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Mailbag: Gregorius, LeMahieu, Tulowitzki, Green, Judge, Hicks

February 8, 2019 by Mike

There are ten questions in this, the final mailbag of the 2018-19 offseason. Hooray for that. Spring Training begins next week and I can not wait. Remember to send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll get to as many as I can each week.

Sir Didi. (Ronald Martinez/Getty)

Garrett asks: Are you surprised that the Yankees haven’t worked out an extension for Didi yet? There’s no way he plays the 2019 season at his current arbitration number without an extension right? Would there be any benefit to the Yankees in doing so?

I am not surprised and for a few reasons. One, waiting to see how Didi Gregorius recovers from Tommy John surgery always made sense. The Yankees would be paying for an above-average two-way shortstop, but what if he loses some arm strength and is no longer an above-average fielder, or no longer able to play short? Two, the Yankees are over the $206M luxury tax threshold, so keeping costs down isn’t that big of a concern. They can pay Gregorius his entire $11.75M salary this year without it standing in the way of anything.

And three, free agency is in bad shape right now. Gregorius has an argument for Jean Segura money (five years and $70M), but, after missing half a season to Tommy John surgery, his market might be limited next winter. With free agency being what it is today, why rush into a contract with Gregorius? The chances of a big money bidding war are slim. It could be the Yankees and Sir Didi are far apart in contract talks, far enough that letting Gregorius go out into free agency so he feels the squeeze is the best way to get him signed to a favorable deal.

The Yankees have been stingy with extensions this century, which tells us they’re willing to pay large salaries down the road to reduce risk up front. They didn’t pay Chien-Ming Wang, he broke down, and they saved a bunch of money. Now, with free agency being what it is, the Yankees have even less of a reason to hand out extensions because those large salaries down the road might not be there, even if the player is healthy and productive. So no, at this point I’m not surprised they haven’t signed Didi yet.

Adam asks (short version): While I completely understand the point of the low risk, low cost signing of Troy Tulowitzki, I don’t understand the notion that he’s already been penciled into the starting shortstop spot while DJ LeMahieu, signed for 24M/2yrs, is expected to platoon vs. LHP. Wouldn’t it be fair to expect LeMahieu to see more playing time between the two?

Yeah, I don’t get that either. I mean, I totally get rolling the dice on Tulowitzki, but he hasn’t played in a year and a half, wasn’t good the last time he played, and he’s 34, so even if he were perfectly healthy last year, he’s at the point where you’d expect age-related decline. Teams are steering clear of free agents in their mid-30s these days, yet when a brand name like Tulowitzki becomes available for the minimum, half the league tries to sign him. Potentially getting something for nothing is a hell of a drug.

Anyway, yeah, it sure seems to me the best possible 2019 Yankees team has Gleyber Torres at short and LeMahieu at second, with Tulowitzki in a utility role. I think LeMahieu is a better player than Tulowitzki — he might be the better hitter at this point and is almost certainly the better defender — and therefore should play every day. Like I said, I get rolling the dice on Tulowitzki. It’s basically zero risk. But if we get to the end of April and he’s stinking it up, I hope the Yankees would pull the plug. They shouldn’t feel obligated to stick with him for two or three months just because he was great a few years ago and badly wants to prove he can still contribute.

Colin asks: In light of Miggy and Gleyber having both outperformed on power versus their prospect profiles, is it possible that the juiced balls have made contact tools significantly more valuable than power tools. Like if we regressed future WAR of 60 power prospects from 1990 to 2020, versus future WAR of 60 contact prospects on the same period do you think there would be a divergence in the last couple years?

The hit tool has always been more important than the power tool and yes, I think the current state of baseball makes that more true than ever. First of all, contact is harder to come by nowadays because pitchers are so damn good, making the hit tool that much more valuable. Smaller ballparks and the ostensibly juiced baseball artificially inflate power numbers, and research has shown hitters with warning track power have benefited most from the current home run environment. You don’t need to be Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton to hit the ball out of the park these days.

Two things to keep in mind. One, there are still some physical limitations. LeMahieu has an above-average hit tool, but unless he starts hitting more balls in the air, he’s not going to hit for power. Some guys just don’t have the swing to generate the loft necessary to take advantage of that extra carry. And two, the league-wide increase in power is at least partial the result of outside factors. As recently as 2014 we were all wondering where the home runs and offense went. If the ball changes again and suddenly those warning track power guys go back to being true warning track power guys, power hitters like Judge and Stanton become that much more valuable. Given the current state of baseball, the hit tool is much more valuable than the power tool. The pendulum could swing back in the other direction at any moment though.

Paxton. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

Corey asks: I know Paxton threw one last year, but curious to year y’alls take on which Yankee is most likely (or capable to do so) to throw a no hitter or perfect game this year?

Any pitcher could throw a no-hitter on any given day. You’ve got your good stuff working and your defense makes some plays? You could make history. Mike Fiers, Chris Heston, Phil Humber, and countless others are a testament to that. Among current Yankees, Luis Severino is the obvious pick to throw a no-hitter because he has the ability to dominate and overwhelm hitters. Run good Severino out there against the Orioles or Royals and something special could happen. James Paxton is similar to Severino in that regard.

CC Sabathia has close to zero chance to throw a no-hitter at this point because he allows too many balls in play and so prone to infield singles and bloops. J.A. Happ is somewhat similar. Masahiro Tanaka is definitely a dark horse no-hitter candidate. When he’s at his best, he can cut through any lineup, and Tanaka at his best equals strikeouts and lazy fly balls, and lazy fly balls are easy outs. The Yankees have not had a no-hitter since David Cone’s perfect game in 1999. My hunch is, if we see one this year, it’ll be a combined perfect game because the Yankees don’t let their starters pitch deep into games and because the bullpen is so good.

Alberto asks: As we all know, Troy is still being paid $38+MM by the Blue Jays & NYY will pay minimum MLB salary. So, what if a team wants to pay more than that? Say, “SFG” offered $2MM to play for them just to snag him from other teams or NYY could that ever happened or he has to be minimum $$ & choose team?

It wouldn’t matter. Once Tulowitzki was released, whatever his next team pays him is subtracted from what the Blue Jays owe him, which is $20M in 2019. The Yankees will pay him $555,000 this year and Toronto the remaining $19.45M. If the Giants offered him $2M, they’d pay him $2M and the Blue Jays the remaining $18M. Another team could offer him, say, $22M, which would take the Blue Jays off the hook and increase Tulowitzki’s salary, but that’ll never happen. In cases like this, salary offered is irrelevant. Tulowitzki is getting his $20M. It doesn’t matter to him how teams are divvying that up. It’s still $20M at the end of the day. When players are released, where they go next comes down to preference and/or opportunity, not money.

