Open Thread: Labor Day

September 5, 2011 by Michael Axisa 199 Comments

montero celebrate — Mitre with the photobomb. (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

On the day in which we celebrate America’s workforce, the pitchers sure labored in this afternoon’s game. Twenty-one runs and 29 hits between the two teams combined, including Jesus Montero‘s first two career homers and Robinson Cano‘s third grand slam of the season. Scott Proctor even made his glorious return to pinstripes. Fun game to watch on the unofficial end of summer.

Anyway, here’s your open thread for the night. The Mets are playing the Marlins, and MLB Network will carry a game as well (teams depend on where you live). Feel free to talk about whatever your heart desires here.

Karl Krawfid

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play......d=18870707

Sterling and Kay’s call on Montero’s home runs.
- pete
  
  the 2nd one was on a pitch down and away with a little movement too. Impressive shit.
  - Zach
    
    An amazing display of seemingly effortless power.
    - http://www.simdynasty.com/index.jsp?refer=Jeety Jeety
      
      Proof postive that Jesus walks among us… lol
      
      In all seriousness the kid is as advertised in this small sample we have seen… Can’t wait to see more.
    - CountZero
      
      The Lee no-trade may end up as one of those historic moments. I know, I know — it’s less than 20 ABs, but that second HR was impressive in terms of pitch location and flat out oppo field power. It’s just not normal to take a pitch at the knees on the outside corner and drive it 390 feet the other way. That was almost frightening.
Wrath Hannd of Prokchop

Were my doggs it!!?
http://twitter.com/Carlosologist_7 Carlosologist

I love Jesus.
- Phil Israminmyashard
  
  I love you Carlosologist.
Tyrion Lannister

Jesus Montero is everything we thought he would be. He will be on the postseason roster and will start postseason ballgames against lefties. He’ll be quite the weapon.
- http://twitter.com/rebeccapbp Asha Greyjoy
  
  A+ username
  
  (if you haven’t read the books don’t worry if you don’t know who Asha is)
  - Jon Targaryen
    
    ASOIAF ftw
  - AndrewYF
    
    It was just evil what Asha did to Theon. Not that he didn’t deserve it.
pat

http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com.....d=17807232

That second one was 94 mph and he went down and got it. Filthy.
- http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.
  
  Yeah, they kept saying on the radio that the second pitch was a slider. It wasn’t, unless he throws a 94 MPH slider. In which case his last name would be Strasburg or Chapman.
- Kiersten
  
  Wow, did they both go to the exact same spot? That second one was quite a shot on that pitch.
  - http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.
    
    Opposite field power like that from someone his age is very impressive. Most 21 year olds are still trying to pull everything. He’s not only making contact, but going yard.
deadrody

One observation on Montero, relative to the comparisons with Miguel Cabrera –

If you recall, the Cabrera first inning HR off Clemens in the WS was the same kind of opposite field shot as Montero hit (twice) today.

Just sayin’
deadrody

Oh, and neither of them today were cheapies, either.
- boogie down
  
  Yeah, 399 and 396 ft., respectively, according to ESPN.
posada is depressed

anyone else feel bad for posada?
- JobaWockeeZ
  
  He’s had a good long career with multiple championships and has been paid handsomely for it. So no.
- Kiersten
  
  As a general rule, I don’t feel bad for people who make more in an hour playing a game than I do in a year sitting in a cubicle.
  - Sarah
    
    +1
  - RollingWave
    
    unless they die in some tragic fashion… +1
- MikeD
  
  On some level, although not because Montero has arrived and hit two HRs today. More so as he knows his Yankee career is within weeks of ending. Confronting the end, or a chapter closing on one’s life that has been a great one, is going to bring some sadness.
  
  Hopefully Yankee fans recognize every AB of his in the coming weeks, because there are few left beyond a few DH start against righties and a pinch-hit appearance here or there. After the Orioles, I think the Yankees only have about seven or eight games left at home during the regular season. It appears his final regular season AB will be against the Red Sox, perhaps on Sunday, 9/25.
mbonzo

I was bored last night and decided to come up with an organizational ranking at this point in the season. I used 3 factors in deciding, ability to compete now, ability to add to payroll, and the strength of their farm system and scouting. Who would you guys switch around?

1. Yankees- Some teams on this list are calculated by how well they can compete now, how well they can add payroll, and their ability to acquire free agents, they Yankees are the complete tools package in that sense. No more one dimensional front office throwing money at player’s over their prime, this is now the richest and one of the smartest clubs in the game.

2. Red Sox- There is a case to be made that they’re the best team in baseball, and with the length of current contracts and large payroll, they will be dominant for the next decade. Their one fault is the farm system, which was largely depleted in acquiring Adrian Gonzalez, but you’ll still find some players in the top 100 which means Epstein and co. have no lack of scouting.

3. Braves- If you were to compare them to another team, they would be the Yankees’ little brother. They have the 3 tools to get on the list, money, farm, and a winning team, but aside from the farm, they will never approach the payroll of the Red Sox or Yankees.

4. Rays- They may have the best farm system in baseball with the Royals losing prospects to their major league roster. In any other AL division, the Rays would be competing for first place in 2011. They lack any sort of payroll flexibility that approaches the other big organizations, but they should still be huge competitors in the future.

5. Phillies- They rank #1 in their ability to compete now, they have the best NL team to put on the field, and unlike the Red Sox and Yankees, they only have to deal with 1 other top 5 organization in their division. Their faults at this point are limit in payroll flexibility and the depleted farm. They should be big competitors for the next 4-5 years, after which is hard to speculate on.

6. Blue Jays- This is the fourth AL East team, and certainly one that I could have ranked higher. Their team is already competing with very young players entering their prime. They have one of the best farm systems in the game and have a ton of money coming off the books. I don’t expect them to compete with the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays next year, but come 2013 free agent market, they could easily be contenders and even force the MLB to re-examine the divisions.

