Open Thread: Looking at the Granderson Trade
BySomeone asked about using the Trade Value Calculator to analyze the Curtis Granderson deal in our Lice Chat earlier today (it’s part of our public awareness campaign, lice is a serious issue among children age 4-15), so I figured it would make for a good open thread topic. I’ve used the Trade Value Calculator before, once for King Felix and once for Josh Johnson, but it’s not a serious analysis tool. It’s just something fun to look at, really.
Here’s what the Yanks gained and lost in the deal. Make sure you click to get a larger view.
Here’s my assumptions:
- All WAR data, basically best case progression for each player.
- Salary for the remainder of Kennedy and Coke’s pre-arbitration years.
- Granderson being a Type-A free agent when his contract is up, Kennedy a Type-B, and Coke a Type-nothing.
Based on Victor Wang’s research, Austin Jackson is worth $23.4M in a trade (top 26-50 hitting prospect), so that makes the total value of the three players the Yankees gave up $62.6M. Granderson, as you can see, is worth either $39.9M or $48.2M depending on whether or not his option picked up. On the surface, the Yankees lost the trade. If you’re curious to see the entire three team trade, click here. As you can see, Detroit wins big.
I have no idea how to (or even if you can) post an editable spreadsheet, so if you want to play around with the Trade Value Calculator, you can download it here. Remember, this is not a serious analysis, so don’t get too upset that the Yanks “lost” the deal.
Anyway, here’s your open thread for the night. The Devils, Knicks, and Nets are all in action. Have at it.
227 Comments»
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RAB should develop their own Trade Machine like the one they have on that horrible Voldemort-ian sporting site.
Don’t say the name!
That Lice Chat really went through the implications of the Granderson trade with a fine-toothed comb.
http://www.instantrimshot.com/
I don’t think they go Halladay because I think it would be a disaster to give up Buccholz and Kelly and then try to pay a guy with his medical history $18 million a year through the age of 38. That won’t happen.
Diamond Cutters, Peter Gammons, Etc.
Hilarious.
Is that a joke or did he really say that?
Sadly enough, he did. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....d-sox.html
WTH?
If San Fran offers Bay 5 years, he really thinks he won’t go there?
Xavier Nady? Defense
Where would Cameron AND Nady play?
The whole Halladay thing is absurd
Scutaro is going to mentor a 19 yr old SS who will be in the minors next season?
I think Gammons may have had a few too many drinks at his going away party at ESPN
“If the Red Sox don’t end up with either Bay or Matt Holliday, Gammons opined that Boston could pursue a defense-first strategy for a season by signing Mike Cameron and Xavier Nady. Or, Boston could just save their money now and stand pat until mid-season before making any trades.”
add that to the list of reasons to sign Cameron cause i dont see them bringing Damon back.
Defense first…Xavier Nady? Hah!
I don’t want Holliday for what he’s expected to get, but at what point would everyone be intrigued? I know in the past his dad has expressed a desire for him to play for the Yankees, and while I don’t expect him to take a lower offer from the Yankees (although Beltran would have), if the price drops enough, my interest in Holliday is piqued. That being said, when Brandon Lyon gets 3/$15 mil, I doubt Holliday will have any trouble getting what he’s realistically looking for.
i think the best fit for holliday might be to go the Giants if they have the money. they offered five years to Bay and if you will do that six to holliday is not unreasonable. it gives them a legit bat to go w all that pitching.
Where all mah Heebs at?
HAG SAMEAKH BITCHES!
http://s3.amazonaws.com/twitpi.....eb%2BPE%3D
Right here, Rebecca. Chag Sameach to you too.
The Kennedy evaluation is a little off. He has under 1 year of service time, which means he still has 6 seasons of team control, not 5. He had 108 days service time coming into 2009, and he was a September call up, so if he never hits the minors again he’ll actually be on the bubble of super 2 status 2 years from now.
JJ Putz signing with the palehose make Jenks more available, or do they not think Putz can close (at least this year)?
This is from the ESPN report of him signing:
“Putz can make another $3.25 million in incentives, but that figure is based on him closing games all season.”
So its a definitive possibility that Jenks is traded or non-tender’d. I dunno if he’s worth the prospects + $7.5Mish through arb, but if he gets non-tender’d that could be a great signing for whoever gets him.