John asks: I was reading your thoughts a week before spring training today and was curious where Chad Green fell on the perceived velocity list. I know he was lauded in 2017 for having a fastball that played up higher than it registered. Did that fall last year? Was it ever a measured thing?

The perceived velocity gain list is a giant bell curve. There are a few elites like Adam Ottavino, guys whose fastball looks 1+ mph faster than the radar gun reading on average because they get great extension and release the ball closer to the plate. There are also a handful of laggers, guys whose fastball plays down quite a bit because they don’t get good extension. The guys at the bottom of list are junkballers like Clayton Richard and Bartolo Colon.

Then there is a giant blob in the middle, which is where you find most pitchers. They neither add nor gain much through perceived velocity. Green and every Yankee other than Ottavino resides in said blob, so they’re neither helped nor hurt by perceived velocity. Their velocity it what it is. Here’s Green the last two years:

  • 2017: +0.0 mph (95.8 mph actual vs. 95.8 mph perceived)
  • 2018: -0.2 mph (96.1 mph actual vs. 95.9 mph perceived)

No change, for all intents and purposes. Green’s fastball last year was the same as his fastball the year before in terms of velocity and spin rate. To me, the biggest reason he went from otherworldly in 2017 to merely very good in 2018 is that the book is out on him now, and teams are better prepared for all those fastballs. Green could really use a reliable second pitch. I doesn’t need to be an Ottavino slider or a David Robertson curveball. Just something a little better than what he has now to keep hitters honest.

(Presswire)

Pete asks: What do you make of Judge’s comments from yesterday about voluntarily moving to CF to accommodate Harper in RF? Is that a bit of a slight towards Hicks? Thinks Hicks cares?

Aaron Hicks won’t care because a) I imagine he feels the same way, and b) Aaron Judge didn’t actually say he’d move to center to accommodate Bryce Harper. “Anytime you can add an MVP to a team, it’s going to make them better … Wherever he wants to play, wherever he wants to play — we’ll make it work,” is what Judge said to TMZ. That’s it. A completely innocuous statement that applies to every possible free agent signing or trade addition or minor league call-up ever. Judge gave the tabloids a nice little headline for a day or so and that’s about it. Nothing more to it.

Bhavin asks: Provided Yankees are absolutely not signing Harper, do you think any of the remaining left handed bat is an option: Carlos Gonzalez, Derek Dietrich, Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison or Matt Joyce?

I think Dietrich is, pretty clearly, the best fit for the Yankees among that group of players, and the longer he sits in free agency, the more likely it is he winds up in pinstripes. They Yankees have had some interest in him in the past and he’d slot into the final bench spot nicely as a versatile (albeit not very good defensively) lefty bat with a knack for getting on base. Duda and Morrison don’t do much for me at this point as first base/DH only guys, and I feel like CarGo and Joyce would give you Dietrich level offense without the ability to play the infield. Dietrich definitely has some “OMG it’s February 8th they need to sign him he’s perfect for the bench … OMG it’s June 1st they need to release him he’s hitting .214” potential. Looking at the list of available free agents, he strikes me as the best candidate to be literally the 12th position player on a roster with 12 position players. I don’t expect much offense from the other guys in a part-time role and they’re not nearly as versatile. (The Yankees should just sign Bryce Harper and put Brett Gardner on the bench.)

Will asks: Would it be possible for the roster to expand to 26 players but for tanking (or plain cheap) teams to not use that roster spot? Obviously that would really be sticking it to the union and they would have to explain it to their fans but nothing would surprise me at this point.

Nah. It’s in the Collective Bargaining Agreement that the 25-man active big league roster has to be full and I assume the same would apply to the 26-man roster. There is a little leeway — there were a few instances last season in which the Yankees sent a player down following a game, had a 24-man roster during an off-day, then called someone up before their next game — but not much. Certainly not enough to play an entire season a man short. It seems to me the MLBPA would be on solid legal ground to file and win a grievance in that case.

Jeff asks (short version): I’d like to know if you think my theory holds water. The Yankees, by letting their veterans go in 2016 and giving increased time to their young’uns dramatically changed the nature of rebuilding — given that they were a .500-ish team at the time — and perhaps provided a new model for rebuilding that too many other teams have taken. Did this attitude exist prior to the Yankees of 2016? Did .500-ish teams ‘rebuild’ before that?

Interesting! I do think that a prominent team like the Yankees throwing in the towel on a season like they did in 2016 — they were 50-48 and 4.5 games out of a postseason spot on the day of the Aroldis Chapman trade, which kicked off their mini-fire sale — could lead to other teams doing the same. “If the Yankees are doing it, why shouldn’t we?” That kinda thing.

Looking back at the few years prior to 2016, the only instance I can find of a legitimately good team deciding to rebuild is the Braves. They went 96-66 in 2013 and averaged 92.5 wins from 2010-13, then lost the 2013 NLDS (that was this series), went 79-93 in 2014, and tore it down. Instead of trying to bounce back and get peak Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Craig Kimbrel, and Andrelton Simmons some help, Atlanta started a rebuild. Four great years, one tough year, great young core? Time to rebuild! Yuck. Now here are a few post-2016 examples:

  • Marlins: 79-82 in 2016 and 77-85 in 2017 with that outfield, then they blew it up
  • Diamondbacks: 93-69 in 2017 and 82-80 in 2018, then a rebuild begins
  • Mariners: 89-73 in 2018, then a rebuild

Teams aren’t even trying to get better. At first sign of adversity it’s “ah well, time to start over” these days. I don’t think we can solely blame the 2016 Yankees for that — I think the primary culprit are the owners who’ve concluded it’s more profitable to field a cheap bad team than an expensive good team — but they did trade away veterans while not yet completely out of the race, so they probably contributed to it to some extent. When a huge market team like the Yankees says it’s okay to take a step back and get younger, other teams will inevitably follow suit.

Filed Under: Musings

Injury Updates: Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez

February 7, 2019 by Mike

(Presswire)

Pitchers and catchers report in six days but already several Yankees are in Tampa preparing for the upcoming season. Bryan Hoch has a list. Among them is concussion-free Clint Frazer (video). “It’s been a long road. I’m just happy to be here and ready to go out there and make up for the time that I’ve lost,” he said to Mark Didtler. Here are injury updates on two prominent Yankees.

