Adjusting the Joba Plan
ByOne day later and already the Yankees are changing the plans.
Tyler Kepner first broke the news early this morning that the Yankees were considering changing their weekend pitching plans. A few hours later, George A. King III reported in The Post that Joba would start on Sunday and then get a few extra days off this week.
According to King — and remember, this is an unconfirmed report from everyone’s favorite tabloid — the Yankees were concerned that by throwing Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre in back-to-back games, they would be left short-handed in the pen and with only Alfredo Aceves as a long-relief option. Mitre will get the ball on Saturday; Joba will pitch Sunday; and then Joba probably won’t start again until the Texas series at the end of the month. The Yanks may very well give him eight or nine days between starts.
Some fans will be up in the arms over this news, but I have no problem with it. The Yanks don’t short-hand themselves right now, and by stretching out Joba’s rest, they can better line up their rotation. In the end, it’s all about the innings, and a column by Joel Sherman drives home that point today. He writes:
Let’s consider this from a different perspective. In 2007, Chamberlain was progressing wonderfully as a starter in his first pro season. Without interference, he would have thrown 120 minor league innings, positioning him for roughly 160 innings between the minors and majors last year and roughly 200 this year. But the big club needed a reliever, and Chamberlain was instrumental in getting the 2007 Yankees to the playoffs.
That ignited a debate about his true role while retarding his normal progression, because he was never returning to the minors. But the Yankees have a prescribed innings total for each prospect and this is the time of year throughout their system that they are giving extra day’ rest or limiting innings as, for example, they have just done with Ivan Nova at Triple-A. Few notice because it is happening in minor league towns. But Chamberlain is still going through his build-up phase in New York.
Of course it is tough to give Chamberlain more rest or fewer innings in a playoff race. But, I believe it would be negligent to flush all precaution. It is a tough tightrope, but a necessary one to walk.
Sherman makes a similar point in a blog post as well. He says that the Yanks’ “Win-Now” attitude in 2007 cost Joba innings this year. It is, supposedly, a lesson in balancing patience and planning for the future with the demands and allure of a World Series title.
There is only one problem with Sherman’s charge: It’s not quite accurate. A look back at Joba’s innings tells a slightly different story. In 2005, at the age of 19, he threw 118.2 innings, and the next season, he threw a hair under 90 innings. At that point, the Yankees would have wanted him to throw around 120 in 2007, and between three Minor League stops, a stint in the Bronx bullpen and 3.2 postseason innings, he reached 116 innings.
As the Yankees have done with Andrew Brackman this year, so they did with Joba in 2007. Whether it was going to be in Scranton or the Bronx, Joba would have moved to the bullpen at around the time he did. In the end, he still reached his 2007 innings.
With 2007 in the books, the Yanks’ goal for 2008 was to bring Joba up to around 150 innings. When he went down with a shoulder injury in August, however, those plans were scraped. Joba returned to the bullpen in September, and the Yanks, for reasons unexplained, never had him start again. He finished 2008 with just 100.1 innings, and here we are in 2009 with the Yanks shooting for around 160 innings for Joba.
Despite this history, Sherman’s point still stands: The Yankees are wise to keep a close eye on Joba. Next year, he should be at a cap of 180 innings, and that will be enough to end this constant obsession-slash-controversy over Joba. He is and remains a starting pitcher.
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I like it. I was worried about Gaudin/Mitre going back to back. I’d put the over/under of innings we would have gotten out of both of them at 9.
How many days rest is it going to be if he pitches Sunday?
It’s unclear, but probably 8-10. They could just skip his spot in the rotation and bring him back on regular rest x 2 the following week.
So he’ll miss Boston?
I hope CC, A.J. and Andy are going.
I posted Joba’s numbers on 6+ days rest before and they’re nothing to get excited about. While his ERA is ironically down, every other meaningful stat is way up…and it isn’t pretty…
There is a horrendous article in AM New York today about how the Yankees are babying Joba. Can’t find it online, but wow, it was one of the worst articles I have ever read. Of course, it’s AMNY and that’s to be expected.
Was it that stupid Wallace Matthews piece that was also in Newsday? They’re owned by the same companies.
yup
mui garbage
Wallace Matthews? Nuff said. Sheesh.
Sherman’s article is a direct response to the Matthews article. He mentions the same old timers.
written by wallace matthews a newsday writer. not worth the free i paid for it.