I want him simply to put him in the 8th, and shut up the you know who’ers.
other than us if damon wants 10+ mil and 2 years guaranteed what realistic options does he have out there? Mets? Giants? Sox? Angels? Im not sure there is a team that would go 2 years especially at 10 mil+
I agree. That’s why I hope they wait him out so they can get him for cheap. That may not be possible with Cash having to address other needs also but hopefully somehow they can.
what about this salty? they sign Cameron for 8-9 mil now and wait out Damon or Matsui to see which they could almost get on an Abreu type move from a year ago?
I would love it if that happened.
That would be great.
I may be in the minority here but I am okay to see Damon go. The reason is that Cameron is a better fielder and you don’t lose too much production now that you have the 2-hole filled by Granderson. I think that Cameron, based on WAR, is probably the better player between the two going forward and am more keen on him then Damon for LF. Then I don’t see why the Yanks would want Damon for the DH role when they could likely get Matsui for cheaper since Damon’s price will be inflated as him and Boras won’t take DH money even if he is going to DH. Plus Matsui is the better hitter between the two. If no Matsui then the Yanks can look at Thome or Vlad. Therefore, if the Yanks are able to get Cameron then I at ease seeing Damon go and think that the team will be better for it.
Royals sign Jason Kendall for 2 yr/$6 mil + incentives. First of all, why the incentives? Isn’t 2/6 enough? Second, are you kidding me Royals? Why waste money on a guy like Kendall?!? Betancourt and Kendall, worst offensive players from AL and NL, respectively, in the same lineup AND being paid a combined $15 mil (at least) in the next 2 years (Betancourt: 10:$3M, 11:$4M, 12:$6M club option ($2M buyout). They also will be paying Jose Guillen 12 mil and Kyle Farnsworth 4.5 mil in 2010.
Forgot to add the
:facepalm:
Brutal.
Gregg Zaun got 1/$2.25 mil, Kendall and Pudge get 2/$6 mil.
Could major league GM’s, who get paid very handsomely to try and win games get fooled by “big name” players? Gregg Zaun is significantly better than Kendall and Pudge, and he gets less years and less money.
Via Posnanski: Royals 2010 projected lineup by 2009 OPS+: 106, 74, 124!, 80, 86, 76, 72, 68, 68
Wow. I’m speechless
Greinke is going to have to win the CY with a 10-18 record this year.
Do they have anyone who plays good defense, even?
Greinke, again. DeJesus too. Other than that? Hmmm…I have no idea.
That is just a brutal lineup.
If that’s how you’re going to run a team, why not just put together a squad of your best minor league players and call it a day. Why bother spending any money at all?
Holy shitballs that’s pathetic.
Billy Butler and the Nobodies.
The Royals could’ve waited for the possibility of Dioner Navarro getting non-tendered. Terrible mismanagement of money is the best way to describe the last few moves that the Royals have made.
But it’s the Yankees’ fault that the Royals can’t compete.
Seriously? No Hanukah celebrators on RAB tonight?
Holidays blow.
i got you.
Chag Sameach!
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe Hannukah is a very minor Jewish holiday, no?
You just want to ruin my fun.
Yes.
But there are presents.
/took half the day off to bake for tomorrow’s progressive dinner. My holidays ain’t blowin’ so far. Also, got next week off.
I got ya! Light it up!
Speaking of catchers, I hope Navarro get non-tendered by TB so we can get him for backup C.
But didn’t you read that kid’s post earlier? He’s eaten his way out of the league!
Huh?
There’ve been allegations about Navarro’s weight and lack of training. I think he’d be worth a look-see, too.
Interesting. I didn’t know that. But it stilll could be a decent option
Length of final: 40 questions.
Time needed to complete final: 8 minutes.
Average time needed per question: 12 seconds.
I love easy “A”s.
What was the course?
Windows Workstation Administration. Last required course for my Computer Science Associate’s Degree.
“Ohio winds send trampoline bouncing onto roof” http://tinyurl.com/yjxu3cy
Could it have been a prank or something?
High winds could easily lift something light like a trampoline up off the ground and make it fly. It doesn’t have to be a hoax.
Oh I know but I was just wondering
Nick Swisher to guest star on How I Met Your Mother!!
http://www.tvsquad.com/2009/12.....ur-mother/
sweeeeet.
Better than letting Tiger Woods on.
Pfft. http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....ent-713292
Salty > Brooklyn Ed
lol oops, my bad dude..guess im really late.
