Dec
22

KLaw’s analysis of the Vazquez trade

By

As he does with ever major move, Keith Law gave his take of today’s Javy Vazquez trade, noting that the Yanks “could very well enter 2010 a better team on paper than they were at the same time before 2009.” That should scare the crap out of the rest of the league. KLaw acknowledges that Arodys Vizcaino is a fantastic prospect, but also adds that Melky Cabrera is a “fairly pricey for a fourth outfielder,” and that Mike Dunn still has a ton of work to do on his command.

It’s definitely a long term sacrifice for a short term gain, but the Yanks can afford to take such risks.

Categories : Asides
  • Jay

    Mike I read that as well, and wanted your take. Do you think the Yanks are a better team this year?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      I think so, assuming this Nick Johnson signing actually happens. Javy is a massive upgrade over Wang/Gaudin/Mitre, and Granderson and Johnson could definitely replace Matsui and Damon, especially since the latter two were in the decline phases of their career and both enjoyed their best seasons in some time in 2009. Can they repeat that? Unlikely?

      • Malcard89

        I’m Ron Burgundy?

        • My Pet Goat

          IEJTC

  • http://riveraveblues.com/2009/12/olney-yanks-working-hard-to-land-a-pitcher-tonight-21557/#comment-728142 Matt Imbrogno

    As much as I don’t like losing Vizcaino, aren’t there guys, despite Viz’s upside, closer to the Majors than him?

    • Jay

      I’m with you Matt, hate to see prospects go, but it’d be some time before we got contributions.

    • A.D.

      Yup there’s guys closer to the majors with less upside and guys father back with similar upside. Its a shame, but gotta give to get.

      • http://riveraveblues.com/2009/12/olney-yanks-working-hard-to-land-a-pitcher-tonight-21557/#comment-728142 Matt Imbrogno

        Yeah, exactly.

    • mike c

      chapman

  • Teix is the Man

    How will Hughes and Joba get consistent turns in the rotation?

    • http://dinosaursneverexisted.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/melky.jpg Drew

      AAA, injuries…

      • http://twitter.com/riddering Riddering

        The shiv underneath TSJC’s mattress…

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      Joba will as the 5th starter, and they’ll need a 6th starter at some point, they always do.

      • JMK THE OVERSHARE’s Glenn Beck Complex

        What would be your optimal rotation/Hughes placement? AAA, swingman 6th starter, bullpen set-up man?

      • Evil Empire

        Do you think the Yankees will put Hughes in the pen and convert him if someone goes down?

        • http://riveraveblues.com/2009/12/olney-yanks-working-hard-to-land-a-pitcher-tonight-21557/#comment-728142 Matt Imbrogno

          If they put him in the set up/one inning reliever role, it’ll probably take too long to re-convert him. I’d prefer he start in AAA to build innings then be ready ASAP if someone goes down. If they want to keep him in the majors, I’d like him to do the swingman type thing and get multiple innings at a time.

          • ledavidisrael

            +1
            HUGHES OR JOBA TO AAA while the other one starts in the 5 hole.

            No reason to stack your BP for the first half the season. IF its needed for the post season its a blessing.

            I have an arbitration question. If hughes/joba spend the year in the minors do we get an extra pre arbitration year?? how does that work?

            • Ed

              Arbitration & free agency are based off time spent on the major league roster. Time on the major league DL counts, including time on a minor league rehab stint. Being optioned to the minors stops the clock.

          • Evil Empire

            Yeah it would be prudent to keep him in AAA for the first half of the season and call him up in the 2nd half as a reliever if everyone is healthy.

        • Chris

          I don’t think so. With the results from Joba in 2008 and Ace in 2009, they seem to be getting more reluctant to move young pitchers from the pen to the rotation during the season.

          • http://riveraveblues.com/2009/12/olney-yanks-working-hard-to-land-a-pitcher-tonight-21557/#comment-728142 Matt Imbrogno

            I still cringe at ’08 Joba. Should’ve just been starting the whole time.

