Balancing offense and defense
ByIn 2008 the Seattle Mariners lost 101 games. They had just two hitters who cleared a .330 OBP, and just one pitcher who made 20 starts with an ERA below 4.69. The team was a shambles and ownership knew it, firing GM Bill Bavasi mid-season. Yet in 2009, after GM Jack Zduriencik’s first off-season, the team added 24 wins to its ledger. This time they had just four players who cleared an OBP of .330. So how did the Mariners do so well?
Anyone paying attention knows the story. Instead of looking for highly regarded offensive players, Zduriencik and his staff sought the best defensive players. Baseball games are won, after all, by outscoring your opponents, and a team can accomplish this by either adding runs on their side or subtracting runs from their opponent’s side. The Mariners chose the latter, and went from allowing the fourth most runs in the AL in 2008 to allowing the fewest, by 40 runs, in 2009.
Yet, not a whole ton changed in the Mariners rotation. They had many of the same pitchers pitching a similar number of innings as 2008. The big mutation came on the defensive side of the ball, where they assembled a top flight group of players who could turn batted balls into outs. This included an outfield featuring Franklin Gutierrez, baseball’s best center fielder last season, and Ichiro, plus Endy Chavez in the first half and Ryan Langerhans in the second, both above average defenders. Their infield defense went from good to better as well, as they replaced the weakest link, Yuniesky Betancourt.
It seems that other teams have caught on, adding more defensive-minded players this off-season. The Red Sox let Jason Bay walk so they could sign the cheaper and defensively superior Mike Cameron, and then picked up Adrian Beltre to man third. The Yankees let Johnny Damon walk in favor of giving playing time to Brett Gardner and Randy Winn, inferior offensive players but far better at running down fly balls. Yet the Yankees hold an advantage over both the Mariners and the Red Sox: they still have a powerful offensive core.
The Mariners, as we know, still do not have a terribly powerful offense. They might have improved, though losing Russ Branyan’s production certainly hurts a bit. The Red Sox have a far better offensive team, but their core players do not match those of the Yankees. Martinez and Youkilis compose a solid 3-4 combo, but they’re no Teixeira-Rodriguez. Dustin Pedroia is a very good leadoff hitter, but he’s no Derek Jeter — and the gap extends even further if Ellsbury mans the leadoff spot. So while the Red Sox might prevent a few more runs, the Yankees figure to score quite a few more.
This I like, because it represents a balanced approach. The Yankees can afford to go defense in the outfield, particularly left field, because they already have a strong core of offensive players. The Red Sox chose to go defense in the outfield as well, but they will do it to the peril of their offense. Make no mistake, however: the Red Sox will do very well next season, despite what some pot-stirrer says. But I like the Yankees chances better. They’ve minded the defense, but only because they already possess a monstrous 3-4 combo and an exemplary leadoff hitter. The Red Sox, defensively savvy as they may be, just don’t have that core.
That Borges article is simply amazing.
It’s no “El Aleph”
/nerd
My head hurts from reading it.
Ranting about sabermetrics in a column on baseball: regional reporter’s salary.
Declaring your hatred of all things “moneyball” and how few pennants the A’s have won: possible seat next to Kruk on “Baseball Tonight.”
Including two hitting stats among your list of “bizarre” fielding metrics because you have no clue about what you are talking about: priceless.
hahaha +1
I’ve yet to see a columnist so deftly move from a point of stupidity to unfathomable retardation (and I hate tossing that word around).
If he were batting, he’d put up a line of .000/.000/.000 with 0 home runs and -4 RBIs. His UZR would be Dunn-ian. On the plus, he inspires some confidence that one day I too could say something incomprehensibly dull and have it published in a major source of “legitimate” media.
I’d like to announce that I’ve just sent an article to Kalamazoo Gazette on why using any stats besides batting average, rbis, and wins are part of a communist plot to impose death panels on the game’s heroic senior citizens like Johnny Damon.
Hah. I’d take it one step further. This will be send to the Paducah Sun of Paducah County, Kentucky.
