Late-nite rumors

November 6, 2008 by Benjamin Kabak 71 Comments

Via MLBTR comes a rumor about Hideki from Yahoo’s Tim Brown:

One source mentioned a potential three-way deal that would send outfielder Hideki Matsui from the New York Yankees to the Seattle Mariners for a pitching prospect, perhaps Ryan Rowland-Smith. The Yankees would package the prospect with second baseman Robinson Cano and another young player to the Rockies for Matt Holliday.

The Mariners wouldn’t trade Ryan Rowland-Smith for Matsui. The Yankees aren’t going to try to acquire Holliday unless they miss out on Teixeira. Have fun with this one, but don’t take it seriously at all. By the way, that other young player in the Rockies’ half of the day would probably be Phil Hughes.

Chip

I thought the same thing for that. If the Yankees could get Rowland-Smith for Matsui, Cashman would have to do everything he could not to laugh at the Mariners. I mean if they could get that kind of return on Matsui, why not just keep Rowland-Smith or turn him around in a Peavy trade? I guess I just don’t see everybody’s obsession with Holliday. He’s not going to have much success once he moves from that ballpark
- steve (different one)
  
  I guess I just don’t see everybody’s obsession with Holliday. I guess I just don’t see everybody’s obsession with Holliday. He’s not going to have much success once he moves from that ballpark
  
  well, the obsession is that Holliday is an excellent player, and many people don’t think this statement “I guess I just don’t see everybody’s obsession with Holliday. He’s not going to have much success once he moves from that ballpark” is true at all.
  
  Holliday would be a fantastic addition to the Yankees.
  
  i don’t know what he would cost, but if the Yankees could creatively find a way to bring him to NY without emptying their system, that would be awesome.
  - Chris
    
    Holliday’s road numbers last year were equal to Nady’s.
    
    Holliday on the Road: .308/.405/.486/.891
    Nady on the Road: .314/.373/.528/.901
    
    If you go back through 2005, it tells a similar story.
    - steve (different one)
      
      i am not sure what you are arguing. both of those lines are excellent.
      - Chris
        
        The point is that he’s no better than Nady, and we should give up less for Holliday because we’re not getting a good lefty reliever as well.
  - http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones
    
    Holliday would be a fantastic addition to the Yankees.
    
    You’re right.
    
    i don’t know what he would cost…
    
    Probably Robinson Cano at a minimum, which is where acquiring Holliday ceases to be a smart idea.
    
    …but if the Yankees could creatively find a way to bring him to NY without emptying their system…
    
    They can’t.
    
    that would be awesome.
    
    Just like me having a threeway with Esther Baxter and Lauren London. That also would be totally awesome. Neither of those things are happening.
Brian

I G wa wa, just package Igawa
- http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones
  
  I still think Brian Cashman should try to convince Kei Igawa to legally change his name to Ryu Hadoken, have him grow a fumanchu, give him some HGH, pretend he’s someone else, and put him in Trenton to start the year.
  
  Maybe we can convince some other GM that he’s a 22 year old reclamation project we found who learned a curve over the winter and now all of a sudden is worth flipping a prospect for.
Reggie C.

Don’t know why we’d trade Mats. The bat is still very solid. Unless the Yanks dont’ expect him to enter the season healthy, I can’t see why Mats doesn’t slug at least .450. Its an expiring contract so its a 1 year investment on a player that i believe is a good bet to rebound with a productive year at the plate.
Ivan

This holds very little water period. First off it seems the outfield is set with Damon at LF, Gardner/Melky at CF and Nady at RF. Barring something out of the ordinary, that’s the yankee outfield for 09.

Plus, why trade talent for Holliday when you could just sign the guy after 09 season.

To be honest, I wouldn’t trade Cano and or Hughes for Holliday.
- JD
  
  Outfield is not set. Numerous reports and sources say the Yankees have been looking for a centerfielder. You might think the outfield is set but that doesn’t mean that the Yankees do.
  - Bo
    
    I kind of doubt they go into the season with Gardner in CF unless they get Tex and 2 SP’s off the FA market.
Ivan

Plus, here’s the problem, if that trade went down, then chances are Damon becomes your DH. Damon doesn’t have enough bat for the DH, and Damon is a better fielder than Holliday at LF.

