Montero goes deep on season’s final day

Open Thread: My 2010 RAB Fantasy Football Team
Yanks can't answer Orioles in 4-3 loss

Last day of the regular season, everyone. It’s been real. (Yes, DotF is still around in the playoffs for you noobs)

Triple-A Scranton (4-3 win over Lehigh Valley in 12 innings) they finished at 87-56, tops in the North Division … their playoff series with Columbus starts on Wednesday when D.J. Mitchell gets the ball
Reid Gorecki, CF: 2 for 6, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 2 K, 1 SB – threw a runner out at second
Kevin Russo, 2B, Juan Miranda, DH & Edwar Gonzalez, RF: all 0 for 5, 1 K
Jesus Montero, C: 1 for 5, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 K – finishes the season at .289/.353/.517 with career highs in doubles (34), triples (3), homers (21), walks (46), and strikeouts (91) … the strikeouts suck, but it’s not an absurd amount and you’d expect him to whiff more as a 20-year-old at this level … all in all, considering how poorly he started, it was a rather successful season for the Yankees’ undisputed top prospect
Jorge Vazquez, 1B: 2 for 4, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Chad Huffman, LF: 1 for 4, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 K
Eric Bruntlett, SS: 1 for 5, 1 R, 2 K, 1 SB
Brandon Laird, 3B: 1 for 5, 1 2B, 1 RBI - finished the year at .281/.336/.482 with a career high 25 homers and 42 walks between AA and AAA
Hector Noesi: 6.2 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 4-6 GB/FB – 63 of 94 pitches were strikes (67%) … finishes with a 3.20 ERA and a 153-28 K/BB ratio in 160.1 IP at three different levels
Royce Ring: 0.1 IP, zeroes, 1 K – three of his four pitches were strikes
Zack Segovia: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 0-2 GB/FB – nine of 13 pitches were strikes (69.2%)
Kevin Whelan: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1-0 GB/FB – half of his 22 pitches were strikes … I guess he’s the closer with Jon Albaladejo in New York, but he blew the save in this game when he served up a solo homer
Amaury Sanit: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Balk, 1-1 GB/FB – 21 of 33 pitches were strikes (63.6%)
John Van Benschoten: 1 IP, zeroes, 1 K, 1-1 GB/FB – nine of 15 pitches were strikes (60%)

Double-A Trenton (5-2 win over New Britain) they finished at 83-59, tops in the Eastern Division … their playoff series with New Hampshire starts on Wednesday … they’re going to get some help for the playoffs, because Rob Segedin’s on the way to fill the hole that’s existed at third since Laird was promoted … pretty aggressive move for this year’s draftee, but I like it
Austin Krum, CF: 1 for 3
Taylor Grote, PH-RF: 0 for 1, 1 BB, 1 K – he’s up from Charleston to help out in the postseason … pretty sure he was put in to get his feet wet and to also give Krum a bit of a rest before the playoffs
Corban Joseph, 2B: 1 for 4, 1 3B, 1 RBI, 2 K - finished the year at .283/.362/.415 with a career high 33 doubles (previous career high was 17) and six homers … impressive stuff for a 21-year-old in A+ and AA
Matt Cusick, 2B: 0 for 1 – same deal as Grote, just giving CoJo a rest
Dan Brewer, RF-CF: 1 for 4, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 K – the triple slash doesn’t stand out (.270/.346/.407), but he set career highs in doubles (34), homers (10), and steals (29)
Austin Romine, DH: 2 for 4, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K – finished at .268/.324/.402 with a career high 31 doubles and 37 walks
Marcos Vechionacci, 1B: 2 for 4, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI – hit .283/.350/.421 with 11 homers … too bad he didn’t do that like, three years ago
Rene Rivera, C: 1 for 3

R.J. Baker, C: 0 for 1
Damon Sublett, LF: 1 for 3
Luis Nunez, SS & Justin Snyder, 3B: both 1 for 4 – Snyder scored a run
Andrew Brackman: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 7-4 GB/FB – finishes with a 3.90 ERA and a 126-39 K/BB ratio in 140.2 IP … pretty amazing after last season
J.B. Cox: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 2-1 GB/FB – I have to admit, I didn’t expect to see him at all this year
Wilkins Arias: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 WP, 2-0 GB/FB
Josh Schmidt: 1 IP, zeroes, 1 K, 1-1 GB/FB
Ryan Pope: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HB, 0-1 GB/FB – 3.61 ERA with a 62-14 K/BB ratio in 57.1 IP as a reliever … he really gave the Yanks something to think about this winter when it comes to protecting him from the Rule 5 Draft

High-A Tampa‘s regular season is over. Their playoff series with Dunedin starts tomorrow.

