Sanchez doubles and homers in Tampa win

Monday Night Open Thread
Thoughts following Monday's off-day

Some notes:

  • VP of Baseball Ops Mark Newman confirmed to Josh Norris that OF Ravel Santana will miss the rest of the year with a broken forearm. He suffered the injury two weeks ago. Once upon a time, Santana was one the team’s most exciting prospects. After losing two years to injury, he’s an afterthought.
  • Norris has some more general info from Newman to check out as well. Most notably, he says first rounder 3B Eric Jagielo is about a week away from returning from his hamstring injury. I don’t know if that means he is a week away from games or a week away from workouts, but Newman has a knack for being, uh, optimistic with recovery time frames (coughTimNortoncough).
  • Check out Matt Filippi‘s scouting reports on various Short Season Staten Island arms. He’s not the first person to be impressed by this summer’s 12th round pick, LHP Caleb Smith.

Triple-A Scranton had a scheduled off-day.

Double-A Trenton (11-4 loss to Erie)

  • LF Ramon Flores: 0-4, 1 E (throwing)
  • CF Slade Heathcott: 0-3, 1 HBP — got picked off first
  • RF Tyler Austin: 3-4, 1 R
  • 1B Kyle Roller: 2-3, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 K — his strong year continues … he’s now at .277/.366/.465
  • RHP Shane Greene: 5 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 HB, 6/4 GB/FB — 58 of 91 pitches were strikes (64%) … only the third time in 15 starts that he’s walked more than one batter, but he still has yet to walk more than two in a game this year
  • RHP Tommy Kahnle: 1.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 WP, 0/3 GB/FB — 28 of 38 pitches were strikes (74%)

High-A Tampa (11-3 win over Clearwater)

  • CF Mason Williams: 1-5, 1 R, 1 3B, 1 K — 21-for-68 (.309) over his last 18 games
  • 2B Rob Refsnyder: 2-4, 3 R, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 1 K
  • C Peter O’Brien: 2-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 K
  • DH Gary Sanchez: 2-4, 3 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB — already 11 homers on the year
  • RF Yeral Sanchez: 2-4, 1 R, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB
  • RHP Corey Black: 4 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, 1 WP, 6/1 GB/FB — 9/12 K/BB in 11 innings since coming off the DL
  • RHP Diego Moreno: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 1/2 GB/FB

Low-A Charleston (7-6 loss to Greenville)

  • CF Jake Cave: 1-4, 1 BB, 1 K
  • SS Cito Culver: 1-4, 1 RBI, 3 K, SB — went from an 18.9% strikeout rate last year to 28.4% this year, which is especially bad because he’s repeating the level
  • 1B Greg Bird: 1-4, 2 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 K, 1 HBP — 15 hits in his last 33 at-bats (.455) with five doubles and one homer
  • 3B Dante Bichette Jr.: 2-4, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 E (fielding)
  • 2B Angelo Gumbs: 0-4, 1 RBI, 1 K
  • RHP Cesar Vargas: 5 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, 1 WP, 8/0 GB/FB — 52 of 89 pitches were strikes (58%)

Short Season Staten Island (3-2 win over Aberdeen in 13 innings, walk-off style)

  • SS John Murphy: 2-6, 1 R, 1 RBI, 2 K
  • CF Michael O’Neill: 1-5, 1 BB, 2 K
  • RF Yeicok Calderon: 3-7, 1 RBI, 2 K — walk-off single
  • DH Daniel Aldrich: 0-4, 2 BB, 2 K
  • RHP Jairo Heredia: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 1 WP, 2/3 GB/FB — 77/16 K/BB in 77 innings dating back to last year
  • LHP Tyler Webb: 2 IP, zeroes, 3 K, 2/2 GB/FB — seven strikeouts and one base-runner (a walk) in four innings so far
  • RHP Stefan Lopez: 2 IP, zeroes, 1 K, 2/3 GB/FB

Rookie GCL Yanks1 (5-2 win over GCL Phillies)