Advanced statistics, or “sabermetrics,” are not actually measurements to determine the value of real events within the course of Major League Baseball games—they are tools of the Federal government to determine the value of OUR LIVES, so those producing less than 3.0 WAR per year will be sent to “work camps,” where they can “work” in failing industries artificially propped up by the ‘big guberment’ plutocrats.
These tests in MLB are merely a prelude to the real dangers—Osama Obama is ‘gon take all the citizens with 3.0+ WARs and genetically alter artificial beings into elite forces of ALCU lawyers that are MUSLIM. Muslim, I said!
That’s right Paducah, Obama and The Fed is not only redistributing wealth and socially engineering society, he’s genetically altering us to convert to Islam! HE MUST BE STOPPED!
What’s the WAR cutoff for the death panels?
Pick an arbitrary number. It’s Paducah; I’d be surprised if they could count.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....re=related (Semi SFW)
And do you know what you get when you combine Paducah, Obama, Cashman, and The Fed???
“Ha! Ha! Cheap obfuscated madman!”
JMK is right!!! WAKE UP SHEEPLE!!! Cashman’s so-called “budget” is just the first part of the communist takeover!!!
WAR IS COMING!!! WAR IS COMING!!!
Sincerely,
Bloggers for American Team Sports: Honor, Integrity, Tradition, Intagibles, Normal Statistics, And No Eggheads
If an array of new fielding metrics you need a Ph.D. to understand are to be believed,
i refused to read on after this
I didn’t read a single word once I saw who wrote it.
similar to tom verducci saying he doesnt like UZR because you cant do it at home with a pen and paper like AVG and stuff
The Yanks defense, while inferior to the Sox and M’s, isn’t too shabby as well. Tex is good, Cano can be good, Jeter hopefully replicates (or at least stays average to above average) his 09, and A-Rod should improve a bit as he’s gets further from his surgery. In the outfield, Swish is average, Granderson should be pretty good, and Grandy/Winn can be elite. Our bench players in Cervelli and Pena, and our DH Nick Johnson are pretty great on defense too. And we have a monstrous defense.
Like TSJC always says, I’m VERY aroused.
*And we have a monstrous offense
I’d be very curious to see how Beltre does offensively- he is miles above ARod defensively and should take a huge leap offensively away from SafeCo. Tex is overrated defensively.
Ron Borges is as bad as it gets. On top of it all he’s a plagarist too.
As the days dwindle toward the start of another spring of hope, let’s pray that’s no longer the case, because if all this talk of OBP, OPS, UZR, DRS and PMR was really only about ATM that’s going to end up BAD for US.
Ay yay yay. Talk about fail.
Im surpirsd he didn’t write it out as B.A.D
You forgot the ever important P.M.S.!
Lupica is up there too
Words cannot explain how much I hate Mike Lupica.
Words, pictures, symbols, you name it. Nothing can describe how most of the sane Yanks fans hate Lupica.
What did he plagiarize?
Nevermind, I found it.
I used http://www.google.com/
What is this “google” that you speak of?
Source: the internet
Wow, after reading his wiki page this guy is clearly a Class A dickweed.
A football column a few years back. That’s why he’s writing for the Boston Herald, the Boston Globe fired him.
Eh, journalistic integrity isn’t high on the list of qualities for Boston-area writers. Neither is accuracy. But if you can construct a sentence and don’t like the Yankees, boom, you’re hired.
But if you
can construct a sentence anddon’t like the Yankees, boom, you’re hired.Fixed.
Borges doesn’t like anyone.
Thinly veiled reference to a certain someone?
Jeez, Mr. Borges really loves hyperbole.
In the mid 2000’s we were offense heavy with little pitching and very little defense. It was good enough to powerhouse into the playoffs…but certainly not good enough to go head to head when matching the best of the best up against one another in a series.
During that same span teams like the Twins and Athletics had good pitching and defense…with very mediocre offense. They too found themselves in the playoffs a few times…some more than others…and all depending on the play of the other clubs in their league.
If you look at the past WS Champions…you’ll see they had a good balance of both. The 2004 Red Sox were one year off of their offensive record setting season…had 2 aces and decent defense. While the 07′ team had much better defense, a similar potent offense, and arguably better pitching than the 04 team. The 2009 Yankees had great pitching, great offense, and mediocre defense.
