Peavy-to-Chicago the season’s first blockbuster

Assessing Hughes' stay
2009 Draft: Yanks show interest in Renfroe

According to reports on both ESPN and SI.com, the Padres and White Sox have agreed on a deal that would send Jake Peavy to Chicago in exchange for perhaps 2007 first-rounder Aaron Poreda and two or three other players. Peavy must waive his no-trade clause for the two teams to consummate this deal. The right-handed pitcher would be moving from the pitcher-friendly NL West to the AL Central and is due a guaranteed $49 million from 2010-2012. If this trade is contingent upon the White Sox’s picking up Peavy’s $22 million 2013 option, it would involve quite an investment.

Meanwhile, the White Sox are 17-22, 5.5 games out of first in the central. While Peavy clearly makes them better right now, I’m not sure it’s enough for them to take on the Tigers. After all, run scoring and not run prevention has been the White Sox’s main problem this year.

Assessing Hughes' stay
2009 Draft: Yanks show interest in Renfroe
  • AndrewYF

    So the White Sox basically have to win now, because their future is bleaker than most teams in baseball.

    Kenny Williams, everyone.

    • http://www.new.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/profile.php?id=594331910&ref=name Jamal G.

      Yeah, but if the package is fronted by Richard and Poreda then I agree with Mike’s latest Tweet:

      If Poreda and Richard are the headliners of the Peavy package …. Kevin Towers epically failed.

      • Thomas

        According to MLBTR, it is possible for Gordon Beckham to be in the deal as a PTBNL. I agree with you though it is an epic fail for the Padres, unless they get Beckham.

      • AndrewYF

        I dunno, Peavy has lost a lot of value over the past few years:

        1.) The Padres have zero leverage whatsoever. Everyone knows they’re screwed financially.
        2.) Peavy has not been as good a pitcher, which is scary considering he plays in the best pitchers park in baseball, against the worst competition. He also has serious health concerns.
        3.) His contract is no longer a bargain, especially if his $22 million option has to be picked up as a trade condition.

        I wouldn’t even give up Hughes straight-up for him.

        • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tADvb3yyhwM Slugger27

          I wouldn’t even give up Hughes straight-up for him.

          me neither… not for that contract… hell i wouldnt even give up IPK for him if we had to take on the whole contract

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

          What are these serious health issues everyone keeps talking about? He missed a month with a sore elbow last year, but other than that he’s never missed a start.

          • AndrewYF

            Isn’t that the elbow he’s always had trouble with? It’s not a good sign when it’s still popping up.

        • http://www.new.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/profile.php?id=594331910&ref=name Jamal G.

          I wouldn’t even give up Hughes straight-up for him.

          Neither did the ChiSox. Richard and Poreda are not the prospects that Hughes are, and they’re the headliners.

          • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tADvb3yyhwM Slugger27

            can u compare their prospect status with anyone in the yankees system? im not familiar with them and i wanna better guage the trade before i judge kenny williams on it

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              I’d say
              Poreda = Melancon, but better since he’s a lefty
              Richard = slight upgrade on Phil Coke

              • Jacob

                Wow

              • daneptizl

                I don’t see the Melancon, Poreda comparison.

        • Whizzo The Wize

          Whizzo must respectfully disagree.

          Peavy’s line for the last three years (5/22/06-5/20/09):
          3.16 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, .79 HR/9, 3.30 K/BB.

          He has the second highest K/9 rate of any pitcher over that time (next to Scott Kazmir) with more than 450 innings pitched (a paltry 150/year, but a fair cutoff for decent, healthy starters in Whizzo’s mind). Now admittedly, his BB/9 over that same time-frame is a bit less stellar, but he’s still in the top 35 (that’s good?) (uhhhh, Whizzo, back away from the stats….back away…)

          Sure, the ballpark has helped Peavy’s ERA, and HR rate for sure, but how does a ballpark affect the strikeout rate?

          Peavy’s good. Whizzo’s got an open mind, so counter-facts are always welcome. But to Whizzo’s eye, The Chi-Sox got themselves an ACE.

          • Whizzo The Wize

            Oh, the stats Whizzo cites can be found at the most excellent BaseballMusings.com day by day database. Whizzo can’t recommend it enough.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              Well said, Whizzo.

              Peavy is still a stud and it’s a deal the Sox should have made. But, had they given up more than just Poreda and Richard, like, say, Beckham, it would have been a bad move, because while Peavy is good, the question remains how long will he truly be that good (and how much did Petco help him?)

