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The Rest of MLB [2018 Season Preview]

March 28, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

There’s some talent in this frame (Christian Peterson/Getty Images)

We’re just one day from the end of the offseason and the long-awaited beginning to the journey for the 2018 Yankees. That means it’s time to wrap up our season preview series. Shout-out to Mike and Domenic for their great work over the last month.

So for the final post in this set, take this as a chance to shake off the otherwise myopic focus on the everyday issues for the Bombers and an opportunity to look into the wider expanse of baseball as we check out the rest of the league.

NL East

Who will win? Nationals.
Who could surprise? Phillies (Maybe Mets?).
Who will disappoint? What’s left of the Marlins.
Players to watch? Bryce Harper and Ronald Acuna Jr.

There are two givens in the National League East: The Nationals will be good and the Marlins will be awful. The Nationals go into this season on the precipice of destruction yet perhaps also glory. All of that rides on the status of Bryce Harper, whose contract is up after the season and therefore makes the Nationals’ 2018 that much more important. The team doesn’t lack reinforcements around him with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and an actual semblance of a bullpen, not to mention Adam Eaton and Anthony Rendon on offense.

On the flip side, the Marlins … ugh. If you aren’t a baseball glutton such as myself, please avoid watching this team. Sure, prospects and the Home Run Machine and a few former Yankees, but this team isn’t worth the time.

In between, the Phillies seem on the brink of opening their contention window, particularly after adding Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana this offseason. Add them to a young core of Rhys Hoskins, Scott Kingery and Aaron Nola and you really might have something if you can get past a lack of pitching depth.

The Mets have the talent to win 90+ games with their rotation mostly healthy for now, but we’ll see how long the crosstown rivals can put it together. As for the Braves, they’re waiting for their exciting crop of pitchers to reach the majors, which likely won’t be this season. In the meantime, enjoy Ronald Acuna and everything he could be (and Freddie Freeman if you haven’t forgotten about him).

NL Central

Who will win? Cubs.
Who could surprise? Brewers.
Who will disappoint? Usually the Reds.
Players to watch? Marcell Ozuna and Luis Castillo.

Count me as someone who was quite impressed by the Cubs’ offseason. They saw their main weakness in the rotation and bullpen and added Yu Darvish, Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek. You could do a lot worse. Their core from the 2016 World Series is still intact minus Arrieta, but Darvish and Jose Quintana make up for his absence.

The Cardinals and Brewers are prime wild card candidates. Each, like the Yankees, acquired a member of the Marlins’ 2017 outfield with Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich, respectively. The Cards have a rotation that can carry an average-ish offense and make up for a below-average bullpen and should be wild card favorites. I’m less sold on the Brewers with their rotation, but they should be exciting despite projections.

The Reds and Pirates remain mired at the bottom of the division. The Reds’ rotation remains a brutish hellscape, though now it has a glimmer of hope with Luis Castillo. No, not that Luis Castillo. The one who can throw 100 mph and drop some nasty offspeed stuff. Pittsburgh has plenty of issues after trading Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole and it will be tough to round back into playoff form. A lot rides on the development of Tyler Glasnow and his towering frame.

NL West

Who will win? Dodgers.
Who could surprise? Padres? This division doesn’t have too much surprise in it.
Who will disappoint? Giants. Definitely the Giants.
Players to watch? Jon Gray and Archie Bradley.

Fresh off making it to Game 7 of the World Series, the Dodgers appear ready to book another run this year before spending big after getting under the luxury tax. However, there are some red flags, namely starting Matt Kemp in left field (why!?!) and a little less pitching depth than last season. Still, Clayton Kershaw is there and Cody Bellinger could provide a thunderous encore to his rookie season.

There’s a clear middle class to this division, the two participants in the 2017 NL Wild Card Game. The Diamondbacks replaced J.D. Martinez with Steven Souza Jr. and are doubling down on a rotation that carried them to the NLDS. Archie Bradley still anchors the bullpen and Paul Goldschmidt remains wildly underrated. Colorado will have to make up for surprisingly meh offense at Coors Field with a young pitching staff. They added to their bullpen, though it will be up to Jon Gray and co. to really make this team go.

