Get It Dunn

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RAB Fantasy Football League Update III

The date is August 10th, 2004, and the Dodgers’ Jose Lima finishes his warmup tosses prior to the bottom of the fourth in Cincinatti’s Great American Ballpark. Adam Dunn steps to the plate to leadoff the inning, having popped out to second to end a nine pitch battle in his first at-bat. The first pitch is a called strike, and Dunn fouls off the second for a quick 0-2 count. Lima Time tries to get Dunn flailing at something off the plate for the K, but The Big Donkey takes three straight balls to the work the count back full. Dunn fouls off the sixth pitch of the at-bat, then the seventh.

It’s just his second trip to the plate in the game, but Dunn has already coaxed sixteen pitches out of Lima; the rest of the Reds have seen just thirty pitches combined in their eleven plate appearances. Lima delivers the eighth pitch of the at-bat and Dunn connects, sending the ball deep to centerfield. It’s not a question of if he hit it out, but by how much. The ball clears the bleachers and takes a bounce off Mehring Way beyond the stadium walls. It lands on a piece of driftwood in the Ohio River, which eventually comes to a rest in nearby Newport, Kentucky.

The official measure on the homer is a monstrous 535 feet, and because of the way the Ohio-Kentucky border was defined by the low water mark of the river back in 1793, it is also believed to be the first (and only) homerun in Major League history to cross a state line in flight. Now that is freaking cool.

The Diamondbacks, who have already laid off thirty one front office employees this offseason, declined to offer Dunn arbitration before Monday’s line, meaning that the Type-A free agent will not cost a draft pick to sign. I think you know where I’m going with this.

Everything about Adam Dunn is big. He’s physically huge (listed a 6’6″, 275 lbs, and I’m willing to bet it’s muscle, not fat) and was a tremendous football prospect in high school, signing on to play quarterback at Texas before deciding to focus on baseball full time. He’s got tremendous power, racks up huge walks totals and even huger strikeout totals. Since his first full season in 2002 only three players have hit more homers (A-Rod, Pujols, Thome) and no one has drawn more walks (non-Barry division). At the same time, however, he’s also struck out nearly two hundred times more than any other player in the game. The man is not without his faults, but the positives outweigh the negatives.

Traditionalists point to his low batting averages (.246 career BA) and aforementioned strikeout totals as evidence of him being an unproductive player, but those of us unafraid of funny acronyms and spreadsheets point to his sky high wOBA (.383 career), EqA (.301) and VORP (37.4) and say “hey, this dude is a really good player.” He’s Joe Morgan’s dream player because he’s extremely consistent, smacking 40 homers on the nose in each of the last four seasons, and posting OBP’s of .388, .387, .386 and .386 in four of the last five years. Stick him in the Yankee lineup with the short porch in right, and those numbers might jump to 50 & .410. Dunn has seen 4.24 P/PA in his career, more than Jason Giambi (4.12) and just barely less than Bobby Abreu (4.27), and he’s also nice and clutchy (2.81 avg WPA over the last five years).

He sucks defensively out in left field, posting revised zone ratings of .899, .826 and .878 over the last three seasons. Dunn has some experience at first, but he’s bad there as well and hurts the team less by hiding out in a corner outfield spot. The Yanks have the option of starting Johnny Damon in centerfield, then sliding him over to left late in the game for defense with Melky/Gardner taking over up the middle. Dunn’s a better athlete than you may think, but his arm will make you wonder how he was ever recruited to play QB for the Longhorns.

Dunn’s name hasn’t even been whispered this offseason, with Mark Teixeira and Manny Ramirez rightfully hogging the position player headlines. Given the holes in the lineup created by the departures of Giambi and Abreu, as well as the complete lack of outfielders under contract beyond 2009, it would behoove the Yanks to look into bringing The Big Donkey aboard. His skill set is undervalued, and while he’ll still command an eight-figure annual salary (he made $13M last year), he’s a significantly cheaper but only marginally inferior option to Teixeira. Obviously short term contracts are ideal, but a three year deal for the now 29 yr old Dunn wouldn’t be absurd. PECOTA has a favorable 50 percentile projection, so even a guaranteed fourth year wouldn’t be the end of the world. And think, he won’t even cost a draft pick!

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Sports' most recognized brand
RAB Fantasy Football League Update III
  • Eric

    I <3 Adam Dunn.

    As for his defense, I think he was just about average by PMR this year.

    I posted in another thread different lineup combos the Yankees could try out if they got Dunn (incl. platooning Matsui and Nady).

    GET IT DONE, BRIAN.

  • Mike Pop

    Great post Mike

  • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

    You had me at “Jose Lima”.

    • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi
      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

        I knew that was coming from somebody. I can always count on you, Congressman, to have my back when it comes to leering at women.

        Here’s one of my favorite pictures of Jose Lima’s wife:
        http://www.bbc.co.uk/insideout.....70x357.jpg

        • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

          Ha. I was like “boo I don’t get it” and then I caught on (phew).

        • http://www.samiamsports.blogspot.com SAMIAMSPORTS

          nice set of hooters you got there!!!

      • RustyJohn

        This sign should be placed in front of her.

        http://www.psywarrior.com/BabyMilkPlant.jpg

  • Chris

    The thought of Damon in CF and Dunn in LF makes me cringe. If we sign Dunn, then he should primarily DH.

    • christopher

      dunn is a better fielder than he is given credit for – actually better than Abreu

      • Chris C.

        “dunn is a better fielder than he is given credit for – actually better than Abreu”

        An oak tree has more range than Abreu.
        And dives for more balls too!

        • DonnieBaseballHallofFame

          While Bobbito was not a big diver I saw him dive more than Bernie Williams. Bob’s main problem other than being too much of a happy go lucky type of dude is that he ran into the wall one time long ago in a land far far away and was (to use a word that Adam Dunn might use) ascurred of the wall. Would love to see Bob play full time at Wrigley.

          Dunn is not a guy I want on this team.

          Dunn reeks of a stat guys wet dream. Too much of paper player for me.

          • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph P.

            See? This last line is where you rub everyone wrong. The only reason you criticize Dunn like this is because he has a low batting average. It’s pretty damn clear.

            Dunn does two things very well:

            1) He doesn’t make outs as frequently as most other players in the league. How does this make him a paper player? If you make fewer outs, you give your teams a greater chance to score runs.

            2) He drives in his own share of runs because he hits a shitload of home runs. He might even hit more with the short porch.

            So why don’t you be honest and say you don’t like Dunn because he has a low batting average, strikes out a lot, and plays reputedly poor defense? Maybe it’s because we’d strike down those objections pretty damn quick.

            • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

              He wouldn’t make those arguments, because they’re STATS!!! Stats are evil. He’s scouted Dunn the old fashioned way, by actually LOOKING at him (unlike you PieChart Dweebs), and he came to the ironclad conclusion that he sucks, because strikeouts make Baby Jesus cry and it’s impossible to be a good player if you don’t “play the game the right way”. Like Don Mattingly did.

              • SFT

                Quick question, I know this is a tad late, but I am curious about Dunn’s clutch hitting. I don’t give a damn about his Average or strikeouts. I want to know if there are runners on, does he drive them in frequently ?

          • jsbrendog

            While Bobbito was not a big diver I saw him dive more than Bernie Williams.

            bernie williams has better numbers than donnie, get over it and stop whining. Bernie had very good range despite not having a “great first step” and not having to dive for balls in center field means he p[robably couldve caught everything abreau didnt while standing on his hands with a glove on his off foot.

            stats are part of the game, you can’t win by signgin players that “look good to ,me cause i have a baseball eye and im so smart” scouts are wrong just as much as they’re right. that’s why, you guessed it, you need stats.

            in closing:

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          • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph P.

            And for posterity, I’ll strike down the arguments (so no one can say I copped out).

            Who cares about his low batting average? If Dunn has demonstrated anything, it’s that he can recognize pitches. It’s why he’s always among the league leaders in walks. In order to raise his BA, he’d have to swing at more bad pitches, thus reducing his walks, thus reducing his OBP, thus meaning he’d be making more outs, thus meaning he’d be a further detriment to the team. He’s fine the way he is. He doesn’t make outs. Most guys are lucky if they don’t make an out one out of every three plate appearances. Dunn doesn’t make an out in nearly two out of five plate appearances. Once again, he’s one of the best in the league at doing this.