              • Whizzo The Wize

                Whizzo did a little digging on the prospects involved, and they seem like they’ll be serviceable MLBers, but not stars.

                That tips the trade to the Sox in my mind by a smidge, but Whizzo thinks the Padres were in it all for the money.

                Towers should’ve done this over last winter. Whizzo’s not sure he could have though, given the Cubs talk meltdown.

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                  That tips the trade to the Sox in my mind by a smidge,

                  Urge to kill… rising…

                  THIRD PERSON, WHIZZO, THIRD PERSON!!!!!

                • Whizzo The Wize

                  That tips the trade to the Sox in my Whizzo’s mind by a smidge,

                  Apologies. Whizzo will now ritually beat himself with the 2004 Red Sox Press Guide.

                • jsbrendog

                  whizzo holds the wwe belt for most ietc’s

          • Chris

            I have no idea why, but Peavy’s career K/9:

            Home: 9.6 K/9 (761 K in 714IP)
            Away: 8.3 K/9 (564 K in 608IP)

            • Whizzo The Wize

              That is quite interesting.

              Whizzo wonder’s if the 1k less per 9 can be accounted for interleague games at AL stadiums? It doesn’t seem like there’d be enough of them to affect the numbers by a whole K, but without doing the digging (and Whizzo has better things to do, like helping Angel Berrora collect his Social Security check) that’s just wild speculation on Whizzo’s part.

          • Peedlum

            Other than Manny, who can hit in the NL West?

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              Do the Giants still have Barry Bonds? No?

              Then nobody. The answer is, nobody.

            • Whizzo The Wize

              everyone at Coors Field?

              • AlexNYC

                Bengie and Sandoval?

  • http://www.new.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/profile.php?id=594331910&ref=name Jamal G.

    MLB.com’s Corey Brock and Scott Merkin say that Richard and 2007 first-round pick Aaron Poreda are possibly the headliners of the return package: http://tinyurl.com/qlgw5k

  • http://eastrutherfordrant.com donttradecano

    I’m not sure it’s enough for them to take on the Tigers Royals, who will overtake the Tigers and win the division.

    Fixed

  • http://theyankeeuniverse.com Moshe Mandel

    Never wanted Peavy, fine by me. And I like the Twins in that division, recent poor play aside.

  • http://eastrutherfordrant.com donttradecano

    Run scoring, not running scoring.

  • E-ROC

    Maybe Dayan Vicedo will be a part of the deal too.

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tADvb3yyhwM Slugger27

    thats a hefty contract to take on… i dont think peavy is worth that going forward, and certainly not worth that and giving up good prospects

  • Thomas

    What is everyone’s opinion of Poreda? From what I’ve heard he has a good fastball and throws strikes, but lacks true command of his pitches. Also, how is his breaking stuff?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      He’s a reliever long term, great fastball, 95-97 from the left side, but just an okay slider and not much of a changeup. He’ll be a real good lefty reliever, but he’d still be just a reliever.

      • Thomas

        Ok, that was my take on him.

    • zs190

      Reliever until he shows a quality second pitch at the very least. Nice arm, very good fastball, but that’s all he’s got.

  • A.D.

    Seems like an odd move for the Sox (depending on how much other talented prospect is shipped out), but Peavy, Buerhle, Danks, Colon, and a back on track Gavin Floyd would be a damn nice rotation.

  • http://www.teamnerdrage.com leokitty

    How will Peavy help their decrepit offense?

    • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tADvb3yyhwM Slugger27

      pinch hit for alexei ramirez… theres your upgrade

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

    From my season prediction post on April 6th:

    http://riveraveblues.com/2009/04/projecting-the-league-community-style-9856/#comment-319452

    Trades and junk:
    -San Diego finally trades Jake Peavy to the Cubs for Josh Vitters, Sean Marshall, Kevin Hart, and Hak-Ju Lee
    -Colorado trades Aaron Cook to the surprisingly frisky White Sox for Aaron Poreda, Jose Martinez, and Jon Gilmore

    Do I get partial credit? I had the Sox trading a package centered around Poreda for a starter, and I had Peavy traded to a Chicago team…

    • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tADvb3yyhwM Slugger27

      i give it a 55 on the 20-80 scale

    • Andy In Sunny Daytona

      Partial credit. 50% still = FAIL.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        Eh, I’m just auditing the course. No biggie.

