Aug
20

Elias Rankings formula cracked

By

Eddie Bajek at Tigers Thoughts has, with as he calls “reasonable certainty,” reverse-engineered the formula used to determine Type-A & B free agents, and has posted the current rankings of AL catchers. Pudge comes in as the highest ranked Type-B free agent, 0.891 points behind Ramon Hernandez. Under the new CBA, Type-A Type-B FA’s do not need to be offered arbitration to bring compensation. I’d rather see Pudge pick up his game and take the risk of offering arbitration. (h/t MLBTR)

Update (4:51pm): Nevermind, both Type-A & Type-B free agents need to be offered arbitration to yield compensation picks. My bad, yo.

Categories : Asides, Hot Stove League
  • steve (different one)

    Under the new CBA, Type-A FA’s do not need to be offered arbitration to bring compensation.

    typo?

    should this read “Type B”?

    • Glen L

      even then i thought it was only if the Type B FA signed with another team before December 1? … i could certainly be wrong on that

      • Ed

        Everyone needs to be offered arbitration to get compensation, type A or B, regardless of signing date.

        The December 1st thing is a technicality. Arbitration offers can be submitted at any time before Dec 1, even if the player has signed with another team. If they’ve already signed, then the offer is automatically declined. So the team is still technically offering the player arbitration even though it can’t be accepted.

        If you recall, there was a big fuss over the Yankees signing Sheffield. The Yankees and Sheffield agreed to the deal early, but then put off signing it so that Atlanta wouldn’t offer arbitration. I think the talk about signing Vlad instead was largely so that Atlanta wouldn’t think the Yanks/Sheffield deal was a sure thing.

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

          You are correct sir, my mistake.

          • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos

            Zombie #1: Excuse me, I’m John Smith.
            Zombie #2: John Smith, 1882?
            Zombie #1: My mistake!

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      It was a typo, my bad. Type-B’s do not need to be offered arbitration, Type-A’s certainly do.

  • jsbrendog

    yeah thats what i was going to ask.

  • Reggie C.

    How the heck is the Jason Varitek a Type A free agent ?? The man is hitting .218 for gods sake !!

    • Chris A

      production from the last TWO years my friend, i bet he becomes a type b tho.

      • bklynJT

        Thats bs… his numbers from the last 2 years are crap.

        What are the evaluated stats for catchers?

        Varitek:
        2006 .238/.325/.400 12hr 55rbi
        2007 .255 /.367/.421 17hr 68 rbi

        Pudge
        2006 .300/.332 /.437 13hr 69rbi
        2007 .281/.294/.420 11hr 63rbi

        • A.D.

          very odd that Tek is ahead, HR must be giving him a big boost

  • r.w.g.

    It will be a careful balancing act in the off-season to determine who gets offered arbitration to offset the picks the team will lose when it signs free agents.

  • Adam

    rather then pudge pick up his game, it would be easier to simply play him more. using him 3 out of every 5 games (in a seemingly lost season) is depressing his counting stats. the yankees need to ride him as hard as they can for the rest of the season to boost his counting stats.

    of course, there is no way they offer him arbitration, as he would likely accept because he won’t get $10 million on the open market. so i suppose the point is probably moot.

    • cult of basebaal

      of course, he won’t get 10 mil in arbitration, either. more like 6 or 7, and *that* my friend he will get a multi-year contract worth in excess of …

      • Count Zero

        Precisely. No way Pudge accepts arbitration — you definitely offer it to him.

        Think about what Jorge got last season Adam. He would have to be a fool to accept arbitration when he is certain to get a multi-year deal as a FA.

        • bklynJT

          I doubt he will accept arbitration knowing that we already have Posada and Molina.

    • Chris

      All Cashman has do is tell him if he accepts arbitration, he will be a third string catcher behind Posada and Molina. He won’t accept that because he can almost be assured of a starting job somewhere else (or at worst a 50/50 split).

      • A.D.

        Boras + Pudge = No Arb

  • bill

    If Pudge becomes a type-A, we would get a higher compensation pick than if he was a type-B, right? Pudge has to start hitting, cuz he has done NOTHING since he got here.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      Yes. If he’s a Type-A, the Yanks would get the signing team’s first round pick as well as a sandwich pick. Type-B’s only bring a sandwich pick. Furthermore, sandwich picks from Type-A FA’s come before those from Type-B’s in the sandwich round.

      • bill

        All this talk of sandwich rounds is making me hungry

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos

          Quit cogitating, Steinmetz, and use an open faced club! A sand wedge!

  • Adrian-Retire21

    Hopefully Pudge is a type B free agent.Because Mussina,Abeau and Giambi might be Type A free agents and Giambi will probaly accept Arbitration and the Yankees could use the picks and finally get rid of Giambi.

