Scouting The Trade Market: John Danks
ByMystery pitcher revealed. OK, so John Danks isn’t much of a mystery at all. He’s been a very good pitcher for the past four seasons, and any team would be lucky to have him among their starting five. Last night he came off a DL stint and pitched very well, albeit against a not-so-impressive Kansas City lineup. He would fit right into the Yankees rotation not only in 2011, but also in the future.
Before we launch into the pros and cons of Danks, let’s first look at the White Sox situation. They’re currently 47-51, realistically putting them out of the Wild Card race. That leaves only the division, and while they’re only 4.5 games back in a wide open AL Central, they’ve done nothing this year to show that they’re capable of catching Detroit and Cleveland. Hell, just watch Ozzie Guillen after last night’s game. He sounds precisely like a guy managing a team that is going nowhere.
Yet the White Sox aren’t necessarily sellers. I can’t remember a time since Kenny Williams took over as GM that they were sellers at the deadline, even in their predictably bad 2007 season. In other words, he might not even be discussing Danks. But if the right deal comes along, who knows.
Pros
- While Danks has experienced some minor ups and downs, he’s been very good since 2008. He set expectations high that year, and hasn’t quite reached them again, but he’s still put up fine performances from 2009 through now.
- Even though he started off the year poorly, finishing May with an ERA over 5.00, he’s been quite excellent since the calendar flipped to June. In five starts he’s pitched 30.2 innings and has a 0.88 ERA and 1.87 FIP. But don’t let that fool you too much, since he faced Seattle, Oakland, Arizona, Washington, and Kansas City in that span. In four of the five starts he threw at least seven innings. The only shorter one was when he left due to injury. This has brought his ERA and FIP to better than league average.
- He’s a lefty, which is valuable in itself. But he is a lefty with no discernible platoon split. In fact, he’s been ever so slightly better against righties, thanks to his changeup.
- He has another year left of team control, at what figures to be a decent raise over his $6 million salary this year. He’ll probably max out at around $10 million in 2012, which would be an incredible bargain.
- He has pretty even home-road splits, which is a plus for any player getting traded. There’s nothing worse than acquiring a player whose success is based on his home park.
- He kind of, in a way, reminds me of Andy Pettitte. That’s a plus, right?
Cons
- His career component ERAs — FIP, xFIP, and SIERA — have him closer to league average than top of the rotation. His career ERA has been very good, though, and he has a good sampling of 848.1 innings.
- All the stuff in the pros column is a good reason that he’ll cost a lot in a trade. He’s not going to come at the price of Ubaldo Jimenez, because he doesn’t have as much team control and he’s not as cheap. But he’s good and relatively inexpensive, meaning the White Sox would have to get a good return for him. Perhaps more than the Yankees are willing to give.
- The Sox really have a rough looking rotation next year, and might need Danks to be there. They might be more willing to trade Edwin Jackson, since he might not be around. But he’s not as good as Danks, and probably not worth the price considering his performance relative to the current rotation.
If available I’d love to see the Yankees make a run at Danks. He’s the kind of pitcher I can see staying in pinstripes for a long time. But if he’d look good in navy blue pinstripes, he’d probably look equally good in black ones. I’m not sure what the White Sox think of him long term, but even if they plan to let him walk after 2012 they might be forced to keep him around, if just for the holes in their rotation.
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I’m all for Danks. he would be awesome. let’s hope the package doesn’t start with Montero.
I would trade Montrro for Danks in a heartbeat. Montero has no future with the Yanks. This year clearly shows that.
Montero has no future with the Yanks. This year clearly shows that.
Derek Jeter has no future with the Yankees. This year clearly shows that.
Sincerely,
1995
Could you have picked a worse comp? Jeter had clear position that would need to be filled. He also wasn’t repeating a full season of AAA.
Fine, pick Jorge Posada or Robinson Cano or Alfonso Soriano or anyone else you like.
