Dreaming of Joe
ByAs a Yankee-fan, is it my Baseball God-given right to lust after every good player who could one day maybe potentially hit free agency. After all, from Reggie to A-Rod from Giambi and Mussina to CC and Teixeira and Burnett and all of the other high-priced free agents in between, when the Yankees want someone, they get him for money is no option. The Onoin, of all news sources, said to best.
As I look ahead to the next few years and glance at the potential free agents, one name leaps out at me as, to borrow a phrase, the perfect fit for the New York Yankees. The odds of his landing in New York are slim, but if he does, it will be on the heels of one of the most lucrative contracts in baseball history.
His name, of course, is Joe Mauer. You may know him as the reigning American League MVP. Or perhaps you know him as a three-time batting champion. Or maybe as a two-time Gold Glove winner and three-time All Star. Perhaps you know him as a player who will potentially hit free agency after 2010, after his age 27 season and just in time for some team to cash in on his peak years.
And what a peak it will be. Already, Mauer, a few weeks younger than I, has a batting line to admire. He has hit .327/.408/.483 in his young career, and after launching just 44 home runs over his first 561 games, he hit 28 in 138 this year. Against the Yanks in the ALDS this October, he went 5 for 12 with one — or two, if you ask a non-blind umpire — extra-base hits. Pressure? What pressure?
But Mauer is Minnesota’s man through and through. He’s proof that small market teams can develop their own young talent and compete with it. Now, the Twins, long loath to spend money, are going to be tested. Will they re-up with Mauer or will Joe head for greener pastures and the big, bad lights of the AL East?
According to recent reports, we may actually find out sooner rather than later if Mauer will be the Next Big Bidding War. Based on news published late last night, Mauer wants an extension by the start of Spring Training or else he will file for free agency after the 2010 season. Part of me — the baseball fan — wants to see Mauer stay in Minnesota because otherwise what does that say about the economics of the game? The other part of me — the Yankee fan — knows exactly where he wants Joe Mauer.
For the Yankees, the timing couldn’t be better. Jorge Posada is playing out the waning days of a potential Hall of Fame career behind the plate, but the growing sentiment is that he is not either physically capable or good enough to catch more than 100 games. Furthermore, he has just two more season left on his contract, and while the Yankees hope that Jesus Montero will be both good enough and ready to take over in 2012, Joe Mauer is, well, in another baseball universe.
Furthermore, Mauer and Montero can complement each other. Mauer has caught 139 games once but otherwise hasn’t topped 120 in a single season. He — similar to Montero — is tall and has suffered through some physical ailments. Stick them both behind the dish, and it would be Christmas during the regular season for Yankee fans.
Of course, this is probably just the semi-delusional dream of a star-struck Yankee fan who wants everything but can’t always get it. Yet, as Mauer and the Twins head to the table, a part of me will definitely be rooting against a contract extension.
I put the odds of Mauer NOT signing an extension (and thus, hitting the market next winter) at… 10%.
I don’t think not signing an extension and hitting the market next year are mutually exclusive, regardless of what he’s said.
However, if he does not sign an extension, I would make time a couple of days a week for Montero in RF. How does a Swisher-Jackson-Montero OF, Posada DH, Maurer C (and the incumbent infield) sound?
How does a Swisher-Jackson-Montero OF, Posada DH, Maurer C (and the incumbent infield) sound?
Sounds incredible…but rather unlikely, unfortunately. :/
How much do you think Mauer gets in free agency??
10 years and $300M??
I would say 8 years, $184M would definitely get it done. We’ll be reading about the first team to go to eight years will get him.
Tex money, or thereabout. Teams will be somewhat weary about giving a catcher 8 years, but I bet he gets $25M a year or so.
I could easily see 8 years 200 Million
and do you see the twins ponying up that kind of dough?
If not now when… Like many have said if the Twins dont pay this guy- born and bread Minny, arguably the best player in the league- It is a travesty and MLB economics need to be redone… because revenue sharing has not worked.
i agree, just not sure i see them going that high. honestly hope they do.
“I don’t think not signing an extension and hitting the market next year are mutually exclusive”
Huh?
I assume he means not signing an extension before spring training doesn’t necessarily mean he will test the free agent market.
