Jul
13

The Obligatory Ubaldo Jimenez Post

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Lost amidst the hoopla of Derek Jeter and CC Sabathia this weekend was a report from Ken Rosenthal indicating that the Rockies have been receiving inquiries about the availability of ace right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez. They aren’t actively shopping Jimenez according to Rosenthal, but “if the Rockies get an offer that makes sense, they will give it serious consideration.” The Reds are already said to have interest, but no significant trade negotiations have taken place.

The Yankees have been looking for high-end pitching since the offseason, and Jimenez the kind of pitcher that usually doesn’t hit the trade market. He has his pluses and negatives like everyone else, so let’s recap…

The Pros

  • In terms of pure stuff, there are few (if any) better. Jimenez legitimately sits in the mid-90’s with two fastballs, a true four-seamer and a two-seamer that runs in on righties. He’ll throw a low-80’s slider to righties and a mid-80’s changeup to lefties, but batters on both sides will get his filthy high-80’s splitter. An upper-70’s curveball will show up every once in a while as well.
  • As you’d expect with that kind of stuff, Ubaldo puts up stellar strikeout (8.19 K/9 this year, 8.39 since the start of 2009) and ground ball (46.6% this year, 49.9% since the start of 2009) rates. He doesn’t have much of a platoon split at all, holding righties to a .220/.298/.323 batting line (3.50 FIP) and lefties to .227/.309/.341 (3.08 FIP) since the start of 2009.
  • Jimenez has been on the disabled list exactly once in his career, and that was this April for a cracked cuticle. Hardly a long-term concern. He’s on pace for his third consecutive 200+ IP season and his fourth consecutive 190+ IP season. Ubaldo has thrown the 15th most innings in baseball since the start of the 2008 season, and he’s that one DL trip away from being top 12. Dude eats innings.
  • The Rockies signed Jimenez to a long-term contract back in 2009. He’ll earn just $2.8M this season ($468,000 a month or so) and $4.2M next season before options for 2013 ($5.75M) and 2014 ($8M) come into play ($1M buyout of each). The 2014 option is voided if he’s traded though, so forget about that. Either way, Ubaldo will be paid a fraction of what he could have earned had he gone through the arbitration process.

The Cons

  • As good as his present stuff is, Jimenez’s fastball velocity is down noticeably after sitting in the upper-90’s over the last few seasons. His swing and miss rate sat between 8.9% and 9.6% from 2007 through 2010, but it’s just 7.5% this year.
  • The strikeouts and ground balls are great, but Ubaldo will hurt himself with ball four. His 3.19 uIBB/9 this year is down from 3.36 in 2009-2010 and 4.23 in 2007-2008, but it’s still nothing special.
  • Jimenez is very much like A.J. Burnett in that he’s hit or miss. One day he’ll look like the best pitcher on the planet, the next he’ll look completely average, and the next he’ll look like he belongs in Triple-A. His average Game Score since the start of 2009 is 57.5 but the standard deviation is 15.9, which is kinda nuts. That means his Game Scores (and thus the quality of his outings) vary a great deal. Burnett is at 50.4 and 17.7 during that time, respectively.
  • He’s done a fine job of staying healthy in the show, but Ubaldo did have some serious shoulder trouble in the minors (2004) and that is never fully behind you. Just ask Chien-Ming Wang. It’s also worth noting that he’s thrown his splitter way more this year (14.4%) than ever before, and that pitch supposedly takes a toll on the elbow over time.
  • Ubaldo has some postseason experience but not much. He allowed seven runs in 15 IP against the Phillies in the 2009 NLDS, though he did allow just four runs in 16 IP as a rookie during Colorado’s march to the 2007 World Series. His track record against AL competition in interleague play is average at best (4.08 ERA and a ~3.50 FIP in 79.1 IP). I don’t put too much stock in that stuff, but it’s worth noting.

One trade came to mind as a comparable almost immediately: Dan Haren from the A’s to the Diamondbacks. At the time of that deal, the 27-year-old Haren had two years and an option left on his contract (total value of $16.25M), and his big league career consisted of 3.97 FIP and 14.1 WAR in 781.1 IP. Right now the 27-year-old Jimenez has a year-and-a-half plus an option left on his deal ($11.12M), and his career consists of a 3.57 FIP and 19.6 fWAR in 832.1 IP. The difference between the two pitchers is consistency, or really the perception of it.

It’s a fair comparison, and it cost Arizona six (!!!) young players to acquire Haren and minor league reliever Connor Robertson (David’s brother, seriously). One of those six was an upper level stud prospect (Carlos Gonzalez), another was a lower level stud prospect (Brett Anderson), one was a rising but flawed lower level prospect (Chris Carter), two were mid-range prospects (Greg Smith and Aaron Cunningham), and the sixth was a young big leaguer struggling to find his way in the show (Dana Eveland). That’s quite a haul.

There are plenty of reasons to like Jimenez and plenty of reasons not to like him. The talent is so immense that it’s easy dream and see him becoming the best pitcher in baseball after a little talk with the organization’s pitching gurus. The risk is also obvious, especially when you consider that the AL East is no picnic. I’m guessing at it’ll take at least four young players to acquire Ubaldo, and two of them are going to have to be absolute studs. Remember, Colorado is not rebuilding, they’re ready to contend and will want players that can help very soon, not two years from now. It’s about cost and risk, how much of the former are the Yankees willing to pay and how much of the latter are they willing to assume. They’d be foolish not to at least inquire though. No harm in that.

Categories : Trade Deadline
  • pat

    That drop in velocity is scary.

    • http://notanevilempire.com Steve O.