  • CF Adonis Garcia: 0-3, 1 K — threw a runner out at third … played five innings in the field as he rehabs the broken wrist
  • SS Tyler Wade: 2-4, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 SB, 1 E (fielding) — four hits and four errors in his two pro games
  • 2B Gosuke Katoh: 0-4, 1 BB, 1 K — first homerless game so far
  • RF Austin Aune: 1-3, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 E (fielding) — two hits, two doubles so far
  • RHP Erick Canela: 5 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 4/0 GB/FB — 22-year-old spent the last four years in the Dominican Summer League … he’s the type of guy who might not have made it to the U.S. this year without the second GCL team

Rookie GCL Yanks2 (15-12 win over GCL Braves in 14 innings)

  • DH Bryan Cuevas: 3-8, 3 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K — 19-year-old has multiple hits in all three games so far
  • C Luis Torrens: 3-4, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB — first pro homer for the 17-year-old (!), who played eight innings in the field
  • 3B Renzo Martini: 3-6, 2 R, 2 2B, 4 RBI, 1 BB
  • LF Nathan Mikolas: 0-3, 1 BB, 1 K — left the game after drawing a walk in the sixth inning for an unknown reason
  • 2B Jose Javier: 4-7, 2 R, 3 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
  • CF Kendall Coleman: 1-8, 2 K
  • RHP Dayton Dawe: 2 IP, 4 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HB, 2/2 GB/FB — blew a seven-run lead in the bottom of the ninth
Monday Night Open Thread
Thoughts following Monday's off-day
  • Tom Trudeau

    10 bucks says when Sanchez hits his 12th homer Mike writes “already 12 homers on the year.”

    • rick

      burn. nice one sir. its like when swisher sucked in the playoffs he would say “small sample size” (unlike all other players that have 600 at bats in the playoffs)

      • pat

        Lol yea good one. That Mike, what a loser. Has to compile the stats for our entire minor league system every day for free and occasionally repeats phrases. Wat a dick.

        • Dropped Third

          Thank you! Ungrateful bastards…

        • nycsportzfan

          I chuckled when i read Tom Trudeaus post. I don’t think he meant anything by it. Jeez, some of you are sensitive. Mikes the man, and he knows it.

      • LK

        I think what you’re missing is that in fact the playoffs are a small sample size for everyone. Except of course guys like Jeter and Pettitte who have been so many times and (OH MY GOD) performed basically to their career numbers. Who would’ve possibly thunk it?

      • BFDeal

        Are you 14 or just age 14 mentally?

      • Cool Lester Smooth

        That’s 4 prospects for 1 other prospect. Jesus montero, who was a similar caliber prospect to Profar at the time, pulled Michael Pineda and Jose Campos, that’a a much smaller haul than what this trade proposes.

    • KDart
  • Don

    Do you think Texas will listen to an offer of Sanchez, depuala, Ramirez and one of the 3 outfielders for profar?

    • Cool Lester Smooth

      Texas might propose that offer. Cash would then proceed to laugh all the way out the door.

    • BronxBombers?

      I don’t see why they would. They’re contending this year and nobody knows if/when Nelson Cruz gets suspended in the Biogenesis scandal, so I can’t see them trading their top prospect AND a starting outfielder for a few kids who aren’t close to being major league ready.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      You cannot be serious.

      “Here’s five of our prospects for your guy who still technically is one.”

      • LK

        It’s 4 prospects, not 5. And if you model expected WAR by prospect rank, the top prospect in baseball is worth about 3 or 4 guys in the 25-50 range. Neither team would do this trade, but it’s probably about fair. People MASSIVELY overrate prospects in the 6-100 range. Most of those guys don’t turn into much.

        • OhioYanks

          I’m not questioning your statement, but do you actually have a model to point us to? “Because I say so” blog posts aren’t very convincing.