I would make time a couple of days a week for Montero in RF.
One partial sentence from a Baseball America scouting report from last year does not make Jesus Montero a corner outfielder.
Where else does he go if catching doesn’t work out?
DH
Where else does he go if catching doesn’t work out?
To catcher.
(Think about it.)
“To Blave…and we all know that that means ‘to bluff’…”
- I’ll call the Brute Squad!
- I’m on the Brute Squad.
- You are the Brute Squad!
Baseball America, 2008:
To my knowledge, that was the first and only official blurb available to the public in regards to Montero being able to handle a non-catcher-or-first-basemen’s position on defense.
I can’t answer your question; however, if it does turn out that he can not be anything better than butcher-quality behind the plate, it does not mean he will suddenly be blessed with the anility to be any better in the corner outfield.
Stupid formatting errors.
Honestly, if you give me the choice of the Yankees getting Mauer or Minnesota keeping him…I choose Minnesota. Mauer is a fantastic player, but sometimes I like to root for guys from afar. He’s one of them. Pujols is another.
Felix Hernandez, however, needs to be a Yankee as soon as possible.
Plus, I want my ideal scenario of a Montero/Romine catching/DH duo to become a reality.
Screw rooting from afar, give me my Mauer/Montero catching/DH tandem!
/Pipe Dream’d
I think if he doesn’t sign an extension, he’ll get traded midseason and sign an extension with his new team. I’m rooting FOR his signing an extension, otherwise I’d be very worried said team is Boston. They need a catcher more than us without the prospects we have (unless they think Victor can cut it full time from age 32 on), and they can offer the same amount of money as us and the same level if not better prospects/young major leaguers as us. Also, they probably want to make up for the mistake of letting Tex go. I just think when you put together what they can give and their desperation, it makes Boston a more likely destination than us. Plus, he’s white.
without the catching prospects we have*
(unless they think Victor can cut it full time from age 32 on)
If Mauer becomes available…I don’t think this is even a figment of a possibility…they will go after Mauer with full force.
Plus, he’s white.
This recurring Boston joke will always remain funny, because it’s true.
For a second I thought this post was “Dreaming of Joe (Pawlikowski)”…but was immediately disappointed…
Joe Mauer, I guess, was my next thought. Mauer seems to be the kind of personality who would sign an extension for a very generous amount of money (although nothing insulting) to stay in his home town and just continue to play the game he loves and be thankful for it.
I could be entirely wrong though.
yeah, i think he’ll give them a bit of a hometown discount, but the twins are still going to have to come up with $150M-$200M to ink him. they’ve never even approached that figure with anyone before.
…the twins are still going to have to come up with $150M-$200M to ink him. they’ve never even approached that figure with anyone before.
To be frank, they’ve never had anyone worthy of $150M-200M before. Not even Johan Santana.
true, but also talking about guys who have signed for that kind of $. the arod’s, tex’s, and cc’s of the world. they’ve never been in the discussion for any of them.
To be frank, they’ve never had anyone worthy of $150M-200M before. Not even Johan Santana.
Bullshit.
http://www.aarongleeman.com/up.....727569.jpg
Well, $150-200M players don’t grow on trees. They traded Santana and let Torii Hunter walk with the idea of using that money on Mauer.
Plus their new stadium opens next year. That’ll definitely boost revenue.
I disagree, i think Mauer would sign an extension for under $150M with the Twins
he may want to, but read below about the players union
I want Mauer to sign an extension as a Yankee fan, not as a baseball fan. I would guess that Boston will open the vault for this guy … they NEED him. The Yankees have the organizational catching depth whereas Boston is looking at a black hole in 2011.
+1
Why I would love this more than anything I don’t see it happening. I don’t think Mauer is going to try to get every dollar he could. If he signed a 8 year 140 million extension he would still set his family for life. That would pay him tons of money and also if he lives in Minn all year round the cost of living would actually increase the money too.
Also Minn has given out pretty big extensions. They gave Justin M one for 6 years and 80 million. I see them getting this deal done and Mauer isn’t represented by Boras but by an agent that had Ripken and Kirby stay with the same team the whole time.
the players union would have a BIG problem if he “only” signed for $17.5M/year. he’s gotta get at least $20M per
7y/140M?