      The drop in velocity is a bit alarming, however, velocity usually doesn’t last. Not that kind, at least. I think he can survive without it. I don’t think the Yankees will want to assume the risk of his injury history and his erratic pitching(which is still very good).

  • CC’s third leg

    upper level: Montero
    lower level: Sanchez(one of them are doomed to switch positions)
    reliever: Brackman
    flawed prospect: Jose Ramirez
    mid prospects: Melky Mesa and Adam Warren
    Young big leaguer: Nova

    In no way whatsoever do i accept this if i am cashman, but this could be what it takes

    • Daniel

      you win the award for greatest name.

      • CC’s third leg

        Thank you my friend

    • http://notanevilempire.com Steve O.

      Montero would definitely have to be in the package. I’m sure they would probably ask for one of Banuelos or Betances. Brackman has more value to the Yankees than to other organizations. Chris Carter was probably a better prospect than Ramirez. Adam Warren and Mesa are good mid-level guys. My bet is that they would rather have Noesi.

      Something like a Montero-Noesi-Banuelos/Betances-Mesa-Warren gets it done. Maybe a low level throw in like Turley. I don’t think Cashman pulls the trigger on this, understandably. It’ll take that much.

    • nycsportzfan

      i think it would take

      Montero
      Noesi
      Nova
      Corban Joseph

      I’d do it in a heartbeat.. These guys could be very good, but never be a 3rd in the cy young race, or close to what Jimenez can be… Jimenez has a 2.52 ERA with 50k in his last 8starts, and pitching wins, plain and simple… Were not gonna miss those guys, if we have a CC/Jimenez 1/2 punch… Also, we still have Gary Snachez, Phelps, Warren, Jr MUrphy, Brett Marshall, Romine, Nunez, Heredia, Turley, Stoneburner, Segedin, Roller, Laird, Kontos, Zolio, Bryan Mitchell, Evan Deluca, David Adams, Heathcott, and so on and so fourth… U gotta make a move for top of the line pitchers like Jimenez…

    • Tisha

      Montero , Romine or Sanchez would be demanded, plus Neosi, Betances, Banuelous, Warren and Phelps

    • BornFanDieFan

      Loveley name by the way. I think i agree with every prospect exceps warren and nova. I myself recently decided that our catcher of the future is romine after watching tape. guy can hit and def hits when it is needed. I thought we should make montero play right but if he is needed in a ubaldo deal bye bye :)

  • Daniel

    NO NO NO. This would be Javy 2.0

    • http://notanevilempire.com Steve O.

      Javier was pumping 88-89 mph fastballs up in the zone. Jimenez is so far from that. Predicting the curve for losing velocity is nearly impossible.

      • Ted Nelson

        I could be wrong, but I took Daniel’s comment as referring to trading Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera, and Randy Choate for Javy in 2004. Maybe I am giving Daniel too much credit and that’s not what he meant. If it is… the two are quite comparable: 27 year old season… 3.5-4 straight 200 IP, sub-4 FIP seasons in the NL. Of course the outcome could be a lot different, but I found the comparison fairly accurate.

  • Kevin G.

    Trade Montero for him and then sign Fielder to take his future spot!1!!!!!!!!!!

    /mid-2000 Yankees’d

    • Kevin G.

      Wait…

      Trade Montero for him and then sign Fielder Pujols to take his future spot!1!!!!!!!!!!

      Man, I wonder why I’m not GM.

      • BornFanDieFan

        Pujols is to old and we need the dh for arod. texiera is not moving from 1st he is a way better 1st baseman than pujols. pujols is not worth the 300m 10 yr contract he wants

  • Hester Prynne

    We don’t need no Ubaldo Jimenez. Bartolo’s back, Phil’s back, CC’s dominating. We’ve got a playoff rotation of CC-Bartolo-Phil-AJ and that’ll do unless we can get a #2 clearly better than Bartolo and this guy ain’t any better.

    • Ted Nelson

      Since both 2008 and 2009 there are 8 pitchers in MLB not named CC Sabathia worth more fWAR than Ubaldo… so if you don’t think Ubaldo is good enough, it seems like you might as well say that no one is good enough.

      • johnnybk

        It’s about what you think he will do from here out, and having reservations about that isn’t entirely unjustified(see con section)

        • Ted Nelson

          If you expect that a 27 year old is over-the-hill… who else are you going to trade for? How many teams are out there offering 24 year old proven aces? How many 24 year old proven aces are out there at all?

          Again… if not Ubaldo, who? It’s really hard to make a case for anyone if you can’t make a case for Ubaldo.

          • nycsportzfan

            not to mention, how are we gonna use these prospects? We used to trade away stuff immedietly, now we got a ton of guys that are tradable, and we sit on em… Make a deal, we gotta get something for a few of these prospects.. The yanks would be crazy to no overwhelm ROcks for Jimenez.. I’d be on the phone like, “we’ll give u montero, nova,Betances and Joseph, what up?”

    • Johnny O

      Phil still can’t put guys away, Bartolo could turn back into a pumpkin, and AJ is what he is right now. I wouldn’t feel terribly comfortable with that rotation in the playoffs.

      Imagine if we signed Cliff Lee and Pettitte came back? We’d have nothing to post about right now….

    • BornFanDieFan

      I know bartolo is doing good now but seriously? i doubt that will stay. his trip to the dl shows there is a huge chance he wont be there to finish the season. and he is way better than colon

  • Johnny O

    If we’re going to trade for an AJ Burnett-type schizophrenic pitcher, then it might as well be Liriano. He’s lefty, will take a lesser package of prospects to acquire, and has done it in the AL (for what that’s worth).