            Second, when he does get a hit, he crushes it. His SLG last year was .513 against a BA of .236. I know this is only “paper” but do you know what that means. Essentially, it means that every time he got it a hit it was for MORE THAN A DOUBLE. So when he does get a hit, it counts. He had more doubles and homers combined then he had singles. The dude hits the shit out of the ball.

            Finally, the only time a strikeout hurts you more than any other kind of out is when there’s a runner on third and less than two outs. Yeah, sometimes it means you don’t move the runner over, but in other situations it means you don’t ground into a double play. Or line it right to a fielder. A strikeout is the same as a groundout. In one situation you won’t move the runner over, but in the other you could take two outs off the board.

            So, in conclusion, Adam Dunn 1) doesn’t make many outs and 2) hits the ball really freaking hard, which more than makes up for his perceived shortcomings.

            • jsbrendog

              2) hits the ball really freaking hard

              well, sign his ass up then.

              (I agree with everything you said, just that this made me chuckle)

            • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

              And Donnie, if it seems like everyone is ganging up on you, it’s because we are. Because your logic and reasoning are horrible, and we get tired of you spouting it out and then ridiculously slandering your opponents as being too young/dumb/nerdy to see things as “clearly” as you do.

              You cling to silly stereotypes and outmoded biases and then attempt to cover up the laughably ignorant positions you take with untenable emotional arguments devoid of any rationality or intellectual honesty and with ceaseless name calling.

              You love to state your opinions but hate to back them up. Perhaps you should cease stating your opinions.

              • jsbrendog

                what he’s saying here is that we’re a lot smarter than most posters on other blogs because we have these things you might not have heard of called fact and rationale and knowledge on our side. we dont just go yelling teh yankees are the ass suck nut offring arbitration to petit.

                i am notinsulting your intelligence, I am just bragging about ours

                ps are you a hippie because paper kills trees and paper players are therefore solely responsible fo the deforestation of our national parks and the amazon rainforest?

            • steve (different one)

              if only there were a stat that combined OBP with SLG….but i guess the last thing we need are more stats.

              i mean, who’s with me?

              i heard Dunn wrote a macro in excel to hit his HRs for him. that’s awesome!!

          • Chris C.

            “Dunn reeks of a stat guys wet dream. Too much of paper player for me.”

            You mean he puts up good stats? Ewww. Thanks for the warning. We don’t want any of those guys in pinstripes.

            He only hits over 40 homers and works the count beautifully while reaching base around 40% of the time on paper. He doesn’t actually do that on the ballfield.

            • jsbrendog

              is this like stratocaster football or whatever the hell it is called since s strat is a guitar?

              you know you put the guys on the thing tunr on the vibrator and they do stuff, totally random stuff?

              • Chris C.

                That’s classic.

                My favorite toy as a kid!

                • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

                  You two played electric football? Obviously, you’re both horrible nerd-dweebs who are unathletic and hate baseball and you’ve never hit a ball off a tee, and you like pie charts and graphs and stats, plus you’re younger than me so you are both stupid idiots who don’t know anything and your opinions are worthless, tuff guys.

                  You suck, I rule, net dorks.

                  Sincerely,
                  DonnieBaseballHallofFame

                  P.S. Adam Dunn doesn’t hustle or play the game the right way and he sucks and I’m going to call him “Bambi” and Don Mattingly is the greatest man in history.

    • Sam Simon

      What exactly would make you happy? You seem to always be so damn negative.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

        He’d be happy if all these damn nerds would let him alone and go play Nerd-ball or something, so the real baseball-loving, baseball-playing, batting-average-using manly men could play the game in peace with out pocket-protector-wearing, stat-compiling non-gritty-anti-gamers and nancy-girl columnists ruining everyone’s romantic narrative, what with their “facts” and “analysis” and their damned adherence to “accurate history”.

        • jsbrendog

          he’s also got a pictionary date with eckstein next week

          • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

            Did the man who invented Pictionary ever hit the ball off a tee? If not, DonnieBaseballHallofFame wants nothing to do with that game, it sucks.

    • Chris C.

      “The thought of Damon in CF and Dunn in LF makes me cringe. If we sign Dunn, then he should primarily DH”

      LMAO!!!!! You know what they say…….you can never have enough DH’s!

      Aside from Gardner and Cabrera, every outfielder on the Yankees should be DHing.

  • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

    He’s Joe Morgan’s dream player because he’s extremely consistent…

    Joe Morgan will hunt you down and kill you with his amazing ninja-tactics for ever claiming a guy crappy enough to have a .246 BA could ever be good, much less his dream player.

    You take that back, while you still the breath in your windpipe to say it.

    • Andy In Sunny Daytona

      Harmon Killebrew had a lifetime .256 average, and with him being in the Hall od Fame that instantly makes him Joe Morgan’s brother. Joe Morgan would bash anyone’s skull in, if they dared to talk bad about a fellow HOFer, or Jason Varitek.

  • AndrewYF

    I can’t believe the lack of interest surrounding Dunn. I really hope the Yankees sign him, his sweet left-handed swing will more than replace Giambi’s production, and at a fraction of the cost.

    • Chris C.

      “I can’t believe the lack of interest surrounding Dunn. I really hope the Yankees sign him, his sweet left-handed swing will more than replace Giambi’s production, and at a fraction of the cost.”

      The Yankees can still get Jason Giambi to replace Jason Giambi at a fraction of the cost.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

        As well as at a fraction of the production.

  • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

    L-Damon-CF
    R-Jeter-SS
    L-Cano-2B
    R-ARod-3B
    L-Dunn-LF
    S-Posada-C
    L-Matsui-DH
    R-Nady-RF
    S-Swisher-1B

    • MJ

      Matsui optimism here. It’s hard to imagine that Matsui can make it through a full season at this point.

    • A.D.

      Dunn Cleanup, A-Rod 3, Cano 5… but i get what you’re saying… and per MJs comment if Matsui goes down Dunn to DH

      • Chip

        Matsui doesn’t even need to go down. The Yankees are going to want to give guys days off as well. They could put Dunn at first on Swisher’s day off, Dunn can DH on Matsui’s day off and of course Dunn will get a day off here and there. Also, Dunn can go play first on Nady’s days off with Swisher moving to RF. I don’t think we’d see a whole lot of Dunn-Damon-Nady days

      • christopher

        i like dunn hitting 3rd and getting fed fastballs in front of AROD. Plus the best you can do for arod as a hitter is have a man on base for him when he gets up

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

      With Fangraphs projected 2009 wOBA’s from Bill James:

      L-Damon-CF: .346
      R-Jeter-SS: .361
      L-Cano-2B: .345
      R-ARod-3B: .415
      L-Dunn-LF: .396
      S-Posada-C: .368
      L-Matsui-DH: .364
      R-Nady-RF: .353
      S-Swisher-1B: .358

      Interestingly, Bill James predicts a .341 2009 wOBA from Gardner. Is that appetizing enough to consider dumping Matsui and moving Damon to LF, giving CF to Brett? With and ARod-Dunn-Posada core, we can probably withstand the slight offensive hit between Matsui and Gardner, IMO, and it’s probably offset by Gardner’s speed on the basepaths and far superior CF over Damon…

      Oh, and for more food for thought, James predicts a .413 for Manny, a .412 for Texy, a .380 for Burrell, and a .375 from Bobby.

      • Alan

        Oh God, we’re already referencing wOBA here? That didn’t take long.

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

          OH NO, TEH EVIL STATTS!!!!

          • http://barackobama.com TurnTwo

            WaT R ‘DeSe CrAzEE NMUBRS?!%!

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

        And now with with their career avg P/PA:

        L-Damon-CF: 3.88
        R-Jeter-SS: 3.75
        L-Cano-2B: 3.27
        R-ARod-3B: 3.93
        L-Dunn-LF: 4.24
        S-Posada-C: 3.89
        L-Matsui-DH: 3.84
        R-Nady-RF: 3.62
        S-Swisher-1B: 4.25

        That’s nearly 35 pitches on average each time through the order, meaning by the fifth inning, the pitcher’s pretty taxed.

      • Andy In Sunny Daytona

        Bill James has the collective Red Sox wOBA at .425.

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

          Per inning.

          • Andy In Sunny Daytona

            Just the pitchers in National League games.

