Archive for Irresponsible Rumormongering

The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is December 12, just a few weeks away. The Yankees will have decisions to make on a few players, including Melky Cabrera, Brian Bruney, Chad Gaudin, and Sergio Mitre. Chances are the Yankees will offer arbitration to all four, though I still think there’s a chance they’ll non-tender Bruney. The biggest decision they face, though, is on Chien-Ming Wang. The Taiwanese righty might have already thrown his last pitch in pinstripes.

We learn this morning, via MLBTR, that Wang would consider pitching for the Dodgers. Really, he’ll probably consider pitching for all 30 teams, but the Dodgers have a comfort factor. Wang, always described as shy, would have not only two familiar coaches in Joe Torre and Larry Bowa (Don Mattingly, too), but he’d also have former schoolmate Hong-Chih Kuo. In picking his 2010 team, that will probably play a part for Wang.

Just because there’s a connection, of course, doesn’t mean that Wang is ready to don Dodger blue. If the Yankees do non-tender him, and the prevailing opinion in the NYC media is that they will, Wang and his agent Alan Nero will seek the best possible deal. Familiarity might help in that regard, making the Dodgers a strong possibility. And there’s no ruling out Wang re-signing with New York.

I’ve read opinions that the Yankees have mistreated Wang, though I don’t exactly buy that. They didn’t offer him a long-term deal, instead taking him to arbitration over $600,000 in 2008. It was a wise move by the Yankees. Wang, as we know, had two shoulder injuries before 2008, and the Yankees were proceeding with caution. The team and player then acted quickly last off-season, signing a one-year, $5 million deal before Christmas. Wang’s season-ending injury certainly had something to do with that.

It’s hard to see signs of disrespect in that. Not every pitcher gets a long-term deal from his original club. Some teams prefer to take that route, as the Giants did with Matt Cain. Others like to proceed with caution, especially with pitchers who have an injury history. Such has been the Yankees’ dealing with Wang. Now they’ll have another set of negotiations with Wang, presumably over a lesser contract that will bring him back for 2010.

Most of us, I think, would like to see Chien-Ming Wang back in pinstripes next season. We’ve seen him at his best, and if he can return to that level, or something near it, he can fortify the Yankees’ rotation mid-season. The Yankees have many factors to weigh in this decision, including the cost of keeping Wang around, weighed against the risk that he’ll fail. It’s doubtful Wang makes more than $6 million next season in arbitration, and my guess is that if the Yankees do tender him a contract that they’ll work out a one-year deal before the February arbitration hearings.

I think the Yankees have little to lose by offering Wang arbitration. That ensures that if he does return to form, it will be to the Yankees’ benefit. It’s essentially a $6 million bet on his health, though, and without his medicals in hand it’s impossible to make that decision. The Yankees have seen them, or else will see them. I trust they’ll make the right call.

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Apropos of our early discussion on Nick Swisher’s availability comes one of the more tenuous and sketchier bits of Hot Stove reporting we’ll see all year. In what may or may not qualify as something worth publishing on FoxSports.com, Ken Rosenthal tells us that the Yankees’ pitching plans are still unclear. According to Rosenthal, the Yankees have not yet decided if the bullpen or rotation will undergo an off-season boost. Furthermore, the team may or may not be interested in some free agents. First, “one rival executive” says the Yanks are interested in both Rafael Soriano (RHP) and Mike Gonzalez (LHP), but “another source with knowledge of the Yankees’ thinking” believes the team will fill bullpen holes from within. The two strategies are, by the way, not mutually exclusive.

Anyway, the big problem with this type of reporting is that it does not engender trust in any of the people involved. Rosenthal seemingly puts his own theory — that Soriano or Gonzalez or both would do the Yankees some good — into the mouths of two unnamed baseball sources. Since the free agency frenzy does not commence until midnight tonight, nothing has happened, and it’s starting to show.