    • Ted Nelson

      I wouldn’t take Mike’s AJ Burnett comparison that literally. They’re both inconsistent from game to game, but Ubaldo has consistently had more good games. AJ has had three seasons in his career where he’s pitched 200 innings with a FIP under 4 (only three above 150 innings actually), while Ubaldo is on track to do it for his fourth year in a row.

      I’m not sure I would be ok with giving up all the prospects it’ll take to get Ubaldo, but I don’t think it’s fair to compare him to AJ Burnett outright nor do I think that’s what Mike was trying to do.

      Liriano is more like AJ in that he’s been a guy who will have a great year every four seasons or so… though he’s been completely useless in the other seasons to a point AJ hasn’t really been. I wouldn’t give up much for Liriano.

      • CP

        Liriano is more like AJ in that he’s been a guy who will have a great year every four seasons or so

        That’s not an accurate description of Liriano at all.

        • zs190

          nor is it accurate description of AJ. AJ FIP from 2002-2008: 3.19, 4.94 (only 4 starts, got hurt), 3.19, 3.11, 3.79, 4.33 (ridiculous 17.7% HR/FB), 3.45

          AJ as a Yankee: 4.33, 4.83, 4.54, we just got the older and suddenly durable AJ.

          • Ted Nelson

            How is what you’re saying different from what I said?

            AJ had very good seasons in 2002, 2005, and 2008. He’s never been above 3.4 fWAR in any other season and only been above 3 fWAR two other seasons. He’s had great (or very good) seasons every 3 or 4 seasons.

            I honestly have to ask whether you understood the simple sentence I wrote… one out of every 3 or 4 seasons was very good. The rest were not. Period. How can you argue with that?

            • zs190

              How is that good every 4 seasons? He was always good when healthy for every year from 2002-2008 and then slightly below league average every year from 2009-2011. It is not at all same as what you wrote.

              • Ted Nelson

                2005 is 3 seasons after 2002. 2008 is 3 seasons after 2005. So, it was every 3 seasons for AJ and every 4 for Liriano. Sorry.

                I didn’t say anything about why he wasn’t good. I said one out of every 4 (and should have said 3) he has been very good, but the rest he has not been very good.

            • Andrew

              Well he can argue with that because in his opinion, backed up by FIP, AJ has been great more often than once every three seasons…

              • Ted Nelson

                If a player misses half a season with injury, would you really say… man that was a great season for player x?

                • zs190

                  I think I would in some cases. ARod had a 4 fWAR first half. If we assume he never plays another game this year, I would still consider it a great season because chances are we are getting someone that’s above replacement in his place. so ARod’s 4 fWAR half-season/season can be viewed as a better season than someone who gets 4.5-5 fWAR for a full season.

                  WAR is a cumulative stat but I think you can use it on a rate basis too for gauging how good a season is.

                  • Ted Nelson

                    So… AJ Burnett was great every year?

        • Ted Nelson

          How is it not?

          2006 4.1 fWAR 2.55 FIP 2.16 ERA
          2007 0 fWAR injured
          2008 1.5 fWAR 3.87 FIP 3.91 ERA
          2009 1.1 fWAR 4.87 FIP 5.80 ERA
          2010 6.0 fWAR 2.66 FIP 3.62 ERA
          2011 0.6 fWAR 4.43 FIP 5.06 ERA to date Twins are 55% done with season

          2006 was a very good season. 2010 was a great season. What other great season do you see? What other even good season do you see?

          • CP

            The way you say it suggests that there are no other circumstances involved.

            You know, stuff like Tommy John Surgery.

            • Ted Nelson

              He was two full seasons removed from TJS in 2009 and had a totally awful seasons. He’s four seasons removed from TJS this season and is totally awful. TJS is usually a 10-18 month recovery, and then maybe some control issues after that. It doesn’t give you a free pass for 36 months. It definitely doesn’t give you a free pass four years later coming off a Cy Young caliber season.

              • Ted Nelson

                Josh Johnson also had TJS in 2007 (after Liriano). He’s still been the balls in 2008, 2009, 2010, and now when healthy in 2011.

                • CP

                  Josh Johnson is not Francisco Liriano.

                  • Ted Nelson

                    I understand your point, but you seem to be ignoring or not understanding mine. I never said Johnson is Liriano. I said that he had the same surgery and he recovered a whole lot faster to be a whole lot more consistent.

                    You are honestly saying that Liriano’s inability to bounce back from injury is a selling point? That makes him an attractive player to acquire? Is it the fragile connective tissue or the persistent rumors that he didn’t work hard at all to recover that makes it a positive?

                    • Ted Nelson

                      And it’s not just Johnson… look at Hudson, Carpenter, and dozens of others who have bounced back. Maybe Liriano is actually a slower healer than them, or had a more serious tear, or doesn’t work as hard… not one of those explanations for why he took longer to recover than just about anyone else does is a selling point. At least none of the ones I can think of.

              • CP

                First, every player recovers from injuries differently. Typically pitchers recover from TJ surgery in about 2 years (start pitching after about 1), but not always. AJ Burnett took almost 5 years to be fully over issues related to TJ surgery (residual pain and scar tissue, etc). Just because someone else bounces right back doesn’t mean that Liriano will/would/should have.

                Second, his season so far isn’t as bad as you make it out. He was awful at the start of the year and then went on the DL for shoulder inflammation (just like Hughes). Since coming back he’s had a FIP of about 3.4 in his last 6 starts. Isn’t it likely that the shoulder was part of the reason for his poor start?