7. Rangers- They have the farm system and clearly best the AL West, but I don’t take their payroll talk seriously. They’re approaching a point where they need to start resigning stars, and the Arlington market isn’t the biggest in the game, so questions on the extent of payroll flexibility keeps them out of the top 5 teams.

8. Giants- If the Giants can keep their starting pitchers signed they will give the Phillies’ Aces a run for their money, over the next few years. The questions are always about their offense, and with some budding outfield and corner prospects coming up, the Giants should be competitors for as long as they can keep good starting pitchers in that huge ballpark.

9. Angels- The Angels have made what I’ll lightly call “controversial” decisions over the last couple of years. Still, they project to be losing around $100m in payroll by 2013, and with the prospects raking, they have a very bright future for one of the seemingly older teams in the league.

10. Nationals- The NL East is a tough division, but the lifespan of the Phillies’ success is far from guaranteed. By the time their prospects start hitting, they’ll be eyeing the Braves as the bigger rival. Even if they don’t all succeed, some of Strasburg, Harper, and Rendon will be stars on a team that includes Zimmerman and Werth.

11. Rockies
12. Indians
13. Reds
14. Twins
15. Pirates
16. Royals
17. Tigers
18. Cardinals
19. White Sox
20. Brewers
21. Mariners
22. Dodgers
23. Orioles
24. Mets
25. Diamondbacks
26. Athletics
27. Marlins
28. Cubs
29. Padres
30. Astros
- dnosaur
  
  yeah
  - pete
    
    hahaha
- wilcymoore27
  
  Interesting … nice work.
- Januz
  
  There is no way Arizona deserves to be ranked where they are, nor do the Tigers. Conversely, the Indians are too highly ranked. The won on smoke and mirrors alone, then raped the farm system for Jiminez. Does anyone think Cashman looks brilliant for not trading Nova (And others) for Jiminez? Heck, Nova for Jiminez straight up would have been a great trade for Colorado.
- http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse
  
  I applaud your work. It must have taken some time for you to think this out and construct this. Kudos.
- Jimmy McNulty
  
  Four AL East teams in the top ten is sort of a realistic impossibility, sure in a vacuum I’d agree with you. However, one of the other two teams won’t be able to sustain their success. The Diamondbacks probably deserve a bit more credit than you’re giving them, I mean they just went balls out in the draft signing two top five talents. They can probably draw more fans if the team starts winning, and they finally have a player in Justin Upton to market. Now, on the flipside you’re putting way too much stock into Harper, Rendon, and Strassberg. The Nationals may have an exciting future in stock, or Rendon can battle injuries, Harper can go all Ryan Leaf, and Strassburg might be Mark Prior v. 2.0. I don’t see why they rank higher than a team like the Rockies who is committed to developing players, has shown a large degree of success developing players, and is committed keeping their brightest stars.
  
  The Indians always seem to be darlings of the SABR communities, but a lot of the old guard is on the way out. Choo looks awful, Hafner is cooked, and Grady probably doesn’t have much left in the tank. They may have a deeper farm and “smarter” management, but you’re putting an awful lot of pressure on Santana, Kippins, Cabrera, and Masterson ranking them that highly. The Tigers’ core of Verlander and Cabrera has been excellent for years and shows no sign of stopping anytime soon. They also have shown willingness to spend money in a down economy whereas the Indians have been notoriously cheap lately.
  
  The Angels? Ehh…I dunno, a great 1/2 punch at the top of the rotation. Mike Trout has already five ML career HRs despite turning 20 less than a month ago, but what else do they have? They basically traded Mike Napoli for Vernon Wells, contracts aside that’s still an enormously stupid decision. Just when you think they’re done making terrible decisions they’ll go ahead and do something like that. I’d definitely put the Rox over them.
  
  The Giants…wow, where to start. First off, let me just say that they have the potential to be one of the best teams in baseball. Big fanbase, ownership that’s willing to spend, and a good core in place. However, they seem to have some sort of an aversion to scoring runs. I know they’ll get Posey back but they’ll need more than just that. I don’t know if throwing 100M at Jose Reyes is the answer, but they need quite a bit of work on offense.
  
  The Yankees and Red Sox, they’re realistically neck and neck, slight edge to the Yankees because they still carry the big stick. However, they shouldn’t be this close. There Red Sox farm was depleted in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, but they have a few guys from last year’s draft class that are taking steps towards refilling that farm system, and they spent 11M on this year’s draft class. So they’ll be right back in the thick of things after acquiring one of the best players in the game in his prime. That isn’t the way it should be, though. The Yankees have FAR more resources than the Red Sox do, and they should be crushing them, and the rest of baseball, in every aspect of the game. Instead, the Yankees have gone cheap on the recent drafts, and there’s scuttle butt that the Yankees have some of the shortest scouting staffs in the majors? Please. I’m not criticizing any individual pick that the Yankees have made in the past few years, is what I am criticizing is going cheap on the draft and spending right around league average, or even below it, and instead spending 8M for a reliever that won’t throw 50 innings for you and 35M dollars on a middle reliever who is realistically the third best reliever on your team, and possibly even the 4th. Don’t get me wrong, there’s nothing that says that name brand drafts guarantee you success, but it pisses me off to see the team go cheap in the draft yet go out and spend big money, and draft picks, on marginal pieces. From 2007-2011 the Red Sox have spent 44M on draft bonuses and the Yankees have spent 33.7, that’s the reason why the Red Sox are able to keep up with the Yankees, because the Yankees let them.
  - Sarah
    
    I think (hope?) the Giants are a bit scared of big contracts after the Rowand and Zito contract situation. But boy do they need help on offense. I wish there were some FA options besides Jose Reyes on the market for SS, ’cause that’s a big need and he seems a risky choice.
    
