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White Sox 5, Yankees 2: Another series loss to a rebuilding team in the Bronx

April 14, 2019 by Mike

Three series at Yankee Stadium, three series losses. The opponents? The Orioles, Tigers, and White Sox. That is truly pathetic and should not be waved off because of the injuries or as baseball being baseball. Some organizational introspection is required. The Yankees continued their rotten start to the season with a 5-2 loss to the ChiSox on Sunday. They have lost nine of their first 15 games for only the second time since 2005 and the first time since 2016. The Yankees sold at the deadline that year.

(Presswire)

Tanaka Unravels
Masahiro Tanaka’s afternoon unraveled very quickly in the fourth inning. He retired eight of the first ten batters he faced — one of the two baserunners was thrown out trying to steal second — with six strikeouts, and looked to be in total control of the ballgame. When Aaron Judge threw Yoan Moncada out at second trying to stretch a single into a double to start the fourth, it seemed the bad rebuilding White Sox would go away quietly on getaway day.

The Moncada single-turned-out — twice in his first two at-bats he ripped the ball into the right field corner — was both a gift out and a bad sign. Jose Abreu followed with a double to left field, then Tanaka nibbled himself into serious trouble. He got ahead in the count 1-2 on Yonder Alonso and walked him, and got ahead in the count 2-2 on Eloy Jimenez and walked him. Those were only the third and fourth walks of the season for Tanaka.

Tanaka went from being in control of Sunday’s game to having the bases loaded with one out in the blink of an eye. The first four batters of the fourth inning reached base when you include Moncada’s single-turned-out. The fifth batter of the inning, Tim Anderson, cleared the bases and then some with an opposite field grand slam off the top of the wall. The 0-1 splitter was, uh, poorly located:

Yikes. Instead of splitting down, the splitter split from left to right, and right into Anderson’s bat. Tanaka gave up four runs in the fourth inning after allowing four runs (three earned) in his first 21.2 innings of the season. All you need to know about Tanaka’s start is right here:

  • First time through the lineup: 2-for-9 (.222) with five strikeouts
  • Thereafter: 5-for-8 (.625) with three walks and one strikeout

I thought letting Tanaka face Moncada with runners on the corners and no outs in the fifth inning (later runners at second and third with no outs following a stolen base) was insane given Moncada’s first two at-bats. He crushed two rockets (110.5 mph and 107.6 mph exit velocities) to right field, the small part of the park. There was no rocket this time. Just a walk to load the bases, ending Tanaka’s afternoon.

Tanaka’s final line: 4 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 HR on 81 pitches. Luis Cessa inherited the bases loaded with no outs in the fifth inning and allowed just one run on a sacrifice fly, which, all things considered, is a good outcome. It was a long sacrifice fly that required Judge to make a leaping catch on the warning track, so Cessa got some help. In one afternoon, Tanaka went from a 1.47 ERA (2.55 FIP) to a 3.22 ERA (3.10 FIP) on the season. A return to normalcy.

Two Runs Early … And That’s It
Sunday’s game started well for the Yankees. Tanaka cruised through the first three innings and the Yankees scored one run in the first and one run in the third. Judge drew a walk in the first inning and Luke Voit brought him home with a double into the right-center field gap. Mike Tauchman walked, moved to second on a wild pitch, and scored on Judge’s single in the third inning to give the Yankees a 2-0 lead. Things seemed to be going well.

Gleyber Torres followed the Judge single with a single of his own, giving the Yankees a chance to put a dent in the scoreboard in that third inning, but Voit flew out and Clint Frazier grounded out, and that was that. Following the Torres single, Carlos Rodon settled down and retired the final eleven batters he faced. Only four of the eleven managed to hit the ball out of the infield. The righty heavy lineup couldn’t muster much of anything against the lefty.

The Yankees had just two baserunners following the Torres single in the third inning. Gio Urshela drove a single to center field in the seventh inning, then was erased on Kyle Higashioka’s inning-ending double play. Judge reached on Anderson’s throwing error in the eighth, then Torres struck out to end the inning. Nineteen of the final 21 Yankees to bat made outs. Those 21 batters had a 90.2 average exit velocity. Death by soft contact.

