Aug
12

Better living through reverse platooning

By

Stupid Flanders' stupid Leftorium In two hours or so, the Yankees will face rookie southpaw Rickey Romero as they finish up their midweek three game series against the Jays. Romero is enjoying a brilliant first year in the bigs, placing at or near the top in just about every significant pitching statistic among rookies. He pitched into the seventh inning against the Yanks in his only other start against them this year, walking away with a win.

Typically you’ll see managers try to gain an advantage against the good lefthanders by stacking the lineup with righties, and we all know Joe Girardi can get a little platoon crazy at times. Today is a great example of when he should look at the matchups and fill his lineup card accordingly, this time by stacking lefties. That’s right, lefties.

“But Mike, I thought you’re supposed to load the lineup with right-handed hitters when you face a good left hander,” you say. In most cases, that’s probably a good idea, but not this time. Why, you ask? Well, that’s because Romero’s change-up is his bread and butter, his put away pitch. As you probably already know, pitchers use off-speed pitches such as change-ups and splitters to neutralize batters of the opposite hand because those pitches tend to fade down and away from those batters. Romero has thrown his change 22.8% of the time this year, by far the most of his secondary pitches. FanGraphs measures the pitch’s value at 2.16 runs above average per 100 pitches, which makes it the seventh best change-up in the American League, not far behind three guys named Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, and Mark Buehrle. The numbers bear this out as well, because Romero is actually doing a much better job containing righties (.250-.338-.375) than lefties (.299-.338-.522) this year. His minor league numbers also show a reverse platoon split.

Now remember, it takes two to tango. Romero being less effective against lefties than righties is only half the battle; we need to make sure that Yankee hitters can take advantage of this. Hideki Matsui – who sat when the Yanks faced Romero on July 6th – is hitting southpaws to the tune of .258-.343-.618, which is 137 OPS points better than his line against righties. Eric Hinske – who took Romero deep on July 6th – is rocking a .345-.444-.621 line against lefties. Robbie Cano (who I wouldn’t expect to sit anyway, but you never know) is .310-.341-.548 against lefties. The one lefty batter you’d consider sitting is Johnny Damon, because his OPS against lefties is .737, far removed from his Herculean .956 OPS vs righties.

So let’ see, if I was filling out the lineup card, I’d run this nine-some out there this afternoon:

Jeter, SS
Swisher, LF
Teixeira, 1B
A-Rod, 3B
Matsui, DH
Cano, 2B
Hinske, RF
Melky, CF
Molina, C

Jorge Posada needs to sit because it’s a day game after a night game with a cross country flight to Seattle coming up this evening. At 38years old with a 5.5 game lead in the division, there’s no reason to push him. So, you end up with three righties in there (two of whom are world class hitters you’d never consider platooning), three lefties (all in a row and all of whom can mash lefties), and three switch hitters who have at least an .844 OPS against southpaws this year. Add it all up, and you have a lineup that is hitting a combined…wait for it… .310-.399-.537 against lefties in nearly 1,000 plate appearances (986, to be exact) this year. That’s a .936 OPS. It’s like having an entire lineup of Adrian Gonzalezes.

Not only are you putting best possible lineup out there given platoon matchups, you’re also taking away one of Romero’s best weapons for a nice little stretch of the lineup. If you want to get really crazy, you could ask the switch hitters to bat lefthanded against Romero, but I would advise against that. First off, all three guys have good enough numbers against lefties as it is. Second, and more importantly, when’s the last time these guys faced a pitcher throwing from the same side of the plate? Years and years ago. There’s a comfort issue there.

It’s not often that you can gain an advantage by stacking the lineup with same-sided hitters as the pitcher, but here’s a scenario where it’s not such a bad idea. It might be a little too unconventional for Girardi’s taste, but we can only hope.

Note: Today’s lineup came out after I finished writing this post. Almost all the same names, just in a different order than my lineup above. I’m surprised Posada’s playing, but he balances out Damon. Just for the sake of completeness, this lineup is hitting .303-.392-.527 against southpaws this year (1,064 plate appearances). So they’re giving up a whopping 17 points of OPS compared to my lineup. Instead of a lineup of Adrians Gonzalezes, they have a lineup of Todd Heltons.

