Got eleven questions in the mailbag this week. I didn’t have the energy for more. Sorry. As always, RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com is the place to send your questions.
Roberto asks: What do you think the odds are of A-Rod serving as a hitting coach further down the road (similar to Bonds), and if so, could you see it being with the Yankees?
Very small. Alex Rodriguez wants to own a team, not coach or manage. I’m sure he’ll happily do the guest instructor thing — and the broadcaster thing, for that matter — for a while because he loves the game, but a full-time coach? Nah. Alex is not going to put himself through the grind anymore. He’s made too much money to do that. A-Rod wants to own a club one day — Future Rays Owner Alex Rodriguez sure has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it? — and he’ll work towards that.
Chris asks: What do you think Yo Soy Gary’s ceiling is? Posada like?
That’s not fair to Gary Sanchez. Jorge Posada is a borderline Hall of Famer who caught 120+ games a year for nearly a decade while putting up huge offensive numbers. If Sanchez does anything close to that, it’ll be incredible. I do think Gary has All-Star upside. Perennial All-Star upside. Sanchez has the talent to hit something like .280/.340/.480 with 25+ dingers on an annual basis, and in this day and age, that’ll make him one of the best catchers in baseball. Plus he’s a decent enough defender with a rocket arm. Can I say Brian McCann-like rather than Posada-like? McCann was really good for a really long time, you know.
Jason asks: Is Melancon a better choice than Jansen or Chapman? Is he even in the same ballpark? I know you don’t like the off-the-field stuff with Chapman and neither do I. His lack of a second pitch also worries me. Jansen will be given the qualifying offer and will cost a first round pick. If you had your druthers, which reliever would you sign and how much would you be willing to pay him?
In the ballpark, sure, but Mark Melancon is clearly a notch below Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen. Still really good! Just a notch below the other two. I prefer Jansen even with the draft pick compensation. Something about 96 mph cutters with command gets me excited. My guess is Jansen — and Chapman for that matter — winds up with something like $16M a year for four or five years.
Melancon is insanely consistent year-to-year. You can pencil him for a 24% strikeout rate, a 4% walk rate, and a 57% ground ball rate (or thereabouts) every year. His velocity is slipping a little bit now that he’s over 30, though raw velocity isn’t as important to Melancon is it some other guys (coughChapmancough). He uses a cutter and curveball to disrupt timing and miss barrels. Melancon might get four years and $40M or so, and he won’t cost a draft pick either.
Travis asks: If the return was high enough (remember it IS Dombrowski at the helm), would you trade Betances to Boston and sign two of Jansen, Chapman or Melancon?
Would I trade Dellin Betances to the Red Sox? Sure. Depends on the return, of course. It’s not my neck on the line though. I can’t imagine ownership is willing to stomach trading a very popular — and very productive — homegrown Yankee to the Red Sox of all teams. They could get the greatest prospects in all the land in return and that’s still enough to make you squeamish. Imagine watching Betances close out a World Series for the Red Sox. Yuck.
As I’ve said more times than I can to count, I’m open to trading anyone. The Yankees have no untouchables as far as I’m concerned. The bullpen market is pretty insane right now, and if a team wants to pony up big for Dellin, the Yankees would be foolish not to listen. Especially since they could restock the bullpen with top notch arms through free agency.
Jackson asks: Do you think Ronald Torreyes could fetch any trade value this winter? He’s still only 23, can play three positions (and outfield in a pinch) and had some stretches where he hit very well. It seems like there is no place in the organization for him going forward besides being a utility man but would another team want to take a chance on him? Love the blog, thanks for all that you do.
His trade value is tiny. The guy’s been on waivers like five times in the last two years. Torreyes is a really nice utility player. He makes a ton of contact and can play all over the infield, plus he plays with a ton of energy. That’s basically everything you want in a bench player. But the Yankees got this guy (and Tyler Olson!) for Rob Segedin, remember. There are other Ronald Torreyeses out there waiting to be traded for other Rob Segedins. These players aren’t that hard to find. Torreyes is a useful piece. He just has no trade value. Players like this very rarely do.
Steve asks: What are your thoughts on a potential Bartolo Colon or Hiroki Kuroda reunion (assuming of course he changes his mind about retiring)? With a weak FA SP market, if they can’t find any of the young cost controlled starters they are looking for on the trade market, maybe higher value one year deals with one of these guys would not be the worst investment in the world, especially if the 2017/18 FA class is the one they want to wait for for long term investments.
