Learning from Dellin Betances
ByFour years ago, I urged the Yankees to take a tall, hard-throwing local kid from Brooklyn named Dellin Betances with their first pick of the 2006 draft. Proving again that they’re smarter than me, the Yanks did in fact take Betances, but not until the 8th round. Despite all his promise, Betances hasn’t been able to stay healthy and has yet to make it out of A-ball in three-plus professional seasons.
Moshe at the brand spankin’ new TYU says that we need to learn a lesson from Betances, that these kid pitchers in the minors are just prospects and far from sure things. Arodys Vizcaino has all the potential in the world, but he’s so young and far away that he would have just graduated high school last spring. Moving him as the centerpiece of a package for a pitcher of Javy Vazquez‘s quality shouldn’t be an issue.
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Many of us forget how un-sure these young “sure” prospects are. I was disappointed to lose IPK but overall I think Cashman had another great hot stove season.
but of course if you have Casey Kelly, you can’t move him for anything less than Cliff Lee + King Felix
Casey Kelly is a very good prospect. What Kelly lacks in plus velocity he makes up for with command. He’s over-hyped b/c i don’t think a pitcher without overpowering stuff can be projected as a front-of-the-rotation starter. So the RS hype machine has created this backlash, but Kelly is still a pitching prospect we’d all love to have.
If Kelly were a Yankee, he’d be #2 in this farm.
Bullshit. Right now he is no better than Manny Banuelos. But because he’s taller and the son of an ex-major leaguer, and because he is a failed shortstop, he has all this ridiculous hype.
Pedigree and measurables are taken into account by pro scouts. Kelly’s athleticism is important. Its why we believe Brackman can make adjustments to his mechanics, and someone like Betances can’t … or hasn’t. Athleticism is a big reason why Kelly’s a very good prospect.
I’m not in the business of defending RS prospects, but Kelly’s 09 was better than Man-Ban. And that’s in no way shitting on Man-Ban’s 09.
How is a 3.09 in half a season of Low A better than 2.67 in a full season of Low A? Higher K/9 vs. a slightly higher BA, comparable K/BB? Kelly probably starts the year in the SAL, while ManBan is at Trenton, and oh yeah he’s sixteen months younger. Nothing is taking away from Kelly’s pitching season, which was impressive, but ManBan was at least as good, probably better.
No. I’ll give Kelly his props. Last year he did a half season in Low A and a half a season in Advanced A. The Red Sox say that he will get a shot at starting this season (2010) at Double AA. Probably pushing him a bit too much, but who gives a shit.
Also, for the record, Manny is a year and a half younger than Kelly.
Just sayin.
My mistake, misread the stat sheet. At the same time though, they have no reason to rush him. They have a very talented rotation, even if Beckett leaves after the season they’re still looking at Lackey and Lester locked up long term, the man the myth the Buchholz cost-controlled for awhile, and Dice-K for a couple more years. Throw in indulging his shortstop fantasy.
I am not saying he isn’t good, I am just saying that he is one of the those A ball prospects that everyone is drooling over even though anything could still happen to him.
A Sox prospect without overpowering stuff and strong command. Sounds like Brian Rose and Jeff Suppan back in the day. They had the absolute shit hyped out of them, especially Rose. Of course with Rose it worked, as they were able to ship him out in the Pedro deal. As much as Kelley is “untouchable”, don’t be shocked if it’s just a ploy to boost his trade value.
Absolutely. if the RS could flip him as the lead in a package of prospects for Felix Hernandez, they’d do it in a heartbeat. Kelly’s prospect star will definitely be tested by starting off in AA Portland.
All of these kids are lottery tickets but remember that the lottery hits too. Look at CC. He was a lottery ticket that paid off.
This wasn’t up when I wrote my comment. Great minds think alike.
Difference here being: Sabathia was drafted out of HS and flew through the minors. Maybe Vizcaino takes off next year and makes this look dumb, but it’d bet against it.
CC was a different kind of lottery ticket, he was considered one of the best if not the best high school pitchers that year and was a first round pick. Guys like him work out a lot more often than a guy like Betances who was always considered a high risk high reward pitcher.
IFA pitchers are different beasts all together since they sign when they’re 16. It’s hard to compare them to guys in the draft.
