May
03

David Phelps’ Big Chance

By

(Elsa/Getty Images)

It’s kinda funny how a few weeks ago, after the Yankees signed Andy Pettitte, there didn’t appear to be any room at the inn for guys like David Phelps, Adam Warren, and D.J. Mitchell. They were the numbers eight, nine, and ten starters in some order. Now we’re not even one full calender month into the season, and two of those guys are on the big league roster and one is scheduled to start tonight’s game. Amazing how quickly pitching depth can disappear.

Phelps, tonight’s starter, has impressed in six long relief outings even though his 5.66 FIP in 17.2 IP is rather unsightly. He gave up three homers in 6.2 IP against the Red Sox and Rangers late last month, which will do a number on the ol’ FIP this early in the season. I honestly think his 3.57 ERA more accurately portrays his performance at this point, but maybe I’m just being a homer. Phelps has struck out 14 batters in those 17.2 IP, a solid but unspectacular 7.13 K/9 and 19.7 K%. Two of his seven walks were intentional and his 42.6% ground ball rate is decent enough.

Obviously six long relief appearances do not tell the whole David Phelps story, but that doesn’t change the fact that tonight’s start is a big opportunity for him, legitimately the biggest opportunity of his career (to date). Freddy Garcia has already pitched himself out of the rotation and Phil Hughes is on a similar path, so there’s a chance for Phelps to seize a full-time starting spot even though Andy Pettitte’s return is on the horizon. Saying he just has to pitch better than Phil is an oversimplification because a 7.00 ERA would represent an upgrade and still stink. In order to keep a rotation spot, Phelps is going to have to show the ability to a) go 5+ innings each time out, and b) not let things get out of hand like it has for Garcia and Hughes so many times. It’s so horribly cliche but true.

I don’t think Phelps has forced the Yankees’ hand — his performance has been solid but not overwhelmingly so — it’s more about getting Garcia the hell outta there. Phelps happened to be in the right place at the right time more than anything, but give him a lot of credit for doing what he had to do in Spring Training to win a job and then again in long relief to get noticed. The St. Louis native will have lots of friends and family in the stands tonight, so I’m sure his excitement level will be through the roof. The first career start is always a big one when it comes to nerves and stuff, but the evaluation process starts now and Phelps has to show he has what it takes to be a starter in this league if he wants to keep his rotation spot on more than just a temporary basis.

Categories : Pitching

99 Comments»

  1. Typical MIT Nerd says:

    “Amazing how quickly…depth can disappear.”

    Pitching.
    Catching.
    Outfield.

    What next, the infield?

    That’s what happens when you have an old team. Now let’s see if they can stumble into actually developing pitchers.

    • Thomas says:

      It is true that the Yankees are old, but that hasn’t been the problem with the lack of depth.

      In the oufield Gardner and Swisher (young and in his prime respectively) got hurt, not the older players like Ibanez and Jones.

      For the pitching, Garcia’s demise might be age related, but certainly age had nothing to do with the loss of Pineda and Hughes sucking.

      Catching depth has been lost by the Romine getting hurt, Martin being ineffective offensively, and Cervelli being demoted to AAA. None of those problems are age related.

      The Yankees old players (Rivera, Jeter, A-Rod, Ibanez) have been healthy and mostly effective.

      • Typical MIT Nerd says:

        Swisher is past prime. Gardner isn’t exactly young either.

        Garcia’s fraying shoulder says it’s age-related.

        Martin is past prime and was abused by Torre.

        “The Yankees old players (Rivera, Jeter, A-Rod, Ibanez) have been healthy and mostly effective.”

        You might want to throw some salt over your shoulder and go pick some shamrocks. It’s only May.

        • Mike Axisa says:

          On what planet is Swisher past his prime?

          • Typical MIT Nerd says:

            On the planet where he’s 31 and even outstanding hitters decline past 28-29.

            So, to answer your question, this planet.

            • Thomas says:

              Maybe you should read this: http://sports.espn.go.com/fant.....=age27myth

              It states

              Those 28-year-olds, by the way, might have the best stat line of the bunch; that is, if the 31-year-olds don’t. Suffice to say, from the chart above, it’s clear a player’s prime runs about six or seven years, from ages 26 through 32.

              Maybe my math skills are failing me, but I believe 31 is between the ages of 26 and 32.

