Oct
28

Final nail in the Peavy coffin

By

When it became public that the Padres planned to shop Jake Peavy this winter, Yankees fans got a bit excited. Why not? The 27-year-old has been stellar throughout his major league career, and is a veritable ace. However, given his age and his slightly below market contract, we knew that it would take a considerable package of prospects, rife with major-league ready youngsters, to convince Kevin Towers, Sandy Alderson, Paul DePodesta, and company to send Peavy packing for the East Coast.

Then we got news that Peavy doesn’t exactly want to pitch in the AL. He’s more comfortable in the NL, where he has pitched his entire career. Okay, so that’s a strike against Peavy in pinstripes. There was a later report claiming that Peavy hates New York and would not approve a trade here. That’s hearsay, though, and can’t be taken at face value. If the Padres liked what the Yanks were offering, and both teams made it attractive enough for Peavy to make the move, he might still be amenable.

From the latest news, though, it looks like we’ve heard the last connection between Peavy and the Bronx. Tim links to an article in the San Diego Union Tribune in which Peavy agent Barry Axelrod said that Peavy can be compared to top free agent CC Sabathia:

“It’s not that far of a stretch to say this is a free-agent situation,” Axelrod said, “and if there is a guy like Sabathia out there, we would have to look at what any given team is going to pay Sabathia, because he and Jake won the Cy Young award in the same year, and we’re going to put Jake on the same plane as this guy.”

“If it is someplace where Jake is being asked to make massive change and someplace he may not really want to go, it may take more enticement to get him to agree,” Axelrod said.

So we’re back to paying twice for the player. Not that it really matters. If Peavy does in fact require a CC-esque extension to accept a trade somewhere, chances are that team wouldn’t offer the same package as they would if he came as-is. At that point, it’s doubtful San Diego would take a sub-optimal package because of Peavy’s demands.

All this is to say: let’s stop dreaming of Peavy. It’s a nice idea in theory, but in practice it doesn’t look like the Yanks have the players (they’re willing to part with) and the motivation to get this done.

Categories : Hot Stove League

78 Comments»

  1. Slugger27 says:

    good… i didnt like it from the beginning

    would rather keep hughes and cano and ajax and melancon and whoever else than to get peavy even at his contract, which i still dont think is THAT nice of a bargain

    • yankee7 says:

      Re: Hughes. Of course it’s hindsight now ..but what is this love affair with Hughes??? He could have been the primary player in a deal to get probably the top pitcher in baseball….!!!!!!! However, management felt he’s our long term answer for no. starter. SANTANA is that guy. Proven also. Are you kidding me??. All the top scouts have noticed Hughes in the AFL does not have command of his breaking ball and he has lost velocity on his fastball . Not the mention that fact that he’s starting to look like a potato chip. As far as Cano goes…..he needs Bowa back in the fold to kick his BUTT!! He’s as undisciplined as a batter as I have ever seen. He’s lazy and is just not a smart hitter.

  2. Yank Crank 20 says:

    Good. If he doesn’t want to pitch in New York and hates New York City, than I don’t want him wearing Yankee pinstripes. Simple as that.

  3. Yankees=warriors says:

    Can’t say I’m disappointed.
    You never know how a NL pitcher will do in the AL.

  4. Reggie C. says:

    Makes life easier for Cash and company. Now lets make sure we sign at least 1 of Burnett, Sabathia, or Sheets.

    And if Matt Cain ‘comes available, lets kick the tires on a trade. You can never have too many projectable front-line guys.

  5. christopher says:

    dont mind unless the yankees get CC who they need – i would have givena load for him if we could have him at that contract.

    speaking of pitching, one thing that i dont get is that if the yanks are so interested in burnett, than why not sheets? imo he is a better pitcher, both are injury prone, and sheets will come cheaper.

    would be poetic justice considering it was yankee money that paid sabathia’s and sheets salary last year anyway – may as well get something for it

    • steve (different one) says:

      speaking of pitching, one thing that i dont get is that if the yanks are so interested in burnett, than why not sheets? imo he is a better pitcher, both are injury prone, and sheets will come cheaper.

      i agree that Sheets is better, and even if both are “injury prone”, i think the injury risks are much different.

      Sheets came down with a tear in a muscle near his elbow right at the end of the season. he *could* be looking at TJS sometime soon. he could also be fine. but we don’t really have any way of knowing that.