That probably works.
yeah, but then they wouldn’t be happy that the total package is “only” $140M. they’re finicky that way
What’s the biggest deal a catcher has ever gotten? Surely Mauer will crush that. It’ll make it harder for players union to bitch if Mauer has a deal worth 3X more than the 2nd biggest deal for a catcher ever.
but he’s not just the best catcher in the league, he’s arguably the best player too. union will want him to be paid as such.
Position still plays into his market value.
I think Mike Piazza at 7/$91m is the largest.
After that is probably Posada’s contracts, 4/$52m and 5/$47m + option at $12m or $4m buyout (so $51m guaranteed, which turned into $59m)
The union matters, but don’t put too much emphasis on the union in a situation like this. If the guy wants to sign with his hometown team for 7/$140M, the union can’t stop him and wouldn’t even be too upset. That might not be top dollar on the open market, but it’s the biggest deal ever given to a catcher (by far), and $20M/year isn’t exactly a market-depressing discount.
And, when it comes down to it, the union has zero power in this situation. They can privately express their displeasure with a deal, but Mauer can sign for whatever he wants.
The player’s union can try to pressure him, but there isn’t anything they can do about it.
true, but pressure can do wonderful things
If he signed it this offseason there is no reason for them to bitch. I doubt any player is going to earn more then 17.5 million a year, if so it won’t be by much. How can they say anything when the economy is as it is.
Well we havne’t seen any evidence that the economy is affecting the amount of money top free agents are getting. At least yet anyway.
Correction: We haven’t seen any evidence that the economy is affecting the amount of money top free agents are getting from the Yankees .
Plenty of evidence other teams are paying less for their top free agents.
Like what? I mean, realistically in this situation, what’s the union going to do? What kind of pressure can they put on Mauer? If he signs for 7/$140M, are they going to frown at him and tell him they’re disappointed in him?
of course they can’t really do anything. they’ll just remind mauer that as one of the games best players (if not the best), he should be paid accordingly. because what he ends up making will impact all other top-end FAs that follow.
Right… And Mauer will respond that he’s the highest paid catcher ever, highest paid player in Twins history, and he gets to lead his hometown team for 7 more years including the prime of his career.
The union won’t even bother putting pressure on Mauer if he’s looking at a 7 year deal from the Twins, and even if they do, it doesn’t really matter.
That would pay him tons of money and also if he lives in Minn all year round the cost of living would actually increase the money too.
While it’s true that the cost of living is dramatically higher on the coasts than it is in the midwest, once you’re in the 8yr/140M bracket, I doubt it makes than much of a noticeably material difference.
Counterpoint: While his money would go slightly further in Minneapolis than in NYC, he probably makes more endorsement/sponsorship cash, both locally and internationally, as a Yankee than as a Twin.
While it’s true that the cost of living is dramatically higher on the coasts than it is in the midwest, once you’re in the 8yr/140M bracket, I doubt it makes than much of a noticeably material difference.
Don’t you remember the lessons we learned from the CC discussions last year? It’s a huge difference, because as we all know if you play in Milwaukee you have to buy a small house in the middle of nowhere, but if you play in New York, you have to buy a mansion in the Hamptons.
Mansions appreciate in value faster than small houses.
TJSC is right, once you reach a certain salary, cost of living is irrelevant. All the things that cost significantly more are in fact investments that appreciate. Anything that depreciates costs too little to worry about.
That was a joke…
Last winter a Brewers fan made a widely circulated blog post justifying why the Brewers 5/$100m offer was worth more than the Yankees initial 6/$140m offer. The blog post was linked to by RAB and MLBTR, so it got talked about a lot.
One of the most absurd parts of it was the cost of housing difference I mentioned above.
Ah! Of course it was a joke. I am showing my age. 10 years ago, a small house in the middle of nowhere would’ve been hell. Nowadays, that sounds like a panacea.
In truth there is probably little impact because of the cost of living differences, but if Mauer (or any other player) believes it will make a difference, then that might be enough to sway him.
I don’t know if I see him having the personality to do endorsements or sponsorships. For some people it isn’t all about the money.