Low-A Charleston (2-1 win over Greensboro in 10 innings, walk-off style) they finished at 65-74, near the bottom of the Southern Division … no postseason for them
Slade Heathcott, CF: 1 for 5, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 2 K – doubled in the tying run in the bottom of the 10th, then came around to score the winner
Emerson Landoni, 2B: 1 for 2, 3 BB, 1 K – got picked off second
Rob Lyerly, 3B: 3 for 5, 1 RBI, 1 CS – walk-off single … finished the year at .312/.356/.425 … not a bad year at all
Luke Murton, 1B: 1 for 3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
DeAngelo Mack, DH: 0 for 4, 3 K
Neil Medchill, LF: 0 for 3, 3 K, 1 HBP – finished the year with 154 strikeouts in 417 at-bats (2.7 at-bats per strikeouts), 18 more strikeouts than anyone in the system
Ramon Flores, RF: 1 for 4, 1 K, 1 SB
Kelvin Castro, SS & Hector Rabago, C: both 0 for 3, 1 BB – Castro K’ed once, Rabago thrice … Castro also got caught stealing while Rabago allowed a passed ball
Shane Greene: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 1 HB, 4-6 GB/FB
Kelvin Perez: 4 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 WP, 6-2 GB/FB

Short Season Staten Island‘s season is over. They did not qualify for the postseason.

The Rookie GCL Yanks season is over. The GCL Phillies won the league championship.

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Open Thread: My 2010 RAB Fantasy Football Team
Yanks can't answer Orioles in 4-3 loss
  • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Rebecca-Optimist Prime-Jesus & Maquinito FTW

    “finishes the season at .289/.353/.517 with career highs in doubles (34), triples (3), homers (21), walks (46), and strikeouts (91) … the strikeouts suck, but it’s not an absurd amount and you’d expect him to whiff more as a 20-year-old at this level … all in all, considering how poorly he started, it was a rather successful season for the Yankees’ undisputed top prospect”

    =D =D =D

    • MikeD

      Agreed. Really, why the concern about strikeouts at all? For a power hitter who is only 20 and had his first full season at AAA, his strike outs are low. Go review Miguel Cabrera’s strike out rates in the minors. Even lead-off type hitters like Derek Jeter strikeout approximately 100 times a year.

      • Accent Shallow

        20% K/AB is definitely not bad, especially when compared to other recent top prospects, who were all older than Montero at AA/AAA.

    • http://www.twitter.com/ericsolomon Eric

      A 20-year-old catcher who OPS-es .870 in his first year of Triple A? I’ll take two, please!

  • http://www.mystiqueandaura.com Steve H

    Can you imagine, if someone told you in March that Brackman and Betances would end the season with a combined 234/61 K/BB ratio? Seriously, on the list of things I would believe that would be way down on the list. That’s just insane.

    • Doug

      yeah, brack’s 3+ ratio is ridiculous. as far as dellin, just glad he stayed healthy. he could’ve put up a negative ratio for all i care

    • http://janeheller.mlblogs.com/yank_c.jpg T-Dubs

      So insane it’s Outsane. Love, love, love it.

  • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

    Not too shabby, Jesus. I would now like to go back to all the “ZOMG take down the Jesus Montero Watch, it’s bad luck” stuff and laugh at it.

  • Doug

    Hey Mike, if someone had asked you at the beginning of the season to go over/under on each of these for Montero, what would you have gone with:

    1. AVG: .289
    2. OBP: .353
    3. SLG: .517
    4. BB/K: .51
    5. HR: 21

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      I probably would have taken the even on everything but the AVG. I thought he’d be able to hit .300.