    Since the Yankees didn’t sign there 1st and 2nd round picks this year does that mean we get two picks the first two rounds next year?

    Because I’m guessing the Yankees will go after big Class A Free agents (CC) and will have to give up some of there picks.

    • cult of basebaal

      simple to remember.

      ALL compensation picks are protected.

      so any compensation pick for a pick we failed to sign this year is protected, as well as any pick(s) we get for losing one of our typed free agents …

      • bill

        So potentially we could have an abundance of picks next year. That might not matter a whole lot, because I hear next year’s class is not as strong as this year’s. I hope we can manage to grab some major talent to make up for this year’s debacle.

        • pat

          i think its waaaay too early for people to say next years draft. Right now it doesnt look good bexause anybody who looked decent was drafted. Theres always gonna be brett marshall’s out there who jump 10 mph between jr and sr year or college players that have breakout year. Ill take 3, 4 or even 5 first round draft picks ANY year

          • bill

            I agree that Brett Marshall can be good, but I’m still getting over the Gerrit Cole non-signing. I cant forgive Cole or the Yanks for not getting that deal done. Cole and his father are mostly to blame and there might not have been much the Yankees could have done, but that non-signing as well as the questionable corresponding picks (Bleich, Bittle) leaves me bitter still. The Cole non-signing could come back to bite us, similar to Mark Prior’s case. Thats why the Yankees BETTER have a strong draft next year, because this year’s draft was a dissapointment and embarrassment to myself and many other Yankee fans.

            • pat

              an embarrassment?
              no freaking way man we have gotten very spoiled if you say this years draft was an embarrassment. marshall richardson cojo smith lassiter higashoika bleich turley adams marsuzak phelps etc. Bittle was injured and cole pulled some shit. Thats not a bad draft at all dude granted its not 06 with joba and crew but still far from embarrassing.

              • bill

                That’s exactly what this year’s draft was – an embarrassment. Not signing your first round pick is an embarrassment no matter the circumstances. That’s the kind of shit that happens to the Royals and Nationals, not the New York Fuckin Yankees. The only people I like from this draft are Marshall, Maruszk, and maybe Lassiter. Other than that, major dissappointment. There is no such thing as a successful draft in which you fail to sign your first round pick, I’m sorry.

                • pat

                  you obviously have no idea the circumstances regarding the cole-non sign or anything about any of the other draftees. ur ignorance is palapble

    • whozat

      Pudge will not accept arbitration to be a backup to Jorge Posada. So we DEFINITELY want him to be a Type A. Based on Giambi’s poor numbers last year, I could see him being a Type B. Which kinda makes it better for the Yanks; they don’t have to risk him accepting arbitration if they don’t want him and they still get the pick. But…there are also reasons to hang on to Giambi. That’s a complicated situation.

      Either way, we want Pudge to hit well for the rest of the season, no doubt. And it’d be nice to get a first round pick for SOMEONE who leaves (Pudge or Bobby most likely) to replace the pick we’ll lose for CC or Tex.

  • p

    Pudge being type A would be great. Because he is a certain amount of years past his rookie arbitration elegibility he is not subject to the %20 rule meaning he can be offered a 1 yr salary less than %20 less than his current contract. very verbose of me but yall know what i mean.
    also giambi isnt guaranteed type a bc the equation takes into account last 2 yrs performance and the giambino didnt have a great year last year.

    • cult of basebaal

      actually, it’s anyone eligible for free agency is no longer subject to the max 20% arbitration pay cut stipulation in the CBA …

      • pat

        word thats essentialy what i was trying to say thanks for the clarification yo.

  • rbizzler

    If you check the comments section, it seems as though Pudge is VERY close to becoming a Type A FA. A few OBP or batting average points or a few runs, homers or rbi’s is all it will take to put him in the next tier and get the Yanks the extra pick.

    Question: Is it better for Pudge to be a Type A or a Type B? Would a team really sign him to a long-term deal if they had to give up a pick? Type B FA’s only garner sandwich rounders right?

    • cult of basebaal

      well, if he’s type A, he going to be somewhere around the 12th or so best catcher in the game … i’d say someone’s going to want to take a shot at giving that player a 2-3 year deal

      worst case is he accepts, we get him for 7-9 million … we eat some money and trade him to somebody for a prospect …

      there’s really nothing catastrophic in the downside, at least to my eyes …

      • rbizzler

        I am not worried about him accepting arb. He can always be moved after he is resigned.

        My question was/is, would a team really give up a pick to sign Pudge? If not, is it better for him to be rated a type B FA as the team signing him doesn’t have to give up a pick?