          • LK

            Google “graph of expected war by prospect rank” and click on the 2nd link. There’s some regressions which I know isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but the takeaway is basically (with the caveat that I don’t have the data they used to replicate their results, so I’m taking what they did at face value):

            Based on the BA rankings, the top prospect is worth ~3 top 50 prospects. Based on Sickels’ rankings, the top prospect is worth ~3.5 top 50 prospects. BP didn’t have data for top 50, but the top prospect is worth just under 2 top 25 prospects based on their rankings (for BP, the coefficient on a top 5 prospect was greater than the top prospect or top 2 prospect, which suggests they didn’t do a great job with their rankings). Based on this particular study, BA does the best job at ranking the prospects. FWIW, Profar was the top BA prospect for 2013.

            Another way to look at this is with a real life example. Let’s go back in time to 2011. The Yankees had 6 top 100 prospects: Montero (3), Sanchez (30), Banuelos (41), Betances (43), Brackman (78), and Romine (98). The top 2 prospects were Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. Let’s say they made a Montero, Sanchez, Banuelos, Betances, Brackman, and Romine for Harper deal. That deal is considerably *less* favorable to the Yankees than the one suggested by the original poster, as it includes 6 prospects instead of 4, and Montero was a far better prospect at that point than any current player in the farm system. Would we be regretting that now?

            • LK

              Also, just so I’m clear, I’m not necessarily advocating for the Yankees to make this type of all-for-one trade. It’s an extremely risky strategy that I don’t think suits the current state of the organization. But people act like the Yanks would be getting ripped off, and they really wouldn’t; there’s actually a decent chance they end up way ahead.

              • OhioYanks

                I don’t necessarily disagree that they might be better off getting one top, top prospect. Intuitively if makes sense.

                The rankings fluctuate enough year-to-year that it depends on where the Yankees guys are now, mid-season. Would have to guess around even collectively. De Paula is sort of the wildcard. Obviously stock is up, but how high? Williams and Austin have shown signs of life, but have to be down overall (especially Williams who was around #30 on BA). Sanchez maybe holding even. BA seems especially low on him, for what that’s worth, as Law has him top 25 and Mayo @ 36. Ramirez has to have helped himself.

                • LK

                  Yeah one drawback to this paper is that it only examines BA/Sickels/BP. I’d be very interested to see what Law’s numbers look like in particular as he’s very willing to drastically break with consensus.

                  DePaula looks like he might be an absolute stud. It’s amazing to think where he might be if he didn’t have to deal with that visa mess.

            • OhioYanks

              I’ll take a look at the regression analysis.

              I took just 2003-7 top 10 BA prospects for the hell of it. I found that the average fWAR for #6-10 (16.2) is actually higher than for #1-5 (14.8). Not to say that they are better, just that it’s not a statistically significant difference. #1 is the best spot on average (26.86… Mauer twice and Tex carry the spot because Dice-K and Delmon contribute little… and I know that Profar was #1), but after that the order is fairly random: 10 (21.4), 2 (20.6), 7 (19.5), 4 (14.8), 6 (14.18)

              It’s a tiny sample and doesn’t really say much. Just thought I’d take a quick look. I’ll check out the regressions tomorrow.

              The Harper/Trout example doesn’t do anything for me, fyi. It’s cherry picking one example, which happens to be a relatively strong top 2 prospects. I’d rather look at a large enough sample to actually conclude something. Profar absolutely might be worth all those guys, though I would argue (and the scouting reports that I’ve read are where I’m getting this) Profar isn’t necessarily a once (or twice) in a generation talent like Harper and Trout. Those guys were really can’t miss.

              • LK

                So I would say your tiny sample analysis more or less confirms what I think about all these prospect lists – #1 means something, after that uncertainty reigns. As you note, though, even #1 isn’t a sure thing, as there simply is no such thing in baseball players, prospects or otherwise.

