• Ron

    I’d rather have Lowe than Burnett. He’d come for fewer years and fewer $$$, and has proven to be much more durable over his career. Only time would tell, of course, but I believe the Yanks would make out better w/ Lowe for 3 years than AJ for 5.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      Agreed. The fact that the last time he pitched in the AL was four years ago, and did so with terrible numbers, is irrelevant to me. If the Yanks are going to base player decisions based on four year old stats, then they should be hard after Sheets & RJ.

      • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

        “If the Yanks are going to base player decisions based on four year old stats, then they should be hard after Sheets & RJ.”

        I see where you’re going with that but I don’t think you’re saying it the right way. With regard to Lowe, some people point to his stats 4-5 years ago in the AL East because they’re pondering bringing him back into that situation with 4-5 years more wear and tear on his arm/body, and those people are assuming a player at his age is getting worse and not better and projecting what his numbers might look like if he’s brought back to the AL East at his more advanced age. You can certainly disagree with that line of reasoning, but saying “well Eric Gagne had 45 saves and a 2.19 ERA in 2004, but I don’t want him as my closer!” isn’t really a good rebuttal.

      • radnom

        I think the should be after Sheets over Lowe and Burnett (assuming they manage to sign one other non-major-injury risk starter)

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

        If the Yanks are going to base player decisions based on four year old stats, then they should be hard after Sheets & RJ.

        Hold on, I’m getting Travis Hafner’s agent on the phone right now…

      • Chris C.

        “Agreed. The fact that the last time he pitched in the AL was four years ago, and did so with terrible numbers, is irrelevant to me.”

        How could this possily be irrelevant? You think as soon as he left the Red Sox, he learned how to pitch? How about this………….when Lowe wasn’t pitching in Chavez Ravine this year, his ERA was in the mid 4’s.
        Is that irrelevant? The guy’s best years are behind him. And coming back to the AL will further illustrate that.

        “If the Yanks are going to base player decisions based on four year old stats, then they should be hard after Sheets & RJ.”

        Maybe they should base their player decisions on who will benefit them heading into the future, instead of the stupid patchwork jobs they’ve been partaking in over the past few years. And it would also be nice if these players actually WANTED to come to NY, instead of having to overpay them a ton to drag them here.
        The guy will be 37, folks! C’mon already.

  • steve (different one)

    Lowe is decent. if the Yankees sign him, i won’t be upset. if they don’t, i won’t be upset.

    • Slugger27

      cosign…. ive probably been one of the biggest lowe advocators here… but i wont be heartbroken if they dont sign him

      i still see him as a better sign than aj burnett… and i think him and CC would be a very nice xmas present, but its not like hes a cant-miss

      definitely not worth getting into some crazy bidding war over

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

      If they sign him for 3 years, 45M, would you be upset?

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

        If one year into that deal, he goes 7-12 with a 4.97 ERA, struggles mightily and gets pulled from the rotation in favor of an emerging Phil Hughes, and we go into the 2010 season with CC, Wang, Joba, Hughes and IPK with 37 year old Derek Lowe as our sixth starter still owed 30M over the next two years, would you be mad then?

        Just curious.

      • steve (different one)

        If they sign him for 3 years, 45M, would you be upset?

        well, it depends on certain things. what happened to Moose? what happens with Sabathia?

        just saying, if the Yankees go into 2009 with CC, Wang, Joba, Lowe, and Pettitte…no, i wouldn’t be upset.

        i’d prefer to just go with Moose, but i don’t know if he will come back.

        ehh, i’m not a big enough proponent of this to put my heart into the argument. all i was saying is that Lowe is a little better than some are giving him credit for.

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

          Fair enough.

  • E-ROC

    I don’t see the Yanks entering a bidding war with the Mets unless the Yanks want to drive up the price. I think they’ll go after Sheets before Lowe, if the rumors are true that the Yanks want to sign two premium pitchers.

    • Thomas

      I don’t know why, but the Yankees don’t seem to want to go after Sheets.
      I think he’d be a far better choice than Lowe, since they will get similar deals and Sheets won’t suck.

      I guess the Yanks are scared off by his injury history, but not Burnett’s or Lowe’s suckiness in the AL East.

      • steve (different one)

        I don’t know why, but the Yankees don’t seem to want to go after Sheets.

        because he ended the season with a serious elbow injury.