      • Doug

        well, hitting .350ish over the last 70 or so games almost got him there.

        thanks!

      • http://twitter.com/iiKeane JobaWockeeZ

        Should we expect his meh-ish OBP to stay?

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

          I would. .350-.360ish. Not ideal, but you live with it given the power.

          • MattG

            Wouldn’t that be an outlier? The only person that I can think of with prolific power, a high batting average, but a sub .360 OBP, is Juan Gonzalez. Even in checking Juan Gone’s career on BRef in writing this post, his ten closest comps all had much better OBP.

            Maybe he’ll be another Juan Gonzalez, but I would bet the OBP will improve, and improve a lot.

            • Accent Shallow

              Hell, Juan Gonzalez was not a bad player, just overrated at the time. Juan Gonzalez playing catcher? Si, por favor!

              • MattG

                Frank Thomas comps notwithstanding, we should all be very pleased if Montero has such a career, which is akin to what Mike A seems to expect, but my point is that Juan was pretty unique. It’s odd to find a hitter with such power and average that doesn’t OBP at least .380. As a poster mentions a little below this, Miguel Cabrera didn’t walk much at Montero’s age either, but he OBPs just fine now.

                I bet Jesus will learn to be more selective, if only to help him reach his full power potential.

            • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

              Ryan Howard qualifies most of the time.

              • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

                Whoops. Glossed over the high batting average part.

                • Accent Shallow

                  Look at Howard’s minor league K-rates. Eeeeek.

  • http://yanksdraftsandprospects.blogspot.com/ Jake H

    I would have liked Jesus to crack 900 on the ops but considering the way he started. His line is HUGE

  • larryf

    The bat speed and “batted ball speed” of Montero in the times I have seen him were just amazing. A man among boys and he was the youngest on the field! I was happy with everything but his slowness on the bases…

  • vinny-b

    is Montero’s ceiling still Miguel Cabrera ?

    i would think, yes. In other words, his season at AAA hasn’t changed anything right?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      Yes, though I don’t think he’ll ever walk as much as Miggy.

      • vinny-b

        thanks, Mike

      • Doug

        or frank thomas i presume (klaw comp)?

        • larryf

          Did the Big Hurt have great RF power?

          • Doug

            he had great all-field power. awesome, awesome hitter. my favorite hitter of the 90s.

        • http://twitter.com/JoeRo23 The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

          That wasn’t really a comp in the context in which I think you’re using it. KLaw didn’t mean Thomas is a good comp for Montero in that he expects Montero to perform like Thomas, he meant that Thomas is a good comp for Montero physically and in their hitting mechanics. (Someone please correct me if I’m wrong on this.)

          • Doug

            that was what he initially said about a year ago. in a chat recently (within the past month), actually compared him to Thomas in terms of production upside.

            • vinny-b

              i think those comparisons are a bit high. Frank Thomas is almost a once in a lifetime hitter. Who was on pace to out produce Pujols

              • Doug

                Probably, but here it is (within his 8/12 ESPN chat):

                Q: Which current hitter would you compare Jesus Montero to? If he goes to a different team any chance he stays behind the plate?
                Klaw: Physically and in his swing, he reminds me of Frank Thomas. And I know that’s an insane comp to put on a guy, but I don’t think that’s out of the question as an optimistic long-term projection.

            • http://twitter.com/JoeRo23 The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

              Yeah, you know, I guess he did say that. Here it is:

              “Physically and in his swing, he reminds me of Frank Thomas. And I know that’s an insane comp to put on a guy, but I don’t think that’s out of the question as an optimistic long-term projection.”

              I must have just overemphasized the “physically and in his swing” part and not the (optimistic) long-term projection part.

      • Jake

        Just for the sake of comparison:

        Miggy at A ball, age 18: .328 OBP, 37BB/76K
        At A+, age 19: .333 OBP, 38BB/85K
        At AA, age 20: .429 OBP (.365 AVG), 31BB/49K

        It’s probably too soon to know how often Jesus will walk in the pros.

      • Chris

        FWIW, Cabrera walked 131 times in 1597 PA in the minors. Montero has 123 BB in 1570 PA.