Heh, I was just messing with you
His girlfriend was just on, so now it’s his turn.
So, who you think the Yanks non-tender? Wang? Gaudin? My feeling is I’d rather have both back at the right expense. I know … that applies to the whole roster.
WE’RE WAY BEHIND, PEOPLE.
VOTE FOR RAB!
http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/
ITS ONLY THE MOST IMPORTANT POLL IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNIVERSE.
THIS UNIVERSE!!!!
/Couldn’t resist
Touche, sir.
That’s fucking funny.
I just want you guys to know I’m a true RAB loyalist. I’m stuffing the ballot boxes.
Getting Ian Kennedy out of this organization……………..priceless.
That kid is at best a back end starter on a bad team in the NL someday.
all i got to is is : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFhjhff_CF4 (just the first word of audio ignor the rest)
Getting value for Ian Kennedy because people around baseball think he’ll be a good pitcher: Priceless.
I’ll miss Kennedy.
Yeah, I HATE having a guy who can — at worst — step in and fill the back slot of the rotation for the league minimum when the inevitable injuries strike. I’d much rather sign a couple $5MM rehab cases each year to take up several roster spots to perform the same task.
At worst? At worst he performs worse than Sidney Ponson. That’s not ‘filling in’ for anyone.
AH yes the unbridled and idiotic hatred for a kid who’s pitched 60 innings in the majors. Happy Hollidays!
But he was a baby! And a primadonna!
He had an Ego! He sullied the integrity of the sport of baseball by not crying after a bad start!
Haha, that reaction was so ridiculous. What did everyone want him to do? Sulk and say he sucked?
Kim Jones: “So, Ian, you had a rough start today. It seemed like you were leaving your curve ball up in the zone. Do you think that’s something you, Dave and Jorge can work on before the next start?”
Ian Kennedy: “No! I cannot have another chance in my life! Because I lie and sign myself to lies! Because I am not worth the dust on the feet of them that hang!”
[Kennedy immediately falls to the floor, rips off his uniform, and begins to beat himself across the back with a cat-o-nine-tails until he is bleeding profusely.]
Kim Jones: “Thank you Ian for your honesty. Michael, back to you.”
…and scene.
/Arthur Miller’d
Haha, I just quoted Crucible like a couple days ago on RAB…I’ll try and find the link.
Can’t believe how much of that play sticks in my mind.
Dammit, I just looked back all the way to a couple threads before yesterday’s open thread. No dice.
The hatred over 60 innings is astonishing. You can’t have the kind of career he had up until his short time in the majors and be completely terrible. He may not put it together, but he has the potential to be a good pitcher.
IMO, Kennedy would have added more value to the Yanks in the next 2 years than A-Jax would have. I just did not see him cracking the lineup anytime soon.
He could’ve by later in the second half, I think. But, his contributions wouldn’t have been big til 2011, IMO.
Yea true that. I just think that some fans are really undervaluing Kennedy. I like the trade but Kennedy is a nice insurance policy.
Oh definitely. He’s way undervalued, IMO.
I blame O’Neil. He set the gold standard for shit flipping. New Yorkers loved that shit and use it against guys to this day. Strikeout with RISP? Kick a watercooler. Weak popup to left? Smash the bat rack. In NY if you’re not flipping out after failing you ain’t trying.
Remember when he would practice his swing in the OF? Grit.
Ted Williams woulkd do that too. Therefore Paul O’Neill was = to Ted Williams.
Actually, Paul O’Neill >>>>> Ted Williams. 5 WS titles > 0.
True, but Teddy Ballgame probably had more confirmed kills.
Sgt. Donny Donowitz: Teddy fuckin’ Williams knocks it out of the park! Fenway Park on its feet for Teddy! Fuckin’ ballgame! He went yardo on that one, on to fuckin’ Lansdowne Street!
Matt let me ask you a question.. When you get home, do you take your blogging uniform off?
I take it off when I leave mid-afternoon. Then, when I get home, it’s on. All night.
paul o’neill >>>> ted williams
cause he is still breathing
And, Pat, I’d be remiss if I didn’t ask you if you take off your deviant’s outfit when you go into public.
Hahah, GOOD TRY. My deviance is more then skin deep. I was actually referring to the line from Basterds where Aldo asks the Nazis if they take off their Nazi uniforms when they get home. Then he carves a swastika in their foreheads.
D’oh! I forgot that line exactly.