Gregorius set to begin throwing program

Sir Didi Gregorius is set to begin a throwing program this week, he told Ron Blum. Aaron Boone said the same to Coley Harvey. There is still no firm timetable for his return and Gregorius confirmed he will not return early as a DH. “I want to be back completely. I just want to make sure everything’s all right before I go out there. I haven’t even thought about hitting before everything,” he said.

Gregorius had his Tommy John surgery on October 17th and he resumed baseball activities last month. Specifically, he is taking one-handed swings and fielding grounders. The typical elbow reconstruction throwing program lasts several weeks. They start out at very short distances and gradually stretch it out. Gregorius joked he’ll be ready to return in April but that’s not happening. So far so good with his rehab though. The throwing program is a significant step.

Sanchez will be brought along slowly

Following offseason shoulder surgery, the Yankees will ease Gary Sanchez into things during exhibition play, Boone told Blum. “We may slow play him a little bit the first week of Grapefruit League games,” the skipper said. The Yankees did the same thing with Aaron Judge last year, remember. He had offseason shoulder surgery and sat out the first five Grapefruit League games. The Yankees didn’t want to push him too hard early in camp.

“I’ll be ready for Spring Training,” Sanchez said to Greg Joyce. He has started hitting in the cage, and Bryan Hoch says Gary will catch James Paxton’s bullpen session tomorrow, so it seems his recovery is going well. Sanchez had surgery on his left shoulder, so his throwing should be fine. The left shoulder is his front shoulder when hitting though, the power shoulder, and that’s not something you mess around with. Take it slow with Sanchez now because missing a few games in February and March is preferable to missing games at any point from April through September.

Filed Under: Injuries Tagged With: Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez

Prospect Profile: Joe Harvey

February 7, 2019 by Derek Albin

(Matt Bufano/Pinstriped Prospects)

Background

Harvey, 27, grew up near Philadelphia and attended Kennedy-Kenrick Catholic School in Norristown, Pennsylvania. Prior to his senior year (2010), he was named to the Rawlings/Perfect Game Pre-Season Atlantic Region High School Senior second team. It was a nice honor, but by not being named to the first team, he wasn’t a draft prospect. So, it was off to the University of Pittsburgh.

After redshirting in his freshman year, Harvey joined the Panthers’ bullpen. He was mediocre in his sophomore and junior years, but blossomed as a senior. After struggling with his control (35 walks in 60 innings), Harvey took a step forward in his senior season. Preceding his senior year, though, was a trip to the Cape Cod League, where Harvey threw six innings of one run ball. Though not enough exposure to make anyone really notice, it was a precursor for his final college season.

Everything came together for Harvey in his last year at Pitt. Rather than pitch exclusively in relief, Harvey got most of his work as a starter. In 15 games (12 starts), the righty tossed 71 innings with a 2.90 ERA. His biggest improvement was his control: he walked only 16 batters, good for a BB/9 just north of 2. This performance got him to the very back end of Baseball America’s top 500 draft prospects in 2014. The Yankees popped him in the 19th round of the 2014 draft.

Pro Career

Harvey signed for $60,000 and reported to rookie ball for a two-game tuneup before heading to Staten Island to finish his first pro season. From day one with the Yankees, Harvey was no longer a starter. His organizational debut was excellent (20.2 IP, 19 Ks, 5 BBs, 1.74 ERA). It was a solid beginning in advance of what was supposed to be his first full season in 2015. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery changed things. After a couple of months in Charleston to start 2015, his season was over.

Upon return, Harvey excelled. After a few rehab appearances in the GCL, he finished 2016 in Staten Island and recorded his highest strikeout rate (29.1%) of his young career. In 2017, he got off to a late start for reasons that are unclear (injury or extended spring training, most likely). Once back into game action, he dominated, this time with High-A Tampa. Around a short DL stint midseason, he recorded a microscopic 1.05 ERA and 29.3% strikeout rate. That winter, he was eligible for the Rule 5 Draft but the Yankees didn’t protect him. Despite the strong performance, Harvey was an afterthought at the time as a former 19th rounder with a recent Tommy John surgery, so there wasn’t much concern he’d be taken.

No team selected Harvey in the Rule 5 Draft, as expected. He started 2018 with Double-A Trenton, but was promptly bumped up to Triple-A in late April for good. The righty became a key cog in Scranton’s bullpen and completed his first full professional season without interruption. In 59.1 innings last year, Harvey pitched to a 1.67 ERA while punching out 29.1% of hitters. In the Triple-A playoffs, he held opponents scoreless in four appearances. The Yankees added Harvey to the 40-man roster just a couple of weeks after season’s end. It was a somewhat surprising addition, but it’s hard to argue against his performance.

Scouting Report

Harvey has three pitches in his arsenal, though one stands out above the rest. His mid-90s fastball has a high spin rate that the Yankees adore. His curveball is a work in progress and has been a focal point of his offseason, as he told Pinstriped Prospects:

“I’m trying to get more consistent with my off-speed pitches, very confident in my ability to get people out but if there’s one thing you need to get into the big leagues, it’s a consistent breaking ball so I’m really just trying to work on that.”

Mike also noted that Harvey throws “something resembling a changeup”.

Like so many relievers, control is not one of Harvey’s strengths. His career minor league walk rate of 10.7% won’t fly in the majors unless he’s the next Dellin Betances. The odds of him being the next Betances are slim, to say the least.

Harvey is a well built 6’2″ and 220 pounds. He has a little bit of a Tommy Kahnle look on the mound, who’s of similar stature (6’1″, 235 lbs). From a stuff perspective, he reminds me of Chad Green. That’s a lofty and certainly unfair comp, but their repertoires are quite similar. Both have high spin rates on their mid-90s heaters and have questionable breaking pitches.

2019 Outlook

Projection systems don’t think much of Harvey at this point. PECOTA pegs him for a 5.26 ERA while Steamer is a bit more optimistic at 4.60. These poor forecasts aren’t a big deal though. Barring a plethora of injuries, Harvey isn’t going to have much of a role on this year’s big league squad given the Yankees’ current bullpen. Plus, Harvey will have to compete with other 40-man relievers likely destined for Scranton, such as Stephen Tarpley and Ben Heller.

In all likelihood, Harvey will ride the Scranton shuttle back and forth a handful of times this season, rotating with the Hellers and Tarpleys of the world as needed. He should see some time during expanded rosters in September, too. Otherwise, he should be one of the RailRiders’ go-to late inning relievers.

My Take

Harvey doesn’t excite me. Despite his minor league track record, it seems like hard throwing right-handed relievers are a dime-a-dozen nowadays. If he had a wipeout slider or curve, it’d be a different story. He’s undoubtedly a nice depth arm that can be plucked from Triple-A as needed, but I would be surprised if he amounts to much more than a middle innings guy. Maybe he can ride his fastball to success in the way Green has, but that remains to be seen.

