Wednesday Night Open Thread

January 8, 2014 by Mike Axisa 53 Comments

The Hall of Fame announcement circus is finally over and three very deserving players are heading to Cooperstown this July. I will now point out the Yankees beat Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine four times in their five combined starts during the 1996 and 1999 World Series (the one win is above) while holding Frank Thomas to his lowest OPS against any AL team, proving once again that the Yankees rule the baseball universe. In all seriousness though, congrats to the three of them. Glavine was great and both Maddux and Thomas were among the most dominant players in history.

Here is your open thread for the night. The Rangers and Nets are the only local teams playing. Talk about the Hall of Fame, those games, or whatever else right here. You folks know what to do, so have at it.

Brooklyn Ed

Armando Benitez, Jacque Jones and Kenny Rogers each received one Hall of Fame vote.

Biggio was TWO votes short of induction.
- Alex
  
  Who ever voted for those 3 should’ve been aborted before it was too late.
  - Crime Dog
    
    I hope its one person who voted for all three. Would be hilarious
- BBWAA should burn in hell
  
  J.T Snow got two votes…
  - Jersey Joe
    
    Oh dear.
- Jersey Joe
  
  I know that the BR hitters rankings are kind of irrelevant, but Jones is just three spots ahead of Tony Womack.
  
  Tony. Womack.
Big John Stud

Glavine is overrated especially as compared to Pettitte – it’s the win total which is just dumb. Glavine pitched in the easier division his whole career. Look what Andy did in Houston.
Dale Mohorcic

http://www.nytimes.com/1992/12/10/sports/baseball-maddux-bolts-and-yankees-feel-jilted.html

I know the Yankees got Jimmy Key instead and he was very good (though very much not a sure thing at the time), but I remember being so disappointed that the Yankees didn’t sign Maddux. At the time there was an article somewhere that talked about how he liked to just stay in his room playing video games and that he didn’t want to be in New York. Of course, so many things would have been different if the Yankees had Maddux that maybe they wouldn’t have won 4 titles in 5 years.
- Big John Stud
  
  Stick Michael was giving Maddux everything he wanted. He just didn’t want the Yankees.
  - RetroRob
    
    Certainly understandable why Maddux would have reservations about coming to NY. They hadn’t been in the postseason since the early 80s, had totally collapsed to a team that would have the worst record in MLB, and there was the craziness of George Steinbrenner looming in the background that made the Yankees for one of the few times in its history a place where players didn’t want to go. That of course was all about to change and should serve as a reminder that no matter how well a team appears to be doing, or how bad a team appears to be doing, it can all change pretty rapidly.
    
    For the record, I loved the Jimmy Key signing. A very underrated pitcher in Yankee history.
- Kramerica Industries
  
  how he liked to just stay in his room playing video games
  
  that’s weird, because usually he played his video games on the pitchers’ mound.
Big John Stud

Compare:

Glavine: 118 ERA+, 1.314 WHIP, 8.8 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 5.3 K/9
Pettitte: 117 ERA+, 1.351 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 6.6 K/9

The only difference is that hit rate, and Andy was often facing very good #9 hitters versus pitchers. That easily explains the extra hit per nine innings.

Even if we give Glavine the benefit for the extra 1000 innings in his career, his results still aren’t that much better.

Bottomline: If Glavine is in the HOF, then Andy belongs too. But Glavine sure as heck ain’t a first ballot.
- Alex
  
  Unfortunately Pettite won’t get a hall of fame nod for his admitting he took HGH even though he deserves to be in. But I do agree with you that Glavine shouldn’t have been a first ballot hof’er. Biggio shouldve gotten in.
- BarryL
  
  I like Andy as much as anyone else. He was my favorite pitcher from the minute he was called up. However, the eye test (at least in my opinion) is that Glavine in his prime was that much more dominant than Pettitte was.
  - vicki
    
    i can’t bring myself to use the expression “eye test” but i’ll tell you what i think speaks to voters. while both pitchers tooks their turns in excellent rotations, maddux was categorical ace of his, nearly every year.
  - Big John Stud
    
    Glavine was also *always* pitching in a much more inferior league and division. An old Pettitte absolutely dominated the NL in 2005. That peak year was as good as any that Glavine put up.
- Wicomico Pinstripes
  
  So are you saying you would not vote for Glavine or Pettitte the first time around if the BBWAA deemed you worthy?
  - Big John Stud
    
    Well, I’m of the view that a HOFer is always a HOFer – no matter the ballot. Rank the top 10 each year. Then again I’m a big Hall kind of guy. And yet I still wouldn’t find room for Jim Rice or Curt Schilling!
    - Macho Man “Randy Levine”
      
      Even though Schilling bests Pettitte (by a lot) in all the stats you cited except HR/9.
      
