Some fuzzy math with the Yanks payroll

So that should wrap up the Peavy rumors
Heyman: Yanks in on Teixeira, ManRam

Over the past week, as the Yankees doled out the dollars for A.J. Burnett and CC Sabathia, many pundits noted that despite these behemoth contracts, the Yankees are actually shedding payroll. Because the contracts for Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Mike Mussina, and Kyle Farnsworth/Ivan Rodriguez have expired, that means the Yankees have around $80 million to spend if they keep their payroll consistent with 2008. Since the average annual values of the Sabathia ($23 million) and Burnett ($16.5 million) contracts add up to just $39.5 million, many folks presume that the Yankees could conceivably spend another $40.5 million on their 2009 payroll and still not break the $209 million mark of 2008.

This is fuzzy math. It’s nice to think this way. It gives us the impression that the Yankees can dole out enormous contracts and still have a payroll below the $200 million mark. That, however, is not the reality of the situation. This does not take into account arbitration raises, which are due to Chien-Ming Wang, Xavier Nady, and Brian Bruney. It also ignores raises in a player’s salary. For instance, Alex Rodriguez will make $5 million more in 2009 than he did in 2008. Robinson Cano gets a $3 million raise. They’ve added Swisher. They’ve added Damaso Marte‘s salary. All that adds up, too.

Thankfully, I’ve saved a spreadsheet which documents the salary of each Yankees player. This completely debunks the meme that the Yankees have plenty of money left for the 2009 payroll.

2009 Payroll

Player Sal.
A-Rod $32
Sabathia $14*
Teixeira $20**
Jeter $20
Burnett $16.5
Mo $15
Jorge $13.1
Damon $13
Matsui $13
Swisher $5.3
Wang $5
Marte $3.75
Nady $6.55
Cano $6
Molina $1
Bruney $1.25
Melky $1.4
Pettitte $5.5
Total $192.35


*AAV of contract
** Arbitration estimate

I’ll keep this up to date as we start to see actual salary numbers for the reserve-clause players and the arbitration guys. As Mike has noted before, the team also has to pay the entire 40-man roster a certain salary, though that might just be a five-figure amount.

In any case, when you consider things like Andrew Brackman‘s and Kei Igawa’s contracts, plus buyouts for Pavano and Giambi, the payroll is up around the $190 million mark. If the Yankees spent that $40.5 million that so many claim they have, the payroll would clearly shatter even the team’s own record.

Please, going forward, do not base an argument on the money coming off the books. That’s just not a good way of calculating how much money the Yankees have. Other commitments change that value. As you can see from the table above, the Yankees signing another bat means raising the payroll, once again, over $200 million. Not that I’m opposed to that. Not at all. In fact, it will only rile up the Yankee haters, and I sustain myself on their ire. In fact, if the Yankees do win it all, I will bask in the misery of others as they shout at the top of their lungs that the Yankees bought another championship.

Now that we have the payroll issue straight, do you think that affects the Yankees willingness to spend on a bat? Or do you think they’ll break the bank in a time when other teams are pinching pennies?

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So that should wrap up the Peavy rumors
Heyman: Yanks in on Teixeira, ManRam
  • jsbrendog

    I think they’ll stand pat and see what shakes out. they have the means to make a deal but won’t unless it makes sense.

    i also give it 3-5 threads before someone uses the $$ argument because this thread has been relegated to the bottom of the page and they didn’t bopther reading it.

    ive got my facepalms ready

  • TurnTwo

    I think it hinges on Pettitte.

    If he accepts the $10 million, then they dont go in on a bigger bat, and instead opt for Cameron as a stop-gap.

    If Pettitte does not accept, or goes elswhere, that money is getting spent somewhere on someone.

  • Glen L

    I believe that if one of the corner outfield sluggers is still sitting around unemployed by the end of january, the yanks will swoop in with a reasonable offer … otherwise, outside of possibly trading for cameron, the yanks will probably stand pat

  • A.D.

    Adding up Cots right now, the Yanks are at 166 and change for the 40 man, that doesn’t include Igawa, buyouts, or arb raises.

    • http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_postseason.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=121250&statType=2 Slugger27

      are buyouts included when calculating team payrolls? i mean obviously, the team spends that money, but is it added to the payroll? or is it just money they have to spend thats not counted, a la igawas posting fee?

      • A.D.

        I don’t think it is, but it is still money the Yanks have to spend

        • troy

          And it should count against the 2008 payroll since the buyout was already paid (I think)

          • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            Yeah, I was wondering that myself… do buyouts count against the publicly listed “total payroll” figures, and if so, for what year? Do the Pavano and Giambi buyouts get retroactively counted against 2008 figures, or rolled forward to 2009 (since we’re basically paying them not to play for us)…

            And what about luxury tax calculations?

            I’d love to know good answers to this question.

            • http://headshotsonly.wordpress.com The Third Yip-Yip, Formerly the Yankee Clipper

              I think the only the thing considered “payroll” is salary obligations, whereas buyouts are treated like bonuses, i.e. they have to be paid, but don’t show up on the payroll. Ditto payment obligations to/from other clubs ($1MM for Rasner, etc.)