Filed Under: Prospect Profiles Tagged With: Joe Harvey

2019 Preseason Not Top 30 Yankees Prospects

February 7, 2019 by Mike

Yajure. (@ChasRiverDogs)

Due to graduations and trades, the Yankees no longer boast one of the top farm systems in baseball. They have one of the top Major League rosters instead. I’d take that over a top farm system any day of the week. The Yankees currently have a pitching heavy system with quite a few high-end teenagers who are years away from the big leagues. That equals risk. It’s a boom-or-bust system, for sure.

Although the farm system no longer offers potential impact talent close to the big leagues, the Yankees do still have a fairly deep system, so much so that several quality prospects did not make my annual Top 30 Prospects List. That’ll be posted tomorrow. First we have to get to my Not Top 30 Prospects. These are players on the outside of this year’s top 30 who could jump into next year’s top 30.

One of last year’s not top 30 prospects made this year’s top 30. Two others were among the final cuts, and another was traded away, though he wouldn’t have made the top 30 anyway. I’ve done this long enough to know two not top 30 prospects becoming top 30 prospects is a good success rate. One? Eh, close enough. I’ll try better next year. Prospect ranking is little more than informed guesswork.

Just to be clear, these are not prospects 31-35. They are simply five prospects on the outside of this year’s top 30 list who I think could make next year’s top 30 with a good statistical season and positive development in 2019. Here are this year’s five not top 30 prospects, listed alphabetically.

2B Ezequiel Duran

Date of Birth: May 22nd, 1999 (age 19)
Acquired: Signed July 2017 out of Dominican Republic ($10,000 bonus)
2018 Stats: .201/.251/.311 (48 wRC+), 4 HR, 27.7 K%, 3.8 BB% (235 PA in Rk)
Projected 2019 Level: Extended Spring Training and Short Season

The Yankees landed Duran almost by accident. He was a projected mid-six-figure bonus prospect for the 2016-17 international signing period but neglected to register with MLB, so he was unable to sign. Duran became a forgotten man, so by time he actually registered to sign, he was already 18 and teams had earmarked most of their bonus pool money for other players. The Yankees swooped in with a $10,000 bonus and here we are.

Duran made a name for himself in the Dominican Summer League in 2017 and again in minor league Spring Training last year, though he fell flat with Rookie Pulaski last summer. Pitchers took advantage of his aggressiveness at the plate and gave him fits all season. Duran’s tools are unchanged, however. He has premium bat speed and puts up big exit velocities from the right side, and he doesn’t miss pitches out over the plate. For a little guy (5-foot-11 and 185 lbs.), there is a lot of thump in Duran’s bat, even if he didn’t show it last year.

The downside here is Duran’s thick lower half and defensive tools that point to a future in a corner outfield spot rather than second base. Also, there’s little room for projection. Even at 19, Duran is close to maxed out physically, so what you see is probably what you’ll get long-term. Can Duran clean up his plate discipline? If yes, he could force his way up the ladder. If not, more seasons like 2018 are coming.

OF Anthony Garcia

Date of Birth: September 5th, 2000 (age 18)
Acquired: Signed July 2017 out of Dominican Republic ($500,000 bonus)
2018 Stats: .218/.300/.456 (48 wRC+), 10 HR, 40.6 K%, 10.6 BB% (217 PA in Rk)
Projected 2019 Level: Extended Spring Training and Short Season

Seven-figure signings like Antonio Cabello, Everson Pereira, Ronny Rojas, and Raimfer Salinas headline the Yankees’ 2017-18 international signing class. It is Garcia and several other smaller bonus prospects who could turn this into a banner haul. Garcia has drawn comparisons to Brewers-turned-Mariners outfielder Domingo Santana for his size (6-foot-5 and 204 lbs.) and power, though Garcia has a long way to go to get to where Santana is now.

Garcia led the Gulf Coast League in home runs last year and he has near 80 power on the 20-80 scouting scale from both sides of the plate, though he’s more refined as a left-handed hitter, which is good because that’s the heavy side of the platoon. That 40.6% strikeout rate stems from a tendency to swing-and-miss at pitches in the zone rather than a lack of discipline. Garcia knows a ball from a strike. He just misses those strikes too often.

In the field, Garcia runs quite well given his size and he has a good arm. Chances are he’ll slow down as he gets older and settle in as an average-ish defender. Garcia has exciting upside like Santana. The downside with Santana is that, when he isn’t hitting for power (like 2018), he’s kinda useless. Garcia is a switch-hitter and has a chance to be a better defender. Clearly though, the power is his calling card.

RHSP Yoendrys Gomez

Date of Birth: October 15th, 1999 (age 19)
Acquired: Signed July 2016 out of Venezuela ($50,000 bonus)
2018 Stats: 2.08 ERA (3.56 FIP), 25.8 K%, 11.3 BB% (47.2 IP in Rk)
Projected 2019 Level: Extended Spring Training and Short Season

When the Yankees signed Gomez he was tall and scrawny with good athleticism and a quick arm. Everything pointed to him adding velocity and firming up his stuff as matured and that is exactly what happened. Gomez, who is now listed at 6-foot-3 and 175 lbs., sits in the low-to-mid-90s with his fastball, and pairs it with a snappy upper-70s curveball that misses bats. His changeup shows promise as well.

The physical tools are good, but what really makes Gomez stand out is his creativity and craftiness. He knows how to make his fastball cut and sink, and he likes to steal strikes in hitter’s counts with a curveball in the zone. Gomez is a smart pitcher who maybe gets a little too cute at times, though that’s something he’ll grow out of in time. The biggest knock against him is his shaky command, mostly with his secondary stuff. The Yankees have a knack for digging up quality small bonus pitching prospects on the international market and Gomez is next in line.

SS Oswald Peraza

Date of Birth: June 15th, 2000 (age 18)
Acquired: Signed July 2016 out of Venezuela ($175,000 bonus)
2018 Stats: .250/.333/.321 (81 wRC+), 1 HR, 25.8 K%, 8.8 BB% (159 PA in Rk)
Projected 2019 Level: Extended Spring Training and Short Season

Peraza is a tools guy who is still working to turn those tools into baseball skills. He’s listed at 6-foot-0 and 176 lbs., and he currently does his best work in the field, where he is a no-doubt long-term shortstop. Peraza has good range, good hands, and good athleticism, and his feel for the position is very advanced. He positions himself well, makes good decisions, and has a good internal clock.