      So you’ve lost all credibility because you’ve admitted you wouldn’t elect a guy because you personally dislike him. I fucking hate Schilling and I’d vote for him (though he’d have been squeezed off this year due to ballot limit).
- Now Batting
  
  I’m sorry but Glavine had a ten year stretch where in 8 years his ERA+ was 126 or higher plus had a couple more really good seasons. Andy can’t touch that kind of track record. Also you can’t bitch about wins when Andy played for the Yankees most of his career and had Mo closing. Wins don’t mean a lot but 18+ years of data help support them more. Finally, Glavine pitched to a late age but was pretty damn good in doing it. 200 IP and a 97 ERA+ in his final full season.
  - Big John Stud
    
    Who is bitching about wins? They are overrated as a meaningful metric. That’s a fact.
    
    Glavine and Pettite were the same pitcher, by peripheral stats. Glavine just pitched 6 more seasons. I have little doubt that Pettitte with just 3 more years hits 300 wins. Then he’s a first ballot? That’s insane and stupid.
    
    Just as insane? That a 126 ERA+ is ah-maze-zing!!! It’s very good, not great. That describes Glavine. And Pettitte – who put up a 108 ERA+ in *his* last season.
    - Big John Stud
      
      One more point: Look at those peripherals again. Pettitte was giving up fewer walks and getting more Ks facing a DH almost his whole career instead of a pitcher.
      
      Pettitte was the better pitcher.
    - Now Batting
      
      Pettitte put up a 126 six times in his career, 3 of which were abbreviated seasons. To reach 300 in 3 years he’d have to put up his 2007-9 win totals + 1. Peripherals mean nothing to me when looking back on a full career. You no longer have a sample to project but a population of what actually happened. Glavine had the better career overall and especially when giving weight to a sustained period of high performance.
      - Big John Stud
        
        In a weaker division. In a weaker league. Against pitchers, not DHs.
        
        Peripherals matter since the context varies. Ks and BBs are the only outcomes directly under the pitcher’s control. Pettitte was better on both while giving up no more home runs and not even one extra hit per 9. Facing DHs.
        
        Then there’s the other stuff. Pettitte was better in the post-season. He had a HOF pick off move.
        
        Now Batting
        
        You need to figure out what ERA+ is and come back.
        
        Big John Stud
        
        Good one! Hahahaha.
        
        Because you have no clue.
        
        “It adjusts a pitcher’s earned run average (ERA) according to the pitcher’s ballpark (in case the ballpark favors batters or pitchers) and the ERA of the pitcher’s league.
        
        In other words, the differences between leagues isn’t accounted for.
        
        Glavine pitched in the easier league and winds up with the same ERA+ and worse peripherals.
        
        Pettitte was the better pitcher.
        
        Now Batting
        
        Yes, it weighs the pitcher against every pitcher with the same lineup rules (DH), thereby negating the league difference.
        
        Big John Stud
        
        Wrong. Again. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.
        
        You are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts.
        
        ERA+ normalizes within the league, not across leagues.
        
        Two pitchers can have identical years, one in the AL and one in the NL. The AL pitcher will have the better ERA+ because their league has more offense.
        
        Look at Pedro and Maddux in 2004. A very close ERA (.12 runs difference). Pedro pitched 14% better. That’s a very big difference.
        
        Bryan
        
        This has got to be one of the worst reasoned arguments ever.
        
        Glavine has a total WAR close to double of Pettittes (113.9 vs 68.4), almost 1400 more innings, a full walk per 9 less, a lower HR rate and lower BABIP. He threw 200+ innings in 13 straight seasons before just getting 199 1/3 in 02…he then proceeded to have four more 200 ip seasons. Andy had 10 total seasons over 200 IP.
        
        And for the sugarcoating…
        
        “Not surprisingly, that 1995 season posted by Maddux is one of the best of all time. By ERA- (and minimum 150 innings pitched), it’s the 5th best run prevention season in baseball history. Only it’s not even Maddux’s best year, as his 1994 season ranks 3rd on that list. Two of the top five seasons in baseball history, in terms of run prevention relative to the league average, belong to Greg Maddux.
        
        And remember, he threw 200 innings in both of those seasons despite the strike reducing his number of starts, so he wasn’t just getting lifted early and letting the bullpen strand his runners. In 1994, he averaged more than 8 innings per start. He went at least 7 innings in 22 of the 25 starts he made that year, and threw 9 innings in 11 of them. He put up the third best ERA- in baseball history in a season in which he basically never let his bullpen in the game.”
        
