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River Ave. Blues » Other Teams

What if Manny Banuelos finally delivered and we weren’t watching?

April 10, 2019 by Steven Tydings

(Getty Images)

You can be forgiven for not watching the middle innings of Rays-White Sox on Tuesday afternoon.

I mean, it’s a Tuesday afternoon. Even if you’re an obsessed scoreboard watcher of AL East contenders such as myself, you’re more likely to focus on the Red Sox’s opener with Chris Sale on the hill. The Rays have been better, but it’s early April … and they’re playing the White Sox.

Furthermore, the game was already a blowout with Tampa Bay hitting three homers in the first three innings and knocking out Ervin Santana with seven runs in the first four frames. This, however, is all about what came next, the pitcher who came in after Santana: Manny Banuelos.

For 3 1/3 innings, Banuelos was everything we dreamed he would be. He struck out four, allowed three baserunners and held the Rays off the board, keeping the Sox in the game. Tampa couldn’t get the ball in the air outside of one pop out and Banuelos had them swinging and missing at his offspeed stuff. The southpaw was the only pitcher to retire Austin Meadows on the outfielder’s career day.

(MLB.TV)

Despite yesterday’s outing, Banuelos represents a story of promise and failure around these parts. In the next wave of prospects after the Big Three, Banuelos topped Yankees’ prospect lists at the same time as Jesus Montero, Dellin Betances and Andrew Brackman. With Betances ticketed for relief and Brackman flaming out, Banuelos was the best hope for a homegrown ace.

Banuelos was poised to fulfill that potential despite a 5-foot-11 frame. He reached Triple-A at 20 years old in 2011. He was the No. 13 prospect before the 2012 season according to MLB.com and Baseball America ranked him No. 29, his second straight year in the top 50. Mariano Rivera called him the best pitching prospect he’d ever seen, forebodingly in the same article that he discussed Brien Taylor.

As with nearly every pitcher with a mid-90s fastball, Banuelos succumbed to injuries, though they came at the worst time for the lefty. He struggled with injuries in 2012 and eventually had to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery. The left-hander was never the same in the Yankees’ system and was traded to Atlanta for relievers before the 2015 season.

He had success in Atlanta, although briefly. His best career outing was his debut in 2015, where he threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings and struck out the NL MVP, Bryce Harper, all three times he faced him.

But then bone spurs came for Banuelos and he’s bounced between both Los Angeles teams and now to Chicago, still searching for his breakthrough at age 28.

And that brings up back to Tuesday. Banuelos looked like a version of his old self, the one we all heard about but never saw in pinstripes. The mid-90s heat is gone, but he’s making do with a low-90s sinker and still has the curve, slider and changeup. Look at this slider!

(MLB.TV)

To end his outing, he gave up his only hit, a seeing-eye single to Tommy Pham, but the southpaw picked off Pham a pitch later. After getting confirmation that the Rays wouldn’t challenge, Banuelos walked off the field, stretched his glove into the air and put it down to his lips while looking skyward, seemingly thanking the heavens as his day was done and perhaps with the relief of having a clean performance.

(MLB.TV)

Already on the wrong side of 25, Banuelos’ prospect shine is long gone. The idea of him headlining a rotation just isn’t in the cards. But that’s OK. Even if Banuelos hadn’t cracked the rebuilding Chicago roster this year, he’d have ended his career a Major Leaguer. There could be even brighter days ahead, and he even gets to finally pitch at Yankee Stadium this weekend, nearly a half-decade after he was unceremoniously traded.

As for us, the Yankee faithful, Banuelos is a permanent lesson of the tantalizing pitching prospect. He wasn’t flawless, particularly his height, but he was the no-doubt pitcher of the time. We’ve had to adjust our concept of pitching prospects and you’ll see that reflected on Baseball America and the like; Most evaluators have begun shying away from populating tops of lists with pitchers. No matter how good a 20-year-old pitcher looks, they’re one injury away from missing out or plateauing.

For one day though, in front of a sparse crowd of 10,799 fans, the promise of Manny Banuelos came through again . Too late for the Yankees? Surely. But it’s fulfilling nonetheless to see the prospect dreams of the last decade live, even if it’s just a random Tuesday in April.

Filed Under: Musings, Other Teams Tagged With: Chicago White Sox, Manny Banuelos

Why Yankees-Astros hasn’t turned into a full-fledged rivalry

April 9, 2019 by Steven Tydings

Goliath and his friend, David. (Getty Images)

Two years ago, the Astros visited the Bronx for an exciting four-game, regular-season series which led to my guess that Yankees-Astros was the next great MLB rivalry (outside of Yankees-Red Sox, of course).

Since that article, the two teams have played a seven-game ALCS and two hard-fought, regular-season series going into this week. They’ve been must-watch games in the sense that any game between two of the best teams in the league are must-watch.

But has this become a rivalry in a real sense?

There are a few criteria which are hallmarks for a rivalry: Close postseason matchups, marquee players that are villainized on the other side, proximity or enough in-season matchups, sustained success for both franchises concurrently and, finally, the intangible hatred born out of nothing in particular.

The Yankees and Astros have the first criteria down pat thus far. The two teams were pitted against one another in the postseason twice, once in the winner-take-all 2015 Wild Card Game and a second time in the 2017 ALCS, both going the Astros’ way. In 2017, Games 2 and 4 were classics and Game 7 was close into the middle innings.