But, now that you mention it, yeah, I don’t ever take it off. Ever. So, no need to brand my forehead with a big “B.”
*Than.
Isn’t Ted now a-head?
*cough*
ok maybe this one is better this announcer must have went to the chip caray school of broadcasting
Your table probably has a bug. You copied the last year of IPK into the last year of Phil Coke. Shouldn’t be a significant difference overall, maybe a million or so in value, except for Coke, who would love being the highest paid LOOGY ever with $9.4M in 2014(was he traded to Kansas at the end of 2013?).
Is it just me or is there a lot less stupidity on the open threads? Does RAB get linked from other places during the day or something?
Trolling is only a 9-5 job. Luckily open threads are after the normal troll operating hours. That and they’re usually all the regulars bullshitting about random stuff.
If Damon and Matsui does goes elsewhere, I want Cashman to try to aquire Josh Willingham. The Nationals want pitching in return. Would Zack Mcallister be good?
I think they are reluctant to give up Willingham (with good reason)
+1.
I don’t think he’ll be available.
http://voices.washingtonpost.c.....trade.html
Nevermind, then.
He’d be a good option for the right price.
definitley. either package Cabrera or Gardner with some pitching would be ideal.
“and GM Mike Rizzo is a pitching-and-defense advocate”
I think that’s where the article lost me. Adam Dunn, Cristian Guzman, and Elijah Dukes say hello.
Well, he inherited those guys.
Not Dukes or Dunn. I thought he extended Guzman but I guess I was thinking of Dmitri Young and Ronnie Belliard. Oh yeah, also, Pudge? Great GM. My friend is like family friends with the Lerners, and won’t say a bad thing about them. They spend money in ALL the wrong places (non-Zimmerman division)
I thought Dunn was signed before last season before Rizzo took over mid-season this year, no?
Jeez huge failure on my part. I was reading wikipedia and glossed over the “assistant” part when it said he took over in 2006. Bowden’s the idiot my bad.
DFA’d
Elijah Dukes is a much better corner outfielder than center fielder.
Am I the only one who thinks of Frank Rizzo whenever I hear or read the Nationals GM’s name?
I think of this:
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix.....24x423.jpg (safe)
actually Willingham had some bad months in 2009, and still put up some decent numbers. since the Nats want pitching, they have to give up something to gain something. Keep in mind, the Nats got Willingham from the Marlins for nothing.
There’s so little on TV right now that I’m watching the NBA.
That’s why you need Yankees Classics on the DVR. I’m watching AJ shut down the Mets. Is it April yet?
Which time?
http://www.baseball-reference......6270.shtml
Not sure I’d classify it as a “Classic,” but I’ll take it.
I was at this one:
http://www.baseball-reference......6140.shtml
That was a pleasant game.
AJ owned the Mets last year.
http://www.baseball-reference......;t=p#oppon
You know what the best regular season game of the year was, if you take out all varibales except for the actual quality of the game played (variables such as importance of the game, how good the opposing team is, and how early in the season it is)?
Game 3 of walkoff weekend, May 17, 2009.
http://www.baseball-reference......5170.shtml
This was a game that, if it were vs. the Red Sox, would never stop being talked about.
Think about the seventh inning on:
Minny 7th: Score 2 runs, 1 on AJ wild pitch and one I believe (could be wrong) on walk
Yanks 7th: Score 2 runs on A-Rod HR, Matsui double and eventual Clutchy Cabrera sac fly.
Minny 8th: Minny loads bases with one out, Tomko comes in, Tex saves game with tremendous diving play and throw from knees to home plate.
Yanks 8th: Yanks load bases with 2 outs, 3-0 count to Matsui. He strikes out.
Minny 9th: Mariano Rivera pitches. This is an event in itself.
Yanks 9th: Mauer makes possible play of the year with tremendous diving play to nab Gardner at home plate
Minny 10th: Brief break in action as Aceves gets through the inning cleanly.
Yanks 10th: Johnny Damon walkoff HR
Think about how much excitement and drama was crammed into those final four innings. That was some ballgame.
That was such an awesome game.
maybe u should start drinking instead of watching the NBA
From Peter Gammons’ final ESPN column: “In the past 15 years, Rivera is the sport’s MVP and Cy Young…”
head, explode
Ugh.
I love Mariano as much as the next guy but that’s just batshit insanity.