Not getting promoted by X date or having your name floated in X rumor doesn’t mean there’s no earthly way you end up in pinstripes.
This year does not clearly show that Montero will not be a Yankee in 2012, nor does it clearly show that he has no future in pinstripes. This year clearly shows that the Yankees want to win the title (like they do every year) and trading Montero is just one of many possible ways to attempt to do that.
Keeping him is another.
Wow, even worse comps.
The kid isn’t a catcher. He has no place in this org. Goodbye.
Sincerely,
The Truth
Whether or not he is a catcher is not the end of the discussion. We play in the American League. It has a position called the Designated Hitter. It allows you worlds of roster flexibility.
We’ll find room for Montero.
A full-time DH is the exact opposite of roster flexibility.
Sincerely,
Bill James
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2403952
Again, proving my point.
Thanks!
Perhaps the younger Bill James was opposed in general to the DH since he came of age baseball wise when there was no designated hitter, but most of his writings on the topic have addressed its usage and strategy, coming to the conclusion that the DH rule actually increased the use of strategy.
James today is not completely opposed to using a full-time hitter dedicated to the DH position as long as that player provides value above and beyond what can be provided with roster flexibility. In fact, he is opposed to using the DH just for roster flexibility that weakens the offense. In other words, inserting Ramiro Pena at third base so that A-Rod can be the DH weakens the overall offense by adding Pena into the mix. James is fine with Ortiz at DH; he’s fine with Edgar Martinez at DH; he’s with with Hal McRae at DH. He’d be fine with Montero at DH, especially since Montero at DH can also provide roster flexibilty that Ortiz can’t.
Montero could serve as a power DH, but also provide the roster flexibility you mention. Have him catch a couple games a week, have him also serve as the back-up first baseman, and then have him DH the other 100 games, leaving the other sixty games to rotate A-Rod, Jeter and others for rest purposes.
So Montero clearly could have a full-time role on the team, mostly serving as the DH, but also providing roster flexbility.
That all said, I’d trade Montero for the right player. As TSJC noted, the Yankees might keep him, they might trade him, but they don’t have to trade him just because he doesn’t project out to catch 150 games.
Yeah because if he’s not a catcher, he isn’t allowed to play any other position and he can’t possibly ever add value to the team
If you can’t play a non-DH position well, there’s no way a team can put you in the lineup, you’re worthless and no team will ever keep you.
Sincerely,
David Ortiz, Travis Hafner, Billy Butler, Victor Martinez, Jim Thome, Prince Fielder, Adam Lind, etc.
Any Yankees on that list?
Does it matter?
Wait, don’t answer that, I don’t give a shit what you think anymore.
Hideki Matsui in 2009 worth 2.7 bWAR.
Jason Giambi… Jorge Posada most years (not just this year… not much of a C)… Derek Jeter most years (career -113.1 FLD)…
…Edgar Martinez, Paul Molitor, Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Jason Giambi, Harold Baines, Chili Davis, etc.
None of those DHs play on a team where they don’t have a 35 year old third basemen who is signed until 2017 and a 37 year old shortstop signed through 2013.
…what?
The point is.. a DH can provide value.
Jim S – Not sure why your asking “what?”.. Are you mentally handicapped?
“None of those DHs play on a team where they don’t have a 35 year old third basemen who is signed until 2017 and a 37 year old shortstop signed through 2013.”
I assume this is the same troll as usual… but…
A-Rod has been playing the best 3B of his life, I’d rather Jeter sit than DH in all likelihood, and Montero can take the back-up C role on days when A-Rod, Teix, whoever is DHing.
Hell, Jeter was ready in 1994. Montero will never be a MLB catcher. If they thought so he’d be up already.
Trade. Bait.
Danks is perfect.
“Montero will never be a MLB catcher. If they thought so he’d be up already.”
You’re confusing “never” with “not right now”.
You’re confusing hope with reality.
The kid has no agility. That’s only going to get worse with age.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Designated_hitter
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_base
Exactly why he won’t be a Yankee.