    But with Posey, Belt and Sandoval, plus the pitching, there’s a lot of upside there. Did you see Bumgarner today? 13Ks, 8 1/2 innings. So much talent.
    - mbonzo
      
      I have a feeling Gary Brown will be ranked in the top 25 from BA this year. Quite a few interesting offensive bats in that system.
      - Sarah
        
        I’ve heard that about Brown, and there’s much clamor among fans to bring him up, but he’s only in High A (maybe Low A?), so I think he’s a long ways from the big club.
        
        The one I wish had bigger upside is Brandon Crawford. He’s such a good defensive SS, it’s too bad he’s not much of a hitter. If he could hit even league average, I think the Giants wouldn’t need to look to FA for a SS.
  - The Fallen Phoenix
    
    Yankees actually spent higher than average on their 2011 draft, relative to drafting position. They didn’t rank in the upper half of draft signings largely because they lacked a first round pick, and failed to sign their second round pick. They were still going above-slot well into the second and third draft rounds.
    - Jimmy McNulty
      
      Their first pick was a guy who’d sign for slot money or there abuts, and they stayed away from huge guys that would need a lot of money to stay away from college. What was their largest bonus that they gave out? Jake Cave at a million? I’m not saying they’re doing a bad job, I’m saying that they should be doing a better job.
  - Januz
    
    I am not pleased with their drafting, however the Yankees have never done well in the Draft. Since the draft came in, they have exactly ONE guy they drafted that is a Hall of Famer (Derek Jeter), and four others that are close to but not quite Hall of Famers (Munson, Posada, Pettite, and Fred McGriff). By comparison, the Red Sox have done much better. Rice, Fisk, Clemens, Boggs, and Bagwell. However, over the same time span, the Yankees won seven titles to Boston’s two. One more point, we have to take a wait and see approach to the draft. For example: They may have drafted and signed a guy (Mason Williams) who might be one of the top five players to come out of the 2010 draft (Calis ranks him 5th in the organization already).
    - Reg
      
      Oh so mariano Rivera isn’t a HOF
      - Rick
        
        IFA
    - MikeD
      
      Rating a team’s farm and drafting strategy based on eventual HOFers is faulty. Too much luck (bad and good) when it comes to a guy being a good player to a very good player to a great player. (Mattingly doesn’t blow out his back, he’s a HOFer). There are other ways of rating the quality of players from a team, including overall WAR produced by players making the major leagues.
      
      Second, the Yankees overall talent approach can NOT be reviewed without including IFAs. Like all teams they have a budget, and they are directing a higher percentage of that money toward international signings where they are not restricted by the draft. They can produce more bang for the dollar with IFAs.
      
      Third, a high percentage of HOFers come from the top end of the draf, and the lower you go, the less HOFers. Makes sense. How did the Yankees draft Derek Jeter? They sucked, that’s how. You don’t get a Derek Jeter unless you happen to be “lucky” enough to lose 92 or so games. And even then, your team might be lucky enough to really suck when Bryce Harper’s available, or it might really suck when Matt Bush is available. Then there’s the bad luck part again. Your team might draft a lefty pitcher who throws 100 mph, and then said lefty pitcher who throws 100 mph decides to get in a bar fight, wrecking his shoulder while still in AA, thank you very much Brein Taylor. He might not have amounted to a hill of beans, or the thirty-nine-year old might still be holding down one of the five rotation spots in the Yankee rotation, being treated to the same loving cheers as Jeter, Rivera, Posada, Williams and Pettitte. Go back over the Yankees history since the draft and see how many losing seasons they’ve had. It’s pretty amazing. Even during the dark periods, such as 1965-1975, the Yankees have very few losing seasons. That’s the good thing about being a Yankee fan. Even bad seasons usually lead to winning records. The downside if lower draft picks.
      
      Fourth, to stay really good, the Yankees will sign free agents and lose draft picks. For the most part this is an excellent approach since superstar free agents will produce far more value than almost any amateur pick. The Yankees failure though, at times, has been signing mediocre free agents and then also losing draft picks. Signing a Reggie or a Goosage or a Winfield or a Teixeira or a CC is good. Signing a Dave Collins or dare I say Soriano is a bad thing.
      
      Last (and here’s where we’ll agree), the Yankees under George Steinbrenner had large stretches of ignoring the farm system (and who knows what was happening under the CBS years), or even when they didn’t ignore the farm system, taking the good players on the farm and trading quality away for a bunch of crap. Think of the 1980s and giving up Buhner and McGree and Drabek and Tewksbury and McGriff. OMG, McGriff might have hit almost 600 HRs if he stayed a Yankee and played at the Stadium, which gets back to why it’s faulty to judge a system just on HOFers.
      
      Yankee fans seemingly want to have a team of superstars that has the lowest payroll in baseball. It doesn’t work that way. There’s going to be a balance, and the “downside” of being a Yankee fan if we won’t get as many young studs. The good news is under Cashman they clearly are putting more of a focus on the farm, which is why it was ranked so high last year, and we are seeing more young players coming up to the team. Just don’t expect Strasburg and Harper and the likes to be among them, since the Yankees are way too good to get them at the start, unless they can find them on the international market.
      
      Welcome to the Yankees, Mr. Montero.
- Will in NJ
  
  I would personally rank the DBacks A LOT higher, as they have an absolutely filthy group of young pitchers in AA coming up to add to an already young and promising rotation. Plus they have young offensive talent, and are already leading the NL west by 7 games so they can definitely compete now
  - mbonzo
    
    I think its fair to move them up, but putting aside this years draft, Parker, Skaggs, and Davidson are pretty much their whole farm system. If this years draft class pans out well, they may be above average, but they were certainly below average approaching the beginning of the 2011 season.
    
    Their current team is not that impressive when you put them outside of the NL West. They’ve won based on pitching in big ballparks, Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson project to be #2/#3 starters, but beyond that is Joe Saunders and Josh Collmenter who I have no faith in. Offensively, Montero and Upton are the only 2 guys I would be afraid of facing. The rest of the lineup is AAAA guys (Juan Miranda and Ryan Roberts) and players who never reached their ceiling (Stephen Drew and Chris Young).
    