With a weak American League field, the chance of another New York-Houston showdown is high. Say what you want about the Mariners’ 10-2 start, but the Astros are an overwhelming favorite to win their division for at least the next two seasons. The Yankees have to contend with the Red Sox and Rays in the East, but they’re still highly likely to make the postseason, which either pits them directly against Houston or forces each team to win a series to meet in the ALCS. Not guaranteed, but easy to imagine.

Marquee players, each team has more than enough. Aaron Judge may be the face of baseball while Jose Altuve and Justin Verlander are veritable stars themselves. Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and Gerrit Cole are also top-tier talents. Giancarlo Stanton had the largest contract in baseball until a month ago while Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez are on the cusp of becoming household names.

When I wrote this the first time, I thought Dallas Keuchel could play the villain for New York. He’d dominated the Yankees time and time again, including in the Wild Card Game, and he provided a nemesis, albeit without the charisma of Pedro Martinez.

With Keuchel a free agent and unlikely to come back to Houston, there are two candidates coming to mind: Bregman and Verlander. Bregman has the confidence of a superstar and isn’t afraid to let anyone know. He hadn’t quite hit the spotlight in 2017, but he owns it now, likely surpassing Correa. When it comes to the Yankees, it’s not hard to imagine him failing to hold his tongue when saying he thinks Houston is better.

Verlander goes without saying. He was the 2017 ALCS MVP and his first taste of the postseason was helping to eliminate the Yankees in 2006. The future Hall of Famer is now locked into Houston through 2021 and though he’ll be 38 that season, he still possesses top-of-the-rotation talent. He holds a certain amount of real estate in Yankee fans’ heads.

The regular season matchups between the two clubs have been consistently close and entertaining in recent seasons. The teams, however, are limited to a maximum of seven regular-season contests, as opposed to the 19 times of a division opponent. That’s a dozen fewer times to create familiarity and contempt, to find two teams pointing fingers and throwing hands in a brawl gone viral.

As for that intangible, there was the Judge-Altuve MVP battle of 2017 that caused some consternation on each side. The photo of them, adorning this article up top, from the 2017 season is a lasting image superimposing the extremes of baseball stardom, though it hasn’t translated into a linkage of the two teams.

Still, the Yankees and Astros remain on a collision course for the next few years. Predicting beyond the next five is a pointless exercise, so you can even say for the foreseeable future. Each team knows the other stands in the way of their World Series goals, thus heightening their matchups.

Is all of that good enough for a rivalry? Right now, no, just a handful of entertaining games a season. Houston may be the Yankees’ second or third-biggest rival for a title, but fans aren’t adding curse words to the opposition’s middle names. There just hasn’t been that intangible. As a Yankee fan, you know in your bones you hate the Red Sox and can even churn up some feelings for the Orioles, Blue Jays or Rays during a period of sustained success.

But that visceral feelings don’t extend to the Astros. Not yet at least. Until the teams have created some true dislike or have played another long playoff series, they’re not rivals, just strong competitors. Yankees-Red Sox will have to do for now.

Filed Under: Other Teams, Musings Tagged With: Houston Astros, Justin Verlander

The Rest of MLB [2019 Season Preview]

March 27, 2019 by Mike

Can’t wait for the Yankees to sign some elite free agents! (Presswire)

At long last, our 2019 Season Preview series comes to an end today. The 2019 regular season begins tomorrow afternoon with Masahiro Tanaka vs. Andrew Cashner at Yankee Stadium. It will be Tanaka’s fourth Opening Day start in the last five years. Mel Stottlemyre (seven), Ron Guidry (seven), Whitey Ford (seven), CC Sabathia (six), Lefty Gomez (six), and Red Ruffing (five) are the only pitchers in franchise history with more Opening Day starts than Tanaka. Who knew?

Anyway, we previewed the other four AL East teams earlier today, so now it’s time to wrap up the 2019 Season Preview series with the rest of MLB. Some of those other 25 teams are actually trying to win this season. Crazy, I know. Let’s take a look at those other 25 teams. Come with me, won’t you?

Arizona Diamondbacks

Are they trying? Kinda. Maybe. Not really though.

One paragraph preview: The Diamondbacks traded their franchise player (Paul Goldschmidt) and lost two other core players to free agency (Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock), replaced them with no one in particular, and took a flier on a guy who is maybe trying to duck a six-figure tax bill in South Korea. Plus, good gravy their uniforms are so ugly. The D’Backs seem like a franchise doomed to have ugly uniforms forever. The uniforms are salt in the wound that is the 2001 World Series.

Atlanta Braves

Are they trying? Words say yes, actions say not really.

One paragraph preview: The Braves won 90 games and the NL East last year, they have a two-year-old taxpayer funded ballpark, and they cut payroll this year. Last year’s Opening Day payroll: $118.2M. This year’s Opening Day payroll: $110.9M. I guess that’s what happens when a franchise is as much a real estate development company as they are a baseball team. The Braves are everything that is wrong with baseball today.

Chicago Cubs

Are they trying? Not as much as they should be, but yes.

