River Avenue Blues

Athletics 8, Yankees 2: A Sevy & Gary Disaster

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Source: FanGraphs

A nightmarish end to bad series in Oakland. The Athletics pushed the Yankees around all night — they did everything better, especially pitch and defend — and sent New York to an 8-2 loss Wednesday. The Yankees are 3.5 games up for the top wildcard spot and, now that the two teams split the season series, it’s worth nothing the Yankees currently hold the homefield advantage tiebreaker for the Wild Card Game, which is intradivision record (34-26 vs. 30-34). West Coast night games get bullet point recaps — this game doesn’t deserve more than that anyway — so let’s get to it.

  • Disaster Inning: Was the first inning the worst inning of the season? Might’ve been. After stranding the bases loaded in the top half, Luis Severino got knocked around for four runs in the bottom half. Gary Sanchez had a hand in that as well. A piss-poor effort behind the plate led to four pitches to the backstop (they were scored two passed balls and two wild pitches but it could’ve been four passed balls). Severino, meanwhile, allowed four 100+ mph batted balls to the first five batters he faced. Brett Gardner and Andrew McCutchen both had balls hit over their heads. A disaster inning in every possible way.
  • Severino Struggles: Severino is still broken, folks. Maybe moreso than at any other point this season. His line Wednesday night: 2.2 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 3 K on 59 pitches. Eleven balls in play and six at 95 mph or better. His 96.2 mph average fastball velocity was his lowest in any game since April 2016. In his last eleven starts now, he has a 6.83 ERA (4.96 FIP) and opponents are hitting .323/.360/.574 against him. The Yankees should probably skip Severino’s next start entirely and let him catch his breath. A stunning fall from grace, this has been.
  • Two Token Runs: The Yankees had Mike Fiers on the ropes in the first inning. The first three men they sent to the play hit rockets, and back-to-back two-out walks loaded the bases for folk hero Luke Voit. He grounded out to third and that was that. After that first inning 14 of the next 15 men the Yankees sent to the plate made outs. The one baserunner was of course erased on a double play. Seems like the Yankees have hit into a ton of those lately. Anyway, the Yankees scored their two runs in the seventh inning, on an Aaron Hicks walk and a Sanchez two-run homer, his first since coming back from the disabled list.
  • Leftovers: Jonathan Holder (one inning) and Luis Cessa (three innings) both allowed a run in relief. Stephen Tarpley and Tommy Kahnle combined in for a scoreless ninth … Hicks reached base three times (single, two walks) and Sanchez reached base twice (homer, walk). The rest of the Yankees reached twice (Neil Walker and Voit had singles) … let’s close with some good news, shall we? Severino’s first strikeout was his 200th of the season. He is only the third pitcher in franchise history with back-to-back 200-strikeout seasons, joining Ron Guidry (1978-79) and David Cone (1997-98). That blows my mind.

Here are the box score, video highlights, updated standings, and postseason odds. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page. This three-game series is over and the Yankees have an off-day Thursday before beginning a three-game series in Seattle on Friday night. Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton are the scheduled starters for the opener.

DotF: Scranton opens postseason with Game One walk-off win

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Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (3-2 win over Lehigh Valley, walk-off style) they lead the best-of-five series one game to none