                Also, the Harper/Trout example definitely wasn’t meant to prove anything. I just looked at the 2012 list and thought talking about Banuelos/Betances/Sanchez/Williams for Harper would be too ridiculous to even be comparable. The 2011 list had the advantage of having a stronger group of Yankee prospects, while also having Harper be less of a sure thing at the time (though still admittedly a better prospect than Profar, and possibly substantially so depending on whose opinion you’re using). I completely agree that a (much) larger sample would be required to conclude anything, I’m simply unwilling to put in that type of work myself for what is ultimately just a diversion :). The paper I mention above (I would’ve posted the link, but it was too long) does compile a larger sample and seems to agree with what I’ve seen on this stuff elsewhere, which is that expected value falls off extremely quickly as you go down the list. I’d be interested to hear what you think of it, as I mostly just gave it a cursory review and saw that it was consistent with the other studies I’ve read about (I think FanGraphs has done one though I don’t have a link handy).

                At the end of the day though, I don’t think I’d pull the trigger on this type of 4 prospects for Profar deal with the Yankees’ current situation, I really just wanted to point out that in the abstract a #1 prospect-for-4 good but not elite prospects trade is fairly similar in expected value for both sides. Of course, if the Yankees internally feel that one of those prospects mentioned IS a top 5/3/whatever prospect, that can change the calculus as well.

            • Cool Lester Smooth

              The issue is that you’re comparing Bryce Harper with Jurickson Profar, who cannot carry Harper’s jockstrap in terms of prospect ranking. In fact, you could say that about any other No. 1 prospect since Alex Rodriguez.

              Not all No. 1 prospects are made equal.

              • OhioYanks

                I agree with that point, but I think LK hurt his case with that example and his overall point still stands. (Not that they should definitely make the trade, but that it’s worth seriously considering.) I still have to actually look through the report LK mentioned, but even if you consider Profar merely a top 5 or top 10 prospect rather than a true #1 overall prospect (which is pretty subjective), he’s still probably worth a few Yankees’ prospects. You can absolutely make a case that the Yankees’ prospects are underrated or Profar is overrated (or simply his timing is right because there are no generational talents around), but that kind of subjective stuff is pretty open to bias. If you’re a big-time Yankee fan on a Yankee blog making that argument, I am not going to be inclined to take it seriously.

                (And while Profar might not be the biggest stud ever he is a damn good prospect.)

                • Cool Lester Smooth

                  Oh, Profar’s a very good prospect and I think he’s going to be a very good player in the MLB. I just don’t think he’s a true difference maker worth breaking the bank for.

                • Robinson Tilapia

                  Loved this, OY.

                  • I’m One

                    This made for some good reading when I wasn’t able to sleep at 2AM. (Paying for that now and will be the rest of the day.)

              • JobaWockeeZ

                You didn’t check out his evidence before trying to refute I see.

                • Cool Lester Smooth

                  Hm? I don’t care about the objective value of trading 4 mid-ranked prospects for a single high-ranked prospect in a vacuum. I’m talking about actual players who we have knowledge

                  I don’t think that Jurickson Profar is not worth that much, but if we could have traded Montero, Sanchez, Banuelos and DePaula for Harper, each at the peak of their value, I would not have blinked.

                  • LK

                    It appears that my attempt to provide a concrete example has in fact served to obscure rather than elucidate. The only comparison that I was trying to make between Profar and Harper is that they were each ranked #1. Clearly Harper was a better prospect in 2011 than Profar was at the beginning of this season. I figured that including 6 Yankee prospects instead of 4, combined with the fact that Montero was the #3 prospect and far and away better than any current player in the system, would be enough to bridge the gap. I’d be happy to admit that I was wrong if that serves to bring the debate back to what I was trying to talk about, which was precisely “the objective value of trading 4 mid-ranked prospects for a single high-ranked prospect in a vacuum.”

                    • Cool Lester Smooth

                      Haha, I got it. I just replied to you below.

                  • OhioYanks

                    Not sure that “objective” is a bad thing here. Certainly everyone is going to have their own opinions on each individual prospect, but as a Yankee fan it’s hard to take your proclamation that, basically, the Yankees guys are all underrated and Profar is overrated too seriously. Especially since you don’t really offer any analysis behind it.