I get that Rodon is talented (third overall pick in 2014) and has a pretty wicked slider, but he went into start with a thoroughly mediocre 4.08 ERA (4.56 FIP) in 136.2 innings since returning from shoulder surgery last year. Even with a lineup that has been decimated by injuries, this is getting pretty tedious. The healthy players on the roster are good enough to beat the Orioles and Tigers and White Sox. Instead, they are 3-6 against them at home. Gross.

(Presswire)

Leftovers
Cessa faced five batters, Tommy Kahnle faced two batters, Adam Ottavino faced five batters, Joe Harvey faced four batters, and Chad Green faced three batters. Good line for the bullpen: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 8 K. Bringing Cessa in down two runs with the bases loaded and no outs, then bringing Ottavino in down three runs to start an inning, is laugh out loud bad. Which situation demands the team’s best reliever? Well, whatever. This loss isn’t on the bullpen.

The White Sox went 5-for-7 stealings bases. One caught stealing came on a pitchout and the other came on a weird little half-slide when Yolmer Sanchez got caught in-between. At least three of the five stolen bases were uncontested. No throw because the infielder held his ground to play a potential batted ball. Somehow none of the stolen bases led to a run, but still. Can’t be giving away bases like that in a close game. First time the Yankees allowed five steals in a game since 2012.

Voit’s first inning double extended his on-base streak to 26 games, which obviously dates back to last season. That is the second longest active streak in baseball. Who knew? Voit is a distant second behind Tommy Pham’s ongoing 47-game on-base streak. Bryce Harper and J.D. Martinez are tied with the third longest streak at 17 games. Imagine Harper and Voit in the same lineup? What could’ve been.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
MLB.com has the box score and video highlights and ESPN has the updated standings. Here is our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the loss probability graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
Another off-day. The Yankees will rest Monday before opening a quick two-game home series against the Red Sox on Tuesday night. James Paxton and Chris Sale are the scheduled starters for the opener. Remember, whatever happens that series will tell you all you need to know about the rest of the year.

Filed Under: Game Stories

Game 15: Looking for the first series win at home

April 14, 2019 by Mike

(Al Bello/Getty)

The Yankees have a chance to do something today they have done only once this season: Win a series. In fact, they’ve yet to win a series at home. Granted, this is only the third home series and fifth series overall, but still. Winning only one of the first four series and dropping series to the Orioles at Tigers at home was a big letdown. Adding a home series loss to the White Sox on top of that? Yikes.

This afternoon the Yankees have their best pitcher on the mound as they go for the sweep, and, in theory, the White Sox are a good matchup for Masahiro Tanaka. They have one of the highest chase rates in the league (31.9%) and he excels at getting hitters to swing at pitches out of the zone. Tanaka still has execute, of course, but if he does, it should be a good day. Here is the new look lineup:

New York Yankees
1. 2B DJ LeMahieu
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. SS Gleyber Torres
4. 1B Luke Voit
5. DH Clint Frazier
6. CF Brett Gardner
7. 3B Gio Urshela
8. C Kyle Higashioka
9. LF Mike Tauchman

RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Chicago White Sox
1. CF Leury Garcia
2. 3B Yoan Moncada
3. DH Jose Abreu
4. 1B Yonder Alonso
5. LF Eloy Jimenez
6. SS Tim Anderson
7. C James McCann
8. RF Daniel Palka
9. 2B Yolmer Sanchez

LHP Carlos Rodon


It is warm and a bit cloudy in the Bronx this afternoon. There is some rain in the forecast later today, though it shouldn’t interrupt the game unless it goes deep into extra innings. Today’s series finale will begin at 1:05pm ET and you can watch on the YES Network locally and MLB Network nationally.