    • Chip

      Damon
      Jeter
      Dunn
      ARod
      Matsui
      Posada
      Swisher
      Cano
      Nady

      There’s no way they put Cano in the three hole when they have the on-base machine of Dunn in that lineup. That’s actually quite the scary lineup on paper if guys even put up their career lines

    • Chris C.

      Nice lineup, although Cano hitting 3rd and Swisher 9th doesn’t thrill me.

      Anyone who works the count and reaches base as often as Swisher should be at the plate in front of AROD more often than Robinson Cano.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

        Yeah, there’s lots of ways you can do it. I was just trying to find a decent player to slot in the 3 hole who wasn’t a righty to break up the Jeter-ARod righty bats.

        If Swish looks good during the spring, I’ve got no qualms about hitting him third.

        • Chris C.

          I think the addition of Swisher will be better than people think. The best thing to happen to the Yankees is for him to have a down year BA-wise, and not get along with Guillen.

          • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

            I’ll buy that.

  • radnom

    Ok, I realise this was not the main point of this post but hear me out.

    The Yanks have the option of starting Johnny Damon in centerfield, then sliding him over to left late in the game for defense with Melky/Gardner taking over up the middle.

    Many members of this site, including the authors I beleive, have used the argument that “statistically a hit or a run in the first inning is just as valuable as one in the ninth” to defend Arod when he comes under attack from someone for “only comming through when it doesn’t matter”.
    note- I’m not attacking arod, that is not relevant to my point, just bear with me
    Thats all well an good, but how then can you justify “defensive replacements” late in games?
    Why not, in this situation, start Gardner in center and Damon in left, and then sub in Dunn in the third inning? Isn’t a run saved at the begining of the game just as valuable as a run saved at the end?
    Or wouldn’t you argue that statistically, one of these alignments is more beinificial for the Yankees, so shouldnt they stick with that one the entire time?

    Now, I know what this knee-jerk reaction is going to be…..
    “Well the situation is different at the end of the game, when you get a small lead the best alignment changes based on that situation
    Now, that is valid (that would be my argument at least), but doesn’t that seem to contradict the above statement about hitting in the late innings?
    I would like to see someone point out a reason why not, I’ve just noticed a lot of people seem to have no problem beleiving both statements at the same time.

    • Chip

      If Dunn bats in the top of the seventh or eight and makes the last out, the odds are that he won’t get another plate appearance. Therefore, you can improve your defense dramatically over the other team’s final 9 outs while (probably) not sacrificing any offense at all.

      • radnom

        Ok, that is a specific situation when the stars align that way.

        I’m talking about the idea of late inning defensive replacements in general.

        • Chip

          Well that’s when you use late inning defensive replacements, in specific situations

        • Ed

          But that’s the entire concept. If you’re in a tight game and reach a point where a poor defender is unlikely to further contribute offensively, you replace him with a good defender.

          It just boils down to late in the game, you’re weighing multiple innings of improved defense against zero or maybe one more at bat from the better hitter.

          • radnom

            See below.

    • Chris

      The more important point about high leverage situations is that they all end up averaging out over a long enough period of time. For example, A-Rod was bad in the clutch this year, but great last year. It’s not because he was a better player last year, it was just luck. The defensive replacements are slightly different because you’re actually changing the skill set to better suit the needs at the time.

      Theoretically you could put Gardner in for the first 3 innings, then bring in Dunn, but you lose flexibility in that case. In this specific instance, the best use of their talents would be to have Gardner pinch run for Dunn any time he gets on base in the 7th inning or later. Having Gardner start the game you lose the benefit his speed gives. Also, if there is an injury or ejection, you lose the ability to bring Gardner in unexpectedly if needed.

      • radnom


        The more important point about high leverage situations is that they all end up averaging out over a long enough period of time. For example, A-Rod was bad in the clutch this year, but great last year.

        So you’re saying it is a sample size issue, one seasons worth of situations is not enough to conclude anything but two seasons worth is? Do you have any math to back that up? (Certainty based on sample sizes is proveable).
        Also, how can you tell me for sure that his numbers last year in high leverage situations were due to a statistical anomaly and not to the fact that he was supremely confident from having a ballin’ season.
        Where a player’s head is at DOES MATTER. Check out Baseball Prosepectus’s article about how player’s numbers trend up on contract years, you cant just say all players have the same “mental toughness” and competely discount what the do in big spots.

        But I digress, this was not relevant to my point.


        Theoretically you could put Gardner in for the first 3 innings, then bring in Dunn, but you lose flexibility in that case.

        True, but also not really relevant. Even if the rule was changed and you could bring Gardner back at the end of the game, no manager would start of the game with a defensive replacement.


        The defensive replacements are slightly different because you’re actually changing the skill set to better suit the needs at the time.

        This is fair.

        • ceciguante

          Also, how can you tell me for sure that his numbers last year in high leverage situations were due to a statistical anomaly and not to the fact that he was supremely confident from having a ballin’ season.
          Where a player’s head is at DOES MATTER. Check out Baseball Prosepectus’s article about how player’s numbers trend up on contract years, you cant just say all players have the same “mental toughness” and competely discount what the do in big spots.

          thanks a ton for making this point, radnom. you do indeed see the light. too many on these pages rely on stats as gospel, to the extent that if someone has not reduced some phenomenon to statistical certainty, then that means the thing does not exist…it is then treated on these pages as “luck”, which is purely ridiculous reasoning, and no less ridiculous than ignoring stats altogether.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      I understand what you’re asking, but I honestly have no idea what the answer is. It’s a very good question.

      • steve (different one)

        i think Ed nailed it.

        you improve your chance of winning with almost no downside.

        doing it the other way, with the defense at the beginning, carries downside.

        you burn one of your bench players.

        • radnom

          It is not that there is no downside….you can’t remember a single time the last season where someone was removed for a defensive replacement and that replacement ended up batting? (it happened a bunch).

          Now, you could say that is bad strategy and blame the manager, but the whole point is that doing this could supposedly turn the tide of a CLOSE game. Games in which there is a very real possibility of getting tiesd or going into extras.

          But I’m not sure why everyone is focusing on the “defense in the begining” statement. I wasn’t saying that was a better alternative, I was just contrasting two common points of view.

          • My Pet Goat

            “It is not that there is no downside….you can’t remember a single time the last season where someone was removed for a defensive replacement and that replacement ended up batting? (it happened a bunch).”

            The burden of proof is on you, bro. ‘Happened a bunch’ is not a particularly informative measurement. You just harped on Chris for claiming that two seasons worth of data is more revealing than one, because he didn’t have the math. The assumption that bigger is better in the world of sample sizes is axiomatic.
            What’s not so obvious is your claim. Why don’t you share the number of games that defensive replacements had ABs? What’s the percentage of such an occurrence? How do you define defensive replacement? Close and late? Or is it just any time a replacement level speedster replaces a 32 year old with bad knees?

            • radnom


              The assumption that bigger is better in the world of sample sizes is axiomatic.

              You missed my point here; Chris was claiming that one season was too small of a sample size and could lead to statistical anomoly but that a couple seasons was enough. This can be proven one way or another mathamatically, I was wondering if he hasd any sources to back it up or was just conjecturing.
              I wasn’t harping.

              The burden of proof is on you, bro. ‘Happened a bunch’ is not a particularly informative measurement.

              That is true, and if you completely ignore that line because I don’t have the time nor motivation to look through every box score from last season then that would be more than fair.
              I didn’t mean it as an ironclad statement, I said it in the hopes that the person reading it would recognize the truth in it, but if you don’t then I do not have any proof to offer you.
              I will still maintain however, that some managers will sacrifice offense for defense late in games, there often times is a tradeoff.

  • MJ

    Does anyone know how Dunn rates defensively? I can’t say I ever watched Reds games to know how he was in the field. On the surface, a Dunn-Damon-Nady OF looks to be below average defensively.

    • Mike Pop

      Did you read the post ?

      • MJ

        Yes, I did, But ZR is not the be-all, end-all in defensive metrics.

    • Eric

      Per PMR, Dunn was essentially average this year.

  • CountryClub

    This would be a mistake. The Yanks need to get away from the lumbering, all or nothing type of player.