When you add all the factors together, this is just something to get some unnecessary buzz and makes little sense.
- steve (different one)
  
  why wouldn’t Damon be the CFer? at least part time.
  
  a 3 way job share with Posada, Damon, and Gardner.
  
  not saying this is going to happen, but if the Yankees can use Matsui to get a piece to land Holliday, that would be great. i wouldn’t trade BOTH Hughes and Cano to get Holliday, but this is still a good approach.
Ricochet

That trade makes no sense even and I like Matt Holliday and while he would make the Yankees OF younger and much more athletic he’s not going to produce much more HR or RBI’s than Matsui will and on top of that Cano would part of the deal so the Yankees are more or less trading 50 HR’s for 25 HR’s?

Just doesn’t make sense to me.

BTW, I’ve heard that the Yankees are talking about a massive multiple team trade and that it would be to acquire the Dodgers Kemp and Martin.
- Marcus
  
  First off, Cano and Matsui next year will in no way combine for 50 HR’s. Unless Matsui can hit 20 homers in 2 months, because that’s about how much playing time he’ll probably get with his bum knee. And Cano isn’t a home run hitter.
  - Chris
    
    Matsui doesn’t have a bum knee. He has two surgically repaired knees.
    - http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones
      
      He has two surgically repaired bum knees.
      
      Fixed.
Marcus

The trade doesn’t make any sense.

Plus, trading away a young stud second basemen in any scenario makes no sense. He’s a rare asset for this team and he should retire a Yankee.

I will never forgive Cashman if he deals Cano.
- Bo
  
  A little early on the “retire as a Yankee” thing for Cano.
  - http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones
    
    Perhaps it is, but the fact remains that:
    Hideki Matsui + Robinson Cano + “another young player” >>> Matt Holliday
emac2

I think we could end up with Holiday for a package of pitchers that doesn’t include Hughes.

Bruney could close for them.

Kennedy and Aceves could probably start in the NL west.

shoot – Igawa could probably start in the NL west
- Mike Pop
  
  I would love to get Holliday for Bruney/IPK/Aceves/Igawa but unfortunately I dont think that is going to happen
  - steve (different one)
    
    Bruney, Kennedy, Aceves for Matt Holliday?
    
    oh boy.
- http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones
  
  I think we could end up with Holiday for a package of pitchers that doesn’t include Hughes. Bruney could close for them. Kennedy and Aceves could probably start in the NL west. shoot – Igawa could probably start in the NL west.
  
  All of this is batshit crazy.
Steve

“that other young player in the Rockies’ half of the day would probably be Phil Hughes.”

Really? For one year of Matt Holiday? Who is represented by Scott Boras and guaranteed to go free agent.

The biggest mistake many people (usually media types) make in evaluating trades is looking at it in purely Baseball terms and dont consider the contract. When in actuality, the contract is as big a factor as the player is, if not bigger. He’s signed at good money ($13.5M) so its not like you’re getting him dirt cheap. He’s probably saving you about $5-7 mil off what he would get on the open market.

If Robbie Cano maintains the production he has shown over the first few years of his career, he would likely get around 15 mil per in today’s market. He’s sign for 9 for the next 3 years.

That’s +18mil there.

If Phil Hughes was to pitch like an average MLB starter who would earn at least 11-12 mil on the open market, and his upside is actually much higher. He has another 5years until free agency, so they control him till then. He’ll earn little until he hits arby, then will get some nice pay raises. Figure he earns 500K, 500K, 4 mil, 6 mil, 8 mil. That’s 19 mil total, and again on the open market he would earn 55-60 mil over that time frame.

That’s +40 mil there

It really all comes down to money. The level of a Baseball player Holliday is can be priced out and to give up Hughes AND Cano would be paying net 58 mil for net 6 mil.