Offensively, Peraza has little power and he’s still learning to recognize spin and control the strike zone. He’s a righty hitter with good bat-to-ball skills, and he adds value on the bases through his speed and baserunning instincts. The Yankees have had some success with this profile. Guys like Abi Avelino and Thairo Estrada have similar skill sets and became MLB options (and a trade chip, in Avelino’s case). Peraza is still very young and I’m probably Not Top 30-ing him a year early, but I’ll take my chances.

RHSP Miguel Yajure

Date of Birth: May 1st, 1998 (age 20)
Acquired: Signed March 2015 out of Venezuela (bonus unknown)
2018 Stats: 3.90 ERA (3.04 FIP), 20.7 K%, 5.6 BB% (64.2 IP in A-)
Projected 2019 Level: Low-A and High-A

Yajure had a promising but short-lived stint in the Rookie Gulf Coast League in 2016. He threw 31.1 innings, then blew out his elbow and needed Tommy John surgery. Yajure returned last year with a fastball that jumped from the low-90s into the mid-90s, and when that happens, it’s usually because the Tommy John surgery rehab is more intense than anything the player did previously, not because the new ligament gave him superpowers.

A quality curveball and a quality changeup complement Yajure’s new and improved fastball, and even though pitchers tend to struggle with their control when they first return from elbow reconstruction, Yajure did not. He locates everything well, especially his secondary pitches for his age. He’s not especially big (6-foot-1 and 175 lbs.) and once the elbow gives out once, long-term durability questions will inevitably follow. Such is the life of the pitching prospect.

While Yajure’s stuff is quite good, his career strikeout rate (18.0%) and last year’s swing-and-miss rate (11.1%) do not stand out. He hasn’t missed as many bats as the raw stuff would lead you to believe. That said, he’s 20 years old and he’s thrown 64.2 innings with his new elbow ligament. Let’s see what happens when he gets further away some surgery. Yajure figures to return to Low-A Charleston for a few weeks this year before moving up to High-A Tampa.

Filed Under: Minors Tagged With: Anthony Garcia, Ezequiel Duran, Juan Then, Oswald Peraza, Yoendrys Gomez

Frustrated with the Yankees’ offseason? Just look at the competition

February 7, 2019 by Steven Tydings

Have the Yankees closed the gap with these two? (Tim Bradbury/Getty Images)

Are you tired of discussing the Yankees’ offseason?

Why did they sign DJ LeMahieu over Manny Machado? Are they really going to pass on Bryce Harper? The arguments have been exhausting, even with the clear merit to the discussion.

While the Yankees have passed on the generation talents, they’ve filled the obvious holes in their roster going into the offseason. They needed three starters, two relievers and a stopgap at shortstop. With James Paxton, Adam Ottavino, Troy Tulowitzki and the re-signings of CC Sabathia, J.A. Happ and Zach Britton, they’ve done just that. Add in LeMahieu as insurance for the entire infield, and the Yankees have addressed their immediate issues while going over the luxury tax.

Is that enough? We’re not going to know for a while. There’s plenty of injury and performance risk in their winter acquisitions and I’d be lying if I said that Harper or Machado wouldn’t alleviate much of those concerns.

When you look at the Yankees’ competitors, their offseason improves immensely. The Bombers don’t deserve a gold medal for doing the perceived minimum to upgrade its roster, but the other American League contenders certainly deserve demerits.

The Red Sox won last offseason with the signing of J.D. Martinez and that led directly to a World Series title in the fall. You can try and rest on your laurels after a season like that. The Red Sox have done just that.

Boston re-signed Nate Eovaldi and Steve Pearce and … I’m at a loss here. Maintaining a good roster is one step to an offseason, but the Red Sox have allowed their bullpen to atrophy, seeing Joe Kelly leave (less of a concern) and Craig Kimbrel sit on the market, leaving a giant question mark at the back-end of the bullpen. With a handful of low-risk relief signings (Brian Ellington, Jenrry Mejia, Dan Runzler, Colten Brewer and Zach Putnam), they’re bound to hit on someone, but that doesn’t replace the Kimbrel-sized hole in their bullpen.

With about $240 million in committed salary, Boston sits right near the third tier of the luxury tax and appears ready to forego further improvements to stay under. Unlike the 2018 Astros, which added Gerrit Cole to a World Series champion, they’ve taken a clear step sideways.

The 2019 Astros also look to have taken a step sideways. Their big offseason move was to add Michael Brantley, which was undeniably smart. He shores up left field, a revolving door for Houston at times, and gives them a lefty bat with plenty of contact at the top of their lineup. Combine that with some more health on their infield and the Astros’ offense should take a step forward.

However, they’ve also seen Charlie Morton leave while Dallas Keuchel and Marwin Gonzalez are likely following him out the door late in this offseason. Add in Lance McCullers’s Tommy John surgery and they’re experiencing significant turnover in their rotation. Wade Miley is … fine. But four of Houston’s five starters will be free agents after the season and the fifth starter has all of 27 2/3 MLB innings under his belt, including the postseason.

Houston’s young talent in the pipeline gives them a wild card for this upcoming season. Top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley should be ready for a call-up by midseason and could supplement the rotation. With a bullpen that may need a deadline upgrade, they have the MiLB players to pick that up via trade.

Beyond those two teams, it’s not like there’s a clear elite contender to rise up. The Indians have done nothing but hemorrhage talent from their roster, seeing multiple relievers, Brantley and Edwin Encarnacion leave with Carlos Santana and Jake Bauers as the only additions thus far.

The Athletics remain injury-riddled in the rotation with their bullpen losing their veteran reinforcements from the 2018 deadline. The Angels didn’t address their rotation or lineup holes in any significant way. The Twins … meh.

Tampa Bay represents the only other competitor to improve by bringing in Morton, though it remains to be seen if they can recreate the opener’s success in 2019. The Rays also boast a top-five farm system to tap into for MLB talent or trades if they compete yet again.

All of this is to say Yankees have had a strong offseason by comparison with other teams standing pat or letting holes open up. Did they bridge eight wins with the Red Sox and close the talent gap with the Astros? That’s up for interpretation, but they seem neck-and-neck at worst. Fangraphs projections have the Yankees at 96 wins, ahead of Houston and just one game behind Boston. Furthermore, Paxton has been the best outside acquisition of any AL contender and Ottavino likely sits in third behind Brantley.

No one signing would guarantee a division title or a World Series title. Still, the Yankees have spent much less than they can and there are perfect complements to the team’s core available in free agency. However, the Yankees aren’t the only team failing to jump at the opportunity and while that could change at the drop of a hat, the American League’s collective inactivity gives the Yankees a leg up in early February.