Categories : Analysis
  • UWS

    Well done.

  • A.D.

    Tex with the day off, interesting.

    • http://www.twitter.com/wahbjo01 Jordan

      Girardi said yesterday in an interview that Tex or ARod would get today off, so obviously Tex today and then either tomorrow or the next day ARod gets the day. Then Jeter some time after that.

      • A.D.

        Yeah figured it had to come soon, get these guys some rest during the days of summer. Especially with some solid bench options in Hinske, Hariston & Pena

  • Chip

    This post reminds me of Tex hitting righty against Wakefield earlier in the season. Now that’s thinkin outside the box

    • Clayton

      Actually, a lot of switch hitters will hit on their more comfortable side against a knuckballer including the most feared hitter of the 90′s, Bernie Williams.

  • Reggie C.

    I’m a fan of Ricky Romero. Gotta admire his determination to prove all those draftniks wrong. Romero’s FB is several mph faster than it was coming out of college, and this writeup presents his changeup as a good out-pitch.

    Gonna be a tough one to win regardless of whether Teix is in the lineup or not.

  • Blog poster

    Burnett vs. Romero? That’s a good one.

  • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

    Slightly off topic: Helton = HOF?

    On topic: It’s awesome home much this team crushes lefties, especially compared to last year. Overall in’ 08, the Yanks OPS’d .734 vs. LHP, this year overall: .880.

    ’08 LHB v LHP: .780
    ’09 LHBv LHP: .860

    Damn!

    • JGS

      I think so–his career average is better than Wade Boggs and Joe Dimaggio, OBP is an insane .427, and career OPS is .997–10th all time–only Bonds, Pujols, and Manny have higher than that and aren’t in the Hall

      • A.D.

        + so far clean, there is some Coors effect, but redic numbers coors or not.

        • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

          .295/.394/.495 away from Coors.

    • A.D.

      Amazing what adding Tex & Po back can do

    • Zack

      I think the change can be attributed to:
      Good Cano replacing bad Cano
      Teixeira replacing Giambi
      Melky increasing his OPS by 300 points against LHP
      Matsui increasing his OPS by 200 points against LHP
      Jeter OPSing over 1 against LHP (400 pt increase)

      • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly known as RAB poster)

        The thing is, we didn’t just make three moves in the offseason; we made seven.

        Think about it; CC, A.J., Tex. Then Jorge and Godzilla back from injury; Jeter having a spectacualr rennaissance year,; ditto with Cano; ditto with Melky.

        That’s 8 guys giving us production we didn’t get last year. Awesomeness.

    • jsbrendog

      not really that offtopic since it pertains to a name mentioned in the thread in the last sentence

      ::stretching::

  • CB

    That July 6th game Romero threw against the yankees was a very strange one for him because of the distribution of pitches he threw.

    By Pitch F/X, Romero threw 50% fastballs, 38% sliders, 5% curve balls and only 5% change ups.

    He threw 5 change ups all game against the yankees. He was pretty much a fastball/ slider pitcher that day. Perhaps he didn’t have a feel for the change that game?

    Either way, the yankees pretty much couldn’t hit his slider. Odd game.

    • King of Fruitless Hypotheticals

      you can’t predict baseball.

      • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly known as RAB poster)

        Sterling’d

  • Makavelli

    Hairston in there today? I can’t see the link to the lineup.

    He has better numbers against lefties…

    I’m guessing Swisher is playing 1B and Hairston is in the OF?

    • jsbrendog

      hinske not hairston

    • JGS

      Swisher is at first, Hinske in right, Matsui DH and batting third–Hairston isn’t starting

      • King of Fruitless Hypotheticals

        who’s on first?

        • 27 this year

          swish

          • V

            Who?

            • JGS

              yes

              • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly known as RAB poster)

                + 1 to you and V and plus another 1 to anybody who gets the reference.

        • Kiersten

          What’s the name of the guy on first?

          • jsbrendog

            so when he gets his check, who goes to cash it?

            exactly.

            • King of Fruitless Hypotheticals

              you cut checks?

              no, we cut cash.

          • jsbrendog

            and no, what’s on second

            • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly known as RAB poster)

              I don’t know is on third.

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