            • rbizzler

              My understanding is that buyouts count on the previous season’s payroll. I have no way of verifying this other then that is what I remember when the annual press release concerning MLB final payrolls is issued. Otherwise known as another occasion to bash the Yankees for their spending.

              • DonnieBaseballHallofFame aka they guy who has well documented history of belligerent thickheadedness and anti-intellectual character assassinations

                I may be wrong but I thought they counted against the current years payroll. Like we were paying them NOT to play for us this year.

                Anyone? Anyone? Fry? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

    • A.D.

      If you add

      Igawa: 4
      Giambi: 5
      Pavano: ~2
      Wang: 1
      Nady: 2.7
      Brueny: .5

      That adds ~15.3, putting us at ~182…right on line of “reports” for where the Yanks wanted payroll.

      Don’t forget we get 1M for Rasner!

  • http://www.new.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/profile.php?id=594331910&ref=name Jamal G.

    Kei Igawa was dropped from the 40-man roster, why does he still count against the payroll?

    • http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_postseason.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=121250&statType=2 Slugger27

      good point

    • E-ROC

      If I had to guess, Iggy’s contract is still a major league contract even though he’s not on the 40-man roster. If a coach is fired, that team will still be paying him for the remainder of his contract. The Dallas Stars kicked Steve Avery to the curb, but they have to pay him the rest of his money unless they file a grievance of some sort.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph P.

      Because the Yankees aren’t paying his salary with Monopoly money.

      • http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_postseason.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=121250&statType=2 Slugger27

        obviously we know that… but we were more curious with the public payroll figure… for revenue sharing/luxury tax purposes

        igawas posting fee is real money but not listed on the payroll, we were wondering if players not on the 40 man works the same way

        • Ed

          Igawa’s salary doesn’t count against the payroll calculations for the luxury tax. But generally it’s more useful to talk about the total monetary picture, as I doubt the Yankees are ignoring Igawa’s money just because he’s not on the 40 man roster.

          If you remember the big fuss a few years ago when Giambi had his terrible season after the Balco trial, the Yankees tried to get him to agree to go to the minors. One of the factors in that was it would take his salary off the luxury tax calculations, which would be a large amount of money considering his salary.

  • dkidd

    i don’t believe they will open the new stadium with this line-up. one more bat will be signed or traded for

  • Steve S

    Thank god someone said it. Timmy D at MLB trade rumors had them $140M in guaranteed money for next year before they did anything.

    Im curious if there is any deferred money in the CC contract. Does anyone know if he opts out, does the deferred money still vest or does he give up any rights to that? I would think it would be the former. I know Arod had a lot of deferred money coming from Texas, he must have still received it based on the first seven years of the contract.

    I think this whole payroll limitation may be some posturing by Cashman in order to control agents from using him to leverage other teams. Between the teams failure to make the playoffs, the opening of the stadium, Ben’s explicit and detailed coverage of the shady stadium debt financing, the current economic crisis and the Yankees current spending spree, ownership would have a hard time saying you have to reduce payroll right now. I know thats arguable but it would be odd to me for the Steinbrenners to agree to spend say $200 and not $220M.

    I would hope that Cashman would make the best baseball decision possible. this is definitely his baby now. If he decides against Texeira or Manny it should be for baseball reasons not financial. i think everyone here can lay out the argument that Texiera would be a good investment considering the loss of damon and matsuis salaries.

    • gxpanos

      Would Cashman want to stop teams from using the Yankees as leverage? That’s common in free agent negotiations, raising the price, etc. etc. Am I missing the downside for being used as leverage?

      I also don’t necessarily agree with the last paragraph; financial decisions and baseball decisions aren’t always totally separate, if Cash wants roster flexibility down the road and doesn’t think 36-year-old Tex is worth it, he won’t sign him.

      I mean, I certainly think they should sign him. But I could spend 300 million of the Yankee’s money, and I wouldn’t be spending a dime.

      • Steve S

        Leverage with respect to players they arent pursuing yes, then its great but players they actually are pursuing no. Now that theory went out the window the minute they publicized the CC deal. But Cash said the stuff about payroll, specifically getting it to $185M, long before that happened. I think the turn in the economy changed some of their strategy. But as for guys like Texeira or Manny, if he has legitimate interest in either, it wouldnt be beneficial to allow Scott Boras to inflate the price to other teams, unless you were sure that you werent going to sign the player.

        • gxpanos

          I don’t see this point at all. So, if they wanted to sign a player, it wouldn’t be beneficial to allow Boras to use them to “inflate the price for other teams”? If they actually wanted a player, they wouldn’t be inflating the price for other teams with an offer, they’d just be in a bidding war. Which is exactly how free agency works. By your logic, if the Yankees don’t want a player, they should offer a deal to inflate the price. And if they do want a player, they should…not offer a deal, so as not to raise the price?

          Clarify if I’m missing something.