1. CF Shane Robinson: 0-5, 2 K
2. LF Mark Payton: 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB — walk-off solo homer
3. SS Gio Urshela: 3-4, 1 2B, 1 E (throwing) — good game at the plate, but the error contributed to the game-tying two-run rally in the sixth
4. DH Mike Ford: 0-3, 1 BB, 2 K
PR-DH Quintin Berry: 0-0 — seems like the Andrew McCutchen trade took him out of the running for a September call-up
5. 1B Ryan McBroom: 1-4, 2 K
6. 3B Bruce Caldwell: 0-3
7. RF Zack Zehner: 1-2, 2 BB
8. 2B L.J. Mazzilli: 1-4, 1 R
9. C Francisco Diaz: 2-4, 1 R, 1 K — 5-for-10 in his last three games
RHP Erik Swanson: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1/1 GB/FB — 35 of 56 pitches were strikes (63%) … his velocity was reportedly down 2-3 mph, though I don’t know if that contributed to the early exit … he’s already set a new career high in innings and might’ve been capped at 50-ish pitches … UPDATE: Conor Foley says Swanson left the game with a sore groin, so there you go … he missed time with a groin injury earlier this year
RHP Brady Lail: 2 IP, zeroes, 1 K, 2/2 GB/FB — 20 of 34 pitches were strikes (59%)
LHP Justus Sheffield: 1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 2/0 GB/FB — 14 of 22 pitches were strikes (64%) … using him for one inning tonight probably means they can bring him back as soon as Game Three on Friday
RHP Raynel Espinal: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1/1 GB/FB — 23 of 35 pitches were strikes (66%) … had a 3.09 ERA with 95/26 K/BB in 67 innings during the regular season
RHP Joe Harvey: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 2/0 GB/FB — ten pitches, eight strikes … he’s their closer and their best late-inning guy, plus he’s not really a prospect, so I imagine he’ll be available again tomorrow after throwing only ten pitches tonight

Double-A Trenton Thunder (8-0 loss to New Hampshire) they trail the best-of-five series one game to none

1. 2B Gosuke Katoh: 1-5, 2 K
2. DH Dom Thompson-Williams: 0-4, 1 K– promoted from Tampa for the postseason after hitting .299/.363/.546 (157 wRC+) with a farm system leading 22 homers in 100 regular season games … I thought OF Estevan Florial would get bumped home for the postseason, but it’s DTW instead … Florial is presumably heading to Instructional League before the Arizona Fall League season begins next month
3. 1B Brandon Wagner: 0-3, 1 BB, 1 K
4. LF Trey Amburgey: 0-4, 1 K
5. SS Kyle Holder: 3-3, 1 BB, 1 CS — 6-for-11 (.545) in his last three games
6. RF Jhalan Jackson: 0-3, 1 BB, 3 K
7. CF Rashad Crawford: 0-3, 1 BB, 2 K
8. C Jorge Saez: 2-4, 2 K
9. 3B Angel Aguilar: 3-4, 1 K — 28-for-82 (.341) with six homers in his last 21 games
RHP Brian Keller: 7 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HB, 13/1 GB/FB — 59 of 80 pitches were strikes (74%) … big ground ball night for a guy who had a 39.3% ground ball rate during the regular season
LHP James Reeves: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, 1/0 GB/FB — 15 of 31 pitches were strikes (48%) … he’d been out since August 21st with a mystery injury
RHP Hobie Harris: 0.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 1/0 GB/FB — only six of 15 pitches were strikes (40%)

The season is over for the High-A Tampa Tarpons, the Low-A Charleston RiverDogs, the Short Season Staten Island Yankees, the Rookie Pulaski Yankees, and the two Rookie GCL Yankees affiliates. None of those teams qualified for the postseason.

Game 140: Sevy For The Series Win

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(Presswire)

Pretty big win last night. The Athletics are coming after the Yankees for homefield advantage in the wildcard game and, after getting shut down for five innings, the Yankees rallied late against a good bullpen. Good response after Monday’s loss. Here are the current wildcard standings:

  1. Yankees: 87-52
  2. Athletics: 83-57 (4.5 GB)
    ——————————
  3. Mariners: 77-62 (10 GB)
  4. Rays: 75-63 (11.5 GB)

The same as two days ago, basically. Which is good for the Yankees because there are two fewer games on the schedule now. The series ain’t over yet though, and tonight’s game will determine whether the Yankees go into tomorrow’s off-day with a 3.5-game lead or a 5.5-game lead. Go win the series. Here are tonight’s lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Brett Gardner
2. DH Giancarlo Stanton
3. RF Andrew McCutchen
4. CF Aaron Hicks
5. C Gary Sanchez
6. 1B Luke Voit
7. 3B Neil Walker
8. SS Adeiny Hechavarria
9. 2B Gleyber Torres

