2009 Draft: KLaw’s Mock Draft

May 27, 2009 by Mike Axisa 93 Comments

Keith Law’s mock draft hit ESPN’s site last night, and although it’s hidden behind the Insider wall, I can tell you that he has the Yanks taking Texas prep southpaw Matt Purke in the first round. Purke is widely considered to be the second best prep LHP in the class, trailing only Tyler Matzek of California. KLaw mentions that Purke’s price tag conveniently shot up earlier this month, which could allow him to drop out of the top 15, where his talent and power arm says he should be taken. Here’s a clip from Purke’s showing at the Under Armour All-American Showcase. Klaw also notes that the Yanks’ backup plan includes polished college players. That saddens me.

Here’s Law’s updated top 100 draft prospects list, also posted yesterday. Unfortunately, that’s Insider content too. He has Purke ranked 13th overall, just ahead of USC SS Grant Green and HS 3B Matt Davidson.

Doug

Mike,

Is Purke a no-brainer is he falls to us?
- http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa
  
  I believe so. You’re not supposed to get arms like that at the end of the first round.
  - Doug
    
    and you pay him whatever it takes to get him? is he a signability concern?
    - http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa
      
      Yes, and somewhat. $2.5-3M should get it done, but the Yanks will pay whatever they need to pay since the don’t get another comp pick this time around.
      - Doug
        
        but knowing that, can’t the agent ask for something completely ridiculous
    - JohnnyC
      
      His agent (that is, “advisor”) is asking for $3 million. Eh, it’s small change for the Yankees. Unlike Cole, he will sign if offered anything near that sum.
      - Chris
        
        Everyone thought the same thing about Cole. It wasn’t a money issue with Cole – they never made an offer because he changed his mind and decided to go to college. There’s no reason that Purke (or any other HS draftee) couldn’t make the same decision.
        
        http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
        
        While that’s true, the number of HS kids that turn down multiple millions of dollars to go to college are few and far between.
        
        I think Cole is the exception and not the rule.
        
        Reggie C.
        
        … and that is what scares me about Donovan Tate.
Doug

Law has the Sox taking Stassi in front of us. If for some reason both Stassi and Purke are sitting there, who do you take?
- http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa
  
  Purke, he’s the better prospect.
  - http://161stStreet.wordpress.com Chris A
    
    If that is the case then why wouldn’t the Sox take Purke?
    - Doug
      
      they have a major organizational hole at catcher
      - MattG
        
        Yes, but they need a catcher now, not in 2014.
        
        Doug
        
        well, unfortunately they may have joe mauer in 2 years
        
        Reggie C.
        
        they might not be able to wait. i still think Theo is waiting for the price to lower on Salty.
        
        http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
        
        I don’t think the price is going to lower on Salty.
Doug

Mike,

You see guys like Tate and Mier slipped out of the 1st. Purke over those guys as well?
- http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa
  
  Mier definitely. Tate’s interesting. If he falls, he’s a candidate to keep falling into the mid-to-late rounds. The options are:
  
  a. Take Tate, hope you sign him, and most likely lose out on Purke
  a. Take Purke, sign him, then have a small chance at Tate later
  
  I’ll go with b.
  - Doug
    
    Yeah, if b. gives you a shot a 2 top 15 talents, that’s the way to go.
    
    Is Tate a signability issue….is that the reason for the fall?
    - MattG
      
      I hear he’s an athlete, not a baseball player. Being that San Diego is supposed to be considering him at #3, the Pads have to take him with their second pick if he’s still there, right?
      - Doug
        
        you would think.
        
        this is what law writes about the pads and #3: “If they don’t take Donovan Tate, he starts falling and it’s unclear where he stops.”
      - http://mantisfists.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/julius-carry-aka-shonuff.jpg The Honorable Congressman Mondesi
        
        Depends on how much $ he’s looking for, I’d think. If he’s looking for top of the 1st round money, the Pads may not have that in their draft budget for a second (or later) round pick.
JohnnyC

Bittle should have taken the Yankees’ money last year. Now, it looks like the Yankees may have lucked out instead.
- http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa
  
  Seriously.
- Doug
  
  yup, big shoulder concerns
- Stryker
  
  baseball writers were criticizing the yankees left and right for what happened in last year’s draft (the cole situation and the failure to sign their second round pick), but i always thought it was so freakin’ obvious as to why they didn’t sign bittle as well – and now that he’s continuing to have injury concerns i think the yankees made the smart move.
  - Doug
    
    didn’t follow the draft that closely last year. if there were injury concerns last year before the draft, why did we pick him in the first place?
    - Stryker
      
      IIRC, those injury concerns didn’t show up until after the yanks selected him and had him checked out before offering up the money to sign him.
      - Doug
        
        makes sense…thanks
  - Reggie C.
    
