What are the odds?

Tomko solid, but it might not be enough
First replacement park to open in April

As we get closer to the start of the season, Las Vegas is spewing out lines for everything. How many games will Joba win? Which manager will be the first fired? What’s the over/under on Derek Jeter‘s batting average?

If betting is your thing — of if you’re just curious to see how the oddsmakers are favoring the Yanks — check out this gem from Mark Feinsand. The betting site Bodog passed on the numbers for the Yanks, and things are looking fairly rosy for the Bombers, at least on paper.

The site pegs the over/under for Yankee victories at 95.5 and gives them 9/2 odds to win the World Series. The Red Sox are right behind them at 11/2, and the Cubs land the third spot at 8/1. I guess no one told them that the Cubs last won the World Series during the waning days of the administration of Theodore Roosevelt.

Interestingly, the Yanks are 2/1 odds to win the AL Championship but just 6/5 odds to win the AL East. The Red Sox are at 5/2 and 6/5 respectively. Bodog is giving 1/2 odds that the wild card will be from the AL East. The defending AL Champs are pegged at 8/1 to repeat, and the Phillies are pegged at 15/1 to take a second title in a row.

As for personal Yankee milestones, they offer up nothing on A-Rod beyond 7/1 odds for the AL MVP. Mark Teixeira seemingly has the best shot in the league with 5/1 odds, and CC Sabathia is your presumptive front runner for Cy Young at an AL-leading 5/2.

Finally, Joe Girardi is third on their managerial hot seat list. Bodog is giving 5/1 odds that Girardi will be the first one fired this year. Only Jim Leyland (Tigers, 2/1) and Ron Washington (Rangers, 3/1) are facing more odds-related scrutiny. I’ll list the rest of the over/unders here, and the full odds list appears after the jump.

Over/Unders
Yankees victories: 95.5
Mark Teixeira home runs: 32.5
Mark Teixeira RBI: 115.5
Derek Jeter batting average: .303
Johnny Damon batting average: .287
CC Sabathia wins: 16.5
A.J. Burnett wins: 14.5
Joba Chamberlain wins: 13.5
Mariano Rivera saves: 37.5

Odds to win the 2009 World Series
Yankees: 9/2
Boston Red Sox: 11/2
Chicago Cubs: 8/1
Mets: 8/1
Los Angeles Angels: 14/1
Philadelphia Phillies: 15/1
Arizona D-Backs: 16/1
Tampa Bay Rays: 18/1
Atlanta Braves: 20/1
Los Angeles Dodgers: 20/1
Cleveland Indians: 20/1
Minnesota Twins: 24/1
Detroit Tigers: 25/1
St Louis Cardinals: 25/1
Oakland Athletics: 25/1
San Francisco Giants: 30/1
Chicago White Sox: 40/1
Milwaukee Brewers: 45/1
Florida Marlins: 50/1
Texas Rangers: 60/1
Cincinnati Reds: 60/1
Toronto Blue Jays: 75/1
Colorado Rockies: 75/1
Kansas City Royals: 75/1
Seattle Mariners: 80/1
Pittsburgh Pirates: 100/1
Houston Astros: 100/1
San Diego Padres: 100/1
Washington Nationals: 125/1
Baltimore Orioles: 150/1

Odds to win the 2009 AL Championship
Yankeees: 2/1
Boston Red Sox: 5/2
Los Angeles Angels: 11/2
Tampa Bay Rays: 8/1
Cleveland Indians: 8/1
Detroit Tigers: 10/1
Minnesota Twins: 14/1
Chicago White Sox: 15/1
Oakland Athletics: 16/1
Texas Rangers: 25/1
Toronto Blue Jays: 40/1
Seattle Mariners: 50/1
Baltimore Orioles: 50/1
Kansas City Royals: 60/1

Odds to win the 2009 AL East Division
Yankees: 6/5
Boston Red Sox: 6/5
Tampa Bay Rays: 5/1
Toronto Blue Jays: 5/1
Baltimore Orioles: 35/1

Which Division will the AL Wild Card come from?
AL East: 1/2
AL Central: 2/1
AL West: 4/1

Odds to win the 2009 AL MVP
Mark Teixeira: 5/1
Alex Rodriguez: 7/1
Dustin Pedroia: 10/1
Grady Sizemore: 2/1
CC Sabathia: 15/1
Evan Longoria: 15/1
Matt Holliday: 20/1
Ichiro Suzuki: 20/1
David Ortiz: 20/1
Derek Jeter: 40/1
Johnny Damon: 40/1
A.J. Burnett: 60/1
Mariano Rivera: 75/1
Joba Chamberlain: 100/1