If you read the article you’ll see he’s just going on a sentimental writing spree. I think he means of it more in an “ambassdor of the game” kind of way, not in any literal most valuable player type way.
Why the big jump in WAR by Coke the last projected year?
Contract year, baby.
Pavano style
The Coke stuff makes it unbelievable
I can’t wait til they try to start him in Detroit.
And AJ in center. That’s what happens when u waste $ on dreck. Maybe they have cut Magglio instead of letting the contract vest.
Ajax in CF >> Coke starting.
Watching the Cavs v. Blazers game on ESPN. Every time I watch the Cavs play, Anderson Varejao has one play every game where he does something totally ridiculous on offense. The funny thing is that no one on the Cavs gets upset. It’s as if everyone on the Cavs knows it’s coming and that the ‘Varejao Moment’ of the game. He just took the ball from the top of the key on the right, and decided he would drive the lane to see what’s going on. By the time he reached the paint on the left side, nothing was there so, he basically took a half backwards shot. Maybe Mike Brown tells him, “Ok Anderson, it time for your Moment,’ just to make sure it doesn’t happen in the 4th quarter.
Hah. I have money on him legitimately attempting a granny shot this season.
Anyone else psyched about Cash’s trend to get character guys recently? CC, Tex, Granderson are all reported to be great guys with good character. Swish and AJ bring their special touch too. I wonder if that has played a part in Cash’s deals.
I can see the trend but there is much more important underlying connection between them then just being good guys.
They’re really freaking good ballplayers.
They could be total D-Bags but as long as they can hit/field, I’m fine with them.
For real. I don’t care about their character. Anyone who says their kids need a role model to look up to, and think the players should be that, are poor parents. Don’t get me wrong, I’m happy that we have nice, high-character guys and centaurs. But it shouldn’t be a requirement. Minotaurs should, though.
Cash took talent above anything
I guess that’s the consensus. I also looked into them dealing Tabata, but I guess I am wrong.
I can honestly say I don’t give two flying shitfucks about this Tiger Woods stuff. I’d actually be disappointed if I found out that a handsome 30 yr old pro athlete billionaire wasn’t getting all sorts of wild and crazy tang. America’s fascination with building people up only to revel in tearing them down is pretty sad IMO.
Thaaaaaaaaank you.
But What would Moses say….
“Lucky Tiger. I can’t get any good ‘tang out here in this fuckin’ desert.”
The closes I’ve ever some to an affair was talking to a burning bush!
Incredible.
Not true! There are some VERY pretty women in Egypt. I’ve been.
Side note: they don’t find camel “hump” or “toe” jokes particularly funny.
Humorless people, the lot of them.
Word. The bad things I’d do with a billion dollars…
I agree, but I’ll still follow it. I may not give a rat’s ass, but I get a chuckle out of it. Kind of like following the Nets.
Pat: The voice of rationality
Eh. More guys should follow the Jeter Plan. It isn’t news if you don’t have a wife.
+100000000 That’s why this is such a big deal.
But interestingly enough, we know very little about his wife, yet we all assume she’s a victim. Maybe she is, or maybe she’s a hideous bitch who’s impossible to live with, or maybe she’s a bisexual who was joining him in his escapades.
Or maybe she’s a sweet girl who’s the last person on Earth this should ever happen to and Tiger is just a heartless jerk. We really don’t know, we know next to nothing about his home life yet the assumptions so many people are making amaze me.
I try to not pass judgment on other people’s relationships. They’re usually way more complicated than outsiders ever know.
Yeah, I’m not assuming that his wife put her all into making the marriage work and Tiger still decided to go around with the Perkins waitstaff.
The older I get, the more I am anti-marriage in that people still perpetrate the idea that it’s a step of universal adulthood when really it’s a faulty institution that doesn’t work for everyone.
If you want to have kids, you should get married and forget fooling around at that point. Kids need two parents. But it should be a conscious, sober decision on both sides. Many people get married way too young, do it because ‘they’re in love’. They have no idea how hard it is to raise kids, how relationships change over time and end up miserable.
Everyone thinks it’s just them, that they picked the wrong partner. Meanwhile, most of the married people on the planet go through the exact same thing. Marriage counselors have a speech that they read to every couple that walks in, and it almost always applies, with a few small variations.
Yes ma’am.