One paragraph preview: Folks are sleeping on the Cubbies. The projection systems hate them, but this is the same team that won 95 games last year even though so much went wrong. Kris Bryant played with a bad shoulder. Yu Darvish got hurt. Jon Lester was so-so. Tyler Chatwood was a disaster. The entire team completely stopped hitting in September. And still, 95 wins! The Cubs aren’t the budding dynasty everyone thought they were three years ago. They’re not a sinking ship either.

Chicago White Sox

Are they trying? Nah.

One paragraph preview: The “they’re adding Manny Machado’s pals (Jon Jay and Yonder Alonso)!” thing was my favorite dumb storyline of the offseason. The White Sox set their fans up for disappointment with the halfhearted free agent pursuits. Machado and Bryce Harper were never going to happen. Also, that Eloy Jimenez extension? Sneaky expensive. Harper made $46.9M during the same six-year chunk of his career and he won an MVP. Eloy gets $43M for those six years. Good for him. Way to negotiate an above-market extension with a player yet to make his big league debut, White Sox. The last time they played in the postseason, Nick Swisher was on their roster.

Cincinnati Reds

Are they trying? Yes!

One paragraph preview: The NL Central is brutal — there’s a decent chance the division will feature five teams with a winning record — so I’m not sure their offseason trades will be enough to get back to the postseason, but give the Reds credit. They’re trying. Not enough teams are doing that. Four straight 94+ loss seasons weren’t sitting well with ownership and they made an effort to improve. I sincerely home the Reds are rewarded for it.

Cleveland Indians

Are they trying? Not as much as they should be.

One paragraph preview: The window is about to slam shut. Despite back-to-back-to-back AL Central titles, the Indians cut their Opening Day payroll from $134.9M to $117.7M over the winter. They cut enough elsewhere (Edwin Encarnacion trade, Yonder Alonso trade) that they were able to hold on to Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer, which is so dumb. It is so dumb a contending team is in this position, or wants us to believe they’re in this position. Anyway, Francisco Lindor (calf), Jason Kipnis (calf), and Jose Ramirez (knee) are all hurt, their best outfielder is Leonys Martin, and they have no bullpen. The 2016 World Series loss will be this core’s peak.

Colorado Rockies

Are they trying? Yes. They make a lotta weird moves, but yes.

One paragraph preview: The Rockies just made the postseason in back-to-back years for the first time ever. They probably have the best starting rotation in franchise history as well. Kyle Freeland and German Marquez are studs, and I’m not anywhere close to giving up Jon Gray yet. I want to like the Rockies. I do. Then they go and do things like give Ian Desmond five years and $70M, and I just can’t buy all the way in. The Rockies always seem to make life unnecessarily difficult for themselves.

Detroit Tigers

Are they trying? lol no

One paragraph preview: There is no reason to watch the Tigers this year. I guess maybe Miguel Cabrera could go back to being an all-world hitter with good health, otherwise there’s nothing to see here. Most rebuilding teams at least have that one exciting young player to build around. The Tigers have … Jeimer Candelario? His best case is what, fifth best player on a contending team? On the bright side, they expect to start spending again in 2021 or 2022.

Houston Astros

Are they trying? Yup.

One paragraph preview: The Astros are obnoxiously good. They’ll miss Charlie Morton more than they’ll miss Dallas Keuchel, and Morton has injury issues. Wade Miley is a competent back-end starter and youngsters like Josh James and Forrest Whitley have high-end upside. The lineup is deep — Carlos Correa hit .180/.261/.256 (45 wRC+) following his midseason back injury last year and there’s just no way that’ll happen again — and they don’t strike out, and the bullpen is sneaky great. Whoever wins the 2019 American League pennant will have to go through Houston.

Kansas City Royals

Are they trying? Nope.

One paragraph preview: Five-year rebuild followed by three years of contention followed by another five-year rebuild seems not great for baseball. Is that really the best small market teams can hope for, or is that just what fans have been conditioned to believe? At least the Royals got a World Series title out of their rebuild. So many other teams are rebuilding nowadays that it’s inevitable three or four of them will completely screw it up. I’m not sure why a non-Royals fan would pay attention to the Royals this year. World Series champs to irrelevance in four years. Impressive.

Los Angeles Angels

Are they trying? Yes, bless their hearts.

One paragraph preview: Mike Trout is the greatest player I’ve ever seen. Shohei Ohtani is one of the most fun players I’ve ever seen, though Tommy John surgery means he can hit but not pitch this year. The Angels gave out a bunch of one-year contracts over the winter (Matt Harvey, Cody Allen, Justin Bour, Trevor Cahill, etc.) and it felt like sticking a band-aid on a roster aching for more substantial moves. They’ll get back to the postseason while Trout is in his prime … right?

Los Angeles Dodgers

Are they trying? They are. I mean, I think they are.

One paragraph preview: The Dodgers have won six straight NL West titles and have lost back-to-back World Series, and they actively got worse this winter. Yasmani Grandal was replaced with washed up Russell Martin. Yasiel Puig was replaced with A.J. Pollock. Matt Kemp and Alex Wood weren’t replaced at all. The Dodgers always seem to be one reliever short in the postseason and their solution was … Joe Kelly? Los Angeles has cut nearly $50M off their Opening Day payroll since 2017. I’m picking them to lose the World Series ever year until they prove me wrong.