At the bottom, there’s the Giants and Padres. The Padres are on the upswing with Eric Hosmer in tow and a boatload of prospects set to debut in the next few seasons. The Giants? In a post-Madison Bumgarner injury world, it’s time to recalibrate expectations. Their offense is old and hardly world-beaters, but it’s their rotation that concerns me. Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija are hurt and they couldn’t afford that. Derek Holland is in the initial rotation for them and Ty Blach is facing Kershaw on Opening Day. Good luck with that!

The future and present of second base (Bob Levey/Getty)

AL Central

Who will win? Indians.
Who could surprise? White Sox.
Who will disappoint? Tigers, Royals.
Players to watch? Byron Buxton and Yoan Moncada.

This appears to be the weakest division in baseball, but it’s strong at the top. Don’t overlook the Indians! In our Yankees-centric bubble, the Red Sox and Astros are the most talked about competitors, yet the Indians remain formidable. That entire pitching staff is still legit and their offense is nothing to sneeze at. In that division, they should ride to 95+ wins.

The Twins shouldn’t be a surprise, but they’re a prime wild card contender. Their pitching staff got a needed boost with Lance Lynn and Addison Reed, though it’s hardly great. What’s notable is their offense, which added Logan Morrison and still has Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano.

And then there are the three rebuilding teams. The White Sox’s pitching staff is a series of question marks, prospects and has-beens, but their prospect pool is either on the cusp or in the majors. Grab the popcorn and get ready to watch Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. The Royals are a shell of their 2015 selves and would be an easy choice for last place if you couldn’t say the same thing about the Tigers, a team set for many years of rebuilding. I guess Miguel Cabrera can still hit some?

AL West

Who will win? Astros by a lot.
Who could surprise? Athletics.
Who will disappoint? Rangers.
Players to watch? Shohei Ohtani (duh) and Dee Gordon (Matt Olson too!).

The Astros are going to be so freaking good. So so good. Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Justin Verlander, George Springer. Ugh, so much talent there and that’s just the tippy top. The only thing as exciting as the Astros is the potential Shohei Ohtani in Los Angeles. I know he’s had a rough spring. Even so, watching someone venture into two-way territory is must-watch and he’s doing it on the same team as Mike Trout and Andrelton Simmons. I’m in!

The Mariners have an aging core and a team that, if fully healthy, could peak as a wild card team. But Erasmo Ramirez and David Phelps are already hurt (yes, they were/are counting on both) and Felix Hernandez has a lot of innings on his arm. I’m still down to watch Dee Gordon try centerfield and get my fix of age-35 Robinson Cano.

The Athletics have some interesting pieces, namely Matts Olson and Chapman. Olson hits the ball a mile and Chapman plays some gnarly third base and should be a Gold Glove favorite. Their rotation is weak/young, but I’m excited by the team’s offensive potential. The Rangers, on the other hand, just don’t have too much that interests me. However, I will sign up to watch all the Joey Gallo dingers and Adrian Beltre-ness the team will provide.

The Rest of the AL East [2018 Season Preview]

March 28, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

Future Yankee Manny Machado. (John Minchillo/AP)

The Yankees begin the 2018 season tomorrow, so it’s time to preview their division rivals. Here’s a look ahead at the rest of the AL East.

Baltimore Orioles

2017 Record: 75-87

Notable Additions: Andrew Cashner, Alex Cobb, Colby Rasmus, Danny Valencia

Notable Subtractions: Welington Castillo, Ryan Flaherty, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Miley, Seth Smith

The Buck Showalter Orioles had garnered a reputation as perennial overachievers over the last half-decade, finishing at or above .500 each year from 2012 through 2016, and making three playoff appearances along the way. They were a cumulative 16 games above their Pythagorean record, owing largely to their ability to roll out a strong bullpen each and every season, as well as a propensity for clutch hitting. That stretch of competence came to an end last season, though, as the Orioles finished last in the AL East for the first time since 2011.

What Went Right Last Year?

Not all that much, really. Dylan Bundy was healthy and mostly effective for a full season, Trey Mancini and Jonathan Schoop broke out, and the bullpen continued to turn anonymous journeymen into studs (see: Richard Bleier and his 1.99 ERA in 63.1 IP). That’s about it.

