Dec
11

Open Thread: Looking at the Granderson Trade

By

Someone asked about using the Trade Value Calculator to analyze the Curtis Granderson deal in our Lice Chat earlier today (it’s part of our public awareness campaign, lice is a serious issue among children age 4-15), so I figured it would make for a good open thread topic. I’ve used the Trade Value Calculator before, once for King Felix and once for Josh Johnson, but it’s not a serious analysis tool. It’s just something fun to look at, really.

Here’s what the Yanks gained and lost in the deal. Make sure you click to get a larger view.

Granderson Trade Value Calc1

Here’s my assumptions:

  1. All WAR data, basically best case progression for each player.
  2. Salary for the remainder of Kennedy and Coke’s pre-arbitration years.
  3. Granderson being a Type-A free agent when his contract is up, Kennedy a Type-B, and Coke a Type-nothing.

Based on Victor Wang’s research, Austin Jackson is worth $23.4M in a trade (top 26-50 hitting prospect), so that makes the total value of the three players the Yankees gave up $62.6M. Granderson, as you can see, is worth either $39.9M or $48.2M depending on whether or not his option picked up. On the surface, the Yankees lost the trade. If you’re curious to see the entire three team trade, click here. As you can see, Detroit wins big.

I have no idea how to (or even if you can) post an editable spreadsheet, so if you want to play around with the Trade Value Calculator, you can download it here. Remember, this is not a serious analysis, so don’t get too upset that the Yanks “lost” the deal.

Anyway, here’s your open thread for the night. The Devils, Knicks, and Nets are all in action. Have at it.

Categories : Open Thread

227 Comments»

  1. JMK THE OVERSHARE's Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor says:

    RAB should develop their own Trade Machine like the one they have on that horrible Voldemort-ian sporting site.

  2. Doug says:

    That Lice Chat really went through the implications of the Granderson trade with a fine-toothed comb.

  3. RichYF says:

    I don’t think they go Halladay because I think it would be a disaster to give up Buccholz and Kelly and then try to pay a guy with his medical history $18 million a year through the age of 38. That won’t happen.

    Diamond Cutters, Peter Gammons, Etc.

    Hilarious.

  4. Mike bk says:

    “If the Red Sox don’t end up with either Bay or Matt Holliday, Gammons opined that Boston could pursue a defense-first strategy for a season by signing Mike Cameron and Xavier Nady. Or, Boston could just save their money now and stand pat until mid-season before making any trades.”

    add that to the list of reasons to sign Cameron cause i dont see them bringing Damon back.

  5. Steve H says:

    I don’t want Holliday for what he’s expected to get, but at what point would everyone be intrigued? I know in the past his dad has expressed a desire for him to play for the Yankees, and while I don’t expect him to take a lower offer from the Yankees (although Beltran would have), if the price drops enough, my interest in Holliday is piqued. That being said, when Brandon Lyon gets 3/$15 mil, I doubt Holliday will have any trouble getting what he’s realistically looking for.

    • Mike bk says:

      i think the best fit for holliday might be to go the Giants if they have the money. they offered five years to Bay and if you will do that six to holliday is not unreasonable. it gives them a legit bat to go w all that pitching.

  6. Ed says:

    The Kennedy evaluation is a little off. He has under 1 year of service time, which means he still has 6 seasons of team control, not 5. He had 108 days service time coming into 2009, and he was a September call up, so if he never hits the minors again he’ll actually be on the bubble of super 2 status 2 years from now.

  7. Steve H says:

    JJ Putz signing with the palehose make Jenks more available, or do they not think Putz can close (at least this year)?

    • Evil Empire says:

      This is from the ESPN report of him signing:

      “Putz can make another $3.25 million in incentives, but that figure is based on him closing games all season.”

      So its a definitive possibility that Jenks is traded or non-tender’d. I dunno if he’s worth the prospects + $7.5Mish through arb, but if he gets non-tender’d that could be a great signing for whoever gets him.

  8. Mike bk says:

    other than us if damon wants 10+ mil and 2 years guaranteed what realistic options does he have out there? Mets? Giants? Sox? Angels? Im not sure there is a team that would go 2 years especially at 10 mil+

    • Salty Buggah says:

      I agree. That’s why I hope they wait him out so they can get him for cheap. That may not be possible with Cash having to address other needs also but hopefully somehow they can.