                • Ted Nelson

                  Who cares? He has been good one out of 4 seasons. That’s what it is. That’s all I said. You said that’s not accurate. It is.

                  It’s 2011 and he had TJS in 2007 and you’re still making excuses? If he follows AJ Burnett’s career path and has one very good season, one good season, and 3 poor seasons in the next 5 that’s a guy you care to stand up for? A guy you want to trade for?

                  My point was that AJ Burnett has had an up-and-down career. A few very good seasons mixed in with some good, some ok, and some bad seasons. Liriano is on much the same career path right now. A much worse career path I would even say. He’s been downright AWFUL 1.55 of the past 2.55 seasons. Burnett has only had one healthy season that was all that awful (2010).

                  I know it’s not a perfect comparison between Burnett and Liriano. They are two different guys. I don’t see why you so strongly leap to Liriano’s defense, though. The guy was just awful in 2009 and is just awful again in 2011. His ERA is 5 and his FIP is 4.5. Is there a chance he recovers and goes on a string of several strong seasons in a row? Sure. How good a chance is it, though? What are you willing to pay in prospects and $ to Liriano to take that chance?

                  • David, Jr.

                    You are right about Liriano, and the answer is not to pay much for him. I have some quasi-inside information about this from Minnesota, and I was told that the Twins don’t like him much at all, certainly not enough to commit to him via a long term contract, and that they had broached it with the Yankees, asking for Nova and Romine.

                  • CP

                    I don’t care how many good seasons he had in the past. The question is what he’ll do in the future. He could have had no good seasons and I’d still want him if it’s reasonable to expect him to be good in the future.

                    Based on his career history, there’s a reasonably good chance that he’ll be a solid pitcher going forward.

                    The guy was just awful in 2009 and is just awful again in 2011. His ERA is 5 and his FIP is 4.5.

                    He was awful in 2009, and awful at the start of this season. He’s be quite solid since coming off the DL.

                    What are you willing to pay in prospects and $ to Liriano to take that chance?

                    Nothing close to what I’d give up for Ubaldo, but I don’t think it would take nearly as much.

                    As far as ranking them, I’d go:

                    Ubaldo >>>> Liriano >>> AJ

                    That’s not really saying much about Liriano, but he’s not AJ.

                    • Ted Nelson

                      The history of taking forever to recover from injury and/or being awful for prolonged periods leads me to believe it is not reasonable to expect him to be good in the future. Good for a month, for a season? Sure. Good for the length of a contract? Not reasonable to me. Whether you still don’t think he’s recovered four years after TJS because of weak genetics, an abnormally severe tear, or a poor work ethic… each of those explanation raises a huge red flag to me for the future as much as the past.

                      Liriano’s FIP by month in 2011:

                      Mar/Apr: 6.04
                      May: 4.52
                      June: 2.11
                      July: 5.69

                      I stand behind my statement that he’s been awful this season. He’s had good/great starts, but he’s mixed in some really awful starts. 2 of his last 3 have been truly awful.

                      I’m honestly not sure if I would put Liriano above AJ Burnett.

                    • CP

                      Liriano’s FIP by month in 2011:

                      Mar/Apr: 6.04
                      May: 4.52
                      June: 2.11
                      July: 5.69

                      Yay for arbitrary end points!

                      He’s had two bad starts recently. Maybe they’re a sign of what’s to come, but maybe not. I guess we’ll see.

                    • Ted Nelson

                      What end points do you want to use? On the season he’s been awful. Every month he’s been awful. Mixing in some great starts doesn’t mean he’s been anything but awful.

                    • Ted Nelson

                      Before you used the point of coming back from the DL… I honestly don’t know when he was on the DL, but he’s been awful all season so it’s hard to say he’s been great since.

                    • Ted Nelson

                      My whole point, in fact, was to say that your arbitrary end-point of returning from the DL was hogwash… Your whole argument was based on an arbitrary end-point, then you criticize me for doing the same?

                    • CP

                      Coming off the DL because he was injured isn’t an ‘arbitrary end point’. If he was injured and played through it (like Hughes), then there’s a reason to expect a change in performance – thus making it not arbitrary.

                      Every month he’s been awful.

                      No. To quote you:

                      Liriano’s FIP by month in 2011:

                      Mar/Apr: 6.04
                      May: 4.52
                      June: 2.11
                      July: 5.69

                      He was outstanding in June.

                      As for when he was on the DL, it was between his last May start and his first June start.

                    • Ted Nelson

                      “If he was injured and played through it (like Hughes), then there’s a reason to expect a change in performance – thus making it not arbitrary.”

                      If he wasn’t injured and didn’t play through it (unlike Hughes), then there’s no reason to expect a change in performance – thus making it arbitrary.

                      See how that works?

                      Saying he’s been bad every month of the season besides one. Every 5 starts of the season besides one. These end-points are no less arbitrary than the DL trip. It wasn’t even like he missed much time, because I don’t even notice the gap looking through his game log.

                      “He was outstanding in June.”

                      I thought months were arbitrary? When they suite your argument they’re not?

                      The guy has shit the bed 1.55 of the past 2.55 seasons. Call that arbitrary if you want, but it’s overwhelming.

                    • Ted Nelson

                      And Liriano had 3 good starts in May and 1 horrific one just like June… so the DL theory looks weak. His no-hitter was in May.

                      You can keep arguing that Liriano is not inconsistent and it is reasonable to expect him to be a very good pitcher going forward if you want. I don’t really feel like continuing to state the obvious, though, so I won’t be participating.