        • Accent Shallow

          However, Cabrera didn’t hit for power in the minors — he had a .130 ISO, while Montero has an ISO of nearly .200. You’d think that would affect how much they walk.

          (No, I didn’t adjust for league context, but that’s a stark difference. It’s not like we’re talking .150 v. .160)

  • Fred Lemondtero

    I would like Montero to be called up thank you.

    • larryf

      love that handle. I am thinking of changing mine to Yo Quiero Montero…

      • Fred Lemondtero

        That’s Racist!!!

  • mike c

    jesus montero, post all-star break: .351/.396/.684 with 14 HR, ridiculous

  • http://twitter.com/JoeRo23 The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

    Brackman in Trenton:

    80.2 IP, 3.01 ERA, 77 H, 3 HR, 70/30 K/BB

    … And most of the damage against him was done shortly after his promotion, he settled in very nicely against AA competition. You know, as much as I’m clearly a huge Betances fan, and as exciting as a lot of other guys were this season, Brackman’s performance, considering what he looked like last season, is pretty remarkable and almost doesn’t get enough hype. I mean, Betances has shown flashes in the past, and Banuelos has been consistently good through his professional career, but Brackman was awful in 2009. For him to make this sort of turnaround is really very exciting. Very happy for that kid, and for the organization.

    And how about that Hector Noesi, huh? Nice start for him tonight. You’ve gotta like that his K numbers have stayed up as he’s moved up through the system while the walks have stayed down. I know he doesn’t profile as a top of the rotation kind of guy, but he looks like someone who has a pretty good chance to have a decent MLB career, and that’s not a bad guy to have in your system.

    Just a whole lot to like in this system in 2010. Very satisfying year to be a fan of the system.

    • http://twitter.com/JoeRo23 The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

      Wow… Just to follow-up on the point about Brackman finishing strong in Trenton…

      In Brackman’s last 6 starts:

      33 IP
      4 games yielding 0 ER
      3 ER total
      25 H
      0 HR
      23/7 K/BB

      • Slappy White

        I saw Brackman pitch last year and he was lost. Incredible turnaround

    • Accent Shallow

      I’m definitely excited about Noesi. I think he can offer more than Nova going forward.

  • Accent Shallow

    Montero had 91 Ks in 453 ABs, while higher than his previous rate, that’s not nearly as poor as other recent top prospects, who were at 25-33%.

    Gives me a good feeling about his ability to succeed in the big leagues, especially since 20% was a big jump for him. I’d bet it’s down around 15% next year to start.

    As for Brackman, you have to be excited about the K/BB ratio, but I’m not thrilled about him yielding a hit per inning on the year. Do you start his 2011 in Trenton or Scranton? I’d say Trenton, then bump him up when he earns it.

  • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Rebecca-Optimist Prime-Jesus & Maquinito FTW

    Best year ever for DotF? I’d have to think the farm system hasn’t been this highly considered since the nineties…

  • Slappy White

    So again I ask, does Jesus begin 2011 in da Bronx ?

    • mike c

      i certainly hope so

      • whozat

        I most certainly hope not. The best thing for the Yankees is for him to stick at C. I think he needs to more time catching at AAA in order for that to happen.

        Let him force his way to the bigs with his performance.

        • Chris

          I think he did that in the second half.

        • mike c

          true, you wonder how long if ever is enough to make him a good catcher though. if he could at least be v-mart behind the plate i’d be happy

        • futureman

          He’s about as good as Posada was in the minors defensively. I think he should start next season in the Bronx.

    • http://janeheller.mlblogs.com/yank_c.jpg T-Dubs

      I say no. Comes up in June.

    • Accent Shallow

      *shakes magic 8 ball*

      “Most likely not.”

      Now, if I were an insider, I’d go with “My sources say no.”

    • MikeD

      No. The Yankees will have him start the year in AAA to continue working on his defensive skills. He’ll be called up a couple months in to serve as both DH and catcher, mentoring under Posada (as well as Girardi and Pena).

  • Jerome S

    “they’re going to get some help for the playoffs, because Rob Segedin’s on the way to fill the hole that’s existed at third since Laird was promoted…”

    Also…

    /800poundgorilla

  • http://janeheller.mlblogs.com/yank_c.jpg T-Dubs

    I love our system.