        • Andy In Sunny Daytona

          Your grade can still improve, depending on all the parties involved.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            While I’m taking the test, would you ming holding my wallet for me? You know, there’s a thousand dollars in there… or maybe there isn’t. You know what I’m saying?

            • Andy In Sunny Daytona

              K omitet
              G osudarstvenno?
              B ezopasnosti

              • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                Are there any Paraguayans here? No?

  • V

    Dumb trade for the White Sox.

    Exciting, but dumb.

  • A.D.

    So what would this be in terms of Yankees prospects, i.e. what caliber of prospects are the Sox giving up in terms of the rumors?

    Is it equivalent to WDLR + Kontos + Someone else, or more than that?

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      I’d rate both Poreda and Richard as mid level guys. If they were in our system they’d be firmly below the stud prospects of Joba, Hughes, Brackman, Montero, AJax, but better prospects than WLDR and Kontos.

      I’d put them in the IPK/Betances stratosphere.

      • Thomas

        From the info I’ve found, I’d say Richards is a worse version of Kennedy. Poreda is a left-handed version of Andrew Brackman minus Brackman’s curve. Those are probably the best comps I can think of.

        • V

          Hmm – doesn’t seem like the Padres are getting as good of a deal as I’d have thought, then.

          • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tADvb3yyhwM Slugger27

            but they are getting rid of peavy and his salary… thats probably all they need to make the trade a win in their eyes

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

          Richard is terrible. He’s Ian Kennedy with less command and less stuff.

      • A.D.

        So in theory we could deal healthy IPK & Betances and get Peavy…interesting.

    • AndrewYF

      In that case, I would have rather Cashman traded Kennedy, McAllister, Kontos + crappy guy for Peavy in the offseason rather than sign Burnett.

      • whozat

        We have no idea if this deal was AVAILABLE in the offseason. The Padres definitely didn’t know just how far behind they’d be 1/4 of the way into the season. Maybe their owner didn’t know just how boned his wallet would be.

      • Tampa Yankee

        1. the Padres would have had to accept that
        2. Peavy would have had to accept a trade to NY and if I remember correctly, he wanted to stay in the NL

        I am a not a fan of these “We should have traded so and so…” ideas. Who is to say Cash didn’t?

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        In that case, I would have rather Cashman traded Kennedy, McAllister, Kontos + crappy guy for Peavy in the offseason rather than sign Burnett.

        Meh, I don’t know. I was firmly anti-Burnett deal, but I don’t know that Peavy is a slam dunk vs. signing Burnett.

        Burnett:
        2009: 16.5M
        2010: 16.5M
        2011: 16.5M
        2012: 16.5M
        2013: 16.5M
        TOTAL – 82.5M

        Peavy:
        2009: 8M
        2010: 15M
        2011: 16M
        2012: 17M
        2013: 22M
        TOTAL – 78M

        Financially, it’s a wash. Peavy is unquestionably the better, younger, and healthier pitcher, but I wonder if, over the next 5 years, Peavy by himself is really better than Burnett + McAllister + IPK + other stuff. Take Peavy out of that pitchers park and weak division and I think the gap between him and Burnett narrows a bit Is the gap still big enough that it’s worth giving up IPK and Z-Mac over? Yeah, probably, but I’m not kicking myself over it.

        I still prefer option C: Derek Lowe on a 4yr/60M.

        • daneptizl

          The thing is we would have Peavy still in his prime as opposed to Burnett’s 32-36.

          • whozat

            I’m assuming TSJC was taking that into account in his evaluation.

            • dkidd

              peavy is younger/better, but

              peavy wanted nothing to do with nyc
              aj wanted to play in nyc
              aj brought whipped cream

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              Yup.

              There’s a lot to like about Peavy, a lot more to like than about Burnett and that age difference is a big key.

              But, I still worry now what I worried then: about Peavy’s slight build and violent delivery meaning that he’s an injury/decline risk to my layman’s eye, and that Peavy’s splits (career .613 OPSA at home, .735 OPSA on the road) and divisional adjustment (weak NLW vs. tough ALE) means that while Peavy would pitch better than Burnett as a Yankee, I’m not sold that he’d necessarily pitch MUCH better as a Yankee.

              • Mike Pop

                Agreed, would not be worth the prospects to give up when the difference would not deem it necessary.