Thanks!
Why? Are they moving to the NL?
Realignment. It makes perfect sense.
DAMN YOU, SELIG!
Reality? The reality is that despite his apparent deficiencies in the field, he’s widely regarded as one of the top prospects in the game and is still just 21 years old. That’s the reality.
“You’re confusing “never” with “not right now”.”
Exactly… The kid is 21.
Russel Martin and his moustache have a future bunking with Mendoza.
It doesn’t show anything like that. It shows a 21 yr old in AAA that is working on his game. Not the first, not the last.
FAILED!!!!
Wouldn’t Danks be the starter that the White Sox want to sign long term? As you said they aren’t sellers and it’s Kenny Williams so he’ll ask the Ubaldo package. I prefer Gavin Floyd or Edwwn Jackson.
John Danks would be a great addition. How about this for a deal:
Yankees: John Danks
White Sox: Eduardo Nunez, Brandon Laird, Jorge Vazquez, Andrew Brackman
Brian Fantana: I’m telling you, this lady has really crawled into Ron’s head.
Brick Tamland: [breaks out laughing] That’s a good one…
Yeah, no.
Seriously, if the Yankees include future HOFs Vazquez AND Laird, the White Sox at least need to send some serious salary relief and probably Thornton + Sale.
Wouldn’t even call back.
how about not trading for a #4 starter and keeping 4 young players to deal for a better player?
Those 4 should get you someone who isn’t having a terrible year.
Pretty much everything you just said is inaccurate.
He counted correctly.
Yankees John Danks
Whitesox Austin Romine minor league pitch mitchell and minor league 2B David Adams that’s it no more. That’s a fair trade or they can get nothing and let him walk.
The Sox really have a rough looking rotation next year, and might need Danks to be there. They might be more willing to trade Edwin Jackson, since he might not be around. But he’s not as good as Danks, and probably not worth the price considering his performance relative to the current rotation.
Edwin Jackson, 2011: 18 starts, 115.2 IP (6.42 IP/S) 3.97/3.17/3.38 E/F/x, 3.62 SIERA, 7.31 K/9, 2.80 BB/9, 2.8 fWAR, 1.9 bWAR
He’d be an upgrade over all but two Yankee pitchers, CC and Colon. I think you’re underselling his “performance relative to the current rotation” a bit, JMHO.
I’d have no issue with a Edwin trade but at what cost. Warren + CoJo? I see no reason to give any more then that.
I’m thinking that’s probably all it should take, maybe less than that. EJax is just a two-month rental and he’s probably no better than a #3 (but also no worse than a #3), he can’t command a true stud prospect.
I agree. I’m jumping on your bandwagon but a playoff rotation of CC/Colon/Jackson is intimidating even if it doesn’t sound pretty.
I like it too. It’s interesting how he’s transformed some as a pitcher this year too. Still throws pretty hard, but throws his slider more than his FB now 43%/35%. So far, it’s resulted in his best season.
Midnight blue pinstripes!
Gavin Floyd please.
Floyd’s prospect cost is probably even more expensive than Danks. I’ll pass.
Why? Because of the years of team control? (I’m not trying to be sarcastic. I’m seriously asking.)
You think the Rangers want that trade back.
Nice post. Agreed with everything. Danks may just be a pipe dream though.
I guess just one thing to add. The assumption that the next five years of Danks career will be better than the first five is pretty legitimate, considering the numbers he was able to put up for his age on the Major League level.
The assumption that the next five years of Danks career will be better than the first five is pretty legitimate, considering the numbers he was able to put up for his age on the Major League level.
I have nothing to add, just wanted to repeat that louder.
Can I have two of him?
I can’t wait to hear Girardi call him “Danky”.
Danksy?
If so they’ll have to create a John Danks dance ala the “El Duque” and call it the Danky Leg.
Well played, Mauer.
Isn’t Danks at least a buy low option? His team’s GM is more of an old school guy, so that should count for something, right? Not saying he’ll cost “Melky and IPK” but his cost should be less in line with where his actual value is.
