River Avenue Blues

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Girardi ranks among best bullpen managers

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Joe Girardi might seem to make some odd decisions when choosing relievers, but on the whole he’s done a fine job of managing his bullpen this year. I make this claim not based on stats, but based on what I’ve observed of the situation. Sometimes it seems he gets too cute in a LaRussa-like way, using multiple relievers to get just a few outs, but it works. Despite in April in which the bullpen had a 6.46 ERA, the Yanks pen currently sports a 3.94 ERA, fifth best in the AL. Of the things the Yanks have to worry about, the bullpen doesn’t appear to be one of them.

*If you don’t believe in advanced stats or believe that everything in baseball is self-evident, then you won’t want to continue.

Advanced stats support Girardi’s bullpen management. Jeremy Greenhouse at The Baseball Analysts looks at each team’s bullpen using a number of WPA-based figures: WPA/LI, Clutch, and pLI. The Yankees rank atop the league in Clutch from the bullpen, and up near the top in WPA/LI. In that neat Google Motion chart embedded in the article, you’ll see the Yanks dot hanging out by itself on the right. They’re easily the closest to the ideal position: top right.

Further supporting the argument is pLI, which is the Leverage Index for each player. The relievers with the highest pLI are mostly those with the highest WPA. The higher pLI means that these pitchers have the best chance of picking up WPA, since WPA fluctuates the most in high leverage situations. But because we’re seeing a high WPA, it means that for the most part the Yanks relievers did their job. Mariano Rivera was used in the highest leverage situations, 1.71 pLI, and has the highest WPA. Phil Hughes is second with a 1.43 pLI and a 2.4 WPA. Had these two failed more often, their WPA would not be as high.

Two names appear misplaced on the list: Phil Coke and Al Aceves. Aceves has the fourth highest pLI on the team, 1.07, but has a WPA of 1.92, third best in the bullpen. It would appear that Girardi should move Aceves up into higher leverage situations, and perhaps he would have if not for his late-season role as Joba’s caddy. Because Aceves was facing hitters in the fourth, fifth, and sixth innings — sometimes with a run deficit — his pLI dropped. Under normal circumstances, Aceves would move up into higher leverage situations. I expect him to regularly appear in the seventh inning this October.

The other is Phil Coke. It’s hard to get a good read on the rookie lefty’s season. He’s had great stretches and he’s had poor ones. He’s had games where he’s given up six runs, and he’s had appearances where he throws nothing but strikes. The bad appearances have hurt his WPA (as they should), leaving it at 0.88, yet his pLI is 1.29, third highest on the team. Girardi trusts Coke in big spots, and for the most part he comes through. It just seems that when he doesn’t come through, the results are beyond disastrous.

Aside riff:

I’ve always thought that ERA is a terrible indicator of effectiveness for relievers. One bad outing can kill your ERA. See Phil Coke’s blowup against the White Sox. He’s clearly pitched better than his ERA this season. The biggest issue is that relievers work with such small samples. It’s why we see so much volatility from year to year in reliever performances. While WPA is a great narrative tool, I think it can also bring some insight into a reliever’s value. Relievers work in the context of a situation, unlike starters, who help create the context. The game is usually over halfway unfolded once a reliever appears, so he’s mainly pitching in the situation. WPA captures the situation. I’d like to see a bit more work go into this.

Pitching staffs get shortened in the postseason. The Yankees will only need three starters — if they’re willing to start CC in Game 4 of the ALCS on three days’ rest — in the first two rounds. They should also only need three relievers, maybe four. They’ll carry more, but chances are we won’t see pitchers not named CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Phil Hughes, Alfredo Aceves get the ball very often, if at all. These are the guys who have performed best for the Yankees this season, and they’re the ones that will decide the team’s fate.