Miami Marlins

Are they trying? hah

One paragraph preview: “(It’s) impossible to win every single game. One thing you always remember is the experience you had while you were at the park. We want it to be a positive experience,” said CEO Derek Jeter earlier this month. Imagine Jeter the ballplayer saying “it’s impossible to win every single game.” Wild. Anyway, Jeter’s comments are so perfect for baseball in 2019. The team is completely indifferent to winning, but they want you to show up to the park and give them your money anyway.

Milwaukee Brewers

Are they trying? Yes.

One paragraph preview: The Brewers won a Game 163 tiebreaker last year and finished with the National League’s best record, then they upped their Opening Day payroll nearly $30M to a franchise record $120.4M this year. That is exactly what a team in Milwaukee’s position should do. They’re good, there were opportunities to get better over the winter, and they jumped on them. They didn’t feed their fans any of that nonsense about having to lock up their core down the line or make sure they have payroll flexibility. It’s nice to know at least one MLB owner still wants to win.

Minnesota Twins

Are they trying? Yes, but they’re definitely not all the way in.

One paragraph preview: The position player core is really, really good. They have a chance to be above-average at every position except maybe catcher. The rotation and bullpen look a little short right now, and I’m surprised they haven’t made a more aggressive push for Dallas Keuchel and/or Craig Kimbrel. I mean, I’m not surprised, but you know what I mean. Joe Mauer’s $23M salary came off the books and the Twins lowered their Opening Day payroll approximately $10M over the winter. I kinda feel like all the Twins fans I saw complaining about Mauer’s contract all those years had this coming.

New York Mets

Are they trying? They are! Good for them.

One paragraph preview: I liked the Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz additions, I liked re-signing Jeurys Familia, I liked the depth moves (Jed Lowrie, Keon Broxton, J.D. Davis, etc.). Their top three starters (Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler) threw 553.2 innings with a 2.60 ERA last season, which is bonkers, and doesn’t it feel like they need that to happen again to have a shot at the postseason? The Mets are going to screw this up somehow. They just are. It’s in their DNA.

Oakland Athletics

Are they trying? In their own little Oakland A’s way, yes, they’re trying.

One paragraph preview: The A’s nearly chased down the Astros last season despite having like two and a half starting pitchers. I loved the Jurickson Profar pickup and Marco Estrada is a pop-up pitcher tailor made for whatever they’re calling the Oakland Coliseum these days. They’re going to score a lot of runs and the bullpen should be great as well. Trying to work that magic with the rotation two years in a row? Iffy, but not impossible.

Philadelphia Phillies

Are they trying? Oh hell yes.

One paragraph preview: No team improved as much as the Phillies this winter. They secured huge upgrades at catcher (J.T. Realmuto), shortstop (Jean Segura), and right field (Bryce Harper), added Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson on top of those guys, and are moving Rhys Hoskins back to his natural first base. He was at -24 DRS in left field last year. The Phillies improved offensively and defensively. I kinda wish they would’ve just said eff it and signed Keuchel and Kimbrel as well, but oh well. A big market team acting like a big market team shouldn’t be this refreshing.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Are they trying? No. If you think the Pirates are trying, your standards are too low.

One paragraph preview: Their Opening Day payroll has gone from $99.9M to $95.8M to $86.3M to $70.0M the last four years. They traded Gerrit Cole for a third starter (maybe) and a platoon third baseman who’s already lost the job, then traded three highly regarded young players for Chris Archer. They made those trades about eight months apart. Way to turn the Andrew McCutchen’s nine years in Pittsburgh into three postseason wins, guys.

St. Louis Cardinals

Are they trying? Indeed.

One paragraph preview: Paul Goldschmidt was a great pickup, even if it pushes Matt Carpenter back to third base. Andrew Miller and Jordan Hicks are a fun end-game combination. My guess is Alex Reyes replaces Dakota Hudson in the rotation before the All-Star break. Jose Martinez and Tyler O’Neill are starting caliber players stuck on the bench. They’re really good. Boring team gets boring preview.

San Diego Padres

Are they trying? Oh indeed.

One paragraph preview: Props to the Padres for swooping in to sign Manny Machado when no other team wanted him. They’re also going to carry tippy top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. on the Opening Day roster. Why? Because their best possible roster includes Tatis. That’s the way it should be. The Padres probably won’t win much this year, but their farm system is outrageously good, and so many of their top prospects (like Tatis) will arrive this summer. When you have a great young talent base like San Diego, you can make huge gains one year to the next, like the 2012-13 Pirates (79 wins to 94 wins), the 2014-15 Cubs (73 wins to 97 wins), and the 2017-18 Braves (72 wins to 90 wins).

San Francisco Giants

Are they trying? Not really.

One paragraph preview: Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Johnny Cueto, Evan Longoria, Mark Melancon, Buster Posey, and Jeff Samardzija are owed $361.7M over the next few seasons. They combined for +10.8 WAR in 2018. Yikes. The Giants plucked Farhan Zaidi from the rival Dodgers to run their new baseball operations group, so they’re getting some much needed fresh perspective in the front office. They’ll be back in contention before you know it.

Seattle Mariners

Are they trying? They won 89 games last year and decided it was time to rebuild, so no.

