Might the Yankees flip Aceves and Mitre?

by 145 Comments

Bullpen picks up Mitre, offense powers Yanks to sweep
An open letter to Joba

There was one reason why Mitre’s poor outing didn’t kill the Yankees that night, and that’s Al Aceves. Even though he’d been a bit shaky of late, likely a symptom of his shoulder fatigue, Girardi had the confidence to go to him with one out in the fifth. As he’s done for most of this season, Aceves gave the Yankees a few good innings which allowed them to win a game. It’s time he got to pitch more innings.

Sergio Mitre, it would seem, is not working out. He’s had only four starts, but he’s yet to finish six innings. Last night he again lost Girardi’s trust early, forcing the bullpen to get 14 outs, including the first two with a man already on base. The first six of those outs were recorded by Alfredo Aceves.

Next time around, the Yankees might want to consider flipping the two. Aceves can’t go deep into the game at this point, but neither can Mitre. At least Aceves would be working into a position where he might be able to last six, seven innings. He might never get there, but there’s little to lose in trying. Aceves has pitched well enough this season to earn a shot.

As a friend asked after I proposed this, why let Mitre blow games out of the pen? I’m not so sure he’d be bad out there. Even in the two-run first, the Jays were all grounders and bloops. The result was obviously bad, but I’ll take a guy who can get a grounder out of the pen. Plus the Yanks have him signed through next season, so they might as well give him a shot out of the pen.

If Girardi’s not going to let him work out of jams, Mitre is worthless as a fifth starter. The Yankees clearly aren’t returning Hughes to the rotation, a waiver claim is unlikely, and no one wants to see Kei Igawa’s return, the Yanks have no better alternative than to hand Aceves a rotation spot. The way he’s been pitching most of the season, that’s not a bad alternative at all.

Bullpen picks up Mitre, offense powers Yanks to sweep
An open letter to Joba
  • jsbrendog

    let mitre throw another one. we are winning his starts.

    • Moshe Mandel

      Agreed. I give him one more start. If he gives 5 or more innings at 3 or fewer runs, he gets another start.

      • Frank

        I agree. Mitre actually has decent stuff- his problem is command. But I can se him getting better the more he pitches. And if he doesn’t work, I guess Russ Ortiz is next in line.

    • JGS

      we are winning his starts, but his WHIP is over 2. you can’t play in this league with a number like that for long before it catches up with you

      • jsbrendog

        so let him pitch until it does. maybe it won’t until september. then you have 15 extra guyson the roster to play with.

        • JGS

          fair enough. as soon as I posted that I was thinking “but on the other hand…they are winning his starts”

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          then you have 15 extra guyson the roster to play with.

          Well, since Brackman, Kennedy, and Garcia won’t be coming up, technically we only have 12 extra guys to play with, and at least 5 or 6 of those 12 will be position players…

          • jsbrendog

            can’t kennedy be sent to the 60 day dl because of hsi anuerysm and replaced?

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              Nope. Wang and Nady could be 60-day DL’d because their injuries happened at the big league level. When you get injured as a minor leaguer, you’re in permanent 40-man limbo. Kennedy and Garcia’s injuries have basically turned our 40-man into a 38-man.

              • jsbrendog

                did not know that.

                weak sauce.

              • Andy In Sunny Daytona

                I think you could call them up, and then put them on the 60 day DL. But, if you do that, then the players accumulate MLB service time.

                I could be, and most likely I am, wrong.

                • JGS

                  you are absolutely right in this case.

                  Q – If a player is on the 40 man roster, in the minors and is injured, does he get put on the Major League 60 Day DL while accruing service time? The rationale I think would be that if you gain the benefit of having the player temporarily off the 40 Man roster, you should be getting a penalty for using that benefit – i.e. the Service time.
                  – Pete

                  A – Good question. A player who is on option cannot be placed on the Major League 60 Day DL. However some teams in the past have recalled an injured player in order to place him on the 60 Day. This most often happens when a team is in a position to make the playoffs and is trying to create roster flexibility for the postseason. (The K-Rod Rule) Obviously the trade-off is providing service time and Major League salary to the injured player.

                  taken from Bart Given, Inside the Majors

                • Andy In Sunny Daytona

                  Even a broken clock is right twice a day…..unless, the clock is broken because the hands fell off, so in that case, a broken clock would be unable to tell a time.

    • Bo

      Just because we are winning the games hes starting doesnt mean hes doing a good job.

      Why not try to get better? Why keep the status quo?