What Went Wrong Last Year?

The Orioles had arguably the worst rotation in all of baseball, with only one starter posting an ERA under 4.68, and only one starter averaging 6-plus IP per start – and it was the aforementioned Bundy who achieved both. They also had to deal with significant regression from Chris Davis, Manny Machado, and Mark Trumbo, which meant that they lacked the offensive oomph to bail out their shoddy starting pitching with any sort of regularity.

Oh, and Zach Britton missed two months, tore his Achilles, and is out until at least May.

A Potential Lineup

Tim Beckham, 3B
Jonathan Schoop, 2B
Manny Machado, SS
Adam Jones, CF
Chris Davis, 1B
Trey Mancini, LF
Colby Rasmus, RF
Danny Valencia, DH
Chance Sisco, C

Showalter and Co. are counting on bounce-back seasons across the board this year, as the majority of the lineup remains the same. Rasmus is the biggest offensive addition from outside of the organization, and he did quite well with the Rays last year (139 OPS+ in 129 PA). Of course, his season ended rather abruptly when he decided to walk away from the game. Valencia made the Opening Day roster, as well, and will likely DH for the time being, as Mark Trumbo is on the disabled list with a hamstring injury.

The Probable Rotation

Dylan Bundy, RHP
Alex Cobb, RHP
Andrew Cashner, RHP
Kevin Gausman, RHP
Chris Tillman, RHP

Cobb was a quality signing for the Orioles, even if they somehow managed to pay more than was expected for the 30-year-old even after the market collapsed. And Cashner, likelihood of regression aside, is an upgrade over the Wade Mileys of the world. This rotation doesn’t look much better than passable, but even that would be a massive upgrade for the team.

The Bullpen

The bullpen was a strength last year, and there’s no real reason to expect otherwise going forward. Britton is out until at least May, which isn’t great, but Brad Brach held down the fort when he was out last year, and he will be expected to do so again this year.

Ephemera

This might be the Orioles last hurrah, as Britton, Jones, and Machado are all free agents after this year.

Boston Red Sox

2017 Record: 93-69

Notable Additions: J.D. Martinez

Notable Subtractions: Fernando Abad, Doug Fister, Addison Reed, Chris Young

The Red Sox won 93 games, won the AL East, and lost in the ALDS for the second year in a row, affording them a nice bit of symmetry in Year One Post-Ortiz.

What Went Right Last Year?

Chris Sale and Drew Pomeranz were one of the best one-two punches in the game, Craig Kimbrel may’ve been the best closer in the game, and rookies Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers were as good as advertised. Their pitching staff was terrific as a whole, finishing tied for third in the majors in park-adjusted ERA.

What Went Wrong Last Year?

Dustin Pedroia and David Price got hurt again, and Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackie Bradley Jr. regressed. And their designated hitters combined to hit an almost perfectly average .244/.327/.419, which represents a staggering drop-off from what was once their greatest advantage.

A Potential Lineup

Mookie Betts, RF
Andrew Benintendi, LF
Hanley Ramirez, 1B
J.D. Martinez, DH
Rafael Devers, 3B
Xander Bogaerts, SS
Eduardo Nunez, 2B
Christian Vazquez, C
Jackie Bradley Jr., CF

Dustin Pedroia (knee) is out indefinitely, as he’s still at least a few weeks away from extended Spring Training. The lineup nevertheless looks quite strong, particularly if you buy into a few bouncebacks and continued growth from Benintendi and Devers. And Martinez really ties it all together, giving them the middle-of-the-order presence that they desperately missed last season.

The Probable Rotation

Chris Sale, LHP
David Price, LHP
Rick Porcello, RHP
Hector Velazquez, RHP
Brian Johnson, LHP

Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Steven Wright will all open the season on the disabled list, and Wright will serve a 15-game suspension for domestic violence once activated. That means that Velazquez – a 29-year-old rookie signed out of Mexico last year – and Johnson will be in the team’s rotation for at least a couple of turns. Both were solid in limited duty for the Red Sox last year, but this is serious test of the team’s depth early in the season. If the rotation is going to be a strength as many are predicting, these guys need to get healthy and stay healthy.