        I guess the Yanks are scared off by his injury history, but not Burnett’s or Lowe’s suckiness in the AL East.

        that’s because neither “Burnett’s or Lowe’s suckiness in the AL East” actually exist.

        Lowe in the AL East: 3.72 ERA in 1037 innings
        Burnett in AL East: 3.95 ERA in 522 innings

        i can kindof see the argument with Lowe b/c he struggled in his final year in Boston (not sure why we are ignoring his other 6 seasons there), but where is Burnett’s suckiness?

        • Thomas

          Sheets is still expected to be ready by ST. Also I’d suspect he’d have to pass a rigorous physical. Obviously if he fails its, you don’t sign him

          The other part came out wrong it was supposed to be Burnett’s injury history, which is similar to Sheets.

          Also Derek Lowe was pretty bad his last two years in the AL East and only had 1 good year in the AL East in which he started. I find his relief stat fairly irrelevant since he’d be starting.

          Burnett simply does not suck, just poor writing on my part.

          • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

            “Derek Lowe was pretty bad his last two years in the AL East and only had 1 good year in the AL East in which he started.”

            Was just about to write the same thing. Derek Lowe was a starter for 3 seasons in Boston. The first (219.7 IP) was very good. The last 2 (386 IP), not so much.

            • steve (different one)

              i don’t think his second to last season was bad.

              200+ innings with a 104 ERA+.

              pretty good.

              • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

                A 104 ERA+ is pretty much the definition of a league-average season. You can call that “pretty good” if you want, but that’s being pretty generous. That season Lowe had a 4.47 ERA, 1.4 WHIP, and 110 Ks against 72 BBs in 203.3 IP. Color me very unimpressed. Let’s call it “average.” Now you’ve got 1 good season, 1 average season, and 1 poor season (in that order) in his 3 seasons spent starting in the AL East between ages 29-31.

                • steve (different one)

                  A 104 ERA+ is pretty much the definition of a league-average season.

                  no, it isn’t.

                  league average for STARTING pitchers is not 100 ERA+. it’s more like an ERA+ of around 96.

                  so, a 104 ERA+ is about 8% better than league average for a starter.

                  also, you really have to remember the offensive environment of 2003. a 4.47 ERA in the AL East in 2003 pitching half your games in Fenway was really quite good.

                  i’ll stick with “pretty good”.

                  also, 2002 wasn’t just “good”, it was great.

                  so, now you have 1 great season, 1 good season, and 1 below average season.

                • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

                  Ugh. Dude, it’s all subjective. You call it “pretty good,” I call it uninspiring and average. You call his 2004 “below average,” I call it shitty. I don’t think my opinions of his work in the AL East are unreasonable, nor do I think yours are. If you disagree and think I’m being unreasonable, so be it. We’re arguing over whether a 4.47 ERA, 1.4 WHIP, and 110 Ks against 72 BBs in 203.3 IP is “pretty good” or “average?” Really?

                • steve (different one)

                  agree to disagree. you’re a smart guy, i understand your side of it. i don’t think you are being unreasonable.

                  i am just saying that the offensive environment in 2004 was very high. the league ERA was 4.63. it was 4.36 in 2008.

                  a 4.47 ERA in 2004 was “pretty good”, but i guess i could also see how you could call it “uninspiring”.

                • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

                  Hug it out.

          • steve (different one)

            The other part came out wrong it was supposed to be Burnett’s injury history, which is similar to Sheets.

            no problem, that makes sense.

        • Chris C.

          “that’s because neither “Burnett’s or Lowe’s suckiness in the AL East” actually exist.

          Lowe in the AL East: 3.72 ERA in 1037 innings
          Burnett in AL East: 3.95 ERA in 522 innings”

          Wow, I sure hope Brian Cashman is not trying to hype himself into excitement over these players by utilizing this kind of numbers skewing.
          I mean geez, Lowe’s last two years in the AL was about a combined 5.00 ERA, and you’re trying to make him look like Chien Ming Wang.

        • Chris C.

          “i can kindof see the argument with Lowe b/c he struggled in his final year in Boston (not sure why we are ignoring his other 6 seasons there)”

          You don’t know why people are ignoring seasons Derek Lowe had when he was 25-30 years old, when he is now approacing 37?