    • vinny-b

      this farm system would be alot to walk away from (ie Girardi)…

  • larryf

    Montero makes me happy as does Boston up 11-2 in the 6th.

  • mike c

    what’s better than having montero on the yankees in 2011?
    having jesus montero on the yankees in 2011 and signing cliff lee
    :::embarassment of riches:::

  • Plank

    Is Montero going to be the top rated prospect for all teams this offseason? Most of or all of the people ranked ahead of him are in the majors. Was he leapfrogged by anyone?

    • http://janeheller.mlblogs.com/yank_c.jpg T-Dubs

      The Trout.

    • Doug

      Mike Trout will be #1 on most lists

      • Jerome S

        Isn’t he a bit far out from being a major leaguer?

        • Doug

          not if you believe the hype. may actually see some type in the majors next year.

    • MikeD

      His still recognized defensive limitations behind the plate will drop him a notch or two.

  • Jerome S

    I’m unsure if this is an improper question or not, but…
    who do you think next year’s top prospect will be? Besides Montero, if they choose to leave him in AAA at the beginning of the season.

    • http://janeheller.mlblogs.com/yank_c.jpg T-Dubs

      Probably Romine with the possibility of Heathcott or Sanchez.

      • Jerome S

        But both of them seem to be a few years away from the bigs, barring some biblical sudden growth in ability. I’m asking about next year’s parallel to Montero, in the sense that they are only a year away from making a splash in the majors?

        • http://twitter.com/marcos_aguirre Marcos

          By that definition, Laird, no? Not realy a big prospect, but probably the next one to come up and have SOME sort of impact. I’m guessing he’ll be up for Sept. Call ups next year, but I could very well be wrong.

          Although wasn’t Romine’s ETA 2012-ish? So that would mean, he’d start (and stay) next year at AAA and move to the bigs some time in 2012, I doubt he’d be called up after ST, but perhaps a few months into the season?

      • http://twitter.com/marcos_aguirre Marcos

        (While I too think it will be Romine or Sanchez) No love for the Brackster or for Man-Ban?

        • sleepykarl

          *Dellin begins to tear up…

      • C.Roy

        A week or two ago either Klaw or callis said that they think we’ll have 5 top 100 prospects (Twitter). They also said it includes the 3 B’s so two of those three you mentioned are after 5 unless they aren’t counting montero because of graduation. I’d say it will be Montero, Romine, Betances, Man-Ban, Brackman, Sanchez, Heathcott, but I’m far from good at prospect eval.

  • Slappy White

    How old was Melky when they first brought him up and he couldnt catch fly balls ? 20 ?

    • whozat

      Yeah, 20.

  • vinny-b

    1) Montero

    2) Banuelos

    3) Brackman

    4) Betances

    5) Sanchez

    6) Romine

    7) Heathcott

    8) Nova

    9) Adams

    10) Laird

    yes. I know Romine is very low. But i can’t overlook a kid named Sanchez and 6’8+ ceilings…

    • http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bring-Melvin-To-America/193013541601?ref=sgm Andy In Sunny Daytona

      You don’t have to worry about Romine’s ranking, it’s fine.

      • http://twitter.com/iiKeane JobaWockeeZ

        Agreed. I find that area all interchangeable.

    • MikeD

      Depends how you’re doing the rankings. Ceiling or closeness to contributing in the majors? I’m guessing it’s ceiling, since you have a player, Nova, who is already contributing in the majors as the number eight prospect!

      Regarding Romine, fan enthusiasm seems lower after his blistering-hot start. Overall, we should be pleased with the year. It was a good growth year, just not spectacular. We always talk about how young Montero is for AAA, but as Keith Law pointed out, Romine is also on the young side for AA,especially for a starting catcher. He also experienced his heaviest workload behind the plate this year, reaching 100 games caught for the first time, and dealing with a heavier workload early on (he used to share at the start with Montero), so he did tire a bit. Last, he hits in a pitcher’s park. By the time his minor league career is over, it’s likely that his 2010 numbers will be the lowest of his career.