One paragraph preview: It takes a special kind of cheap to attach a player as valuable as Edwin Diaz to a bad contract to shed as much money as possible. Also, I like that the Mariners traded their best players for prospects whose best case scenario is the guys they gave up (James Paxton for Justus Sheffield, Jean Segura for J.P. Crawford), and those guys apparently weren’t good enough to win with, thus necessitating a rebuild. A strong contender for the most clueless franchise in the game.

Texas Rangers

Are they trying? Nope.

One paragraph preview: The Rangers have the most “this team would be good in 2013” roster in baseball. Hunter Pence! Asdrubal Cabrera! Edinson Volquez! Lance Lynn! Drew Smyly! Shelby Miller! Logan Forsythe! The Rangers acquired all those guys on purpose this offseason. I guess you could build around Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo, maybe Nomar Mazara too, but yeah. There’s not much here. An underrated mess of an organization.

Washington Nationals

Are they trying? Yup.

One paragraph preview: The Nationals went 82-80 last year they’re going to win more games this season because they were never a true talent 82-win team, and the “they’re better off without Harper!!!” hot takes will be everywhere. Preemptively, I am 100% here for Harper dingering the Nationals into oblivion the next 13 years. Washington’s due for another soul-crushing NLDS defeat, aren’t they? At least future manager Joe Girardi will inherit quite a bit of talent in 2020.

Filed Under: Other Teams Tagged With: 2019 Season Preview

The Rest of the AL East [2019 Season Preview]

March 27, 2019 by Mike

The best ballpark in the AL East. (Presswire)

The AL East has changed quite a bit the last few years. As recently as 2016, preseason projections had the five AL East teams separated by only nine games in the standings. All five teams were talented and they were all a headache to play against. It was the toughest division in baseball, rather easily.

This year FanGraphs projects the gap between the best team (Yankees!) and worst team (Orioles) in the AL East at 35 games. PECOTA has the gap at 28 games. No other division has a gap that large. The AL East should again be a two-team race this summer, maybe a three-team race if some things break right. Point is, this is no longer the toughest division in MLB. Let’s preview the other four AL East clubs.

Baltimore Orioles

Notable Additions: Richie Martin, Rio Ruiz, Dwight Smith Jr.
Notable Losses: Tim Beckham, Adam Jones

Their Story: The Orioles lost 115 games last season, the fifth most in baseball history, and they did that while having Manny Machado, Zack Britton, Jonathan Schoop, Kevin Gausman, and Brad Brach half the season and Adam Jones all season. All those guys are gone now, and the Orioles did nothing this winter other than make a pair of Rule 5 Draft picks and a few waiver claims. It was a quiet winter in Baltimore.

The biggest changes the O’s made this offseason were organizational. Manager Buck Showalter and GM Dan Duquette were let go — how could you keep them after 115 losses? — and Mike Elias was hired away from the Astros to become the new GM. He’s since overhauled the front office, upgraded the scouting departments, and brought the team’s analytics group out of the Stone Age.

The Orioles are very early in a long-term rebuild and it’ll take a while for those core organizational changes to lead to results on the field. Elias has them moving in the right direction, which is a start. This is essentially a ground up rebuild though. I’m not sure there’s a single player on the MLB roster who will be part of the next contending Orioles team. Maybe Cedric Mullins? That’s about it. It’s going to be another loss-filled season for the O’s.

Random Player Who Will Annoy The Yankees: Dwight Smith Jr. is my pick. The Orioles got him from the Blue Jays in a minor trade earlier this month and the 26-year-old socked three homers in limited Spring Training action. He’s hit everywhere he’s played (career 120 wRC+ in the minors) and the left-handed hitter poking a few homers into the short porch feels inevitable.

Boston Red Sox

Notable Additions: Colten Brewer?
Notable Losses: Joe Kelly, Craig Kimbrel

Their Story: The defending World Series champions didn’t have a good offseason or a bad offseason. They just didn’t have an offseason. They re-signed Nathan Eovaldi and Steve Pearce, and that’s it. I suppose they could still re-sign Kimbrel at some point. It seems really, really unlikely though. Like, if it were going to happen, it probably would’ve happened already. The Red Sox have the exact same roster as last year, minus Kelly and Kimbrel.

Clearly, the Red Sox are going to score a lot of runs, and their rotation is strong as well, assuming no one shows ill-effects from the deep postseason run. The outfield defense is great too. (The infield defense? Not so much.) Boston’s weakness, if they have one, is the bullpen. Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier went from their No. 3 and 4 relievers last year to their No. 1 and 2 relievers this year. Tyler Thornburg and Brandon Workman will assume high-leverage roles.

Brewer has been getting talked up as the bullpen breakout star. He’s a high spin cutter guy who spent 2017 in the Yankees’ farm system as a minor league Rule 5 Draft pick. Brewer signed with the Padres last winter, allowed ten runs in 9.2 big league innings, then went to the Red Sox as a scrap heap addition this winter. Should the defending champs, with the highest payroll in the sport, be relying on a scrap heap guy to save the bullpen? Hey, it worked with Brasier last year. Why not?

Anyway, the Red Sox are going to be very good again this season. Maybe the bullpen will be their downfall. My guess is they’ll figure it out throughout the summer. The offense is great and the rotation is very good, and if you’re hoping for a collapse, you’ll probably be disappointed. No, they won’t win 108 games again. No one does that in back-to-back years. The Red Sox are going to be really good again though. Hate to break it to you.

