Jan
11

RAB at Newsday: Nady or Swisher?

By

Newsday beat writer Kat O’Brien is headed out on vacation, getting in some R&R before the start of Spring Training. The crew at Newsday invited us to take over her blog for the next two weeks, and we’re honored to do so again. Today I took at how Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady matchup, concluding that if the Yanks do decide to deal one of their extra outfielders, Nady should be one packing his bags. Check it out.

Categories : Asides

46 Comments»

  1. Double-J says:

    Neither. I know we can afford to move one of them, but I like both of them. Given the offers I’ve seen with the Nats and Reds interested, I haven’t been blown away by a deal that says “Yes, the Yankees will be improved” by any real margin.

  2. “Offensively, it looks like Swisher will be valuable going forward because of his superior on-base ability.”

    I could have told you that, Mike. The guy hit for some monster power in ’06-’07, and didn’t exactly fall off a cliff in ’08. He’s always been amongst the league leaders in walks. And, unlike X-Nads, he is under team control at a very reasonable rate (during his prime years, no less).

    Depending on where you look, OBP is 2x to 3x as important as SLG, so whatever apparent advantages Nady has over Swisher are virtually worthless because of the discrepancy in on-base percentages.

  3. Mike says:

    Nice job. I’ve been wondering why the Yanks apparently want to keep Swisher over Nady, but this did a good job explaining. Thanks.

  4. Ryan S. says:

    Great article and great job to RAB for getting some of the respect it deserves amongst its peers. Hopefully the guest blog at Newsday gets this site even more readers.

  5. GAZU says:

    to me dukes of washington takes the gamble

  6. Cor Shep says:

    Hah I Liked how that first commenter completely threw out your argument because she didn’t like one of the stat projections lol… idiot

    Keep both.. I never realized how much better Swisher was at fielding. He should start in RF then Nady can start when Swish backs up LF/CF/1B. Right?

  7. E-ROC says:

    I’m officially on the Elijah Dukes bandwagon, even though I don’t think it’ll happen. I wish it would happen.

    • Reggie C. says:

      I’d gamble on the upside of Dukes any day of the week.

      He could play CF till A-jax is ready. Dukes frees up Swisher to move right into Nady’s outfield spot. This is exactly the long-term view the Yanks should be taking unless they want to overpay for Holiday in the ’09 off-season.

      • whozat says:

        The guy seems tailor-made to fail in New York. He’s not just a head-case; he’s prone to getting into serious trouble. He strikes me as a guy that’s a good bet to fail to reach his potential.

    • Troy says:

      Why the hell would you want Elijah Dukes? The man’s a friggin headcase, just stay away from him.

  8. dan says:

    I see what you guys are doing…. putting a link to RAB in the newsday post. Veeeeery sneaky.

  9. dan says:

    And I hate to keep bothering you about this, but it’s wOBA

  10. Manimal says:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....z-ope.html

    Yankees should throw some money to these guys, especially Gomez, a center fielder.

  11. rickross says:

    http://www.newsday.com/video/?.....Id=3321886
    The Yankees should sign those two. Speedy OF that hit 397 for a 66 game span and is a life time .331 cuban hitter. Marti one of Cuba’s best pitchers. Potential 5th starter and CF.

    • Manimal says:

      :D beat you by like 2 seconds.

    • A.D. says:

      i’m down with pretty much any Cuban signing

    • Mike A. says:

      Stats from Cuba mean nothing. Alexei Ramirez was a .338 lifetime hitter in Cuba, and Kendry Morales hit .391 over a full season as a 16yr old. Both of those guys are nothing better than mediocre in the bigs, if not worse. The competition down there has taken a step back, it’s like A-ball right now.

      Marti may have been one of the country’s best pitchers, but Jose Contreras was one of Cuba’s best pitchers ever, and look what he did. The track record of Cuban players just isn’t very good, they almost always seem to disappoint.

      • A.D. says:

        Morales has crushed the minors, the Angels haven’t given him a full season… I don’t think anyone would expect him to hit .391 in the majors, but he does have a .900 OPS in the minors.

        Just like I wouldn’t expect Alexei Ramirez to hit .338 in the majors, but potentially high .290s low 300s, which he did this year.

        So with Gomez, figure he could hit .280 + in the bigs, which then depends on the walks, power, etc.

  12. Manimal says:

    Did anyone see that play? It hit of the guys head and Pittsburgh recovered lol.