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The Internet can be a dangerous place during the Hot Stove League. Anyone with a computer and an idea can start a rumor, and it’s tough to know what information is reliable and accurate and what is not. Even established reporters — Jon Heyman comes to mind — tend to tie teams to many available big names, and we’re left trying to sort out noise from reality.

Late last night, we came upon an update on Twitter from someone who calls herself TheSportsDiva23 and with the initials SW. This person says she covers the Yankees but cannot reveal her name. After an extensive look back through her 2400 updates, we felt comfortable enough mentioning this update not so much to report it as a bona fide rumor but to use it as a starting point for a discussion on Derek Jeter.

First, the rumors: According to two posts on this person’s Twitter timeline (1, 2), the Yankees may be gearing up to offer Derek Jeter a three-year deal worth $60 million. Supposedly, this deal would be wrapped up before Thanksgiving.

We don’t know if this deal would supplant the final year of Jeter’s current contract and extend him for two more seasons at $20 million per. We don’t know if this deal would be a three-year extension to carry Jeter through 2013, his age 39 season. We don’t, in fact, know if we should even trust this source at all.

So then why even mention it all, regular readers of RAB might wonder. After all, we tend to shy away from rumors we don’t believe have legs. Now, this anonymous person’s claim may not have legs, but to extend Derek Jeter is a question we’ve pondered this season. In early September, we noted that the Yanks planned to take care of Jeter but probably wouldn’t — and shouldn’t — extend him until after his contract runs out.

I still believe that the Yanks should wait until after next year to extend Derek Jeter. After all, as a 35-year-old short stop — the oldest player to win a World Series at that position in over half a century — Jeter is ripe for more money than he deserves. He just set the Yanks’ career hits record, and he should place in the top five in the AL MVP voting. Jeter’s agent should want to sign that extension now while the Yanks should want to wait a year.

But let’s say the Yanks would rather not allow their captain to touch free agency and don’t want a lame duck season swirling over their heads. Is a $60 million offer that covers the 2010-2012 period reasonable? For Jeter, those seasons are going to be his ages 36-38 years, but he probably won’t readily move off of short stop. Whether that is a liability or a benefit for the Yanks will depend entirely on Derek’s offense prowess.

Since 2006, Derek has earned a per annum salary of over $20 million. The Yanks, in fact, have doled out approximately $85.4 million over the last four seasons to their captain while getting back $88.8 million in production, according to Fangraphs. To continue to pay him a lofty salary would be to pay him for services rendered and not, at this point in his career, expected return and value. Considering who he is, the Yanks can get away with overpaying Jeter if it comes to it.

And so we’re left with a rumor from an unnamed source we are led to believe is a Twitter account of someone close to the Yankees. If it’s real, indications suggested that it could be Suzyn Waldman; if it’s fake, well, that’s quite an undertaking. Either way, we can still consider if the franchise should extend Jeter now or wait until after next year.

In the end, I take the rumor with a giant grain of salt and assume, until we start to hear otherwise, that it has no legs. But those in charge of the Yankees are probably giving some thought to re-upping with Derek Jeter now. His asking price might be too high, but he’s going to get overpaid no matter what. Better, perhaps, to get it over with.

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Nov
12

Rumor du Jour: Roy Halladay

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak | Comments (71)

That Jon Heyman, he just loves tying every big-name pitcher to the Yanks. Today’s rumor of the day from Heyman suggests that the Yanks will inquire about Roy Halladay. The Blue Jays’ was infamously not traded this past July, and that non-move was the straw that broke the proverbial camel’s back as J.P. Ricciardi was fired by season’s end. Unless Halladay can be gotten for cheap, the Yanks probably won’t acquire him for the same reason the team didn’t trade for Johan Santana: Halladay will be a free agent after 2010, and the team will not pay for him in both prospects and cash. The career Blue Jay turns 33 in May.

