Open Thread: Tex vs Giambi

Earlier today I posted a breakdown of how much value the 2008 Yanks’ offense provided, and shortly after that I received an email from reader Diony, basically asking how much of an upgrade Mark Teixeira is over Giambi. Using the same Fangraphs data I used in the post earlier today, let’s take a look.

Mark Teixeira
Batting: +45.7 / +35.0
Fielding: +11.7 / +2.1
Replacement: +22.8 / +22.1
Positional: -12.2 / -11.7
Value Runs: +68.0 / +47.6
Value Wins: 6.8 / +4.8
Value: $30.5M / $19.6M

Jason Giambi
Batting: +21.5 / +19.9
Fielding: -1.8 / -2.6
Replacement: +18.8 / +16.1
Positional: -12.0 / -11.1
Value Runs: +26.5 / +22.2
Value Wins: +2.7 / +2.2
Value: $11.9 / $8.8M

The first number is the player’s 2008 stats, the second number (after the slash) are their average over the last three years. The most cited difference between the two players is defense. Last year there was a 13.5 run difference between the two, nearly one and a half wins. Over the last three years that difference is just 4.7 runs, but remember that Giambi is going to 38 in a week while Tex is still in his prime. It’s not unreasonable to expect Tex to maintain that 13.5 run difference. For arguments’ sake, let’s round it down to 10 runs, or one win.

Offensively, the difference between the two is Tex’s ability to hit for average, which also gives him an advantage in slugging percentage. As you can see, Tex has been more than 15 runs better than Giambi over the last three years, and nearly 25 runs better last year. If you want to split the middle and say Tex is expected to be 20 runs more productive than Giambi next year, I think that’s fair.

So add it up: 10 runs (defense) + 20 runs (offense) = 30 run upgrade, or 3 wins

Three wins is a ginormous upgrade. It’s ever so slighty more than the difference between Marco Scutaro and A-Rod last year, and just a tad less than the difference between Melky and Matt Kemp. Sure the homer and RBI numbers might not look much different, and obviously this is just a quick-and-dirty analysis, but don’t kid yourself. Replacing 38 year old Jason Giambi with 29 year old Mark Teixeira is a massive upgrade for the 2009 Yankees.

Use this as your open thread for the evening. The Knicks are in Charlotte, and the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl (Ok. State vs Oregon) is on as well. I’ll be watching House. Make sure you check out Blueseat Blogs as well, I’m filling in this week while Dave’s on vacation. Okay, you know the routine. Have fun, play nice.