The Bullpen

Kimbrel is back as the team’s closer, and I’m sure the Red Sox are looking forward to a full season’s worth of Carson Smith. They acquired him from the Mariners in December of 2015 with the hopes of forming their own version of the super bullpen, but he has thrown just 9.1 IP around injuries since then. If Smith is healthy and pitches like he did in Seattle, this team will be in good shape in the late innings.

Ephemera

Alex Cora is just the eleventh Latin American manager in baseball history, and the second Puerto Rican to hold that position.

Tampa Bay Rays

2017 Record: 80-82

Notable Additions: Christian Arroyo, C.J. Cron, Carlos Gomez, Daniel Hudson, Denard Span

Notable Subtractions: Alex Cobb, Corey Dickerson, Lucas Duda, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Jake Odorizzi, Steven Souza Jr.

Last year was quietly the fourth year in a row that the Rays finished below .500, and their reputation for being one of the smartest organizations in the game has faded into the background. They’ve made some puzzling moves in the last few years (no doubt with the financial bottom line in mind), and that was taken to something of an extreme this off-season, as people questioned their returns (or lack thereof) for Corey Dickerson, Jake Odorizzi, and Steven Souza Jr. And, while the Evan Longoria deal made some sense as he deals with his decline, this team is in search of a new face.

What Went Right Last Year?

Logan Morrison broke out in a big way, combining with Dickerson and Souza to give the Rays a potent heart of the order, Alex Cobb performed quite well in his first full season post-TJS, and Jake Faria and Blake Snell looked good in their first full big league seasons. And the Rays actually bought at the trade deadline, adding Lucas Duda and others in late-July.

Morrison, Dickerson, Souza, Cobb, and Duda are now playing for other teams.

What Went Wrong Last Year?

Kevin Kiermaier suffered a fractured hip and missed about forty-percent of the season, Chris Archer continued to be frustratingly average, Brad Miller regressed heavily, Matt Duffy missed the entire season, and Longoria had the worst offensive season of his career.

A Potential Lineup

Denard Span, DH
Matt Duffy, 3B
Kevin Kiermaier, CF
Carlos Gomez, RF
Brad Miller, 2B
Wilson Ramos, C
C.J. Cron, 1B
Adeiny Hechavarria, SS
Mallex Smith, LF

The first thought that pops into my head is that this is probably a damn good defense. Unfortunately, my intent here is to talk about the offense – and there doesn’t appear to be much hitting to be had here. ZiPS only projects Miller (103) and Kiermaier (100) to finish with an average or better wRC+, and it’s difficult to come up with a good argument against that. And their best offensive prospects, Jake Bauers (1B) and Willy Adames (SS) don’t profile as middle-of-the-order types.

The Probable Rotation

Chris Archer, RHP
Blake Snell, LHP
Nate Eovaldi, RHP
Jake Faria, RHP
¯\_(?)_/¯

Injuries to top prospect Brent Honeywell and former top prospect Jose De Leon have forced the Rays to be creative with their pitching, which means they’re going with a four-man rotation. The fifth slot will still exist, but it will be a bullpen game. That’s how the playoffs shook out to some degree, so there’s some precedent, but its viability in a full season remains to be seen – especially when one of the four starters is Eovaldi, whose last regular season start was August 10, 2016. Barring some miraculous success, prospect Anthony Banda will probably be up sooner rather than later to take that fifth spot.

The Bullpen

With the exception of the addition of Daniel Hudson, this group is the same as it was last year. Alex Colome will close, Sergio Romo will set-up, and they’ll probably have a rotating cast of seventh, eight, and maybe even ninth relievers.

Ephemera

Jonny Venters had a 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP this Spring before being sent down to the Rays minor league camp. Why is this interesting? Venters hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2012, and has had, by his reckoning, three and a half Tommy John surgeries. It’s a great story.

