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River Ave. Blues ยป Jon Rauch

Mailbag: Vlad & Relievers

December 31, 2010 by Mike 9 Comments

No, that's not Wilton. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

Ryan asks: How different would the mid-2000’s of played out if the Yanks topped the Angels 5 year, $70 million contract for Vlad instead of signing Sheff for 3 years at $39 million after the 2003 season. Over the 3 years Sheff was in NY he produced a 10 WAR. Vlad over that 3 years, 16.6 WAR. I did enjoy Sheff but always felt that they should of went with Vlad.

You know what, I honestly don’t think things would have played out all that differently. The problems with those teams in the mid-00’s was pitching, not hitting. Plus it’s not like Sheff didn’t hit, because he absolutely did in 2004 and 2005 (.396 wOBA) before getting hurt. The Yankees almost certainly wouldn’t have traded for Bobby Abreu in 2006 with Vlad around, and you know what? They might not have been able to sign both Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon (four years, $52M each) prior to the 2006 season either. If they had signed only Matsui (since he was the incumbent), he and Vladdy would have been duking it out for DH at-bats the last few seasons. That would have been some ugly outfield defense, not to mention injury risk.

I wanted the Yankees to sign Guerrero instead of Sheffield as well, but I don’t believe the offensive and defensive upgrade he provided over Sheff would have been enough to overcome the pitching. And who knows how that contract would have impacted future free agent signings.

Tucker asks: A couple names for possible relievers: Mike MacDougal, Scot Shields, Jon Rauch, and Micah Owings.

The easy one is Shields, because he said he was likely to retire this offseason back in September. He hasn’t made an official announcement yet, but I imagine it’s coming. Even if he wanted to continue playing, he has been just a shell of his former self since injuring his knee in 2009. Over the last two years, Shields has struck out 7.2 batters per nine innings (down from 9+ at his peak) while walking 6.9 per nine, far too many. His swinging strike rate fell off a cliff as well. I’d be very, very afraid given his age (35), recent injury history, and overall career workload.

MacDougal is a walk machine, with 5.78 uIBB/9 over the last four seasons. His strikeout rate isn’t all that great either, just 6.73 K/9 during the same time. He still throws extremely hard, so that’s a plus. MacDougal has had a settle for a minor league contract in each of the last two winters, and I expect that trend to continue in this one. I’d have no trouble with giving him (or really anyone) a minor league deal to see if you can catch lightning in a bottle, but the expectations should be zero. Fun Fact: MacDougal’s real name is Robert Meiklejohn MacDougal.

He can hit! (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

People stopped complaining about the Yankees getting Ross Ohlendorf instead of Micah Owings in the Randy Johnson trade soon after they realized that Owings couldn’t pitch (5.03 FIP career) nearly as well as he could hit (.365 wOBA). He’s dealt with shoulder issues in recent seasons, and over the last two years he owns a 6.06 K/9 and a 5.06 uIBB/9. Owings is also a big time fly ball pitcher (64.1% non-ground balls in his career), so homers will be an issue as well. But again, same deal is MacDougal, minor league contract with no expectations is fine with me. I’m not guaranteeing either player anything more than a hotel room in Spring Training.

At this point, Rauch is the only real major league pitcher left in the group. His fine 2010 season was propped up by the best homerun rate of his career (0.47 HR/9), and that’s due to a) playing half his games in Target Field, and b) lucking out and not surrendering a single long ball to a right-handed batter. Over the rest of his career, he’s a one homer per nine innings guy, and I’d expect him to be at least that going forward. Rauch’s strikeout rate has hovered right around seven per nine with the exception of 2006 and 2008, when he was over eight, and his unintentional walk rate is close to two per nine in the last half-decade or so. He’s another extreme fly ball guy (66.4% non-grounders in his career), so that scares me a bit in Yankee Stadium, but Rauch is a quality big league arm that could help the Yankee bullpen. I have no idea what kind of contract he’s looking for, but I’d be skeptical of a multi-year guarantee.

Filed Under: Mailbag Tagged With: Jon Rauch, Micah Owings, Mike MacDougal, Scot Shields, Vlad Guerrero

Arms race doesn’t just mean starters for Yanks

July 23, 2009 by Joe Pawlikowski 215 Comments

When the trade deadline nears each year, there’s always a big name or two associated with the Yankees. This year is no exception, as the biggest name on the market, Roy Halladay, has been linked with the Bombers. That talk has since quieted. Toronto is asking a lot for their ace, as they should. The Yankees, already spending over $30 million on their top two pitchers this year (counting CC’s signing bonus), apparently don’t want to take on yet another hefty salary and surrender their top prospects. There’s still a chance they swoop in at the last minute, but it’s not at all likely.