BTW-We didn’t even consider Ryan Roland Smith. Which would make these numbers even more absurd.
- steve (different one)
  
  Really? For one year of Matt Holiday? Who is represented by Scott Boras and guaranteed to go free agent
  
  i am working under the assumption that any Holliday trade would come with a contract extension. Boras almost always takes his players to free agency, but he does that to try to start a bidding war with the big spenders. here, he’d be dealing with the Yankees. they are going to show Holliday big bucks.
  - pat
    
    IF a trade like that were to happen im sure cash would need a 48 or 72 hr negotiating window to hammer out a contract extension. We would have had sabathia before the trade deadline but the indians balked at the extension window.
    - Chris
      
      but the contract extension would be at market rates. You’re getting one year of Holliday plus the pleasure of negotiating a long term contract one year earlier than you otherwise would.
      - steve (different one)
        
        unless, of course, someone else trades for him and signs him to an extension.
        
        Holliday is one of the best players on the 2009 FA market.
        
        if the Yankees could get him now, they should look into it.
        
        again, i am not saying you empty the farm for him. but perhaps there is a creative way to use Damon or Matsui (i am not saying there is or isn’t) to create an acceptable package.
        
        http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones
        
        Holliday is one of the best players on the 2009 FA market.
        
        I think you’re forgetting Andruw Jones.
    - Steve
      
      Scott Boras doesn’t do extensions, and its not even debatable.
      
      He goes to market, period. If you want an extension, you don’t hire Boras in the first place.
- Larry
  
  The Daily News stirred the Peavy discussions with a proposal centered around Hughes, AJax, etc. Worth pursuing, no? Different than the Santana deal. CC and Peavy would be sweet.
  - Steve
    
    No, the team would be better off signing a FA like Burnett and keeping the depth in the farm for the inevitable injuries. Also, Peavy and Burnett are VERY similar pitchers. Burnett’s career ERA+ is 111 and Peavy’s is 121.
    
    The difference between Peavy and Burnett isn’t worth Hughes/A-Jax/IPK. Plus, you may need that depth for a mid season trade next year. If I’m the GM, its a very easy decision to pass on Peavy and sign Burnett.
Chris

Hughes + Cano is way way way too much to give up for one year of Holliday. Look at the Jason Bay deal. The Red Sox gave up a disgruntled outfielder they were desperate to move, a backup outfielder and a crappy reliever for 1+ years of Bay. Also look at the Nady trade – the Yankees gave up a struggling prospect a couple years away from the majors, plus assorted spare parts for Nady and Marte. Neither of these deals are close to Hughes + Cano + someone else.
- Steve
  
  This is the dance us fans do every winter. Players become available, columnists and talk show hosts tell us they will cost the moon, and what they actually end up being traded for is far less than the so-called “experts” in the media told us all would be the price. It gets old.
- steve (different one)
  
  ok, but just because Manny was “disgruntled” doesn’t change the fact that he is one of the greatest hitters of all time.
  
  yes, they wanted to trade him, but the Sox still gave up the best player in the deal.
  
  also, they had to pay his salary and throw in 2 more prospects.
  
  don’t get me wrong, under the circumstances, it was a very good trade for them. but it was a very unique scenario that doesn’t really make a good comparison for this situation.
  - Chris
    
    so they gave up 2 months of Manny (I agree that he was the best player in the deal) plus two spare parts for 1 year 2 months of a play a notch below Manny. They also got rid of the media circus surrounding Manny. That’s still a far cry from a cost controlled 2B and potential ace starter, both of whom are years away from FA.
    - steve (different one)
      
      That’s still a far cry from a cost controlled 2B and potential ace starter, both of whom are years away from FA.
      
      no, i agree with you there.
      
      i was just saying i don’t think that trade is a great comparison b/c of unique circumstances.
- Reggie C.
  
  Would you consider the deal conditioned on Holiday signing an extension in a 3-day window?
  
  What kind of extension is Holiday looking for?
Steve

Joel Sherman has a potential Cameron-Cabrera deal.

” Earlier this week the Brewers picked up the $10 million 2009 option on Cameron. Nevertheless, Milwaukee believes its lineup is too right-handed plus it needs pitching. Cabrera’s numbers as a lefty were not great (.267 with a .361 slugging percentage), but were far better than his stats as a righty. The Yanks New York Yankees also have talked to several teams about Wilson Betemit Wilson Betemit , another switch-hitter like Cabrera who is superior from the left side.