Toronto Blue Jays

2017 Record: 76-86

Notable Additions: Tyler Clippard, Aledmys Diaz, Jaime Garcia, Curtis Granderson, Randal Grichuk, Seung-Hwan Oh, Yangervis Solarte

Notable Subtractions: Darwin Barney, Jose Bautista, Dominic Leone, Miguel Montero

The Blue Jays followed-up back-to-back trips to the ALCS with their first losing season since 2013, in a year that was all but defined by regression and injuries. They’ve quietly completed a low-key reload this off-season, though, so they may be worth keeping an eye on.

What Went Right Last Year?

Justin Smoak broke out, Josh Donaldson continued to be a superstar, Marcus Stroman pitched like an ace, and Roberto Osuna secured his place among the brightest young relievers in the game.

What Went Wrong Last Year?

Where to begin? Jose Bautista had, by far, the worst season of his career, with -1.7 bWAR; Donaldson, J.A. Happ, Russell Martin, Steve Pearce, Aaron Sanchez, and Troy Tulowitzki all missed significant time with injuries; and Marco Estrada had a 4.98 ERA.

A Potential Lineup

Curtis Granderson, LF
Devon Travis, 2B
Josh Donaldson, 3B
Justin Smoak, 1B
Russell Martin, C
Kendrys Morales, DH
Randal Grichuk, RF
Kevin Pillar, CF
Aledmys Diaz, SS

Tulowitzki is out with bone spurs in his ankle, and his return is still up in the air. The Blue Jays have solid depth at short, though, with Diaz likely to start and Solarte on the bench in a pinch. With health and a bit of luck (mostly with Smoak), this can be a potent lineup from top to bottom.

The Probable Rotation

Marcus Stroman, RHP
J.A. Happ, LHP
Marco Estrada, RHP
Aaron Sanchez, RHP
Jaime Garcia, LHP

Stroman is dealing with a nagging injury, and won’t be starting on Opening Day; he won’t hit the DL, though, and is expected to start the fourth game of the season. The rotation looks strong on-paper, and an optimist could see a great deal of potential here. Sanchez was ace-like before blisters doomed him, Estrada was really good in 2015 and 2016, and Garcia is among the best fifth starters in the game. This could be a real strength for the Blue Jays.

The Bullpen

Osuna is a terrific closer, and there is a good amount of depth behind him, too. Seung-Hwan Oh was a smart addition, and low-risk moves for veterans John Axford and old friend Tyler Clippard could help out a bit more than we suspect. I don’t know that the bullpen will be anything more than solid, but it doesn’t profile as bad.

Ephemera

This is Donaldson’s last year under contract, and he could be a difference maker in Toronto, or for some other team after the deadline if they’re stumbling.

Update: Astros, Pirates not finalizing Gerrit Cole trade

January 10, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

1:10pm ET: Jeff Passan says there is “no deal” and this is a “false rumor.” Maybe the Pirates leaked the rumor to try to get Brian Cashman to panic include Gleyber in a trade package? That’d be kinda funny.

12:09pm ET: Looks like we can cross one pitching trade target off the Yankees’ list.

According to Jon Morosi and Ken Rosenthal, the Astros and Pirates are close to a trade sending Gerrit Cole to Houston. There’s no word on the return yet, though I imagine it’ll be a package of prospects. Here is MLB.com’s top 30 Astros prospects list, if you want to skim that.

The Yankees have been connected to Cole for weeks, and at one point it seemed the two sides were inching closer to a trade. That didn’t happen, obviously. The Yankees tried to build a trade package around Clint Frazier, but the Pirates reportedly insisted on Gleyber Torres, which was a sticking point.

As I said a few weeks ago, I wasn’t super hot on Cole as a trade target. He’s obviously talented, but he’s been trending in the wrong direction the last two years, and I’ve grown tired of the “better stuff than results” profile. If the Yankees are going to trade a big prospect package, I’d prefer someone they don’t have to fix, you know?

In addition to Cole, the Yankees have also been connected to other young-ish starters like Michael Fulmer, Chris Archer, and Patrick Corbin this offseason. They even made offers for Fulmer and Archer at some point. I don’t think it was Cole or bust. They’re going to keep looking for another starter. That’s what they do.