This morning, Mike looked at other starting pitchers who could be on the market. With Sergio Mitre holding down the fifth spot in the rotation until further notice, the Yankees are right to keep their feelers out for any potential deals. But does it have to be for a starter? After all, they do have a perfectly good starter in the bullpen right now. They could always acquire a reliever and take the time to stretch out Hughes. What relievers could they acquire?

We’ve surely done this exercise before, but the landscape has changed in July. Some guys we’d thought were available are now not. Others who previously flew under the radar are now showing up. Here’s the most up-to-date list. I’m sure we’ll do this again next week.

Chad Qualls and Jon Rauch

At 21 games back in the NL West and 12 games back of the Wild Card, the Diamondbacks are essentially done. This puts them in the sellers’ column. The Yanks could be interested in two of their relief pitchers: Chad Qualls and Jon Rauch. Both are 30 years old, and both are posting solid seasons.

Qualls boasts a decent strikeout rate and a super-impressive walk rate (1.1 per nine). He could fit into the eighth inning role nicely. His Major League experience dates back to 2004, and he’s never posted an ERA above 3.76 in any season. He’s also kept his walk rate below 3 per nine in every season he’s pitched. The only problem is that he’s relatively cheap for a closer ($2.535 million this season), and still has one more arbitration year. The D’Backs might want to hold onto him for their 2010 campaign.

Rauch pitched horribly after the Nationals traded him to the Diamondbacks last season, and started off equally poorly this season. Since the 27th of May, though, the 6′ 11″ righty has been quite good, allowing just five runs over 22.2 innings, striking out 12 and walking five. He’s thrown strikes — 65 percent — and has kept the ball in the park, surrendering just one homer in that span. He’s another one the D’Backs might want to keep, though: he has an affordable $2.9 million club option for 2010.

Rafael Betancourt

After three and a half solid seasons at the big league level, Rafael Betancourt exploded in 2007, posting a 1.47 ERA and striking out 80 batters over 79.1 innings. More impressively, he walked just nine batters all season. After a clunker of a 2008 season, Betancourt has returned to his pre-2007 form this year. That is, a fairly capable bullpen arm. He’s striking out about a batter per inning, though his walk rate is way up (4.4 per nine). The last-place Indians could certainly deal him now rather than make a decision on his $5.4 million club option in the off-season.

Betancourt missed all of June with an injury. He’s appeared five times since returning, pitching an inning each time and allowing just two hits and one run, walking one. It’s nothing to make a trade on, but it could entice a team with a bullpen need to make a move.

John Grabow

Neal Huntington took over as Pirates GM in September 2007, and he’s absolutely cleaned house. Of the main eight starters that season, based on plate appearances, just two remain: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez. And guess what? He’s making an effort to trade them now, though both could hit free agency after the season. He does have a few pitchers left over from before his time, and just about every one of them is available in some capacity.

The Yanks already snagged Damaso Marte from Huntington, and the hope is that he can contribute in August. Even so, the Yanks could add another arm. Seemingly atop Pittsburgh’s dish-list is free agent to be John Grabow. His ERA sits pretty at 3.07, but his walk rate, almost 5 per nine, is unacceptable. Looking at his hit and walk rate combined, it would seem that he’s due for an implosion. Let that happen on another team.

Michael Wuertz

The Oakland A’s are just no good this year. When they’re not competing, you know Billy Beane is working behind the scenes to pick up some young players. One interesting name is Michael Wuertz, a 30-year-old righty who quietly pitched well in the Cubs bullpen before this season. The A’s acquired him in a minor move, and it has paid off.

Wuertz currently boasts the lowest walk rate of his career, and is combining it with excellent strikeout numbers. His slider has been deemed the toughest pitch to hit in baseball. Problem is, the A’s have his rights through the 2011 season, so he won’t come cheap. Players rarely do when Billy Beane deals them.

This list doesn’t look too promising. Most of the players are either bad or under team control for a number of years. The Yankees won’t want any of the former — they have enough mediocre bullpen arms, thank you very much — and the latter might cost a bit much. Still, if they’re going to deal for an arm, these are basically the guys on the list. What’s the preference out in Yankeeland? I’m a Rauch guy myself, and think he could come at the best value, considering his contract, age, and team.

Filed Under: Death by Bullpen Tagged With: Chad Qualls, John Grabow, Jon Rauch, Michael Wuertz, Rafael Betancourt

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