          • Steve S

            No thats not my point. If they inflate the price to other teams, there is a possibility that the other teams will also match that offer and compel the Yankees to raise their offer.

            Here is how it works, the Yankees are more than often the market maker. They can arguably be linked to almost ANY player that is a free agent. So Cashman has to temper some of that enthusiasm. Especially when there are large percentage of players who dont actually want to come here. They merely want the Yankees involved in order to get a better offer from the destination they actually want to got to. Thats what CC was trying to do, only the economy prevented him from succeeding.

            Look at how the Yankees handled Johnny Damon, which might have been Cashman’s best negotiation as the GM with a free agent. If the Yankees want player X, normally their best approach is to lay in the weeds and allow the market to develop because ultimately they will set the market. They can more than likely afford to outbid anyone on any player. By putting it out there that they have limits on what they can pay, Team B is less likely to believe Agent has th

            The CC approach can work- see Jason Giambi, you want a player you make the bid based on what you believe to be market value and he quickly accepts.

      • Steve S

        Yes financial decisions and baseball decisions aren’t always separate…for most teams. When you commit $82.5M to AJ Burnett, then how can you really argue that the money invested in Texiera would be poorly spent or would somehow limit your roster flexibility, especially with minimal impact positional prospects being close to ready. I mean we all love Montero but he is realistically three to four years away.

        • gxpanos

          Again, I’m all for signing Tex (especially with the lack of positional prospects).

          But it seems like you’re saying that because of the Burnett signing, the Yankees have thrown the roster flexibility card out the window, and that’s not true. It’s not all or nothing. Just because they’re giving Burnett a lot of money doesn’t mean giving out 8/160 or 8/180 to Tex wouldn’t hinder them in the future.

          Just kind of anticipating Cashman’s argument, which is plausible (though not correct, in my opinion), for not signing Tex.

          • Steve S

            Im not even arguing that he needs to sign Texeira. Normally I would agree but really the Burnett signing is the prime example of having limited roster flexibility and it really undercuts any financial argument that Cashman would have/ Roster flexibility makes sense when evaluate (in no specific order).

            1) the position,
            2) the current need;
            3) the available replacements from within
            4) the available replacements from free agency
            5) the skill level of the actual player you are pursuing
            6) the potentional replacements whether from within or in free agency on the horizon.

            Given the Yankees depth with young starters, given the amount of other starters available through free agency and given AJ Burnett’s track record. I dont know how Cashman can say that paying Texiera, who is a premium player, through age 36, when he is willing to pay AJ Burnett through age 37. Especially when its very easy to see AJ Burnett being the fourth best starter on this team come August. And thats in the first year of the contract. Im sorry call me crazy but if he draws the line at Tex and paying him for 8 years then its a little insane. If he thinks he can improve the team in another ways and Swisher can go back to his career numbers, then he has a baseball argument. Not to mention he has a greater need in CF then he does at 1B. Thats a baseball argument, not a financial argument.

            • Steve S

              And yes they have thrown out that argument with the AJ signing.

  • Brian Cashman is watching

    The key is not what is being spent. The key is the payroll in 2009 for luxury tax purposes. You do not consider buyouts. I believe also that, for luxury tax purposes, you consider the average annual salary paid out under the contract, which means Alex Rodriguez’s value is actually higher than the $32 million cited. Otherwise teams would backload for years with interest to get under salary requirements. The second point I’m not as sure on, but I believe that’s true. The arbitration hearings will increase salaries, so that does need to be considered. If we consider buyout costs, etc., then we will want to consider salaries to everyone. Buyout costs go more to operating expenses.

    Then again I could be totally wrong, and apologize in advance.

    • A.D.

      Yanks have a lux tax exception since “they” paid for their own stadium

      • Steve S

        I didnt think the stadium applied to the lux tax, I thought it only applied to revenue sharing. they could use the debt they are paying to build the stadium as deductions to what they will owe with respect to revenue sharing. I think the lux tax sticks. At least that has always been my understanding, i could be wrong.

        • A.D.

          that might be what I was thinking

      • stroscoach

        Are you kidding , new york tax payers are paying for the stadium at a cost of 1.5 billion and there’s another 400 million going to be put on the tax payers for over runs. the yankees have been killing baseball for years and this may be the final dagger.

    • http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_postseason.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=121250&statType=2 Slugger27

      isnt arods average annual salary 27.5?

      • Ivan

        Well sorta but the first couple years of his contract is front loaded so right he’s gettin paid like over 32M tthis 09 season and a couple years of gettin paid over 30M. Nevertheless, his contract comes down after that though.

  • WhizzoTheWize

    No bat, no playoffs.

    No playoffs, no big YES revunue, playoff tickets, etc.

    Prediction?

    Payroll record gets shattered.

    Welcome Tex.

    • Ivan

      “No bat, no playoffs.”

      You can’t say that. Hey, while their offense isn’t dominate, it’s far from terrible either and if some guys have some bounce back years specifically Cano and Posada, we have enough offense to contend. Again, yanks are going as far as their pitching takes them period.