The Yankees have five starters (Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia, Jordan Montgomery) for five rotation spots at the moment, so they’re not desperate for a starter. They figure to sit back and see if anything falls into their laps before Spring Training.

The AL East’s losses are the 2018 Yankees’ gain

December 22, 2017 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

How peculiar is it to think of Evan Longoria outside of the American League East?

The now-former Rays third baseman was a fixture at the hot corner in AL East games for the last decade, providing Tampa Bay the small glimmer of hope that maybe, just maybe, they could unseat the Yankees and Red Sox. While his reputation as a Yankees’ killer has been blown out of proportion — Dis .846 OPS vs. NYY is his worst against an AL East team — he tormented Mariano Rivera and CC Sabathia often and was the one player up until the last few years that you truly feared in a thin Rays lineup. He seems like a pleasant enough person, but watching your team pitch to him 19 games a year was anything but pleasant.

However, Longoria was on the decline and despite having an incredibly affordable deal for a former star, it made sense for Tampa Bay to move him. In the long term, the Rays will either benefit from the prospects they bring aboard and/or from the financial wiggle room losing his contract provides.

In the short term, the Longoria trade doesn’t handicap the Rays yet, but it signals a likely rebuild for Tampa Bay with more trades on the way, something that benefits the Yankees in the short term. Getting Chris Archer out of the division, particularly with his horrid numbers against Boston, is certainly in New York’s best interest.

And it’s not just the Rays. The Orioles have very little reason to go all out this season and are considering dealing Manny Machado. They’re a team with 1-2 quality starters and replacement level fillers in the rotation otherwise, not to mention their lack of a closer at the moment. Their lineup is fine but doesn’t move the needle when compared to the Yankees and Red Sox.

So before you even factor in the Giancarlo Stanton deal, the Yankees were set to improve this season simply from seeing the teams around them fall back.

Granted, perhaps the Rays and Orioles don’t consider trading their star third basemen without Stanton adding to the behemoth in the Bronx. But it stands to reason that they saw the Yankees and Sox as tough barriers to bypass in the near future regardless of the moves this offseason.

Even with the Jays and Sox looking to improve, steps back from Baltimore and Tampa could give the Yankees a boost in the regular season. They went 24-14 against the two while Boston went 20-18.

Sure, the Red Sox have more potential to benefit, but there could be enough extra wins to go around. Last year’s East was the best division in the AL, perhaps in the entire league, so the bottom teams taking a step back could lead to better records up top. Furthermore, the AL West will be slightly more crowded with the Angels’ acquisitions, though the Indians should still benefit from the decidedly bad teams that populate the Central.

A full season of Sonny? Sign me up! (Corey Perrine/Getty)

Beyond simply having two direct competitors nosedive, the Yankees are well-positioned to start well in 2018 compared to 2017, a year when they were 30-20 after two months. Already, they have a better top five in the rotation with Sonny Gray replacing Michael Pineda. Stanton will take at-bats that went to Matt Holliday while Greg Bird shouldn’t start nearly as poorly.

And the bullpen should be a better setup as well. They’ll have Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson taking innings than belonged to Tyler Clippard and Jonathan Holder. Furthermore, Chad Green can move into Adam Warren’s role while Warren takes innings that went to Bryan Mitchell, among other shuttle relievers. There will be no more Tommy Layne experiment.

Part of what held the Yankees nine games shy of their Pythagorean record was their inability to capitalize on leads and their 18-26 record in one-run games. That shouldn’t plague them as much with a better bullpen on paper and a lineup that could produce enough runs to keep the Yankees out of late-and-close situations. Things will go wrong in 2018, but the team has the infrastructure in place to avoid the mid-season pitfalls of a year ago.

The scary thing for competitors is that the offseason is far from over. The Red Sox seem poised to add J.D. Martinez, but the Yankees could still add a starter and maybe even another infielder without subtracting from their major-league roster. Still, even without another move this winter, the Yankees look better than the 91-win regular season squad from just a few months ago.