      • Mike bk says:

        what about this salty? they sign Cameron for 8-9 mil now and wait out Damon or Matsui to see which they could almost get on an Abreu type move from a year ago?

        • Salty Buggah says:

          I would love it if that happened.

        • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster) says:

          That would be great.

        • Abe says:

          I may be in the minority here but I am okay to see Damon go. The reason is that Cameron is a better fielder and you don’t lose too much production now that you have the 2-hole filled by Granderson. I think that Cameron, based on WAR, is probably the better player between the two going forward and am more keen on him then Damon for LF. Then I don’t see why the Yanks would want Damon for the DH role when they could likely get Matsui for cheaper since Damon’s price will be inflated as him and Boras won’t take DH money even if he is going to DH. Plus Matsui is the better hitter between the two. If no Matsui then the Yanks can look at Thome or Vlad. Therefore, if the Yanks are able to get Cameron then I at ease seeing Damon go and think that the team will be better for it.

  9. Salty Buggah says:

    Royals sign Jason Kendall for 2 yr/$6 mil + incentives. First of all, why the incentives? Isn’t 2/6 enough? Second, are you kidding me Royals? Why waste money on a guy like Kendall?!? Betancourt and Kendall, worst offensive players from AL and NL, respectively, in the same lineup AND being paid a combined $15 mil (at least) in the next 2 years (Betancourt: 10:$3M, 11:$4M, 12:$6M club option ($2M buyout). They also will be paying Jose Guillen 12 mil and Kyle Farnsworth 4.5 mil in 2010.

  10. Seriously? No Hanukah celebrators on RAB tonight?

    Holidays blow.

  11. Salty Buggah says:

    Speaking of catchers, I hope Navarro get non-tendered by TB so we can get him for backup C.

  12. Length of final: 40 questions.
    Time needed to complete final: 8 minutes.
    Average time needed per question: 12 seconds.

    I love easy “A”s.

  13. Salty Buggah says:

    “Ohio winds send trampoline bouncing onto roof” http://tinyurl.com/yjxu3cy

    Could it have been a prank or something?

  14. Brooklyn Ed says:

    Nick Swisher to guest star on How I Met Your Mother!!

    http://www.tvsquad.com/2009/12.....ur-mother/

    sweeeeet.

  15. ColoYank says:

    So, who you think the Yanks non-tender? Wang? Gaudin? My feeling is I’d rather have both back at the right expense. I know … that applies to the whole roster.

  16. Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster) says:

    WE’RE WAY BEHIND, PEOPLE.

    VOTE FOR RAB!

    http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/

  17. DBHOF says:

    Getting Ian Kennedy out of this organization……………..priceless.

    That kid is at best a back end starter on a bad team in the NL someday.

    all i got to is is : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFhjhff_CF4 (just the first word of audio ignor the rest)

  18. Fabio says:

    Your table probably has a bug. You copied the last year of IPK into the last year of Phil Coke. Shouldn’t be a significant difference overall, maybe a million or so in value, except for Coke, who would love being the highest paid LOOGY ever with $9.4M in 2014(was he traded to Kansas at the end of 2013?).

  19. DP says:

    Is it just me or is there a lot less stupidity on the open threads? Does RAB get linked from other places during the day or something?

    • pat says:

      Trolling is only a 9-5 job. Luckily open threads are after the normal troll operating hours. That and they’re usually all the regulars bullshitting about random stuff.

  20. Brooklyn Ed says:

    If Damon and Matsui does goes elsewhere, I want Cashman to try to aquire Josh Willingham. The Nationals want pitching in return. Would Zack Mcallister be good?

  21. There’s so little on TV right now that I’m watching the NBA.

  22. From Peter Gammons’ final ESPN column: “In the past 15 years, Rivera is the sport’s MVP and Cy Young…”

    head, explode

  23. Christos says:

    Why the big jump in WAR by Coke the last projected year?