Cabrera, Betemit and a pitcher is probably a package – combined with the savings Milwaukee would receive from moving Cameron’s contract – that the Yanks would be willing to move for Cameron.”

http://www.nypost.com/seven/11062008/sports/yankees/yanks_eye_cameron__could_move_cabrera_137265.htm

At 10 mil, Cammy is probably a bit overpriced. He’s pretty much a platoon player at this point of his career, though he’s coming off a good season. But to give up Melky (who’s MLB future is doubtful) is basically giving up nothing. Betemit has a somewhat useful bat but no position in the field that he can play well. The pitcher would have to be a low level and/or low ceiling guy. You’re not giving up much for a 36 year old Cameron.

Not crazy.
- steve (different one)
  
  interesting.
  
  is Melky out of options? if so, they basically have to trade him this winter.
  - Ed
    
    Melky was optioned in 2005, 2006, and 2008, so he should be out of options.
  - Bruno
    
    They don’t HAVE to. He could/should come off the bench.
- http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones
  
  But Steve, as you said yourself, giving them Cabrera, Betemit, and a non-prospect pitcher is like giving them nothing… so why would they do it? There’s bound to be something better out there.
  
  I acknowledge that the Brewers probably don’t want/have room for Cameron at 10M, and thus they’d move him for next to nothing, but don’t you think somebody else out there among the othe 28 team would give them a package better than Melky, Betemit, and Lance Pendelton?
  
  I’m intrigued, but not holding my breath.
  - Steve
    
    I think they were hoping that picking up Cammy’s option they would have a better shot at signing CC (who is close w/Cammy). But now they see the Yanks are going to blow away the field, CC’s desire to ‘stay in the NL’ isn’t going to be a big factor for him, and so they’re throwing in the towel and looking to deal Cammy.
    
    All just speculation on my part, but based on stuff that’s been reported everywhere and just piecing it together.
The Scout

I agree that we should not take most of the rumored deals seriously. At best, they represent one side’s demands in a deal, often put out there to push up the offer price from other teams interested in the same player(s). Most GMs would not be suckered into such trades.

On the other hand, some of the comments here indicate a common habit on this site of overrating young Yankee organization talent. You are welcome to your opinions about Hughes, Kennedy, Jackson, et al. But other teams may not share your enthusiasm for many of our prospects. If Cashman thinks as you do, he will find few takers. I expect him to be more realistic about the likely ceiling of players in organization. Other teams will not trade to the Yankees players such as Holiday, Kemp, Martin, etc., for pocket lint. Aim for a little objectivity, please. Put yourself in the shoes of the other GM and ask WHY he would deal a star for has-beens and never-will-bes. My rule of thumb: any trade for significant talent that proposes Kei Igawa, Eric Duncan, or Shelly Duncan (just to name a few of the usual suspects) is a non-starter.
- pat
  
  u might as well beat your head against the wall instead of asking for objective trade proposals
  - Bo
    
    You mean teams don’t want Igawa, Eric Duncan and Shelly Duncan for an all star???
    - Chris
      
      Honestly, you could probably get Varitek for that package…
- Steve
  
  “I agree that we should not take most of the rumored deals seriously. At best, they represent one side’s demands in a deal”
  
  YES! That’s a REALLY important thing to remember, that most proposals that get leaked come from one side or the other, and often represent their own wish list or are an attempt by the GM to get other teams to jump in and bid more.
  
  Think about it, if you’re looking to trade FOR a player, you really don’t want other teams to know what you’re offering. But if YOU’RE the GM who is the one trading the player, you leak bids like crazy (real or not) to get the price up as high as possible.
  
  It’s in your interest to leak proposals if you’re the one trading a player, not so much if you’re one of the bidders.
THU

No way they get a package of Cano, Hughes and RWS. There’s absolutely no way. I heard it was going to cost Cano, Hughes and Kennedy to get Johan. When Hughes and Kennedy were liked throughout the league. Look what the Twins got for him, trash.
- http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones
  
  The Santana trade is an outlier, not an example of the norm. The Twins overplayed their hand and charged AL teams a premium. They left better offers on the table, until they were withdrawn, and then panicked and accepted the Mets’ pu-pu platter.
  