The 2010 Yankees, on paper, seem to have the perfect balance. They seem to keep the great offense…seem to have gotten even better in the pitching area…and seem to have gotten much much better in the defensive category.
Offense + Defense = 28
Props to this poster:
“a lot of people can glove but driving in runs is what separates the men from the boys”
Okay. Now we have a whole day to see if anyone can top that one for sheer stupidity.
Wait, you just did!
These sportswriters are just guys that went to journalism school, so they can supposedly write well. Why does their opinion mean anything? Before the internet, the arbiters of opinion were sportswriters, whether or not what they wrote was accurate or logical. Borges obviously didn’t spend any time to investigate what he’s writing about, and yet he’s paid to write uninformed garbage. That is why newspapers are failing.
Consider the source:
On a day when they could have had impact players David Terrell or Koren Robinson or the second-best tackle in the draft in Kenyatta Walker, they took Georgia defensive tackle Richard Seymour, who had 1 sacks last season in the pass-happy SEC and is too tall to play tackle at 6-6 and too slow to play defensive end. This genius move was followed by trading out of a spot where they could have gotten the last decent receiver in Robert Ferguson and settled for tackle Matt Light, who will not help any time soon. – Ron Borges, MSNBC after 2001 Draft.
WOW. BorgesFAIL
OMG not David Terrell!?!?!?!?!, who honestly had bust written all over him
He got every single person in that article wrong. Light and Seymour started, as rookies, and won the Super Bowl and have been to several Pro Bowls (though that doesn’t carry too much weight). The rest of them were total busts. It’s not like he went 2-6 or something, he was literally 0-6. Wow.
While that was pretty bad, you can pretty much do that with every NFL draft.
Yes, but we was being specific to two picks, and was dead wrong on the whole thing. It’s certainly a pattern with him. It only got worse after this too, as he thought Belichick screwed up the Brady-Bledsoe decision, and as recently as a few years ago still managed to complain about it.
I haven’t bought some of these defensive metrics completely. Especially UZR which apparently takes a couple of years to get an accurate read on a player. That is also why I’m not convinced that moving Gardy to center is such an obvious move. I do think getting younger and improving the defense go hand in hand. They needed to get a little younger and not commit to anything long term, which they did.
I really don’t buy these market adjustment for defense. The Red Sox can say what they want to say. But to me, left field in Fenway is not a massive defensive concern. I know they technically improved center and left by adding Cameron. However, it still means they have Ellsbury playing left for 81 games in Fenway which really means what? If they cared so much about defense they would have re-signed Alex Gonzalez rather than sign Scutaro. Theo is on a budget which is fine but he didnt want to spend premium dollars on any of the available free agents so he could have a chance to go after Mauer next year. Now he has the rats in the media following his tune that he found some kind of premium value in Beltre and Cameron. The Red Sox will be a good team just because they have Lester, Beckett, Lackey and Bucholtz. Thats a great rotation.
But to me, left field in Fenway is not a massive defensive concern.
Agreed the issue is CF is, Cameron is one of the better defensive CF out there, Ellsbury isn’t. Probably ideally the Sox would have let Ellsbury go as a FA and have Bay be the cost controlled younger player, but they couldn’t.
However, it still means they have Ellsbury playing left for 81 games in Fenway which really means what?
Not really sure what you’re getting at?
If they cared so much about defense they would have re-signed Alex Gonzalez rather than sign Scutaro.
Its a trade-off, Scutaro has been an average or better defensive SS the past few years (true nothing near AG) and the Sox are singing him on what he hit last year & hoping he repeats.
My point regarding Ellsbury is just reiterating what you agreed with above. They improved in center field but I really don’t buy the value of the improvement of Ellsbury over Bay in left field when half the games are played in Fenway.
I understand why they Scutaro, it was a little tongue in cheek comment. I’m not saying they should have kept Gonzalez over signing Scutaro, I was just point out that they do pay some attention to offense, contrary to what Theo would tell you.