RHP Luis Severino

Oakland Athletics
1. CF Ramon Laureano
2. 3B Matt Chapman
3. 2B Jed Lowrie
4. DH Khris Davis
5. 1B Matt Olson
6. RF Stephen Piscotty
7. SS Marcus Semien
8. LF Chad Pinder
9. C Josh Phegley

RHP Mike Fiers

Another chilly evening with clear skies in the Bay Area. Great night to spend at the ballpark. First pitch is scheduled for 10:05pm ET and you can watch on YES locally or MLB Network out-of-market. Enjoy the game, folks.

Injury Update: Didi Gregorius (heel) went through another full day of workouts and will “probably” be activated Friday, according to Aaron Boone … Aaron Judge (wrist) hit off a tee for the third straight day and again reported no issues. His rehab plan is still being mapped out, but he’s making progress … Clint Frazier (post-concussion migraines) suffered a setback and is unlikely to return this season. Poor kid. He was preparing to join Double-A Trenton for the postseason when his symptoms flared up again. Get healthy, Clint. See you in Tampa in a few months.

Wednesday Night Open Thread

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The Yankees are still out on the West Coast, which means first pitch is still a few hours a day. The 10pm ET midweek starts are the worst. Late starts on Friday or Saturday are fine. Tuesday and Wednesday though? Blah. Well, anyway, make sure check out Grant Brisbee on the 1998 home run chase. I know, I know. Back-to-back days with a Brisbee link. But it’s good and he’s good. You should read it.

Here’s an open thread until the game thread comes along a little later. MLB Network will have regional games tonight and ESPN+ will have the Cubs and Brewers. Anything except religion or politics goes here. Talk about whatever.

Even with rosters expanded, the Yankees lack a quality righty pinch-hitter on the bench

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Adeiny the bench bat. (Presswire)

Five days ago September call-ups arrived and the Yankees and every other team brought up extra player from the minors. The Yankees are carrying 31 players on the active roster (15 position players, 16 pitchers) and it’ll be 32 players once Didi Gregorius returns from the disabled list, which could be as soon as Friday. No more worrying about running out of relievers or playing guys out of position.

Once Gregorius returns the Yankees will have seven players on their bench, and, on any given night, these will be the seven players and their roles:

  • Backup Catcher: Austin Romine
  • Third Catcher: Kyle Higashioka
  • Utility Infielder: Ronald Torreyes
  • Defensive Specialist: Adeiny Hechavarria
  • Designated Speedster: Tyler Wade
  • Pinch-Hitter, Maybe?: Greg Bird
  • Neil Walker: Neil Walker

Walker has somewhat predictably cooled of late as his playing time has decreased, though at this point I think he remains the team’s top pinch-hitting option against right-handed batters. I know Bird almost hit that pinch-hit grand slam the other day, but his bat still looks frighteningly slow, and I’m not really sure how you can send him up to the plate in a big spot as your top pinch-hitting option.

Even if you consider Bird a good pinch-hitting option, the Yankees are still short a right-handed bat on the bench. Walker is a switch-hitter who is hitting .174/.237/.246 (30 wRC+) against lefties this year, and his struggles against southpaws date back several seasons (career 86 wRC+ vs. LHP), so it’s not small sample size noise. He’s a switch-hitter in name only. That leaves, uh, Romine or Torreyes as the top righty bench bat? Yikes.

This isn’t a minor detail either. It has come into play the last two nights. On Monday, with the Yankees down three and two runners on base in the seventh inning, Walker was sent up as a pinch-hitter against a righty, and the A’s countered with lefty Ryan Buchter. Buchter retired Walker and Brett Gardner, a .250/.321/.339 (83 wRC+) hitter against lefties this year, to snuff out the rally.

Last night Buchter was brought in to face Gardner with a runner on base in a one-run game and the Yankees had no countermove. That one actually worked out okay in a weird way. Buchter picked Gleyber Torres off first base to end the inning, then Gardner started the game-tying rally the next inning with an infield single into the 5.5 hole. That doesn’t seem like a sustainable strategy, Gardner beating out infield singles against lefties.