                Don’t you think Peavy in the AL East the past 3 years would have done pretty much exactly the same thing as Burnett?

                I mean, everyone here knows I’m #1 Burnett fan but Peavy’s career ERA outside of Petco is 3.82. Right on target with Burnett’s career average there, now while Peavy will be younger and that gives him the advantage, I’d rather have Burnett as FA considering keeping Z-Mac, IPK, etc.

                Burnett is just frustrating because he is so dominant except for 1 or 2 innings a game, it seems like.

                • Drew

                  Maybe it’s just me but I’d rather 3, maybe even a 4th being Wang, of our pitchers rather than Peavy. Burnett being one of them.
                  Joba, CC, Burnett and probably Wang.

  • zack

    Pretty much anything is an upgrade for the Padres system right now. The farm flat out stinks, and getting some live arms in there certainly helps. Doesn’t really seem, between this trade and the offseason, that they really could have done much better. Just not that much of a market for Peavy, between the NTC, the salary, and the focus on prospects.

    Peavy is really really really good, having watched him a lot here in SD. His pitches move so darn much that he throws a lot of pitches and walks guys, but even away from Petco has put up great #s…

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

    Here’s what the Sox are rocking with now:

    2009:
    28 Peavy 8M
    30 Buerhle 14M
    26 Floyd 750k
    24 Danks 520k
    36 Colon 1M
    37 Contreras 10M (sunk cost)
    Total: 34.27M

    2010:
    29 Peavy 15M
    31 Buerhle 14M
    27 Floyd 2.75M
    25 Danks (first arb year)
    Total: 35M-ish

    2011:
    30 Peavy 16M
    32 Buerhle 14M
    28 Floyd 5M
    26 Danks (second arb year)
    Total: 40M-ish

    Buehrle’s contract is up after 2011. That’s a pretty cost-effective rotation, all things considered. Yeah, you don’t want to be paying a 32 year old Jake Peavy 22M in 2013, but if Floyd and Danks remain fairly cost-effective, if they hit on another one of their young pitchers, maybe you let Buerhle walk and keep the pitching staff payroll in the low 40M’s.

    • zack

      And its not unreasonable to expect Peavy to still be quite good at that point. Not really 22M good (who is really?), but considering 8M, 15M, and 16M are pretty darn reasonable for a front end power pitcher in his prime, the contract really isn’t bad for them

    • Thomas

      I have to agree a front three of Peavy, Buerhle, and Danks should be good for the next 3+ years. However, Floyd is lousy and they don’t really have any minor league pitchers that could fill the five spot, so they would probably have to fill that hole from outside the organization (most likely free agency since the White Sox have a bad farm system, which is now worse, preventing a trade). Until you know who is their fifth starter, you really can’t say how cost effective their rotation is.

  • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

    I feel like Towers should’ve gotten more.

  • Axl

    Why is it that every other team can trade mediocre prospects to acquire top talent (with cheap affordable contracts) but the Yankees are always expected to give up their best or it’s a no-go.

    • jsbrendog

      see:

      bobby abreu/cory lidle
      nick swisher

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        See also: 1992-2000

        • Zack

          http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/07/gm-trade-histor.html

          look at the spread sheet and see what ‘prospects’ we gave up over the years, and I think Lowell and Nivarro are the only prospects who became something

          • Zack

            wrong reply button, it was to the original post

          • Zack

            wrong reply button, aimed towards original post

          • Thomas

            From this list the Yankees from 1998 – 2003 gave up players like:

            Ed Yarnall
            Wily Mo Pena
            Eric Milton
            Christian Guzman
            Ricky Ledee
            Zach Day
            Jake Westbrook
            Drew Henson
            D’Angelo Jimenez
            Ted Lilly
            Marcus Thames
            Brandon Claussen
            Juan Rivera
            Nick Johnson

            Some of these players have had solid careers (Lilly, Thames, Milton, Guzman, Westbrook), other had injuries ruining them (Day, Johnson, Rivera, Jimenez), and many never reached their potential (Henson, Claussen, Pena, Yarnall, Ledee). However, at the time all these players were well respected prospects all worth more than Richards and most worth more than Poreda.

            So the Yankees did give up significant prospects.

            • http://theyankeeuniverse.com Moshe Mandel

              I may be misremebering, but I’m pretty sure you are overrating the prospect status of a lot of those guys, who were never highly regarded outside NY.