I have no reason to think Kuroda will un-retire — he just retired last week! — but if he does, give him a one-year contract. Nothing but love for Kuroda. Bring him back no questions asked. As for Colon, I don’t trust him in the AL, especially in a small ballpark. These days his four-seamer and two-seamer average 86-89 mph and they’re basically all he throws. The guy is going to turn 44 in May. Not sure how much longer he’ll be effective. I’d rather not be left holding the bag whenever it finally goes for good. It seems inevitable the Mets will re-sign him anyway, so this is a moot point. There’s just way too much downside to Colon. Same with Kuroda given his age (42 in February), really, but I love him and am irrational about it. So sue me.
Reginald asks: Since Lourdes Gurriel’s birthday has passed and he can be signed as a free agent without any international restrictions, what is the possibility of the Yankees signing him to further the youth movement? AND has there been any more movement concerning him?
No movement yet, as far as I know. Gurriel held a workout a few weeks back and that’s really it. His 23rd birthday was last month, which means the international spending restrictions no longer apply, allowing him to sign a contract of any size. There’s no real rush to sign now though. The season’s over. It’s not like Gurriel is missing out on games. He’ll sign soon enough. As for the Yankees, the odds of them signing any big name Cuban free agent are low. They haven’t signed one since Jose Contreras. Until they give me reason to believe they’re willing to be aggressive with that market again, I assume they’ll dip their toe in the pool but not dive in.
Dave asks: Howdy, Mike. After reading Pleskoff’s scouting report on Kaprielian, it appears that the Yanks’ best starting pitching prospect has a ceiling of a # 2/3. That’s very useful, but is it fair to say – given the present state of the game, with fewer & fewer aces hitting the FA market – that the Yanks only path to acquiring a true ace is via trade?
Yep. I agree with that. Well, I mean, the Yankees already have an ace in Masahiro Tanaka. Maybe one day he’ll get the recognition he deserves. The team’s only path to acquiring another true ace is trade, and they have the prospect ammo to make it happen. They could absolutely put together a package good enough to get Chris Sale, for example. The question is whether they want to make a move like that, or keep the kids for themselves. I can see both sides of that argument. Right now, I’m on team #KeepTheKids. The Yankees desperately need offensive help and they have some premium bats coming. Grow the bats, buy the arms.
Adam asks: What about Ian Desmond as a signing for the Yankees? He had a solid year and will cost a draft pick, but his potential defensive flexibility makes him an enticing “backup” for most infield and outfield spots. In particular, I wonder if he might displace Castro or Headley or perhaps even Gardner or Ellsbury if one is traded. What might it take to sign him?
It already feels like Desmond’s next contract will be loaded with regret for whichever team signs him, assuming it’s a decent deal and not another one-year contract. He hit .322/.375/.524 (138 wRC+) in the first half this year and .238/.283/.347 (65 wRC+) in the second half. That’s after hitting .233/.290/.384 (83 wRC+) last year. Desmond’s first half this year was the outlier, not the second half.
Also, I don’t see how he has defensive flexibility. He’s never played an infield position other than shortstop, and he has one year of experience in the outfield. I don’t think you can pay Desmond big bucks and assume a) the first half was the real him, and b) he can play a bunch of positions he’s never played before. He took to the outfield this year, so maybe he can do it. How much would you be willing to bet on it though? Desmond is a boom or bust player, and now that he’s over 30, the scales0 tip more toward bust with each passing day.
Andrew asks: Could you please discuss how many options Jacob Lindgren has left and if he will qualify for a fourth option because he has been injured? Also if the Yanks put him on the 60 Day DL for all of 2017, will he accrue MLB service time which would impact his becoming arbitration eligible some day?
Lindgren has one minor league option left and he’ll qualify for a fourth. The Yankees burned his first minor league option last season, when they sent him down following his initial call-up. They burned his second option this year, when they sent him down at the end of Spring Training. Because Lindgren suffered his elbow injury while in the minors this year, I’m pretty sure the Yankees can option him down again next year rather than place him on the MLB DL and allow him accrue service time.
There are a few different ways for a player to qualify for a fourth option and I don’t fully understand all of them. The easiest way is the one that will likely apply to Lindgren. If a player burns his three options within the first five professional seasons, he gets a fourth option. So assuming the Yankees use Lindgren’s third option next year rather than put him on the MLB DL, they’ll get a fourth option for 2018. Got it? Good.
Justin asks: What teams would (if any) have any level of interest in Jacoby Ellsbury?
Gosh, I don’t know. Teams that need a center fielder and either a leadoff or two-hole hitter are the obvious starting point. I guess that means the Nationals and Rangers? Possibly the Tigers too? The Astros, Indians, White Sox, Giants, and Cubs could also fit that criteria depending on how free agency shakes out. The Yankees are going to have to eat a bunch of money to trade Ellsbury. That’s just the reality of the situation. Either they’ll have to eat money or take a terrible contract in return. The odds are very strongly in favor of Ellsbury remaining with the Yankees next year and for the final four years of his contract.