Yea everyone takes this opportunity to tear Tiger down. It’s like we want to find fault in these athletes that we love, and when we finally do, we eat all that shit up. Then the MSM just runs with the story for days on end. Bill Simmons, who I forgot even writes columns anymore, just had a mental masturbation article in which he just throws out theories about what could have happened. Anyone read Phillip Roth’s “The Human Stain?” It’s all about how we shouldn’t just go around tearing people down just because we may envy them, and how we don’t know any of these people at all, yet we are all allowed to pass judgement. The same happened with the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal.
*yet we all think we are allowed to pass judgement.
Does anyone remember how Clinton’s approval rating went up after the scandal even as the country beat its moral breast over his shenanigans?
Unfortunately, people like to see other people fail.
One thing Victor’s research doesn’t take into account is that players like Kennedy and Coke are pretty easily replaceable. Unless you’re the Astros and have a perennial terrible farm system, “replacement level” is much worse than reality.
The Grandy trade is robbery. Kennedy is a long reliever. AJ won’t hit. Coke is a dime a dozen.
Kennedy is a long reliever.
Yeah, no.
He doesn’t have the stuff to start. Even in the NL.
Uh, no. He has 4 legit pitches. Dude’s owned on EVERY level in his career so far. He struggled last year but killed it in his short time in 07. Let’s not give up on him because h struggled last year.
If you removed his name and showed his MILB stats to people, they would tell you this is one of the better young pitchers in the game. But a few hiccups as a young pitcher in the bigs and so many people are convinced he’s crap.
Yep.
And if I showed you Joba’s stats from 2009 w/o his name you would think it was something to build on rather than a disappointment.
I think IPK’s biggest problem was being too predictable, which was mostly due to being nervous. If his curve wasn’t sharp, he’d scrap it right away and go fastball change over and over again. You can’t be too predictable, MLB hitters make adjustments too quickly.
If he learns to use all of his pitches and not nibble so much, I think he could be a solid to very good MLB pitcher. It’s the tiniest of adjustments, mostly having to do with confidence.
Yep.
The latter part goes for Chamberlain as wel, but the ceiling is obviously higher.
The same could be said of Hughes as a starter. One of these days Phil will figure out not to throw every fastball the exact same speed. Smart pitchers show their fastball early in a good spot, mix in a better one in the middle and then save their best fastball for late in the count. It’s effectively 3 different pitches from the batters perspective.
Drove me nuts to watch him. Just trying too hard.
I think both Hughes and Joba take solid steps this season.
Well that’s just silly. Livan Hernandez throws like 84 mph.
Jamie Moyer throws like 24 mph on his good days
http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....ent-714835
http://www.baseball-reference......html?redir
Yeah, no.
Yeah, no.
Next up is Melky and Brackman for Pujols since apparently “garbage” gets us anything.
Yeah, they’d have to throw in Rasmus for that trade to be even remotely fair.
No. For Melky AND Brackman? The Cards would have to resign Holliday and than trade him to us, along with Pujols while the Cards eat all the salary. That would be somewhat fair but I still see the Cards winning that trade.
Klaw in tweeting tonight and just killing the Kendall signing. Good stuff.
RT @DempseysArmy In 2010, a manager will intentionally walk Yuniesky Betancourt to pitch to Jason Kendall. #jasonkendallfacts
Jason Kendall has so little power than when the Royals signed him, all the lights in Kansas City went out. #jasonkendallfacts
Jason Kendall is the only player in MLB history to post a negative ISO. #jasonkendallfacts
In 13 states, the penalty for walking Jason Kendall is death … from embarrassment. #jasonkendallfacts
The Lyon and Kendall contracts are two reasons why I don’t pity small market teams.
The Royals in general make me feel that way.
Farnsworth for 2/$9MM?
Traiding for Mike Jacobs (though he was released) and Yuniesky Betancourt?
Not at least trying to start Soria?
The Rays showed all the small market teams how you can win w/o spending all that much and the Twins do it every year.
Is there a RAB group on facebook? If not, can someone make one?
http://www.facebook.com/RiverAveBlues?ref=ts
Here’s a preview of my morning post at TYU. It’s a WFAN interview with Cash that I transcribed partially. There’s some interesting Cash quotes for you guys to check out-
http://www.wfan.com/topic/play.....Id=4225782
Mike Francesa-”Do you have enough on your current roster to go to Spring Training right now, as far as Starting Pitching goes, or in your mind do you have to add a Starting Pitching component?”