Odds to win the 2009 AL CY Young
CC Sabathia: 5/2
Josh Beckett: 4/1
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 5/1
Roy Halladay: 10/1
Cliff Lee: 10/1
John Lackey: 10/1
A.J. Burnett: 15/1
Mariano Rivera: 30/1
Joba Chamberlain: 40/1
Chien-Ming Wang: 50/1
Andy Pettitte: 75/1

Who will be the first MLB manager fired in the 2009 MLB Season?
Jim Leyland: 2/1
Ron Washington: 3/1
Bud Black: 5/1
Joe Girardi: 5/1
Cecil Cooper: 15/2
Clint Hurdle: 15/2

Tomko solid, but it might not be enough
First replacement park to open in April
  • http://www.new.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/profile.php?id=594331910&ref=name Jamal G.

    Why are the Rays and Jays given the same odds to win the division?

    • http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_postseason.jsp?c_id=nyy&playerID=121250&statType=2 Slugger27

      evan longoria is apparently more likely to win the mvp than matt holliday… that seems even weirder to me

      i know holliday is on a team less likely to make the playoffs, but thats crazy in my book

      • Mike R. – Retire 21

        Most people are expecting a drop in numbers with the switch from Colorado to Oakland. I think it’s doubtful he puts up a line similar to last years.

        • http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_postseason.jsp?c_id=nyy&playerID=121250&statType=2 Slugger27

          maybe a SLIGHT dropoff… but the guys a damn good hitter, terrific fielder, and beane will have him steal 25 bases

          longoria hit 272 with a 343 obp last year… clearly hes a solid player with a bright future, but hes not in hollidays league yet, not even close

          • andrew

            MVP’s rarely get credit for good defense, and I’m fairly certain that Billy Beane is anti-steals because he doesn’t want to give away outs. So if anything, Holliday’s steals will decrease.
            Also, Longoria hit .272/.343/.531, and Holliday’s career numbers away from Coors are: .280/.348/.455
            While his home numbers are: .357/.423/.645
            The advantage Holliday holds in avg and obp away from Coors is made up for by Longoria’s enormous advantage in slugging. It actually looks like if Longoria improves slightly this year, he’ll far surpass Holliday’s numbers away from Coors.

            It doesn’t look like Holliday is in for a “slight” drop off to me and to say they aren’t in the same league… well… the numbers say otherwise.

            • steve (different one)

              you can’t just assume Holliday’s road numbers will equal his 2009 numbers.

              it makes no sense to throw away half the data.

            • http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_postseason.jsp?c_id=nyy&playerID=121250&statType=2 Slugger27

              “the numbers say otherwise”

              no they dont. why do ppl throw away hollidays home stats? did they not happen? did they take place in some parallel universe?

              theres somethin u need to realize… EVERYONE performs better at home, regardless of what the park is like… they hit better, they field better, and they pitch better… just look at all 30 teams won loss record at home and on the road… PEOPLE PLAY BETTER AT HOME

              of course coors helps his numbers some, but to totally dismiss them as if they never happened when comparing to longoria is insane… im too lazy to look it up, but longoria likely has worse stats on the road too.. EVERYONE does

              holliday has had 4 full seasons of hitting over 300 and slugging over 500… longoria had 3/4 of a season hitting 272 with a nady-type obp

              longoria is no holliday, at least not yet, and the do not say otherwise

              • http://www.riveraveblues.com Ben K.

                And you’re ignoring park effects. When you’re talking about someone’s home stats in Colorado, you can’t just flat-out ignore park effects.

                • steve (different one)

                  no he isn’t.

                  this is what he said:

                  “of course coors helps his numbers some, but to totally dismiss them as if they never happened when comparing to longoria is insane”

                  which is 1000% correct.

                • andrew

                  Well all I’m saying is…
                  Firstly, for a guy who has average 13 steals per year over his 5 year career, it’s hard to expect him to grab 25 when he’s moving to a team that actually runs less than most. Sure, he had 28 last year, but that’s the outlier here. I don’t see how you can say Billy Beane is going to have him run a lot when Beane is known to be against stealing bases.

                  Secondly, yea, most guys play/field/pitch/hit better at home, but
                  the difference between .280/.348/.455 and .357/.423/.645 is not just due to Holliday feeling comfortable at home.
                  Also, it’s funny you mention Longoria has better states at home, because “everyone does.” These are his splits:
                  Home: .253 /.326/.545
                  Away: .293/.361/.516

                  My main issue was not your comparison to Longoria however, it was when you said that Holliday will “maybe” have a “slight drop off.”
                  I think it’s pretty likely that Holliday has a pretty decent drop off.