                    • Cool Lester Smooth

                      Please get your hand out of my mouth, it’s extremely uncomfortable to have words stuffed in there all willy-nilly.

                    • OhioYanks

                      What words exactly?

              • LK

                Oh sure, I’m definitely not trying to say that Profar = Harper (though even Harper isn’t a lock for HOF or anything, particularly given his breakneck style of play). I’m just used to my friends’ eyes glazing over as soon as I mention the word “regression” and wanted to provide something more concrete. Comparable examples aren’t necessarily easy – 2010 has Heyward, but the Yanks only had 2 top 100 guys (Montero and Romine). 2009 would’ve been Jackson/Montero/Brackman for Wieters; that one’s probably pretty even depending on if you think Montero can actually establish himself in MLB and how you expect Jackson and Wieters to age.

                • Cool Lester Smooth

                  Yeah, I don’t have a problem for trading a bunch of mid-Top 100 guys for an elite prospect in principal, I just don’t think Profar is worth it.

                  • OhioYanks

                    Based on what?

                    • Cool Lester Smooth

                      Every scouting report I’ve read pegs him as a .280/.350/.440 guy who can play a good shortstop. That’s a very, very good player, but not worth breaking the bank for before he even plays a full season in the MLB.

                    • Jim Is Bored

                      A shortstop who hits to that line is absolutely worth breaking the bank for.

                    • Cool Lester Smooth

                      He’ll be worth breaking the bank for after his second year of producing like that, not when it’s just a projection.

                      And, call me crazy, but I think Sanchez has a shot at putting up a similar line at catcher. I’d trade Sanchez + one of those pieces for Profar, but I’m not throwing in all of them for a prospect.

                    • OhioYanks

                      But you aren’t saying either that the Yankees prospects are underrated or Profar’s overrated?

                      Maybe you don’t understand this, but you necessarily are. Historical results tell us he is worth multiple of them. If you aren’t willing to trade those guys, you are saying that their rankings are off.

                  • Robinson Tilapia

                    I suppose, at some point in time, that may be true, but that’s not where I want the New York Yankees to be at this time. I’d rather have a bunch of mid-guys and take the risk on them overperforming… this time.

                    It’s very hard for me to work with “in a vacuum.” I’m glad I went to sleep and let you all do the dirty work there.

            • nycsportzfan

              Well said LK! To many people on here don’t realize that more often then not, alot of these guys will either get hurt(banuelos and many others), not produce in the bigs to the level of a starter, or not make it at all. If you can get a true diffrence maker, or a guy who hasen’t came from nowhere and is supposed to be a real deal player and isn’t a surprise, sometimes it makes sense to give away multiple prospects. I also am not advocating for that paticular trade, but lifes a gamble, and thats what you have to do sometimes.

              Every trade ever brought up on here is ridiculed for being to much or to little. Its ridiculous!

              • Robinson Tilapia

                “It’s an extremely risky strategy that I don’t think suits the current state of the organization.”

                Actually, this one sentence from LK was what I really meant when I unintentionally threw this grenade.

                Profar’s a difference-maker already. Good one.

                • LK

                  Yeah, I’m guessing your “You cannot be serious” came across a little stronger than you may have intended, as you’re always one of the more level-headed ones on here. Either way, I enjoyed the resulting discussion a lot.

                  • Robinson Tilapia

                    It was more “I initially thought it was a dumb comment,” but you and the others brought good points on both ends to the table while I was sound asleep.

    • Laz

      Because we really want to empty our system for one prospect. Profar is great, but trading 4 top pieces for one fix is not a viable long term strategy. Staying competitive with a lower payroll is going to require that Yankees are smart with developing their prospects.

    • William Rast

      Daniels hangs up quick on that one. I might be in the minority on this one but no way they use Profar for those pieces nor should they. It’s Stanton or a piece like that or he’s not getting traded. You have to realistically look at it.