  • Ryan S.

    Very interesting post right there, I was definitely low balling the Yankee’s 2009 salary projection.

    That said, I’m definitely in favor of signing up a big time bat – I’d be very happy with Tex, Manny, or Adam Dunn. Being that we have a team built to win now, and the front office obviously wants to win now, it seems logical we’d shore up our biggest weakness and get A-Rod some protection in the lineup, even if you have to sacrifice the goal of cutting payroll this year.

  • Ivan

    I really don’t think the yanks are gonna get a big bat.

    It looks like the Yanks don’t view Dunn as highly as you guys do and would really be a last resort type of thing.

    Once the yanks sign CC, they basically said hey we can sign either sign CC or Tex but not both, so I seriously doubt he will be a yankee.

    Manny really has the highest possibility of coming here but it’s not that high really considering the yanks want to get him at their cost and I doubt Manny would drop his price.

    • Ryan S.

      I was lamenting yesterday about how Cashman doesn’t even seem to know that a baseball player named Adam Dunn exists, but another poster rightly pointed out that just because Cashman isn’t talking about it, doesn’t mean he isn’t thinking about it.

      Rumblings about Adam Dunn will start being heard more and more after Tex is off the market. Second tier free agents are still waiting for big money teams to kick their tires, and big money teams are still waiting to see where Tex (and maybe Manny) lands before moving on to other guys.

  • A.D.

    Screw that I must have missed people before, .39 assumed for players with no listed contract:

    Total: 180.19

    1 Arod 32
    2 CC 23
    3 Jeter 20
    4 Burnett 16.5
    5 Mo 15
    6 Posada 13.1
    7 Damon 13
    8 Matsui 13
    9 Swisher 5.3
    10 Wang 4
    11 Marte 3.75
    12 Nady 3.3
    13 Cano 6
    14 Molina 1
    15 Brack 1
    16 Bruney 0.75
    17 Miranda 0.4
    18 Melk 0.46
    19 Ransom 0.39
    20 Giese 0.412
    21 Hughes 0.406
    22 Duncan 0.398
    23 IPK 0.394
    24 Alby 0.39
    25 Aceves 0.39
    26 Cervelli 0.39
    27 Joba 0.39
    28 Clagett 0.39
    29 Dunn 0.39
    30 Garcia 0.39
    31 BG 0.39
    32 Jackson 0.39
    33 Robertson 0.39
    34 Humberto 0.39
    35 Veras 0.39
    36 Wright 0.39
    37 De La Rosa 0.39
    38 Hacker 0.39
    39 Christian 0.39
    40 Coke 0.39

    • http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_postseason.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=121250&statType=2 Slugger27

      wang will surely make more than 4 and nady surely more than 3.3 though

      • A.D.

        yup, they, will, just going with what we know is true

    • Steve S

      Giambi buyout $5M

    • dan l

      Miranda is at 500,000 and the minimum salary is 400,000 in 09.

      Trade Damon and sign Dunn!

      • A.D.

        damn min changing… Miranda signed a 4 year deal after he defected

    • troy

      The $390,000 is only paid if they are on the major league roster. Those on the 40 man in the minors are paid at a much lower minor league rate

      • A.D.

        That will be about 6M difference

  • Zack

    Joseph, as has already been mentioned sort of, I think that YOU too,, are guilty of some “fuzzy math,” a term which drives me insane considering its source.

    Certainly no reason to count Igawa’s salary, and I am pretty sure buyouts don’t count (though I could be wrong). Plus there is the $1M for Rasner.

    In either case, the Yankees payroll last season was right around $210M, so even if the Yankees ARE at around 190M, they still could spend $20M and be right around last seasons payroll.

    And, of course, if the Yankees do sign another bat, in theory, they would probably be trading someone away, no?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph P.

      My overall point is that people are greatly lowballing the payroll. I should have added the Igawa money, though I’m not sure what to do about the buyout money.

      • Zack

        Agreed, the notion that the Yankees can just sign anyone is absurd, and I would definitely doubt that they sign Tex.

        The buyout is definitely a mystery, but then again, considering how ridiculously convoluted MLB is about all of its finances, I think even if they spelled it out it wouldn’t make any sense

  • radnom

    This is what i’ve been saying to those who are up in arms for us to go out and pay Dunn/Manny to fill a position we already have covered.
    The only upgrades at this point should be at 1B or CF, otherwise it doesn’t make sense to jack up the payroll.
    When it all comes down to it, I think Pettite returns and Cam probably gets traded here.

    • Ryan S.

      The problem is that no on in the lineup can protect A-Rod. Getting someone like Dunn or Manny makes other players (namely, Rodriguez) better as well.

      • radnom

        I don’t buy this at all.
        Who was so great protecting him in ’07 when he tore up the league? Or last year when he led te league in VORP?

        They will be fine with Posada and Matsui back in, plus all the pitching the’ve aquired.

    • Axl

      Would you rather have Manny for 3-4 years or Dunn for 3-4 years?