      Burnett has been injured at times in the past, but he is currently 100% healthy. Sheets has been injured at times in the past, but he is currently injured.

      huge difference in my opinion.

      • radnom says:

        But that is exactly why Sheets is a better fit. Burnett is being looked at as a possible reliable front line guy as an alternative to CC. You just can’t count on him for that. No one is looking at Sheets in the same light. He will probably come much cheaper because the risk is more acknowledge (and admittedly great). I would rather sign Sheets as a “hopefully this works out” than sign Burnett as a “we’re counting on this guy”.

      • Steve says:

        “Sheets came down with a tear in a muscle near his elbow right at the end of the season. he *could* be looking at TJS sometime soon. he could also be fine. but we don’t really have any way of knowing that.”

        What you wrote is fair, but lets clear something up. Sheets tore a muscle, Tommy John repairs the elbow LIGAMENT. Two totally different injuries. But as you implied, none of us are Doctors and really have no idea how hurt he is or isn’t.

        Don’t think every elbow strain eventually ends up with TJ. Kazmir strained his elbow at the end of spring training and went on to have a good year. Pettitte has had a bad elbow since 1999 (or thereabouts). And Carl Pavano sneezed and needed his elbow rebuilt. So there are degrees to these things and again, none of us are Doctors.

  6. DaveM says:

    It’s getting to be like it was in the 80′s and early 90′s where players don’t want to play in NYC.

    • steve (different one) says:

      pretty dramatic statement considering not a single player has been traded or signed yet.

    • Old Ranger says:

      Dave…
      I think a lot of the “I don’t want to play in NY”, is BS. I think it is nothing more than a jolt to get more money, after they hear the Yanks are interested in them. They never say things like that until the Yanks show interest…after all, it’s all about the money! Of course, I could be wrong…naw, no chance. 27/09.

    • radnom says:

      Peavy doesn’t want to play on the East Coast. Or in the AL for that matter. You are missing the point of why he doesn’t want to come here.

    • Steve S says:

      Yes because the in the 90′s and in the first part of the century everyone was coming to the yankees at a discount. I know Roger Clemens came here and told the yankees he just wants to win and he doesnt care about his paycheck. I know Jason Giambi really wanted to be a Yankee and the $120M had nothing to do with it. Oh and Johnny Damon, he loved NY so he gave the Yankees a huge discount. Why is everyone

  7. Jose says:

    http://www.dugoutcentral.com/blog/?p=1944 This should have been the final nail on the coffin. Peavy’s mechanics are terrible and he’s a Carl Pavano type waiting to happen. Not to mention, he has terrible (albeit limited) big game history.

    • radnom says:

      Ah ok, some random blogger quoting a source he doesn’t even site is clearly an expert on pitching mechanics and what constitutes an injury risk.

      Peavy would be great here, the point is there is no pitcher in the league that the Yankees would want for that price of money/prospects.

      And can people please stop saying so and so is the “next Carl Pavano”. No one is the next Carl Pavano. You can’t predict a wacky string of injuries like that.

  8. Well, that settles it. Let’s just sign Derek Lowe and Oliver Perez and trade Cano for Aaron Rowand and be done with it.

  9. E-ROC says:

    I can’t wait for that Joel Sherman article that says the Yanks should’ve traded this player or group of players for Peavy. Cashman drops the ball again. I can’t believe the Yanks re-upped with Cashman for three more years.

  10. Steve S says:

    I don’t know how this closes the door on Peavy. Its nothing like paying for the player twice. I think this is probably what everyone expected the yankees would have to extend the no trade and pick up the fifth year option. I know what his agent says, but no one is going to tear up the contract. Even with that option and a sixth year at $22, he is still a bargain.

    All that being said I say focus on CC and then see how the market develops. No point in making a move just for making a moves sake. I say if CC falls off and price for Peavy is too high, then leave it the way it is, dont bother with Burnett, Lowe and Sheets. try and find a one year option at an affordable price and continue developing these kids.

    • Old Ranger says:

      Ah, yes! Don’t forget the players we would have to give up to get him. Players/$$$$/extension/$$$$to get him to drop the NT clause. Very high price for anyone. 27/09.