  24. Abe says:

    Watching the Cavs v. Blazers game on ESPN. Every time I watch the Cavs play, Anderson Varejao has one play every game where he does something totally ridiculous on offense. The funny thing is that no one on the Cavs gets upset. It’s as if everyone on the Cavs knows it’s coming and that the ‘Varejao Moment’ of the game. He just took the ball from the top of the key on the right, and decided he would drive the lane to see what’s going on. By the time he reached the paint on the left side, nothing was there so, he basically took a half backwards shot. Maybe Mike Brown tells him, “Ok Anderson, it time for your Moment,’ just to make sure it doesn’t happen in the 4th quarter.

  25. DreDog says:

    Anyone else psyched about Cash’s trend to get character guys recently? CC, Tex, Granderson are all reported to be great guys with good character. Swish and AJ bring their special touch too. I wonder if that has played a part in Cash’s deals.

    • pat says:

      I can see the trend but there is much more important underlying connection between them then just being good guys.

      They’re really freaking good ballplayers.

    • They could be total D-Bags but as long as they can hit/field, I’m fine with them.

      • JMK THE OVERSHARE's Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor says:

        For real. I don’t care about their character. Anyone who says their kids need a role model to look up to, and think the players should be that, are poor parents. Don’t get me wrong, I’m happy that we have nice, high-character guys and centaurs. But it shouldn’t be a requirement. Minotaurs should, though.

    • Geg says:

      Cash took talent above anything

  26. pat says:

    I can honestly say I don’t give two flying shitfucks about this Tiger Woods stuff. I’d actually be disappointed if I found out that a handsome 30 yr old pro athlete billionaire wasn’t getting all sorts of wild and crazy tang. America’s fascination with building people up only to revel in tearing them down is pretty sad IMO.

    • JobaWockeeZ says:

      Word. The bad things I’d do with a billion dollars…

      • DreDog says:

        I agree, but I’ll still follow it. I may not give a rat’s ass, but I get a chuckle out of it. Kind of like following the Nets.

    • Salty Buggah says:

      Pat: The voice of rationality

    • Riddering says:

      Eh. More guys should follow the Jeter Plan. It isn’t news if you don’t have a wife.

      • +100000000 That’s why this is such a big deal.

        But interestingly enough, we know very little about his wife, yet we all assume she’s a victim. Maybe she is, or maybe she’s a hideous bitch who’s impossible to live with, or maybe she’s a bisexual who was joining him in his escapades.

        Or maybe she’s a sweet girl who’s the last person on Earth this should ever happen to and Tiger is just a heartless jerk. We really don’t know, we know next to nothing about his home life yet the assumptions so many people are making amaze me.

        I try to not pass judgment on other people’s relationships. They’re usually way more complicated than outsiders ever know.

        • Riddering says:

          Yeah, I’m not assuming that his wife put her all into making the marriage work and Tiger still decided to go around with the Perkins waitstaff.

          The older I get, the more I am anti-marriage in that people still perpetrate the idea that it’s a step of universal adulthood when really it’s a faulty institution that doesn’t work for everyone.

          • If you want to have kids, you should get married and forget fooling around at that point. Kids need two parents. But it should be a conscious, sober decision on both sides. Many people get married way too young, do it because ‘they’re in love’. They have no idea how hard it is to raise kids, how relationships change over time and end up miserable.

            Everyone thinks it’s just them, that they picked the wrong partner. Meanwhile, most of the married people on the planet go through the exact same thing. Marriage counselors have a speech that they read to every couple that walks in, and it almost always applies, with a few small variations.

    • Abe says:

      Yea everyone takes this opportunity to tear Tiger down. It’s like we want to find fault in these athletes that we love, and when we finally do, we eat all that shit up. Then the MSM just runs with the story for days on end. Bill Simmons, who I forgot even writes columns anymore, just had a mental masturbation article in which he just throws out theories about what could have happened. Anyone read Phillip Roth’s “The Human Stain?” It’s all about how we shouldn’t just go around tearing people down just because we may envy them, and how we don’t know any of these people at all, yet we are all allowed to pass judgement. The same happened with the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal.

  27. AndrewYF says:

    One thing Victor’s research doesn’t take into account is that players like Kennedy and Coke are pretty easily replaceable. Unless you’re the Astros and have a perennial terrible farm system, “replacement level” is much worse than reality.