I don’t know if I see him having the personality to do endorsements or sponsorships.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJG5SOO09WM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9H8ZudKo3M
It’s a bit more than slightly-Having grown up in NY and lived in MN I can say it’s a huge difference-Not just housing but super cheap food as well. But even housing-I had a 2 bedroom, 1,000 sqft apartment for $600/mnth. Try to find that in NY. And then there’s taxes.
The “cost of living” argument is fairly dubious.
For one, during the season players spend half the time on the road. The only real significant costs is the cost of housing. Yeah, housing are probably easily triple what they are in Minnesota, but assuming a player buys housing in an area in which he signed a large contract), he’s could also one day sell the house for that much more, and its probably a safe assumption a home in the tri-state area might appreciate more than a house in Minnesota.
Sure, the down payment is bigger and the mortgage payment’s are bigger (assuming he doesn’t pay cash) but the INVESTMENT is no less an eventual pay-off and probably more so.
- Even as a Yankee fan, I hope Mauer retires a Twin and the Yanks beat him in the playoffs a few more times before it’s all said and done.
- A 7 year contract will be fraught with danger for Mauer. He does have an injury history and is big for his position. Some people believe he will not hold as a catcher into his mid-30s.
- Generally, I’m becoming more and more amused at the growing sentiment burying Jorge Posada.
Did I miss something, but did he not catch 100 games (which would have been MUCH more had he not missed nearly a month) for a team that won 103, and start 13 of 15 games in the postseason, which the Yankees won 11 of?
Advanced statistical metrics are a useful tool, but isn’t the point that is often being missed is that unless he tails on significantly (and Damon, Jeter, Rivera, and Matsui should give us all pause about making assumptions based on age), didn’t Posada prove this year he’s MORE than good enough??
Posada doesn’t want to get his knees dirty anymore. 2010 is going to be a brutal defensive year for Posada, followed by a move to DH for 2011. Will it be Mauer, Romine or Other? It won’t be Posada.
2009 was suppose to be a brutal defensive year for Jeter, wasn’t it?
Wasn’t just last season everyone was talking int the same fully convicted manner how about the Yanks were going to handle somehow getting the in-denial Jeter off SS no later than 2011?
Yeah, I agree the Yanks have to have options at C for 2011, but a.) I’m not ready to assume his catching skills are going to drop off the table; and b.) he’s still a WAY above average hitter for his position and while Romine (or someone else, Cervelli) might develop into a vacuum behind the plate, it won’t necessarily make him more productive.
“2009 was suppose to be a brutal defensive year for Jeter, wasn’t it?”
No. Jeter’s career has had spikes and valleys throughout. It is no surprise that Jeter rebounded.
Posada has completely stopped blocking balls in the dirt. By the end, he wasn’t even hitting the dirt with his shin pads, which is step #1. For Jeter, that would be analogous of not putting your glove on the ground.
Maybe he was just hurt, and needs rest. Maybe he will come back rejuvenated. But I have never seen a major league catcher go after balls in the dirt that badly before.
“No. Jeter’s career has had spikes and valleys throughout. It is no surprise that Jeter rebounded.”
I don’t know, I recall a great deal of hand-ringing about how many years Jeter had left at SS last off-season
And if you’re looking for a blocking machine behind the plate, Mauer isn’t your guy. He allowed a 9 in 2009.
What I am saying it that Posada’s technique had become so bad that he can’t catch anymore. You wouldn’t put a shortstop out there if he couldn’t get his glove on the ground, and you can’t put a catcher back there if he can’t drop his knees to the ground. Those guys have no chance. I don’t want a blocking machine or even an average defensive catcher, but I do want a guy who has a chance.
I also don’t think its intentional–He’s been playing catcher for 17-18 years, so he knows what he should do, it’s probable his body won’t allow him to do it. At least not at the end of the season.
You seem to be exaggerating Posada’s deficiencies behind the plate in order to make your point.
Unfortunately, I’m not.
But it is a small sample. You’re right to suggest I am exaggerating by saying this is the way it will be from now on. Posada will probably be back to the occasional ole’ brain fart in April.