          • http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090810&content_id=6355462&vkey=news_nyy&fext=.jsp&c_id=nyy JobaWockeeZ

            This makes me nervous. I probably will go crazy if Hughes is in the bullpen again pitching just for the 8th inning again while Aceves needs to make spot starts totally ignoring Hughes.

          • JMK THE OVERSHARE’s Glenn Beck Complex

            In fairness, Ace doesn’t profile or project to be a front-line starter. I agree with your conclusion, but not necessarily all the premises.

  • Matty Ice

    I also like Vazquez’ contract. 10+ million this year….if the FA market is bad (ie, people resign), we offer him arbitration. If we need to free up some salary for Lee/Crawford/Mauer, we have $10+ million that could come off the books.

    • sciorsci

      Vazquez probably gets offered arbitration no matter what. Even if he accepts (unlikely), goes to arbitration, and wins (a lot of ifs), he still comes at a reasonable rate for a pitcher of his caliber. And the more likely scenario, where he declines, gives the Yankees the opportunity to pick up a couple of draft picks to restock the farm system.

  • Tank the Frank

    It’s definitely a long term sacrifice for a short term gain no-brainer.

  • http://twitter.com/riddering Riddering

    Curse you, Insider!!!

    I agree that it’s difficult to lose a prospect with such tantalizing stuff but this trade was just about painless for the Yankees. Very, very good move.

  • Free Mike Vick

    The Yankees will find other Arodys Vizcainos.

    • ledavidisrael

      Someone made a great point in an earlier post about how if they net picks off javy they can draft someone with similar upside who is closer to the bigs..

      • http://www.teamnerdrage.com dr mrs the yankee

        The best way for the Yankees to get another Vizcaino-esque arm (and pat says they already have some that are closeish) is to be active with IFA, which they are.

    • Bill O

      Maybe, but that doesn’t mean that we didn’t just give up a great prospect. If he continues to have similar levels of success in full season ball next year he could’ve easily become the 2nd best prospect in our system and certainly has the potential to be a top 50 prospect in baseball as soon as next year. Let’s not sell Viz short here, but saying he’s easily replaceable. The guy has rare talent with mid 90′s velocity and a devastating curveball.

      The only knocks on him right now are experience and reportedly a poor work ethic. The latter may have led to his inclusion in this deal. However his fastball and curveball were among the best in the system this past year and he still has time to develop a changeup which should be a solid 3rd pitch.

      He’s far away, but every indication we’ve seen thus far shows that he shouldn’t have much difficulty moving up the ranks. I really see injuries as the only thing that could limit him.

  • Bay or Holliday

    Just saw on MLB Network that Yanks on verge of an announcement on a position player (assumed to be LF).

    Cashman stated it was something that had been talked about that they (the Yanks)are not talking about. Just have to dot the I’s and cross the T’s.

    MLB network speculates it’s DeRosa with no foundation to it. Thoughts?

    Obviously the Yanks were waiting until after the Atlanta trade went through to take on the OF issue. Bay has been stalling the Mets.

    DeRosa isn’t going to be the Yankee Left Fielder. I can’t see that. Yanks reportedly contacted Bay’s agent a few days ago. I think it’s Bay.

    • JMK THE OVERSHARE’s Glenn Beck Complex

      Barry Bonds. It’s a lock.

      • http://riveraveblues.com/2009/12/olney-yanks-working-hard-to-land-a-pitcher-tonight-21557/#comment-728142 Matt Imbrogno

        Please let that be true.

        • Steve H

          +73

      • IRememberCelerinoSanchez

        No, Chad Curtis.

        • http://www.teamnerdrage.com dr mrs the yankee

          He looked like he was in playing condition at Old Timer’s Day!!!

    • ledavidisrael

      Is their any truth to this? Why wouldnt it be all over the net by now? TV moves fast than the internet? SINCE WHEN!!!!!

      • Bay or Holliday

        I just saw it! It was an interview with Cashman on the MLB Network. He was asked if any more moves were coming. That was what he said.