  28. Geg says:

    The Grandy trade is robbery. Kennedy is a long reliever. AJ won’t hit. Coke is a dime a dozen.

  29. Steve H says:

    Klaw in tweeting tonight and just killing the Kendall signing. Good stuff.

  30. ultimate913 says:

    Is there a RAB group on facebook? If not, can someone make one?

  31. Here’s a preview of my morning post at TYU. It’s a WFAN interview with Cash that I transcribed partially. There’s some interesting Cash quotes for you guys to check out-

    http://www.wfan.com/topic/play.....Id=4225782

    Mike Francesa-”Do you have enough on your current roster to go to Spring Training right now, as far as Starting Pitching goes, or in your mind do you have to add a Starting Pitching component?”

    Brian Cashman-”I think I’d like to add if I could. It’s just that the prices on some of these (free agents) are prohibitive, and it’s a very limited list as well, the list that we would have an interest in. It goes from a comfort level of knowing this will help, versus the choices of players that you want to take flyers on, and hey, you might get lucky and catch lightning in a bottle like we’ve done in years past with certain guys. That’s kind of where it’s at right now. If we go that route (the latter) we’ll obviously pour more money into a position player addition or so. Or if we want to go with more certainty, we play on one of the more obvious players that are out there, that’s the wrestling match, it all depends on the conversations (with agents) and how they go. That can push it one way or the other. ”

    Mike Francesa-”So you could be a player for one of the prominent guys out there? It’s not out of the question.”

    Brian Cashman-”I wouldn’t rule anything out, but some things are harder than others. “

    Sounds like Lackey is someone who’d have to come way down on his price for the Yanks to have any interest. A ‘lightning in a bottle’ guy could be a Kelvim Escobar or even a Chien Ming Wang in the spring, once they’ve had a chance to see him pitch. Even Ben Sheets at 7-8 mil (plus incentives) sounds like it could be difficult, but I wouldn’t rule it out from what Brian said. He clearly would like to add a pitcher, but spending that kind of money would mean he’s pretty much done for the off season. With the Damon talks breaking down, the 9 mil they offered Johnny could go to bolstering their rotation with a player like Sheets. That would also mean one of Joba or Hughes would likely go to the bullpen, according to Brian.

    If he misses out on adding some pitching, the position player he was referring to could be a Mike Cameron (who’d be a perfect fit in every way) or a Nick Johnson or a few bench players. Later in the interview, he reiterated that the he has a firm, set payroll for 2010, and it will be lower than the 2009 payroll was. He’d have to get approval from Hal Steinbrenner to exceed that number, and he made clear that is something Hal doesn’t do lightly, like his father did.

    • JMK THE OVERSHARE's Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor says:

      I’m not sure I like the idea of signing sheets and banishing one of Hughes or Joba to the bullpen. They need to commit to them starting. Say you sign Sheets and Hughes is back to the ‘pen. Maybe that helps your team a bit in the short team, but maybe not. Sheets is no mortal lock to even be better than Hughes. His injury history is poor (even though they all seem like fluke injuries, it points to a durability problem) and he may not be able to even eat many innings. If he’s healthy the whole year? Yeah, you just signed up for a good #2 starter and 180 innings. But he won’t be cheap considering his risk, money and how it affects our young starter tandem.

      That’s one more year where his arm isn’t built up. Next year you’d presumably see Andy retire, Sheets leave again, Joba with another season under his belt. That’s three starters by my calculation. Hughes loses another year of service time and still hasn’t gotten starter experience.

      • I’m just relaying what I heard Brian say. But you have to read between the lines a lot with Brian. Listen to the interview yourself, maybe you’ll get a different take.

        He said if he got a pitcher who gives them ‘certainty’ or a ‘killer’ pitcher they would have to have meetings and discuss what to do with Joba/Hughes. But I seriously doubt he would send either back to the minors. He had that option this year and chose not to with Phil. If there’s a need in the bullpen, I don’t see either going to AAA.

        I’ve never been as ideologically opposed to it as some folks are around here. You can get MLB experience out of the bullpen, too. Many great pitchers started their careers in the pen. Wouldn’t bother me, and I’d still view both of them as starters long term.