              • Typical MIT Nerd says:

                And maybe you should read these:

                http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs…..tters-age/
                http://www.beyondtheboxscore.c…..ing-curves

                I’ll take those sources over espn and day of the week and twice for a double header.

                • CP says:

                  They all say basically the same thing…. peak age is generally around 27-28, and the prime period of the career extends 3-4 years on either side of that.

                  If you’re considering ‘prime’ as only the peak season, then Swisher is past his prime. Realistically, you’ll never have a team made up of only 27 and 28 year olds, so you should consider the few seasons around that peak when production is not too different.

                  • Ted Nelson says:

                    I somehow really doubt this guy got into MIT…

                    • Typical MIT Nerd says:

                      Somehow I highly doubt you graduated from high school. GED?

                    • Ted Nelson says:

                      I’m not trying to get into a personal thing with you… Robinson points out the same thing below, though. Your comments just doesn’t scream “MIT.”

                    • MannyGeee says:

                      untrue, even the janitors at MIT are nerdy…

                    • Typical MIT Nerd says:

                      And you know the variety at MIT how? You want all DER, and OPS+, and K rate? I can do that too.

                      You only seem to misread people then pick lame fights over things they don’t say.

                    • Typical MIT Nerd says:

                      Heh, you got me. I’m a janitor. I solve equations in my spare time.

                      Do you like apples?

                    • Ted Nelson says:

                      Anyone can list stats. What I’m looking for is critical analysis. You have determined that the Yankees depth is disappearing because their roster is old… and that 31 is no longer a prime year. This is really poor analysis.

                      You can keep pretending I’m stupid and wouldn’t know anything about the “MIT type” but it’s not helping your argument. I am talking about your actual comments, and wondering why you choose your name. And I’m not the only one doing that… at least two others are as well. You are just lobbing random insults.

                      How was I supposed to read this? “Pitching.
                      Catching.
                      Outfield.
                      What next, the infield?
                      That’s what happens when you have an old team.”

                    • hogsmog says:

                      Mentioning that you go to MIT in a casual, offhand matter when nobody asked you is the move of a really big d-bag. Once you get into hard science academia, you realize that the kinds of people who throw those names around are the kinds of people who aren’t competent enough to let their own skills and intelligence stand on their own. I’ve met both very competent and very incompetent people from MIT, so a ‘typical’ student doesn’t mean much. In fact, actual skill and ‘proudness of alma mater’ seem almost inversely correlated to me at this point.

                  • Typical MIT Nerd says:

                    The point is: Swisher is likely only getting worse, not better. There are folks who defy the normal curves, and he has the requisite skills. It doesn’t change the fact that they have a team with little upside.

                    • Mike Axisa says:

                      Yes, he’s only going to get worse because he was having a monster season before going on the DL. He’ll have a typical Swisher year and then they’ll probably let him walk as a free agent after the season.

                      What exactly is the problem here?

                    • Typical MIT Nerd says:

                      You misunderstand me.

                      1. I was talking about Swisher’s career trajectory, not this year.
                      2. I’m actually a big Swisher fan, except for that disappearing in the playoffs thing.
                      3. I started this thread by pointing out the problems in the lineup having no upside. It’s old and getting older with nothing in the farm to help and with free agents all past prime.

                      For Swisher, as for anyone, it all depends on the price. I know I’d rather sign Swisher than pay twice as much for Cano.

                    • Ted Nelson says:

                      What does this have to do with whether Swisher is in a prime season in 2012 or not? Everyone else believes he is, his early season production indicated he was, but you think he’s too old and declining…

                    • Typical MIT Nerd says:

                      Ah, yes, the retort to “Everyone”.

                      Wrong, I don’t. And Swisher is declining. No where did I say he’s too old. The Lineup is.

                      Maybe once you learn to read properly, you can question the education of others…

                    • Ted Nelson says:

                      Again, how else am I supposed to read “Pitching.
                      Catching.
                      Outfield.
                      What next, the infield?
                      That’s what happens when you have an old team?”

                      Everyone else seems to have read it the same way I have. Maybe it’s your writing and not every single person who has commented on its reading comprehension. I refer to “everyone” because there is literally not one comment I see here that agrees with you. That’s “everyone.”

                      And this isn’t the first thread where I’ve wanted to ask you what they’re teaching you at MIT. I think I literally have asked that in a previous thread.