Except for Heather Haddon’s coverage of transit issues, that’s generally how I feel about amNY on a daily basis.
i enjoy metro much better but the train stop by my house i get on every morning only has amny and by the time ig et to penn im like whatever, nto gonna read another free paper. esp since i walk to work and dont waste my money on the subway. and hate ppl that walk and read…..ok im done…
QUITE FRANKLY I HAVE FOUND THAT AMNY IS NOT ALWAYS EASY TO READ FOR INSTANCE SOME OF THEIR ARTICLES ARE DIFFICULT TO READ.
Writing in all caps is difficult to read.
I think it’s a bit.
Yet it’s strangely hilarious.
I like that he captured his tone and that the name is also in CAPS.
IT MIGHT BE DIFFICULT TO READ BUT QUITE FRANKLY SOMETIMES YOU CANNOT WORRY ABOUT WHAT OTHERS THINK YOU SIMPLY HAVE TO DO WHAT YOU THINK IS BEST. TAKE KOBE BRYANT. KOBE BRYANT IS THE GREATEST BASKETBALL PLAYER WHO EVER LIVED. YET HE COULD NOT WIN WITHOUT SHAQ UNTIL HE WON WITHOUT SHAQ THIS YEAR. AND THAT IS DEDICATION. THAT IS COMMITMENT. THAT IS THE HEART OF A CHAMPION.
BUT EVERYTHING HE SAYS IS IMPORTANT. HIS IS THE MOST DYNAMIC NAME IN SPORTS, ENTERTAINMENT, AND SPORTS ENTERTAINMENT, QUITE FRANKLY, IN THE ENTIRE WORLD. KWAME BROWN!?!?!?
(::munch munch munch:: … Cheez Doodle crumbs fall onto shirt.)
(I’m not the fake SAS, just lending a hand.)
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE LEVEL OF PERSEVERANCE THAT FOR INSTANCE A KOBE BRYANT HAD WHEN SHAQUILLE O’NEAL LEFT IT OFTEN MAKES YOU THINK OF ROSA PARKS BEING TOLD TO RIDE IN THE BACK OF THE BUS. IN A FIGURATIVE SENSE. AND THAT IS THE LEVEL OF TRIUMPH THAT KOBE BRYANT BRINGS TO THE WORKPLACE.
QUITE FRANKLY IN THIS DAY AND AGE IT IS RARE. IT IS RARE.
I LIKE YELLING TOO!
Not gonna lie, I laughed at this.
“… IT OFTEN MAKES YOU THINK OF ROSA PARKS BEING TOLD TO RIDE IN THE BACK OF THE BUS. IN A FIGURATIVE SENSE.”
Awesome. Just, awesome. (golf clap)
i’m laughing through the words ‘i fu#$ing hate that guy’ and my wife is asking why i’m laughing if i hate him.
how do i explain steven a smith without also explaining skip bayless? argh.
Just show her the last SAS Heckling Society of Gentlemen video. You can find it on youtube. The SAS sock-puppet rendition of Alanis Morrisette’s “You Oughta Know” kinda put that one over the edge, for me.
BECAUSE THEIR SENTENCES ARE NOT ALWAYS WRITTEN IN ENGLISH. I FEEL MY IQ DROP WITH EACH ARTICLE I READ.
I just pick it up to do the puzzles on the way to work.
“He says that the Yanks’ “Win-Now” attitude in 2007 cost Joba innings this year. It is, supposedly, a lesson in balancing patience and planning for the future with the demands and allure of a World Series title.”
picture yourself in 2011 and in the above, change 2007 to 2009 and Joba to Hughes.
OK. I am doing that…
Done. Now what?
commence cashman bashing and cliched teh suxoriest comments.
OK…
CASHMAAAAAN!
http://i269.photobucket.com/al.....uuuuuu.jpg
SUXOR! SHOULD HAVE THOUGHT OF THIS ALREADY!
there you go.
that’s fantastic.
all i am saying (obviously) is that hughes’ innings in 2011 will be less than what they could’ve/should’ve been if we didn’t feel “forced” to keep him in the pen this year in our pursuit of the title.
If they do need bullpen help, couldnt they just call up Marte for sunday?
Don’t they have to call up Marte by Sunday?
I actually haven’t seen many B-jobbers recently…
Only because Hughes has been so awesome in the 8th. Even B-Jobbers can’t envision Joba being much better.