      Manny is clearly the far superior hitter…but he’s much older..and carries heavier baggage…

      • Ryan S.

        I’d take either. Both are power bats, and both have pros and cons. I’ve been debating that question for a while in my head. Manny is an everyday DH, maybe making a cameo once a week in LF. Dunn you can juggle around 1B, either corner OF spot, and DH.

        In 2009, Ramirez will hands down be the superior bat, and I don’t think many players could do a better job of protecting A-Rod, which makes me tempted to say we go with ManRam (something like 3 years, $66 million?) … especially if you can teach Matsui to play 1B, move Swisher to RF, and trade Nady.

        • http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_postseason.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=121250&statType=2 Slugger27

          matsui cant play 1b… no chance

          • Ryan S.

            I would definitely give Matsui a chance in ST to see if he can be, while yes, below league average, at least not a butcher at first. You’d be maximizing your lineup’s potential if you can squeeze Manny and Matsui in the same lineup. I guess you could also let Damon try to be your first basemen and have Manny be in LF but ugh…that is not a pleasant thought.

            Otherwise, you’d have to use Matsui as a $13 million benchwarmer, or you can trade him at a very low value.

            • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              I would definitely give Matsui a chance in ST to see if he can be, while yes, below league average, at least not a butcher at first.

              Again… he can’t. This is a pipedream. Sheffield couldn’t handle 1B, and (at the time) he had miles more athletic ability and was in much better shape.

              HIDEKI MATSUI IS A DESIGNATED HITTER. It’s a sad reality of life. There will be no position he will play for more than a handful of innings in 2009, other than DH. Not LF, not 1B.

              DH.

        • Sweet Dick Willie

          and trade Nady.

          Okay, I mentioned this on a previous thread, but here I go again.

          Obviously, there is no love for Nady amongst RABers. However, doesn’t anybody consider the fact that Mr. Cashman must like him? Why else would he trade the #2 position prospect in his system for him?

          Additionally, most of the posters want to trade him so we can sign another bat (at a very large salary). Having some reasonably prices players allows the Yanks to employ some ridiculously paid players, ala Jeter & Alex. Every starter can’t have a $15 mil+ contract.

          • A.D.

            I think that people are being realistic, if the Yankees sign another bat, then someone should probably go. When you look at the options:

            Swisher: just acquired, would have to go with a wider package to get more return then just spent. Multi year contract

            Damon: NTC & 13m owed, but FA at end of season
            Matsui: NTC & 13m owed, probably can’t play the field, FA at end of season

            Nady: after arb owed ~6, FA at end of season, coming off career year.

            Nady is the most logical trade candidate in he’s both tradable & is the most appealing to other clubs. Cash might be able to get a good prospect for him, thus replacing some of what was given up

            I don’t think its that people don’t like Nady, but that realistically he’s a player that can be traded for something.

            • Sweet Dick Willie

              I agree with every thing you say. I just think that if Cash was willing to give up his #2 prospect for Nady, maybe he thinks a little more of him than do the commenters, thus render trading him unrealistic.

      • http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_postseason.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=121250&statType=2 Slugger27

        dunn

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      This is what i’ve been saying to those who are up in arms for us to go out and pay Dunn/Manny to fill a position we already have covered.
      The only upgrades at this point should be at 1B or CF, otherwise it doesn’t make sense to jack up the payroll.

      But radnom, and with all due respect to Joe, only part of my constant calls for Tex or Manny is based on the money coming off the books this year, it’s also based on the money coming off the books NEXT YEAR and the year after that…

      2009:
      Damon- $13M
      Matsui- $13M
      Nady- $6M
      Molina- $2M

      2010:
      Mo- $15M

      Even if you say that we can’t add any more to the 2009 payroll without going over our 2008 budget, because we’re practically there, I’ll agree, but those 5 players leaving over the next two years are making an additional 49M in AAV. Consider this:

      Replace Mo (15M) with Mark Melancon (400k)
      Replace Molina (2M) with Frankie Cervelli (400k)
      Replace Damon (13M) with Austin Jackson (400k)
      Replace Nady (6M) with _____________
      Replace Matsui (13M) with ____________

      That’s 47.8M in newly freed money. Even if we set aside, say, 10M of that for future raises for various rookies (like Hughes or Joba), that’s more than enough room to add a Teixeira or a Manny this offseason (when he’s available) and still have room to add a Holliday/Crawford/Ankiel/etc. next offseason, when there’s better corner OF bats available…

      • http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_postseason.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=121250&statType=2 Slugger27

        dont forget jeter… while most of us assume its a foregone conclusion that he re-signs… he almost assuredly wont make 20-21 million like he is the next 2 years

      • radnom

        I realise you feel this way, and it is a fine argument, but you assume the front office would be willing to take a hit for one year before that payroll comes off next season when every public indictation is that they are not willing to do that.

        Also, I don’t agree that taking that hit is worthwhile to only upgrade from Matsui to Dunn, especially since there are plenty of corner outfeild options in the very near future, many of whom I would prefer over Dunn anyway. I think it might be worth it for Tex, but the front office doesn’t feel the same and its their money.