Random Player Who Will Annoy The Yankees: Steve Pearce isn’t random enough. I’ll go with light-hitting catcher Christian Vazquez. His short porch solo home run against Zack Britton in the fourth inning of Game Four proved to be the ALDS winning run last year. Vazquez hit .207/.257/.283 (42 wRC+) overall last year. Prepare for him to hit .360/.420/.500 against the Yankees this year.

Tampa Bay Rays

Notable Additions: Yandy Diaz, Avisail Garcia, Guillermo Heredia, Charlie Morton, Mike Zunino
Notable Losses: Jake Bauers, C.J. Cron, Sergio Romo, Mallex Smith

Their Story: After four straight losing seasons, the Rays emerged to win 90 games last season, sixth most in a league that had seven winning teams. They responded by cutting their Opening Day payroll from $76.4M last year to an MLB low $50.4M this year. Sincere attempts to land Paul Goldschmidt (trade) and Nelson Cruz (free agent) fell short, then, a few weeks ago, Buster Olney (subs. req’d) wrote this when ranking the divisions (emphasis mine):

It’s possible that this division has baseball’s two best teams in the Red Sox and Yankees, and folks with those teams view the Tampa Bay Rays warily after their nearly perfect series of transactions strengthened an already deep well of talent.

No team in baseball gets the benefit of the doubt more than the Rays. It’s incredible, really. Imagine any other team in baseball winning 90 games, cutting their payroll 35% (!), falling short on two big ticket players, and have it be called a “nearly perfect series of transactions.” May we all one day be graded on the Rays curve, where mediocrity passes for greatness, and you don’t have to actually contend to be considered a contender.

Tampa added Morton to Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow to give them three actual starting pitchers. They’ll use openers for the other two rotation spots. A full season of Tommy Pham will help the offense more than Garcia or Diaz or Zunino, and it’s about time Meadows gets a chance to play. That kid should’ve been been in the big leagues full-time two years ago. Service time manipulation is a hell of a thing.

The Rays are quite clearly the third best team in the five-team AL East. They’ll be annoying to play against, as always, but it’ll take a lot going right for them and a lot going wrong for the Yankees (and Red Sox) for them to have a realistic shot at the division title. They’ll finish about 15 games out and then move on to their next “nearly perfect series of transactions” that reduce payroll and don’t make them materially better.

Random Player Who Will Annoy The Yankees: Gotta be Avisail Garcia. His high ground ball rate (52.2%) and average-ish hard contact rate (33.3%) make him a good candidate to BABIP the Yankees to death with their sketchy infield defense. I’m ready for all the seeing-eye grounders pulled juuust out of Troy Tulowitzki’s reach.

Toronto Blue Jays

Notable Additions: Freddy Galvis, Elvis Luciano, Daniel Norris, Bud Norris, Matt Shoemaker
Notable Losses: Marco Estrada, Russell Martin

Their Story: The Blue Jays went from a nightmare to play against (or at least pitch against) to a non-factor so quickly that I hardly even noticed. They still have Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales and, uh, Kevin Pillar? That’s about it. Vlad Guerrero Jr. will be up at some point this season (I think), but he’s nursing an oblique injury right now, which gives the team an excuse to manipulate his service time means he’s a few weeks away from getting called up.

I’m not quite sure what Toronto’s plan is right now. It is clearly not “win now.” They also haven’t completely torn it down, so it’s not a full rebuild either. Maybe they’ll commit to a rebuild and trade Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, and Ken Giles at the deadline. It doesn’t seem like this team will do anything well this year. Pitch well, hit well, defend well, nothing. What’s the opposite of a triple threat?

The only thing keeping the Blue Jays from being the least interesting team in the AL East — that isn’t easy to do when you share a division with a 115-loss team! — is Luciano. Toronto plucked him from the Royals in the Rule 5 Draft. He turned 19 (!) last month and has never pitched above rookie ball, but he will be on the Opening Day roster. Luciano has a chance to become the first player to play an entire big league season (Opening Day through Game 162) as a teenager since Ken Griffey Jr.

Random Player Who Will Annoy The Yankees: Brandon Drury. Take it to the bank. There will be a game this season where Drury hits a double and a homer against J.A. Happ, and Miguel Andujar makes a goofy throwing error, and the “shoulda kept Drury!!!” takes come out of the woodwork. They say you can’t predict baseball, but folks, Drury giving the Yanks headaches this year is as predictable as it gets.

Filed Under: Other Teams Tagged With: 2019 Season Preview

Frustrated with the Yankees’ offseason? Just look at the competition

February 7, 2019 by Steven Tydings

Have the Yankees closed the gap with these two? (Tim Bradbury/Getty Images)

Are you tired of discussing the Yankees’ offseason?

Why did they sign DJ LeMahieu over Manny Machado? Are they really going to pass on Bryce Harper? The arguments have been exhausting, even with the clear merit to the discussion.

While the Yankees have passed on the generation talents, they’ve filled the obvious holes in their roster going into the offseason. They needed three starters, two relievers and a stopgap at shortstop. With James Paxton, Adam Ottavino, Troy Tulowitzki and the re-signings of CC Sabathia, J.A. Happ and Zach Britton, they’ve done just that. Add in LeMahieu as insurance for the entire infield, and the Yankees have addressed their immediate issues while going over the luxury tax.