The way he caught in the playoffs is not permissible, and come to think of it, Joe G might’ve been right about the whole Molina thing all along.
I agree with you that Posada doesn’t have too much time left at catcher, but, I wouldn’t read too much into the end of this past season. He was pretty banged up at the end of the season, so it could be from that.
“What I am saying it that Posada’s technique had become so bad that he can’t catch anymore.”
But didn’t he start in 10 games in the post-season, and the Yankees went 8-2 in those games?
Wasn’t Pettitte and Sabathia more effective than Burnett?
Didn’t the Yankees win 103 regular season games.
BY what metric are we concluding he CAN’T catch anymore? His team seems to have significant success while he’s on the field, no?
Funny but Jorge sure looked annoyed anytime he had to deal with the whole Burnett/Molina issue, as well as any questions regarding his possible move to a DH role…
I’m still scared to let Molina walk – Cervelli as the main backup sure puts a rush on the Montero project, doesn’t it?
Is there really any evidence that Cervelli will be worse than Molina? Molina had a 51 OPS+ over the last 2 seasons. I know Cervelli isn’t going to be a star, and probably not even an everyday player, but I’m confident he can maintain at least a 51 OPS+.
I’m not necessarily talking about offense, just overall depth.
Cervelli as the main backup sure puts a rush on the Montero project, doesn’t it?
Why? I see Cervelli and Molina as roughly the same player, except one made 5x what the other did last year.
Molina has gotten injured each of the last two seasons when he was asked to step up his workload, so I think his days of usefulness are nearing their end.
You are completely speculating here and while I would like to see Jorge only catch 100 games and DH a bit to be good to go for the playoffs, there is no reason to believe he wont be catching part time in 2011 too.
Of course I am speculating. I can’t predict the future, but I can see the past clearly. Any catcher that doesn’t get his shin pads dirty isn’t going to keep that job.
Generally, I’m becoming more and more amused at the growing sentiment burying Jorge Posada.
Nobody’s shitting on Jorge. In fact, YOU were the first one to bring this up in this thread. We weren’t even talking about Jorge, we were all talking about Joe Mauer.
Did I miss something, but did he not catch 100 games (which would have been MUCH more had he not missed nearly a month) for a team that won 103, and start 13 of 15 games in the postseason, which the Yankees won 11 of?
All true and valid points, but points that do not change the fact that Jorge is not the long-term answer at catcher. He’s already 38, and only under contract for two more years. Even if he is the fulltime starting catcher for all of 2010 and 2011, he won’t be beyond that, because we’re not resigning a 40 year old man to be our starting catcher.
That’s not a wise investment, no matter how well Jorge looks at that point.
Advanced statistical metrics are a useful tool…
… which, again, nobody was mentioning until you brought it up…
…but isn’t the point that is often being missed is that unless he tails on significantly (and Damon, Jeter, Rivera, and Matsui should give us all pause about making assumptions based on age)…
Small samples v. large samples. The fact that Damon, Jeter, Rivera, and Matsui haven’t declined much doesn’t mean that Posada will not decline much. Those guys are A) probably outliers, B) with the exception of Rivera, all younger than Jorge, and C) play a less physically demanding position. The larger sample size of 39 and 40 year old catchers is much more daunting for Jorge to contradict.
…didn’t Posada prove this year he’s MORE than good enough??
Yes.
None of that has anything to do with being interested in Joe Mauer, though, or Jesus Montero. Nothing that Jorge can do at the plate or behind the dish will change the fact that he’ll turn 40 before Mauer turns 30 or Montero turns 23.
“In fact, YOU were the first one to bring this up in this thread. We weren’t even talking about Jorge, we were all talking about Joe Mauer.”
In fact, here is a passage from the orginal Blog entry….
“For the Yankees, the timing couldn’t be better. Jorge Posada is playing out the waning days of a potential Hall of Fame career behind the plate, but the growing sentiment is that he is not either physically capable or good enough to catch more than 100 games.”
Do you not see that THIS is what prompted my response?
“He IS not capable or good enough”… NOT “he won’t be capable or good enough in 2012″.
Context…
“All true and valid points, but points that do not change the fact that Jorge is not the long-term answer at catcher.”