    All of this coupled with the lack of payroll flexibility means I can’t expect much from them in the future. I don’t expect them to be a .400 team next year, but I don’t see a foreseeable year when I can say they will be even the best team in their division, including this year.
    - Jimmy McNulty
      
      Paul Goldschmidt doesn’t count? Keep in mind they have a new GM that’s taking the team in a new direction. Do I expect them to make the playoffs next year? Probably not, but I do think that they are on the right track and probably should be in the top 20.
- Sweet Dick Willie
  
  I don’t expect them (the Blue Jays) to compete with the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays next year,
  
  I don’t know their financial flexibility, but if they sign Prince this off-season, I think they will compete in the AL East next year.
CBean

Oh god I’d forgotten Mitre was still on the team.
- Mickey Scheister
  
  He’s def a herpe in that pic, just when you think they gone…BOOM, all ugly looking in the picture. Very unfortunate.
http://twitter.com/rebeccapbp Asha Greyjoy

ICWUDT, Bexy

http://www.baseball-reference......je01.shtml
- Pat D
  
  Awesomeness.
Jonathan

I’m biased since I’m from SD and have followed the team closely over the years, but I think they should be a borderline top 20 team. Only a few real assets: Latos, Headley, Maybin, Rizzo, Kelly, but theyre all cost controlled and the Pads have ZERO payroll drag if we assume they let Bell walk after the season. That plus a relatively new ballpark puts them ahead of the O’s, Cubs, Stros, Mets, Dodgers, and White Sox–teams with bloated payrolls, barren farm systems and crumby present talent. I’d give em the edge over the Marlins due to Loria and the A’s because of the Stadium crisis. Also think the D-Backs should be higher. Playoff team with Justin Upton shouldn’t be in the bottom 6th. Otherwise, I like what you’ve done here.
- Januz
  
  The Orioles may very well be right on the bottom with the Astros. They have a horrible owner, no farm system, bad pitching, and compete in the AL East. Today was a perfect example of this. The Yankees, played one of their worst games all season, and yet, the Birds, found a way to lose (Their best hitter JJ Hardy striking out with runners in scoring position, against an obviously, not himself Mariano Rivera).
http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

http://yfrog.com/message/threa.....2132067328

Just wanted to share this with you folks. Its from Marc Simon’s Twitter (BTW-great follow) its an iSO heat map for Curtis Granderson facing lefties this year and last year. If you’re having any trouble viewing it for some reason, its the also open thread over at TYA.

Basically, if you’re a lefty and you don’t want Curtis to crush you, you better bust him down and in or up and in. Anywhere else, and you’re screwed.
Paul

Who was that red-headed guy who hit a lot of homers in September about a decade ago?
- http://twitter.com/rebeccapbp Asha Greyjoy
  
  Shane Spencer?
  - http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.
    
    Yeah, and for the people who were throwing out his name and Kevin Maas, they’re way off. Neither of those guys were as young as Montero and neither was highly regarded as a prospect. Maas was 25 and Spencer 26, and as far as I know neither made the BA top 100. Though I’m not even sure of BA was around when Maas was playing.
- Brian S.
  
  Someone who was not nearly as highly touted as Jesus Montero.
- AndrewYF
  
  How crazy must that have been, as if the 1998 Yankees really needed any more help.
Jesus Freak

Can you imagine the amount of attention and acclaim Montero would be getting if he was a Red Sox.
- http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse
  
  He’d be in the Hall of Fame by now.
- BK2ATL
  
  They already tried that with the Lavarnway kid…..
  - MannyGeee
    
    and Casey Kelly, and Lars Anderson, and Jose Iglesias, and Papelboner, and Daniel Bard….
    
    trend much?
Zooboy

He has Risen!
dennis

It was so nice for Seattle to get greedy and then decide on Smoak over Montero. Enjoy losers ahahahhahahha.
- dnosaur
  
  +1
- http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa
  
  Montero hit more homers today than Smoak has since the middle of June (about 200 PA).
  - Pants Lendelton
    
    That’s cold… Ice Cold.
    - boogie down
      
      Not “super cold,” though, so Coors Light still wins.
      - FIPster Doofus
        
        Not colder than me. I win.
        
        Regards,
        
        Ice Cube
      - Chops
        
        +1
- http://twitter.com/johnSC2000 JohnnyC
  
  The key to that trade was that the Yankees didn’t have an available convicted felon to pair with a Smoak-type bat…obviously Texas did.
  - BK2ATL
    
    Wasn’t it something like a rape crime too?
    
    Oh well, glad we still have Jesus, Nunez and whoever else was in the package, for what played out to be just a 2 month rental.
    - Bryan
      
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josh_Lueke
      
      One word to Seattle scouting – Google.
http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

So now we have Mo, we have Jesus, so who is the Holy Ghost?
- Rick
  
  Proctor? Igawa?
- MattG
  
  I’m going literal, and taking the Boss.
  - boogie down
    
    Nice.
  - http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.
    
    Mo, Jesus and the Holy George.
    
    Sounds like a T-Shirt.
- dennyneagleshooker
  
  kei igawa? lol
- http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ Xstar7
  
  Chad Curtis
- http://twitter.com/AnaMariana42 Ana
  
  Jorge.
  
  /he is dead’d
- MannyGeee
  
  A-Rod is the holy ghost… because he has totally fucking disappeared.
dkidd

as of today, rangers and tigers are tied in the column

yanks might win the division and still get texas
- dkidd
  
  loss column
- Jimmy McNulty
  
  The more I think about Detroit the more I fear Verlander/Fister/Scherzer.
  - AndrewYF
    
    Fear the ‘ers!
theyankeewarrior

Jesus works on labor day.
JobaWockeeZ

So if the season ends today what is your playoff rotation?
- Tyrion Lannister
  
  CC
  Nova
  Garcia
  Colon
  
  That’s a 5 game series. 7 game series I might go CC for 3 times and work the other 3 in games 2,3,5 and 6.
  - http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse
    
    Agreed 100%
MattG

Nice game by Montero.