Filed Under: Other Teams Tagged With: Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros

MLB and MLBPA’s proposed rule changes and what they could mean for the Yankees

February 6, 2019 by Mike

“Whaddya mean we can only have 12 pitchers???” (Presswire)

Spring Training is a week away and that means we’re now in rule change season. Or, more accurately, rule change proposal season. Each year around this time MLB and the MLBPA propose ways to theoretically improve the game, and every so often rule changes are implemented. Last year mound visits were limited for the first time.

Over the last 24 hours or so multiple reports say MLB and the MLBPA are discussing a variety of rule changes that could take effect as soon as this season. Some are minor tweaks. Some are major alterations that would change the way teams build their rosters and use their players. Will we see any changes in 2019? Who knows. All we know is they are being discussed.

Jeff Passan, Joel Sherman, and Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) have reported on the various rule change proposals over the last day or so. Let’s go through them and see how they will impact the Yankees, if at all. Just to be clear: These are all proposed rule changes. Nothing has been made official yet. The side that made the proposal is in parenthesis.

Little-to-no impact on the Yankees

  • Universal DH (MLBPA)
  • 20-second pitch clock (MLB)
  • Draft penalties for tanking (MLBPA)
  • Two-sport players can sign Major League contracts out of the draft (MLBPA)
  • End all Spring Training games after ten innings (MLB)
  • Put a runner at second to begin extra innings in the All-Star Game (MLB)
  • More players are miked up during games (MLBPA)
  • Shorten commercial breaks by 30 seconds and add split screen ads to compensate (MLB)

Hooray for a universal DH! Pitchers are terrible hitters — they hit .115/.144/.148 (-25 wRC+) in over 5,100 (!) plate appearances in 2018 — so let’s get real hitters in there. A universal DH doesn’t do much for the Yankees though. They play ten or so interleague road games each year and at most four road games in the World Series. The union wants a universal DH this coming season but it seems likely to wait until 2020. They can’t just drop this on National League teams days before camp opens, you know?

I am pro-pitch clock and 20 seconds is a good number. Aroldis Chapman (averaged 28.4 seconds between pitches last year) and Masahiro Tanaka (26.1 seconds) are by far the worst offenders among current Yankees. They’ll have to adjust and pick up the pace a bit. Otherwise a 20-second pitch clock will require minimal adjustment for current Yankees and most pitchers around the league. Remember, there’s a pitch clock in Double-A and Triple-A, so lots of pitchers have experience with them already.

As for the draft penalties for tanking, it sounds as though the plan is to punish teams that don’t win a certain number of games. Lose this many games and your first round pick moves back a few spots. Lose that many games again the next year and the pick moves back even further, so on and so forth. The Yankees are (probably) never going to intentionally tank so this has little impact on them. If they lose enough games to get hit with the penalties, it’ll be because everything goes wrong.

The two-sport player thing might as well be called the Kyler Murray Rule. Murray, the ninth overall pick in last year’s draft, is a legitimate first round NFL prospect and he’s trying to leverage that into more money from the Athletics. Good for him. MLBPA wants better contracts for draftees but they also don’t want to lose high-end talent to other sports. The thing is players like Murray, who have a chance to go pro in two sports, are very rare, so this won’t come up often. There is some potential for abuse here though. (“Sign me or I’ll become a professional bowler!”)

End spring games after ten innings? Use the tiebreaker rule in the All-Star Game? Who cares, do it. Those games are meaningless. Miking up more players would be fun and I am pro-fun. Let’s hear some Didi Gregorius banter during games. Shortening commercial breaks is cool with me. We already have split screen advertisements during mound visits and even between pitches. Replacing 30 seconds of commercial break with 30 seconds of split screen ads is fine with me. Thirty fewer seconds between half-innings shaves at least 16 minutes off the time of game.

Some impact on the Yankees

  • Three-batter minimum for pitchers (MLB)
  • Mound visit limit reduced to four in 2019 and three in 2020 (MLB)

MLB proposed the three-batter minimum for pitchers, and while the MLBPA is reportedly open to the idea, they want it tested in the minors in 2019 before being implemented in the big leagues in 2020. The league wants it right away. The minors are for development. You don’t see many one or two-batter matchup relief appearances down there. Testing it in the minors is a way to push it off a year more than anything, which I think is necessary because teams already have 2019 roster spots earmarked for matchup relievers. Can’t drop this on clubs with this little warning.

Do you know how many pitching appearances of one or two batters the Yankees had last year? Thirty-seven, the fewest in baseball. (The Phillies led the way with 128.) In 2017 the Yankees had 52 such relief appearances, the fourth fewest in baseball. It’s been a while since the Yankees employed true matchup relievers like Clay Rapada. Those guys are already fading away. This rule change would make them extinct. (It also increases the chances of a big inning because if a reliever comes in and gives up back-to-back dingers or throws eight straight balls, etc., he has to stay in to face a third batter.)

I don’t like the three-batter minimum because I think teams should be able to use their players however they want. Both sides seem to support this though, so I guess that means it’s inevitable. The Yankees have steered clear of matchup relievers for a few years now so the rule would not drastically change the way they build their roster or the way they manage their bullpen. It will require some level of adjustment. Just not a huge one, I don’t think.

The mound visit rule worked quite well last year — I can count on one hand the number of times I saw a team run out of mound visits — and reducing the limit from six to four is probably doable. Going down to three in 2020? That seems to be pushing it. The MLBPA, for what it’s worth, reportedly countered MLB’s proposal with five mound visits in 2019 and four in 2020. They’re on board with the idea, just not at the same pace.

The Yankees were among the worst mound visit offenders prior to the rule change last year. Last season though, they left multiple mound visits on the board most nights, so they’ve already made the adjustment. Take away one or two more and it seems like they’ll be largely okay. There will definitely be times the Yankees want to conference on the mound but can’t throughout the season. By and large, a mount visit reduction wouldn’t change a whole lot.

A lot of impact on the Yankees

Less service time manipulation? Hooray! (Presswire)

Several proposed rule changes look like they will have considerable impact on the Yankees (and all teams, really), so lets go through them bit by bit.

  • Addition of a 26th roster spot (MLB)
  • 12-pitcher roster limit outside September (MLB)
  • 28-man roster limit in September (MLB)
  • 15-day minimum stay for disabled list and optional assignments (MLBPA)

There’s a lot going on here. MLB is open to adding a 26th roster spot, which means 30 more big league jobs, but they also want to limit teams to 12 pitchers on their 26-man roster? What started out as a good idea turned into a terrible idea. We’re talking five-man rotation, seven-man bullpen, five-man bench. I don’t like the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction that has become so popular. A five-man bench seems like overkill though.