Injury Updates: Aaron Hicks (back) is with the Yankees in New York, but only temporarily. He’s in town to get his apartment situated. His rehab work is going well and he could graduate to on-field batting practice this coming week. The Yankees aren’t giving a firm timetable for his return because, well, they keep getting these things wrong … Austin Romine is available today. He got beat up a little bit Friday night and he was going to get the day game after the night game off yesterday anyway, so, with the off-day tomorrow, the Yankees are taking the opportunity to give him three straight days off to feel better.

Filed Under: Game Threads Tagged With: Aaron Hicks, Austin Romine

DJ LeMahieu’s Weird Batted Ball Profile

April 14, 2019 by Matt Imbrogno

(Sarah Stier/Getty)

With literally half the projected Opening Day lineup on the Injured List, it’s been a struggle for the Yankees to find consistent performance from their hitters. Emerging from the pack has been infielder DJ LeMahieu. Predictably, he’s shined with the glove, whether at second or third. On offense, he entered Saturday’s action hitting .439/.489/.561, good for a .448 wOBA and a 186 wRC+. He’s done it, as evidenced by the .122 ISO, with little power, though, which led me to remark the other  night that a flyball to deep center was probably the deepest ball he’s hit all year. Regardless, what he’s doing has worked, so let’s take a look.

The first thing that sticks out is the .500 (!) BABIP. Per FanGraphs, that’s second highest in baseball, behind Tim Anderson’s insane .581 (!!) BABIP to start the year. The gap between DJLM in second and Elvis Andrus in third (.475) is higher than the gap between LeMahieu and Anderson. That’s obviously not sustainable, even for a high BABIP guy like LeMahieu (career .345 BABIP). Maybe he’s just hitting the ball really hard, right? That shows up in his profile, but even that’s a bit strange. His LD% is up, but so are his FB% and IFFB%, two things that would likely kill BABIP. Let’s check out Statcast and see what we can find.

My initial hunch about LeMahieu not hitting the ball too far appears to be correct. Among players with at least 30 batted ball events, he ranks 88th out of 171 in average distance at 174 feet. His max–375′–has him in 148th place. While it’s nice to have my ideas confirmed, it doesn’t tell us a whole lot about that high BABIP. Is he stinging the ball?  It appears that he is. He’s got 21 balls hit at 95+ MPH, good for 12th in the league. His percentage of hard hit balls (95+MPH) has him even higher at 6th place: 58.3%. His 92.5 average exit velocity puts him in the top 30 of MLB (28th place) as well, though his max exit velocity of 107.2 puts him 112th. So, basically, he hits the ball very hard, very often, but just not at the upper reaches of velocity and without hitting the ball all too far. It doesn’t seem, as a high BABIP sometimes suggests (or always suggests, according to broadcasters who still can’t grasp even the most basic of advanced stats…), that LeMahieu is getting overly lucky, even with those fly ball/IFFB increases. According to Statcast, his xWOBA is .367. There’s a pretty big difference between that and his actual wOBA, but .367 is still a damn good number–especially for someone as good in the field as he is–and, to me at least, suggests he’s just squaring things up right now, not running into a bunch of seeing-eye singles or dying quails.

I was skeptical of the LeMahieu signing, but so far, I’ve been flat out wrong about it. I’m glad to be, frankly, given how badly the Yankees need their healthy players to step up. DJLM is not going to keep this up all year, of course, but it’s nice to ride this hard contact wave while it’s happening.

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: DJ LeMahieu

DotF: Thairo Estrada hits two home runs in Scranton’s win

April 13, 2019 by Mike

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (10-4 win over Buffalo)

  • 2B Thairo Estrada: 3-5, 2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI — here’s video of his first home run … this is his third career two-homer game, and I was surprised to see he had that many … he had a double off the top of the wall in his last game as well (it was originally called a homer before being overturned on replay), so he was pretty darn close to hitting three homers in two games … they are using the MLB ball in Triple-A this year, so power seems to be up all around the level … Thairo turning into the 15-20 homer guy because of the ball would be pretty fun
  • 1B Gosuke Katoh: 1-5, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 K — three homers in eight Triple-A games after five homers in 118 Double-A games last year … hooray for the MLB ball
  • RF Ryan McBroom: 2-3, 3 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 HBP
  • RHP Drew Hutchison: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 8 K, 5/3 GB/FB — 54 of 89 pitches were strikes (61%), plus he picked a runner off first base
  • LHP Rex Brothers: 1 IP, zeroes, 2/0 GB/FB — seven of nine pitches were strikes