Trading Vizcaino for Vazquez is like selling your $5 lottery ticket for $10. Sure it could bite you on the ass to varying degrees, but it’s still the smart thing to do.
Very true.
In this particular trade, you’re also getting back a lottery ticket though, with Vasquez likely a type A. You either bring back a very good pitcher on a 1 year deal, or get 2 picks.
I would like the Yanks to use their draft on getting high upside pitchers and looking internationally for high end hitters.
…that’s exactly what they’ve been doing for the past 5 years…
Thx RAB for bringing this topic up. Theres nothing I like doing more than pretending I’m the Yankee GM.
This was the one move Cash made in a long time that I didn’t like (although I would prefer one year of matsui over nick johnson for basically same price). I understand what everyone is saying that you can’t count on these young high ceiling procpects for anything. Here’s my argument tho:
What is the hardest thing to get in baseball, whether thru trade or FA? A top flight, YOUNG, #1 starter. We can buy/trade for top position players all day long, many thru salary dump, so having less hitting prospects in our minors hasn’t bothered me a bit. Although that has changed a bit last two years. For the most part Cash has done the right thing and invested in more high ceiling starting pitchers and for good reason. If getting a young #1 is the hardest thing to find, why trade a guy in your organization with #1 potential for one year of Javy Vasquez? There’s still a good possibility we don’t offer him arb and get any picks so you can’t make that argument. I could care less about Dunn and Melky, but trading Viz is a mistake in my book. Sure, he could be Betances, but he could also be Pedro and we only have a couple guys in the minors that have that potential.
Why wouldn’t they offer him arb? They’d either get 2 picks or get back a very good pitcher on a 1 year deal.
Because he’ll make $17 million in arbitration?
And let’s see him make it work in NY (and YS3) before we get crazy. Wasn’t too hot the first time.
He did make it work in NY before being hurt, and pitching through it. Go back and look at his 1st half.
A raise of $5.5 million in arbitration probably won’t happen. If anything he’ll make 13 or 14 million. His track record in the NL alone means an NL team will take a shot if he has a healthy 200 IP, but sub par season.
And if he does get a $5.5 million raise in arb. that means he had a ridiculously good year anyway, and would easily be worth $17 million for 1 year.
Or, more likely that another team will give him a 3 year deal.
What if he has a so-so year? Will the Yankees want him at $13-$14m? And then the year after? Same story.
The only way they offer Arb is:
1) If they want him at $13.5
2) He has an outstanding year, and turns down Arb, thinking he’s work a big contract (which he won’t be at his age and history).
QUESTION: If he has a 4.4 ERA this year, you guys want to invest $13m in him next year, when Lee can be had for $20?
He might not be worth a “big” contract, but if he’s healthy he’d get multiple offers with multiple guaranteed years, even after a middling year in the AL.
So he’d go take them, because at his age, guaranteed money talks. He’ll definitely get offers at 2/25, easy. And he’d take that over a one-year deal at the higher AAV he’d get in arby.
So I think it’s a no-brainer that you offer him arbitration. You can always ship him off, like the Braves did with Soriano.
How many years for Lee? I’d love to have Vasquez for 1/$13.5. And if that’s what happened, he’d certainly be a tradeable commodity, so you could conceivably trade him and sign Lee if that’s what you wanted.
$17m in arbitration isn’t at all unreasonable. He’d throw out Burnett & Lackey’s contracts as comparables, which is probably the best there is in recent contracts. Lowe too – he got a little less per year, but Vazquez could easily argue he’s better than Lowe.
But that’s not how arbitration works. Cole Hamels could definitely have argued he’s better than Barry Zito coming off a WS MVP, but didn’t get Zito’s contract.
No, that’s exactly how arbitration works. Read the rules.
Players justify their values by comparing themselves to other players *with similar service time* and then arguing why they are worth similar/more/less.
Players are classified as Arb 1, Arb 2, Arb 3+ (remember, super two players get 4 arbs), or Free Agent.
Vazquez would compare himself to other free agent pitchers.
Hamels had to compare himself against other Arb 1 pitchers. He had to use things like Wang’s $4m Arb 1 salary as comparisons, which is how he ended up at $4.35m.