        Pettitte was a decent pitcher. Maddux was a great pitcher. Pettitte may have pitched in a tougher league. But don’t act like Andy was so freaking amazing in Houston. He had one good season at 177 ERA+. That would have equaled Maddux’s 5th best. Ho-hum. Andy’s other two seasons? 111 and 106. Good for 15th and 19th on Maddux’s career. Pettitte was never ever anywhere near as good as Maddux. Stop it.
- RetroRob
  
  Glavine is also a pitcher who exceeded his peripherals for basically his entire career. That wasn’t a fluke. He was an outlier. He was better than Pettitte, and I’m a big Andy fan.
vicki

do you suppose that was the last time maddux was truly happy? as of the next night there was a new sheriff in town.
- nsalem
  
  Sadly I admit that I gave up on Game 2 when the Yankees fell behind 3-0. I was working and shut off the radio. I was thinking nice try, nice season and the Braves were on there way to a sweep with back to back titles much the way the Reds dominated us in 1976 on their way to their second ring in a row. They seemed to be such a dominant team and it’s a mystery to me how that group wound up with one championship season. Just shows how hard it is to win 3 postseason series in October and makes the Yankees accomplishments over that 5 year strectch so awesome.
Nathan

The Yankees have always and will always be my team but the mid/late 90s Braves teams were fun to watch. Galarraga was a beast and I remember thinking how fortunate the Yankees were to have avoided him in ’99 (cancer).

I’d give the edge to Pettitte over Glavine but I’m biased.
- Big John Stud
  
  And that’s it, isn’t it? In a big game – Pettitte or Glavine?
  
  Pettitte came up bigger.
  - forensic
    
    Glavine’s postseason ERA is more than a half run lower than Pettitte’s. Pettitte had some terrific big games, he also had plenty of big game implosions.
    - Big John Stud
      
      And yet, Glavine had a losing record in the post-season.
      - forensic
        
        So, before you say looking at the win totals are dumb, and yet now he’s worse because he had a losing record?
        
        I’m sure it had nothing to do with the Yankees generally being a better team than the Braves…
        
        Big John Stud
        
        The playoffs by their nature are small samples. Average results go out the window for pitchers. Winning is all that matters.
        
        In 1996, the Braves were considered the better team. And in general, the Braves underperformed in the playoffs.
        
        Look, I’m just annoyed that Glavine is so over rated. And for this stupid story that him and Maddux go “in” together. It’s dumb. Glavine was a very good pitcher. But he’s no where close to Maddux.
Darren

Fuckin Selig.
Nedro

“Proving once again that the Yankees rule the baseball universe”

YEAH BITCH
EndlessJose

Pettitte played in the hard AL and Glavine played in the easy NL and if you were to switch there teams around Pettitte career would be simlar to Glavines.

Lets be honest Glavine and Maddux would have never had the same careers if they pitched in the AL east.Maddux was a great pitcher but he wasn’t Pedro or Johnson.
- Big John Stud
  
  I disagree hard on Maddux. His peak (1992-1998) was insane:
  
  127 W 53 L, .706 WPCT, 2.15 ERA, 190 ERA+, 0.968 WHIP, 7.3 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 1.4 BB/9, 6.9 K/9
  
  Wins are lame, but winning 70% of his starts?
  90% better than his league?
  Fewer base runners than innings pitched…for 7 years?
  
  That’s what annoys me about Glavine. Maddux completely, and utterly, out classes him. Glavine belongs no where in the same discussion.
forensic

holding Frank Thomas to his lowest OPS against any AL team,

He’s got a .400 OBP against all but one team (and his long-time White Sox) and a .500 SLG against all but two teams. I know, hitting era and all, but still…

That’s, ummm, pretty good…
- nsalem
  
  After his 8th or 9th season Thomas had the 3rd highest OPB in 20th and 21th century baseball behind Williams and Ruth. He also has the 3rd highest OPB over his entire career for any right hand batter.
Chilibaca

Anybody have any thoughts on the Deadspin/Dan Le Batard ballot? Personally I have no problem with it, and I think the choices on the ballot are pretty solid.
- forensic
  
  I like how the esteemed, revered, and mature baseball writers reacted so calmly to it all.
  