        • JMK THE OVERSHARE's Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor says:

          I never mentioned the minors. I agree that it’s not an option; they’re easily among the twelve best, and they provide too much value for the minors. I’ve never subscribed to the tiresome Joba, Hughes to the pen/starter argument. We both agree their value i best as starters and they should remain there until it’s clear they’re not up to snuff.

          That said, the longer you continue to drop them back for short-term quick-fixes, the less value you get out of them for the long haul. Maybe Sheets would provide an upgrade today, but if it means we’ve sacrificed the future or they don’t develop until they hit their arb year, well, you’ve missed a huge chance at a major goal of ALL organizations—fantastic production for marginal pay.

          I’m opposed to that ideologically.

          • I don’t see how either of them logging MLB innings effectively sacrifices anything. They’re helping the team win and learning the league in small bites.

            If they’re good enough, they’ll stick in the bigs. Blaming bullpen use on a failed pitching prospect would be pretty lame. There’s no magic number of innings that pitchers need, it’s more about learning, gaining confidence and maturing.

      • Kiersten says:

        When Sheets is healthy, he’s good. If he’s pitching, he’s just about a mortal lock to be better than Hughes. It’s the if that’s the problem.
        And if we sign Sheets, there’s a good chance (based on history) that one of AJ or Sheets gets injured at some point, then Hughes could step in, pitch for a while, and most likely not exceed 150 IP. With the way the rotation’s set up now, if someone goes down to injury, we have Mitre to step in.

        • That would argue for sending Phil down to AAA and keeping him stretched out. But he could help us more as the bridge to Mo, we saw how good he was in that role last year.

          For the occasional spot start, I don’t think sending him to AAA makes sense. You can have the Gaudins and Mitres fill in for a few weeks if needed. If it’s a major injury, or more than one starter goes down, you send Hughes down to AAA to get stretched out and you’ll have him in a few weeks.

        • JMK THE OVERSHARE's Milton Bradley Fat Park Factor says:

          Yes, he’s a better pitcher. I said nothing to the contrary. But his value is only better if he does pitch a lot of innings. I wouldn’t hedge my bets on that happening. He’ll probably cost $9 million or more, meaning if our budget allows for about $14 million left to be spent, we’re filling pieces with scraps and trades (which carry their owns risks). Maybe, just maybe you can pick up a lower-level DH for $4 million.

          On pure stuff, Andy is our #5 starter. We have four pitchers that could all be 1s and 2s. Not that they will, but it wouldn’t be crazy to see them all excel. Sheets, with his risks, is just not a good allocation of resources considering our needs at this point. Sheets just isn’t a need.

          We do have a depth problem with the rotation. Agreed. But I don’t think we need a guy like Sheets. Skip Sheets, sign a Dusch-type, Wang or figure out a lower-cost option that can eat innings and keep you in games. They’re not great pitchers, but I think they offer a better cost/benefit with our roster construction.

          /rambling

  32. Riddering says:

    You know what I adamantly dislike? Watching I movie I remember loving as a child or young adult and then renting it later in life only to realize how much my taste sucked.

    On the other hand, Terminator 2 is still the shit.

  33. Steve H says:

    After the Royals signed Jason Kendall for two years, the Failblog upgraded its servers. #jasonkendallfacts

  34. Matcohen says:

    I think that Kennedy’s numbers are not an average probability weighted value. There is a fair chance that he is a bust. His walks were high for a top prospect in the minors and were very high in his limited experience in the majors.

  35. donttradecano says:

    Knicks creeping toward .500

  36. emac2 says:

    Nice to see a clear proof of how much we overpaid for granderson. I don’t agree with any of their actual values but they seem reasonable in relation to each other if not to an actual dollar value I would pay.

    If the opportunity presented itself would you trade AJ in a multi team deal that netted Roy for Philly and Lee for us? – 4th team would get AJ.

    I prefer Lee and like the idea of directing all of the good pitchers away for the AL east.

  37. toad says:

    It doesn’t make sense to me to calculate Granderson’s value based on 5.0 WAR in 2012 and a decline of his option.

    If his option is declined it will be because he performed much below these projections, maybe under 3.0 in 2012. Of course I understand that you’re just fooling around here, but even so there should be some internal consistency.

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