Danks may actually be over valued by an older school organization. His peripheral numbers show him to be far closer to average than an ace. But just going by scouting and look, he is a big time pitcher.
I always have hope that we can swindle the White Sox for something though.
But just going by scouting and look, he is a big time pitcher.
He fills out a uniform real well.
Sincerely,
Old School Scouts
I’ll be happy to add a couple slightly better-than-league-average pitchers like Danks to the Yankees. Many people thought Pettitte was league average, too. They were wrong.
I don’t think Danks is as good as Pettitte, but he certainly can fill an Andy Pettitte-like role on the Yankees for the next few seasons. Maybe even Bex will develop a crush on him. Nah, that’s asking for too much!
Odds of Bex forming a crush on Danks if he becomes a Yankee = Very high
Odds of Danks having a career like Andy Pettitte’s if he joins the Yanks = something less than scenario one.
I really like Danks overall though. Would probably even trade Montero for him if push comes to shove.
Question isn’t whether he’s good, though, it’s how much it would cost to acquire him. Betances, Banuelos, and Montero all look pretty good themselves.
I thought Nova+Romine was the new IPK+Melky?
IPK-Melky actually turned out to be a pretty good package this year.
Sure is. Any contender would kill to have IPK+Melky this year.
Except the Yankees.
Something I’d never thought I’d say:
Phil Humber is a FA next year… hmmm.
Side note:
How long before Bruney’s 1.596 WHIP, and 6.3 ERA catch up to his 2.30 ERA?
Should be 6.3 bb/9… you get the idea.
Phil Humber is a no-talent bum who was cut, and the Yankees should be embarrased that they got shut down by him. This is unacceptable.
Sincerely,
A few months ago
Not only is Humber not a free agent, but he will make under $500K when the Sox renew his contract. You need six years of service time to qualify for free agency. Humber has 1.
I really like Danks for a non-Banuelos, Montero, or Betances package. Might be pushing it. The white sox seem to be buyers no matter what so I doubt they’re giving him up.
Love Guillen
“F—- this team!… Oh, and Danks pitched well.”
He is the greatest.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....re=related
My choice to replace Girardi when the time comes.
“My choice to replace Girardi when the time comes.”
Hell no. Although it would be entertaining.
That is what I mean. It would be classic!
Oh, I think the YES Network should trade for Guillen, and immediately insert him as the pre- and post-game host for all Yankees games. Heck, Girardi can insert him as his bench coach, and then turn over all post-game interviews to Guillen. It would be must-watch TV in NY, even more so after Yankee loses. Yankee ratings might increase after they lose just to see Guillen’s show.
Would anyone feel comfortable giving up a Betances in a trade for Danks?
I think I would.
Easily.
I might draw the line at ManBan.
Not as easy. But the numbers Danks has put up on the Major League Level over his 22-26 year old seasons is pretty damn good.
Good yes. Damn good, not really.
But “pretty” damn good, possibly.
Good damn!
Damn right
Why do I feel like it’s the first time I took acid all over again?
If you’ve got Alzheimer’s, it always feels like the first time all over again.
Odds Dane Cook reads this and turns it into a horrific “comedy”? 110%.
Nah.
Yessir.
Especially if the Yanks can hang on to him past 2012.
Sure, gotta give to get.
I don’t know. If Danks was the only offer Cash has then sure. If not then no.
I’d do it. Betances and one of the other 7-20 prospects like Laird or Warren.
IF you trade prospects for Danks or anyone else to fill out the rotation then who do you remove from the rotation? CC, Colon, Freddy, and Burnett aren’t going anywhere because of performance and contract. Hughes is 25 and on his way back from injury do you just move him to the pen for Danks? To me the only way a trade works is by getting rid of someone in the rotation.
DL Burnett. He caught a case of the suck.
The problem is worth it if you can secure a long term solution like Danks.