          • steve (different one)

            You don’t know why people are ignoring seasons Derek Lowe had when he was 25-30 years old, when he is now approacing 37?

            let me clarify:

            the argument was that Lowe “sucked” in the AL East.

            all i was saying, was that in 5 of his 6 seasons in the AL East, he was pretty good. this is a fact. it isn’t really disputable.

            you have a valid argument that he is older now and will probably be worse. i’m not denying that.

            i wasn’t trying to say he will be the same pitcher in the AL East than he has been with the Dodgers. just saying that it isn’t accurate to say he “sucked” in the AL East. he didn’t.

            • Chris C.

              Okay. Good clarification.
              I’ve always liked Lowe as well when he was on the Red Sox, and he certainly didn’t stink overall.

              But right now, I don’t see the point in getting him. Are the Yankees trying to build something for the future, or scrap and claw their way to one championship before being considered an “old” team again?

            • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

              “…in 5 of his 6 seasons in the AL East, he was pretty good. this is a fact. it isn’t really disputable.”

              Actually, it’s very disputable. Per my comment above, he spent 3 seasons as a starter in the AL East, and was only “good” in one of them (the first one). I don’t think his time spent in the bullpen in the AL East is persuasive (or even very relevant), I think his time spent as a starter is more important. After his good season he was average one year, then poor the next. I’m not making a judgment call here on Lowe’s value, I just think you’re putting some stuff out there as background information that’s inaccurate, and literally saying it’s “indisputable.”

              • steve (different one)

                I don’t think his time spent in the bullpen in the AL East is persuasive (or even very relevant)

                i do.

                the claim was that he “sucked” in the AL East.

                whether he was starting or relieving, he was still pitching in the AL East.

                again, that doesn’t mean it would translate to starting for the Yankees in 2009.

                but i can’t ignore 300+ innings in the AL East just because they were bullpen innings.

                • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

                  Yeah, you really can ignore his BP work to a certain extent. I’m not saying you have to act like his time in the BP never happened, but there’s CLEARLY a pretty big difference between working out of the BP and starting. I think the most relevant numbers from Lowe’s time in the AL East are his numbers as a starter. Look at his BP numbers if you want, I just think his numbers as a starter are much more relevant to this discussion.

  • Scott of 3 Kids Tickets

    I’m tired of signing Red Sox retreads. I’ll take Burnett simply for his record vs the Red Sox.

    -Scott

    • pat

      yes he is ace-like when he faces us and the redsox, unfortunately he is only ok against the other 28 teams but wants to be pad like an ace.

      • pat

        or paid

    • Reggie C.

      That’s not a good way to look at this situation. Kazmir had terrific success against the RS last season; now, he’s not that effective. Good teams adjust. Its not fair to Burnett to expect him to be lights-out against a club like the RS. That kind of success just doesn’t last.

      Is Burnett a good pitcher overall? Yes. If healthy, Burnett over 32 starts can have his ace games. His stuff and moxie makes him better than league average for sure, and on a good team he’ll LIKELY repeat his 18 win season.

      • Chris C.

        “Is Burnett a good pitcher overall? Yes.”

        No. OVERALL, I’d say he’s an average pitcher.

        “If healthy, Burnett over 32 starts can have his ace games.”

        He sure can. But not evough of them to actually call him a great pitcher. That’s why OVERALL, he’s an average pitcher.

        “His stuff and moxie makes him better than league average for sure”

        His WHAT? What are his “moxie” numbers? The guy’s ERA was over 4.00, and his WHIP was just okay. He is SLIGHTLY above average, but not much more. The only “moxie” Burnett has displayed is the moxie to have his best seasons during walk years.

      • Chris C.

        Sorry, Reggie…….my bad.
        You called Burnett a good pitcher, not a great one. I agree with that.

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

      I’m tired of signing Red Sox retreads.

      Out of curiosity, when Beckett or Lester hit free agency sometime in the future, would you be against signing either of them?

      • Chris C.

        Nope. Because unlike Cashman, Epstein makes every effort to tie up his valuable players with extensions BEFORE they become free agents.
        Look for him to do this with Lester after next season as well.

        When Red Sox pitchers hit the FA market, they’re usually over the hill.

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

          Thanks for radically changing my hypothetical to the point where it’s asking a totally different question and no longer of any value to anyone.

          Especially since I wasn’t asking you.