Adding a 26th roster spot is great. Let’s do that. Limiting teams to 12 pitchers is the problem. It eliminates the possibility of a six-man rotation — my guess is more than a few teams would use their 26th roster spot to implement a six-man rotation — and it’s also kinda dangerous, no? You risk overworking pitchers with a 12-pitcher limit. At the very least, you’re encouraging teams to make more shuttle transactions to ensure they have fresh arms in the bullpen. A 12-man pitching staff is a step too far in an attempt to reduce pitching changes and improve pace-of-play.

If MLB adds a 26th roster spot, the Yankees would be able to use a spot sixth starter more often, which is something they like to do. Would they commit to a full-time six-man rotation? Eh, I’m not sure. Taking starts away from Luis Severino and James Paxton and giving them to Domingo German seems not great, you know? The 26th roster spot would give the Yankees (and every other team) greater flexibility. Spot starters, a revolving door for the bench and bullpen, you name it. Would be great for flexibility.

Now, if MLB were to limit teams to 12-man pitching staffs, even without the 26th roster spot, it would change quite a bit. The Yankees usually don’t let their starters pitch deep into games and that means they’d probably need two true multi-inning relievers in their seven-man bullpen. Guys who could give you two or three innings regularly, not once in a while. (Maybe that’s where German and Jonathan Loaisiga come in?) The 12-man pitching staff puts a lot of strain on the bullpen and would have a big impact on roster construction and reliever usage for the Yankees and every other team.

The 28-man September roster limit is so dumb and I’m not surprised MLB proposed it. They want fewer September call-ups because it means less money spent on players. The league minimum salary will be $2,983 per day in 2019, give or take. Limiting September rosters to 28 players means 12 40-man roster players don’t get called up. Twelve players at the league minimum times 30 days in September equals roughly $1.07M less a team is spending on payroll. That’s MLB’s goal here. Not competitive balance.

The Yankees are fairly aggressive with September call-ups. They had 36 players on their active roster by time the regular season ended last year. That’s eleven extra players. Being limited to three September call-ups means what, two pitchers and a utility guy? The Yankees wouldn’t get to use their depth — three September call-ups means two of German, Loaisiga, Clint Frazier, Stephen Tarpley, and Tyler Wade would not get called up based on the current roster — to lighten the load on their regulars late in the season. I hate this proposed rule change. September call-ups forever.

MLBPA proposed extending the minimum stint on the disabled list and optional assignments from ten days to 15 days. That doesn’t jibe well with the whole “12-pitcher limit” idea, but MLB proposed that, not the MLBPA. Anyway, the union wants teams to stop manipulating their roster and jerking players around. Adding five days to the minimum stints means teams will think twice about sending a player down or putting him on the DL. The Yankees are a fairly aggressive bullpen shuttle team and this proposed rule change would throw a wrench into the way they usually do business. It would make life a little more complicated.

  • Revenue sharing tied to team record (MLBPA)

The exact details of this proposal are unknown. The union has been pushing for anti-tanking measures and my guess is their proposal focuses on taking revenue sharing money away from tanking teams more than anything. Does that mean winning teams that into pay revenue sharing, like the Yankees, pay less or get some sort of rebate? It’s unclear. This is potentially huge for the Yankees, financially. It could also make no difference whatsoever. It could be that revenue sharing money taken away from a tanking team is redistributed to the other teams that receive revenue sharing rather than given back to the Yankees. Shrug.

  • Service time bonuses based on awards finishes (MLBPA)

Specifically, the union wants rookies who finish in the top three of the Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, or MVP voting to receive credit for a full year of service time no matter when they were called up. The same applies to winning the Reliever of the Year award, LCS MVP, World Series MVP, or leading the league in WAR. This, obviously, is an attempt to eliminate (or at least reduce) service time manipulation.

Under this proposal Gleyber Torres (third place in Rookie of the Year voting) would’ve received credit for a full year of service time last season, and thus been eligible for free agency during the 2023-24 offseason rather than the 2024-25 offseason. Gary Sanchez (Rookie of the Year runner-up) would’ve received a full year of service time rather than two months in 2016, moving his free agency up. Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto, Cody Bellinger, Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, and countless others would’ve benefited from this proposal.

Props to the union for coming up with a creative way to combat service time manipulation. Will it work? Or will teams be even more shameless about it and keep prospects in the minors for an entire extra season if they’re not ready to contend? Who knows. (Imagine the Blue Jays keeping Vlad Guerrero Jr. down until 2020. Oy vey.) The Yankees will never admit it but they manipulated Gleyber’s service time last year and Severino’s service time in 2016 (his Triple-A stint was juuust long enough to push back his free agency), so this would ding them.

  • Single trade deadline sometime before the All-Star break (MLBPA)

This is the union’s attempt to revive free agency (fix your problems now because you won’t get the chance later) and perhaps cut down on tanking because teams that are out of it won’t be able to dump players in July and August. July 31st is roughly two-thirds of the way through the season and that seems like a good time for the trade deadline to me. I feel like teams should be given the opportunity to react to injuries and make deals in late July (and August).

Anyway, the Yankees have been active at the trade deadline in recent years and I mean right at the trade deadline. Sonny Gray, Jaime Garcia, J.A. Happ, Lance Lynn, and Luke Voit all came over in the days leading up to July 31st. The big David Robertson trade with the White Sox was made in mid-July and of course Andrew McCutchen came over in late-August. The Yankees, like most teams, have concentrated their moves in mid-to-late-July.

I get what the MLBPA is going for here but I think moving the deadline up would be bad for baseball overall. It would extend the dog days of summer and give fans one less thing (trades) to talk about after the All-Star break. Are we really sure this would result in more free agent signings and early trades? Moving the trade deadline up would have a big impact on every team, especially contenders like the Yankees, who will have less time to survey the market and address weaknesses.

* * *

MLB also proposed conducting a study on lowering the mound, presumably to help cut down on strikeouts and give hitters a chance to keep up with the game’s continually increasing velocity. The league would look into it — the MLBPA would presumably look into increased injury risk on their own — and then the two sides would discuss the results and figure out what to do, if anything. There is no rule change proposal on the table right now though.