              • Thomas

                I may be overrating some of them. However, Aaron Poreda was number 63 this year on BA top 100 prospects, many of the players on the list were ranked higher than he was, including Yarnall, Milton, Claussen, Ledee, Henson, Jimenez, Claussen, Rivera, and Johnson. A couple others had a ranking withing ten of Poreda. I still standby my remarks that all are better than Richards.

                • http://theyankeeuniverse.com Moshe Mandel

                  Right, but by the time the Yankees gave up on them, most of them had dropped in those rankings: only Milton, Claussen, and Johnson were big time names when they were traded.

                • Thomas

                  That is a good point I didn’t think of, but I’d also add Lilly (not a prospect when traded), Henson, and Ledee (not a prospect when traded) to respected player/prospects at the time of the deal. Also, we should remember that most of the guys the Yankees received were not of Peavy’s caliber. For example, the Yankees gave up Jimenez, who no longer had the upside he had before because of his injury, for Jay Witasick. Also, it was Henson and Yarnall for Neagle.

    • Axl

      I was talking about recent history. Baseball was an entirely different game in 1992…

      Swisher had a horrible season and isn’t cheap. Abreu and Lidle weren’t cheap at all and Abreu was considered to be entering his “decline” as well…

      • whozat

        Peavy’s contract isn’t exactly “cheap”

        Santana’s certainly wasn’t cheap.

        JJ Putz is broken, so that’s can’t be the “top talent” you’re talking about…

        Beckett cost Hanley Ramirez.

        Swisher’s actually is pretty cheap — and we gave up less than nothing for him. And why does his “having a horrible season” make the deal somehow irrelevant? Cash smartly bought low.

        What are you talking about?

      • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

        The Yankees gave up next to nothing for Nick Swisher and his contract has an AAV of $5.35MM. How is that not cheap?

        The Yankees also gave up very, very little for Abreu and Lidle and got good production out of Abreu, much more than anything the Phillies have gotten (or probably will get) out of the players sent there. If you’re gonna talk about bad trades and the Yankees, don’t talk about those two. Those were great pick ups for the Yankees.

        • Axl

          $5.35MM for a 4th back up platooning OF?? Not exactly cheap.

          • Zack

            $5.35MM for the guy who carried the team in April?

          • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

            Have you missed the part where Swisher has a) been starting since April and b) been hitting pretty well, minus this slump? He’s going to be the starting RF next year and will enver make more than $9MM in a season. Oh, and, he’s better than Xavier Nady.

      • Zack

        CJ Henry, Matt Smith, Jesus Sanchez Carlos Monastrios for Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle….

        CJ Henry- is at Kansas playing basketball
        Smith- 29yr old reliever in the minors
        Sanchez- 20yr old hit .186 in A last year
        Monastrios- Monastrios- 23yr old in A ball, had an era over 5.60 in A last year, he’s at 3.23 in 33ip this year so far

        So “Abreu and Lidle weren’t cheap at all” is pretty much 100% wrong

        • jsbrendog

          and philly cut henry like a yr later and we resigned him haha

        • Axl

          $DOLLARS$

          • Zack

            Abreu was paid was 13m and 16m- what do you think a corner OF who hits .300, 15-20hr, 100r, 100rbi, 20sb and .400 obp is worth?

  • Zack

    Jake Peavy: 3.82 career ERA away from PETCO while in the NL

  • Drew

    Peavy is certainly a great pitcher. I however, do not think he’s going to be the prototypical “ace” in the AL.

  • Rob in CT

    Peavy reminds me a bit of Javy Vasquez. A better Javy Vasquez, but still… he’s not what the NL West + Petco makes him look like.

    Having said that, if the guys the ChiSox gave up are mid-level prospects, hey, why not?

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Exactly.

      Peavy’s good but not as good as he’s made out to be, but the Sox didn’t really give up any blue chippers for him, so it’s a good trade.

      The Padres traded Peavy a year too late, though. I wonder if they could have snagged a Haren-like haul had they moved him earlier.

      • Zack

        Werent they in the playoffs in 2007 though?

        Only reason they’re selling off is because the owner is going through a divorce, so I dont think it was an issue last year or the year before

  • Zack

    Twins are beating White Sox 20-0, but Peavy in the bullpen!!

  • Zack

    put*

  • MG

    Or not. Peavy says no, so no it is. He’ll stick with the crappy team he knows.