      You can look at Victor Wang’s research if you want a scientific answer.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        Well that would be the reason why he’d hang up. Yes. The Yankees would have their own reason, though.

        • Truth Serum

          I make that trade. The Yanks best player in that deal is 3 months younger than Profar and in A ball while Profar is a 20 yr old SS in the majors right now.

        • Truth Serum

          Profar has pretty much the same OPS in AA and AAA combined than Gary Sanchez does in hi-A this year!!! You’re hugging prospects too much if you don’t make that trade.

  • The Lime

    Culver – yeesh. Does he at least still have arm strength so that they can try to turn him into a pitcher?

    • http://deleted Richard Leo

      i heard that he can pitch at low-90

    • trr

      I think it’s still too soon for that

      • trr

        But I system to remember the team doing something like this in the past

        • trr

          Seem to remember- Christ, I’m going to bed….

  • forensic

    Dawe did have some help blowing that lead from Bello.

    But, 7 runs charged to him and he still gets a Hold. Gotta love it.

  • http://deleted Richard Leo

    Bird may become a serious 1B prospect

    • pat

      He always has been….

      • http://deleted Richard Leo

        until he shows nice power and cut down the Ks

        • OhioYanks

          Has light-tower power. Give it some time.

      • OhioYanks


      • Cool Lester Smooth

        I don’t know about that. Call me crazy, but I prefer my 20 year old 1B prospects to strike out less than 20% of the time in Low-A, not almost 25%, and have an ISO over .200 before calling them “serious”

        • OhioYanks

          You don’t have to be Bryce Harper to be a “serious” prospect. Why set arbitrary cutoffs for certain stats? Do you have any data to support those cutoffs being meaningful to future success? Is 20 really that different from 19 or 21?

          Let’s look at other “serious” 1B prospects around baseball (from Mayo’s top 10 1B prospects):

          #1 Singleton’s ISO wasn’t above .200 in A-ball and while he didn’t K 20% in Low A he did K 20% everywhere from there on.

          #2 Hunter Morris was at an 18.5 K% and an ISO below .200 at 21 in Low A.

          #3 Cron skipped Low A. #4 Ruf was 23 in Low A, and he did manage to break your criteria (16% and .217).

          #5 Matt Olson’s a year younger than Bird, but his ISO is below .200 and his K% is 26 in A ball. Bird is seriously out-producing him overall.

          #6 Dicherson skipped Low A, but hasn’t had an ISO of .200 at any level.

          #7 Vogelbach is Bird’s age and while King 17.5%, his ISO is below .200. Bird is seriously out-producing him overall.

          #8 Keon Barnum has barely played this season, but his 14 PAs were ugly.

          #9 Marrero met your criteria in Low A.

          #10 Christian Walker didn’t K at all in Low A this season (12%), but he also hit for little power (.121 ISO).

          So… almost none of Mayo’s top 10 IB prospects met your criteria. Either just about no 1B prospects are “serious” or Bird is a pretty decent prospect.

          For what it’s worth, ML starting 1B types like Trumbo, Rizzo, and Hosmer (the latter two being serious prospects at one time) didn’t meet your criteria either. Freeman did make it, though his overall stats were right in line with Bird at Low A.

          • Cool Lester Smooth

            First of all, being 20 is different than being 19 or 21. A 19 year old is young for Low-A. A 21 year old is old for Low-A. Bird is facing age-appropriate competition right now and, as a true 1B, he needs to be dominant offensively, because he won’t always be rocking a .390 BABIP.

            I’m not saying Bird isn’t a good prospect, he’s definitely got a nice bat, but it’s hard as shit to be a top prospect as a 1B, especially considering how high the bar is offensively at 1B, especially in the AL East. He’s a good prospect for a true 1B, but there aren’t a lot of 20 year old true 1Bs making top prospect lists in Low-A.