                  • Typical MIT Nerd says:

                    There’s nothing causal about my handle, genius.

                    As for you Teddy Boy, you’re still sloshing around trying figure out what to argue about. Where do I mention injuries?

                    • hogsmog says:

                      I would argue that your handle is most certainly causal. Most things are ;)

                    • Ted Nelson says:

                      This entire conversation is about your point that the Yankees depth has disappeared because they’re an old team. Their depth has disappeared due to… wait for it… injuries.

                      There is no argument here. You are wrong.

            • Ted Nelson says:

              31 is still generally considered a prime year. 29 might be the average prime year, but there’s a lot of variation and someone’s “prime” is generally used to refer to a period of years rather than one year.

              The age of the team has very little to do with the pitching depth. Garcia is older, but Pineda, Hughes. Joba, Meyers, and Cabral are young.

              Romine is young. And there’s still C depth. Cervelli’s at least getting his offense together in AAA. Murphy and Sanchez are in the wings still. They traded away Montero… and guys tend to disappear when you trade them.

              Gardner is not old. Swisher is not particularly old. And they do have depth in the OF. Jones and Ibanez (nd Nunez) are their OF depth, which they’re relying on now. Then there’s also Wise (Cust maybe, though he’s been only DHing in AAA).

              Fact is that their old players have not been the problem. Jeter, A-Rod, Mo, Jones, Kuroda, Ibanez, maybe Pettitte soon… these guys have all been healthy (knock on wood). Garcia and now maybe Chavez are the only old guys who have disappeared. The DL is filled with 20-somethings.

              • Typical MIT Nerd says:

                “Jones and Ibanez (nd Nunez) are their OF depth”

                Did you type this with a straight face? If you think Cust is OF depth, probably so.

                “Fact is that their old players have not been the problem.”

                You might want to do more than knock on wood. Try horseshoes, shamrocks, and rabbit feet.

                • Ted Nelson says:

                  Jones and Ibanez are their OF depth. That’s a fact. Why wouldn’t I say that with a straight face. What do you expect a team to have for 4th and 5th OFs? Jones has had wOBA of .364 and .371 the past two seasons and is about as ideal a lefty mashing 4th OF as you could possibly have.

                  I clearly said that Cust has only DH’d (though he does have 1,750 MLB OF innings under his belt), but I guess you’d rather ignore what people are saying and pretend your point that is factually incorrect is right… have fun with that.

                  What are you talking about? You blame the injuries on age, and when it’s pointed out to you that it’s primarily young guys getting hurt you resort to voodoo? Why not just admit that you were wrong? I’d really like to know what they’re teaching you at MIT.

                  • Typical MIT Nerd says:

                    “That’s a fact. ”

                    And that’s the problem. What’s their DER this year?

                    People aren’t talking about the defense w/r/t to the pitching. But preventing runs is just as important as scoring them.

                    I’d really like to know where you learned to read. Hooked on Phonics?

                    • Ted Nelson says:

                      I asked you what you expect from a 4th and 5th OF, and you respond by asking how I learned to read…

                      It’s all the old guys on the Yankees roster getting injured, right?

                    • Typical MIT Nerd says:

                      “What do you expect a team to have for 4th and 5th OFs? ”

                      Some defense, some offense. They have neither this year.

                      Clearly, you read only what you want. Have fun with that…

                    • Ted Nelson says:

                      What? How do I read something that you haven’t written yet?

                      This is why people are making fun of your name… to look at a one month sample and decide Jones is not a good 4th OF after two very, very solid seasons demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of statistics as a science.

                    • Ted Nelson says:

                      Ibanez I’m not a huge fan of… but as a 5th OF you’re not going to find a lot of better guys.

            • Robinson Tilapia says:

              I’m convinced more and more you studied Liberal Arts at MIT.

          • Steve (different one) says:

            On the same planet where Gardner “isn’t young”. Must be Pluto, since we’re measuring in dog years. Yes, I know Pluto is no longer a planet….

            • MannyGeee says:

              “Yes, I know Pluto is no longer a planet….”

              you obviously went to MIT as well… with all that science knowledge you got going there.

          • ND Mike says:

            He’s past his prime if he was a child actor…

    • Mike HC says:

      We are not the only team with injuries. Longo is down. Youk is down. Hamilton has been nicked up.