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The outfield is the Yankees’ biggest area of concern this off-season, and to that end Mike examined the free agent class yesterday. There are some attractive names on there, but there’s nothing that makes me think, “That’s the guy I want roaming the outfield for the Yanks in the future. Matt Holliday is the closest in that regard, but that would require a big commitment. Even if the Yanks are thinking of Holliday, they should explore alternatives first.

In an item posted barely an hour ago, Joel Sherman reports that the Tigers have made center fielder Curtis Granderson available. He speculates that the Yankees will be interested, and I can’t blame them. Granderson is a high quality player that can help shore up the Yankees outfield. That is, if his 2009 season isn’t a window into his future production.

Granderson made his mark in 2007, his second full season in the majors, when he posted a triple slash .302/.361/.552, including 23 home runs and 23 triples. That’s the kind of production any team would love in center field, and if Granderson kept it up it’s unlikely that the Tigers would trade him. Unfortunately, his production has dropped in each of the past two years, dipping to .249/.327/.453 in 2009. But does that necessarily detract from Granderson’s trade value?

It seems that for the Tigers, trading Granderson would be more about future payroll commitments than 2010. He’s owed just $5.5 million next year, but his salary climbs after that, as he’ll earn $8.25 million in 2011 and $10 million in 2012, with a $13 million club option ($2 million buyout) for 2013. That seems like a pretty team friendly deal, but with Granderson’s production dropping over the last two years the Tigers might want to avoid that gamble.

Granderson’s BABIP stands out as a reason for his dip in production. After posting marks of .362 in 2007 and .317 in 2008, he fell all the way to .276 in 2009. I’m not here to chalk this up to luck and say that he’s poised to rebound. Instead, let’s take look at some other numbers that might explain the dip. Looking at his batted ball data, you can’t help but notice one big change from 2008 to 2009. Granderson’s ground ball rate dropped dramatically. He was at 34 percent in 2007 and then saw that rise to 40 percent in 2008. In 2009 it fell all the way to 29.5 percent. That meant an increase in fly ball percentage, to almost 50 percent. Since ground balls go for hits more frequently than fly balls, Granderson’s lower BABIP, and therefore lower batting average, is easily explainable.

Did Granderson change his swing between 2008 and 2009? That might be the case. Two factors suggest this. First, the shift from ground balls to fly balls. Second, an increase in home runs and infield fly balls. Granderson hit 30 home runs in 2009, eight more than in 2008 and seven more than during his previous high in 2007. His infield fly percentage rose from 5 percent in 2008 to 13 percent in 2009. So he hit a lot more fly balls, particularly fly balls that are very easy to catch.

If it’s a change in swings, it clearly didn’t work. Granderson might have hit more home runs, but he maintained the same level of home runs per fly balls in 2009 as he had in 2008. In other words, if he goes back to what worked in 2008, he could again be a viable option. With the help of Kevin Long, I’m sure Granderson could make the transition and return to being a productive player.

(And, just for Mike, I know he had a .484 OPS against lefties last year, but again, that seems like an approach thing. He was much better in previous years.)

The question is of just how productive he’ll be in 2010 and beyond. He’ll be 29 for the 2010 season, so a decline isn’t expected. Assuming Long can help him revert to his old form, then, what can we expect? I think it will be a lot closer to his 2008 production than 2007. Again, in 2007 he had a ridiculous BABIP, .362. It appears that this was the result of many fly balls dropping in for hits. He had a 44.8 percent fly ball rate that year, which usually signals a lower average. Granderson hit fewer fly balls in 2008, which helped his average even when his BABIP dropped to .317. That seems about normal: .317 BABIP for a .280 batting average.

Granderson is reputedly a good fielder in center, and UZR agrees. He’s had one negative year in the past four according to UZR, and is still positive overall. His negative value, unfortunately, came in 2008, the same year we’d like to think Granderson can repeat in 2010. Still, even with a -9.4 UZR, hew as still a 3.8 WAR player, which is a quality figure from center field. For comparison, Melky Cabrera, with a positive UZR in 2009, was a 1.6 WAR player.