But once again, I made a general remark about the GROWING sentiment about the immediate decline of Posada, which if you scroll up and see the discussion with the poster who is convinced that Posada doesn’t even try to block pitches in the dirt anymore and that his play in the post-season which resulted in a 8-2 record was “unacceptable” you’ll understand to whom and to what I was referring to.
I also clearly point out that of course the Yankees need to explore options for 2011. Cherry pick much?
“None of that has anything to do with being interested in Joe Mauer”
And neither does the comment you’re determined to fabricate a debate out of.
Read the post again, AFTER addressing Mauer specifically, the Posada comment begins “Generally” which is a fairly clear indication I’m no longer discussing Posada in the context of whether IS Mauer a better choice.
Is your head so far up your ass you honestly think I’m suggesting Posada is a better option than Mauer, this year, next year or the year after?
My comments on Posada has NOTHING to do with interest in Joe Mauer. One isn’t mutually exclusive to another.
It was a “general” comment about the “growing sentiment” that Posada is incapable of playing the position for parts of the next couple of years, which again if you’ll scroll up you’ll see was entirely relevant.
You’re trying WAY too hard.
I’m going to say something crazy: I don’t want Joe Mauer. As a baseball fan, but also a Yankee fan.
As a baseball lover, look, he’s from Minnesota. He has a great career going there and is a fan favorite. That’s like Derek going to play for the Angels or something in 2003. It’s too sad.
We have a ton of great catching prospects right now. Even though some free-agents got the job done it was our home grown core that put us over the top. Andy, Derek, Jorge, Mo, and heck, even Joba. If there was a major hole at catcher in the organization I’d say fine. But when you don’t even bother to test top prospects, and start turning the Yankees into a fantasy baseball roster instead you get the 2006 ALDS. No chemistry. Bad vibes.
Let’s see what Montero can do, and go after some starters maybe another reasonable OF pick-up.
We have a ton of great catching prospects right now.
Joe Mauer, the sure thing, is a lot better of a bet than our catching prospects, no matter how much we love them. The odds are not in the Yanks’ favor that Montero ends up as good a player as Mauer.
But while that’s true, if Jesus Montero the solidly good catcher is only, say, 70% as good as Joe Mauer the MVP candidate catcher, but Jesus Montero the catcher makes 2% of the salary that Joe Mauer the catcher does, thus enabling us to quasi-approximate Mauer’s production and spend Mauer’s earmarked 20M+ elsewhere, that may be a net win for us.
I’m just saying
Yeah, the endorsements/perks of a Yankee quickly balance out any cost of living issues. If he hits the market, he’s a Yankee. No way they let the Sox grab him. Plus I think Mauer appreciates baseball history enough that he’d like the sound of being the latest in a long line of great Yankee catchers.
Hughes pitching to Mauer in a World Series? Man I like the sound of that…
Can’t blame Joe for dreaming of Joe.
I have already started having dreams of Pujols – 10 years 300 million
Where he plays on the Yanks? I don’t know OF?
Hey its a dream OK.
Joe didn’t write this post.
mea culpa
I would think that if the Yankees managed to sign Pujols, he’d probably be DH’ing.
then he’s not worth $300M (or anything close) to us, as part of his value is what he brings defensively as a first baseman
Really?
Honestly, what percent of Albert Pujols’s value comes from his defense at first? 5%?
We’re paying for his bat. Don’t get it twisted. The way he hits, I’ve got no problem “wasting” his defense at DH.
of course his bat is his main value, but are you really going to spend $30M per for a DH?
If that DH is one of the top 10 bats in MLB history?
Yeah, I might.
of course, he may be a better 1B than tex is so we’d really only have a $23M DH
I agree with Ed.
I’d put Pujols at DH and keep Tex at 1B. Lessen the unnecessary strain on Pujols’s occasionally balky elbow.
scary thought is, unless they make a deal for gonzalez, sox will be prime for a 1B in 2012 (unless lars pans out). well, that assumes that they haven’t already spent $200M on mauer.
Sure, when you’re talking about a DH who is tied for 6th place in career OPS+.
That’s a sick thought – how good a hitter would Pujols be if he didn’t have to stress that torn elbow ligament by making throws?