I’ve been thinking about this. Lots of players have come out of the minors with iffy plate discipline and big power. Montero, for all his awesome potential, does own an unsightly career 159/336 BB/K ratio. History will tell us that he will either develop better discipline, or fail at the big league level. The only player I can really find that had a great career without improving their plate discipline is Juan Gonzalez.

It’s pretty unlikely Montero becomes the next Gonzalez, I think, so, does he improve his plate discipline, becoming Miguel Cabrera, or not, becoming Brandon Wood?
- http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa
  
  Montero’s strikeout rate isn’t terrible though. Triple-A this year was the first time he was over 18%. Wood’s strikeout rate was through the roof in the minors, more than 24% most years.
  - MattG
    
    Excellent point.
    
    So now I am looking for a player who reached the majors sometime around his 22nd birthday, struck out 18% or less of his minor league at bats, walked 9% or less, and slugged around .500, and see what they did in the majors. And maybe I should through in defensive deficiencies.
    
    Gonzalez and Cabrera both qualify. Plenty more of those guys, right?
    - forensic
      
      How about Vlad Guerrero? I don’t feel like doing the calculations, but it seems he’d be pretty close by not walking/K’ing much.
  - Bryan
    
    Miguel Cabrera’s mL walk/strikeout numbers are comparable to Montero’s.
    
    http://www.baseball-reference......brer003jos
- AndrewYF
  
  Miguel Cabrera > Juan Gonzalez. A little less power, but much better on-base skills. Also probably won’t get injured quite so much, pending his alcoholism.
- MikeD
  
  Nothing to be concerned about. Scouting reports and talent evaluators have all indicated the Montero has a good feel for the strikezone.
  
  Let’s remember how young he is, and considering his age, he’s already showed decent command coming out of AAA. As someone already noted, his K/BB rate are similar to Miguel Cabrera’s in the minors. No way he’s a JuanGone, swing-at-everything type of hitter.
  
  It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Montero becomes a hitter who walks and strikes out 80 times a year once he fully develops.
I Voted 4 Kodos

Has Saltalamacchia whined about Lawrie’s home run trot yet? It looked very Latin to me.
- Sarah
  
  Only if he clapped after he touched home plate.
  - I Voted 4 Kodos
    
    He did a hell of a lot more than that.
    - Sarah
      
      The real question is: was it a gritty home run? If it displayed adequate grit, Salty thinks it is ok to celebrate.
Jesus Freak

Rumors on Extra Bases are that Beckett is done for the year. He’s returning to Boston for 2nd opinion, but looks like you can stick a fork into him.

http://www.boston.com/communit.....01124dad1e
- MattG
  
  “It’s always concerning. That’s my power leg. With the way I pitch, if you cut my leg off I don’t think I can pitch.”
  
  Pretty good assumption, that, Josh.
  - Sarah
    
    That Josh Beckett is a smart guy. He thinks he can’t pitch with only one leg. They sure do grow them smart down here in Texas.
- boogie down
  
  And the plot thickens…
- Tyrion Lannister
  
  That’s too bad. Even if he’s only out a couple weeks they’ve got to plug in some scrub. They’ve already got Wakefield, Lackey, and Miller, how many scrubs can they throw out there? Bedard’s hurt too and they say the Yankees have pitching problems.
- JobaWockeeZ
  
  That link said nothing. Plus Beckett was able to stand by himself. He might miss a couple weeks or something but he’ll be back in the postseason.
  - MattG
    
    This. Even if they have to surgically attach Curt Shilling’s ankle.
    - JobaWockeeZ
      
      And then they’ll lose game one but win game six.
      /fuck2004
  - http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse
    
    Yep. I think it was a fan that said Beckett may miss the season. And he misspelled rumor. The person who commented spelled it “roomer”, haha.
- http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse
  
  Say he does miss the rest of the season, and say they get swept in the ALDS, you’ll hear ESPN and everyone in Red Sox Nation cry that they suffered through injuries.
  - steve (different one)
    
    I can live with that trade-off…
    - http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse
      
      So can I, but c’mon, when your team loses take it like I man. I’ve always done that with the Yankees.
  - Sarah
    
    God. I don’t think I could stand it, especially when I think about how San Francisco has been just wrecked with injuries. Shut up Red Sox nation.
    - AndrewYF
      
      The only reason the modern day Red Sox ever lose is because they get racked with historic amounts of injuries. Missing the playoffs in 2006 and 2010 was due solely to bad luck.
      
      Also, the Yankees are always healthy and even if they aren’t with their payroll they have no excuses.
      - Sarah
        
        I mean, obviously.
- Tom Zig
  
  I’d wait before claiming Beckett is done for the year. The commenter who wrote that can’t even spell rumor correctly.
- http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.
  
  Plan the parade.
DERP

The University of Miami is about to get killed. Maryland uniforms are awesome.
boogie down

I’m wondering if Girardi will consider starting Montero tomorrow against a righty. Taking today’s performance into account, Girardi can’t say that Montero doesn’t look good against same-handed pitchers, so far.
- Tyrion Lannister
  
  I think he’ll like to get Chavez back in there. He could play Chavez at 3rd or 1st as he stated he would rest at least one starter every game. Could be Alex’s turn to sit. The regular outfield will be playing, Jeter just had a day off. They might DH Jesus but more likely Chavez or Posada.
- http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse
  
  He’ll start tomorrow, Girardi would be a fool if he didn’t. So far he’s earning AB’s. If he hits, why bench the hot bat?
- Karl Krawfid
  
  Would like to see if Girardi would have him catch Nova Thursday :)
  - Brian S.
    
    But…can he call as good a game as Martin!?!?! I mean, Russ is the only reason our starting pitchers have outperformed expectations this year!
- MikeD
  
  Girardi is going to look for opportunities to keep his bench fresh, so it wouldn’t shock me if Chavez or Posada got the start. It also wouldn’t surprise me if he goes with Montero after his big day.
  