Is that enough? We’re not going to know for a while. There’s plenty of injury and performance risk in their winter acquisitions and I’d be lying if I said that Harper or Machado wouldn’t alleviate much of those concerns.

When you look at the Yankees’ competitors, their offseason improves immensely. The Bombers don’t deserve a gold medal for doing the perceived minimum to upgrade its roster, but the other American League contenders certainly deserve demerits.

The Red Sox won last offseason with the signing of J.D. Martinez and that led directly to a World Series title in the fall. You can try and rest on your laurels after a season like that. The Red Sox have done just that.

Boston re-signed Nate Eovaldi and Steve Pearce and … I’m at a loss here. Maintaining a good roster is one step to an offseason, but the Red Sox have allowed their bullpen to atrophy, seeing Joe Kelly leave (less of a concern) and Craig Kimbrel sit on the market, leaving a giant question mark at the back-end of the bullpen. With a handful of low-risk relief signings (Brian Ellington, Jenrry Mejia, Dan Runzler, Colten Brewer and Zach Putnam), they’re bound to hit on someone, but that doesn’t replace the Kimbrel-sized hole in their bullpen.

With about $240 million in committed salary, Boston sits right near the third tier of the luxury tax and appears ready to forego further improvements to stay under. Unlike the 2018 Astros, which added Gerrit Cole to a World Series champion, they’ve taken a clear step sideways.

The 2019 Astros also look to have taken a step sideways. Their big offseason move was to add Michael Brantley, which was undeniably smart. He shores up left field, a revolving door for Houston at times, and gives them a lefty bat with plenty of contact at the top of their lineup. Combine that with some more health on their infield and the Astros’ offense should take a step forward.

However, they’ve also seen Charlie Morton leave while Dallas Keuchel and Marwin Gonzalez are likely following him out the door late in this offseason. Add in Lance McCullers’s Tommy John surgery and they’re experiencing significant turnover in their rotation. Wade Miley is … fine. But four of Houston’s five starters will be free agents after the season and the fifth starter has all of 27 2/3 MLB innings under his belt, including the postseason.

Houston’s young talent in the pipeline gives them a wild card for this upcoming season. Top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley should be ready for a call-up by midseason and could supplement the rotation. With a bullpen that may need a deadline upgrade, they have the MiLB players to pick that up via trade.

Beyond those two teams, it’s not like there’s a clear elite contender to rise up. The Indians have done nothing but hemorrhage talent from their roster, seeing multiple relievers, Brantley and Edwin Encarnacion leave with Carlos Santana and Jake Bauers as the only additions thus far.

The Athletics remain injury-riddled in the rotation with their bullpen losing their veteran reinforcements from the 2018 deadline. The Angels didn’t address their rotation or lineup holes in any significant way. The Twins … meh.

Tampa Bay represents the only other competitor to improve by bringing in Morton, though it remains to be seen if they can recreate the opener’s success in 2019. The Rays also boast a top-five farm system to tap into for MLB talent or trades if they compete yet again.

All of this is to say Yankees have had a strong offseason by comparison with other teams standing pat or letting holes open up. Did they bridge eight wins with the Red Sox and close the talent gap with the Astros? That’s up for interpretation, but they seem neck-and-neck at worst. Fangraphs projections have the Yankees at 96 wins, ahead of Houston and just one game behind Boston. Furthermore, Paxton has been the best outside acquisition of any AL contender and Ottavino likely sits in third behind Brantley.

No one signing would guarantee a division title or a World Series title. Still, the Yankees have spent much less than they can and there are perfect complements to the team’s core available in free agency. However, the Yankees aren’t the only team failing to jump at the opportunity and while that could change at the drop of a hat, the American League’s collective inactivity gives the Yankees a leg up in early February.

Filed Under: Other Teams Tagged With: Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros

Don’tcha Know: Robinson Cano traded to the Mets

December 1, 2018 by Mike

The newest Mets. (Jason Miller/Getty)

Robinson Cano is coming back to New York. Just not with the Yankees.

According to multiple reports, the Mets and Mariners have (finally) agreed to a five-for-two trade that sends Cano and stud closer Edwin Diaz to Flushing for a combination of prospects and veteran salary offsetters. Here are the trade details:

  • Mets get: Cano, Diaz, and $20M
  • Mariners get: Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, Gerson Bautista

Give new Mets general manager — and Cano’s former agent — Brodie Van Wagenen credit. This is the most creative move the Mets have made in a long time. Given the way the money works — including Bruce and Swarzak means this trade is close to payroll neutral in 2019 and 2020 — the Mets took on salary down the line with Cano to score four years of a top notch closer.

This trade makes the Mets significant better on the infield and in the bullpen, and they gave up nothing they’ll miss off their big league roster. The question now is will the Mets continue to add? This alone isn’t enough to get them into the postseason. The Mets went 77-85 this past season but have a strong rotation and the makings of a good lineup. They still need help behind the plate and in center field, in the bullpen, and with overall depth.

As for the Mariners, this trade continues their offseason fire sale, which has already seen Mike Zunino go to the Rays and James Paxton come to the Yankees. Using a player as valuable as Diaz to shed as much of Cano’s contract as possible takes a special kind of cheap, but it is what it is. Kelenic (sixth overall pick in 2018) and Dunn (19th overall pick in 2016) are two very good prospects, so it’s not like Seattle gave Diaz away. Bautista is an MLB ready reliever too.