The Collective Bargaining Agreement allows commissioner Rob Manfred to unilaterally implement rule changes one year after a proposal. This year he can unilaterally implement a 20-second pitch clock, reducing mound visits from six to five, and the Spring Training/All-Star Game extra innings rules. It’s unclear whether he will actually do it at this point. The two sides are at the table discussing changes, so that’s good, and agreeing to rule changes is preferred to implementing them unilaterally.

Any rule change approval, unilateral or otherwise, will almost certainly happen before Cactus League and Grapefruit League games begin in two weeks. That way players (and teams) can use Spring Training to adjust. I think there’s a pretty good chance we’ll see a pitch clock and fewer mound visits in 2019. More substantial changes like a universal DH and roster changes (26th man, 12-pitcher limit, September call-up limit, etc.) are probably at least a year away.

Filed Under: Musings

The Yankees overpaid Brett Gardner, but he was the best fit among low-cost free agent outfielders

February 6, 2019 by Mike

(Getty)

The Yankees made their first notable move of the offseason three days after the World Series ended. They declined Brett Gardner’s $12.5M club option for 2019 and re-signed him to a one-year deal worth $7.5M. Add in the $2M buyout of the option and Gardner gets $9.5M in real dollars. His luxury tax hit is $7.5M because the buyout was taxed as part of his previous contract.

In the weeks since it has become clear Gardner made out very well relative to his peers. Nick Markakis was an All-Star last season and he had to settle for one year and $6M. Yesterday Curtis Granderson took a minor league deal with a $1.75M MLB salary. Other veteran outfielders like Adam Jones and Carlos Gonzalez remain unsigned and they’ll be lucky to get Markakis money at this point, nevermind Gardner money. It’s hard out there for a free agent in his mid-30s.

Financially, the Yankees probably want a do-over on Gardner’s contract. It seems like they could’ve re-signed him at a lower rate had they waited out the market. That said, the Yankees are already over the $206M luxury tax threshold, so saving $2M or $3M isn’t a big deal. It is real money, but the Yankees have plenty of real money, and they don’t seem to be adhering to a strict payroll mandate like last year. Are they spending as much as they could? No. Is Gardner preventing them from spending more? Nah.

Even on an overpriced contract, Gardner was the best fit for the Yankees among this offseason’s group of declining-ish veteran free agent outfielders. None of them project to be impact players in 2019 …

  • Gardner: +1.2 WAR in 407 plate appearances per Steamer
  • Jones: +1.0 WAR in 513 plate appearances
  • Gonzalez: +1.0 WAR in 410 plate appearances
  • Markakis: +0.9 WAR in 580 plate appearances
  • Granderson: +0.3 WAR in 186 plate appearances

… but Gardner is far and away the best defender of the group, which is not a small thing in Yankee Stadium’s spacious left field, and he’s also best able to play center field. Jones was arguably the worst defensive center fielder in baseball before the Orioles moved him to a corner late last year. CarGo, Granderson, and Markakis haven’t played center in years. Gardner’s defense slipped a bit last year but was still comfortably above-average (+10 DRS).

There is also some hope Gardner’s offense will rebound a bit this coming season. His exit velocity (87.3 mph) last year was his best since Statcast launched in 2015 and his hard-hit rate (32.9%) was second best. The key differences between 2018 Gardner and 2015-17 Gardner was more pop-ups (Under %) and fewer bloop and seeing-eye singles (Flare/Burner %), crushing his average on balls in play (career low by far .272 BABIP). Here’s the batted ball data:

We’ve done the “Gardner is done!” thing before. He had a 96 wRC+ in 2016, we all wondered whether this was the beginning of the end, then he responded with 21 homers and a 108 wRC+ in 2017. Gardner is older now, and he was especially bad in the second half last year, but the contact quality was still typical Gardner. Perhaps a little tweak can turn those pop-ups back into singles. No one is expecting 20+ homers again. But a .250 AVG and a .340 OBP? Doable.

The thing is, even if Gardner is now a below-average hitter, the Yankees are in position to trade offense for defense — for what it’s worth, Steamer projects Markakis (102 wRC+) as the best hitter in that veteran group and Gardner (97 wRC+) the worst, so the spread is small — and defensively, Gardner was the second best one-year contract option available behind Billy Hamilton, who can’t hit a lick. Gardner had a 90 wRC+ last year and was bad. Hamilton has a career 70 wRC+. There is a minimum acceptable standard for offense, even for No. 9 hitters, and Hamilton doesn’t meet it.

There’s also this: Gardner’s clubhouse skills and leadership have value. How much value, exactly? It’s impossible to say. But when everyone from Aaron Judge to CC Sabathia praises Gardner for being a leader and a mentor, it’s hard to ignore. Granderson and Jones have also long been lauded as great teammates and clubhouse guys. They’d also be coming into a new situation — Granderson doesn’t know this group of Yankees — whereas the Yankees know Gardner fits right in. Intangibles may not be measurable, but they do have some value to a team.

There is also something to be said for taking care of your own. The Yankees needed some sort of one-year stopgap outfielder this winter. Someone to at least back up Aaron Hicks in center. They could’ve either re-signed Gardner, who’s been an important member of the team for nearly a decade now, or saved some cash and signed some other club’s castoff who projects to give similar production. Players notice these things and appreciate it.

Had the Yankees not re-signed Gardner as quickly as they did, they would’ve instead waited out the market and … probably re-signed Gardner anyway. Likely at a lower rate, saving a few million bucks, but the roster would’ve been right where it is today. Gardner is not stopping the Yankees from signing Bryce Harper (no one actually believes this, right?) and the one-year outfield alternatives all kinda stink. Jones, Granderson, Markakis? Meh. Can’t count on them to be average on either side of the ball at this point. Gardner will at least save runs in the field.

In a perfect world the Yankees would sign Harper and bump Gardner to the bench, which is where he found himself late last year once Judge returned and Andrew McCutchen took over left field. That seems very unlikely to happen. The next best thing is a lower cost left fielder who can play center field when necessary, and not stand in Clint Frazier’s way should Frazier prove to be ready for a full-time gig. Gardner meets the criteria. Pretty much no other free agent outfielder did (or does). Add in the clubhouse skills and the fit is even more obvious.

Given the current market, there’s no doubt the Yankees paid more to retain Gardner than necessary. I couldn’t possibly care less about the Steinbrenners saving money though, especially now that the Yankees are over the luxury tax threshold. Gardner at $3M vs. Gardner at $7.5M makes no difference to me. He’s not preventing a Harper signing and the Yankees would need a Gardner type even if they sign Harper. Given their roster needs, Gardner was the best low-cost outfield fit, and overpaying a bit on a one-year contract won’t make or break the 2019 Yankees.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Brett Gardner

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