Brian Cashman-”I think I’d like to add if I could. It’s just that the prices on some of these (free agents) are prohibitive, and it’s a very limited list as well, the list that we would have an interest in. It goes from a comfort level of knowing this will help, versus the choices of players that you want to take flyers on, and hey, you might get lucky and catch lightning in a bottle like we’ve done in years past with certain guys. That’s kind of where it’s at right now. If we go that route (the latter) we’ll obviously pour more money into a position player addition or so. Or if we want to go with more certainty, we play on one of the more obvious players that are out there, that’s the wrestling match, it all depends on the conversations (with agents) and how they go. That can push it one way or the other. ”
Mike Francesa-”So you could be a player for one of the prominent guys out there? It’s not out of the question.”
Brian Cashman-”I wouldn’t rule anything out, but some things are harder than others. “
Sounds like Lackey is someone who’d have to come way down on his price for the Yanks to have any interest. A ‘lightning in a bottle’ guy could be a Kelvim Escobar or even a Chien Ming Wang in the spring, once they’ve had a chance to see him pitch. Even Ben Sheets at 7-8 mil (plus incentives) sounds like it could be difficult, but I wouldn’t rule it out from what Brian said. He clearly would like to add a pitcher, but spending that kind of money would mean he’s pretty much done for the off season. With the Damon talks breaking down, the 9 mil they offered Johnny could go to bolstering their rotation with a player like Sheets. That would also mean one of Joba or Hughes would likely go to the bullpen, according to Brian.
If he misses out on adding some pitching, the position player he was referring to could be a Mike Cameron (who’d be a perfect fit in every way) or a Nick Johnson or a few bench players. Later in the interview, he reiterated that the he has a firm, set payroll for 2010, and it will be lower than the 2009 payroll was. He’d have to get approval from Hal Steinbrenner to exceed that number, and he made clear that is something Hal doesn’t do lightly, like his father did.
I’m not sure I like the idea of signing sheets and banishing one of Hughes or Joba to the bullpen. They need to commit to them starting. Say you sign Sheets and Hughes is back to the ‘pen. Maybe that helps your team a bit in the short team, but maybe not. Sheets is no mortal lock to even be better than Hughes. His injury history is poor (even though they all seem like fluke injuries, it points to a durability problem) and he may not be able to even eat many innings. If he’s healthy the whole year? Yeah, you just signed up for a good #2 starter and 180 innings. But he won’t be cheap considering his risk, money and how it affects our young starter tandem.
That’s one more year where his arm isn’t built up. Next year you’d presumably see Andy retire, Sheets leave again, Joba with another season under his belt. That’s three starters by my calculation. Hughes loses another year of service time and still hasn’t gotten starter experience.
This is what I think.
I’m just relaying what I heard Brian say. But you have to read between the lines a lot with Brian. Listen to the interview yourself, maybe you’ll get a different take.
He said if he got a pitcher who gives them ‘certainty’ or a ‘killer’ pitcher they would have to have meetings and discuss what to do with Joba/Hughes. But I seriously doubt he would send either back to the minors. He had that option this year and chose not to with Phil. If there’s a need in the bullpen, I don’t see either going to AAA.
I’ve never been as ideologically opposed to it as some folks are around here. You can get MLB experience out of the bullpen, too. Many great pitchers started their careers in the pen. Wouldn’t bother me, and I’d still view both of them as starters long term.
I never mentioned the minors. I agree that it’s not an option; they’re easily among the twelve best, and they provide too much value for the minors. I’ve never subscribed to the tiresome Joba, Hughes to the pen/starter argument. We both agree their value i best as starters and they should remain there until it’s clear they’re not up to snuff.
That said, the longer you continue to drop them back for short-term quick-fixes, the less value you get out of them for the long haul. Maybe Sheets would provide an upgrade today, but if it means we’ve sacrificed the future or they don’t develop until they hit their arb year, well, you’ve missed a huge chance at a major goal of ALL organizations—fantastic production for marginal pay.
I’m opposed to that ideologically.
I don’t see how either of them logging MLB innings effectively sacrifices anything. They’re helping the team win and learning the league in small bites.
If they’re good enough, they’ll stick in the bigs. Blaming bullpen use on a failed pitching prospect would be pretty lame. There’s no magic number of innings that pitchers need, it’s more about learning, gaining confidence and maturing.
When Sheets is healthy, he’s good. If he’s pitching, he’s just about a mortal lock to be better than Hughes. It’s the if that’s the problem.