      Question is, where does Romine start in 2011? If the Yankees want to keep Montero in AAA to start the season to work on his catching, then it makes no sense to promote Romine to AAA until Montero joins the Yankees.

      AA to start, or do they share time at AAA?

      • MattG

        Romine’s got to move up. He’s got nothing left to prove at AA at all, and with Posada having one year left on the deal, 500 AAA at bats are a necessity.

        I bet the Yankees bring Montero north next spring, and pencil him in for C/DH duties. He can probably learn the craft much better with Girardi and Pena than anywhere else–but of course he has to be passable to start.

  • Doug

    Rob Segedin was already with Trenton today in New Britain.

  • larryf

    Be interesting to see where Montero bats in the Yankee order. I would think having a big bat behind him might make him successful sooner.

    Boston up 11-5 as their pitchers have walked 3 in a row with bases loaded…

    • mike c

      i’d put him behind swisher or posada

    • MikeD

      I wouldn’t worry too much where they eventually bat him in the Yankee line-up. Even with the hype, he will not be pitched around at first until he proves he can hit on the MLB level. Pitchers, at first, will come right after him. He could have Brett Gardner hitting behind him, and they’ll recognize that Gardner gets on base at a .390 clip and Montero is unproven, so they’ll make him earn his way on at the start. (BTW I don’t expect Gardner to be hitting behind Montero. Just pointing out that in the Yankee line-up there is almost always going to be a tough out coming up that’s more proven than Montero.)

  • Yo Quiero Montero (formerly LarryF)

    Montero’s stance helps him not get fooled. He has a wide stance, slightly open and doesn’t have a big front leg raise as a timing mechanism. He holds his hands back and bat high over the shoulder quiet and parallel to the ground. Locked and loaded-all forward motion.

  • Naved

    Brackman is starting AAA. He needs to be in the majors by next year or else we could lose him.

    • Doug

      i’m no contract expert, but this can’t possibly be true

    • MikeD

      I’m pretty sure we have him beyond 2011 because of the time he missed due to injuries.

    • http://www.twitter.com/jordan_smed JGS

      He doesn’t have to stick in the Majors until 2013

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      He doesn’t have to stick in the big leagues until the 2013 season. Didn’t use an option in 2008 because he was on the ML DL all year. Used one last year, used one this year, will use one next year, and will qualify for a 4th option for the 2012 season because he will have used his original three within his first five years as a professional.

    • Accent Shallow

      I believe he doesn’t have to stick in the majors until 2013, which is certainly a nice cushion.

      As for why — 2007 first round pick. Signed late enough to avoid burning an option. Needed TJ quickly, so spent 2008 on the MLB DL, again without being optioned. Optioned for the first time in 2009, and again in 2010. Players have three options, but will likely be granted a fourth one, since he spent 2008 injured. (However, maybe MLB won’t issue one, since he didn’t burn an option at the time. Who knows? Mike, hopefully)

      Regardless, he still has an option for 2011, and may have another for 2012. His exposure to the Rule V draft won’t matter if the Maya are right.

      • http://www.twitter.com/jordan_smed JGS

        Exposure to the rule 5 is irrelevant, Maya notwithstanding. He is already on the 40 man, and protected from said Rule 5.

        • Accent Shallow

          I meant “being out of options, and thus having to stick on the 25-man”.

          I’ll be over in the corner, counting b’ak’tuns.

      • MikeD

        Maya?

        • JohnnyC

          2012.

    • MattG

      OK, so it’s 2013, technically–but that’d make him a 28 year-old rookie, no?

      If this guy is going to be any good, he’s going to be in the majors in September, 2011. He’s pretty much out of development time as it is.

      • Chip

        Who cares if he’s a 28 year old rookie? I’d rather that than he comes up as a 26 year old like Randy Johnson did and walk the entire park. If he comes up in 2013 and is an above-average starter for 4 years in the AL East, I think we’ll all be very satisfied

        • MattG

          4 years? I don’t think that’d satisfy Oppenheimer.

          An unlike Juan Gonzalez, I am reasonably certain Randall Johnson is an outlier. I would not expect much improvement from a player past his 27th birthday.