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          I think it might be worth it for Tex, but the front office doesn’t feel the same and its their money.

          No, I understand that all of us fans may be much more willing to go overbudget by 20/30M for one year for the long-term good of the team, moreso than the actual owners writing actual checks.

          I’m just trying to illustrate that it’s the smart thing to do, IMO; to take the long term approach. While we’d love for Damon and Matsui’s contracts to be gone already, I feel we shouldn’t let their final year and final 26M preclude us from adding a Manny or a Tex, as those two are singular talents and there won’t be anything like them on the 2009-2010 winter FA market, so we should pounce on them now (and dump Matsui for pennies on the dollar if need be.)

  • JRVJ

    Cliff Corcoran of Bronx Banter put up a similar post last week:

    http://www.bronxbanterblog.com...../what-now/

    By my calculations, the Yanks still have about $28.5MM left after getting Burnett (I’m assuming $16.5MM per year for Burnett in AAV and actual disbursements. What he’s getting in 2008 is probably lower than that, though).

  • Axl

    By the way on MLBTR, WEEI obviously somehow received the transcript of someone saying that Teixeira is close to signing with somebody for $22-28 million per year. There’s a big gap in between 22 and 28 million…very strange thing to mention…

    • UWS

      It wasn’t “someone”, it was Karl Ravech of BBTN. And he didn’t say Tex is close to signing for $22-28M, he said that’s where Tex expects to land when all is said and done.

      • Ivan

        Any guess where he lands?

        • UWS

          The article Axl cites doesn’t say. I am going to guess Boston, at 8/$195M.

      • Bo

        I think thats a pretty safe ballpark for him.

      • DonnieBaseballHallofFame aka they guy who has well documented history of belligerent thickheadedness and anti-intellectual character assassinations

        I hope its for ten years and $28 mill a year with the Red Sox. That would pretty much handicap that team from being able to spend to get market value equivalent of the pitching they currently have moving forward.

        Plus they would then have some angry people on the team that would be waiting to soak them come contract time, instead of the crying poor mouth the team usual does and get their guys to sign for way less than market value.

        A lot of wishing and hoping on my part.

      • Axl

        Only reason I put “someone” is because I forgot the name and didn’t feel like going back to get it…sorry to upset you.

  • AndrewYF

    I said this days ago, right here on RAB. And not even a h/t!

    • radnom

      Anyone with any sense has been saying this the last few days.

  • Bo

    This team needs a bat and that bat isn’t the K machine that is Cameron.

    • DonnieBaseballHallofFame aka they guy who has well documented history of belligerent thickheadedness and anti-intellectual character assassinations

      Agreed. I think this team needs Manny.

  • Jared

    The most recent figures I could find on this (after limited research) have the Yankees estimating their take at the gate this year at $253 million.

    The Daily News article I found is from last spring, so there arent figures for the 08 season, however the years before that are as follows:

    2007 – $188 mil
    2006 – $156 mil
    2005 – $144 mil

    Now in those years, the total payrolls were:

    2007 – $189 mil
    2006 – $194 mil
    2005 – $208 mil

    Now those first numbers are just the gate receipts. Im sure that with the new stadium they plan on making more money with concessions, mechandise, ad, etc. Even if we look only at the increase in at the gate, the Yankees have plenty of room for absolutely anything it is they want on the free agent market.

    Any analysis that doesnt take into account the huge increase in the size of the Yankees bankroll is not looking at the whole picture.

    • A.D.

      Impressive, in theory they will make more on the concessions this year, since they own the concession company.

    • radnom

      Yeah, but they’ve still got the entire minor league organization, trainers coaches etc. pushing up way over that $253 million regardless of what the payroll is. You are assuming they were making money those years in other areas (TV, merch etc) and maybe they were, but I expect a much smaller increase in TV and merchendise revenue than in ticket sales due to the new stadium. It is not so easy to say they have all the money they want for next season and could still turn a profit, we don’t have enough information to conclude that.

      • Jared

        Regardless of their other expenses, I think it is safe to say that they wont be looking at a decrease in those other areas. Everything else staying static, and they are still looking at a nice windfall.

        • radnom


          Everything else staying static, and they are still looking at a nice windfall.

          That is a lot of assume.

    • DonnieBaseballHallofFame aka they guy who has well documented history of belligerent thickheadedness and anti-intellectual character assassinations

      I think one thing you may be missing in that picture is a margin for error. In this new economic state we are in, with all the big money firms and jobs that just got erased in NYC and the rest of the world, it may be a good idea for the Yankees as a business to not spend too much more money going forward.

      None of those gate numbers moving forward are a true guarantee anymore. You can assume a lot of things but assuming they will be at full capacity dollar wise on ad revenue, gate receipts (which get split with other teams), concessions (which get split with the Cowboys to some degree), merch (which to some degree gets split with MLB and every other team) might be a super stretch given the time we currently live in.