The right-handed pinch-hitter down the stretch was supposed to be Luke Voit, but instead he’s in the starting lineup because he’s mashing dingers (and Bird has been terrible). Having Walker to pinch-hit against righties and Voit to pinch-hit against lefties would be fine. Instead, the Yankees have Walker to pinch-hit against righties, no one obvious to pinch-hit against lefties, and Bird without a clear role.

The Yankees only have one seemingly viable right-handed pinch-hitting option in Triple-A: Ryan McBroom, a first baseman by trade who played some outfield this year, and hit .302/.348/.458 (125 wRC+) with 15 homers between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton this year. The Yankees got him from the Blue Jays in the Rob Refsnyder trade last year. They could bring McBroom up and let him take his hacks against lefties as a pinch-hitter.

Or maybe this isn’t a big deal at all. Aaron Judge started swinging a bat earlier this week and is inching closer to a return, and once he does get back, the Yankees will have five players (Gardner, Judge, Aaron Hicks, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton) for four lineup spots (three outfield plus DH). If Gardner is in the lineup, that means one of the other four guys will be on the bench and available to pinch-hit against a lefty.

Until Judge returns (if Judge returns?), the Yankees don’t have an obvious pinch-hitting option against a lefty pitcher, and it burned them two nights ago. It nearly burned them last night. Maybe bringing up McBroom as a short-term bench bat until Judge returns makes sense, just to have that power righty bat on the bench. Otherwise the best option is probably sending Torreyes up there, and hoping he contact bombs the pitcher and finds outfield grass.

Happ is open to re-signing with the Yankees and the Yankees should have interest in a reunion

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(Thearon W. Henderson/Getty)

Last night J.A. Happ bounced back from his worst start as a Yankee with a gem against the Athletics, holding them to two hits and one run in six innings. It was Happ at his best. Fastballs in, out, up, down, and with juuust enough offspeed stuff mixed in to keep hitters honest. It’s a bit unconventional, sure, but it works for Happ and has for several years now.

The 35-year-old Happ has a 3.10 ERA (4.77 FIP) in 40.2 innings with the Yankees, and a 3.90 ERA (4.08 FIP) in 154.2 innings overall this season. He hasn’t been as good as the last few seasons (3.43 ERA and 3.72 FIP from 2015-17), but he’s been steady and reliable, and that’s exactly what the Yankees needed at the trade deadline. Happ has been as advertised, and if the Yankees are thinking about a reunion next year, he’s open to it.

“I’d hate to get too far into that, but the one thing that I’ll say is, I’ve been impressed since I came over here with how things have worked so far and all the baseball-related things have been a positive,” said Happ to Brendan Kuty. “So, I think I’d be foolish to cross anybody off the list. But, yes, certainly, judging by how the first month has gone, it would be a place that I for sure would consider coming back if there was interest.”

Happ is an impending free agent and this is likely his last chance to cash in big. He does have a World Series ring (2008 Phillies) and hey, he might get another one this year. It’s possible his top priority in free agency will be contract size, not maximizing his chances to win. I’ll never ever begrudge a player for going after the money. That’s what I’d do. Does a reunion make sense? Let’s talk this out a bit.

1. The Yankees are going to need a starter. I mean, duh. Pretty much every team goes into the offseason needing a starting pitcher. The Yankees are no different. At the moment their projected 2019 rotation looks something like this:

  1. Luis Severino
  2. Masahiro Tanaka
  3. CC Sabathia
  4. ???
  5. ???

Barring a change of heart, Sabathia is coming back. He wants to pitch next season and the Yankees love him, so I’d bet a farm on another one-year contract. Sabathia is actually getting better with age — he’s gone from a 110 ERA+ to a 122 ERA+ to a 124 ERA+ the last three seasons — and finding someone to replace everything he brings to the table won’t be easy. He’s coming back and I’m all for it.