  Especially the one who kept calling him ‘Tard’…
  - Betty Lizard
    
    I don’t see how having a “collaborative” ballot destroys the non-existent integrity of HOF balloting.
- Chip Rodriguez
  
  I like it a lot more than the ballot turned in with only Jack Morris’ name highlighted.
- Brian in MA
  
  As a Deadspin/HOF voter, I loved it, and the ballot Le Batard turned in was a good one. Yes, voters are asked to consider non-measurable things like “integrity” (ty cobb had LOADS of it) and everything, but the fact of the matter is, even with alleged steroid use, Bonds and Clemens were arguable the best of their eras, and competing against other batters and pitchers who were likely using PEDs as well. We can use some advanced (though somewhat imperfect stats, like WAR) to say that, even in an era of inflated stats based on PED use (quietly encouraged by team execs) those guys were still historically great.
Greg C

Usually,(on other blogs) I see all kinds of Mussina v. Glavine comparisons- showing that Mussina was statistically superior, of course.

Now here I see Glavine v. Pettitte comparisons. I take it that it’s already well accepted here that Mussina is HOF-worthy and comparable to Glavine, right?

I noticed in a lot of public ballots, Mussina was the 11th choice. I was hoping Biggio would get in to clear more of the backlog. Mussina’s PUBLIC support as far as the ballots shared online and tabulated by the Gizmo, was up around 33% before dropping off down to around 26%. He must’ve received as little 17% as support from the voters who didn’t share their ballots. That seems to indicate his case is stronger with the newer “sabermetric guys.”

The thing about Mussina, when compared to the cause celebre of the “old school” anti-stats writers- Jack Morris, is that Mussina is clearly superior from both “old” and “new” school statistics. He had the Wins, ERA, Ks, BBs, K/BB numbers and the ERA+, WAR, JAWs. He also had a superior post-season performance, from the standpoint of performance measures pitchers can actually control.

With Jack Morris dropping off and 3 guys elected, I don’t think the glut should be as bad next year. There are, what, 2 Sure HOFers coming in next year? They should both go in right away. Anybody else? This year, there were AT LEAST 15 candidates worthy of serious HOF consideration on the ballot, and 5 were new guys. I can’t see Mussina being lower than 10th for anybody next year, and even higher for “anti-PED” suspicion voters. But who knows if the trend of voters filling the ballots will continue. I hope so. Anybody who votes for 1 person, or 4 or 5- especially if the 1 or few votes are for guys not even in the top 17 of the ballot in worthiness- those guys suck.
- RetroRob
  
  There are three eventual HOFers coming next year. I am not convinced Smotlz makes in year one but he will eventually. So three were elected this year, and Morris is gone, but three high quality candidates are coming, and that doesn’t even included Gary Sheffied, who I believe is on next year’s ballot. He won’t get elected, but he will cause more ballot glut.
  
  So it will still be a mess glut wise next year!
nsalem

I guess this isn’t the place to be supportive of a Mariner, but it was sad to see Edgar’s ballot percentage drop. I just mentioned that Thomas had the 3rd highest OPB for a RH in the history of the game and notice that Martinez was one point lower in 4th spot. Thomas averaged 60 games or so a year playing in the field (mostly when he was younger) and Martinez averaged 30 games a year most of those games in the field were from his younger years. Except for the dozen or so more homers Thomas averaged per year there doesn’t seem to be much of a difference glancing at their stats. Thomas was fortunate to start playing regularly at the age of 23 while Edgar didn’t start playing regularly until age 27. I wonder why it took so long for the Mariners to bring him up. They weren’t exactly a great team in the late 80’s and very early 90’s and Martinez was putting up some great numbers at Calgary. I know the PCL numbers are always inflated but I don’t think he should have been DOTF for so long.
Kiko Jones

First of all, you’re either a HoFer or you’re not. So, by extension, everyone who is HoF worthy is a first ballot HoFer. But some revamping needs to be done.

Before going any further, the rolls of HoF voters needs to be combed thru so that the folks who have NO ATTACHMENT to baseball—some of these folks aren’t even fans!—can be weeded out and stripped of their vote. Then, a portion of the voting bloc MUST be comprised of players and fans—it can’t all be the petty mofos of the BBWAA, who have demonstrated they are not worthy of the exclusive nature of their vote. Once an iron-clad criteria that is NOT open to interpretation has been established to select the HoFers, then, even if there are 5 or 50 eligible candidates that year, THEY ALL GO IN. The current system is broken almost beyond repair.

PS: It is beyond stupid to admit the intention of committing a crime in a public forum, but if they pull some crap 5 years from now, when it’s Mo’s turn to go to Cooperstown, I will burn the BBWAA building down to the ground.

“Don’t worry,” you say. “They’re not that out of touch.” So you think they’re not capable of that level of stupidity? Ask Craig Biggio. Or Ron Santo’s family. Or revisit 2013.