      I hope for the best, but expect something short of that.

  • DonnieBaseballHallofFame aka they guy who has well documented history of belligerent thickheadedness and anti-intellectual character assassinations

    With Matsui and Damon off the books in time for the 2010 season, and Nady a free agent as well are there any predictions of who might be available via free agency for next winter?

    That will be roughly $30 something million that will be freed up between the three of them. I would not doubt them bringing back both, one or neither of Damon, and Nady.

    Are there are kids now in double A that would have a shot to make the team in 2010? I am not very knowledgeable regarding the Yanks minor league teams as I once was as a lad when I was a subscriber to that great periodical they call Yankees Magazine.

    • radnom

      No need for predictions, just google “2009 mlb free agents”.

    • Reggie C.

      One big name free agent for sure is Matt Holiday. Barring any mid-season trade, Holiday will play out the season with the As and a big season would really establish him as the top available FA. If Cash doesn’t sign Manny or Dunn, then the stage really is set a Holiday-Yankee signing.

    • Ryan S.

      Matt Holliday is definitely the name to watch out for as far as free agent outfielders in 2010 go.

      Internally, our best position prospect is Austin Jackson, a center fielder who is already being projected as taking over that spot by opening day 2010. He ranked as the #27th prospect this year according to MLB.com – here is the link to his profile from that article:
      http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorle.....pid=457706

      • DonnieBaseballHallofFame aka they guy who has well documented history of belligerent thickheadedness and anti-intellectual character assassinations

        Thanks everybody for the responses. I am aware of Holliday and Jackson. I have seen Jackson play but not enough to have a true opinion of him, also I am not sure I am the best at evaluating minor league talent.

        Holliday I am not the biggest fan of. Have not seen him enough outside of Coors to really get a true grasp on him but just looking at him I smell a PED / HGH guy. Hope I am wrong but I would prefer to stay away from him (because of that and I know he will get too many years at too many dollars), and also Ankiel who is a know HGH guy.

        Any bargin basement guys out there?

        Radnom I was not talking about guys that are just free agents, but fellows who will be free agents and most likely will not sign with their current teams, or guys that could possibly be non tendered (which I am sure is harder to assume given how far away we are from that time wise)

        Thanks everybody.

        • Reggie C.

          Of course if Cash pulls a surprise move and signs Manny or Dunn, then the team is very unlikely to address the OF next season. The team is desperate to plug in a farm hand in there who can actually hold his own at the plate. I think A-Jax takes another step forward, but that doesnt mean he gets to the MLB-ready point.

          • DonnieBaseballHallofFame aka they guy who has well documented history of belligerent thickheadedness and anti-intellectual character assassinations

            Yeah Reggie, I understand that if we grab Manny or Dunn or even Tex and move Mr Swisher up the to corners we still could need at least one or two people for the OF next year.

            Really my question was assuming we do nothing though. Either way I still want to know who might be out there.

            Crawford?

            • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              I’d personally give the 70/30 odds that the Rays pick up Crawford’s option, but that’s just my layman’s opinion.

    • Old Ranger

      FA that I like for 2010 is Crawford (Tampa) and there are a few other OF out there for next winter, can’t remember their names. Should be a good bunch next year. 27/09.

    • A.D.

      With the jump in salary that Cano, Swisher, recieve + Wang likely getting a raise, that’s about +10M for 2009

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      With Matsui and Damon off the books in time for the 2010 season, and Nady a free agent as well are there any predictions of who might be available via free agency for next winter?

      http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.c.....gents.html
      Browse to your heart’s content.

      That will be roughly $30 something million that will be freed up between the three of them. I would not doubt them bringing back both, one or neither of Damon, and Nady.

      I think it should be a bit more. See my above post.

      Are there are kids now in double A that would have a shot to make the team in 2010? I am not very knowledgeable regarding the Yanks minor league teams as I once was as a lad when I was a subscriber to that great periodical they call Yankees Magazine.

      Probably nobody but Austin Jackson. He’s the only outfielder in the system who’s actually starter-worthy, as opposed to backup-worthy (like Colin Curtis and Edwar Gonzalez). The only others are Kelvin DeLeon and maybe Chris Smith, but they’re still years away, likely.

  • scott

    Your post didnt take into accoutn the potential 6 mil in savings if andy pettitte re-signs as well as the lighter contract of cody ransom instead of betemit, etc.
    Manny is a true game changer…Tex is a good player but has never played in a pressure market before. Sign manny short term because the truth is that Posada is going to be a first baseman sooner than even he thinks. Give manny 3 yrs. and let him DH and after this season take damon and matsuis money and use it on Holliday. Posada should get alot of games at 1b starting this year in my opinion. Is there anyone who really wouldnt rather have manny batting behind arod this year? ask oritz how much that changes things.

  • deadrody

    The only problem with your decree is that until I see a balance sheet that explains the mythical status of $190 M or $205 M or $230 M, all those numbers are really meaningless. Money paid to Giambi and Pavano are one time payments and as I said yesterday the Yankees are most certainly thinking beyond next week and next year when MORE money comes off the books. And then 1 more year before they deal with Jeter’s ridiculous money.