Throwing out comparables _is_ how arbitration works, but service time is a big component that the arbiter takes into account when he decides if your submitted $ amount makes sense.
Hence, Javy could use Burnett and guys like that, while Lincecum can’t.
And the arbiters do have enough sense to throw out outliers like Zito.
And again, if Javy, after 2010 can make an argument that he deserves $17 million, he’s not getting to arbitration, someone would be signing him long term.
But the amount of the increase is also taken into account in the arbitration process, so $17 mil, while possible, is highly unlikely.
Phil or Joba could hypothetically have the year that Guidry had in ’78 and they would get a nice raise via arb, but no way would they compensated as the best pitcher in the league.
But the amount of the increase is also taken into account in the arbitration process, so $17 mil, while possible, is highly unlikely.
No, it’s not in any way part of the process.
There are maximum decrease rules, but they only apply to pre-free agency players.
Phil or Joba could hypothetically have the year that Guidry had in ‘78 and they would get a nice raise via arb, but no way would they compensated as the best pitcher in the league.
They’d have to compare themselves to similar service time players – arb 1 guys. That’s why the Yankees went to arbitration with Wang over $600k. If these guys have a great year and go to arb, they have to use Wang’s $4m as a comparison. If the Yankees have caved and gave Wang what he wanted, that would’ve just tacked on another $600k to what Hughes and Joba would be asking for.
Is not Tim Lincecum an Arb 1 guy? Doesn’t that mean that if Joba or Hughes have great years this year that they can point to the inevitable $10-12MM that Timmy is going to get as examples of what they ought to get, and thus get, in all likelihood, $6-8MM rather than $4MM based on Wang’s deal? Obviously, this is only if they’re really good, but still.
I just don’t see a situation where Javy really takes arbitration and actually goes to the process. If he does accept, there’s no way Cashman doesn’t just work out a deal with him. But, if he’s really good, wouldn’t a team like Philadelphia or LA or someone want him? Even if we assume the teams that are letting the big fish pitchers go don’t want to sign a FA replacement (and in the case of Lee, I don’t know that that’s the case), there’s still plenty of market for a guy who’s a borderline #1 and a very above average #2. Sure, Javy will be 34 next year, but all he has to do is not ask for a Burnett-type deal and he’ll find work for sure. In fact, if his 2010 is good enough, he might even DESERVE a Burnett type deal.
I dunno, I’m just really not worried about Vazquez’s arbitration. Unless he’s god-awful, Cashman offers arbitration, Javy either turns it down to go elsewhere or accepts and works out a deal with the Yankees. Not really unhappy with either situation.
-JM
Is not Tim Lincecum an Arb 1 guy? Doesn’t that mean that if Joba or Hughes have great years this year that they can point to the inevitable $10-12MM that Timmy is going to get as examples of what they ought to get, and thus get, in all likelihood, $6-8MM rather than $4MM based on Wang’s deal? Obviously, this is only if they’re really good, but still.
Nah, neither of them can make a case that they’re remotely as good as Lincecum has been. Dude’s thrown 500 innings of cy young ball over the last two years. How could Joba or Hughes argue that they’re even 60% of that good, no matter WHAT they do this year?
This I agree with, unless he gets hurt.
Joba and Hughes can point to Lincecum’s award and ask for $6-8M their first time through arbitration, but they’ll lose the case.
Cashman has been extremely conservative when it comes to offering arbitration these past few years.
If he decides he just doesn’t want Vazquez back, he isn’t offering arbitration.
The market for pitchers is different than the market for 35 year old OF’s who don’t play defense and are coming off of bigger contracts. Look at Lackey and Burnett’s contracts. Look at the FA pitchers available next year, who will all get paid. They are tougher to find than an Abreu and Damon.
no. cashman didn’t offer arb to Damon because he would have ended up at least $8 million over his market prace, same for Abreu. It’s unlikely that Vazquez would end up higher than maybe $14, which would be about $2 million over his market price, unless he had such a crazy good year that he would easily be able to find a 3-year deal elsewhere, in which case he declines. In fact, the only way he is unlikely to decline is if he does so poorly that he’ll likely take a paycut in arbitration.
The arbitration process is designed to give you a market rate salary. If you walked in and asked for a salary $8m above market rate, the arbitrators wouldn’t take you at all seriously and would just give you what the team proposed, regardless of what they offered.