    I don’t know…
    
    Bittle would’ve likely signed for slot money. He pitched well this season too. Didnt he register a sick k/9 number this year? Even if his shoulder injury is surgical, he’d at least be in the system already. Dude has been excellent as a reliever.
    - http://www.riveraveblues.com Benjamin Kabak
      
      Dude has been excellent as a reliever.
      
      Unless we’re talking Mariano-type talent, wasting early picks on relievers is a bad idea.
      - Reggie C.
        
        I didnt argue that the Bittle selection was good. I only say that once it was made, the Yanks should’ve signed him for slot. At least he’d be in the org. Last I cared to read on that whole matter, the Yanks didn’t offer him slot money.
        
        Mariano-type talent?? C’mon Ben. How many 1st round relievers have that going for ‘em?
        
        http://www.riveraveblues.com Benjamin Kabak
        
        How many relievers do you see in the first round? Relievers who were first round picks are generally failed starters. Hell, even Mariano is a failed starter.
        
        That’s my general point: You’re already limiting the potential of your pick by taking a reliever in an early round.
        
        Reggie C.
        
        2008: Ryan Perry. Joshua Fields.
        
        I can’t blame the Mariners for picking Fields. They thought Brandon Morrow was gonna be fine as a starter, but Morrow pulled the plug on the team’s vision after the Fields pick.
        
        I dont follow the Mariners so i dont know if Fields is already with the ML team. Regardless, M’s now have 2 closers apparently. Selecting a closer in the 1st isnt a bad way to go.
        
        http://www.riveraveblues.com Benjamin Kabak
        
        The Mariners got utterly slammed for those picks. In fact, those two picks were one of the reasons why the Mariners have a new GM this year. Just because it happened doesn’t mean it’s a good draft policy.
        
        Doug
        
        Sometimes teams draft a closer in the 1st round if they want quick help in their pen, correct?
    - A.D.
      
      He was pretty sick as a starter this year too.
Stryker

Klaw also notes that the Yanks’ backup plan includes polished college players. That saddens me.

while it may be the best idea to stick with the strategy of best player available, like you said earlier mike, they don’t get another comp pick next time around.

it’s a bit obvious that the failure to sign cole shook them up a bit and in a draft where the yankees wouldn’t have had a first round pick to begin with – i can see why their backup plan is like that.
Jake H

Purke is so slim. I bet he adds some weight and velocity as he fills out. I really want him now with Mier in the 2nd round if he falls that far.
- Doug
  
  but would mier last to 76
- Reggie C.
  
  BA had Mier going in the mid 1st round in their mock draft v.1.0. Mier doesnt have an apparent signability issue, no strong college commitment, and defensive actions to stay at SS. There’s risk in HS bats, and Mier is scrawny, but talent wise he’s a first-rounder. Guess Klaw must have a different read on Mier.
  - Doug
    
    could also just be that law’s mock is 2 weeks after BA’s. BA’s v2 may say something different.
Drew

Purke’s delivery looks a little different then most young guys. Looks like he throws at 3 quarter then to almost a side arm on some pitches.
JohnnyC

Just a question about the Yankees’ developmental strategy: since it’s clear that the organization likes to subtract a secondary pitch(a slider usually)from a prospect’s repertoire in the early days in order to refine their mechanics and hone their fastball control, why is it that the most consistent problem faced by these prospects when they come up is, alarmingly, throwing strikes?
- Doug
  
  If you’re referring to guys like Betances and Brackman, their lack of command has more to due with their size than anything else. Pitchers that tall often have a difficult time maintaining their deliveries and keeping a consistent release point.
- http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa
  
  That problem isn’t unique to the Yankees. Almost all young pitchers come up and struggle with their command and try to be too fine, nibbling on the corners instead of pounding the zone.
  - Reggie C.
    
    BUT CLAY LAPTOP THREW A PERRFECT GAME SORTA !0ll! FIRE CASHMAN ALREADY!1l
    - KW
      
      good job?
      - JobaWockeeZ
        
        That was sarcasm?
        
        radnom
        
        I’m Ron Burgandy?
        
        http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
        
        Why don’t you go back to your home, on Whore Island?
dane bramage

Elbow concerns me.He seems like he slings the ball whip like.
- Spaceman.Spiff
  
  I’m no scout but he seems to use very little of his lower body. He plant leg just plants, he doesn’t seem to drive down on that leg at all. I’m sure that’s something that will be worked on under the right coaching.
JohnC

Law said last week Yanks are looking hard at OF David Renfroe in the 2nd round.
Rod

I don’t like his mechanics. He does a pretty classic inverted W so unless he is a genetic freak, he’s going to be an injury concern.
- Chris
  
  Why is it referred to as an ‘inverted W’? Isn’t it just an M?
  - MattG
    
    I think its a sideways 3.
  - Rod
    
    Depends on the font.
Doug

You read that Selig lowered recommended slot $. What a joke as obviously nothing is enforceable.
A.D.