        It was Cashman talking about today’s trade. On MLB network Hot Stove.

        • ledavidisrael

          And he wasn’t speaking about johnson????

        • ledavidisrael

          And he wasn’t talking about Nick Johnson????? we are sure its a “new” player or an LF

          • Evil Empire

            That’s what I thought, he was talking about Nick Johnson. I don’t believe he’s been officially announced yet.

            • Bay or Holliday

              NO, not Nick Johnson.

              What RED SOX FANS are writing about us possibly getting Bay:

              “I agree with you evileddy. If they have 85 million to throw at John Lackey, and I’m glad they did, they should have an equal amount to give to Bay. Give him the 5 years. I don’t care about about all of those stats like UZR that are quoted to denigrate his defense, I care about the 36 home runs and 120 RBI’s that are going out the door. He didn’t make an error and I believe he led the league in outfield assists, which is good enough for me. The farm system is intact as is Buccholz, Ellsbury and Bard who are being bandied about in trade talks with San Diego and along with Mike Cameron provides insurance for one of J.D. Drew’s many ailments that inevitably rear their ugly heads every season. If not Bay, then throw the money at Holliday, keep Lowell and call it your team. No trades with the above mentioned young guys or anyone in the farm system.”

              • Evil Empire

                That seems like what Red Sox fans are writing about themselves possibly getting Bay.

                And that poster seems kind of … ignorant, to be blunt, due to his blatant dismissal of UZR.

                The Red Sox need some extra offense. The Yankees don’t. And if they did, they’d be better served with Matt Holliday. But they don’t…they really really do not.

                • http://dinosaursneverexisted.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/melky.jpg Drew

                  I don’t care about all of those stats like UZR!

    • Chris

      About to announce a position player? How about a DH? Maybe Nick Johnson.

      • Bay or Holliday

        NO not Nick Johnson.

        • IRememberCelerinoSanchez

          The Hot Stove show on now is a rerun from three hours ago. Not a single beat reporter has tweeted anything about a move.

          So, I think you’ve lost the story somewhere.

        • DP

          Mike Rivera!

    • Charlie

      that’s a load of bullshit

    • http://threequarters.cementhorizon.com/archives/kool%20aid%20man.bmp The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

      I was watching the Cashman segment on MLB Network. I wasn’t listening closely, but I did not get the same impression (at all) as this commenter. The hosts speculated, after Cashman hung up, that the Yanks would soon add a bat, but Cashman said nothing of the sort. This commenter misunderstood what he heard. (Or I misunderstood… But, judging from the lack of attention being paid to this when, if true, it would be all over the place… I’m relatively confident that he’s the one who is mistaken.)

      • A.D.

        Yeah on the other thread people were all over this, thus I watched the clip when they re-ran. He basically said that they were “in on people”, couldn’t talk about these things unless all the “I’s and T’s were crossed”, can’t speculate, and there are no new names, all people they had “talked about before” (referring to the crew).

        Net in net I took it as we’re still looking at LF options, but we don’t have anything yet, and its not going to be Damon.

        • http://threequarters.cementhorizon.com/archives/kool%20aid%20man.bmp The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

          Yeah… My bad on not seeing it in the other post, I didn’t read the comments.

  • http://www.wiredtowns.com Short Porch

    yes,

    and his name is Chapman.

    • Camilo Gerardo

      but can he pitch?

  • ledavidisrael

    I wonder if all these beat writers would have arodys dick in their mouths if dude wasn’t leaving the yankees.

  • Bay or Holliday

    OK Poll, who starts LF for the Yanks Opening day?

    I say Bay! Sound off.

    • http://www.wiredtowns.com Short Porch

      NFW.

    • http://riveraveblues.com/2009/12/olney-yanks-working-hard-to-land-a-pitcher-tonight-21557/#comment-728142 Matt Imbrogno

      Off topic this post is.

    • Mike Pop

      Go to the open thread to talk about this.