Even with Granderson, the Yankees would probably still have outfield issues in 2010. Even though we’re not ones to throw out trade proposals, I assume the Tigers would require Austin Jackson in any possible deal. Granderson would be a fine replacement in center should the Yankees bring back Johnny Damon (or bring in Holliday), but he could also play alongside Melky for a year until the Yankees figure out what they’re going to do with left field.

All of this, of course, is contingent on Granderson recovering from a poor 2009. How much are the Yankees willing to gamble on that? How much on top of Jackson would they have to surrender? We don’t know the answers, but we’ll definitely keep up with this situation to see where the Yanks stand.

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We’ll have more on this one as the Hot Stove heats up, but early Yankee word out of the GM Meetings yesterday come to us from Jon Heyman. The Sports Illustrated scribe says the Yankees plan to look at John Lackey as their big free agent acquisition. Reports Heyman, “The Yankees aren’t expected to be as aggressive this winter on the free market as last offseason and they haven’t firmed up all their plans as yet, but one league source said of Lackey, ‘He’s definitely on their radar.’ Word is that the Yankees probably will be willing to repeat A.J. Burnett’s $82.5 million, five-year contract for Lackey.” The Angels’ ace supposedly wants more than Burnett got. For what it’s worth, Tim Dierkes at MLBTR sees Lackey landing with the Yanks.

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Via MLBTR, Jon Heyman mentions that the Yankees “were believed willing to go for two years and $16 million” for Johnny Damon, but that was before the postseason. Damon’s recent heroics surely have bumped up his price just a bit. Regardless, two guaranteed years for Damon is nuts because just a week or so ago he looked fried amidst a two-month long slump. The Yanks would be wise to limit their offer to one guaranteed year, with an option, to not only reduce risk but to maintain roster flexibility beyond 2010.

Two years at $8M per for Johnny D? That one doesn’t pass the sniff test.

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Oct
21

More Heyman, more Holliday

Posted by: Mike Axisa | Comments (114)

The Yankees are still chasing their 27th World Championship, but that won’t stop the hot stove from warming up. After hearing that Matt Holliday’s top choice is the Yanks over the weekend, today we fhear rom a Yankee official – via Jon Heyman – that “I’m not absolutely positive we’re going to go for (Holliday).” Me? Well I’m not “absolutely positive” they should go for Holliday either. He’ll be too damn expensive, and there are just too many concerns about his ability to thrive in the American League. It’s a costly gamble, but the Yanks surely could afford to take it.

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As we recover from the collective hangover brought on by the Yanks’ epic Game 2 victory, the rumor mill is a-tilt today. The rumor-du-jour involves Matt Holliday, one of the top free agents this winter. According to Ken Davidoff, Holliday’s top choice is New York.

Although the Sunder Insider piece isn’t online as part of Newsday’s awful new website, Davidoff summarized the rumor:

According to a person in the loop, Matt Holliday’s top choices in free agency are: 1) Yankees; and 2) Mets. The Oklahoma native is apparently not intimidated by New York.

As of now, I’d say the Yankees don’t want to make another large purchase like that, in the wake of last winter’s shopping spree – and if they win it all, then the pressure from the yakosphere (trademark Neil Best) to get Holliday should alleviate.

The Mets? Based on Jeff Wilpon’s words from a few weeks ago, they’ll consider anything and everything. Of course, many industry folks are very skeptical that the Mets will actually do so. Holliday’s primary reservation about joining the Mets? Yup, hitting at Citi Field. Maybe they can alter the dimensions? Jerry Manuel hinted near the end of the season that wasn’t impossible.

Mike Silva, writing about this rumor, reminds us of a recent Jon Heyman report in which the Sports Illustrated scribe’s sources say Holliday’s agent will ask for seven years and $150 million. That, of course, is just an initial request. Holliday would probably be content with five years and $100 million.