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Down on the Farm

Yankees 4, White Sox 0: Sabathia helps snap four-game losing streak in first start of final season

April 13, 2019 by Mike

Now that is much more like it. The Yankees snapped their four-game losing streak with a 4-0 win over the White Sox on Saturday afternoon. CC Sabathia’s return restored order to the universe.

(Al Bello/Getty)

The Big Man Returns
In the first start of his final season, it took CC Sabathia two innings to match J.A. Happ’s season 1-2-3 inning total and four innings to double it. Happ as two 1-2-3 innings this year, both in his first start two weeks ago. Sabathia had four 1-2-3 innings in his five-inning start Saturday. His only baserunner allowed was a soft little Jose Rondon single to center field in the third inning. Soft as in 72.5 mph exit velocity. Sixteen up, 15 down.

Sabathia threw only 62 pitches in his five innings Saturday, exactly as many as he threw in his minor league rehab start last Sunday. Minor league rehab pitches and competitive Major League pitches are very different in terms of intensity though, and Sabathia is coming back from offseason knee and heart surgery, so of course the Yankees played it safe. Was there enough in the tank for another inning? Yeah, probably. But the Yankees and Sabathia have to think big picture here.

Had you not known any better, it would’ve been impossible to tell Sabathia was coming back from offseason surgery and what amounts to a modified Spring Training. The White Sox stacked their lineup with righties (Yonder Alonso was the only lefty) and, as usual, Sabathia busted those righties with 90-ish mph cutters on the inner half and got them to reach for changeups and breaking balls away. Here are his pitch locations against those righties:

Sabathia’s final line: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K on 62 pitches. Tyler Wade and Brett Gardner both made stellar defensive plays behind Sabathia to take away hits, so he had help, but the process and the results were strong. The White Sox didn’t square him up much and there were no indications of diminished stuff. Sabathia looked like regular ol’ Sabathia and that is the best possible outcome. Hooray CC. Welcome back, big man.

Three Runs In The Seventh
This game was scoreless into the seventh inning. Sabathia threw his five scoreless innings and long man du jour Domingo German was very good in his two scoreless innings, all while former Yankee Ivan Nova mowed the Yankees down on the other side. They had runners on first and second with one out in the first inning when Gleyber Torres had the bat taken out of his hands by home plate umpire Ted Barrett (look at this called strike three location) and Greg Bird grounded out, stranding both runners.

The Yankees finally broke through and got on the board in the seventh inning. Let’s recap that inning with an annotated play-by-play.

(1) Since his home run binge in Baltimore, Torres has gotten a little big with his swing, which I suppose isn’t too uncommon for a young player. Sometimes they get a little anxious and start trying to yank everything into the seats. In this at-bat, Gleyber took a first pitch curveball for a strike, swung through a second pitch cutter with a great big hero swing, then settled down and punched the 0-2 cutter to right field for a leadoff single. That got the rally going and it also ended Nova’s afternoon, which kinda surprised me, even at 93 pitches.

(2) Boy did Yolmer Sanchez bail out Aaron Boone. Lefty reliever Jace Fry replaced Nova and pinch-hitting the righty hitting Luke Voit for the lefty hitting Bird seemed like an obvious move. Instead, Bird stayed in, and he hit a tailor-made 4-6-3 double play ball to second base. The rally should’ve died right there. Sanchez booted the ball though — it looked like he rushed to make sure he could get the out at second — and instead of two outs and the bases empty, the Yankees had runners on first and second with no outs. A gift to take Boone off the hook.