            As for some of your examples,

            Singleton had almost the exact same stat line as Bird when he was 20, he just did it in AA, rather than Low-A.

            Rizzo hit 20 homers in AA as a 20 year old, with a .217 ISO.

            Hosmer split his age 20 season between A+ and AA, hitting .338/.406/.571, including a .313/.365/.615 line in AA, all while striking out less than 13% of the time.

            Again, the bar to be a top prospect at 1B is incredibly high. The fact that a player doesn’t yet meet it does not mean that they won’t become a good player. I mean, Joey Votto wasn’t considered Top 100 worthy until he was 23, and Paul Goldschmidt never made a list. It just means that they do not yet project to be impact players at the MLB level.

            • YankeeGrunt

              Age is pretty arbitrary considering he missed the better part of two full seasons with injury.

            • MoMoney

              You’re basically listing every prospect stereotype out there.

              Age doesn’t matter nearly as much as you say. Different prospects develop at different speeds. There’s no one right formula. “Age appropriate” is a generalization you cannot apply to every individual case. Bird in not a 23 year old college guy tearing up Low A. It’s his first full season stint and it’s one year different from where you’d like him to be.

              Is Votto and Goldshmidt not making the top 100 list an indication that no 1B ever should or that maybe there is a flaw in traditional prospect rankings?

              You are ultimately arguing over semantics. “Serious” prospect doesn’t mean top 100 prospect. You literally say he is a good prospect. No one said top 100. That is a strawmen. He is doing as well as the top 10 1B prospects in MLB.,. That is a serious prospect.

              And, by the way, the one prospect truism you missed is that nearly all top prospects sport huge BABIP through the low minors. That’s not unusual, but his numbers still match up with the best 1B in the game at that level.

              • Cool Lester Smooth

                I guess we have different definitions of “serious prospect.” I think a serious prospect means borderline top 100. Bird’s not there, and he won’t be until he shows more power and starts striking out less. The fact that he’s not there yet doesn’t mean that he won’t ever get there, though.

                Being a top 10 first base prospect is not the same thing as being a serious prospect, because not all of the top 10 1B prospects project as major league starters. He’s a great prospect for a first baseman, but that in and of itself does not make him a serious prospect.

                • OhioYanks

                  Don’t think many people would agree with that definition.

                  Bird is a serious prospect by any reasonable definition.

          • Fin

            I have read several times that just about no first baseman in MiLB are prospects because they aren’t competing against just other first baseman but just about every hitter in the system, since just about anyone can play 1B. So for a prospect that can only play first base he has to be a better hitter than all the other guys or they just move the better hitter to 1B. I think fangraphs had something on it.

            • Cool Lester Smooth

              Exactly, not to mention that every other player in the farm system is a better defensive 1B than a guy who’s already stuck there in A-ball.

              • MoMoney

                You areseriously taking stereotypes to the extreme. that is just a laughable comment.

                • Cool Lester Smooth

                  Fine, every infielder in the system is better at 1B than a 20 year old who is already athletically incapable of playing any other position on the diamond.

                  I challenge you to show me an elite defensive first baseman that started out as a 1B in A-Ball.

                  • Preston

                    Bird is at 1b because of injury. He looked like he had an adequate chance to stick at C before the back problems.

                    • Cool Lester Smooth

                      So, what you’re saying is that he’s physically incapable of playing a position other than 1B?

                    • OhioYanks

                      Not sure that he ever had much chance to stick at C.

                  • OhioYanks

                    That challenge is a joke. Both of this season’s top two defensive 1B according to fangraphs were 1B in A ball. Belt and Hosmer. (Belt played some OF coming up, but was primarily a 1B.) Goldy, Loney… most of them did. Justin Morneau moved off C before full-season ball, too.

                    You seem to have no idea what you are talking about, and just repeating stereotypes as MoMoney said earlier.

                    Keith Hernandez, Mark Grace, Pete O’Brien, Todd Helton, Travis Lee, Wally Joyner… a hug portion of the top defensive 1B in the past few generations came in as pros at 1B. (John Olerud bypassed the minors and Tino bypassed A ball, but both came right in as a 1B.)