  2. Typical MIT Nerd says:

    Phelps is a classic back of the rotation guy. But the Yankees only need league average to do well…so long as they are hitting.

  3. jsbrendog says:

    kc is a tough one to start against too, their offense is top 10 this yr.

    hopefully he pulls it together andcomes out smokin

  4. TheOneWhoKnocks says:

    Rooting for Phelps to take Hughes job very soon. Can’t watch phil anymore at this point.

  5. Elmgrovegnome says:

    It’s amazing how quickly the Yankee mystique wears off. How many times do we see a retread put on the roster and he has a great season or half a season only to return to his same old sorry self the next year.

    Bart and Freddy are just the latest. Does the excitement wear off for these guys or what?

    • A.D. says:

      There’s a reason they’re re-treads, only so much magic in that bottle

    • Ted Nelson says:

      What does this have to do with “Yankee mystique?” Both Garcia and Colon have had serious shoulder problems.

      Colon is doing well in Oakland… 2.5 ERA, 3.1 FIP. (And he’s actually doing a lot better on the road, not in the huge Coliseum.)

  6. Elmgrovegnome says:

    That old Johann Santana trade offer looks better and better with each passing season. Who would have thought back then that it Hughes and Chamberlain would amount to this?

    • Typical MIT Nerd says:

      They got CC instead. That’s a hard one to criticize though Johan looks great this year.

      No, they screwed the pooch letting Halladay, Haren, and Lee go by while holding onto Hughes and Joba. Even Oswalt would have been very useful.

      • Kosmo says:

        I think Phelps might just surprise a lot of people. He seems to have a good idea of what he´s doing on the mound and his stuff is good enough to succeed. I think he has a higher ceiling than Nova.

    • Rey22 says:

      Yes, every night before going to sleep I regret not paying Santana over 20M to watch him shred his shoulder and spend a bunch of time on the DL. Not to mention he’d be making the 20M they wouldn’t be paying Sabathia to be on the team. Hughes and Chamberlain have certainly struggled, but let’s not act like getting Santana would have been a good move.

    • jjyank says:

      Are you serious? You think the Pineda backlash has been bad? Can you imagine the fallout if Cashman had pulled the trigger on Johan and he destroyed his shoulder and spend all the time on the DL? Not only was there the trade, but the extension too.

      But sure, one month of good pitching following that erases everything before it. Hurrah SSS.

      • Typical MIT Nerd says:

        One month doesn’t erase his entire career. That’s the sample size. He’s doing it with a reduced fastball, yes, but his changeup is still outstanding.

        • jjyank says:

          That’s not the point. The choice was trade for Johan and then extend him, or sign CC. I don’t see how anyone can fault Cash for that non-trade. Johan had several statistics trending downward even before the trade, I put very little stock into his 2012 April.

          • Typical MIT Nerd says:

            I don’t disagree with that decision. CC was the right call.

            The problem is they then went out and signed Burnett for 85M.

      • Johnny O says:

        Agreed. At least we’re only paying Pineda $500K to be hurt this year whereas the Muts had to kick up $20M of Bernie Madoff profits for Johan to rehab.

        Even if Hughes and Joba never pitched a single inning after the Johan trade, I wouldn’t wish Cashman did that deal considering salar vs. performance.

        • Ted Nelson says:

          I disagree with MIT about pining for that trade given that we don’t know what would have happened with CC, and the whole hindsight thing with Hughes and Joba.

          However, I think you’re going too far in the other direction. Even with missing a full season Johan has averaged 2.7 fWAR per season for the Mets his first 4 years, and is on roughly a 5.4 fWAR track this season… if he at least gets to 4 fWAR this season he’d be averaging about 3 fWAR per season as a Met even having missed an entire season. Granted there are the NL and ballpark differences. Still… it’s a better return on investment than a lot of these high priced FA Ps.

      • Rainbow connection says:

        We don’t know if Johan would be injured as a Yankee.

    • Robinson Tilapia says:

      I would have loved to acquire a Norwegian pitcher.

    • MannyGeee says:

      yeah, but the Mets have invested @ $50M of shelf time for this hot month he’s put up.