And if we sign Sheets, there’s a good chance (based on history) that one of AJ or Sheets gets injured at some point, then Hughes could step in, pitch for a while, and most likely not exceed 150 IP. With the way the rotation’s set up now, if someone goes down to injury, we have Mitre to step in.
That would argue for sending Phil down to AAA and keeping him stretched out. But he could help us more as the bridge to Mo, we saw how good he was in that role last year.
For the occasional spot start, I don’t think sending him to AAA makes sense. You can have the Gaudins and Mitres fill in for a few weeks if needed. If it’s a major injury, or more than one starter goes down, you send Hughes down to AAA to get stretched out and you’ll have him in a few weeks.
Yes, he’s a better pitcher. I said nothing to the contrary. But his value is only better if he does pitch a lot of innings. I wouldn’t hedge my bets on that happening. He’ll probably cost $9 million or more, meaning if our budget allows for about $14 million left to be spent, we’re filling pieces with scraps and trades (which carry their owns risks). Maybe, just maybe you can pick up a lower-level DH for $4 million.
On pure stuff, Andy is our #5 starter. We have four pitchers that could all be 1s and 2s. Not that they will, but it wouldn’t be crazy to see them all excel. Sheets, with his risks, is just not a good allocation of resources considering our needs at this point. Sheets just isn’t a need.
We do have a depth problem with the rotation. Agreed. But I don’t think we need a guy like Sheets. Skip Sheets, sign a Dusch-type, Wang or figure out a lower-cost option that can eat innings and keep you in games. They’re not great pitchers, but I think they offer a better cost/benefit with our roster construction.
/rambling
You know what I adamantly dislike? Watching I movie I remember loving as a child or young adult and then renting it later in life only to realize how much my taste sucked.
On the other hand, Terminator 2 is still the shit.
On the other hand, Terminator 2 is still the shit.
/Captain Obvious’d
What movie did you watch that sucked?
You’re going to laugh but it was the tv (NBC?) miniseries of The Odyssey. I was enraptured by it as a kid but damn is it cheesy as all hell.
It was worse because I hyped it up and had to suck up all the mockery of the friend I watched it with recently.
Oof.
I love The Odyssey so I hope one day, someone makes a good film version of it, along with The Iliad.
What, you didn’t love the abridged Iliad with Brad Pitt and Orlando Bloom?
http://phlyingpucks.com/files/.....epalm2.jpg
Excellent use of “enraptured” by the way.
Or how about the opposite. When you watch a movie that you loved as a kid realize that you really had no idea what was going on and didn’t understand any of it. This always happens to me. I loved Back to the Future when i was 7 but I now realize that I didn’t understand anything.
That’s how I felt about Hot Secretary Sluts. Looking back on it, boy, the acting just isn’t convincing. And the plot? Sooo contrived!
Sooo contrived!
Kinda like that comment?
BOOM!
I never type like that! Hah! Joke’s on you! There are many layers to the onion.
More layers than the Michelin girl?
Where the rubber meets the road, my friend.
Oh, don’t get me started. I could name a bunch.
You know what I’m adamantiumly in favor of?
Retractable metal claws.
After the Royals signed Jason Kendall for two years, the Failblog upgraded its servers. #jasonkendallfacts
I think that Kennedy’s numbers are not an average probability weighted value. There is a fair chance that he is a bust. His walks were high for a top prospect in the minors and were very high in his limited experience in the majors.
his limited experience in the majors.
There you go. 59.2 innings. There’s no way we can get a real handle on what he’s gonna be after 59.2 innings.
Like calling Tex a bust because he sucked in April.
He was, and is a bust. He couldn’t even hit 40 homeruns. Betemit could have done that, waste of money.
Knicks creeping toward .500
Nice to see a clear proof of how much we overpaid for granderson. I don’t agree with any of their actual values but they seem reasonable in relation to each other if not to an actual dollar value I would pay.
If the opportunity presented itself would you trade AJ in a multi team deal that netted Roy for Philly and Lee for us? – 4th team would get AJ.
I prefer Lee and like the idea of directing all of the good pitchers away for the AL east.
It doesn’t make sense to me to calculate Granderson’s value based on 5.0 WAR in 2012 and a decline of his option.
If his option is declined it will be because he performed much below these projections, maybe under 3.0 in 2012. Of course I understand that you’re just fooling around here, but even so there should be some internal consistency.