Anyway, Sonny Gray seems destined to be traded over the winter and Jordan Montgomery won’t be back until the second half of the season following Tommy John surgery, so the Yankees can’t count on him. I suppose those last two spots could go to some combination of Justus Sheffield, Chance Adams, Jonathan Loaisiga, Luis Cessa, and Domingo German (and Mike King!). That strikes me as the worst case scenario though. Even with Sabathia coming back, there is a clear need for another starter.

2. He’s turning 36 soon. That’s a red flag. Indeed. Happ turns 36 in October and is getting to the point where baseball players can decline drastically even when you don’t see it coming. “I don’t really look into the age thing. I know teams and people in general will be. I feel like I’ve sort of been an outlier of that trend for the last couple of years … I know that I do want to play several more years and at that point, we’ll just see what happens,” Happ said to Kuty.

The thing is, even at his age, Happ is improving. He is an outlier. He’s striking out more batters and getting more soft contact with each passing year. Look at this:

On one hand, Happ is going to peak at some point and decline, and, given his age, it could happen very soon. Those strikeout and soft contact trends won’t continue forever. On the other hand, Happ is starting from a pretty high baseline now. He could lose some strikeouts and soft contact and still be pretty good. There is much more to life than strikeouts and soft contact, but, when trying to forecast future performance, they’re a good place to look.

The reasons to bring Happ back are fairly obvious. He’s good, he’s AL East battle tested, and he’s a low maintenance veteran who has no issues with playing in New York. At this point age-related decline is an undeniable risk with Happ though. Whichever team signs him will assume that risk. You sign him hoping he ages like Andy Pettitte or Hiroki Kuroda, and aware of the fact he might age like Derek Lowe or Adam Wainwright, and just go in the tank in his mid-30s.

3. What will it cost? I have no idea. The free agent market changed completely last season. Quality free agents wound up signing sweetheart deals late in the offseason because they had nowhere else to turn. I dunno if teams were colluding or what, but whatever it was, it worked! Players signed super cheap. I expect that to happen again this year. Teams have shown they’ll wait the players out and they’ll use it to their advantage.

Happ, however, might be one of the free agents who gets a market rate contract early in free agency because he’s not going to require a long-term contract. His age ensures that. John Lackey got a two-year deal worth $32M three years ago, before his age 37 season, which might be a benchmark for Happ. Lackey then was a year older than Happ now, but he was coming off a much better contract year (2.77 ERA and 3.57 FIP). Ryan Dempster got two years and $26.5M at Happ’s age, so maybe that’s more appropriate.

Part of me thinks the current free agent climate will lead to Happ taking a one-year deal, or maybe one year with an option. And another part of me realizes the outlier team is usually the one that gets the free agent. It only takes one team to offer that second year, you know? Look at the upcoming free agent class. The best starting pitchers are clearly Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, and Patrick Corbin. Isn’t Happ next? A team could jump on him early knowing he’s getting a short-term deal no matter what, and that team might be the Yankees.

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This isn’t something the Yankees should worry about right now. Even if the Yankees are interested in re-signing Happ, they’re not going to sign him to an extension, because his luxury tax hit would get recalculated and screw up the luxury tax plan. This will wait until the offseason no matter what. The Yankees and Happ have more important things to worry about now.

Given everything we know right now, the Yankees should have interest in bringing Happ back next year, because he’s a damn good pitcher and because the contract terms don’t figure to be outrageous. He’s the perfect veteran stabilizing force for the middle of the rotation. As long as Happ doesn’t collapse down the stretch, I suspect we’re going to hear a lot about a potential reunion in a few weeks.

Who knows how long it will last, but Luke Voit is giving the Yankees exactly what they need right now

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(Presswire)

I’ve been watching baseball long enough to know every great time has surprise contributors. The best teams are the teams that not only go into the season with the best players, but they’re also the teams that have players come out of nowhere to contribute big. Last year it was Marwin Gonzalez for the Astros. The year before it was Kyle Hendricks for the Cubs. Solid contributors became stars.

