Project Prospect’s Organizational Rankings

BtB's Three Facts
A theory about Jeter's frustration

It’s prospect season, which is why you’re seeing oodles of lists and rankings and projections coming out. The guys at Project Prospect posted their list of organization rankings today, ranking each club’s farm system based strictly on position prospects.  Despite lacking in that department, the Yanks still came in 17th thanks primarily to the 1-2 punch of Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero. I think the Marlins are the clear leader in position player prospects with Cam Maybin, Logan Morrison, Mike Stanton, Matt Dominguez, Kyle Skipworth, Chris Coghlan and Gaby Sanchez. That’s just not fair.

Also, make sure you check out this THT article on minor league defensive statistics. That should be useful.

BtB's Three Facts
A theory about Jeter's frustration
  • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

    If we threw in pitchers, how far up could the Yankees system shoot?

    • Ryan S.

      I’m curious about that too. The article said they’ll be putting up pitching and overall rankings in the near future so we shall find out eventually. I would expect we’re in the top 5 for pitching, and we’ve gotta be at least 12th or 13th overall if we’re 17th based on our weakest link.

      While we do lack depth for position players, it does speak pretty highly of AJax/Montero/Gardner for being able to basically carry our ranking and keep us in the middle of the pack.

      • Thomas

        For starting pitching, off the top of my head, I have us at like 7th. In no particular order, I’d say we are behind Tampa, Texas, Oakland, Boston, Atlanta, and Baltimore. If I think about it more, maybe we drop another one or two spots. Our problem for pitching is that our best/high upside prospects are very far away. However, we do have a lot of depth and we have some prospects with “ridiculous upside.”

        • My Geass Makes You My Slave

          It’s better if they’re far away. CC, Wang, and Joba are young guys. AJ is only 32. Pettitte is our only old guy and he’ll likely be retired after this season. What better way to end a career with a possible World Series in the very first season of the new stadium? Phil Hughes can take his spot next year if he develops. Then we still have Aceves and Ian Kennedy. I don’t see how we can fit space for them unless Joba is in the bullpen. Fat chance.

          • Ryan S.

            Assuming everything goes according to plan (CC/AJ/Wanger/Joba stay healthy and awesome, Andy retires with one more ring, and Phranchise is ready to kick ass as a big league Yankee in starting in 2010 for the entirety of his amazing, 20 year HOF career) then…

            Aceves = Longman.
            Ian Kennedy = tradebait.

  • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

    “Center Field: Yordany Ramirez +29, Gorkys Hernandez +26, Peter Bourjos +24, Rashad Eldridge +23…

    …Hernandez, only 20 last season, has shown enough patience to make you think he could develop into a decent top of the order hitter, though his bat is nowhere near ready. He rates at +53 runs over two-and-a-half minor league seasons.”

    hmm… interesting…

  • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

    Austin Jackson, minor league defensive statistics according to http://www.minorleaguesplits.com :

    2005: 18 GCL Yankees CF – 65 outs in 116 chances, UZR: +5
    2006: 19 Charleston CF – 238 outs in 451 chances, UZR: -14 (UZR/150: -19)
    2007: 20 Charleston CF – 107 outs in 186 chances, UZR: +1
    2007: 20 Tampa CF – 155 outs in 252 chances, UZR: +3 (UZR/150: +7)
    2007: 20 Trenton CF – 29 outs in 40 chances, UZR: +7
    2008: 21 Trenton CF – 214 outs in 393 chances, UZR: -13 (UZR/150: -20)

    Aggregate minor league UZR for CF: -11 in four years

    • Ryan S.

      That data does not match what I’ve been hearing about his defensive performance in CF. Pretty disappointing.

      • steve (different one)

        how reliable can play-by-play based metrics be for minor leaguers?

        • Ryan S.

          I have absolutely no clue. I’m just assuming it’s as equally reliable as it is in the majors … which is to say, there’s certainly a debate about how valid and accuracy that data is.

    • rbizzler

      Saw that too. BG only rates as an average CFer as well (close to what we have heard on scouting reports). My question pertains to how stable the metric is as Cam Maybin had a 25 run swing over a two season period before grading out average last year. Seems somewhat volatile, but I have not had a chance to take a good look at their evaluation tools.

  • Reggie C.