          [facepalm]

          • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

            Scott of 3 Kids Tickets says:

            I’m tired of signing Red Sox retreads. I’ll take Burnett simply for his record vs the Red Sox.

            -Scott

            Hey Scott of 3 Kids Tickets, out of curiosity, when Beckett or Lester hit free agency sometime in the near future, would you be against signing either of them?

            Thanks in advance for satisfying my curiosity on this, Scott of 3 Kids Tickets.

        • steve (different one)

          just for the record, this policy of not locking up players before FA is a George Steinbrenner policy. it is not necessarily a Cashman policy.

          he did this with Cano. of course, Cano shit the bed this year, but you get the point.

          for example: Cashman had an 8 year, $118M contract with Jeter agreed upon in 2000, before Jeter would have become a free agent.

          here is a link: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/news/2000/01/18/jeter_ap/index.html

          George eventually nixed this deal. George would not let Cashman work out anything with Bernie ahead of time. and i would assume the same is true for Pettitte.

          if Wang has another good year, i would expect Cashman to give him a 4 year deal next winter covering his final 2 years of arbitration and 2 years of free agency.

          not arguing your overall point, b/c this has been a long-standing Yankee policy, but i am just pointing out that this isn’t necessarily a Cashman policy. it was a George policy.

        • steve (different one)

          Nope. Because unlike Cashman, Epstein makes every effort to tie up his valuable players with extensions BEFORE they become free agents.

          ok, i just lost a long post about this. i will sum it up:

          this has been a long-standing yankee policy to not give extensions before free agency. however, there is a lot of evidence that it was a George Steinbrenner policy, not a Cashman policy.

          1. Cashman had an 8 year extension for $118M for Jeter worked out a year before Jeter signed his 10 year $189M deal, but George nixed it. google “Cashman Jeter contract” you will find articles about this from 2000.

          2. George would not give Bernie an extension prior to FA. i assume this was also true for Pettitte.

          3. Cashman just gave Cano an extension with CLUB options for Cano’s first 2 years of free agency. this indicates a change in policy since Cashman took over.

          4. if Wang has another good year, i’d expect Cashman to sign him to a 4 year deal next winter, buying out 2 years of free agency.

          so, i don’t disagree that the Yankees haven’t done this in the past. however, there is evidence that it was driven by George, not Cashman.

          • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

            Damnit, steve, that’s not the point. The point is, as always, Cashman’s an idiot and Theo is a supergenius. None of your silly “facts” or “historical accuracies” will change that law, handed down from God himself.

            The sooner you get that through your head, the happier we’ll all be.

            • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

              “None of your silly “facts” or “historical accuracies” will change that law, handed down from God Mo Chris C. himself.”

              Fixed.

  • Z1m

    Lowe would be no better then Moose or Andy. I would watch the Yankees picking up Moose. I think last year he was great but I don’t know if we can expect the same. If Moose pitches next year I think he’ll probably have around 4.25era and 12-14 wins. Which I would sign up for. Andy was tired/hurt down the stretch but continued to gut it out. He is younger and a lefty. I think he will have a bounceback year and I expect him to be around that 13-16 wins if healthy. I would be more in favor a signing Andy then Moose if I have a choice of the two. If Moose comes back I take them both hoping they settle money wise a lot cheaper then the other FA options. This is a good idea all banking on CC signing here.

    Lowe would be good if Moose doesn’t come back and the Yankees sign CC and resign Andy. I could do with a rotation of CC Wang Joba Pettite Lowe and Hughes. Notice the 6 man rotation. I really think that would be the way to go. Not just for Joba and Hughes but also to give CC is little extra rest everyonce in a while with all the innings he has thrown over the last two years. Plus Moose and Pettite with their age could use a skip start or an extra day here and there.

    Probably not going with a 6 man rotation but wishful thinking.

  • Adam

    wang, then mitre, now lowe?

    soon to come: webb, westbrook, and carmona?

  • DonnieBaseballHallofFame

    No thanks on Derek Slow. I would rather stink next year, than sign some over the hill guys to multi year deals.

  • Bo

    Burnett just dominated in the AL East. He has strikeout stuff which we need.

    • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

      Don’t you think “dominant” is a bit strong of a term to use to describe AJ Burnett’s 2008 season? Dude had a 105 ERA+. He was good, but “dominant?” No.