  My guess, though, is Montero sits.
Monteroisdinero

All these old guy$ blocking Montero from playing everyday. We really won’t see what he can do for awhile. His bat needs to be in EVERY game.

Joe should just come out and say it and let everyone else deal with it.
- MattG
  
  Yeah, or, he could not say anything and let everybody else deal with that, too.
Brian S.

So Texas is tied with Detroit in the loss column. We might win the division and still play Texas in the first round.
- Karl Krawfid
  
  Or Anaheim. They are only 2 back of Texas.
- http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.
  
  I don’t mind that. I’d rather play Texas than see Verlander twice in a 5 game set.
  - Brian S.
    
    I think we match up nicely with Texas myself. We crush lefty pitching this season, and their three best pitchers are Wilson, Harrison, and Holland. I would hate to lose another postseason series against them though, their fanbase would troll the fuck out of us.
    - http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.
      
      You can’t think like that. The Yanks are a better team this year. Better lineup, better rotation and (I think) better bullpen. But with the additions of Adams and Gonzalez, that bullpen might be on par or better right now. That said, I still like our chances.
      - MannyGeee
        
        no way, that team is nowhere as good as they were in 2010. their entire staff was pitching over their heads last season (save for Cliff Lee who has had NYYs number for years)…
        
        I would not be extremely opposed to seeing TX in October and let Boston deal with Detroit first (I think Boston is not matching up well against them TBH…)
    - Tyrion Lannister
      
      We’ve had success vs Texas this year. We’ve gotten to Ogando and Holland whenever we’ve faced them. They have a better lineup than Detroit but I think we can beat either one and I’m not really scared of either. They should be scared of facing CC twice and going against our lineup in a 5 game series.
      - Sarah
        
        I think lefties have a decent amount of success against Ogando, and of course there is the tale of two Hollands. Also, both these guys are at 3x as many innings this year as last year, and one of their arms could fall off at any point.
      - Brian S.
        
        I don’t think they will start Ogando. He has already thrown 100 more innings than his previous career high this season.
        
        Sarah
        
        You think they’d roll with Wilson, Lewis and Harrison in October?
        
        Brian S.
        
        Wilson, Harrison, Holland, and Lewis/Feldman.
    - MikeD
      
      Outside of last year’s playoffs, the Rangers have never been able to beat the Yankees, in the regular season or the postseason.
      
      They don’t have Cliff Lee this year.
      
      The Yankees are the better team.
      
      Meanwhile, the Rangers seem to have the Red Sox’s number. Baseball is a strange game.
Brian S.

So there is like zero chance Soriano opts out of his contract huh? No one here thinks he could do better than 2-25 on the open market? And if he stays, shouldn’t Joba come back as a starting pitcher? Becuase with Soriano, D-Rob, and Mo next year Joba would provide little to no value out of the bullpen.
- http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.
  
  Brain Cashman laid this out at the FAN breakfast before the season.
  
  “If he stinks or gets hurt, he’ll be a Yankee. If he’s great, he’ll opt out.”
  
  He’s been hurt already, and hasn’t been great this year. So he’ll be a Yankee in 2012. Nobody will trump the 25 mil he has coming to him. Don’t forget, the contract was back loaded a bit.
  - Brian S.
    
    11 mil next year and 14 mil in 2013. I know. So wouldn’t it make sense for Joba to rehab as a starting pitcher then? We don’t need a sixth inning guy.
    - http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.
      
      As recently as a few weeks ago, I heard Girardi say (on his YES show)that “the organization views Joba as a reliever”. That dead horse will not be reexamined, despite what you or I may believe.
- mbonzo
  
  Assuming Joba or Hughes isn’t traded, I think we’re gonna see the same thing we saw in 2010, with the spring training battle for starting positions. The guaranteed spots go to:
  1. CC Sabathia
  2. AJ Burnett
  
  In the mix for the other 3 spots will be:
  1. Phil Hughes
  2. Joba Chamberlain
  3. Ivan Nova
  4. Andrew Brackman
  5. Hector Noesi
  6. David Phelps
  7. D.J. Mitchell
  - http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.
    
    On Joba, see my comment just above yours.
  - Brian S.
    
    lol Andrew Brackman. But I think you can pencil in CC-Nova-Hughes-AJ in right now for the 2012 rotation. In my dreams we win this year and AJ Burnett says fuck it and retires but he’s probably staying to troll us for two more years. I would like to see what Noesi could do in our rotation but with Burnett no longer a top of the rotation starter (he hasn’t been since 2008 when you look at his stats) the Yankees would probably opt to trade for somebody or make a run at Wilson or Darvish.
  - http://deleted Total Dominication
    
    Nova will have his spot garunteed. I bet Hughes will too if he does decently the rest of the year.
    - Mattchu12
      
      This.
      
      I expect CC-Nova-probably Wilson-Hughes-Burnett in 2012. Cash passes on Darvish after the Igawa fiasco, logical or not.
      - http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.
        
        I hope he passes, but I hope its has nothing to do with Igawa. I just think its stupid to pay 100+ mil for what is essentially a prospect playing at AA level competition, no matter how good he seems.
        
        Mattchu12
        
        After Dice-K, whom I wanted in pinstripes worse than I can ever recall wanting any potential acquisition, I have no idea what to expect from any player who strives in Japan.
        
        And that’s not just pitchers, it’s hitters too. Fukudome was praised as a Matsui/Ichiro hybird, and uh, well, just no. Not at all.
        
        So yeah, I wanna pass on Darvish because he’s going to be looking for front end money, and I’m just not down for that. But I really do think that Cash is scarred by the Igawa failure. He won’t bite.
  - steve (different one)
    
    Obviously so many things can happen between now and then, but right now, I’d call Nova a lock to start next year in the rotation.
    