                    • Ted Nelson

                      One last point…

                      The big knock on Liriano is his work ethic. That he took 3 years to recover from TJS because he doesn’t work hard. That the Twins don’t want anything to do with him long-term because he doesn’t work hard. Starting just awfully this season would also fit into that line of reasoning… perhaps not doing enough in the off-season to get ready and pitching his way into shape for a month. The rumors are that the Yankees were not interested in giving up much of anything before this season specifically because of his crap work ethic.

                      Sometimes the rumors are crap, but here they have been persistent and the evidence seems to bare them out. I’m not saying it’s true, but I am saying the Yankees probably have a lot more reliable info on the subject than you or I do.

                      This is a really, really serious red flag. As much as work ethic is intangible for us fans who can only really speculate on it, it’s very tangible in reality. How long is Liriano going to take to recover next time he gets injured? 3x the normal amount? Will Liriano shit the bed again the first month of next season?

                      There is definitely a potential reward with Liriano. The risk is HUGE, though, and you seem to be undervaluing the risk. Therefore, I wouldn’t give up much to get him.

                    • CP

                      I thought months were arbitrary? When they suite your argument they’re not?

                      They are. That’s why I didn’t use them until you commented that he had no good months.

                      There is definitely a potential reward with Liriano. The risk is HUGE, though, and you seem to be undervaluing the risk. Therefore, I wouldn’t give up much to get him.

                      I agree. But you compared him to AJ, which I think is a bad comparison at this point in their careers. Comparing Liriano now to AJ in 2004/2005 is probably a reasonable comparison, but not AJ now – and just because AJ had one career path doesn’t mean that Liriano will as well.

                      I may be undervaluing the risk, but you seem to be undervaluing the potential reward. If he can maintain his level of performance since coming off the DL (3.4 FIP), that would be a huge boost.

                      As for what I’d give up… I’d trade Nova plus some fillers for him (a B level prospect or so). Another commenter said the Twins wanted Nova and Romine, which I wouldn’t do, but if that’s where they started, then they’d probably a couple steps down from Romine as the second prospect.

                    • CP

                      Actually, the more I think about it, the more I think AJ in 2005 is a good comp for Liriano. He’s recovered from TJS but still finding his groove, has potential knockout stuff, but struggles to command it. The biggest difference is that Liriano had a better season last year than AJ has ever had.

                      Looking at AJ back then, he had a 3.85 ERA (113 ERA+) and averaged roughly 188 innings per season from 2005-2009. That’s not an ace, but that’s damn good. I wouldn’t sign Liriano to a big long-term deal, but for a year and a half leading to free agency? I’d jump all over that if the cost is right – and it sounds like it would be.

  • AC

    Trade Montero for Pineda (from
    Sea). He’s hot some nasty stuff n he’s young. Throws 96. Sea isn’t gonna move Jim or King Felix but it’s worth a phone call

    • http://twitter.com/tjamato T.J.

      So Seattle isn’t going to move King Felix but is going to move Pineda?

      Something about that logic doesn’t seem right.

    • http://www.twitter.com/brandonholley B-Rando

      Not sure if serious…

      Why would Seattle trade Pineda? Why?

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Dear Diary:

      AC had a very funny joke today.

  • Don W

    How much of Ubaldo’s erraticness is attributable to Coors Field?

    • bonestock94

      He is significantly worse at home in many categories this year, but so much so that it seems like an anomaly. Career-wise his away numbers are still a bit better as expected.

  • Joe

    Don’t gut the farm system for the second coming of AJ Burnett. Just get Kuroda as a salary dump.

    • Ted Nelson

      As I describe above, he is not the second coming of AJ at all. Mike was merely saying he’s inconsistent from game to game like AJ.

      Ubaldo has had as many very good seasons in the last three seasons (3) than Burnett has had in the last ten/his career (3).

      It’s a tough call on whether to gut the farm or not… but this guy is not AJ Burnett.

      • Johnny O

        ” Mike was merely saying he’s inconsistent from game to game like AJ.”

        For the recrod, that’s also what my post above was saying in that i called him schizophrenic. Didn’t mean to compare him directly to AJ in any other manner.

        You take things pretty literally. Lighten up, life is good.

        • Ted Nelson

          My life is great, but thanks for your concern.

          My response to your point is that Liriano is comparable to Burnett in a way that Ubaldo is not: he’s had more bad seasons than good seasons. Ubaldo has consistently been a beast for 3.5 seasons. At no point could you say that for definitely Liriano and also Burnett to a slightly lesser extent.

          Basically… seeing trading for Liriano as a substitute for trading for Ubaldo is something I disagree with. Saying that they are both AJ-like was also a comparison I disagree with.

  • Frank

    I just don’t see the Rox even considering a trade of Ubaldo. this is team that is young, competetive and needs to strengthen it’s pitching staff, not trade one of it’s best assets. To me, this is just another trade rumor that has no basis, as are most.

  • Tom Zig

    Gimme all your Ubaldos! Unless by some miracle, Kershaw becomes available, this is the pitcher you trade the farm for.

    • Ted Nelson

      What would you be willing to give up when you say “trade the farm?”

      • David, Jr.

        You made a great point (as usual) the other day when this was discussed that we could be selling low on some of these guys, but I believe it would take:

        Hughes, Montero, their “B” choice, and more.

        It would be a very interesting choice. Either “Opportunity knocks. This guy is a 1/2 type. We might not get this chance again for a while. Let’s go for it. We tried with Lee and here it is again.” Or “We have a decent chance this year anyway. 85+% to make the playoffs and as good a chance as all but a couple of teams from there. Keep what we have. We are good now and our future is good”.

      • ItsATarp

        the Sheeps, Cattles and Chickens

        • David, Jr.