    • Esteban

      Not Bay, Mo willing.

    • ledavidisrael

      I say Holliday.

      Hal was quoted as saying
      “I think Brian understands that if it’s a matter of getting one player, I’m not going to slam the door in his face — let’s put it that way,” Steinbrenner said. “But I am a budget person and he did get a budget”

      I think Holliday is that one player. It only makes sense to sign him last to keep up this cost cutting facade.

    • JMK THE OVERSHARE’s Glenn Beck Complex

      You like polls. Heh. Anyway, I’ll bite even though it’s off-topic. I think we should sign both Bay and Holliday. Sure, we don’t have the money to sign one of them, let alone both. But you know what? If one of them goes down, we need to ensure that we have a potential AS at all 9 positions. Cost? Who cares?! If one is cold during the playoffs (the only time that matters), we need a suitable replacement.

      /is this thing on?

  • http://www.teamnerdrage.com dr mrs the yankee

    I need a new pet prospect, who’s coming to SI next year for me to stalk??

  • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Rebecca-Optimist Prime (Optimovelist Primus)

    So I want to watch MLB network right now but my brother hijacked the TV to watch wrestling.

    Thus, if this DeRosa rumor has meat to it, I need you guys to tell me.

    • http://dinosaursneverexisted.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/melky.jpg Drew

      Already missed it. I watched the last 40 minutes of Hot Stove earlier and they didn’t mention the Yanks once. They opened the show with them and didn’t revisit it.

      • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Rebecca-Optimist Prime (Optimovelist Primus)

        Oh.

        I am so out of touch right now.

    • Evil Empire

      No indications of such things have occurred today.

    • V

      I think they were mistaken – I think Cashman was talking about Nick Johnson (a guy they’re signing but haven’t dotted all of the t’s and crossed all the i’s on yet (on purpose ;-))), not DeRosa.

    • http://threequarters.cementhorizon.com/archives/kool%20aid%20man.bmp The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

      I saw the segment, that commenter above was mistaken.

      • JMK THE OVERSHARE’s Glenn Beck Complex

        Shocking. Just shocking.

        • http://threequarters.cementhorizon.com/archives/kool%20aid%20man.bmp The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

          I know, he seemed like such a dependable witness.

  • Dan

    One thing not being talked about and being overlooked is the fact that Vasquez will most likely be a type A free agent after this year and the yankees will certainly offer arbitration if he is not signed to a multi year deal. He will certainly turn down arbitration , being the # 2 starter on the open market. The final pieces of this trade could well be Melky, Dunn,and Vizcaino for 1 year of Vazquez, Logan and two high draft choices.

    • Bryan

      thank you Joel Sherman in this morning’s post

  • http://riveraveblues.com/2009/12/olney-yanks-working-hard-to-land-a-pitcher-tonight-21557/#comment-728142 Matt Imbrogno

    So do we all think Logan will stick as the second lefty in the ‘pen? Does WDLR become the 2010 version of Mike Dunn?

    • V

      WDLR > Dunn.

      • Accent Shallow

        Based on both scouting reports and stats, I’m going to disagree.

        • V

          What stats are you looking at?

          Remember – ERA for RP is meaningless. 2.25 ERA with 1.55 WHIP = Bad.

          • V

            Heck, just compare their AA numbers. WDLR starting has better overall stats than Dunn relieving. WDLR is also raw for a pitcher (24, but only been pitching since 2007).

          • Camilo Gerardo

            methinks accent shallow thinks velocity is a stat, lol

  • Charlie

    From LoHud:
    “Cashman said whoever does not make the rotation will either go to the bullpen or go to Triple-A.”

    Definitely good to see Cashmoney acknowledge the possibility of jobaphil going to AAA. I would really like to see that rather than have the loser go straight to the bullpen

    • http://riveraveblues.com/2009/12/olney-yanks-working-hard-to-land-a-pitcher-tonight-21557/#comment-728142 Matt Imbrogno

      jobaphil

      Jophil Chamberhughes, plz.