Meanwhile, in the Bronx, Bill Madden checks in with the Yanks’ off-season preparations. Even though the team on the field is focused on their ultimate goal, the Front Office is busy assessing free agency. Madden believes the Yanks will resign either Hideki Matsui or Johnny Damon on a short deal and attempt to fill in from free agency. Interestingly, Madden drops Justin Duchscherer’s name and picks Desmond DeChone Figgins as a left field replacement. Never mind the reality that Figgins has 36 games of left field experience under his belt.

If the Yanks’ choice comes down to one between Holliday and Figgins, I pick Matt Holliday. He’s two years younger than Figgins and probably won’t suffer through as big a decline as Figgins would. The Yanks have around $50 million coming off the books this year and no major pitching holes to fill. They can spend the money on offense, and Holliday wouldn’t be a poor choice if the price is right. But will the price really be right?

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At some point soon — hopefully today because I’ll be there — Derek Jeter will become the Yanks’ all-time leader on the hit list. In a few weeks, we’ll hear rumblings of a potential MVP award. In a few years, he’ll reach that 3000-hit plateau and possibly even that 3500-hit mark. Along the way, he’ll hit his 250th home run and score his 2000th run.

There is, of course, one monumental event that is going to arrive before a few of those milestones: Derek Jeter’s ten-year contract will expire. Make no mistake about it; this is a big deal.

Over the last few weeks, Joe and I have spent some time exploring Jeter’s contract status. While Jeter hasn’t been saying much about his new deal, I speculated that the Yanks might break with tradition and sign Derek to an extension this year. Such a move would cut off the media circus surrounding Derek the Free Agent before it could begin. Late on Friday, though, Joe noted that multiple reports indicate the Yankees will wait until after 2010 to re-up with Jeter.

Today, Bob Klapisch introduces a few new elements to the mix as he asks one very big question: While the Yankees, in the words of Jayson Stark, will probably “take care of” Jeter, what will happen when and if Derek asks for a four-year, $100-million extension? In a piece high on superlatives, Klapisch writes that Jeter has “a larger footprint than anyone in the organization.” Since 1995, Derek Jeter has been a Yankee, and since shortly thereafter, the two — Yankee baseball and Derek Jeter — have been synonymous. Jeter, says Klapisch, knows this and knows what it can mean for him:

Jeter has made it clear he’d like to finish his career in pinstripes. The Yankees certainly want him back when his current deal expires after 2010. Everyone agrees on that much. But after earning $41 million in 2009-10, Jeter will be in no mood for a pay cut, not after seeing A-Rod awarded a 10-year, $275 million deal after the 2007 season.

How much will Jeter be worth at age 37 is a question the Yankee hierarchy doesn’t dare discuss publicly. No team in the last 50 years has won a championship with a shortstop that old, although that won’t deter either side from finding middle ground. That is, unless Jeter wants to stay at the position into his 40s and is thinking of earning $25 million a year.

The Yankees are bracing for the possibility that Jeter could indeed ask for, say, $100 million over four years, knowing the captain would have enormous leverage in the talks. That’s why management won’t even begin to discuss a new contract this winter; in the wake of an MVP-caliber season, the cost would be prohibitive.

Instead, the Yankees will run the table on Jeter’s existing deal and hope common sense prevails in 2011. One industry analyst says, “let’s see if (Jeter) realizes the market has come down” since A-Rod’s record-setting contract.

Giving Jeter a contract extension after his 2009 campaign would be, simply put, a bad business decision. The Yankees would be paying Jeter going forward for what he has accomplished this year, and while Jeter appears ageless now, he is more likely to decline over the next five years than he is to duplicate this season’s numbers. So the Yankees will wait.

Derek, too, will wait. He’ll wait for the money that he thinks should be his. He’ll wait for the offer that should head his way. In the end, Derek Jeter will resign with the Yankees. He can’t really go play anywhere else, and the Yankees can’t afford to see him leave. How much it will cost though to keep him is anyone’s guess. I fear that $100 million contract, but it won’t be too much less than that.

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