There’s plenty of bones that you can pick with Joba as a starter this season, he’s been inconsistent, he generally doesn’t go deep into games, his command has been lousy.
Can we please swap Gaudin for Mitre? I don’t understand their fascination with Mitre. He might be more effective out of the bullpen right now. If he could strike out the side for 1 inning like he did in his last start I’d welcome that out of the pen.
Mitre’s WHIP is higher than Brackman’s
That is really scary.
UGH, he’s a 5th starter!!! What do you expect!?!?!?!?!?!
/Mitre’ers
/Quixote’d
I wouldn’t mind if they pushed Joba to 160 innings. It would be less then a 40 % jump. I would also like to look at how many pitches Joba has thrown. I think that has something to do with it also. 6 innings and 110 pitches is different then 6 innings with 95 pitches thrown.
I think it evens out with his 4 innings 100 pitch appearences. He’s had a couple of those.
Joba averages 17.08 pitches/IP, not sure what the rest of the league’s numbers are but wasn’t the Wang of old always around 14/IP? Joba also averages 3.88 pitches/batter faced. Also averages 94.5 pitches per game, most in a game this year was 108. The fact that he is a strikeout pitcher suggests to me that Joba has to work a little harder than guys who don’t strikeout batters all the time. He also has the highest WHIP on the team aside from Mitre.
of the 36 AL pitchers with 120+ innings, joba is 33rd in P/IP. let’s just say, he’s not economical
It looks like to me the only economical pitcher on the team is Sabathia. Here is the break down for the rotation.
Starter Pit/IP Pit/BF Pit/GS
Sabathia 15.95 3.83 106
Burnett 17.19 3.89 106
Chamberin 17.08 3.88 94
Pettitte 17.19 3.91 103
Mitre 19.19 3.86 86
Believe me, I have no problem at all with this. I’m going to two games of the Texas series, hopefully I’ll see him.
You have to go to the games just to see your dad? That’s so sad.
IETC What is Joba’s son’s name?
Karter
at least he knows who his dad is…
(…looking at you kobe…)
OMG WHO SAID THAT??!!
totally unfounded horrible joke that is completely baseless and in poor taste.
This would still mean Joba probably pitches one of the games in Boston.
I thought the plan was to line up Andy, CC, and AJ for Boston, I would be fine with that, I’m not sure who I would prefer to have, you can argue for either really.
The way Pettitte has been pitching lately were in good shape as long as no one named Mitre starts in the series.
who says joba can get out of 5 innings?
Did Snell say the Yankees should not have the lineup they have and complained about payroll. This guy was cut from the freakin Pirates and he just pitched a round of BP to the Yankees. What a wimp best deal not made wa to get this loser. I would rather see Mitre pitch even thoug he make me sick as well.
link?
To paraphrase “The Yankees should not be allowed to have that kind of lineup, but I guess when you have tha payroll” he also said something about al lineups being harder than nl lineupes. My response would be you suck in both leagues.
I think he was saying it more as a compliment to the Yankees. Kind of like that quote about how Mariano should be in a different league because he’s too good for this one.
This.
mryankee – I think you kinda missed the point of what Snell was saying. He was praising the Yankees, not taking a shot at them.
Matter of interpretation I guess, I saw it as a whiny excuse because he sucks. Best move not made by Cashman-unfortunatley that chump mitre is pitching saturday
Barring anything unforeseen, here is how I see the rotation playing out through the Tampa doubleheader on 9/7.
Aug 16 at Seattle – Joba
Aug 17 at Oakland – Burnett
Aug 18 at Oakland – Sabathia
Aug 19 at Oakland – Gaudin (starting debut vs. former club)
Aug 21 at Boston – Pettitte
Aug 22 at Boston – Burnett
Aug 23 at Boston – Sabathia
Aug 25 vs Texas – Gaudin (banking on him outpitching Mitre)
Aug 26 vs Texas – Joba (10 days between starts,could flip w. Gaudin)
Aug 27 vs Texas – Pettitte
Aug 28 vs Chi White Sox – Burnett
Aug 29 vs Chi White Sox – Sabathia
Aug 31 at Baltimore – Gaudin
Sep 1 at Baltimore – Pettitte
Sep 2 at Baltimore – Burnett
Sep 3 at Toronto – Sabathia
Sep 4 at Toronto – Joba
Sep 5 at Toronto – Gaudin
Sep 6 at Toronto – Pettitte
Sep 7 DH vs Tampa – Game 1 – Mitre, Game 2 – Burnett
In 2005, at the age of 19, he threw 118.2 innings, and the next season, he threw a hair under 90 innings
One error in this – in 2006, Joba played Winter Ball. He threw (I believe) 37 innings there. That brings him to about 125 innings in 2006, leaving his 2007 cap around 150-160.