How are you defining Vazquez’s market price at $12m? And how are you coming to the $14m arbitration value?
To me, Burnett & Lackey are the best recent comps for him. He’s older, so he wouldn’t get a 5 year deal like them, but if we’re talking arbitration, we’re locked at 1 year so that’s irrelevant.
Pettitte signed for 1/$12m, and I think everyone would agree Vazquez should command more than Pettitte.
The problem is that the arbitration process would not have Abreu or Damon valued as low as they ended up being. There’s just no way that if the Yankees had offered Abreu arbitration that they would have gotten him for $6MM. He wasn’t even that bad in 2008, especially compared to his career norms. The “market value” for Abreu in 2008, however, was what the Angels signed him for. But the arbitration panel would not know that and they would have given him a $12-14MM salary for 2008 if the Yankees had offered and he’d accepted.
Damon’s an even clearer case, especially based on how it is turning out. Damon would have easily gotten $14MM given that he had a career year last year, and there’s no way he even sniffs that much this year, assuming he signs with anyone and doesn’t just retire in disgust (which I don’t think he will, but it is possible). The arbitration system gives players salaries based on how good they were AND how their production was valued before. It’s not like they go “well your WAR was this much and your OPS was this much, so we give you $XMM based on this formula.” If Barry Zito ever goes to Salary Arbitration and doesn’t suck the year before, he would be getting close to what his salary is.
-JM
On the Abreu case, the thing to remember is that Abreu didn’t get a crappy contract because that’s all he was worth. He got a crappy contract because he was holding out for a 3 year contract at similar dollars to what he made before, when no one was willing to give that He said that to the press several times, as recently as late January ’09, so this isn’t just speculation.
Abreu held out for an offer that was never going to come until every team that was willing to spend big money on an outfielder signed someone. At that point, he had to settle for whatever was left, which ended up being a very low offer from a team that already had plenty of outfielders.
The lesson of that story was not that Bobby Abreu was worth ~$6m in 2009, but that the last outfielder left on the market was only worth ~$6m.
The arbitrators would like have given Abreu about $10m, as that’s what all the other older outfielders got that winter. His arbitration case would’ve been in February, meaning everyone else would’ve signed and set the market.
You’re kinda right on Damon though – that case is very clear. He’d be getting a several million pay decrease in arbitration. The question is just how many million. He’d probably end up in the $10m area, which seems more than the Yankees want to pay.
The arbitration system gives players salaries based on how good they were AND how their production was valued before.
No, it doesn’t at all. Read the other explanations in this thread. How their production was valued before has *zero* to do with it.
It’s not like they go “well your WAR was this much and your OPS was this much, so we give you $XMM based on this formula.”
Nope, they don’t. But both sides go in to the case and present stats, then present stats of other similar players. They then say that guy is similar, and he made $X, so I’m worth $X +/- $Y.
If Barry Zito ever goes to Salary Arbitration and doesn’t suck the year before, he would be getting close to what his salary is.
Nope, not at all.
There’s a couple things. I think your figures have to be submitted earlier than that, and then the arbiter chooses between them. So I’m not sure the whole market would have played out before the numbers had to be written down. Also, I don’t think the arbiters are THAT responsive to changes in the market. I think they look over a longer period of time.
So Bobby would have submitted at least 16MM if not more. The Yanks COULD have submitted 10MM, but if the arbiter decided that was too low…he would have no choice but to give bobby what he asked for.
There’s a couple things. I think your figures have to be submitted earlier than that, and then the arbiter chooses between them. So I’m not sure the whole market would have played out before the numbers had to be written down.
Arbitration figures get submitted in Mid-January. It was January 18th last year when they were submitted, not sure for this year.
Adam Dunn hadn’t signed yet, but Ibanez, Burrell, and Bradley had. Dunn signed in early February, so he wouldn’t have signed before submitting numbers, but most likely would have before the actual hearing.
Also, I don’t think the arbiters are THAT responsive to changes in the market. I think they look over a longer period of time.
That is a little bit of a wild card. Free agents going to arbitration is very rare, and salaries declining in MLB is even more rare. So there isn’t too much of a track record here. But last year it wasn’t just an isolated contract or two, it was every similar outfielder, so arbitrators probably would have at least considered it.