Thursday Night Open Thread

December 14, 2017 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

The 2017 Winter Meetings are now over. Officially and unofficially. And, amazingly, basically every top free agent aside from Shohei Ohtani remains unsigned. Our top 20 free agents at CBS are unsigned, not counting Ohtani. That is crazy. I don’t ever remember getting through the Winter Meetings without at least a few top free agents signing. So many relievers have signed though. Teams are loading up on bullpen help before everything else, it seems.

Anyway, here is an open thread for the evening. Broncos vs. Colts is the Thursday NFL game, every local hockey and basketball team except the Rangers is playing, and there is one (1) college hoops game on well. Talk about those games or the mostly lame Winter Meetings right here.

The Astros’ bullpen may have some depth issues heading into the ALCS

October 13, 2017 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

During the 2017 season, the Houston Astros’ bullpen developed a strong reputation.

They posted the most fWAR in the first half of the season (4.9). For the whole season, they struck out a shade under 11 batters per nine innings and boasted five relievers who threw at least 40 innings and struck out at least 10 per nine. Ken Giles bounced back to his 2014-15 form and Chris Devenski emerged along with his signature changeup.

But when you look below the surface, the bullpen isn’t nearly as intimidating as they seemed early in the year.

In the second half, the Astros produced a 4.49 bullpen ERA with an elevated home run rate and the 20th highest fWAR. Granted, they acquired Tyler Clippard in August, so that could explain some of it, but it was also about their top relievers letting them down.

Giles was just as dominant, perhaps more so, down the stretch, so he should be exempted from this conversation. But batters seemed to adjust to Devenski somewhat as his K/9 fell by more than four Ks and his walks rose. He still held batters to a .198 average (38 points higher than the first half), but his ISO against rose from .134 to .232. Yikes.

But their reliable back-end of the bullpen from 2015 is no longer quite so usable. Luke Gregerson still strikes out a batter an inning, but he allowed 13 home runs, more than all but one MLB reliever this season. Devenski gave up 11 yet threw nearly 20 more innings than Gregerson. His walk rate is nearly a career-worst and was only used in the eighth inning of blowouts during the ALDS.

Will Harris has similarly been relegated to a lesser role despite having a solid season. He still sports a K-BB rate of over 25 percent and a 2.98 ERA. Yet A.J. Hinch refused to use him in big situations against the Red Sox in the ALDS. He got the eighth inning of Game 1 with a six-run lead and couldn’t even finish the inning after giving up back-to-back singles. He could have been part of the bridge to Giles in Game 4, but Hinch eschewed Harris for Justin Verlander.

Beyond those four, the Astros used just two other relievers beyond the Brad Peacock-Lance McCullers Jr. piggyback start in Game 3 and that was Joe Musgrove and Francisco Liriano. Liriano is just a matchup lefty for them and Musgrove is mostly a long man.

Hinch will simply have to go to Harris or others in key situations against the Yankees or keep his starters in, perhaps past their breaking points. He can’t use Verlander or Keuchel in relief until a winner-take-all situation in a seven-game series. Perhaps the Astros can out-hit the Yankees to the point where there aren’t too many high leverage innings for their middle relievers. However, I’d bet that we’ll see Hinch have to go to a reliever he doesn’t quite trust with a game on the line.

And that’s before you dissect the ALDS performance of the two relievers he does trust. Devenski and Giles combined for 5 1/3 innings and allowed five runs on seven hits. They struck out five and walked none. The latter part is encouraging yet they didn’t shut the door.

Terry Francona relied upon more relievers than Hinch and he was still stretched thin at times by the Yankees’ offense. As evidenced by Todd Frazier and Brett Gardner in the ninth on Wednesday, the Bombers will take every pitch and wait out mistakes. They were able to get the Indians’ starters out after an average of 12 outs. The Astros won’t have the luxury of going to a deep bullpen for long innings and will need their rotation to go long, thus emphasizing the importance of the Yankees’ long at-bats against the starters.

A key to look for: Devenski’s reverse split. Thanks to his changeup, he holds lefties to a .110/.178/.236 line compared to righties batting .238/.314/.448 against him. If he comes in against a lefty/switch-hitter heavy part of the lineup, he’s more likely to excel. If he’s asked to face one or two of Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge and co., he could be in for trouble.