              • http://www.RunningLocal@wordpress.com Bob@RunningLocal

                Don’t be lazy. Longoria had a slightly higher Road OPS (.877 vs. .871), a much higher Road BA (.293 v. .253) and he hits many more doubles on the road but twice as many homers at home. Overall, in 2008, Longoria was better on the road than at home. In terms of Holliday, Coors Field is the third best park in the league for HRs and Runs Scored, best for singles. McAfee in Oakland plays middle of the road for HRs, bottom half for other significant factors. Holliday is a good hitter– no question– but he will likely see a fair sized downturn in his stats not only for loss of the extremely friendly environment at Denver but also because he’s changing leagues, which almost always causes a downturn in offensive stats, at least for the first half of the first season as batters face new pitchers throwing a different style than NL pitchers do.

                Holliday’s Coors numbers aren’t meaningless– they serve as a baseline from which we can subtract to find his likely 2009 numbers.

                • steve (different one)

                  Holliday’s Coors numbers aren’t meaningless– they serve as a baseline from which we can subtract to find his likely 2009 numbers.

                  that’s all i’m sayin’…

                • andrew

                  Thanks Bob, you said it better than I did.

  • Artist formerly known as ‘The’ Steve

    “Interestingly, the Yanks are 2/1 odds to win the AL Championship but just 6/5 odds to win the AL East.”

    2/1 odds translates to 10/5 for the ALCS. Those are longer odds than 6/5 they get for winning the AL East. There’s nothing odd about that, you would expect the odds to get longer as you go deeper into October for everyone.

    BTW-6/5 odds for winning the AL East is ridiculous. That’s almost even money. It tells you they can’t get people to bet their money against the Yanks, so the house is offering little to no return. You rarely see preseason Baseball odds that low, they are typically 2-1 or 3-1 at the lowest.

  • Troy

    Wow…those odds are ridiculous.

    I see the Rays winning the division to be honest.

    • http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_postseason.jsp?c_id=nyy&playerID=121250&statType=2 Slugger27

      No WAY

  • MurrayPresent

    This is like doodling on a piece of paper and getting paid for it. With weather, injuries and the impact of travel schedules on a team so unpredictable, I don’t even see how anyone can spend time trying to lay odds on these things. Baseball is a house built on shifting sand. “They have a good shot…” or “They’ll never get out of the basement” are sweeping statements that are made every year and frequently disproved (see ’08 Rays). To pinpoint it even finer than that is just mindless activity.

    • andrew

      Yea, baseball is unpredictable, but sports betting is a big business. People spend time laying the odds on these things because people care to bet on them. It’s not hard to say before the season that the Yankees and Red Sox have a very good chance to win the world series, the Angel’s have a decent chance, and the Royal’s have essentially no chance. What’s wrong with assigning numbers to those statements?

      • steve (different one)

        exactly. also, the initial odds are simply to entice people to bet.

        if too many people are taking the Yankees, the oddmakers will move the odds to entice people to bet against the Yankees.

        an oddsmaker isn’t really saying “these are the odds that team X has to win the WS”. they are setting a line so that they have equal bets on either side. all of the bets offset each other, and they make money on the VIG.

        • andrew

          Right, for example, Greg wrote before about Joba’s win over/under being 13.5, and I think most of us on here would be happy if he surpassed that. However, many people overly buy into the hype and set unrealistic expectations like a 18 win season and then take the over. It’s not about predicting reality, it’s about predicting everyone else’s perception of reality.

  • me

    115.5 RBI for Tex as the over/under? I’d definitely take over on that. Jeter, Damon and Gardner (in the #9 slot) batting in front of him? He should be able to rack up more than 115.

    • anonymous

      Id be thrilled with 115

  • greg

    Under on Joba’s wins seems like a great bet, and betting against the Blue Jays to win the division, they have no chance and are being given wayy too much credit

    • andrew

      Yea, I agree, I don’t really see him getting to 14 wins. I was thinking more in the 10-12 range.

  • http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_postseason.jsp?c_id=nyy&playerID=121250&statType=2 Slugger27

    if papi couldnt win the mvp in 05 while dhing, hes got 0% chance of ever winning it again, 20/1 is a suckers bet of epic proportions

  • http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_postseason.jsp?c_id=nyy&playerID=121250&statType=2 Slugger27

    it sucks to be the orioles…. clearly theyre not the worst team in baseball, and i think we could all agree theyre better than the nats, padres, pirates, etc…. but theyre stuck in the damn al east

    • anonymous

      Cry me a river. Id like to see a 100 year 4 way tie for 5th place in the AL East. To hell with everyone else.

  • 27 this year

    I am pysched!!!!!! I just got bleacher tickets for the yankees-cubs game on Friday for about 30 bucks a seat. Oh yea!!!!

    • steve (different one)

      how did you get them, stubhub? i think i need to do this.

      • 27 this year

        yea