          True, Brackman started late, and missed a year to injury, so I guess maybe he will do some improving, but my point is this: he ain’t 20, and he doesn’t have a whole lot of projection time left. 2010 was a monumental step forward, from damn near bust to legitimate, albeit old, prospect. He needs to do that AGAIN, and make it to the majors next year.

          • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

            4 years as an above average starter out of a #30 pick should satisfy absolutely everyone.

            • MattG

              I will disagree with that vociferously. If that’s what you want with that pick, you take Brett Cecil, who’s already got the first of those four seasons under his belt, and who signed for several million dollars less than Andrew Brackman.

              No, the reason you take Brackman there is because you are dreaming on dominant, ace-type seasons. 4 above-average years? Why absorb all that risk, and that signing bonus, if that’s what you’re looking for?

              • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

                You dream about dominant, ace level seasons with Brackman and hope you get them. More than likely you won’t just because that’s the nature of the beast. Four above average seasons is one hell of a return on the 30th pick. Cecil’s basically hit on his best case scenario, he was a reliever in college the Jays managed to turn into a starter.

                • MattG

                  I don’t disagree with the analysis of the return. A 30th pick, or even a 3rd pick, is unlikely to play one day in the majors, so if he gives the Yanks four good years, then they got a solid return on the pick. I get that.

                  I disagree with the expectations (especially in hindsight). No way that pick is made with the idea of 4 above average seasons. That’s a boom or bust pick, and if you actually want 4 above average seasons, you took the wrong guy, at the wrong signing bonus. Instead, you take the polished college pitcher with little leverage and no projection.

                  Thus, that pick can only be a success if Brackman becomes an ace. You wanted an ace, and you didn’t get it.

                  It’s a lottery pick. Sometimes you hit on three numbers, and win $400. So what do you do? Probably buy 400 more lottery tickets.

                  • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

                    It’s a lottery pick. Sometimes you hit on three numbers, and win $400. So what do you do? Probably buy 400 more lottery tickets.

                    If you pay a dollar for a lotto ticket, and the jackpot is $50 million, but you win $400, are you pissed off?

                    • MattG

                      Not at all, but I didn’t win.

                      If I wanted $400, there are probably a hundred ways I can earn it. If I want $50 million, my options are often a lot more limited, and a lot less likely.

              • http://twitter.com/iiKeane JobaWockeeZ

                The Yankees aren’t looking for only 4 years of above average production. If Brackman gives that then we should be pleased given the history of that pick.

            • Chip

              All sorts of this. I mean Brackman wasn’t really a full-time baseball player until he was about 21. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see him put it all together and start blowing the ball past guys

            • http://twitter.com/iiKeane JobaWockeeZ

              That. The value you get from number 30 picks aren’t much. Anything we get from Brackman should satisfy us.

              • MikeD

                He was selected in the first round, as the 30th pick overall in the nation! Yes, you expect value from #1 picks.

                If not for questions about his elbow and the $$ it would require to sign him, he would have gone even higher. Brackman was part of the Yankees strategy of signing high-risk, high-reward players because they’re always selecting later than almost all teams.

      • MikeD

        Not sure what you mean by he’s “out of development time.” He absolutely needs more development time, so it’s good he has more develoment time. He’s only pitched for two years in the minor leagues because of the surgery, and he has already made it up to AA. He is just 24, not turning 25 until December, so he will not be a 28-year-old rookie if he didn’t make it until 2013. Let’s not start adding unnecessary years to Brackman.

        My guess is we will see him in 2011 later in the season, assuming he has no setbacks, when he’ll be 25, and hopefully he sticks at some point in 2012 as a 26-year-old.

        Pitchers are not like hitters. You don’t need to be as concerned if they develop later, especially when there are circumstances around their late arrival, such as TJ surgery and mechanics related to being over 6’10″!

  • PaulF

    Any significance to the fact that the top three minor league teams made the playoffs and the lower minors teams didn’t?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      None, just a blip.

      • Magnus Stultus

        Will there be a Montero Watch Next year on RAB? By that, I meant the little thingie on the side which updates his minor league performances daily.

        • Chip

          There will be another watch. Brackman was last year’s. I’m guessing Manny B for next year, maybe Sanchez

          • MattG

            I’ll nominate Betances.