    • Chip

      He’s not an all or nothing type player. He either hits the ball hard for a double or homerun, gets a walk or strikes out. Two out of those three things are very good for the team. Just imagine how good he’d be with A-Rod behind him forcing pitchers to throw a fastball down the middle when they fall behind in the count. Dunn could make a run at 60 homeruns

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

      This would be a mistake. The Yanks need to get away from the lumbering, all or nothing type of player.

      We are. We’re getting rid of Giambi and Abreu this offseason, we’re getting rid of Damon and Matsui the next. That’s four bad defenders going out, and only one bad defender coming in.

      And for the record, Dunn is better than all of them offensively.

      • radnom

        Is Damon really that bad in left?
        I would say he is one of our best defenders as long as his noodle arm isn’t out in center.

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

          Well, we’re splitting hairs. He’s not a good defender, but he’s not a bad defender. I was just addressing CountryClub’s point that we should stay away from Dunn because he’s a poor defender by pointing out that most of our non-plus defenders are leaving the team.

          • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

            “I was just addressing CountryClub’s point that we should stay away from Dunn because he’s a poor defender by pointing out that most of our non-plus defenders are leaving the team.”

            Hate to put words in CountryClub’s mouth, but I think he was really calling Dunn a “base-clogger” more than just a defensive liability. I think he’s lumping Dunn in with the Giambis of the world and not the Abreus/Damons.

          • Chris C.

            “Well, we’re splitting hairs. He’s not a good defender, but he’s not a bad defender.”

            Honestly, I don’t like anything about Damon in the outfield. Not a single thing. I don’t even like the awkward way he looks when he actually catches balls.
            He makes every play look so damn difficult.

            • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

              But he does still actually get to the ball. That’s still worth a lot.

              • Chris C.

                Remember the game in September where he flat out dropped two semi-routine catches in a span of 4 innings?

                That was enough for me.

                It’s one thing to have no arm……but that took the cake!

                And I say this with great remorse, because from a personal standpoint, Johney Damon is probably the most likable and charitable guy on the team. He does not get nearly enough credit for the work he does for our wounded servicemen at Walter Reed.

                • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

                  Again, I’m not advocating giving Johnny Damon 1200 innings in CF for 2009, but dude, that was ONE GAME. I know it was horrid, but basically every big leaguer has at least one totally shitty, craptastical day in the field each year.

                  Johnny Damon is not a disgustingly putrid defensive outfielder based on one day with two bad plays.

                • Chris C.

                  Okay……………let’s just say that I truly believe that having Dunn in left, Damon in center, and Gardner on the bench would be a tremendously stupid scenario.
                  In fact, the only way you can have a subpar fielder in left is if either Gardner or Melky are in center.

                  But hey, that’s just my opinion.

        • Chris C.

          I think his last game in left, he almost took one off his head…….twice.

      • Chris C.

        “And for the record, Dunn is better than all of them offensively.”

        Dunn is younger than Giambi. That’s about the only difference. Other than that, they’re basically the same type of hitter. And I like Dunn, and certainly wouldn’t be against him coming here. But everything I’ve read about him says that he’s a bit lackadasical, indifferent, and far from being a NY kind of player.

        The Yankees really do need to take that stuff into consideration, because those are usually the kind of players who have a dropoff once they arrive.

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

          Yes, correct, sorry that I didn’t specify. 28-to-32 year old Adam Dunn is a better offensive player than the previous years of Giambi, Matsui, Damon, et. al. that we actually paid for over the past handful decade.

      • Chris C.

        So you want Dunn, Damon, and Nady as your outfielders?

        The Yankees are a glutton for punishment if that turns into reality.

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

          Their offense more than makes up for their defense.

          But yes, I’d still like to move Damon to DH and put Gardner in CF in that scenario.

          • Chris C.

            I love Gardner in center. The guy covers so much ground, and has a pretty decent throwing arm too. It’s hard to quantify how many runs that can save a team.

          • Chris C.

            Their offense more than makes up for their defense.

            Damon is not so great on offense, that it makes up for his defense. Yeah, I know he had a nice BA this season, but it looked better than it was because it was a down year for batting averages in the AL.
            And even Nady wasn’t all that great at the plate for the Yankees.
            Now Dunn…..HE makes up for his poor defense.

        • My Pet Goat

          Stupid argument, The only alternatives bandied about so far swap out Dunn for Swisher, Matsui, or ManRam.

          We have to go to RLYW to see what the difference is between a Dunn, Damon, Nady or a Damon, Melky/Gardbner, Nady combination.

  • A.D.

    I believe, though not mentioned above, that Dunn has a very good throwing arm, which is at least something if he doesn’t have the best range.

    Dunn on a 4 year deal would be nice… FA at 33, get him for his peak, and should provide lots of power and a big bat for a lot less year & money than Tex (also minus the GG defense).

    Personally I’m not a huge Dunn fan, and I’d much rather sign Tex, but if the Yanks announced they signed Dunn to a 4 year deal, I’d be pretty pumped, especially if they then move A-Rod to the 3 hole.

    • Chip

      .354 .387 .381

      Those are Damon, Jeter and Dunn’s career OBP. You want all those guys hitting in front of the best hitter of our generation. Keep A-Rod fourth. I mean it’s not like Posada/Matsui/Cano/Swisher/Nady aren’t very good hitters. Also, with A-Rod hitting behind him, Dunn will win a Silver Slugger at least

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

        Good points, but I’m also interested in giving ARod protection behind him in the order.

        • Chris C.

          “Good points, but I’m also interested in giving ARod protection behind him in the order.”

          Yeah, especially in Yankee Stadium. It would be nice to have a big lefty in back of AROD. I agree with you 100% on that.

      • A.D.

        3 hole is for the best hitter on the team, A-Rod is the best hitter in the game, therefore A-Rod should be the 3-hole hitter.

        It made sense when there was Abreu & A-Rod and you didn’t really see Abreu in the clean-up hole, but Dunn would be a great clean-up hitter.

        In reality, its not some must, its just that I think A-Rod would excel in the 3-hole… finally he gets some protection & the vast majority of Dunn’s at bats are for the 4 & 5 hole… so he’s used to it

        • jsbrendog

          and with that high OBP and arod/damon/jeter on base in front of him it gives mroe chances to the 5 and 6 hitters i feel to drive in runs…

          • Chip

            I can definitely see the logic in that but I’d rather get the high OBP guys in front of my best player. Plus, does A-Rod really need protection? Last year, when the Yankee offense wasn’t that great, he only got intentinoally walked 9 times.

            Also, I think Dunn needs the protection more because he can’t hit the breaking ball like A-Rod can

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

          FWIW, Ruth hit 3rd, Mantle hit 3rd…

          • nmc

            Agree wholeheartedly. Alex’s best seasons have come when he’s followed by a serious hitter (Griffey, E. Martinez, Palmeiro – during the roid rage era, a monster Posada season). His two “bad” Yankee season have come when he’s “protected” by the ghost of Jason Giambi. Whether it’s Teixiera or Dunn or Manny, ARod needs to be protected by a real hitter, not Matsui or even Posada.

            • Chris C.

              “His two “bad” Yankee season have come when he’s “protected” by the ghost of Jason Giambi.”

              The problem I have with this statement is, how different is Dunn from Giambi?
              Giambi in his best years was miles better than Dunn. And Giambi’s “ghost” is about the same as Dunn. I’ll take it, but let’s not make Dunn out to be some kind of flawless superstar.

              • My Pet Goat

                Maybe you’d prefer a 4 year deal for Dunn if it came with some decadorabolin?

        • http://barackobama.com TurnTwo

          agreed… itd be best to go ARod, Dunn, then some combo of Matsui/Cano/Posada most likely.

    • Chris C.

      “I believe, though not mentioned above, that Dunn has a very good throwing arm, which is at least something if he doesn’t have the best range.”

      This is the exact description of Manny Ramirez on defense as well.
      And I’m not sure how much a good throwing arm helps you if you don’t have the baseball in your hand.

      • A.D.

        Well it doesn’t but it’s not like Dunn doesn’t field balls, he doesn’t just watch balls go into the gap and not run after them, he has below average range, much like Abreu, but when he does get to the ball, he can keep runners at bay or gun them down.

        Doesn’t make Dunn better at tracking balls, but it is something to be noted, i’ll take poor range and a good arm over poor range and a noodle arm

        • Chris C.

          I’ll take Dunn in left if you’re going to put Gardner in center.

          But if Dunn is in left and Damon in center, F*** that!