          Or, if they asked for what I said, the counter to it might be getting there, which would be a deal based around Hughes, Montero and Nova.

          Many reasons:

          They would get two good young righthanders to replace Ubaldo.
          We would keep the two B’s for the future.
          We have Catchers in the system behind Montero.
          We may view Montero more as a DH, and we could have that one covered for a while.

        • Cris Pengiuci

          Keep the Sheeps … :-)

    • http://www.twitter.com/brandonholley B-Rando

      I disagree. I don’t think Ubaldo is worth gutting the farm for. He’s an extremely solid pitcher, with plenty of room between current performance and his ceiling, but theres a lot of risk. I’d want much more of a sure thing to trade the farm away.

      • Ted Nelson

        Like who (whom?)? The guy has been the 9th best pitcher in MLB since both 2008 and since 2009 in terms of fWAR. He pitches in what’s still a real hitters park and in on track for his 4th straight 200 IP sub-4 FIP season (198.67 is 200…), his 3rd straight 200 IP sub-3.5 FIP season. His career FIP on the road is 0.5 points lower and his career ERA about 0.2 points lower. He’s only 27 years old. He’s dirt cheap the next few years.

        Of course it still depends what we’re talking about in terms of “trading away the farm.” I don’t know if I would trade for him give the price either, but there aren’t many more attractive pitchers out there.

        • https://twitter.com/#!/TheRealJeromeS Jerome S.

          I guess the question is, is this the ace worth losing Montero for? Considering It’s not just a rental, I’m thinking yes.

          • Cris Pengiuci

            Depending on the other pieces, I generally agree. Not sure I’d include Bentances/Benuelos, and definitely not both. Could see including Nova or Noesi and a few others. Having to include Hughes might turn me away.

      • Oscar Gamble’s ‘Fro

        Pretty sure the farm stuff was referring to Kershaw, not Jimenez.

        • Ted Nelson

          Pretty sure it was not. Unless Kershaw becomes available, THIS (this being Ubaldo) is the pitcher you trade the farm for.

          Another way to read that is “Ubaldo is a guy to trade the farm for, but Kershaw is even better.”

          • Captain Truth

            Hey, Ted Nelson: just wanted you to know that you’re a complete tool. Like 90% of the people that read these comments, I’ve tried desperately to skip over your comment-bullying. But occasionally I accidentally read one of your comments and think to myself, “what a douche bag, I wonder who this is,” only to realize that it’s you again.

            Get a life. If you have any friends in the real world, I would be shocked. You seriously should see someone for your social retardation. Tool.

  • LarryM.,Fl.

    I believe the price will be too high for an AJ type performance. Is he much better than Nova? This trade would not certainly improve the rotation. But, I still believe that we need some assistance with the rotation. CC is fine. AJ is suspect still up 4+ ERA. Bartolio more consistent than AJ but must have an expiration date. Hughes needs the putout pitch. He expends too many pitches at the two strike count then becomes a 5 inning pitcher. Garcia’s magic will run out, IMHO.

    Patience is the key word. 18 days could produce a real gem,I hope.

    • CP

      Is he much better than Nova?

      Yes.

    • gc

      “Is he much better than Nova? ”

      That’s a joke, right?

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Well, at least Bartolio is consistent, we have that going for us.

  • https://twitter.com/#!/TheRealJeromeS Jerome S.

    I like him. I’d definitely give up Banuelos for him. Montero, maybe if it was him and just a few lower-level pieces. Maybe.

    It’s so hard to let go.

    • Kevin G.

      On the bright side, there are a lot of good 1B/DH available this offseason. Hell, maybe if the Yanks got Ubaldo they would have more leverage if/when CC opts out.

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

    What kind of name is that anyhow? Ubaldo? What is that, like, five O’s or two U’s? Whatever happened to good old American names like Dave or Jim?

    • BaltimoreYankee

      (crickets)

    • Jim S

      **Waves**

    • Ubaldo

      its italian

    • Ubaldo

      so fuck off

  • Reggie C.

    Cashman can at least make the inquiry. He’ll be told Montero, Nova, Betances, B. Marshall, and Gary Sanchez. Not sure how long the conversation will last beyond that.

  • Gonzo

    Like everything else it comes down to price and that is dependent on the market. I could see the market for Ubaldo get out of hand given the lack of stud pitchers (sans CC) coming on the market after this year.

    If the Rockies are really just kicking the tires, it might take a huge deal in prospects to land him.

    • http://notanevilempire.com Steve O.

      This. There’s no incentive for the Rockies to trade him. His value won’t fall off a cliff anytime soon.

      Only a premium package of prospects will land Jimenez. Let some other team overpay.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        You know who probably would pony up a shitload of premium prospects to get Ubaldo?

        The Rangers, that’s who.

        • Gonzo

          You know, that makes sense.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

            Ubaldo for Derek Holland, Martin Perez, Tanner Scheppers, Miguel Velazquez, and some throw-ins.

  • http://notanevilempire.com Steve O.

    If somehow, Cashman only has to give up one of Montero/Banuelos/Betances, it will be a steal. But, there’s no way the Rockies are trading Jimenez for anything less than two premium guys. I’d rather ride it out with the prospects, or wait until Montero starts mashing like he has. I’m waiting for him to show that he can be a Victor Martinez mold. That’ll be much more valuable than a top prospect struggling in AAA.

    It’s not happening. Cashman knows what he’s doing. The Rockies aren’t looking to dump him. They want to be wowed. There’s no incentive for him to be moved. That’s why the cost will be prohibitive.