    I’d also say Brackman, Phelps, and Mitchell have next to no chance.
  - Tyrion Lannister
    
    With what Nova has done this year he isn’t guaranteed? Who’s gonna surpass him with what he has shown that he can do for a full MLB season? He’s probably #2 on your list ahead of Burnett who most of us would like to see dumped in the Potomac.
  - Jorge
    
    I think Nova’s won himself the spot at this point. I also think there’s a decent shot Garcia’s back on a one-year deal, today’s performance notwithstanding.
    
    I think what we’re going to see is the same as 2011, not 2010. Cashman (yes, Cashman, since he is going nowhere) will look at the market, but not pull the trigger for the sake of pulling the trigger. It may very well be that Hughes/Garcia/Noesi/Mitchell/Phelps/Banuelos get to fight it out if the other options don’t look far and away better.
    - JobaWockeeZ
      
      If Garcia is back he better be at best the 4th starter. They’ve been extremely lucky this year and it’s best to not rely on that luck. If they have to overpay for CJ Wilson I’d dig it so they don’t give up Montero.
  - http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse
    
    Joba’s staying in the ‘pen.
  - your mom
    
    Adam Warren?
  - MikeD
    
    Joba will not be in the mix as a starter, especially coming off of TJ surgery. He may not even be effective for the first several months of the season as a reliever. Take a look at Joe Nathan this year, and he had his TJ surgery at the start of 2010, so he had a full year of recovery coming into 2011, and he wasn’t sharp at the start. Joba had his several months into the season, so he’ll only be nine or ten months in.
    
    Expectations should be low for Joba in 2012, especially at the start, and it’s possible he doesn’t even make the opening day roster.
    
    Nova will have one of the spots locked up.
    
    The Yankees have logjam of quality young pitchers now, something I can’t remember ever happening, but only a limited number of openings in the rotation and the pen. Nova, Hughes, Noesi, Joba, Mitchell, Phelps, Banuelos, Bentances and Brackman, and even Kontos.
    
    They are going to have to start placing bets on some of these guys, and packaging others to deal for other parts they need. It’s a good thing and a bad thing. I certainly don’t mind losing an IPK if the deal fills a need, such as bringing back a Granderson. That’s a good thing. None of us want to see them move Phil Hughes for a lefty specialist. That would be a bad thing!
    
    Not worried though. Cashman actually has been good at not overreacting and showing patience. I don’t expect that to change…unless he leaves.
- Mattchu12
  
  We all want Joba to come back as a starting pitcher whether Soriano is around or not, it’s just not in the cards since the Front Office will never let him try again. Joba should have come into 2011 as a starting pitcher with so much uncertainty in the rotation and they still kept him in the bullpen.
  
  It’s a pain that we’ll have to live with.
  - Jorge
    
    Everything they were afraid of happening has pretty much happened, except for blowing out his shoulder or something. At this point, it would make sense to just start from scratch and see if he fits best as a starter. I also agree there’s very little chance of that happening in pinstripes.
- boogie down
  
  Yeah, but that ship has sailed and fallen off the side of the earth, 1491-style.
  - Brian S.
    
    He’s only 25 years old though…
    - JobaWockeeZ
      
      Yeah but it’s not like teams are lining up to pay ten million dollars for someone who, if you’re really really lucky, will pitch 70-80 innings a season. And they also don’t want to give up a pick for this person, especially in this case. He missed a lot of the year to injury something that’s not uncommon to him.
      
      If Soriano has an amazing postseason he might be greedy but the Yankees overpaid by a longshot.
      - Brian S.
        
        If Soriano opts out I don’t think Cashman would offer him arbitration. I know I wouldn’t, and I’m a Brian, so I like to think that i know what he would do.
        
        MikeD
        
        If he opts out the Yankees should offer him arbitration. He’s not opting out and walking away from two more years to get a one-year deal in arbitration that might be less than what he’s already going to get since the deal with slightly backloaded.
        
        My guess is Soriano is back and he opts out after 2012. He’ll walk away from the last year of $14 million because he’ll get more than that on the open market. Perhaps not in a single season, but a three-year contract at $30 million is $16 million more in guaranteed money, and that’s what’s important.
        
        So we have one more year of Soriano and that’s it.
- JobaWockeeZ
  
  If he becomes 2007 postseason Papelbon he might walk.
Jorge

Have there been write-ups on why the Orioles have such a difficult time with their pitchers…..hell, prospects in general? Matusz, Britton, and Tillman are such better pitchers than what we’re seeing. Really, what is wrong with that organization?
- MikeD
  
  All their good young pitchers suffer a loss of velocity. Not sure why since they don’t seem to be overworking them, but if I’m the owner of the team, that’s what I want to understand and correct.
http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

While were all kicking around rotations for next year, it would make sense to see how much money is coming off the payroll:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tpQLwiiQL4kzEzLhsUqVjLQ&output=html

153 with CC on the books and Cano/Swishers options not picked up. Make it roughly 175 with all 3 back, another 5-10 for arb raises and you have about 20 mil to play with. Fill out a bench with veterans, 12-15.

Maybe we can sign one CJ Wilson type. But there won’t be some big spending spree this year.
- boogie down
  
  I really do think we’ll see a 2009-esque spending spree come 2012. A market with Hamels, Greinke, Cain, Danks among the pitchers and, if he keeps this up, Matt Kemp as the top overall FA is tailor-made for Yankee involvement. Add to that Swisher’s contract finishing and the lack of long-term stability in our rotation, and I’d be shocked if we don’t get two, possibly three of those five guys.
  
  As has been said here before, probably Hamels, Danks and Kemp. If Danks is the second pitcher, it’d make adding Kemp slightly more feasible, being that Danks will likely command less than Greinke and Cain.
Nogomo

Beckett seems to be out for the season. We’re 2.5 games up already, I smell the division. The way the offense has been playing I am starting to think the series is not out of reach by any means. I take back what I said earlier about not seeing the Yankees going all the way. I can see clearly now!
- Karl Krawfid
  
  Haven’t heard that about Beckett. Wait til tomorrow.
- Brian S.
  