  • Andy In Sunny Daytona

    Mike, I must admit, I am a bit of a baseball traditionalist. Batting averages and low strike out rates are like steak and potatoes to me. With that being said, I also understand that too much red meat and starches are bad for you. Sabermetrics is like tufo, its good for you, but it’s also weird and complicated. I’m trying hard to eat the right info, but it sometimes taste like shit.
    But there is an opening for the big, hulking, slow white guy, so it might as well be Adam Dunn.

    • jsbrendog

      these analogies are witty and entertained me

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

      I’m just a caveman, your strange technological world frightens me. When I see a solar eclipse, like the one I went to last year in Hawaii, I think ‘Oh no! Is the moon eating the sun?’ I don’t know. Because I’m a caveman — that’s the way I think. But what I do know is this: Adam Dunn is a fantastic baseball player.

      And, Plaxico Burress is 100% not guilty of these weapons charges. The defense rests.

      • Andy In Sunny Daytona

        Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer! Loved him. Kind of looked like circa 2004 Johnny Damon.

        I meant tofu, not tufo

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=15305165&ref=profile Doug

      Food metaphors!

      • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

        The dream lives.

    • Chris C.

      “Mike, I must admit, I am a bit of a baseball traditionalist. Batting averages and low strike out rates are like steak and potatoes to me. With that being said, I also understand that too much red meat and starches are bad for you. Sabermetrics is like tufo, its good for you, but it’s also weird and complicated”

      And Home Runs are like chocolate cake! And doubles are like a fruit cup. And triples are like an Ice Cream sundae. And GIDP’s are like brussel sprouts. And walks are like french fries.
      And Adam Dunn is like a box of chocolates……you never know what you’re gonna get!
      Time for lunch!

      “But there is an opening for the big, hulking, slow white guy, so it might as well be Adam Dunn”

      Hal Steinbrener: “BRIAN! Have you done anything yet to fill that opening we have for a big, hulking, slow white guy? I don’t see any adds in the paper from us, and Giambi has already responded to Billy Beane’s ad. Where are we on this?”

      Cashman: “Uhh sir (shuffles papers), we’ve got our best guys on it…….we have inside info that the D-Backs can no longer afford to feed their hulking slow white guy, and see a definite possibility there. It’s not exactly steak and potatoes, but he fits our parameters.
      Big? check. Hulking? check. Slow? check. White Guy? check.”

      • Andy In Sunny Daytona

        ..and sacrifces are like fiber, but sac flies are like apples, they do the same thing but sweeter. HBP is like wasabi, it hurts but it’s worth it.

  • Reggie C.

    I guess if the Yankees go for Adam Dunn , it means we’re not making a run at Teixiera. I like Dunn b/c of the relative low cost, high reward. Yet can anyone imagine the lamentations on this board should Tex find his way to Boston?

    • MJ

      “Yet can anyone imagine the lamentations on this board should Tex find his way to Boston?”

      And justifiably so. Dunn should be Plan B to Teixeira.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

        Agreed.

  • http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/profile.php?id=1383090075 Brad

    I think that if we were to sign Dunn, we should almost definitely trade one of Damon or Nady (preferably Nady, who knows, maybe you nab an innings eater?), while seeing if Seattle has any interest in Matsui (perhaps Matsui for Nintendo DS, straight up!). I love Dunn’s offense, but I want him at DH because a Dunn Damon Nady outfield will kill us on D. Remember, Pettitte’s FIP will not go down if the defense continues to struggle. I also think it’s important to remember that Damon got a lot of starts in CF in the second half, around the same time as Pettitte was getting rocked.

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

      (perhaps Matsui for Nintendo DS, straight up!)

      How about Matsui for an N64 with Mario Kart Racing? Hank can be King Koopa.

      • E-ROC

        Atari says HI!

      • Mike Pop

        Na get 007 Goldeneye.. Best shooting game for the N64

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

          Goldeneye does not give BigBankHank the chance to be King Koopa. Hence, it must be MarioKart Racing.

          • Andy In Sunny Daytona

            Melky/Gardner combo is like that Wii game that those women play in that commercial where they go shopping.

  • jsbrendog

    BUT HE HAS NO DESIRE TO PLAY THAT GAME AND IS A BASE CLOGGER!!1!!!1
    JP SAID SO!!

    i was not big on dunn, no idea why, but after being an adult and dismissing the stubborness and looking at the numbers and what not I think Dunn for a 4 year deal through his age 33 season is absolutely a score. He puts up monster numbrs in front of Arod suring his prime and then someone else will be stupid enough to give him another 3 or 4+ yr contract after that for what he did with us and we’ll prob get 2 draft picks (touchy subject on here right now I know)

    soooooooooo I like Dunn because he fills an offensive need this year and as with swisher provides roster flexibility going forward where he can be a productive DH statistically but is not anchored to that because he is still young and mobile enough to play a serviceable left field. anddd the fact that we have no OF really under contract past 09 other than swisher who will be the 1b so in reality none.

    i like it better than manny and i likeit better than tex. An offseason with CC and Dunn would be a coup I feel in the long run. Unortunately there still leaves a hole for one more pitcher which i pray is not lowe or burnett. or john “how the hell do i win games with shitty peropheral stats especially for a bad offensive anaheim team” garland

    the answer is simple. melky and IPK for edinson volquez.

    • Glen L

      only if they also throw in Bruce

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

      There’s no way they’d trade us Edinson Volquez for Melky and IPK, not after the dude was almost ROOKIE OF THE YEAR!!!!

      • jsbrendog

        when i first started reading this i was like, did he really just take me seriously? then i finished and was like, touche.

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

          I smell what you’re cooking.

  • NYFan50

    Mike, given that they are both defensive liabilities, wouldn’t it just make a ton more sense to just pay the extra $5-$8M surcharge for 3 years and sign Manny instead of Dunn (assuming he could be had for 3…I don’t see anyone going 4 years)? I love Dunn and all, and Manny has been a hated enemy for quite some time, but I’d rather pay the extra cash and take Manny instead.

    If Manny requires 4 years I pass, but I don’t see anyone going 4 years. And in that case, I don’t see any reason to pick up Dunn over Manny.

    • Brooklyn Ed

      minus Dunn’s Ks and bad defense, he’s the next good power hitter after Manny and Teixiera. In Manny’s case, Boras and Manny wants more years and money, and Manny is already 36. If he was 26, then that would be a different story. Dunn is only 29.

  • http://barackobama.com TurnTwo

    Can anyone give a little more insight into Dunn’s ability to play 1B?

    I think i remember reading that he doesnt like to play 1B somewhere, but cant remember.

    He might not be great, but would it be feasible to say you could go Damon-Gardner-Swisher in the OF, let Dunn play 1B, and DH Matsui?

    … then move Nady in a package with some young pitching for a developing prospect, or an established arm.

    • http://barackobama.com TurnTwo

      and considering Bobby Abreu was able to handle (relatively speaking) the small field in RF, could Dunn do the same, even for a season, and then move to DH after Matsui is gone?

    • Brooklyn Ed

      Perhaps you read it on wikipedia?

      In December 2005, Reds manager Jerry Narron informed the press that, due to the trade of popular first baseman Sean Casey to the Pittsburgh Pirates for left-handed pitcher Dave Williams, Dunn would be moving to first base for the 2006 season. However, with the acquisition of free agent first baseman Scott Hatteberg (who played for the Oakland Athletics in 2005) during spring training and the March 20 trade of outfielder Wily Mo Peña to the Boston Red Sox for right-handed pitcher Bronson Arroyo, the plan to convert Dunn was scrapped (Dunn had mentioned that he would rather not play 1B also) and, to date, he has only played 108 games there.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A.....on_changes

      • http://barackobama.com TurnTwo

        i think i read it on MLB Trade Rumors, which prob linked it from whatever story that came from in the local paper in Cincy… but i thought i remember it being more recent than 2006.

        but that would make sense… wonder if he’s more open to it now then he was then.

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

          Getting paid more and being on a winning team, instead of the Reds, can make you a lot more comfortable doing stuff you didn’t do before.

          • http://barackobama.com TurnTwo

            certainly, but then it goes back to my initial question, which pertained to how passable is he really at 1B?