  7. Bartolo's Colon says:

    things have been shitty lately, but really, its not all that bad. the starting pitching has been pretty bad, but cc, kuroda, and nova are pretty good collectively. pettitte, as long as he doesn’t get hurt will be ok for a 4, and no one has great 5th starter, so hopefully hughes or phelps can get by. the bullpen is as legit as they come. collectively the offense has been good, they have just been like the 2010 mariners lately. if tex and cano decide to start playing baseball and they keep ibanez at least 30 ft from a baseball glove at all times (come back soon brett and nick), i think they will be in good shape

    • Guest says:

      I like the positive outlook, but to be fair, Nova’s actually kind of sucked for much of this season. His stuff looks great and, based on his performance last year, I’m willing to believe he will pull it together.

      Phil has also sucked, no doubt. But I actually think I was both disappointed and encouraged by his last start. I was disappointed by the high pitch count and the fact that he keeps making his mistakes over the middle of the plate. I was encouraged by the fact that his curveball actually looked like it had life and he maintained his fastball in the 92-93 range in the fifth and sixth after airing it out to 95 in the first.

      It’s not often that a pitcher gives up four runs in 5.2 on a night where he also has 6K’s, 1 BB, 1 HBP, and gives up only 4H.

      Of course, I spent the entire 2011 season making the same rationalizations for AJ’s starts and that did not end well. Hopefully, he sticks with the same mentality he had for this last start, stops missing “middle-middle” with his fastball, and keeps that curve dipping sharply in the strike zone.

  8. jjyank says:

    I know Phelps doesn’t have the highest ceiling, but I’m still pretty excited to watch his start. You never know, people can out-pitch their scouting report. I’m hope Phelps makes the most of this.

    I’m also just real excited for the guy in general. The interviews I’ve seen with him portray him as a real nice guy, good team player. In the span of a couple of months he became a father, made his first MLB roster, and is now going to make his first MLB start. Dude must be on cloud 9 right now.

  9. Is Nova done? Maybe it’s time to trade him for a younger prospect

  10. DM says:

    So who goes out for Nix?

  11. CP says:

    Amazing how quickly pitching depth can disappear.

    Isn’t this just depth getting used, the depth really isn’t gone. They also still have Mitchell, Warren, Banuelos, Betances, and Pettitte as depth options for the rotation (some obviously better options than others).

    • Mike HC says:

      Yea, I’m with you. This is the entire point of having the pitching depth. You just keep pitching guys until one sticks.

  12. Ro says:

    I’m going to be one of the positive few on here, however I remain cautiously optimistic about Phelps chances. I hope the kid comes out and throws a great game tonight. Both for the reasons of a team win first, but also to further cement the topic of the Yankee’s babying their pitchers. What I mean is, and as a follow up to both Harpers article and Mike’s post here, that wouldn’t it be something if Phelps has a few solid consecutive starts. IPK and Nova are two great examples of pitchers who weren’t babied and have done very well. Phelps hasn’t had any restrictions so I am very curious to see what the results are. I really do believe there is something to this topic. The Rangers have some great pitching which is the best example referenced by many regarding this topic and frankly, a few of the pitchers, most notably, Holland who didn’t have the highest ceilings and wasn’t touted as the next Clemens, so..

    I’d love nothing more to look back to this date come August and see that Phelps is still in the rotation having gone something like 8-3 with a sub 4.00ERA over that period.

  13. Mike HC says:

    I definitely like Phelps. I hope he does well, but gotta say, I’m not getting my hopes too high up.

  14. Robinson Tilapia says:

    This is what I’ve always said: Phelps/Mitchell/Warren need to seize every opportunity given to them. There are three rotation spots open next year, and it’s their performance that will put them in consideration for them. The window is, admittedly, bigger now than when I first said this, but it still applies.

    No, I don’t expect perfection, and Phelps has been less than perfect. He’s been more than good enough to continue getting a strong, strong look.

    I know there are oodles or peripheral numbers than can be quoted back at me about Ivan Nova, but he’s been the second best starter on this team for close to a year now. If that’s what a back-end guy looks like, then show me more back-end rotation type guys.

    I expect a solid start. I worry about him going five with the pitch limit. I’ll admit I’ll be pretty disappointed if it doesn’t go well.

    • Kosmo says:

      Tut Mir Leid ! but me thinks Kuroda, at least this year, is the second best starter on the staff. Nova had an excellent rookie year but he´s still got a ways to go to convince me he´s a certifiable MLB pitcher with a great future. I see Nova as 12-10 type with a 4.30 ish ERA.