But even in Fenway, Ellsbury>>>>Bay. And when they travel, it makes a huge difference in 50% of their games. Think about the difference between Bay and Ellsbury chasing down fly balls at YSIII.
My point isnt that Ellsbury isnt better than Bay, I am just saying that how valuable is that if 81 games are played in Fenway. And that isnt even getting to the fact that Bay is a far better offensive player. I don’t know how that isn’t a net loss in the end. I think the truth is that Theo wanted Adrian Gonz and was going to use Ellsbury as a piece but it didnt work out. We all see the plethora of serviceable left fielders on the free agent market right now. Plus the Red Sox do have some young premium outfielders on the horizon. That is why I don’t really buy this defensive market adjustment.
81 games is half the season, so the 81 games outside of Fenway they play are huge. They were below .500 on the road last year, and despite Fenway being a hitters park, their team ERA was significantly better at home than on the road. There could be a HUGE correlation between that and defense.
I can agree with that. But how much of that correlation stems from leftfield? I just looked at the numbers. It may be true that their defense cost them on the road. But just taking something rudimentary like Earned runs. On the road 4.6% of the runs scored against them were unearned, while 6.8% of the runs scored against them at home were unearned. Now I know that doesn’t account for balls that they should have gotten to. And I’m not saying that improving the defense isn’t a wise move. HOWEVER, and getting back to what I originally said. I think its a hard argument to make that Jacoby Ellsbury’s defense in left field will somehow account for more wins on the road. And again that isnt even getting to the .150 point disparity in OPS between Bay and Ellsbury. Or the fact that overall Bay had a 3.5 WAR and Ellsbury was at 1.9 and he was playing centerfield last year.
Well Scutaro can actually hit and play some defense. Gonzales can play better D but not enough to make up for the fact he’s a non factor with the bat.
Except in the 2003 WS. I still hate the bastard for that.
If they cared so much about defense they would have re-signed Alex Gonzalez rather than sign Scutaro.
That was a little bizarre…but if you look at it closely…I think they did the whole “defense and pitching” thing AFTER they realized they weren’t going to re-sign Bay or sign any of the other offensive producers for anything in their budget. My evidence is that Scutaro was one of their first signings…before Bay told them he wasn’t going to both with them…and once they figured that out…they put the money into Lackey…and decided on the defense theme from there.
Had they thought about defense right off the bat, they would have more than likely looked to sign Alex Gonzalez instead of Scutaro.
2010:
john lackey and josh beckett present: “The Dueling Elbow Injuries”
I think it starts off like this:
Dr. Andrews went up to Boston he was lookin for some elbows to heal…..
Nice one from “The Devil Went Down To Georgia” One good turn deserves another. To Henry and Epstein: “I told you once you Son Of A Bitch, the Yankees, are the best that’s ever been”
Theo was in a bind cause he was way behind, he was willin’ to make a deal.
After the second half sweep, Henry knew his team was beat, and he laid that title down at Hal’s feet.
and he played homer in the park that babe ruth built(2.5),
red socks blow; they have no chance
The Alex Gonzalez signing occurred in a different era.
/you know the rest
IETC.
Another great comment:
Up until this morning I have only heard of what a hack Ron Borges was. Today it’s confirmed.
This one tickled me for some reason-
Ron watches sports thru his glass eye.
There is no question that defense is very important. But the idea that it is paramount is just plain nuts. Left Field at Fenway was a historically significant position (Williams, Yaz, Rice & Ramirez), and the idea of facing Ellsbury or his replacement Cameron, instead of those kind of hitters (Or Bay), is very appealing from a Yankee fan’s perspective. I don’t care how good the defense of Ellsbury, Cameron & Drew are, it does not equal the pop gun offense those guys bring to the table.
All 4 of those guys are Hall of Famers. So yeah, it’s a step down offensively from 4 Hall of Famers. Not shocking. I’m sure the 2009 Red Sox considered it appealing that Melky Cabrera was playing CF, not Dimaggio, Mantle or Bernie. Not really comparing apples to apples.