  • leftylarry

    I could live with Dunn or live very nicely without another swing and miss player who hits 3 HR’s in the 14-5 games but can’t get a line single with 2 outs and men on base in a 2-1 game.
    Why anyone would want Johnny Damon in CF when we have a young Lenny Dykstra type (though without the Roids) in Gardner I can’t understand.
    What did Gardner bat, .320 over his last 40 at bats, shwoing an ability to get clutch hits and make big plays in Centerfield? Jeter can cover up the weak arm like he covered up Bernies for years also.
    Give Gardner a chance.I don’t think he’ll disappoint and the 50 bases he’ll steal even if he hits only .270 will win us some games right there.

    • My Pet Goat

      Lefty likes everything that has ever been discredited by the SABR community. This is a real gem to find on a blog discussion.

      Also, is Gardner, like Nails, an excellent day trader and friend of Jim Cramer? Cause when this scrappy .270 with 50 SBs thing doesn’t work out, I’ll sleep better at night knowing he can still support himself.

    • Chip

      Gardner actually has a very good throwing arm. I do think he deserves a chance to show what he’s capable of this season. That being said, I’d imagine he’s not the starting centerfielder but still ends up playing over half the games due to guys getting days off. I mean he’s pretty much the replacement for Damon, Matsui, Nady, Dunn (if we get him) and Swisher’s days off and soembody always gets hurt for an extended period of time

    • Andy In Sunny Daytona

      When was Dykstra not on roids?

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

        2007. (well, most of March of 2007.)

  • christopher

    thank you so much for finally higlighting Dunn. Ervyone makes ryan howard out to be great and this guy is maybe a step behind. he will be the biggest and best FA on the market. I would love to see him and Manny in next years lienu-up but we cant have everyone.

    the one other suggestion i would have for the team is rocco baldelli. he can probably only play 75 games a year, but would give us roster flexibility and will most likely take a small contract acknowledging his medical weakness…also do not forget that he kills lefties something the yanks have struggled with in recent years.

    Another question: I know he would be tough to trade, but would milton btadley be a better option at DH than Matsui. Seems to me that this guy has superstar potential if he could stay healty. to me its worth the gamble

    • whozat

      “Seems to me that this guy has superstar potential”

      Bradley has more than superstar potential, he has superstar numbers. When healthy. Which is seldom.

      He was a full-time DH this season, and still couldn’t stay off the DL. He also wanted to play the field more. He also wants a multi-year deal.

      He’s also a complete headcase. Look it up. He tried to go fight a reporter last year for saying something bad about him. This is not a player that will thrive in NY.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

        And, he’ll require us to surrender a pick. He’s a Type A.

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph P.

          Nah. Bradley’s a Type B.

          • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

            Oh, my bad. Makes him a bit more palatable, but I’ll still pass.

            • Andy In Sunny Daytona

              I want him to sign just so PeteAbe can ask him a stupid question. Then Milton can squash his head like a tomato.

              • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

                You have convinced me. Let’s sign Bradley now.

                • Chris C.

                  The only time I want to see Milton Bradley in NY is if a family gathering turns into a game of Monopoly!

                • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

                • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

                  Heh, I didn’t even have to click on it. I just saw the big green button and started laughing.

                  If only I could find a nice tumbleweed GIF.

        • christopher

          type B actually

  • Axl

    How much do you realistically think it would take to sign Dunn…I’m guessing the 3 years proposed won’t cut it…do you offer him 4?? With his build…who knows he’ll be able to go 4 healthy and still producing…but who knows…

    • http://barackobama.com TurnTwo

      4/$48 million?

      thatd be a relative steal, no?

    • Chris C.

      Right. And Joe Charboneau lasted three seasons. And Gabe Kapler never even reached his prime before gassing out. And Travis Hafner is in the minors.

      You can always tell by a guy’s build.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

        Dave Winfield and Frank Thomas say hello.

  • Peter Lacock

    It disappoints me that so many have not learned the lessons of the past and choose to ignore evidence selectively when it suits them. Adam Dunn is not a good player and does not fit the mold of the more athletic, good defense and cheaper type that we have all been told will fill the Yanks roster under Cashman. I guess chicks love the longball. Adam Dunn is a good power hitter but he is not a good player. He will not even get a ‘sniff’ from the Yanks. C-money is too smart for that.

    • christopher

      is ryan howard not a good play. Compare last year’s stats sometimes. first you are letting strikepuits cloud your vision. Second he has played on some pretty poor offenses, and third he is not a bad athlete.

      drinking the JP Ricchardi koolaid is not good for you health

    • My Pet Goat

      More athletic, good defense, and cheaper type = good player? Is this a universal constant or are there exceptions?

      • steve (different one)

        there is one exception: Jason Varitek.

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

          Jason Varitek doesn’t teabag the ladies… he potato-sacks them.

          • Jack

            Jason Varitek floats like a butterfly, and stings like a Tomahawk cruise missle.

            • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

              Jason Varitek destroyed the periodic table, because he only recognizes the element of surprise.

  • christopher

    you will think i am nuts for this but presumably the yankees can get CC, Dunn, Manny, and Sheet.

    CC – 25 million eventually when all things said and done
    Dunn – in a depressed market 4 years @ 16
    Manny – 25 million for 3 with a vestin option for 4
    Sheets – injury problems could mean getting him at 13million for 3 years

    Attempt to get CC, Dunn, or Manny to backload some of their 2009 salary until damon is gone.

    Trade Matsui – if he shows he is healthy than you may get a decent prospect, utility guy, or just cash

    Assuming that the yankees have roughly 70 million to play with:
    Salries equal 79 million. Take matui’s salary out of eqaution and you are at about 65 million leaving room for arbitration raises and maybe if hal is in a good mood a decent bat off the bench – the team cannot forget the bench – too many years of it being not too good

    • Tooch

      I’m pretty sure you can only add 3 Type A free agents

      CC + Dunn + Manny + Sheets = 4 Type A free agents

      • christopher

        is that really a rule?

        • A.D.

          You can only sign a certain % of type A free agents

  • dan

    I thought Mike was allergic to stats. From the RAB guide to the galaxy stats:

    “Over the course of this season, and hopefully many more to come, we at River Ave. Blues (and by “we” I mean Ben and me; Mike doesn’t believe in this VooDoo bullshit) will be using various statistics to back up our arguments.”

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      I’m coming around on them. Once I took the time to understand them, it became pretty obvious that they were far better indicators of production than any of the traditional stats.

      I still think statistical analysis has no place when it comes to evaluating minor league or amateur prospects. With young players it’s about the process, not the results.

      • whozat

        Not even stuff like K:BB ratio? LD%?

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

          K/BB is the only one that really matters. At the lower levels it’s tough to trust, because there are so many players with no plate discipline and pitcher’s with no control. High-A is were K/BB starts to come into play for me, but even still not that much.

          • whozat

            Oh, you’re talking about evaluating really raw guys. Yeah, that makes sense.

            Though, I would figure that high walk rates for a pitcher are a red flag no matter what level he’s at. Though, certainly, for an 18 year old kid it’s much less of a big deal than for a 23 year old.

      • dan

        Viva la Revolution!

  • Tooch

    I think the only way you can handle taking on Dunn is if you somehow unload Matsui. Not that I necessarily think you’ll get much for Matsui, but I’m not willing to put Damon in center and Dunn in left.

    If you replace Matsui with Dunn as your DH, I think you’re left with a very strong line-up, especially when you consider all statistical aspects. There’s a lot of flexibility, but here’s how I’d do it:

    Damon
    Jeter
    A-Rod
    Dunn
    Posada
    Swisher
    Nady
    Cano
    Gardner

  • ko

    Looking at this lineup. Without Teixeira and Abreu, its the worst Yankee lineup I’ve seen in twenty years. Dunn and Swisher are strikeout machines who Yankees fans will grow to hate quickly. Gardner can’t hit – the last thing you need is an automatic out when you’ve got a weak lineup to start with. There’s no guarantee that Posada won’t be your DH this year. That leaves you with a nucleus of Jeter, A-Rod, Nady and Cano – not bad, but with their own question marks. If I’m Cashman, loooking at this prospective lineup, I’m putting piles of cash together for Teixeira for sure and, I guess, Manny if you can’t re-sign Abreu.
    The Yankees have money to burn, I recommend putting it to use.

    • whozat

      “The Yankees have money to burn, I recommend putting it to use.”

      If that were so, then they would have happily offered arby to Pettitte and Abreu.