The trade has some indirect impact on the Yankees. They’ve been connected to both Cano and Diaz this offseason, though a trade for either never seemed all that likely to me. The Yankees and Mariners talked Cano for Jacoby Ellsbury but the money was still an obstacle. Diaz would’ve been a great pickup. It’s just hard for me to see how the Yankees win a prospect bidding war for him if guys like Kelenic and Dunn were on the table.

Also, with the Mariners going into tank mode, it means one fewer team to compete against next year should the Yankees have to settle for a wildcard spot yet again. I count six (!) rebuilding teams in the American League: Mariners, Orioles, Rangers, Royals, Tigers, and White Sox. More than one-third of the league is rebuilding. Geez. The Blue Jays and Twins aren’t looking so hot either. The AL is very top and bottom heavy right now.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League, Other Teams Tagged With: Anthony Swarzak, Edwin Diaz, Gerson Bautista, Jarred Kelenic, Jay Bruce, Justin Dunn, New York Mets, Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners

2018 Offseason is Critical for Outlook of the Yankees

October 27, 2018 by Bobby Montano

The following is the first post from our newest writer, Bob Montano. You’ll see his work every Saturday morning here at RAB. You can follow Bob on Twitter at @mr_bobloblaw.

(Rob Carr/Getty)

The Yankees face many significant questions as they prepare for what will be their most important offseason in recent memory. Not only are Bryce Harper and Manny Machado younger and more talented than any players to hit the market in recent years, but the Yankees have clear areas to improve the roster. The team will need to find solutions to new problems in the infield now that Didi Gregorius will miss considerable time and it will need to add starting pitching. But any strategy the Yankees have for the offseason is based on whether or not Hal Steinbrenner is willing to flex his financial muscles to augment one of the most talented cores in all of baseball.

Team brass has been open about their goals to get underneath the luxury tax threshold and they finally accomplished that goal in 2018 for the first time by shaving $50 million off of 2017’s payroll, bringing the payroll to a total of $192.5 million. This does more than just save the Steinbrenners money: it also resets the penalty for exceeding the threshold to the minimum 20 percent for each dollar over as opposed to the maximum 50 percent the team had been paying. In other words, should the team exceed the $207 million threshold in 2019 by $10 million, they’d pay a $2 million tax instead of $5 million. It goes without saying that these numbers are significant at the scale of MLB payrolls and it is not clear if the Yankees are willing to take the financial hit.

Hal has long said that teams do not need a $200 million payroll to win the World Series and that has technically proven to be true – but the reality is that the league has changed in recent years. Many MLB teams have been reticent to add salary, treating the luxury tax as a de facto salary cap, and many teams simply don’t appear interested in spending to win. This presents an opportunity for the Yankees that they should not squander.

Not only do the Yankees have a roster that is as well-positioned for success over the next five years as any in baseball, but they are an exceptionally wealthy franchise. If most other teams are unwilling to spend – and we’ll have to see if this offseason is a repeat of last year’s, but I don’t expect many surprises – then the Yankees simply have no excuse to waste their biggest competitive advantage.

The Red Sox are a perfect illustration of why this is the case. Boston had a frustrating 2017, with a regular season that felt underwhelming — despite the team’s success on paper — and a disappointing first-round exit at the hands of the eventual champion Houston Astros. A big reason it felt like the team was underwhelming was its offense, so the Red Sox aggressively pursued J.D. Martinez. They eventually signed him to a five-year, $110 million contract and he hit .330 with a wRC+ of 170 in 2018 alongside Boston’s formidable young core. Thanks in large part to JD’s exceptional season and Mookie Betts’ even better one, the Red Sox are poised to win the World Series after a regular season campaign netted them 108 wins. (For what it is worth, they have the league’s largest payroll by a wide margin.)

Boston was not the only team to follow this strategy to considerable success. The Milwaukee Brewers finished at 86-76 in 2017 and clearly saw an opportunity to improve, signing Lorenzo Cain to a 5 year, $80 million contract. The Brewers added $30 million in salary, and Cain hit .308 with a 124 wRC+ in 2018. Along with likely NL MVP Christian Yelich, Cain helped guide the Brewers to a 96 win season that ended in Game Seven of the NLCS. Much like the Red Sox, the Brewers aggressively added to their payroll and it paid dividends.

Mike estimates that the Yankees will have $50 million to spend after arbitration before surpassing the $206 million cap. That is a significant amount, but it will go fast – especially if the team pursues top talent like Bryce Harper, who is reportedly asking for a 10 year, $350 contract or Manny Machado, who will have similar demands. That is without the additional salary of a potential arm like Patrick Corbin or a lefty bat like Michael Brantley, let alone supporting depth pieces. It does not even consider the fact that key pieces like Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Luis Severino will get significant pay raises through arbitration over the next few years.

We’ve heard a lot about the need to cut salary in recent years, and the team has achieved that goal. Now, the Yankees are a very good team that is on the verge of being a great team — and spending on elite talent in the next few weeks might be the difference. But if they let this moment pass them by, they will have nobody to blame but themselves if they are sitting at home late in October again, watching their bitter rivals beating them at what was supposed to be their own game.

Filed Under: Front Office, Musings, Other Teams

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