  It would not be shocking at all to see the Rockies get significantly more for Holliday than what the Twins got for Santana.
Yank Crank 20

I’m really trying my best not to get invested in any kind of rumor that doesn’t involve throwing lots of money at either CC or Tex. That includes all of these rumors about Lowe, Peavy, Swisher, Hudson and others. Most of it is all just a bunch of crap.
Blackdragon905

i dont know too much on roland-smith, can somebody give me a scouting report? Thanks!
Bruno

Has EVERYONE forgotten Cashman’s desire to continue developing the farm? To get younger and more athletic?
- steve (different one)
  
  right, but Matt Holliday is only 28.
  
  this isn’t the same thing as trading prospects for 39 year old Randy Johnson.
  
  if you ARE going to trade prospects, this is exactly the type of player you should be looking at. he’s young, he rakes, AND he plays defense.
  
  you have to balance the two approaches.
  
  think of it like trading for O’Neill. you’d have RF (or LF) set for the next 5-6 years. O’Neill was 30 when he came to the Yankees, Tino was 28.
  - Chris
    
    but why trade for him when you could just sign him next year?
    - steve (different one)
      
      because someone else might beat you to it.
      - http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones
        
        Johan Santana says hello.
        
        GIGANTIC DISCLAIMER: I am not attempting to rehash the Great Johan Santana Trade Debate™, nor am I endorsing trading for Matt Holliday (in fact, I’m against it.)
        
        I’m simply agreeing with Steve that it’s foolish to assume that we can simply wait for Impending Free Agent Star Player X to play out his contract and hit free agency, because many of our competitors can and will quickly trade for said player and lock him up before he ever hits the market. Which is why, in the rare instances where a superstar does hit the market, we should pounce on the opportunity, so that we’re not constantly forced to trade valuable young talent to acquire good players still under contract to another club.
        
        *cough*Sabathia*cough*
        *cough*Teixeira*cough*
        *cough*Ramirez*cough*
    - Bruno
      
      We COULD sign him next year, unless someone else trades for and extends him before that…
  - Bruno
    
    Honestly, I think if we land Tex that that’s all the hitting we need to add. Reuniting Tex and A-Rod back to back would quite the duo once again.
    
    Would Melky + IPK land a C from Texas?? DH Posada, platoon Molina with Texas C, Matsui off the bench.
    - http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones
      
      Would Melky + IPK land a C from Texas??
      
      NO
radnom

By the way, that other young player in the Rockies’ half of the day would probably be Phil Hughes.

Cano, Hughes, and Rowland-Smith for one year of Holliday?

Be serious now. Cano in this deal means Hughes is not.
A.D.

If you could bamboozle the Mariners for a Matsui – Roland-Smith trade, just stop right there, there’s no reason to flip him, you’ve already gotten a redic deal
mike

DH – Damon
SS – Jeter
3B – ARod
1B – Tex
LF – Holiday
C – Posada
RF – Nady
2B – Cano
CF – Cameron / Jackson

SP’s
CC
Wang
Burnett
Pettite
Hughes

RP
Mo
Joba
Edwar
Coke
Mitre
Robertson

Sign
Pettite 2yrs
CC 5 yrs
Tex 5 yrs
Burnett 4 yrs

Trades
Holiday + Tavares (Bench guy – remeber Homer Bush *speed on the bench*)
for
Kennedy, Avcevas, Gardner, Bruney

Cameron for Melky + low level prospect
- http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones
  
  This comment is literally dripping with insanity. My keyboard is now sticky because of it.
  - Jack
    
    That’s not insanity.
    - http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones
      
      Touché.
mike

Well instead of starting Hughes why dont we trade for Peavy too and then maybe amke a run at Zambrano

CC
Peavy
Zambrano
Wang
Pettite

There you go now thats more inasinty right there!!!
scott boras

Trade Arod to whoever will take him…

Lets start there