For the Yankees, their currently big out-of-nowhere contributor is first baseman Luke Voit, who clocked another home run last night. It was a game-winner too. His solo homer against Fernando Rodney gave the Yankees a 2-1 seventh inning lead in the eventual 5-1 win. It was Voit’s third straight game with a homer and his seventh homer in his last 12 games.

As great as last night’s homer was, I thought Monday’s was more impressive. Rodney left an 81 mph changeup out over the plate last night. That thing screamed “hit me!” On Monday night though, Voit belted a 93 mph sinker at the knees over the high wall in right-center field. That ain’t easy.

These out-of-nowhere types can arrive in different ways. Gonzalez was a career utility man who put a together an All-Star season at the plate. Hendricks was a young up-and-coming player who dead fish changeup-ed his way to Cy Young votes. They’d been with their teams for several years and it all came together at the right time.

That is not the case with Voit. At least not the “been with their teams for several years” part. The Yankees got him from the Cardinals on July 28th, so he wasn’t even in the organization six weeks ago, and at the time of the trade he was no better than third on the first base depth chart behind Greg Bird and Tyler Austin. Austin was traded a few days later, but Voit was still behind Bird, so much so that he spent two stints with Triple-A Scranton.

It took Bird not just being awful, but looking absolutely miserable at the plate for Voit to even crack the starting lineup. Let’s be real here, had Bird been hitting into some bad luck or something like that, he was staying in the lineup. Instead, he was swinging through center-cut 90 mph fastballs. There’s no power behind his swing at all. Voit started against the Orioles on August 24th, went deep twice, and has forced his was into everyday duty.

Last night’s game was Voit’s sixth consecutive start and ninth start in the last ten games. Bird has three starts and 12 plate appearances in the last 12 games. A Wally Pipping is in progress. Voit is crushing home runs — he’s crushing them against righties too, only one of his seven dingers with the Yankees has come against a southpaw — and Didi Gregorius has even given him an emoji (an ox). It’s Twitter official now. Voit’s a Yankee.

“We’re all just kind of smiling because we’re waiting to see what antics he might have running around the bases, or if he’s going to leap and fist bump and chest bump and get the crowd going,” said Aaron Boone following last night’s game. In addition to the dingers, Voit is a real high energy player. He’s got that Sammy Sosa hop after home runs, and he points to the dugout and pumps his teammates up as he rounds the bases. It’s great.

Here’s the thing: I have no idea how long this will last. Maybe forever! But there does seem to be a little Shane Spencer magic here, meaning an older rookie (Voit is 27) crushing homers and adding some life to a very good Yankees team that needs a little kick in the pants, and we all know how Spencer turned out. After all, is what Voit’s doing now really all that different than what Austin did earlier this year? Austin his six homers in 14 games at one point, remember, and I was getting mailbag questions about whether he was first baseman of the future. Maybe Voit is the Yankees’ Max Muncy and this is sustainable to a degree.

I do believe Voit is a better hitter than Austin because he doesn’t swing-and-miss nearly as much (14.1% vs. 19.0% whiff rates) and he seems to hang in against offspeed stuff better. Also, Voit is an exit velocity rock star. His average 92.2 mph exit velocity 26th highest among players with 25 batted balls. That’s Mookie Betts (92.3 mph) and Manny Machado (92.2 mph) territory. Austin ranks 161st with an 89.1 mph average exit velocity. That is … meh.

I do think Voit is better than Austin, but that hardly guarantees Voit will have long-term success. Here’s the thing though: Who cares about the long-term? Worry about that another time. Right now, the Yankees need some help offensively, especially with Bird looking lost, and Voit has provided that help. A lot of help too. He’s hitting .322/.385/.678 in 19 games with the Yankees. It happened and it’s in the bank, and the Yankees will ride this production as long as possible the rest of the year.

“I think we’re going to get hot at the right time,” said Voit following last night’s game. “This team is so freaking dangerous. Especially when we get some of these guys back from injuries, the sky is the limit. I’m excited to get deep into the playoffs with this team.”