Based on what the Yankees have done with young pitchers, I would guess they send down Hughes.
Based on performance and upside, Burnett has no place in the rotation.
I’m pretty sure you need to review what “upside” means.
You think Burnett has a higher upside than Hughes?
I didn’t say versus Hughes.
So who? Im saying Burnett has performed worse than every starter except Hughes. But when you look at their respective upsides, I’d much rather see Hughes in the rotation.
Anyway, as long as he has that contract, he’ll be in the rotation sadly. So moot point I know.
Burnett’s upside is huge. He has a very good fastball and curveball with a solid changeup. If he could harness his stuff, he could be one of the best pitchers in the league.
Now I don’t expect him to harness it and be a top flight pitcher. Hell, I doubt he’ll ever be as good as he was in 2009. However, he certainly has a tremendous upside, he just never has (and likely never will) reach it.
What Thomas said. There may be arguments for keeping Colon and/or Garcia in the rotation over Burnett, but upside sure as hell isn’t one of them.
They’d figure it out along the way. The only one that’s totally irremovable is CC, maybe AJ because of the contract. You can’t have enough pitching.
Does Garcia have any value to an NL team? Maybe a three team deal for Danks which includes an NL team giving up some prospects to defray the cost?
Does Garcia have any value to an NL team?
Sure, but not as much as he has to us for the rest of this 2011 season as Colon/Hughes/Burnett/Nova insurance.
Yeah, they’d be better served hanging onto him. Hughes could regress, Colon could get hurt, AJ could fall apart. There’s value in having another serviceable SP around. We only have to look at last year to see how things can change.
CC, Colon, Freddy, and Burnett aren’t going anywhere because of performance and contract.
Here, let me fix that for you.
CC and Burnett aren’t going anywhere because of performance and contract. Colon’s performance is dynamite, so he’s not going anywhere.
Freddy Garcia has pitched well, but not as well as Colon, and he’s on a short term contract so moving him to longman isn’t affecting the future. So, it’s Freddy.
————-
Any starter we add (Danks, Floyd, Jackson, Ubaldo, Wandy, whatever) bumps Freddy to the bullpen. He’ll stay there until someone gets hurt or regresses. It is what it is. Freddy’s been very useful, but now that Hughes is back, he’s the low man on the totem pole.
Plus there’s no rule stating you have to wait until the smoke clears and the mirrors shatter.
Can Freddy actually pitch out of the pen? There aren’t too many junk ball guys coming out of the pen these days.
John Danks ? Only because he’s LH and might pitch well in the Stadium. Offer Brackman, Vazquez, and maybe Warren but no more.
http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.co....._id=433579
Brackman’s value may be at an all-time low, and Vazquez is a complete non-prospect. Warren has usefulness, but not nearly enough to land Danks, or anyone worth getting who’s not a salary dump.
Offer Brackman, Vazquez, and maybe Warren but no more.
Chances the White Sox accept a Brackman/Vazquez/Warren offer for John Danks and his career 3.96/4.19/4.16 E/F/x:
-1,000,000,000,000%
I’ll say .00001%
Kenny Williams can be pretty unpredictable.
Danks isn’t worth it if you have to give 1 or more of your top 5 prospects.
Thats essentially saying Warren for Danks straight up, which wouldn’t make any sense because Warren’s ceiling isnt even as high as Danks
You’re forgetting that “Chato” Vazquez is going to be a big league superstar. He’ll hit .340/.460/.690.
Bautistaesque.
If theres one thing the White Sox need more of, its a DH who struggles to make contact but shows good power.
I thought Adam Dunn was one of the greatest hitters to ever live?
Unbelievable.
I’m sure the White Sox are dying to add Andrew Brackman and Jorge Vazquez.
Well, Vazquez might be an improvement on Adam Dunn at this point.
http://www.instantrimshot.com
I think Javy Vazquez would be an upgrade on Dunn right now
Pass on Danks. Chad Gudin is available for basically nothing, as the Nationals have released him. Expect Cashman to announce the signing of him any minute now …..