(3) Like Torres two batters earlier, Clint Frazier took a huge hack early in the at-bat and swung through a pitch. Gleyber swung through an 0-1 cutter in the zone. Frazier swung through a first pitch slider in the dirt. And, like Torres two batters earlier, Frazier shortened up and shot a single to right field. That loaded the bases. Torres could not score from second because it looked like Sanchez had a chance to snag the line drive, so the runners held. No run, but bases loaded and no outs, and I’ll take it.

(4) Not pinch-hitting for Bird worked out well for Boone. Sanchez botched the double play ball, and it also allowed Boone to use Voit as a pinch-hitter for Mike Tauchman. Voit jumped on a first pitch fastball and muscled it through the infield and back up the middle to score the game’s first run. It was hit so slowly that I thought Bird would be able to score from second because the ball took forever to get to center fielder Adam Engel, but nope. No need to risk it and send a slow runner home with the bases loaded and no outs. Voit gave the Yankees a 1-0 lead.

(5) Kyle Higashioka did a great Gary Sanchez impression Saturday. He had a hard single (109.5 mph exit velocity) and two hard outs (103.8 mph and 100.5 mph). The 100.5 mph out was this seventh inning sacrifice fly. Leury Garcia is the White Sox’s version of Wade. He’s a natural infielder learning the outfield to increase his versatility. Garcia got turned around a bit on Higashioka’s fly ball and it looked like it may fall in, but he was able to reach up and make the catch while going back on the ball. Got the job done and brought a run home, and that’s the most important thing.

(6) A squeeze bunt! It looked to me that the bunt was Plan B. Wade did not square around on the first pitch fastball out of the zone, and he took a hack at the second pitch fastball for a swing-and-miss. It seemed like he was going to take one rip early in the count and try to ambush a fastball. When he missed that opportunity, Wade squared around and dropped down a textbook squeeze bunt, scoring the speedy Frazier from this base. The video:

That is the Yankees’ first successful squeeze bunt since this Didi Gregorius squeeze back in 2015. I’m not sure whether they’ve attempted any squeeze bunts since then — they’ve probably tried it a few times without getting it down — but they definitely have not succeeded since Sir Didi’s sneak attack against the Twins. Nifty little play to stretch the lead to 3-0. Aaron Judge socked a solo home run into the short porch in the eighth inning to give me my fix and add an insurance run. The Judge vs. Happ homer race is now tied at four apiece. Riveting stuff.

The Bullpen Comes Through
Been a rough few days for the supposed Super Bullpen. The bullpen had allowed at least three runs in each of the last three games — they hadn’t done that since September 2016 — and, aside from Adam Ottavino, no one has looked especially great in the early going. On Saturday, three relievers combined for four nearly perfect innings. The only baserunner came on a Wade throwing error that Bird really should’ve scooped at first.

German piggybacked with Sabathia and was dynamite in his two innings, striking our four and allowing just the one baserunner on the Wade error. If he weren’t needed in the rotation, I’d be interested in seeing German as a once-through-the-lineup multi-inning reliever. Zack Britton went 1-2-3 with a strikeout and two ground balls in the eighth, and now has as many swings and misses as baserunners this year (12 each). He needed a strong outing like that. Good to see.

Even with a four-run lead, Boone went to Aroldis Chapman in the ninth because, well, he hadn’t pitched in a week. Can’t go much longer without using him. Chapman struck out one in a perfect ninth and, for the first time this season, he hit 100 mph on the radar gun. The first four times, actually: 100.4, 100.1, 100.0, 100.0. Good to see. The weather’s warming up a bit and so is Chapman, apparently.

Leftovers
The Yankees had seven hits scattered throughout the lineup. No one had more than one hit, and the only starters without one were Bird, Tauchman (two at-bats before being removed for a pinch-hitter), and Wade (squeeze bunt). DJ LeMahieu drew the team’s only walk and is hitting .432/.490/.535 (183 wRC+). As of this writing he is second in baseball in AVG (Tim Anderson at .444), sixth in OBP, and 11th in hits. Pretty cool.

