorry for is the guy in AAA not quite making a living, being away from his family staying off PED’s and being held up in AAA because the guy who plays his position on the big team is a user.

        That dude I feel sorry for.

        Ever watch Bob on the bases? Not quite as lost as Giambi, but without the speed he had in his early Philly days he stinks. Even with his speed he was never very good on the bases.

      • Donald Duck says:

        I also think most guys who are into statistic analysis would be very happy that guys who are mediocre to poor in the field are starting to get contracts that take that into consideration. I think that is a good effect from the GM’s finally valuing players more correctly. That is one positive I can see from some of the new statistical analysis. Although I do not think you need advance stats to figure any of that out, but it did seem that the modern GM is using that as the basis to make these deals happen.

        • That is one positive I can see from some of the new statistical analysis. Although I do not think you need advance stats to figure any of that out, but it did seem that the modern GM is using that as the basis to make these deals happen.

          You may not “need” sabermetrics to create a revolution in the way GM’s value certain talents, but it’s certainly been a useful kick in the butt, wouldn’t you say?

          Like Congress and steroids: Congress didn’t need to intervene to cause the MLB to beef up it’s steroid policy, but it’s hard to envision the MLB changing their steroid policy of its own volition without the shove Congress gave them…

    • A.D. says:

      At one point he had a gun for an arm (the only thing that was ever good at in the field for Bobbito)

      That’s actually not true, while Bobby is a pretty bad defender now, he was an above avg defender in his prime with the Phillies.

      • Donald Duck says:

        I know I know watching a guy day in and day out means nothing on here. Being as I watched him play in person hundreds of times in person, tons of times on TV I know Bobby was never good in the OF. In a Yankees uni Bob was a little bit slower than he was in his prime as a Philly but he actually worked harder to try to make good plays most of the time.

        Any knowledgeable Phils fan would tell you Bob was never very good in the OF.

        I do not make a ton of opinion comments about players that I did not see enough to make them. Only time in Bobby career I did not see him was in Houston, ever since he went to the Phils and then the Yanks I kept a pretty close on him. Even hung out with the dude before. Nice guy, very good hitter but those are the only good things I can say about him.

        • I know I know watching a guy day in and day out means nothing on here.

          Nobody has ever said that. What we have said is that visual eyewitness memory is an imperfect medium of evaluation prone to variegated accuracy, and thus it MUST be combined with unemotional statistical analysis.

          Please don’t misrepresent the positions of people you disagree with. We try to not do that to you.

          Any knowledgeable Phils fan would tell you Bob was never very good in the OF.

          Many knowledgeable Phils fans are wrong. Many knowledgeable Yankees fans are wrong. Many knowledgeable people all the time are wrong about all sorts of stuff because they think they’re way more knowledgeable than they really are.

          I’m just saying…

  12. Bo says:

    The Angels are getting an outright steal.

    Whoever gets Dunn will get another steal.

    • My Geass Makes You My Slave says:

      They’re gonna need them to replace Teix.

    • Donald Duck says:

      While I think Bobby is a very one dimensional player, if you can scoop him cheap enough and get him at least half of his at bats at DH he is a heck of a bargain.

      If we could not get Manny, and did not have Matsui already inked I would have loved to get Bob for our most of the time DH.

  13. Goosemania says:

    Thats a lot of OF… plus they just signed Rivera, I really dont understand this move.

  14. Nady Nation says:

    So, roster-wise, without any monetary considerations, we’re basically trading Abreu for Teix. Seems like a fairly decent transaction.

  15. Zach Sanders says:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....by-ab.html

    MLBTR says he signed

    Might want to check the “Beyond the Numbers” contest. I believe I won.

  16. A.D. says:

    The Angels are going to be facing a cliff on their outfielders aging. At least for their sake they have some young infielders.

  17. Januz says:

    This is a good signing by the Angels (Just like Fuentes (although losing Teixeira and Krod really takes them two steps back)) That being said, I do not know what is a WORSE division the AL or NL West? So they should have a cakewalk to the division title.
    You can make a good argument that the three best teams in the AL are the Yankees, Sox, and Rays, and one of these three will get shafted for the likes of the Angels.

    • Zach Sanders says:

      Agreed about the three best teams. However, don’t be surprised if the A’s win the West. They need their pitching to hold up, but if it does they will be dangerous.

      Plus, they could still bring in Orlando Cabrera.

    • This is a good signing by the Angels (Just like Fuentes (although losing Teixeira and Krod really takes them two steps back))

      Dunn would have been a better signing by the Angels, regardless of whether you’re putting him in RF or at DH.

      And I disagree that losing K-Rod was a step back; there’s virtually no difference between KRod and Fuentes. In fact, Fuentes is probably a bit better, and he’s a lefty, and since they saved both money and years on the deal, that was a big win for them.

      K-Rod, 2008: 3.22 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 68.1 IP, 10.14 K/9, 4.48 BB/9
      Fuentes, 2008: 2.24 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, 62.2 IP, 11.78 K/9, 3.16 BB/9

  18. Nikhil R. says:

    What was the order of importance for the contest? Team then years then money right?

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