      • Charlie

        eh, too long. Maybe Hughjobber. Or Jopha Hughlain

        • http://dinosaursneverexisted.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/melky.jpg Drew

          Huba?

          • http://riveraveblues.com/2009/12/olney-yanks-working-hard-to-land-a-pitcher-tonight-21557/#comment-728142 Matt Imbrogno

            You may be on to something here.

          • Charlie

            hahaha nice. but you have to pronounce it with a long u

      • JMK THE OVERSHARE’s Glenn Beck Complex

        I prefer Philba Chamberhughes myself, but hey, it’s all semantics at this stage.

      • Charlie

        even jobil chamhughes

    • http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090810&content_id=6355462&vkey=news_nyy&fext=.jsp&c_id=nyy JobaWockeeZ

      Thank Mo.

    • Bo

      Why send one down to AAA? the club would revolt if they put one of their better pitchers in aaa. One is going to be in the pen long term.

      • Zack

        The club will revolt if there is an injury and you need Mitre/Gaudin/Aceves in your rotation

      • sciorsci

        Revolt? Really? I suspect they’re a bit more professional than that.

  • Jake H

    Now they just need to sign Chapman to replace Arodys.

  • ColoYank

    Yankee minor league depth = exchanging Coke and Cabrera for Vazquez and Granderson.

    Wowzers.

    • http://dinosaursneverexisted.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/melky.jpg Drew

      Coke, Dunn, IPK, Ajax, Viz and Melk.

      • JMK THE OVERSHARE’s Glenn Beck Complex

        No need to get all technical…

      • danny

        :(

  • danny

    there is a lot of dislike for Vasquez from yankee fans who cant put past the end of the 2004 season, im not saying Javy has to prove anything but im interested to see what kind of season he has.

    • Bo

      hes not being brought in to be some savior. now hes just a piece. what mid rotation starter has extreme pressure on him??

      • Zack

        um any Yankee pitcher?

        Joba was the 5th starter and people were all over him.
        Hell, we had Brett Tomko as the last option in the bullpen and people were all over him.

        • Bo

          Being all over and mad about performance is a tad different than extreme pressure to live up to something. People were all over bad performance. how does tomko sucking compare in any way?

          • Zack

            No, you’re telling me a 5th starter on any other team had as much pressure on him as Joba last year or this year? No other fanbase have fans going crazy after a bad game to put their top prospect into the 8th inning.

  • NCpinstripes

    Vazquez may not be a short-term option. If he comes in and has a solid year, Cashman might try to work out a multi-year deal with him. He would certainly come much cheaper than Lee. Worse case scenario, they offer him arbitration, and we get two high draft picks for him. Pettitte will most likely retire after next year, so that will free up right at 12 million to either re-sign Javy or pursue Lee.

    • pete

      i’d have to assume this would depend on the progression of hughes and chamberlain. for 2011, Vazquez will be a better option than pettitte, no doubt, but in that scenario you’d really like to have a 1A starter, so hopefully by that time Joba has begun to approach his ceiling

    • Bo

      the two picks if he leaves arent a bad thing either

  • Mike bk

    “Interestingly, Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman noted today that the club tried to acquire Javier Vazquez from Arizona after 2005 and the White Sox after 2008, “but we just didn’t match up,” reports Chad Jennings of The Journal News.”

  • trent

    Is it just me, or does anyone else think that Joba will not be a starter? Not now or next year. Hughes is better suited for the roll.

    • http://dinosaursneverexisted.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/melky.jpg Drew

      Cash has made it clear that it will be a competition in ST.

      If Hughes wins that battle, I’d assume Joba will be sent to AAA rather than teh pen.

      • Bo

        why would they send him to AAA?

        they arent going to stash one of their better pitchers in the minors waiting for injury. Thats why you have depth. Thats why you have mitre, gaudin, etc.

    • Zack

      why is Hughes better suited for the roll?

      • Steve H

        He’s buttery.

        • Dave

          HA