I would really prefer for a bat to fall.
Doug

according to law, both tate and mier will
- Doug
  
  meant to reply to you with this, A.D.
- A.D.
  
  Appreciated, after all we aren’t all insiders!
  - http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
    
    This is why the Yankees built that moat around the expensive seats. To keep the riffraff plebes like you out, A.D.
Stryker

i still like davidson or purke for the first pick should they be available.
- Doug
  
  law has the brewers taking davidson at 26
  - Stryker
    
    ah that’s brutal. soooo close to the yanks’ 29
    - Doug
      
      yeah, he’s slipping a bit because he may not be able to stay at 3B apparently
Stryker

the MLB draft is so nuts. this thread inspired me to take a look at some prospect sites/mock drafts (project prospect, BA, what’s left of saber scouting, etc.) and it’s crazy to think how many names were and are linked to the yankees.
- http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
  
  I think one mock had the Yankees taking Stephen Curry.
  - Stryker
    
    hahahahaha.
  - donttradecano
    
    Past a diving Rubio.
MattG

I would think Boston would take Purke if he got to them. Actually, I would bet the two most similar boards in the room will be BOS and NYA. It so sucks to pick right after Boston.
http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

1 (29): LHP Matt Purke, Klein HS (Tex.)
2 (76): OF Angelo Songco, Loyola Marymount
4 (135): RHP Keyvius Sampson, Forest HS (Fla.)
5 (165): OF Kentrail Davis, Tennessee
- Doug
  
  would sampson and davis fall that low? law has them ranked 98 and 92, respectively.
  - http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
    
    That was just my stab in the dark, but Davis has been rumored to be a candidate to slide for forever, since he’s a Boras client and a draft eligible sophomore.
    
    I figured Sampson may slide just because he’s a highschooler.
    - Chris V.
      
      4 (135): RHP Keyvius Sampson, Forest HS (Fla.)
      
      That would be amazing if he fell that far.
Stryker

i think it’s pretty clear that the ’06 draft has been the best of any draft the yanks have had in recent years (currently has a grade of ‘A’ by BA’s 2009 prospect handbook). what do you think they need to do this year to have a quality draft (aside from signing their 1st and 2nd round picks)?
- MattG
  
  Walk in with a shirt that says “Natinals?”
http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

My favorite KLaw line from the mock:

16. Arizona Diamondbacks – A.J. Pollock, cf, Notre Dame: The D-backs are the harlots of the 2009 draft, because if you work the phones, you’ll learn that they are interested in every player in this draft. Rules restrict them to one player per pick, however.
Alex

I’m a BC student and go to most of the home BC baseball home games. Every game I get more impressed by Catcher Tony Sanchez. I think Mike did a piece on him a few weeks back. I would really love to see the Yanks draft him at 29. He may not be available, but he would surely be a great fit for the team. In being a college player I believe he is closer to the majors then a guy like Montero. In addition, he plays above average defense and has showed great progression at the plate in his tenure at BC. Thoughts?
- Stryker
  
  he’s one of the many names linked to the yankees. problem is the red sox pick before the yankees do. boston’s got the organizational need for a catcher AND sanchez is a local guy. i think the red sox take him.
- Reggie C.
  
  Tony Sanchez fits the rumoured “polished college player” backup option the Yanks would go if Purke isn’t there. He’d make more sense than Stassi.
  
  However, though I agree that Sanchez could make the majors before Montero, I wonder if Austin Romine’s development into a solid doubles hitter would preclude the org from going catcher that early. KLaw doesn’t have JARED MITCHELL going before the yanks select. That’s a very intriguing college OF right there..
  - Doug
    
    fyi, law moved mitchell down 11 spots in his updated top 100:
    “The tools are there, but the pitch recognition is not.”
- MattG
  
  But they can’t sign him AND dominican Gary Sanchez, can they? Can you have 2 catching Sanchezes?
  
  Through in the Jets’ Sanchez, and that is far too many signal calling Sanchezes signed in one year by one city.
  - http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
    
    Maybe sometime in 2012/2013, we can play a doubleheader with a Humberto Sanchez /Gary Sanchez battery in Game 1 and a Romulo Sanchez/Tony Sanchez battery in Game 2.
    - AlexNYC
      
      ICWUDT.
Corey Nord-Podberesky

anyone know anything about matt graham?
Colin

How does Tony Sanchez compare to Buster Posey. Less defense, more offense? I keep hearing Sanchez is the most polished college catcher and that seemed to be the same with Posey who was taken Top 10 while Sanchez might not get taken till the Supplemental round
- daneptizl
  
  Definitely not more offense.
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