    That generous ranking is why Opp has to select the best available bat with the 1st round pick. If he selects a pitcher then let it be someone like Casey Kelly or Ethan Martin (two 1st rounders from last year who were also 1st round hitting talents as well).

    • http://www.new.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/profile.php?id=594331910&ref=name Jamal G.

      Selecting based on need in the first round – or two – is foolhardy for a team like the Yankees. They have the resources to adopt the BPA strategy – they should use it.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        Agreed. If the best player on the board at #29 is a pitcher, take a pitcher.

        Now, then, if the best player on the board is a pitcher but he’s not hands down the best player on the board, i.e. there’s some debate between him and another position player who’s neck and neck with him, like, say, #20 ranked (according to KLaw) RHP Jason Stoffel and #24 ranked 3B Bobby Borchering both fall to us, I could see Oppenheimer saying that while Stoffel is probably a better player, the difference of opinion is so slim between the two that we can take slightly for need between these two relatively evenly matched prospects. But I don’t want to be bypassing a bunch of pitchers ranked in the 20’s to take a bat ranked in the 40’s or anything like that. That’s nonsensical.

        • kSturnz

          I like goodwin or marisnick out of HS seniors; thy may need to fall for us to draft them, though. Givens was Beckham’s teammate, but we won’t get him

  • mryankee

    I know its not very chic to say the Yankees system is not to bad. I actually think pitching will be fine maybe I am overly optomistic but I believe Phil Hughes will be a good pitcher and with Joba, AJ, CC and Wang if he pitches out of the 4 or 5 spot that would be fine. I also think the biggest question is in the field where I see the only real question upcoming being shortstop-3b arod 2b cano 1b texeira and cather either montero-romine-fryer. CF Austin Jackson and then maybe left field maybe Holliday and rightfield Montero. I dont thik this is a bad team at all and its certainly younger and more athletic. I think the depth in pitching if you include melancon-betances-brackman-hereida is excellent. I am throwing out this thought please feel free to agree or disagree-and what is the story on Fryer I have read that some scouts in the Brewers org are not very happy they let him go.

    • Ryan S.

      The thing about the Yankees in particular is that while yes, of course, prospects are a very valuable commodity that is necessary for success … its not quite as necessary for us as it is for other teams, due to the exorbitant amount of money we can spend on free agents. As long as we make wise choices in our FA acquisitions, having a middle of the pack minor league system with some standouts here or there works out just fine. The fact that we have a good amount of depth in our pitching prospects is great – its much easier to acquire quality hitters on the market than it is to acquire quality pitchers (especially starters). Having a MUST WIN NOW team every year also means we don’t have the time to develop as many players as other organizations do, since we need everyone on the team to perform at a high level in order to ensure success.

      Also, an outfield of Holliday-Jackson-Montero may be younger than what we currently have … but it sure as shit wouldn’t be more athletic.

    • erik

      fryer is not a top flight prospect we just need romine/hygashioka/jesus to turn into a starter because cervelli can hold down the back up

  • andrew

    i love how they calls montero “the jesus”…
    praise be to Mo

  • THU

    I vomited when I saw the Mets ahead of the Yankees. Seriously something came up and I think it was that burger I ate last night.

    • steve (different one)

      relax, they’ll screw it up somehow.

  • My Geass Makes You My Slave

    We might want to start training Mo’s heir.

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      We have been. His name’s Mark Melancon.

      (and if that’s not good enough for you, we’re got plenty of backup plans.)

  • http://ranger2709.blogspot.com Old Ranger

    Mo replacement is Melancon (down the line).
    Johnnys replacement is A-Jax.
    Molinas replacement is Cervelli (for short time).
    Of course this is just my projection but, I believe it to be accurate (nice if I am right).

    2010 I like A-Jax-LF, Brett-CF and Swisher-RF with Melky as the rotating guy. All predicated on both Melky and Brett playing up to league +, or better, if not…we go to plan “B”…what ever that is!
    This year it will be Johnny, Brett and Swisher with Nady/Melky, as the swing men. That all goes with a caveat, if all of them are healthy and Cash/Joe think Brett can do the job.
    A-Jax can play all three OF position (as can Melky), whereas, Brett is much better at CF then the other two positions. Swisher can also play all three positions plus 1st base, even though CF is his worse spot. Nady can play the corners.