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

    The Rockies have been receiving inquiries about the availability of ace right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez. They aren’t actively shopping Jimenez but if they get an offer that makes sense, they will give it serious consideration.

    Kirk Gibson 1988. That’s my final offer.

    • Gonzo

      They are asking for Bill Mazeroski 1960 or no deal.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        I’ll sweeten my offer by throwing in Greg Golson and Jorge Vazquez.

        • Gonzo

          Throw in Nick Johnson 1999 and it’s a deal.

      • https://twitter.com/#!/TheRealJeromeS Jerome S.

        Anything to keep Ruth ’23. You can’t give up that tank.

        /Memecrossing’d

    • http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ Xstar7

      They want 2008 Dustin Pedroia. That’s their final offer.

  • infernoscurse

    screw trades that involve our future for players not named king felix

    if it cost us 2 straight misses of post season so be it

    • https://twitter.com/#!/TheRealJeromeS Jerome S.

      Is this serious?

      • infernoscurse

        yes

  • Sam

    Montero, Romine, Brackman, Warren, Nova do it?

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      No. They’ll need a premium true frontline ace prospect, and Brackman/Warren/Nova aren’t such a beast.

  • Pastadivingarod

    I do
    Nova Romine Brackman CoJo and vasquez for him

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Good luck with that shit.

    • Mike HC

      That would be a no brainer. Rockies are going to want a lot more than that.

  • Mike HC

    I would imagine the yanks would have to give up the best two prospects they have (whoever the Rockies think that is) and then 2 or 3 other mid to lower level type prospects.

    If the Rockies want something less than that, then it could possibly be a good deal for the Yanks.

  • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joe Pawlikowski

    Nova/Romine is the new Melky/IPK.

  • Avi

    A good hitter is more valuable than a good pitcher. With the way pitching is right now you don’t need name brand guys to have a good pitching staff. Just look at how many scrap heap, retread, no name starters are having very effective years (as good as Ubaldo or better). I’m not sure it makes sense to trade a potentially elite bat when you could trade for a lesser name that will give you roughly the same effectiveness (Wandy?)for way less.

  • Reggie C.

    Quality over quantity right?

    Montero, Betances, Jr Murphy, and Ivan Nova.

    • Cris Pengiuci

      That would probably get thier attention. Not sure I’d be willing to include JR Murphy, though.

  • Crime Dog

    I can’t see them wanting anything less than Montero/Nova or Noesi/Betances or Banuelos/ CoJo/ A lower level guy (Turley?). Thats alot.

    Random thought: What if they were to ask for Gardner or Robertson. They aren’t rebuilding and they’re gonna want help now. These guys are young, controllable and contributing right now.

    • infernoscurse

      you then lose your overrated leadoff hitter and your future closer

    • CS Yankee

      If you suggest they give up Gardner or Drob we would be screwed this year.

      Not going to happen.

      Montero, choice of a “B”, and Noesi would be a good start. He is a top 10 pitcher and would likely play out better than Lee over the long haul ($ per WAR), IMHO.

      Do it.

      • infernoscurse

        top 10 pitcher? for half a season of brilliance?

        guys id rather have:

        1.cc
        2.cliff lee
        3. king felix
        4. roy halladay
        5. kershaw
        6. verlander
        7. hamels
        8. lincecum
        9. cain
        10. hanson
        11. josh johnson
        12. price
        13. lester
        14. buchholz
        15. jurjens
        16. haren
        17. weaver

        • Cris Pengiuci

          And which of these pitchers on your list are available?

          • infernoscurse

            none , thats why i dont make any trade even at the cost of post season play, the point isnt whos a top 10 pitcher available , the comment was ubaldo was a top 10 pitcher which is a false

            • Ted Nelson

              “the comment was ubaldo was a top 10 pitcher which is a false”

              According to fWAR it is TRUE. According to infernoscurse it is false. Who should I believe?

              • infernoscurse

                infernoscurse, of course

        • Ted Nelson

          “top 10 pitcher? for half a season of brilliance?”

          What is your opinion based on? According to fWAR Ubaldo has been the #9 pitcher in MLB since 2008, 2009, AND 2010 seasons started. There’s some credibility to fWAR. There’s no credibility to your arbitrary list.

  • Pastadivingarod

    His velo is already down for the season and he has had shoulder problems in the minors.
    He is not worth giving up the farm for AJ part 2
    No banualos no betance no montero anything else is open.

    • Crime Dog

      Then no Ubaldo.
      I don’t get why people are comparing him to AJ

      • CS Yankee

        Agreed, he is a top 10 starter, AJ is a top 50 starter.

        Plus, Ubaldo has the best MLB ad on the air (where he is at a truck stop looking for a mini-license plate with his name…classic).

  • Pastadivingarod

    Ok
    Nunez nova gardner romine brackman
    That should get it done
    Nunez nova gardner are mlb ready nunez middle inf with power, gardy speed and lead off guy,nova good 3-4 guy with potental to be a solid 2-3
    Romine is a guy they could stick behind the plate for the next 6 years
    Brackman may be great with a change of clubs has all the tools
    Again this is not king felix

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Still not nearly enough for Colorado to get interested.

      • David, Jr.

        It would need to start with Hughes. They are going to want a proven starter, not all prospects.

        Also, no way we give up Gardner. Who do we put out there? Andrew Jones? Hahahahahahaha.

        • FIPster Doofus

          Beltran?

  • Pastadivingarod

    Top ten
    Felix
    Cc
    Doc
    Lee
    Verlander
    Price
    Lester
    Weaver
    Lirano
    Gonzales

    • Pastadivingarod

      Forgot
      Johnson
      Lincum
      He is not a top ten

      • Ted Nelson

        What is that based on?