So Bobby would have submitted at least 16MM if not more.
I think that much is clear, as he was publicly saying that’s what he was look for per year in a 3 year deal.
The Yanks COULD have submitted 10MM, but if the arbiter decided that was too low…he would have no choice but to give bobby what he asked for.
Not necessarily. The arbitrator is supposed to pick the number that is closer to the player’s value. With your numbers, the arbitrator decided Abreu was worth less than $13m, he’d have to award him the Yankees offer. If Abreu asked for more than $16m, that would just increase the odds of the Yankees offer getting picked.
The arbitrators would like have given Abreu about $10m, as that’s what all the other older outfielders got that winter.
That’s not necessarily true. The arbitrator doesn’t set the salary, he only decides which of the two figures submitted best represents the player’s value.
So if Abreu submitted $16 mil and the Yanks submitted $10 mil, it’s almost certain that the arbitrator would pick the $16 mil.
The only way the arbitrator would choose the $10 mil figure is if Abreu submitted something ridiculous, like $20+ mil.
So if Abreu submitted $16 mil and the Yanks submitted $10 mil, it’s almost certain that the arbitrator would pick the $16 mil.
Why would he? The market says otherwise.
The market may say otherwise, but Abreu made $15 mil in 08.
If there is an example on record where an arbitrator chose a 50% pay cut over a 7% raise, I can’t think of it.
Check that. 33% pay cut.
Math fail.
But who says there is even a marginal chance of him becoming a #1? Vizcaino is an undersized kid with a solid fastball (92-94 with some movement), and decent secondary pitches. At this point, he’s not much more projectable than Jose Ramirez, the only difference being that he’s compiled a full season’s worth of stats, but still, those are in A-ball. And you can certainly make the argument that the yankees offer him arb, because there is really no downside to doing so – you either get a very good pitcher on a $12 million, one-year deal or you get 2 draft picks, who could very well replace Viz within a year. It’s been said above, but it’s like selling a $5 lottery ticket for $10. It’s the right decision, regardless of what happens later.
Not even A-Ball, short season. Vizcaino’s a great prospect, with stuff as good as anyone in the Yanks’ system, but he definitely falls into the lottery ticket category.
“stuff as good as anyone in the system”
why do i keep hearing this? fastball 92-94 with some movement, solid change, solid curve. That’s good, but brackman, betances, and even the aforementioned Jose Ramirez have better stuff. Viz’s star is so high right now because he has good all around stuff but also demonstrated good control (according to his k/BB and BB/9 rates, anyway) this year. But remember, that was short season ball. there’s no guarantee at all that he wasn’t getting by on stuff but just throwing down the middle because his stuff in SS ball is like 95th percentile, whereas it’d be like 60th in MLB
Three plus pitches, a low to mid-90′s FB that could gain velo, and control at only 18 years old. I’m fine with the deal, but let’s not pretend that Vizcaino was at the top of our pitching prospect heap for no good reason.
no i agree, he was a very legit prospect. but still, he’s not Joba circa 2007 yet. People are calling him a future #1, the next pedro, and stuff like that. His ceiling may be somewhat higher than Javier Vazquez, but honestly, not by much. And at this point, it’s still a long shot that he reaches that point. And that’s not a knock on Arodys, it’s just a simple fact – 19 year olds with good stuff and control off of excellent years in short season ball are nice, but pretty much the only way you don’t trade them for the legit MLB-proven, innings eating, relatively cheap #2 is if they’ve got 100 mph+ arms with good secondary pitches and put up something like a 1.5 BB/9 to go along with a K/9 over 10. It’s not a matter of undervaluing (or overvaluing) arodys. It’s a matter of undervaluing Javier Vazquez.
Yea, sorry… the chances of Vizciano of becoming one of the best pitcher in the last 30 years is slim and none. Pedro’s peak was insane….
Wouldn’t it be better to call this “learning from Alan Horne”? Betances is still a major prospect, regardless of what john sickels says. He has honed in his control before, there’s no saying he can’t do it again. He’s 22 for christ’s sake. If he’s healthy this year and pitches like he did in ’08, he could start 2011 in AAA as a 23 year old. In other words, it’s hard to call a prospect under the age of 25, who still has great stuff, a “failed” prospect.