      And, frankly, who cares if fans will “grow to hate” Swisher and Dunn. If they’re getting on base and driving the ball, they would help the team put up runs. And that’s what helps win.

    • Chip

      Damon OPS+ 118
      Jeter OPS+ 102
      Dunn OPS+ 129
      ARod OPS+ 150
      Matsui OPS+ 108
      Posada OPS+ 103
      Cano OPS+ 86
      Nady OPS+ 128
      Swisher OPS+ 92

      That’s an above average lineup with only Nady having a career year and Posada, Matsui, Cano and Swisher having the worse seasons of their career. Look at the wOPS post above and this could be an amazing lineup

    • jsbrendog

      they do not and will not sign abreu. thank god

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

      Dunn and Swisher are strikeout machines who Yankees fans will grow to hate quickly.

      Other “strikeout machines” that Yankees fans hated:
      Babe Ruth
      Mickey Mantle
      Reggie Jackson
      Dave Winfield
      Jorge Posada
      Bernie Williams
      Derek Jeter
      Paul O’Neill

      • Mike Pop

        They all sucked

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

          Totally. Mickey Mantle struck out, what, 1700 times? He blows chunks. They shoulda DFA’d that strikeout-making bum. I’m going to go dig up his grave and slap his dead corpse in the face for sucking so much.

          • Chris C.

            LMAO!!!! Oh, that brought back some fond memories!

            Remember when Pedro dug up Babe Ruth, propped him up in the batters box, then nailed him in the skull?
            Then he got all red-faced because he realized he accidentally propped him in the righty batters box?
            Ahhh, good times.

  • Bill

    There’s no room for another DH on this team. Especially one that will want a long term deal. Dunn is among the worst defensive OFs and is even worse at 1B. While he has excellent power and a nice approach at the plate there is simply no room for him on this team.

    I’d only sign him if he came extremely cheap (i.e. 10M per or less at no more than 4 years). Although there’s little to no chance of that happening even with this economy.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph P.

      “Dunn is among the worst defensive OFs and is even worse at 1B.”

      Empty rhetoric. The Dunn defense thing is just a line that has been repeated so often that people take it as fact. A few metrics have Dunn’s defense being much improved in 2008. Plus, I’ve talked to a few Red bloggers who say they thought his defense had improved, and that was before seeing the stats.

      And I’m glad you were able to make a snap analysis on Dunn’s ability to play first, considering, you know, he hardly ever plays it.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

        And again, Dunn defensively can be atrocious, as long as he continues to pound the tar out of the ball, which he probably will, as he’s fairly athletic and still yet to enter his prime.

        Signing a defensively challenged good hitter at 32 is scary, yes. Signing a defensively challenged great hitter at 28 is much, much less scary.

    • A.D.

      Just a redic comment, sure he’s no gold glover, but thisyear he was better defensively (zone rating) in LF than Lee, Manny, Bay, Ibanez, Soriano, Quentin, Willingham, and Delmon Young.

      In 2007, 05 & 04 he was better than Matsui… no one was going nuts on how terrible Matsui was playing the OF.

      If the Yankees traded for Jason Bay no one would be complaining about how he’s a terrible defender, but yet he’d be worse than Adam Dunn.

      • steve (different one)

        sure, but he’s Canadian. how bad could he be?

        • Bo

          Bays OF defense is completely tossed away because he plays LF at Fenway. That wall made Manny look decent.

  • Bruno

    Why does everyone here INSIST on putting Matsui in the starting lineup? Because he makes $13m? He’s 34/35 years old with 2 bad kness, and in the last year of his contract. Let him come off the bench, pinch-hit and rest guys occasionaly. Damon, Gardner, Nady in the OF with Swish at 1B and Dunn DH woud kill.

    Damon-LF
    Jeter-SS
    A-Rod-3B
    Dunn-DH
    Posada-C
    Nady-RF
    Cano-2B
    Swish-1B
    Gardner-CF

    Matsui
    Melky
    Ransom
    Molina

    CC
    Wang
    Sheets
    Pettite
    Joba

    • A.D.

      They probably want to start Matsui because he’s under contract, has a 123 career OPS+, and still put up a 108 OPS+ last year despite hitting on 2 bad knees. Say what you want, but the guy has shown he can hit.

      • Bruno

        If Gardner can hit 90-95 OPS+ with his defense, speed etc I think the trade-off is well worth it. Plus, we’d be building for the FUTURE, instead of relying on the past.

        • whozat

          Yes. Playing a lesser player that projects as a 4th OFer is building for the future.

          Brett Gardner is new and fast. That’s all. He, too, K’s a lot. For a guy with no power, that’s scary.

          It’d be hard for him to put up a 95 OPS+ without a very high OBP, and I just don’t see him replicating his .400 OBP here in the bigs.

          • Chris C.

            “Brett Gardner is new and fast. That’s all. He, too, K’s a lot. For a guy with no power, that’s scary.”

            Except that the more experience he gained on the major league level, the better he looked at the plate.

            “It’d be hard for him to put up a 95 OPS+ without a very high OBP, and I just don’t see him replicating his .400 OBP here in the bigs”

            Like I give a crap. If he has a .350 – .360 OBP, covers center like a tarp, and steals 60 bags a year, I’ll do backflips.

          • Old Ranger

            Sorry to disagree with that part about Brett, look at his stats the 2nd time around. He has always started slow (as has been posted) and slowly built up to respectable numbers. Why should we expect him to change now, he has shown better gap power(we have gone over the reason before) and the strike zone has come back to what it should be, so he should pick-up more walks. I like the OF of; Brett-CF, Nady-RF, Johnny LF and Dunn-DH/RF (in Yankee stadium).

            • Chris C.

              Sorry to disagree with that part about Brett, look at his stats the 2nd time around. He has always started slow (as has been posted) and slowly built up to respectable numbers.

              Always? As in, his ONE year with the Yankees?

              I’m not interested in what he did in the minors when he was still learning the professional game.

              I mean geez, let’s NOT give the kid a chance, and instead stick the same old crap out ther knowing full well they’ll get mediocre to poor results. Sounds like a great plan moving forward, as they look to recreate a new Yankee dynasty!

              • Old Ranger

                As of right now, the only choice we have for CF is BRETT! Who else can play a very good defencive CF? Ever hear “Strong up the middle”? That means “D” up the middle, we have Jeter, Cano and Posada to do the heavy lifting. Give the pitchers a chance to win some games, this kid will save and win more games playing CF then Johnny would.
                When Brett came up the 2nd time he hit with more gap power, avg, clutch and OBP was better…as you stat guys say, “Stats don’t lie”.
                All the rhetoric about how Brett can’t hit is based on what? Someone looks at 50 ABs and says; “He can’t hit enough to play with the big boys.” Hell, Mickey was sent back down the first time, not all players come up smoking hot, it takes them time to adjust…patience is a virtue, lets show some, give the guy a chance.
                Hay, I don’t like Dunn but, I am willing to give him a chance to show what he can do, why not show the same for anyone else. 27/09.

  • Bo

    This seems like a pipe dream because Cashman doesn’t have the creativity for this kind of move and he openly has talked about getting more athletic.

    • Bruno

      Dunn was athletic enough to play Rf for Arizona, and he is more athletic than Matsui, Giambi, and maybe even Abreu.

    • steve (different one)

      what are you even arguing?

      do you think signing Dunn is “creative”??

      i wouldn’t call signing a guy who has hit at least 40 HR’s for 5 straight years “creative”. it’s actually pretty “obvious” and uncreative.

      there is literally nothing you can’t complain about. as if trying to get more athletic is a bad idea.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

        All things Cashman = bad

    • Chris C.

      This seems like a pipe dream because Cashman doesn’t have the creativity for this kind of move and he openly has talked about getting more athletic.

      Yeah, Cashman has no creativity. By the way, who was that guy who managed to pry AROD from Texas for a certain Yankees who had just struck out 27 times in the postseason, while also getting Texas to pick up the tab of 9 mill per year of AROD’s contract?
      Who was that un-creative fellow?