If the Yankees can’t hit Keuchel, Verlander and the other Astros starters, the potentially soft underbelly of the Houston bullpen won’t matter. But if this series goes anything like the Indians series, this series might come down to a few at-bats from relievers who haven’t seen high leverage outings recently … and for good reason.

The Yankees are playing well, but the wild card race is closer than it appears

September 5, 2017 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

Trout, Buxton and Machado (Getty Images)

For the past month, the focus for the Yankees has been on the AL East race. And rightly so, as they started July up a half game and are now just two back in the loss column. The division is still very much up for grabs.

But lost in the shuffle has been how the Bombers haven’t separated themselves rest of the pack in the AL Wild Card race. After play on Monday, the Yankees are up just three games on the Minnesota Twins, current holders of the second wild card spot. Just 1.5 games behind the Twins stand the Los Angeles Angels, four back in the loss column of the Yankees.

And despite the loss on Monday, the Baltimore Orioles are just 1.5 back of a playoff spot. The Texas Rangers are tied with them despite selling at the deadline. Further back are the Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals, both within three games of the Twins and six in the loss column of the Yankees.

By taking 3 of 4 from Boston, the Yankees kept themselves in the division race and added some much-needed distance between them and the Twinkies. Yet we’re just a few days removed from the Twins being just a game back of the Yankees and the Angels and Orioles each had impressive second halves to stay in the race.

Sure, four games up in the loss column on a playoff spot is comfortable for the time being, but there are enough teams in striking distance to cause some uneasiness.

The Twins have an easy schedule for the last four weeks of the season, playing just six games against teams above .500. Three of those are at Yankee Stadium in two weeks. They also have seven against the last-place Detroit Tigers and two with the San Diego Padres. The Twins made up ground in part from playing an easy schedule, but it’s not as if their remaining competition is about to deter them.

The O’s, meanwhile, have 12 games left against current AL playoff teams while the Angels play a bunch with the Astros, Indians, Rangers and Mariners. The Rangers have three with the Yankees and then play in the AL West of the rest of the way. Each of these teams will be tested, but they’ll also have opportunities to move up, especially if the Yankees continue to play .500 ball.

While there are clear opportunities for the teams chasing the Yankees, there’s obviously no need to panic yet. Baltimore, Minnesota and Texas can use upcoming series against the Yankees to catch up, but the Yankees can create further distance with wins. Even splitting those contests is a win with time running out.

Despite lackluster pitching staffs, the Orioles and Angels have shown the ability to win games with their bats in the last month and each has added firepower (Tim Beckham and Justin Upton, respectively) since the All-Star break. The Rangers have shown resilience even with Adrian Beltre out and Yu Darvish dealt at the deadline.

What should keep Yankees fans sane is the talent gap in the Bombers’ favor. The Yankees have the best rotation and bullpen of any remaining WC contenders and likely have the best offense, too. None of these teams have a backend that can rival David Robertson and Dellin Betances, or a top four of Severino-Gray-Tanaka-Sabathia.

The Twins’ defense is impressive, particularly with Byron Buxton in centerfield every day and they boast strong young talent with Buxton, Miguel Sano and Jose Berrios. Berrios may be the one pitcher the Yankees least want to see in the Wild Card Game if it comes to that. However, their bullpen is highly beatable, as is the backend of their rotation. They even dealt their closer to the Nationals on July 31.

The Orioles and Angels have high-end talent in their everyday lineup (read: Manny Machado and Mike Trout, among others) to get hot, but, again, their pitching holds them back. The Yankees’ Labor Day comeback against Dylan Bundy and co. was a supreme example of this. Beyond the top contenders, the Mariners have the best lineup of any remaining WC hopeful, but they’ve used 39 pitchers and counting during a season full of injuries and disappointment from their pitching staff.

Beyond simply the high-end talent, the Yankees also have the most depth, even after Aaron Hicks’ injury. It’s the same depth that can win them the division and make them a legitimate World Series contender if they make the postseason.

But they have to make the postseason first and after going 17-16 in their last 33, that’s no sure thing. So when you’re scoreboard watching over the next couple weeks, make sure to not just look at the Red Sox, but also the wild card contenders. They may be closer than they appear.