An alternate plan could have been to have him start in the minors until the end of August / early September, then call him up to the majors to pitch in relief. He would’ve easily gotten another 20-30 innings in that way, which combined with September relief work could’ve gotten him to at least 140 IP.
Saw the Sox game yesteray afternoon-Verlander is kind of insane-anyone want to guess what iy would take to get him from Detroit and who would you rather have Verlander or Felix-I am thinking maybe he is the exception to the idea that you cant throw 100mph all game
has. nothing. to. do. with. joba.
Detroit isn’t moving Verlander. You’d have to blow them away with something like Cano/Chamberlain/Hughes, and that would just be the beginning of the conversation. He’s young, he’s good, he’s cost-controlled, and the Tigers don’t have the deepest organizational pitching depth in the business.
That said, I’d probably rather have Felix. I worry about his workload, since he has a lot of innings on that arm, but he’s still young enough that he keeps getting better.
But this is off-topic.
I don’t really care how the Yankees execute the Joba plan; as long as they execute it. I think the Yankees are smart enough not to let Joba Chamberlain turn into the next Carmona, Prior, or Wood, so I trust that however the organization decides to keep Joba’s innings down, his innings will remain down.
The Yankees better get it right the way they handle Joba. He is a fan favorite, and has been since he joined the team. If they screw up they will hear it.
This just makes it look like they don’t know what they’re doing. Almost like the “plan” wasn’t very planned out at all. Amateur Hour. Joba is a kid and is saying all the right things. Eventually some is going to ask him a question in such a way that he’ll either have to be critical or issue a telling “no comment”, similar to what A.J. did regarding the wild pitch fiasco with Posada the other day. All in all it is being handled in such a way that you’d swear that the front office across town was in charge.
“All in all it is being handled in such a way that you’d swear that the front office across town was in charge.”
-agreement
+disagreement
Well, considering you never knew the plan, I don’t see how you can determine that it “wasn’t very planned out at all.”
I don’t need to know the plan to recognize the confusion. This is August. And the race is in full swing. When you’re changing things on the fly, within days of your original schedule – it’s not flexiblity, it’s scrambling. I’m not an orthopedist nor a kniesiologist – but I would ask the question, what’s worse – an overage of “suggested” innings or an uneven implementation?
I’d counter with saying that the best generals always leave their opponents wondering what will happen next. What do the Yankees have to gain by revealing anything to anyone? For all you know this could be a tactic. Will Joba start against M’s? O’s? Sox? Everything’s in flux, publicly, but for all we know it’s just a deceptive tactic by the front office.
Also, I’m not an orthopedist or kinesiologist either, but I’d think that the Yankees, who have a vested interest in the long-term health of their player, would have asked that question to someone qualified to answer.
(Formerly known as Makavelli)
I think “innings” is a stupid way to look at things. Pitches is a much more accurate determiner…
We’ve talked about this before though. What if you throw a bunch of 7 pitch innings? That gets treated the same as a 30 pitch inning in which you struggled??
Doesn’t really make any sense. I don’t know why they don’t just go by pitches…more accurate and makes much more sense.
I wouldn’t say it’s stupid by any means. A pitcher has to get up and warm up for every inning pitched. What kind of toll does that have on him? (I really don’t know, I’m just posing the question.)
Further:
You have two pitchers, both of whom throw an average of 17 pitches per inning. One allows more baserunners than the other. How does pitching with runners on, with the additional pressure of minding the runners plus the obvious additional stress of pitching out of the stretch, affect his workload?
Innings, number of pitches, number of baserunners: these are all things we need to consider in determining pitcher workload.
“In 2005, at the age of 19, he threw 118.2 innings, and the next season, he threw a hair under 90 innings. At that point, the Yankees would have wanted him to throw around 120 in 2007,”
No, they would have wanted him to throw no more than 30 innings above his previous high, not the previous season.
150
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