Given the circumstances, Girardi has done a good job not only of distributing the innings out of the pen, but of putting the right pitcher in the right spot. Sometimes he might make the wrong call, and when he does the fan base is quick to jump on him. Those instances tend to stand out in our minds, though, giving them a bit more weight. When we take a step back and look at the season as a whole, Girardi comes out ahead. Thankfully, other than a few lefty-righty matchups, he won’t have to think much about who to pitch and when. The Yanks relievers have done their job of proving it to him this season.

Bullpen, Melky deliver a sweep

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For nearly five hours, the Yankees and the A’s played an excruciating game of baseball. Over 14 innings, the teams combined for 16 runs, 26 hits and 14 — fourteen! — walks. That the Yanks managed to eke out a 9-7 win is due to two piece who haven’t gotten much love lately: Melky Cabrera and the bullpen.

The game started with CC Sabathia on the hill. Sabathia, who’s had one good start and three mediocre starts as a Yankee, couldn’t locate his fastball gain. In 6.2 innings, he threw 112 pitches but just 59 percent of them, or 66 pitches, for strikes. He scattered six hits but allowed four walks, and those walks hurt. He left the game after blowing a two-run lead in the 7th and gave up seven runs, six earned, while striking out just two. It was one of those days.

Meanwhile, Sabathia’s departure in the seventh was a significant turning point in the game, but no one knew at the time. Joe Girardi trotted Sabathia out to the mound to start the inning when he was over 100 pitches and not flashing his best stuff. The first two runners reached base, and still Joe Girardi did not make the call to the pen. After the first 14 games of the year, Girardi would rather see his struggling ace attempt to battle than anyone trot out of that pen.

The pen though, after last week’s drubbing at the hands of the Indians, did not disappoint. Phil Coke, Jonathan Albaladejo, Mariano Rivera, Damaso Marte, Edwar Ramirez and Jose Veras — everyone except Steven Jackson and Brian Bruney — combined for 7.1 scoreless innings. The sextet combined for three walks, three hits and six strike outs. Even Marte, who by retiring one man lowered his ERA a full 2.10 runs, contributed.

The gold star though goes to Jose Veras. For the second straight appearance, Veras gave the Yankees length, and for the second straight appearance, he did so effectively. Since getting shelled in the stadium opener against Cleveland, Veras has made two appearances. He’s gone 6.1 innings, allowing one hit and one run — both on Saturday — while walking two and striking out six. Order has seemingly been restored to the bullpen for a day.

Offensively, the Yanks plated nine again with the help of the longball. Hideki Matsui and Melky Cabrera went back-to-back in the 2nd to get the Yanks on the board, and Derek Jeter added a solo shot in the 4th. In between, the Yankees went 5 for 12 with runners on base and still managed to strand 13. In reality, this game should have been won long before Melky’s second home run cleared the right field fence in the bottom of the 14th.

Before the 14th though, Melky wasn’t looking like too much of a hero. In the bottom of the 7th, the Yanks loaded the bases with no one out. Melky then struck out on a pitch practically at his eyes, and when Brett Gardner pinch hitting failed to get the run in and Derek made out, the Yanks and A’s were primed for a long, long battle of the bullpens.

But Melky redeemed himself as only Melky can. He smashed a line drive — a true Yankee home run at old Yankee Stadium — and Nick Swisher hit the plate with the winning run. For Melky, his fourth home run of the season and his sixth and seventh RBIs. (Joe will have more on Melky “Mr. April” Cabrera later tonight.)

The Yankees now head up to Boston to play a team that’s won, as of this writing, six in a row. With the bullpen coming together and the offense clicking, we should be in for a weekend of great baseball, and it’s always comforting to leave home with a win, 4-2 on what started out as a bad homestand.

My TV Appearance
For everyone who missed my shot on NBC’s Nightly News with David Ushery yesterday, you can watch it here thanks to the good folks at my dad’s office. I’m not smiling in the first few seconds on air because I didn’t realize the camera was on. I have to work on that. As my girlfriend said, I look like I’m on death row, but once I start talking, it’s all good. It’s a brief bit, and I talk about the empty seats at Yankee Stadium.

Use this as your open thread. We’ll be back with DotF later on.