What is amazing is that, but my quick and dirty math, the Yankees 2011 salary could be less with Maurer and Lee/Halladay/Beckett than their 2008 salary, if:
they only give out one year contracts this year,
commit to Jackson in CF next year,
Montero can take a corner OF spot
I’d substitute Felix in another year over any of those options you mentioned.
You forget CC’s opt-out clause.
You can also forget Montero taking a corner OF spot.
If you’re the Yankees, you root for Halladay to stay with the Jays this year (at least through ST) and for Mauer NOT to sign an extension.
Joba and Montero for Doc, sign Mauer in ‘11.
Joba and Montero for Doc,
http://i555.photobucket.com/al.....HellNo.jpg (safe)
Photobucket is blocked at my job, but I assume by the file name that you disagree.
Here, try this one:
http://baseballsnatcher.mlblog.....l%20no.jpg (safe, not Photobucket)
I’m fully in favor of Joe extending with the Twins, as a Yankees fan as well as a baseball fan. I agree that Boston would probably throw the kitchen sink at him (in a good way) to get him to sign, and, you know … Joe Mauer:Twins as Derek Jeter:Yankees, basically. Yeah, he’s the best player in baseball, but I’d almost feel sort of wrong signing him. He’s the AL’s Albert Pujols … a really great player who isn’t going to be/shouldn’t be on the Yankees.
What if Boston cripples their system to get him? Now that may be a train wreck worth watching!
As someone who lives in Minnesota I can’t see under any situation Mauer leaving the Twins. He is the face of that franchise, he’s in all their adds. Say what you will about Torii and Johan, but they weren’t from Minnesota.
I say Mauer signs an extention right around the holiday season, a nice gift to Twins fans across the upper-midwest.
Nex then is taking care of Justin Morneau. Personally, I hope both stay in Minnesota for the sake of baseball in Minnesota. Would be a terrible message to send to the fans if they let either of them get away.
I think Morneau is locked up till 2013 or 2014.
Through 2013 at $14M per year.
I don’t see how the Twins can re sign him. If he takes a “discount” for like 20 million a year, that would be a ridiculous amount to spend on one player when you have the Twins payroll. They might do it, but it would be a mistake for them.
I think he probably gets traded before the Twins lose control of him. It is really the only way to go for them.
Arent’ the Twins opening a new stadium however? The team revenues are bound to increase for the first couple years. They’ve got to land one top-end pitcher AND get the farm to develop 2,3 type arms. Twins are competitive with Morneau, Mauer, Cuddyer, and Span (who’s gonna be good).
With the Twins new Stadium, I could see them raising total team payroll to the 100M level.
They can afford Mauer at 20M if the total payroll is 100M. It’ll be a tight pinch, but it’s doable.
The real question is, can they afford NOT TO resign Mauer? He’s bigger than BRETTFAR up there. He IS the Twins, in a way that not even Kirby Puckett was. They won’t sell tickets if they let Mauer walk. That’d be a crushing blow to that franchise, they may slide back to Royals territory.
I don’t see how you can assume the Twins will up their payroll to 100 million. And even if they do, how long do they keep it there after missing out on the playoffs for a year or two in a row. It is a mistake to make a big payroll push just because a new stadium is opening. It pushed the franchise back. Under MLB’s current economics, the Twins can not afford to pay Mauer all that money.
They might decide to do so though, for the reasons you stated: he is loved, new stadium, they are planning on upping payroll, etc … but I think it would be a mistake for them.
I point you to the Twins AL Central mate, the Detroit Tigers.
They opened Comerica, splurged for Ivan Rodriguez and others, and their payroll went from the 40-60M range at the start of this decade to the 120M range today. And, they haven’t gone out of business (yet).
Detroit Tigers
Opening Day payrolls for 25-man roster (salaries plus pro-rated signing bonuses):
o 2009: $115,085,145
o 2008: $137,685,196
o 2007: $ 95,180,369
o 2006: $ 82,612,866
o 2005: $ 69,092,000
o 2004: $ 46,832,000
o 2003: $ 49,168,000
o 2002: $ 55,048,000
o 2001: $ 49,456,167
o 2000: $ 61,700,000
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.c.....rs_21.html
The Twins can handle 100M, if they do it smartly. The main reason they held payroll down in the past was because Pohlad was a miserly old leech, IMO.
you make good points here, and after seeing the Detroit comparison, I do think the chances of the Twins mirroring this is far better than I previously thought.