And finally, the Yankees threw a one-hitter! That soft Rondon single against Sabathia was Chicago’s only base hit. This is the Yankees’ first one-hitter since Luis Severino, David Robertson, and Chapman got the Rangers on September 9th, 2017. Their last one-hitter before that came in September 2014. Michael Pineda, Shawn Kelley, Rich Hill, and David Phelps teamed up to do it.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
For the box score and video highlights, go to MLB.com. For the updated standings, go to ESPN. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the win probability graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The Yankees will look to clinch their second series win of the season Sunday afternoon. Righty Masahiro Tanaka and lefty Carlos Rodon on scheduled starters. That is a 1:05pm ET game.

Filed Under: Game Stories

Game 14: CC Sabathia Returns

April 13, 2019 by Mike

(Mike Stobe/Getty)

At long last, some good injury news. CC Sabathia returns from the injured list this afternoon to begin his final season. My only real regret with the looming RAB shutdown is not covering Sabathia’s final season through to the end. He is an all-time favorite and an all-time great Yankee. I’m glad he’s back.

“Obviously what he brings to us between the lines (is important),” Aaron Boone said prior to yesterday’s loss. “But there’s no question that his presence in our room is one of the intangible things that he brings that’s really valuable.”

Sabathia will be on an undisclosed pitch count today. He threw 62 pitches in his minor league rehab start last Sunday, so I’m guessing that puts him on track for 75-80 pitches today. Hopefully that gets him through five innings. If not, well, it’ll just be par for the course for the Yankees this year. Here are today’s starting lineups:

New York Yankees
1. CF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 3B DJ LeMahieu
4. SS Gleyber Torres
5. 1B Greg Bird
6. DH Clint Frazier
7. LF Mike Tauchman
8. C Kyle Higashioka
9. 2B Tyler Wade

LHP CC Sabathia

Chicago White Sox
1. RF Leury Garcia
2. SS Tim Anderson
3. DH Jose Abreu
4. 1B Yonder Alonso
5. 3B Yoan Moncada
6. LF Eloy Jimenez
7. C Welington Castillo
8. 2B Jose Rondon
9. CF Adam Engel

RHP Ivan Nova


The rain stopped earlier this morning and it is now cloudy and sneaky warm in the Bronx. There is no more rain in the forecast even though the sky is gray. Today’s game will begin at 1:05pm ET and you can watch on the YES Network. Try to enjoy.

Injury Update: Giancarlo Stanton (biceps) said he is not 100% yet and his tee and soft toss work has not been at full capacity. He’s taking easy swings only. Stanton feels good and is progressing, but he is still early in the rehab process.

Roster Move: Stephen Tarpley was sent to Triple-A Scranton following last night’s game to clear a roster spot for Sabathia, the Yankees announced. Since Dellin Betances is not coming back anytime soon, this is Joe Harvey’s chance to carve out a role with the Yankees.

Misc. Note: Jacoby Ellsbury is apparently so far away from returning that the Yankees gave his locker to Gio Urshela. It’s a prime piece of real estate too, tucked into a corner where it’s somewhat easier to hide from reporters. The Yankees are so beat up and have so many injury call-ups right now that every locker in their gigantic clubhouse is occupied except the empty veteran privilege lockers next to Sabathia and Gardner.

Filed Under: Game Threads Tagged With: CC Sabathia, Giancarlo Stanton, Stephen Tarpley

The Yankees Need Chad Green to Step Up

April 13, 2019 by Bobby Montano

(Presswire)

The beginning of the season has been a struggle for the Yankees, who have won only 5 of their first 13 games. A large part of those struggle is that the players currently on the IL would likely win the AL Central if healthy and surrounded by replacement level players—turns out it’s tough to win games when 5 regulars, your ace starter and ace reliever are simultaneously out. The Yankee bullpen has yet to pick up the slack, with both Chad Green and Zack Britton not performing to expectations.

There is still quite a bit of noise in the data at this point in the season—seriously, it’s been only 13 games even if it feels like it’s been a lifetime—and early-season small sample size has a way of making one look like a fool by the time the weather warms up. But we can still discern trends and identify areas to watch as the season grows older, and that does have real analytic value. Regarding the Yanks bullpen, I am considerably more concerned with Green’s struggles than Britton’s over the long-run, so let’s take a look at what could be going wrong for the Yankees once-fireman.