  13. A.D. says:

    doesn’t look like he got it

  14. Shamus says:

    I agree…

    Keep both, and when Nady flees via free agency after 09, the NYY get two draft picks. I like the idea of Swisher in RF, with Damon in LF and Melky/Gardner in CF (whoever wins the CF battle in ST).

    That way, Nady can spell Damon and Swish from time to time keeping everyone fresh. It adds tremendous depth to the bench as well.

    Short of some team offering a decent back-of-the-ro pitcher for Nady, plus a suitable prospect or two at the deadline, I say hold them both. With Matsui coming off knee surgery, Damon starting to reach the plateau of his prime, and both Gardner and Melky being legitimate question marks, I’d hold both.

    But, if you have to lose one of Swish or X, I say keep Swish for all the reasons Mike A. pointed out.

    Great, great write up from Mike, as always.

  15. ortforshort says:

    I read the analysis. I agree, up until last year, the two were pretty even. I don’t put much stock in defensive stats – too much subjectivity and too many variables. My take on this is that Swisher is a guy who has always had some difficulty making contact and last year his troubles increased big time. I don’t see why anyone thinks he’s suddenly going to reverse this downward trend. Just the opposite, guys who have trouble making contact tend to decline precipitously (this is ancecdotal – if someone feels like pouring over stats to prove or disprove this, be my guest). Also, I don’t see him keeping up the high walk totals once pitchers realize he can’t make contact when they do throw it over the plate. Nady, on the other hand, is hitting better as the years progress. He’s not that old, only 31, so there’s no reason to think that he’s going to start going the other way. Anyway, I still don’t see the hot sweat to unload either one of them at this point. I like the Swisher for Cameron trade idea, but not enough to think that its a must do.

  16. JeffG says:

    I posted this over there:
    “I have been giving lot of thought lately to the possibility of trading both and consolidation the two corners into one superior player. That player – Adam Dunn.
    If he could be signed for dollars in the park of what Milton Bradley took we’d come out having a guy that averages 40HRs a year with career .247 /.381 /.518. You think you would want to make that move if the price was pretty near what would come off the books by shedding Swisher and Nady.
    Also, this would help retool the farm that will be a little shallow considering the draft picks we will be forced to give up from our big FA signings.
    The big drawback to this kind of move would be defense and Dunn’s high strikeout rate. But considering his OBP and slugging I can deal with the strikeouts. Bat him 5th behind A-Rod and Tex and you’d see him post a lot of runs.
    As for the defense, our rotation more than in recent years will have guys that can miss bats. Wang still keeps the balls on the ground.
    All and all I just think it would be a surer bet than hoping that Swisher rebounds or that Nady doesn’t return to league average”.
    Does anyone else follow this logic?

  17. Bonos says:

    Another Dunn fan posting the same things over and over. Go to Fangraphs, type in Dunn and scan to the bottom of the page, value – 2 wins over average, that’s it. Dunn is -22 defensively, Swisher is +14. Until last year Swisher was 3.5 wins over average. Next we’ll have the Manny crowd clamoring.

    • JeffG says:

      Yup, Ive posted the idea a couple of times but haven’t gotten that much of a response so I just figured it wasn’t read as it was catching football posts etc.
      I’ve been to fangraphs… Swisher+14?
      Anyways, Dunn has been extremely consistent and I think looking for the Swisher rebound might leave us with a hole in the lineup.
      RAB made a case for Dunn way back. Not sure why its been abandoned?
      http://riveraveblues.com/2008/12/get-it-dunn-6114/
      By the way, I would never like to see Manny on our team and his price tag is too much anyways so you don’t have to worry about me going there.

      • Bonos says:

        I repeat – Dunn’s value was 1.9 runs over average last year, worth 8.7 mil. I really don’t care what RAB had to say. Swisher and Dunn are almost interchangeable with Swisher playing better defense and Dunn with a higher OPS. Nady was 3.6 value runs last year. I thought the idea was to improve the team.

        • JeffG says:

          Swisher’s career slugging percentage is .451 Dunn’s is .518 they are not interchangeable. With the fangraph numbers you’re relying on Swisher was worth 3.9mil last year… obviously Nady was worth the most.
          I’m just not inclined to think the heavy discount they place on value would be the case with the pitching staff we have.

  18. VO says:

    5. Hideki Matsui DH

    fixed

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