  • dkidd

    off topic, but i had to share this daily news reader comment…

    eli grossman Dec 2, 2008 8:43:44 AM Report Offensive Post
    GuiseppeFranco – Yankee no longer get best free agent player. Mr. A-Rod with all of his contract perks and no have to travel with team and Mr. Jeter who isolate you in clubhiouse if you no kiss his buttocks have many jealous hatred from other player in league. Remember Mr. Jeter AGAIN voted most overrate player in MLB for how many year running by MLB players in Sport Illustrate magazine. Mr. A-Rod was come in second place. This can be huge factor for free agent except only the most greedy like Roger Clemen cheater and the like.

  • dkidd

    also: i like dunn, but not at the expense of tex. sign tex, cc, bring back andy at a discount, and i’m happy

  • Mike Pop

    For what its worth… He is friends with CC

    • Bruno

      The more the merrier

      • Jack

        CC seems more jolly than merry.

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

          It’s the fat.

          CC = Black Santa

  • Chuck

    Im not for signing Dunn. I dont want to go too deep into stats because someone will have some stat that will prove such and such. But as I see it players that strike out a ton are not good for rallies.
    He may hit the ball damn hard and gets a solid amount of walks and hrs but at least from my perspective a string of hits does more for a teams confidence and performance than walks and a home run. Dont get me wrong he hits a lot of home runs and is patient. But yeah I do think batting average is important and I don’t get where this emphasis on that it is overrated gets its support. Yeah it may have had too much weight in judging players… but hits are pretty important. Sorry for not flushing the argument out very well but I think you can guess what I am saying. I dont think Dunn’s positives outweigh the negatives.. they just simply balance out.
    Texeira is a better option or even sticking it out with Swisher since we did get him for next to nothing.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph P.

      “But as I see it players that strike out a ton are not good for rallies.”

      What’s worse for a rally, a strikeout or a double play?

      • Chuck

        i know your mocking me but yeah. Double play. Neither is any good.

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

      “I dont want to go too deep into stats because someone will have some stat that will prove such and such. “ = “what I’m about to say has no basis in any reality other than the narrative in my head, and it’s probably illogical and lacking any critical thought or self-analysis of deep-seated thought biases that I’m reluctant to question internally, but fuck it, here goes…”

      • Jacob

        Funniest thing I have ever read on any message board in my entire life.

      • Chuck

        you know if you want to ignore whatever I have to say the next time I wouldnt mind. Sorry I am modest in my arguments. Didnt mean to insult your stat beliefs.

    • Chris C.

      “But yeah I do think batting average is important and I don’t get where this emphasis on that it is overrated gets its support.”

      Robby Cano had a higher batting average than Adam Dunn!
      I’ll say it again………ROBBY CANO HAD A HIGHER BATTING AVERAGE THAN ADAM DUNN!

      • Glen L

        with a much lower OBP .. but lets not pay attention to how often they get on base .. only how often they get on base via A HIT

        • Chris C.

          Yes, I know champ. I was mocking the guy who puts tons of stock in batting averages.

          • Chuck

            well I mean its not the only thing. I do not think I put a ton of stock in BA. I just noticed you all seem to be soo educated with stats and find justifications for players like Dunn while maneuvering around it. Walks are great so are home runs. But a stronger team is always the one who gets on base, plays small ball and lets things happen. I dont think Dunn is bad, just not sure it would pan out as well as the stats would indicate.
            I really don’t think what I had to say was that stupid if you actually were somewhat forgiving reading it instead of trying to rip me a new one.

            I also really liked Cano before his stupid plays at the end of last year. I supported him through the first half because it was at least obvious he was trying. But if I was willing to pay to watch those last few games, still having some hope for the yanks since they hadn’t been eliminated, but he basically just laid down. Fuck him. Find someone else if he can net us something pretty good. Im not infuriated that we’re keeping him, especially if he does better. Ill eat my words happily.

            As for Dunn, I just hope the yankees would stay clear of adding more players that are just barely hanging on before dhing. I think some more athleticism would be nice. Great he walks, hits home runs, but Id say a better all around player like texeira is a far greater upgrade from swisher than Dunn.

            • steve (different one)

              But a stronger team is always the one who gets on base

              and Dunn is really good at getting on base.

              Great he walks, hits home runs, but Id say a better all around player like texeira is a far greater upgrade from swisher than Dunn.

              Chuck, my man, EVERYONE here agrees that Teixeira would be a much better player than Dunn. everyone.

              but……..the Yankees may not be able to get Teixeira. if they can’t, Dunn might be a nice alternative.

              if you have 2 players, and they are both good at getting on base and hitting HRs, but one guy hasalso hits for average, SURE give me the average guy.

              no one disagrees with you there. but, sometimes you have to accept the flaws of a certain player because they are more affordable.

              no one here is arguing Dunn over Teixeira, they are arguing Dunn over doing nothing….

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  • Mike

    Dunn is a DH! His glove and range are Giambi-like….ugh! plus lots of k’s, he is not a great fit for this teamand what cash seems to be going for. Id spend the extra and overpay for tex personally. Plus I really don’t even like Tex, but the more I think about it, he may be our best option b/c of on base plus battting average.

    damon
    jeter
    tex
    arod
    posada
    nady
    cano
    matsui
    swisher

    Then go out and get some starters and one more bullpen arm for depth.

    • Chris C.

      Dunn is a DH! His glove and range are Giambi-like….ugh! plus lots of k’s, he is not a great fit for this teamand what cash seems to be going for. Id spend the extra and overpay for tex personally.

      Personally, huh? Kick in a few thousand? Okay, so Teixeira’s contract offer from the Yankees will be 7 years for $140,003,254, plus a few silver dollars, carnival slugs, and Indian head pennies.

      “Plus I really don’t even like Tex, but the more I think about it, he may be our best option b/c of on base plus battting average.”

      You don’t like the guy, but you want to overpay for him?
      Can you even believe what you’re typing?

      • Mike

        Fiirst off it is not our money, so who cares how much trhey end up spending.

        Second, Tex has not won any big games or really done outstanding at any point. He hits home runs and has a very good glove. I do not see this guy as a 100 million+ man, but I know thats what it will take. I know there is a big difference in their contracts, but that does not come out of my wallet. And truthfully, there will be no better option at 1b for awhile, so why not…

        My ranks of firstbasemen:
        Pujols
        Morneau
        D. Lee
        Tex
        A. Gonzales
        Howard
        Fielder

        I do not see us getting the top 3, so why not go for number 4…plus it keeps him away from boston which will be an added plus

  • Old Ranger

    I like this line-up;
    Johnny-LF
    jeter-SS
    tex-1st
    arod3rd
    posada-C
    cano-2nd
    matsui-DH
    swisher-RF
    Gardner-CF
    Then go out and get one/two starters, one would do.
    Or; Johnny, Jeter, Arod, Dunn-DH etc.

  • ko

    Throw Abreu in there instead of Swisher and get a center fielder who can hit and replace matsui with Nady and move Damon to DH and you’ve got yourself a decent lineup.

    • Old Ranger

      Bobby-RF
      Johnny-DH
      Nady-LF
      FA-CF name one better then Brett (that we can get). Brett .290+BA, .387 OBP the 2nd time around and won 6 games with his hitting and “D”. (Stats people, please check my stats, I think they are right). Ok, I will not mention him anymore, thank you guys anyhow…I too hope to have a better CF then I think he will be, sure would help the team. 27/09.

  • Joseph M

    Two words, Manny Ramirez. Dunn is another Giambi only younger. Ramirez changes the entire tone of the line up, get Ramirez, put him at DH, and get pitching.

  • http://Chas Chas

    Is this serious? Dunn won’t cost a draft pick if you have one which is to assume we will not sign any other type As, not likely. So that is a moot point all together and adding another DH is not on our list of things to do, bad idea. Even if we wanted him, he not being offered Arb is bad for the yankees because we would not have a first pick after signing CC, Burnett, Lowe, or Sheets and would be competing against teams that wouldn’t want to lose theirs.

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

      Not only is this factually erroneous, it’s poorly thought out and full of false premises.

      Congratulations on saying nothing.

  • Macphisto

    One word: Shift. Players who induce the shift have a hard time getting that clutch hit. If it doesn’t go out of the park it is usually a rally killing double play. How many times did we watch Giambi fall victim to the shift and kill rallies. Especially this year when he had less pop. To say Tex is only marginally better than Dunn I think is a stretch. I would have to look at the close and late numbers but I can almost bet there is a difference. No more dead pull left handed hitters. That should be a mantra.

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  • MikeD

    Please, no! We have to move away from these type of players.

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