I would agree with you except the Yankee INFIELD may be as good as any assembled in the history of the game. The 32 Yankees (With Gehrig, Lazarri & Sewell), and the 76 Reds (Perez, Morgan & Rose) are the leaders in the clubhouse. You have two Cooperstown bound players (Jeter & Rodriguez), another on the way (Teixeira), and Cano’s early numbers have a lot of promise.
But Ellsbury, Cameron and Drew are all above average offensive players, while providing stellar defense. They also have well above average offense at 1b, 2b, and C. Scutaro was well above average last year as SS, and Beltre is capable of it as well. Their only defensive weakness is behind the plate, so if you can throw 7 fielders out there who are all above average, as well the majority of them being strong hitters as well, that’s a damn good team.
I have discussed Cameron’s offense constantly (So that is old hat), Drew is 24/68/.269 (NOT above average), Beltre is nothing, Veritek is lame, Scutaro was 12/60 (I will concede 100 Runs scored (But he is not close to Jeter-level production)). The starting pitching is excellent, but that offense is the worst in the division.
Using those stats, you sound like Borges.
http://www.buuurn.com/
bro i’m sorry, but your arguments die quickly when you cite RBIs and batting average. When you can ops like drew can and play one of the best RFs in baseball, you’re a very valuable player, regardless of your batting average. Drew is a top 5 all-around RF in the game, IMO.
And beltre was nothing last year, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be nothing next year in fenway. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he’s a solid #7. Scutaro’s calling card is that he is a consistently somewhat above average hitter who consistently plays solid-good defense at SS, which makes him a valuable player.
This is article is amazing. I dont know which is more funnier, him not believing that stats like ops, obp% & UZR are vital or christian fundametalist believing it took 7 days for the earth to be created. Guys, this is the 21st Century im just stating.
This article was great. I’m not sure if there has ever been a better paragraph than this:
A year ago, the Sox won 95 games despite apparently stumbling around in the field like a half-drunken softball team in a Wednesday night league. Somehow they miraculously finished only eight games behind the Yankees without being able to catch a cold standing naked in the Alaskan wilderness. Fortunately, those Sox have been replaced by guys whose gloves are more valuable than Michael Jackson’s.
Wow
Reductio ad absurdum much?
That dude is a total chump.
I bet he Googled all of those analogies and simply adapted them to his article too
2009 Red Sox defense: Entire right side (where the OF is much bigger, anyway) is pretty much elite defensively, generally had good defense as SS, and had crappy defense from CF, LF, C, and 3B. Overall, the sox have upgraded defensively at CF, LF, and 3B, downgraded offensively at LF, arguably upgraded offensively at CF, and likely retained roughly the same production from 3B, if not better (beltre at fenway could be pretty solid offensively), and also improved their offense from SS, while potentially improving their defense there too. Also, a full season of V-Mart is an offensive upgrade from a half season of him and half of V-Tek. Translation: this guy is an idiot. The sox are a good team that got better this offseason. Are they going to be as good as the yankees in 2010? IMO, probably not. But not because they’ve had a shitty offseason, or even that the yanks have necessarily had a better one. The yanks just happen to have a pretty dynamite all-around team right now, and the sox are not going to cripple themselves financially to try to beat the yanks on paper when it likely isn’t possible.
/preaching to the choir’d
Everything has to be viewed in team-specific contexts. If you’re the yankees, and you’ve got a very very good offense and a very very good rotation, you don’t need dynamite defense. Anything above slightly below average defense would allow this team to win 95+ games. But when you look at the whole team, you could (potentially) get the following defensive lineup most days
Bad: (1) posada
Average-ish: (4) Jeter, Cano, A-Rod, Swish
Good: (2) Granderson, Tex
Elite: (1) Gardner
Overall, the team should wind up a bit above average defensively, and that’s arguably the weakest area of this team (vs. offense, rotation, and bullpen).
The A’s did win division titles in 2000, 2002, 2003 and 2006, but what they have actually won during the Moneyball era is nothing.
this confuses me…. he states what they won, and then says they won nothing, all in the same sentence
those 4 division titles DID come in the moneyball era, right? what am i missing?
I guess he’s referring to Championships, which is funny because Moneyball addresses that.
They must have left that out of the cliff notes version.