Fastball Reliance

We’ve covered this quite a bit at RAB before, so you should all be familiar by now: Green really, really relies on his fastball. Check this out:

Since Green fully became a reliever, and a good one in that, in 2017, he has essentially used only two pitches: his four-seam fastball and his slider. The slider is more for show, as it’s not that effective. That’s why he ends up using the four-seamer more than 75% of the time. Last year it was even higher than that, peaking at 93% of the time last June. That’s because his slider isn’t all that effective. He’s hovering at about 75% fastballs so far in 2019, though it’s worth noting he’s re-added his splitter to his arsenal, which Mike covered a few weeks ago. It’s too early to worry about how effective it is—but it’s interesting that Green is trying the splitter again.

Green really needs his fastball to be effective for him to be successful, and while he was still very good last year, there are clear signs that his hitters were adjusting to his fastball. Take a look at this table, comparing his fastball in 2017 and 2018:

Those are still good numbers, sitting comfortably above-average to elite, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t red flags here, especially for a fastball only pitcher. Hitters started squaring Green up a lot more in 2018, as evidenced above and by an increased HR/9 and reduced K%. It was a lot harder for Green to blow fastballs by MLB hitters in 2018, and that has been so far again this year. That’s probably why he’s trying to fold in more splitters: by introducing that pitch, he hopes to keep hitters off balance and regain that four-seamer’s elite effectiveness.

Existing Red Flags

Relievers are notoriously fickle and unpredictable—that’s why those who are predictable usually tend to be well-paid—and one pitch guys like Green are more susceptible to quick, ugly backslides. (Remember the relievers are fungible days? That was all the rage in the analytic community a few years back.) In fact, there have already been a few existing red flags, even from Green’s dominant 2017. To the data:

Good grief, those 2019 numbers. But leaving those aside, there are interesting data points there in both 2017 and 18, when Green was extremely effective: hard hit % and exit velocity. What those graphs show is that it was really, really hard to make contact against Green but when batters did, they tended to hit the ball fairly hard. His fastball was just so overpowering that it generated a lot of swings and misses, and its spin-rate was so high that it looked even faster than it was.

As Mike has said repeatedly, though, when you only rely on a fastball at the Major League level, batters will eventually start to square you up unless you can keep them honest. That’s why Green dropped off a bit last year. This year, Green hasn’t been able to get the fastball by anyone: he is striking out only 11% of batters compared to about 35% in the last two seasons.

That means more batters are making contact, and, as we’d expect, hitting the ball hard. They’re waiting for the fastball. Hopefully, that’s just a small-sample-size, early-season noise—but as the earlier chart showed, his velocity and spin-rate are trending downward since 2017, in concert with his effectiveness. That trend has continued this year, but I didn’t include 2019 figures because it’s still way too small of a sample to really matter. With that said, however, it should be clear by now how troubling these trends are for a guy with Green’s arsenal.

A Way Forward?

All is not lost, however. Again, it’s extremely early in the year, with the Yankees playing in some cold, rainy conditions recently, including his rough appearance last night. Maybe Green’s velocity increases as the weather warms up and it gives him that extra edge again. That’s just Something To Watch for now, as is his ability to generate swings and misses at the top of the zone.

But what if the velocity doesn’t come back? In that case, it’s going to be extremely important for Green to develop a secondary pitch that is there for more than show. Even in its diminished state, his fastball is an above-average pitch. He can be a very effective reliever and a key part of the Yankee bullpen with it, but that will be considerably easier with a pitch with movement, so keep an eye on that splitter. If batters start biting, that will be a good sign for Green and the Yankees in the long-term.

The problem is that he’s never been able to develop that pitch before in his career, and his MLB success has always been buoyed by his fastball. Given the depleted state of the roster and general ineffectiveness of the bullpen so far in 2019, the Yankees had better hope that’s about to change.

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: Chad Green

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