            First I was going to say Noesi, but being on the 40 man, he’s probably going to pitch some major league innings next year.

            And Romine would be too dull.

          • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

            I might push for Betances.

            • China Joe

              I’d suggest against a Betances Watch. He’s got a sketchy health history, and if he blows out his elbow, those who believe in the “Curse of the Watch” might track you guys down and perform some kind of Aztec sacrifice.

              • camilo gerardo

                i say a goofy picture of the heathcott… with his watch!

  • Naved

    Brackman proved that he handled AA. Opening day next year he should be in AAA.

  • Avi

    For a 6″10 guy who throws in the upper 90’s with a hammer curve Brackman doesn’t K enough guys for me. Just a gut feeling, but i see him becoming a reliever for the yanks. I also like Betances better than him or any other pitching prospect we have at this point. His High K rate and very low BB rate, even when promoted to AA has to excite you.

  • Tyrone Biggums

    Brackman,,,, WOW! People who are calling for him to produce now and become an ace are nuts. ALL draft picks are lottery tickets. While we all hope he’s an ace in the hole, lets be real. If he becomes a solid 3 that’s still good value. Look into our very own system and see a guy like VanBeschoten and see what can become of high draft picks. Yes the Yankees were looking for an ace but that was best case scenario, if he is a solid pro pitcher we still win. Blessed as we are (as Yankee fans) our team is still filled with workmanlike players who just get it done. The Yankee brass would consider his drafting a win if he came up and became the next A.J Burnett. They can’t all be Jeter, and Rivera.

  • Bobby’s World

    Wow everyone has the Yankees future figured out.There are two many catchers so one or two are gone,there is a guy in KC who could be had but one of the catchers must go for this.The AAA pitching staff for next year is stacked already so forget Brackman or anyone else going up next year.Romine if still with the Yankees will start in AA as long as Montero does not go for that pitcher in KC.As far as Romine’s year okay it was a long year for him but he did not live up to his hype.You had guys behind him that had better years like Laird,Brewer to name a few.Lets finish out this season and see what happens over the winter because with the Yanks you never know.

    • MattG

      If Montero isn’t going to be catching part-time for the Yankees in 2010, a trade is definitely a good plan B. Romine in AA again makes no sense. If he is the heir apparent to Posada, you need to promote him to AAA and get him ready for 2012.

      That means promotions for both, or a trade for one. Plan C would have to be keeping them both where they are.

  • pat

    CoJo’s 30 games in Trenton (.215/.306/.327) really dragged down what was an awesome year at Tampa .302/.378/.436.

  • Doug

    Now that his regular season is in the books, some Montero numbers for you. Started off terribly slow (as we all now), hitting rock-bottom after a 1-for-5 (1 K) performance in early June. After 52 games, his triple-slash line was .216/.295/.330/.625.

    Then something finally clicked and he started hitting, well, like we all expected him to hit. Over the last 70 games, his line was .340/.394/.646/1.040.

    Oh, and for those of you interested how that fateful Friday in July (when he was just about dealt for Cliff Lee) turned his season around, he hit .347/.392/.688/1.080 from that day forward (46 games).

  • Another Bronx Dynasty

    When Montero does come up (say in 2011) he’ll be under the careful eyes of Girardi, Pena, (as well as tutored by Posada) for defense skills & working with KLong to continue to grow into a Manny Ramirez monster type career, without the drama.

    I

  • Another Bronx Dynasty

    Looking at all our starting pitching in minor leagues Rivera cant pitch forever (if there was only a way he could) & we’ll need to find his sucessor soon. Thought it was gonna be Joba but he obviously doesnt have the ice through the veins composure for a closer.

    I for one say we sign FA Soriano from Tampa along with Cliff Lee. No need for Mr. Crawford although speed is nice. It will be interesting how much money it will take to resign both Jeter & Mo though. Soriano’s numbers as of today are impressive

    Saves 41
    ERA 1.66
    WHIP 0.81
    SO 47
    IP 54

  • Fair Weather Freddy

    Anyone know why JR Murphy did not play the final 6-7 games of the year? Was he hurt?