  Out for the season? On an ankle sprain?
  - MannyGeee
    
    i am going to guess that Beckett does not come back until the playoffs.
http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

Arodys Vizcaino just gave up a bullet single to Cliff Lee, then missed giving up back to back HRs to Utley and Howard by about 5 feet a piece.
- http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse
  
  Bust!!!
  - http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.
    
    Can we still send Javy to the Braves and get him and Melky back?
Brett

Do you think there is any chance the Rays can catch up to the Red Sox?

Rays still have to play 7 games against the Red Sox, and if the Yankees are able to wrap up the division early (assuming Red Sox falters a bit – but Yankees still have to go West so not the easiest schedule), we may put our youngesters in to give players a rest.

The Yankees still play the Rays 6 times at the end of the year.
- Tyrion Lannister
  
  7 game lead with 21 to play. Sox go 11-10, Rays have to go 18-3 just to tie. Not likely. They’d have to either sweep the 7 HTH games or at least go 6-1. Even if they go 5-2 they only pick up 3 games. And as you mentioned, they still have quite a few games left against another superior opponent, us.
- http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse
  
  Well, they’re 7 back of Boston, sure that’s somewhat of a big deficit but not insurmountable, especially with their pitching. But, the Beckett injury is the Wild Card. Odds are he’ll miss his start on Saturday in Tampa. Let’s look at the pitching matchups the rest of this week with the Rays games and Red Sox games and predict the outcomes….
  
  Tuesday: Bos/Tor- Lester vs Perez & Tex/TB- Wilson vs Niemann
  
  Wednesday: Bos/Tor- Wakefield vs Morrow & Tex/TB- Holland vs Price
  
  Thursday: Bos/Tor- Miller vs Romero & Tampa Bay off
  
  Friday: Bos/TB- Weiland(I’m pretty sure he’s going) vs Davis
  
  Saturday: Bos/TB- Lackey vs Hellickson
  
  Sunday: Bos/TB- Lester vs Shields
  
  So looking at those matchups I’d say that Boston wins one or two more in Toronto, for the sake of argument let’s say one. With Tampa let’s say they win one against Texas in their next two. So with that in mind, the Rays would be an even 6 games back. Doesn’t sound like much now that there’s a three game series. And looking at the pitching matchups you can argue that the Rays sweep the Red Sox. Sure the pitching matchups don’t just tell the story, because the game is more than just the pitching matchups on paper, but you can make an argument that one week from now the Rays will be 3 games back of Boston in the Wild Card.
http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

“I’ve never had it happen before,” he said. “It’s something in my ankle, I’m not sure what,” Beckett said. “It’s always concerning. That’s my power leg. With the way I pitch, I don’t think I can cut my leg off. It’s definitely stiff.”

(snip)

“I felt it on the second-to-last pitch. It felt a little bit different on the last pitch I threw. It was bothering me,” Beckett said. “It felt like it was locked up and then like it popped in and out of socket or something.”

http://www.boston.com/sports/b.....turni.html

I’m no doctor, but it goes on to say he wasn’t on crutches and didn’t even have his ankle wrapped when he put on his cowboy boots. It doesn’t sound all that serious to me.
- Tyrion Lannister
  
  I agree. I don’t know where this out for the season is coming from. I’d at least wait for it to come from a reliable source before proclaiming he’d done for the year. Anybody can make up anything in the comments section of a website.
  - Hall and Nokes
    
    I just punched Derek Jeter right in the nose! He’ll be out a few days.
  - Slappy White
    
    fake bloody sock #2 ?
- http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse
  
  I say he misses a start for precautionary reasons.
Javierkei Pavagawa

I like Brett Gardner. He reminds me of a young Chad Curtis although with less power and hair.
- http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ Xstar7
  
  Brett Gardner >>>>> Chad Curtis
  - Javierkei Pavagawa
    
    Yeah Brett Gardner is kind of a rich man’s Carl Crawford just like Nick Swisher is a rich man’s Jayson Werth
    - http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ Xstar7
      
      Couldn’t have said it better myself.
- http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse
  
  Gardner reminds me of a young Homer Bush except Gardner isn’t black and can hit.
Karl Krawfid

Jesus Montero: 4th Yankee with multi-HR game before age 22, joining Joe DiMaggio (3 x at 21), Mickey Mantle (20) & Joe Pepitone (21).
- http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse
  
  Me likey company.
dc1874

Perfect game going to 9th inning Twins-White Sox game!!!
- Karl Krawfid
  
  Going to the 8th.
Javierkei Pavagawa

I don’t get why runs and RBIs are bad stats. If someone puts up so-so offensive numbers but has a lot of runs or RBIs doesn’t that tell you that they are in a lineup that is pretty productive? Likewise if someone puts up Bautista numbers but doesn’t have that many RBIs or runs doesn’t that mean that the rest of the offense sucks?
- JobaWockeeZ
  
  You answered your own question. In your example of Bautista, since he’s not putting epic RBI or runs numbers it tells us the rest of the team isn’t good. It doesn’t tell us how good Bautista is though.
  - Hall and Nokes
    
    Has anyone ever tried to make a stat out of the RBI opportunities a given player has (I.e., how often he has men on base, what base, and with how many outs? We talk about it so much, but I wonder if someone could actually show it with data.
    - http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse
      
      I was actually thinking the same thing just a couple days ago. Besides, I’m sure everyone gets the same amount of opportunity to drive in runs throughout the course of the season.
    - well you know
      
      http://www.baseballprospectus......cid=975547
      
      This shows the number of runners on base (at each base) presented to a batter during the course of the season and the number cashed in. The ranking of players is by OBI (others batted in) which subtracts home runs.
      
      There are other stats that break down production according to number of outs at the batter’s plate appearance.
Hall and Nokes

I wasn’t ready for a Zach Stewart perfect game.
Avi

Montero Monday.

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