    Your “money coming off the books” argument also fails to account for eliminating the luxury tax payments that will occur due to the new stadium debt.

    • mike

      There are so many other things to consider that to think yr-over-yr payroll is an accurate barometer of the team’s intentions is really silly.

      Besides those things noted above, the value of YES Network and the payments to the Yankees from the network are completely unknown (beyond what Goldman Sachs says), additional advertisement revenue from the stadium this year and next, what if any revenues are predicated on success/playoffs/world series etc.

      Also, look at Wilpon/Mets – rumor has it some of the Met’s finances were with Bernie, demonstrating at least some teams have a bucket of cash to keep for a rainy day ( which I never really thought about).

      Its a business for the Yanks, and an income stream for the Stein family & poartners – and if ( for instance) Hank needs another $10 mil for personal taxes, we could likely miss out on Tex whether the Yanks need a bat or not!

  • deadrody

    Not to mention that according to this article, Yankee revenues are expected to exceed $312 M next year. I’m not even sure if that includes money from the YES Network.

    The overall point is not to justify that they CAN spend that extra $40 Million, but that you cannot simply state that they cannot. I would definitely defer to the “CAN” side of the argument, especially when you think long term. Within 3 years Rivera, Posada, and Jeter all come off the books. At least two of those will almost assuredly retire. And again, like I said the other day, when that happens and you are spending your millions on decent players and watching Texeira play for the Angels or GOD FORBID, the blow sox, you will most definitely be kicking yourself.

  • deadrody

    The last point I will make is that clearly the Yankees ARE pursuing both Texeira and Manny. That defintely runs counter to the argument that they Yankees can’t afford to sign either one.

    And lastly, I don’t think there is any doubt, or at least I damn sure HOPE there is no doubt that if it looks like the Sox are going to sign Texeira, the Yankees damn well better throw caution to the wind and outbid them. I would like to think that even at his elevated age, such news would spring George into action and the word would come down from on high that thou shall outbid the Red Sox.

    Because forgetting winning and championships and tangible things that money can buy, what good is the highest revenue in baseball if you can’t use it to 1) thwart the vile Red Sox attempts to field a better team than the Yankees AND 2) piss off Red Sox fans to no forseeable end ?

    Am I right ?

  • Simmy

    The yankees need to sign Teixeira, Manny or Dunn to realistically compete in 2009 wth Tampa and Boston. Without that hitter, the lineup has good names, but Posada might not be able to catch every day, Cano and Matsui might not fully bounce back, and without Giambi they only have 1 OPS hound in ARod. Nady probably won’t repeat his career year and Damon will probably see a dip from last year, and Jeter continues to decline offensively. These things will all add up. If posada can’t catch that would really kill any hopes imho because Molina batting everyday is just downright scary, but I am hoping Jorgies got 1 more year in him. As for ARod – Its not that HE needs “protection” like someone wrote above, its just simply that the LINEUP needs another big time hitter. He can’t do it alone.

    As far as the payroll goes, no one in these comments has stepped up with all the rules about whether buyouts count, or how much increased salary to assume for various arb guys. But to me it is simple: If you want to be able to expect a 2009 playoff berth, you need 1 of those 3 hitters. If Cashman somehow makes a baseball decision that one of those guys to a long term contract will hurt you in the long run, well, I just disagree (I think that hitter would have been more important and less risky than Burnett, who I like, or even Sabathia, but certainly the fact that they got 2 filled which a need lower on the priority list than big time hitter, imho, which should have been the #1 priority with all the offensive woes I laid out in paragraph 1).

  • gg

    Dont sign Pet
    Dont trade for Cameron

    Buy a bat with all that money, and am I the only one who thinks Gardner could actually be good? the guy could lead the AL in SB’s

  • bpdelia

    honestly. They will probably stand pat.
    Next year Damon Matsui nady all come off the books and the free agent class is far far superior (as of now sans extensions of course)o: Matt Holliday, Carl Crawfrd, Vlad Guerrero, magglio Ordonez, Rick Ankiel, Melvin Mora, Brian Roberts, Adrian Beltre, and more.

    So the best bet is to stand pat and maintain payroll flexibility for when some of these players inevitably become available in late June. barring that it’s ok to not win the world series next year. The yanks are not pinching pennines but rather trying to build a sustainable franchise. I don’t care about the payroll. I do care about being locked into players taht can’t play and can’t be moved.

    I’d just wait to go one from the list of Crawford, Holliday, Ankiel, ROberts, Mora, ORdonez or (shiver aaaaghhhrrrrhhhh) Vlad Guererro.

  • http://advancedfantasybaseball.blogspot.com Jon Williams

    One fact that you did not mention in your post is that the Yankees are also receiving a major discount on their luxury tax/ revenue sharing payments due to the new stadium. Although it isn’t usually considered payroll dollars it is money that the Yankees will not have to pay this season.

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