    • jsbrendog says:

      they don;t have to be great, they just have to avoid being terrible. as long as they are never awful enough to be pulled from the rotation then they will get that shot.

    • Luisergi says:

      My God!! he is on a F%$!” Pitch Limit???
      Didn’t know that…
      Hate those things…

      • Ted Nelson says:

        He’s been pitching in relief. He got up to 78 pitches in one outing, but it’s tough for any P who has averaged 52 pitches his last 5 outings to go out and throw 100 pitches… that’s not a Yankee thing, it’s a physical thing. If he gets them 5 solid IP, I would call that a victory.

  15. gageagainstthemachine says:

    After the last couple of nights (including the 2-1 win), I’ve been wanting to take a night off from watching this team sleep through ballgames. However, tonight isn’t that night. I will be rooting hard for David Phelps. So far he’s definitely had an “it” factor to his performances. I’m not saying it is a lights-out “it” factor, but I like his confidence on the mound and I don’t wait for the imminent implosion they way I have with Garcia and Hughes this year (and AJ for the past couple). I hope the guy goes on a tear in the rotation and makes the Yankees really re-evaluate the players in their system and what makes a good ball player (beyond the hype and draft status). Other than Jeter (1st round pick), look at the homegrown Yankees and where they started. The Riveras (international free agent), Posadas (24th round), Williams (international signing), and Pettittes (22nd round) have a story more similar to David Phelps (14th round) than they do to Bryce Harper (1st round). Not comparing him to those guys or Bryce Harper yet by any means. Just the fact that we can project all you want, but some guys are just meant to play baseball and succeed. While others are talented beyond belief, but just don’t pan out. Either way, go Phelps! I’m rooting for you.

  16. Tom Lon Tom says:

    The problem with Cash Register Man is that he keeps trying to hit home runs with his pitching prospects and neglects middle of the road guys who can get on base and keep things going.

    • pat says:

      That’s pretty much the exact definition of Phelps/Warren/Nova/Noesi/Mitchell. Plus, don’t won’t we want a GM who is trying to produce studs? Should he just be aiming to develop mid rotation starters?

  17. Frank says:

    Can’t have expectations that are too high. I believe Phelps has to be given at least a couple more opportunities despite what happens tonight. Garcia/Hughes just haven’t cut it. And even with Pettitte on the horizon, he’s no sure thing either. The bottom line is the Yanks don’t have many options- Banuelos, Betances aren’t ready; Mitchell I guess would be next in line. Maybe Warren. And there’s no trade on the horizon for a starter for at least for a couple of months, if at all. Besides, starting pitching is just one of several issues this team has.

    • jsbrendog says:

      let’s be honest, i don’t think anyone here thinks phelps wll be as abd as hughes/garcia have been…meaning he will continue to get shots until he shows that he isnt better than either of them……which….seriously, at this point, my god i hope i dont have to watch that caue it’d be like watching burnett give up 12 runs in less than 3 innings….wait…what?

    • Herby says:

      I’m hoping Phelps makes a positive impact on this rotation starting tonight…having a lot of friends and family in the crowd might not be a big help but we’ll see. Do we see Roy Oswalt somewhere down the line? It’s a scary thought.
      I was a little disappointed that the Yankees didn’t go after Cespedes this off season, I don’t think you’ll see much from the guy they just signed…seems more like an Igawa signing. A’s have their Cuban outfielder so let’s get one of our own

  18. BK2ATL says:

    I like that this kid knows how to pitch. I’m wishing him well.

    I’m hoping for a 6 inning, 2-3 run effort out of Phelps. Pitch count around 90. Maybe 6Ks, 2 BB. That would be a very good start from Phelps to me.

  19. michael says:

    FIP isn’t worth citing in this sample size. I wouldn’t look at FIP- it until the season is over. Some arms will randomly give up zero or a ton of HR, which is why there is xFIP,. His xFIP is roughly league average given the +/- for the sample. His swinging strike rate isn’t impressive so there isn’t reason to think his K% will increase. He isn’t in the zone all too much, so there isn’t much reason to think his BB% will decrease. Some beginners luck, novelty, and a generous zone will help him record abundant Ks. Very excited to see him start.

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