      • Steve S says:

        No I understand the players/prospect component to the formula but I think that was understood. The distinction between say Peavy and Santana or even trading for CC in the middle of this year is his below market price. Even with an option and an extension he would cost at the most $100M which compared to what CC/Sabathia got and are going to get, is a bargain for a player of his caliber, therefore giving up the prospects is really the only cost because you would be saving significant $.

        Now the issue is whether Peavy can pitch as well in the AL East and since you know Sabathia can and Santana could, then is the $40M-$50 extra (and saving the prospects) worth it.

        • christopher says:

          you are forgetting the no-trade clause. peavy would want to renegotiate a CC like contract to even consider coming here. The team wouldnt give prospects and money for santana and you would be looking at the same thing for Peavy who is not as good as santana

  11. TurnTwo says:

    “It’s a nice idea in theory, but in practice it doesn’t look like the Yanks have the players (they’re willing to part with) and the motivation to get this done.”

    my thought on the issue is that if you sign Sabathia, sweetening the pot to get Peavy makes that much more sense.

    you dont just acquire one ace, you get two.

    you dont just punch the AL in the face, you kick them while they are down, too.

    if you dont get Sabathia, then i wouldnt pay the premium to import Peavy… but if you get Sabathia, then go for Peavy.

    • steve (different one) says:

      this is an interesting theory. i don’t think it’s a bad idea, but i am not sure i would look at it that way.

      to me, if you can sign Sabathia, you should then use the assets that would theoretically be traded for Peavy to make your lineup better/younger.

      of course, i don’t know what players that would involve trading for, so for now i am just talking out of my ass.

      • TurnTwo says:

        thats where it gets foggy… what players are available, what would their cost be… lot of options and info we arent privvy to.

        • Old Ranger says:

          Very true…
          I like your and Steve (DO)s’ idea. Because you are right…we don’t know who is out there to be had. Thanks guys. 27/09.

    • And I see it the opposite way. Getting Sabathia enables us to focus more on taking time and developing the kids, since Sabathia-Wang-Joba and our offensive core are probably enough to keep us in contention while the kids improve and supplement.

      But I see your point. It’s like Colin Powell vs. Donald Rumsfeld: Don’t go in light and hope for a tough victory, go in heavy and assure an easy victory (and thus, limit casualties.) Your idea has merit, and doubling up on Sabathia and Peavy has much, much more merit than doubling up on Sabathia and Burnett (or Sheets, or Lowe, etc. etc.)

      I just don’t yet see how we get peavy without wiping out the farm and turning into the 1990′s Braves (three good pitchers with no offense and no help on the way.)

      • TurnTwo says:

        but the yankees have the payroll and resources to offset a barren farm system in the immediate future, and to invest in draft picks which they will get an abundance of in 2009, and to invest in the Latin American or Japanese player pool, unlike what the Braves have.

        • True, but how long will it take to restock the farm system and then grow them to maturity? 5, 6 years? By the time a new crop of youngsters is ready to contribute, Sabathia and Peavy’s contracts will be up and they’ll be leaving their primes…

          • TurnTwo says:

            not necessarily. depends on who you draft, what positions are taken care of, who is locked into long term deals, etc.

            and i dont even agree with the idea that you’re emptying the farm system, anyway. will you have to trade 4 or 5 guys? yeah.

            but our system is fairly stocked right now, including some high ceiling guys that would be appealing to other organizations.

            • Perhaps. I’m just not keen on giving up Hughes, Cano, and two more quality prospects (like Jackson/Montero/Romine and another pitcher) to get Peavy.

              I know several are down on Cano, but he’s the only under-30 legit major league bat we’ve got. Peavy is excellent and fills a big hole, but losing Cano creates a big hole as well, and the Peavy hole can instead be filled with Sabathia and with our significant internal pitching depth.

              Not to mention Peavy’s contract obligations and lack of AL pedigree. I think it’s intriguing, but I’d rather just go all in on CC and keep our cost-controlled, low-risk high-reward prospects.

    • Reggie C. says:

      What about a trade for Matt Cain? SF has shopped him in the past and they’ll likely do it again. NoMass articulated an argument for a Cano–Cain trade.

      Imagine a rotation of: CC-Wang-Cain-Pettitte-Joba
      – Hughes can make several “remember-me” starts in ’09, while really getting that his pitches into the “plus” and “consistent” description.

      – Cain is on the upswing and i think a good return on Cano.