+22.
thank you, I thought no one wanted to talk about Dellin
He doesn’t get offered arb if:
1. He gets hurt
2. He has a terrible year for us
3. Cash doesn’t think he’s worth $13-14 million for one year
His fastball was 93-96mph at end of year according to newman and most scouts rated him either our 1st or 2nd best prospect. Scouts GUSH over him. The kid has legit #1 ceiling potential. One year of Javy with POTENTIAL for draft picks isn’t enough for me to let that go. That’s just me tho. Trust me, I hear what you guys are sayin.
1. He’s one of the most durable pitchers in baseball.
2. He hasn’t had a terrible season since he was a 21 year old rookie, highly doubt he’ll have one now.
3. Cash thinks he’s worth $12 million for 1 year, don’t think $13-14 mil for 1 year is a huge stretch.
Can you point to a source on that 96 mph reading? I’ve never heard of him even reaching 95. It’s nitpicky, sure, but I’ve heard that his stuff is good, but it’s not good enough to project him as a #1 after one season in A-ball. The yanks sold high. It was smart. End of story.
Of course it was smart. Anyone who is truly that upset with the trade is clearly overvaluing the prospects.
Yeah, and considering about 98% of people across baseball consider the trade a big win for the Yankees, I’m cool with it.
Second that
[...] Learning from Dellin Betances | River Avenue Blues [...]
Betances went to one of our rival high schools and I pitched against his sister. Their school had one of those fields where the softball and baseball fields are across from one another and we were playing there when Betances was pitching and a whole lotta scouts were there. A few weeks later, he was drafted by the Yankees. I thought it was pretty cool.
cool story hansel…
actually nvm that is pretty cool
Nice. A Zoolander reference.
“cool story hansel” is gonna be a thing. book it.
I totally agree with the thread.
Why hasn’t anyone considered the fact that they traded for Vasquez and gave up Vizcaino because they are in a win now mode. Vasquez helps that and a kid who could potentially help in 5 years does not.
I am more concerned about having the best rotation in baseball and potentially the best #5 starter in the league out of the duo Joba/Hughes, than having a potential great pitcher.
The Vasquez trade helps towards our championship goals. Waiting for Vizcaino does not. For some teams not in contention this trade wouldn’t make sense, but for us it does.
Correction: Vazquez*
Co-sign. We need to bang out a few more ‘ships while Jeter Posada and MO are still performing at elite levels.
BINGO !!!!!!!!
Why hasn’t anyone considered the fact that they traded for Vasquez and gave up Vizcaino because they are in a win now mode.
The Yankees aren’t in win now mode. They’re in win always mode. They’ve been rather successful in remaking the team to be younger, so if anything, they’re in even less of a win now mode than they were a few years ago.
Win always mode isn’t realistic.
try as they might, it’s unlikely that they don’t have at least a couple years of less dominant teams than this year (and, the way it looks, 2010) in the semi-near future. It’s impossible to effectively and completely retool on the fly. Not saying they’re going to be bad or miss the playoffs or anything, but they’re not gonna be WS favorites every year, they’re not gonna have amazing rotations or lineups every year, and they’re certainly not going to have great or even good defense every year. Being good every year means you never get a chance to draft the five-tool SS or super-impact bat. IFA is great and all, but there are always going to be “lull” periods after the dominant ones for the yankees. Like I said, they’ll always be able to field a highly competitive team, but they’re not going to be over 95 wins every year. It just doesn’t work that way, not even for the yankees.
I agree, but they have done a pretty good job with 13 PS appearances in 14 years. And they still have some pretty elite talent over the next few years. Will Phil, Joba, Montero, Romine and (God forbid) Gardner be the next ‘Core’?
[...] Learning from Dellin Betances | River Avenue Blues [...]
I think Atl was motivated enough to move Vasquez and his contract and their surplus pitching w/o including Vizicano. I think another combination of prospects could have worked. I think Cash was a bit quick to trigger this one. Viz was one of the “crown jewels”, and they dont grow on trees. There is something to be said of building from the bottom up. I have a bad feeling this maybe one we regret. Hope I’m wrong…