        Liriano is top 10? Top 10 what?

        Based on fWAR, he has been #9 in MLB since the start of 2008, the start of 2009, AND the start of 2010.

      • Bill

        And Kershaw. Although Liriano has no business being in the top 10. And Ubaldo is closer than Gonzalez. Ubaldo is just outside the top 10 in my book.

  • http://none Favrest

    Is he better than Ivan Nova right now? No.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      He absolutely is.

      Ubaldo: 4.14 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 3.59 xFIP, 8.19 K/9, 3.51 BB/9, 0.69 HR/9

      Nova: 4.12 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 4.22 xFIP, 5.01 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, 0.88 HR/9

      It’s not even close.

  • Crime Dog

    The fact that anyone thinks Nova is better than Ubaldo is absurd. That’s like saying Greg Golson is better than Nick Swisher…

    • David, Jr.

      Somebody will. Where is monteroisdinero?

      • David, Jr.

        Who is one of the best posters, by the way.

  • a.hinds

    you guys are fucking nuts. where’s the question? really? do you remember watching schilling and beckett going to boston and wondering why we have not done anything close to that in the last 10 years?

    good pitching always beats good hitting, always. this is a fact. think of pitching as defense, defense always wins. offense is fun and its nice to see guys hit homers but in the post season you need pitching, elite pitching. this is what ubaldo is. bottom line. the guy pitches half his games at coors field. go look at his home road splits. he’s bonafide.

    if the deal includes montero, batances and nova as a beginning who gives a shit, trade them now. jump on this. he is cheep and young. this is the josh johnson, kershaw, timmy tim jam type we have been dreaming about around here.

    STOP HUGGING PROSPECTS! this is what you use them for. big fucking names. the rockies are making a mistake. lets capitalize, he seems like the only ace they have ever had in close to 20 years at coors field, lets get him. lets get him.

    i wouldn’t be comfortable giving both betances and banuelos along with Jesus, but i don’t think the yankees would do that. but even if they do… whatever, baseball goes on. the yankees go on. this franchise always lands on its feet. id rather risk the greatness of ubaldo than stay safe and watch the growing pains of our elite prospects.

    and it would be exciting to see what rothschild supposedly k oriented approach would do to ubaldo low (considering his stuff) k rates.

    • Ted Nelson

      “you guys are fucking nuts.”

      Given the rest of your comment this was a really ironic way to start.

    • David, Jr.

      STOP HUGGING PROSPECTS! You wouldn’t give up Betances and Banuelos for a fucking big name?!??

  • a.hinds

    if your saying because i say questionable stuff i can’t point out when others are saying questionable stuff thats silly. im aware my comments can be off color but saying that ubaldo and a.j. are somewhat alike is nuts. i wonder how people would feel if this was josh johnson

  • Jason

    I honestly agree with a.hinds I love the prospects the Yankees have in the farm right now but we are talking about a real ace in Ubaldo. I feel like Mike always points out the fact that there’s a very low percentage that any of our prospects will turn into future All Stars so why not send some for a front line, low cost, young, All Star starter. In the case of an NL pitcher coming to the AL East I think he’ll be fine his stuff is that nasty plus most players in the AL have never seen him or his stuff before which will only benefit him while he adjusts to a new league.

    Montero, Betances, Mesa, Warren, Nova

    • X-62

      Yeah, I have been called a prospect hugger many times but that’s because I’m usually against big name rentals or pitchers in their 30’s but for a guy like Jimenez a pitcher with great stuff in his 20’s who has pitched in COL for years and had sucess I pull the trigger and go all in. If COL still says no to a massive offer then you move on.

      • Jason

        Exactly, throw out an offer like the one I mentioned above maybe a little less since you know they’ll come back with a counter offer. If what they want gets out of hand let him go somewhere else or stay with COL. We’ve been saying the Yankees need a legit #2 starter well this would be even better! Could you imagine lining up C.C. and Ubaldo games 1 and 2 in October with the Yankees offense. Hopefully this dream becomes a reality.

        • CS Yankee

          This. People just don’t realize how good he is…he is an elite pitcher and if the Rox are looking for offers, we need to be in.

  • mojart

    montero,hughes,brackman,betances,warren and vasquez for king felix!or montero,nova,noesi and phelps for ubaldo….get it done cashman!

  • Need A #2 Starter

    Sign me up for Ubaldo, I don’t trust that Bartolo is going to a be good number STarter in the playoffs, Ubaldo is an ace, he has pitched much better recently we need to make this move if we can

  • Tomcat

    Rockies fan here with a few thoughts

    Ubaldos velocity was at 97-98 at the end of spring training, the week of opening day he had an infected cut on his right thumb at the point where he grips his four seamer. In his opening day start he was hitting 91-92 with his four seam FB and was grimacing visibly on every pitch. After the DL stint he had some bad luck combined with a velocity that was sitting around 92 in early June, he has been working back up his velo, hitting 98 repeatedly in his last two starts.

    I doubt the Rockies move Ubaldo, although this the same team that moved Holliday when the right package came along.

  • Chuck

    I would do what it takes to get Ubaldo. Sure the Killer B’s project to be really good, but honestly if they can hold onto Nova, Noesi, and Romine id say they should be fine. Id send the Killer B’s and Montero in a second. There are no free agent pitchers worth the money coming up.

    I see it this way. Have an awesome rotation now or in 2 years. The difference… Jeter, Arod, Texeira, Cano, Granderson, and all the other players will be a few years older… The DH position isnt exactly free after Jorge retires.

    Call me crazy but I think Cashman should have a win now mentality.