                    Different positions require different types of athleticism. The quick 5-9 middle IF might not actually make a great 1B defensively, and if really unlikely to make it their offensively.

            • MoMoney

              Prospect is a pretty general term. A whole lot of guys are prospects. 1B is a tougher position to find a real top prospect at for those reasons. That doesn’t mean that none of the guys there are at least prospects.

              Bird is out-producing just about everyone in the Yankees’ system this season with a .402 wOBA. That’s not to say he’s at all their top prospect and we might soon get to see how he handles High A, but he is what I think anyone would call a “serious” prospect.

  • The Oberamtmann

    How will having two GCLs affect future promotions? Any danger of “too many prospects”?

    • BronxBombers?

      “Too many prospects”…….not sure if serious

      • The Oberamtmann

        I put it in quotes because I’m genuinely curious about how having a GCL affects promotions and so forth, but I recognize that “too many prospects” is an awesome problem to have.

        • Preston

          Doubtful, most guys don’t make it to the next level. It just means we can take more fliers on lottery ticket types, and make sure everybody is getting plenty of playing time. Having the extra team didn’t give us a bigger draft or international FA budget, so it’s not like we are bringing in 25 more legit prospects, just 25 more baseball bodies.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      Please, bring on that danger.

      • Pat D

        And give it a zone.

        • Cool Lester Smooth

          DANGER ZONE!

          You know, like Top Gun. Get it, Lana?

          • MannyGeee


  • Different Josh

    The K’s are a little concerning for a guy of O’Neill’s pedigree, but its nice to see him getting some hits.

    • Bo Knows

      He was always a hacker, no such thing as a bad pitch for him. If he can learn a little discipline it would go a long way for him.

  • KCSwiss

    Seriously! 3-4 a single, double, homer, and two walks for Torrens! Very impressed by him so far.

  • Stephen

    Hey, what’s up with Jose Mesa Jr.? Not on any roster? Did we not spend decent money on him last year?

    • Andy In Sunny Daytona

      I know I sent in a $50 check to help cover his cost.

  • Bavarian Yankee

    what happened to the Austin watch? Did Mike stop it or am I not able to see it? To me it just shows Austin’s picture, no stats at all. I’m using Chrome fwiw.

  • Matt :: Sec110

    I truly love this section of the site. A quick hit recap of all things Yankee minor leagues is a great way to keep tabs.

    That being said…we have no shot at Stanton or Headley. Most of our talent is low, and most of is doing shit. JR Murphy has helped his case the most I’d say though.

  • Mick tayor

    How good of a prospect is Kyle roller?

    • nycsportzfan

      I asked mike about Kyle Roller and Rob Segedin in the weekly chat the other day, and he said Rollers got a chance because of his abiity to hit some, and hit for some power. Hes a mid level prospect who will make it for his bat if anything. Dude is a monster at 6ft 1in 250lbs! I’d love to see him take a few AB’s at that size.

      • nycsportzfan

        Also Roller is hitting 343BA off of lefties! Pretty impressive!

  • nycsportzfan

    O’Brien continues to mash! That guys got a ML bat!

  • nycsportzfan

    Yanks have alot of thumpers in there system. I will certainly say that! Alot of big guys with pop and MLB ready frames. Segedin, O’Brien, Roller, Bird, Sanchez, Austin(fairly good frame)..etc

  • Cool Lester Smith

    Jesus. That LK needs a girlfriend. Or boyfriend. Whatever. A little too much time on his hands.

    • Cool Lester Smooth

      If you’re going to impersonate me to talk shit about someone else, at least get my name right, shithead.

  • Don’t mess with the Jesus

    FWIW…after all the talk about Harper in this thread and comparing him to Profar and blah blah blah…I would take Machado over both of them any day of the week.

    • Cool Lester Smooth

      Then you’re nuts.