        • cult of basebaal

          and my answer is, if he’s a type A, he’s going to be one of the top 12 catchers in MLB and i think someone is going to be willing to sign him to deal, probably 2 years + an option …

          • rbizzler

            Correction, the Elias rankings mean that Pudge WAS one of the top 12 catchers in the game ove the past two seasons. If a team still thinks that he will be productive next year and beyond is yet to be determined.

            Would you give up your first round pick or high second rounder for his services?

            • pat

              They only take your 1st round pick and the second one comes from the sandwich round. Its essentially pulled out of thin air and given as compensation

              • ribizzler

                I am aware that you only lose one pick for signing a Type A FA. You only lose your first rounder if you pick in the bottom 15 of the first round as the top 15 selections are ‘protected’. Teams in the top 15 of the draft give up a second rounder for signing a type A.

                Question remains, would you give up a first or second rounder for Pudge?

            • Ed

              The top 2 guys in the AL rankings (Martinez & Posada) both missed most of this season due to surgery on their throwing arms. Who knows what you can expect out of them going forward. So factor that in when comparing Pudge to the alternatives…

            • cult of basebaal

              would *i*?
              no.
              but i also wouldn’t sign carlos silvas to a 48@4 contract either, or any of the many other myriad of stupid deals that GMs have done over the last couple of years.

              pudge is still average (for a catcher) with the bat and still considered one of the best behind the plate … if there’s a team that really needs a catcher, some GM will sign him to a deal like the one i proposed … draft pick be damned.

              • ribizzler

                I agree that GM’s are prone to foolish deals and value odd traits in players (Silva’s durability being a prime example).

                I am just not convinced anyone is giving up a high pick to sign post-roids Pudge the singles hitter. Hopefully someone takes the plunge though.

  • THU

    If Tek is a Type A, Pavano’s got to be a Type B.

    I really hope Pudge can pull off a Type A, if he fell from a Type A to a Type B in 2 weeks, he can always pull off a type A again by the end of the year and hopefully kicking Tek back to a Type B.

    • Ed

      Plate appearances, games played and innings pitched are among the stats used to determine the rankings. There are more counting stats included than ratio stats. The result is playing everyday helps you a lot in the rankings.

      Results of this mean guys like Varitek and lousy inning eater pitchers get ranked higher than you’d expect. A guy like Joba wouldn’t get ranked very highly.

  • Zack

    That Varitek can still qualify as a type A despite 2 out of the last 3 seasons being beyond useless and last season being just slightly above league average (with still terrible #s) tells you all you need to know about the stat of catching in MLB. Man, those are some awful hitters…

  • pat

    i think tek would accept arbitration anyway hopefully screwing the sox outta those 1 or 2 picks

    • bill

      He screwed the Sux enough this year with his awful offensive production, lets hope for more.

  • pat

    interestingly enough this article has since been taken down by mlbtr. weird

    • pat

      weird how fucking stupid I am

  • JK

    To determine Type A status they look at current and previous year not 2006. Martinez & Posada are not type A this year, so unless he falls off a cliff I-rod should be a type a free agent.

  • JRVJ

    I’m late on this, but to the extent that there’s a risk that Pudge will accept arbitration, surely that risk diminishes if he’s a B free agent.

    My reasoning is that teams know what’s going on, and they realize that a B free agent (especially one who almost an A) only costs money, because you don’t lose a draft pick. Thus, a very high B FA like Pudge might actually get a little extra $$$ in FA than a very low A FA.

    Yes, I’d rather Pudge be an A aFA nd sign with another team before the deadline, but being a (very high) B does have slight advantages for the Yanks and for Pudge.

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos

      While that’s a possible scenario, I find it unlikely. Yes, the fact that you have to surrender a 1st rounder for signing a type A makes them slightly less desirable, but that’s offset by the fact that Type A’s are, virtually by definition (notice i said virtually, not always) better players than Type B’s.

      Most GM’s who are looking to fill a hole in free agency are much, much more concerned with the quality of the player they’re signing to fill said hole than with the draft pick compensation that the player will require. So I doubt that Theo Epstein or Josh Byrnes are going to try and convince themselves that they’re making a smart decision in signing Ramon Hernandez instead of Ivan Rodriguez because they don’t have to kick in the 27th pick in the crapshoot known as the Rule IV draft.

      Whether he’s a Type A or Type B, Pudge is still going to be the best option at catcher to hit the market (unless he makes some totally ridiculous contract demands, that is.) And somebody will sign him, draft pick be damned.

      Jason Varitek, on the other hand… that draft pick compensation would seriously scare away ANYBODY. Methinks that he won’t even get offered arbitration at all. If they offer, he’d probably take it because he won’t get anything better. Theo’s not that dumb.

      Jason Varitek: The first ever All-Star Game player to not even be offered arbitration.