GudinGaudinHe doesn’t deserve the correct spelling.
Ghad Chaudin
Danks but no Danks.
I love these columns. A good idea would be to add a feature at the end of the columns where the author puts out a FAIR trade that woudl get the deal done for both sides. That would help provide instant perspective and prevent posts like “nunez/laird/brackman should get us danks”.
Except their guess is as good as ours.
Not to discourage them from trying to put a fair trade together in the column.
Yes, but it would give us a decent starting point to begin our prospect/cost debate.
Just because we don’t know what IS enough doesn’t mean we don’t know what’s NOT enough.
I would take Danks if we didn’t have to trade our young pitchers… The market is so much against the yankees, they are better off holding onto their young players
Random thought, if Rays make shields available…would you bite?
Nope, that front office is too smart not to ask for the entire farm and then some.
The Rays would want the world from the Yankees in return, so probably not.
No, Shields is one of those guys who could be great for the next 4 years and when he tanks in year 5 I’ll exclaim “ha, I knew he wasn’t that good”. Just can’t accept that he’s this effective.
No because the Rays like the Blue Jays 2 yrs ago will want more from intra division rival than from other teams. Shields isn’t in the same strastophere of a Roy Halladay.
Danks Joins Yanks
Yanks New Danks
Another Day, Another Danks
Danks Leads Yanks
Danks’ Yanks
/NYPost’d
“DANKS YOU VERY MUCH: John pitches Yanks to 2-0 World Series lead”
“Yankees Bank on Danks”
“Yanks Bank on Danks”
Hank’s Yanks Get Danks, Spank Jays
Hank’s Yanks Bank on Danks to Spank Tanking Jays
/too much
Hank Wanks Danks? No Thanks!
Yanks Bank on Danks and Spank Walkoff on Jenks.
I’d love for this to happen with the only exception being Banuelos or Montero stay put. Everyone else is open game
Bettances to headline a Danks deal? Really? If the Yanks can get Swisher from the W Sox for Betemit, Nunez, and Marquez then they should be able to get Danks for something outside their top 5 or 6 prospects.
Maybe Romine as the starting point since their catching is nearly as bad as the Yanks.
Swisher was largely a salary dump for the White Sox, they were giving him away after a career worst season. Danks is a young lefthanded front-end starter.
I’m not sure what the match is with the White Sox, other than the fact that anybody would want young pitching. They have two young catchers, Mike Blanke and Tyler Flowers. Both project as being quite good. They seem to need young outfielders, of which we have almost none.
Which is why I instead think of Minnesota. Mauer has been playing first base. They traded Ramos to the Nationals. They have been using Drew Butera at catcher, he of get this, a .490 OPS. They have virtually nothing there and might drool over somebody like Romine.
You have to actually want Francisco Liriano though…
Only if he came with Michael Cuddyer, who would upgrade DH, in addition to giving us lots of flexibility. I’m not sure that they would want to sell to that extent, but if they look at themselves in a bit of a transition, I can see where prospects would be extremely attractive to them.
i would think Montero,Nova and a player like DJ Mitchell for Danks could get it done…Think thats a fair trade
Danks would be a good acquisition because he’s a solid LH starter. But he’s just a solid LH starter, not a top-end guy, so expectations would have to be realistic.
And how often are expectations realistic?
Danks or Liriano. The latter is capable of being more spectacular, at times, but the former may be more consistent and reliable.
What would be a fair deal?
For either one of them: Austin Romine+Ivan Nova.
Period.
Just wondering, do you see the Yankees trading for Doug Fister. He has a 3.18 ERA, is only 27, and would come cheap.
Hey yea I can see the Yanks trading for Fister because he would only cost a prospect or two and he has proven that he can pitch, he had a great start against the Red Sox. The only reason he doesn’t have more wins is a lack of run support. He would be a great pickup.
derdk jeter should be batting 10th.