      • TurnTwo says:

        i dont dislike Matt Cain, i just dont think he’s available.

        but if you can sign Sabathia, and get a Matt Cain-type, sure… same premise, but Cain makes even that much more sense because comparatively speaking, he’ll cost even less in salary for the next 5 years than Peavy will, and could poss give you fairly equivalent numbers.

        and noone knows if a Cano for Cain swap would be good enough in the eyes of either organization.

        • Reggie C. says:

          it wouldn’t just be a 1-1 swap but Cano would be the best player SF would receive. like NoMaas said, IPK and Miranda do not hold up this trade.

          • TurnTwo says:

            nor do i think IPK and Miranda really sweeten the pot.

            • Joseph P. says:

              Which is why I think the “Kennedy is done in pinstripes” notion is a bit off-base. What you’d get in return for IPK, or his value as a throw-in, doesn’t equal what he could potentially do on the mound for the team.

            • Reggie C. says:

              The consensus on Kennedy as a back-of-the-rotation type still hasn’t fallen apart. Its just that if we’re talking about doubling up on front-line types (CC + x), then we’re gonna have to make decisions on several “near-ready” names. There simply isn’t enough room for Kennedy, Aceves, Geise, Horne, etc..

              Of that group, Kennedy is still the best. And for a realistic shot at acquiring a Matt Cain, i think parting with Kennedy makes sense. Of course, SF may just want a bigger haul of hitters, in which case Kelvin DeLeon might interest the Giants.

  12. Bo says:

    Peavy’s agent should be fired for letting him take that offer from SD last yr.

    He had his chance to be a FA and turned it down.

    • SWB says:

      The only person that would hurt would be Peavy. That agent would still get paid every penny he is owed and Peavy would have to hire another agent

  13. [...] Bounce: River Ave Blues Joe, over at RAB, has a solid writeup on Jake Peavy. Basically, Peavy’s agent is looking at potential trades as if Peavy was actually a free [...]

  14. DCR says:

    Yeah if they wouldn’t do this for Santana, a better pitcher, I don’t know why they would do it for Peavy.

    • christopher says:

      they wont – its a total pipe dream to even think it. peavy will hld them over the coals for a new contract to waive his no trade. the pavano comparison was unfair, but i see a lot of pedro martinez in peavy – small body generating a lot of power – those pitchers dont have lasting power – plus there is the issue of giving up players which the yankees have in recent years shown that they will not do

  15. BTW, in the interest of “Hot Stove News”, the Angels are exercising the options on Lackey and Vlad but not not on Garrett Anderson, making him a free agent. I doubt Anderson does anything other than resign at a discount or retire, but at least this confirms some speculation about the Angels 2009 roster.

    Not sure if this means they do or don’t do hard for Tex. If they lose Tex, that team becomes significantly weaker.

  16. Mason says:

    I totally agree with you on this one. Peavy is basically the Santana of 2008, If he damands a contract extension. Lets just go after Sabathia because money is easier to replace than young talent.

  17. Jacob says:

    What about a deal of Cano, Coke, and Kennedy for Cain? Coke’s value is as high as it will probably ever be and I agree that an NL team could still have some interest in Kennedy. Would SF want another hitter, maybe Miranda, or does there need to be a better deal entirely for Cain?

    IMO…A rotation of Cain, CC, Wang, Joba, Pettite is worth giving up Cano, and I really like him. I guess it just depends on how high SF feels Cano’s value is.

  18. dave says:

    I still think that the answer this off-season is one player on the offensive side–which is TExeira. Getting him allows Giambi and Abreu to allow to walk away at FA. Move Nady to right, Damon in left, Matsui at DH, Gardner in CF–then you have options for Austin JAckson moving up in 2010 when Damon and Matsui are done.

    For starters, Burnett makes the most sense if Sabathia doesn’t want to put his bat in his closet. Burnett is proven in the AL East with relative success against the BoSox. A rotation of Wang, Burnett, Chamberlain, Pettitte and Acieves/Hughes is pretty solid. If Cain is available, then trading Cano makes sense especially if Orlando Hudson is able to be signed. You also have the option of looking at JEter moving to 2B after next season too.

    Biggest question mark is Posada. If he can’t catch, big problems not having his bat in the lineup. Even with all of the injuries and pitching issues in the rotation this year, I can’t beleive that if the Yanks had Wang, Posada and Matsui healthy this year, they wouldn’t have been at least 6 games better (which would have put them in the playoffs

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