I guess if the Twins plan on going to the 100 million mark, and staying there, then Mauer at 20 million would be far more palatable for me.
It is tough to predict how much the owner is willing to spend. So if you are right, they should re sign him, if they only plan to go to around 80 million, I think it would be a mistake.
Final answer.
THAT IS HOW YOU DEBATE!!!!!!
… what happened? I blacked out. Did we win?
Jim Pohlad better pay up. Mauer has finally reached his full potential, so this first MVP win might not be his last. Mauer is a must sign so if he walks, Pohlad at least better make sure that Mauer rejected a Teixeira-level contract. Best efforts.
It would be a large part of their current payroll, but with the new stadium opening I assume there payroll will sit around the low 100 million area. That’s not too bad of a percent of the payroll.
They’ll lock him up.
The Twins payroll was about 65 million this year. I highly doubt they come close to the 100 million dollar number any time soon. Assuming Mauer takes the 20 million discount, and assuming the Twins up their payroll to 80 million, that would be 25%. For a 25 man roster, to pay one player 25% of that money, would be stupid in my opinion.
A far better option would be to trade him for multiple prospects, and then if they really wanted, they could go out and spend that 20 million on other players.
For me, getting two monster prospects, plus maybe two plus starting pitchers, for the price you are paying Mauer, would be a smarter move for them.
Well, two years ago (2007) it was at 71M, FWIW.
Oh, and… Pohlad’s dead. His son may be more freespending. It wouldn’t be a bad idea, all things considered. The Tigers were rejuvenated as a contender when they build a new park and started spending again.
I think there are just too many variables here. Mauer could be the highest paid baseball player ever if he wanted. Both the Yanks and Sox need catchers. Almost every team needs a catcher like Mauer to be honest. Mauer would really have to take a major discount to sign with the Twins. Probably something to the tune of 50 million over 8 years. That is a lot to give up for your hometown. Two, the Twins will have to be willing to even give Mauer that 20 million, which in my opinion, would be bad baseball decision. And Mauer has to know, that if he signs that deal, he will never have that much help. It will always be him with a bunch of youngsters, trying to overcome his monster contract. It won’t be good for either side.
Yeah it’s always smart trading the best player in the AL for unproven prospects.
while also saving about 150 million over 8 years … you may still be right, but that money is a major part of the equation.
Well then lets talk about the money the Twins would be losing with Mauer not being their He’s in every Twins commerical and add you see. You think that new stadium won’t have some empty seats cause Mauer isn’t there? Go to a Twins game and you’ll see 80-90% Mauer jerseys in the crowd.
For all the talk about what he’s gonna cost, remember how much the best player in the AL and local boy brings in for the Twins.
very true.
question: when all is said and done, where will mauer rank among all-time catchers? I’d definitely go top 5, maybe #2 behind johnny bench
Why would Mauer sign an extension now when Boston and NY and NYM will need catchers next yr??
His agent would be doing him a disservice. And the PA would crucify him for screwing with the market and hurting other players.
So, let’s say Mauer doesn’t sign an extension pre-ST.
Then let’s say the Twins deal him before the deadline, to try & get some kind of return out of the deal.
Do you think the Twins would deal him for Montero + whoever’s not named Hughes/Joba/AJax?
They won’t be able to get the king’s ransom that Mauer’s worth for just a half season of him, and Montero’s got the potential to at least be about 60-70% of Mauer, if he can stick behind the plate of course.
We do have the catching depth, we could have Romine spell Mauer, and the Twins would get as good a replacement candidate as possible. The Sox don’t have any C prospects like Montero, do they?
I don’t know if this is such a pipe-dream. I mean, having both Jesus & Mauer is probably too far-fetched, because the Twins are going to deal him if he doesn’t sign. Although he won’t necessarily sign with whatever team trades for him, there’s the distinct possibility that he does. Especially if the trade partner is the Yankees.