In “Between the Numbers” by the BP guys, there’s a chapter entitled: “Why Billy Beane’s Shit Doesn’t Work in the Playoffs.”
Is it because Jeremy Giambi can’t slide?
If the Yankees had that much success, I wouldn’t have to cancel my season tickets.
/Bronx Teacher’d
Hahahaha +1
what bugs me about this stuff is that billy beane, while a fairly studly GM, was only the “only” moneyball guy for a couple years, and that was like 20 years ago, before others started catching on. By the “moneyball era”, most teams had put a lot of, if not all of, the Moneyball theories into practice, thus hugely reducing the competitive advantage it gave billy beane when it was his methodology and his alone. Now, it is not looking at “moneyball teams” that will show you anything, it is looking at the few remaining holdouts – the Reds, Pirates, and Royals come to mind as anti-sabermetrics clubs. And look at how well they’ve done
what am i missing?
Division titles mean nothing. Real teams win the Wild Card.
Your problem is that you’re making the assumption that Borges had a logical, legitimate, and coherent point to make. You’re never going to find something that doesn’t exist.
This article just reiterates the idea for me that the only way new ideas take hold is when the people clinging to the old ideas die. We’ve got a long way to go…
-JM
the only way new ideas take hold is when the people clinging to the old ideas die. We’ve got a long way to go…
Not if we can get those death panels going…
/http://riveraveblues.com/2010/01/balancing-offense-and-defense-23156/#comment-762601
The funny thing is, the whole Moneyball theory wasn’t the reason they won the division titles so often. Hudson, Mulder and Zito are. Actually, they had a good strategy to work in the postseason with three outstanding pitchers but they never really got all three of them hot at the same time and could never win against really good pitching
It wasn’t just OBP, it was finding market inefficiencies and undervalued players, and Beane got some good seasons from cheap players like Chad Bradford.
Precisely. It’s not as though Beane was going out and getting the best available OBP players. He was getting guys who were massively undervalued because OBP was their best tool, which was undervalued in the market. Do you think that he would have willingly replaced Jason Giambi with Scott Hatteberg? I mean, I’m no Giambi fan, but I think we can all agree which of those two players was better, if you ignore cost. It’s precisely cost, though, that was the key to Beane’s strategy.
-JM
So what has general manager Theo Epstein wrought?
Beats me, which is unimportant.
Translated: Although you may be worried about both my job security and my mental capacities after reading this article, please do not be concerned. In the broad scheme of things, my lack of comprehension about which I write makes very little difference. While you may object that I have been given a public forum for my views and therefore have a responsibility to the readers of the Boston Herald to take my job seriously, that is because you are a nerd and, ipso facto, do not really understand the true nature of baseball.
Anybody else kind of impressed at this man’s remarkable capacoty for blocking out relevant information? It’s a talent.
Wow. That Borges article was all kinds of FAIL. I mean Martha Coakley bad. Articles like that make me miss the days of Ken Tremendous and Fire Joe Morgan. Every paragraph brought the stupid with authority.
He also missed the whole point of the book. Moneyball was about taking advantage of market inefficiencies. Namely, the fact that certain players were undervalued because the league did not give enough credence to the ability to get on base. When people started to wise up to its importance, guess what? The market inefficiency that Beane took advantage no longer existed. Guys who could get on base started to get paid and Beane couldn’t afford them anymore. I mean its that simple.
Seattle then found the next market inefficiency, which was defense. But once the market wises up to the importance of defense (and judging by Theo’s actions, it has), then that to will no longer be an inefficiency.
The idiocy in the article was one thing, but the unbelievably snarky and dismissive tone he took towards those who believe in rational thinking was even worse. He did everything but toss in the “mother’s basement” line.
The saddest thing though is that the Sox have a smart GM and Borges is only writing stupid columns instead of making stupid trades. If only Borges and Theo could switch jobs. I would be ecstatic.
The Yanks are not the Mariners. Winn would make a good backup.
…Which is what Winn is.
[...] inefficiencies can be an important ingredient for success. This offseason there has been some talk that the new market inefficiency is defense as some teams, most notably the Red Sox seem to be more accurately measuring defense and trying to [...]