  • JohnC

    I’d bee saying for weeks Cashman should have given Paul Byrd a look, and now he has signed with Boston. You can’t tell me Byrd wouldn’t have been a much better option that Mitre. Could have signed him weeks ago and he’d have been ready before Mitre was even brought up.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      You can’t tell me Byrd wouldn’t have been a much better option that Mitre.

      Byrd wouldn’t have been a much better option than Mitre.

      There, I just told you that Byrd wouldn’t have been a much better option than Mitre.

      • JohnC

        Good one. Next you’ll be saying that you actually know something about baseball.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          Sergio Mitre has not been a good pitcher anytime recently.

          Neither has Paul Byrd. Hence, Byrd is not, by any stretch of the imagination, a “much better option” than Mitre.

          He might, MIGHT be a small upgrade. Not remotely one worth getting your panties in a bunch over, though. Byrd sucks too.

          Color me unimpressed.

          • scoopemup

            He has shown he can beat the Yanks,at least in the playoffs.Still,the fact remains, he sucks overall.

    • raymagnetic

      What’s with the agita over the Paul Byrd signing? He’s a hunned thirty seven years old and hasn’t pitched since last September.

      By the time he’s ready to contribute the Yankees will have the division firmly in hand. Book it.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        What’s with the agita over the Paul Byrd signing? He’s a hunned thirty seven years old and hasn’t pitched since last September.

        The agita is because he signed with the Sox, and many Yankee fans have an insane paranoia over the Sox and Theo Epstein, thinking that every single one of his moves are awesome and will always come back to haunt us personally.

        If Byrd had signed with the Texas Rangers or Seattle Mariners, nobody would give a crap.

        • JohnC

          Thats got nothing to do with it. I’d been saying for weeks that they should ahve taken a look at Byrd as a possible 5th starter. Point is, he wouldn’t have cost anything in prospects and would have been a much better option than Mitre. Not that I expected an intelligent reply from a blowhard like you but just saying.

          • zs190

            Who’s to say he would pitch for the Yanks? Paul Byrd had plenty of offers in the offseason and he chooses not to sign. This isn’t a guy that nobody wanted, he has plenty of options and was only going to go to places where he’s comfortable and that’s mostly Atlanta and Boston really. I am frankly not shocked that he signed with Boston.

            • JohnC

              He said he would pitch in the 2nd half of the season. Didn’t want to play a full season. And how do you know he wouldn’t pitch in NY unless they at least checked it out?

              • Mike HC

                I have a feeling the Yanks checked him out. They need a starter, he is an established starter. It would have been a no brainer to add him. You have to assume that he simply chose Boston over NY.

              • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                How do you know they didn’t check it out and didn’t like him?

                I can make tautological agenda-driven inferences in the absence of any actual evidence too, just like you.

                • jsbrendog

                  blowhard.

                  /johnc’d

                • Jack

                  Blowhard? Mr. Ironhorse does not approve.

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                  Get a room, you pansy homo-queers.

                  /IronHorse’d

                • Jack

                  Get a room, you pansy homo-queers C-L-O-W-N-S.

                  /Mr. Pinstriped Ironhorse Destiny.

              • jon

                How do you know they didnt?

              • Jack

                How do you know they didn’t check it out?

    • Klemy

      You’re basically weighing which pile of shit weighs more in this argument and in my opinion, 10 pounds of shit is 10 pounds of shit, I don’t care about which animal did it.

  • Joe R

    This is the time where you just hope no other real starting pitcher goes down. Last thing we need is Ponson/Rasner part 2 with Mitre/Ortiz or Towers or whomever. Depending how the playoff race goes they’ll probably just keep sending out Mitre only because I think Girardi likes the calming effect he gets knowing he can send out Aceves/Hughes/Coke/Mo to clean up any situation. That and the fact theres no real option other than Mitre at this point.

  • raymagnetic

    Might not be a bad idea to flip flop them. However do you think that Aceves recent tired shoulder is a result of the spot start he had earlier in the year?

    Also do you really want the Yankees to chance it with a guy who might have a shoulder that’s much worse than indicated?

    • jjyank

      Fair point. I’d rather have a healthy Aceves in the pen than an injured starter. I am firmly in the camp that starters are far more valuable (as everyone should be), but I’m not so sure here. Mitre has been bad, yes, but we haven’t exactly been getting blown out in his starts. A large part of that is the offense and the pen picking up Mitre’s shortcomings.

      Until that is no longer the case, I say leave things as they are in the time being. If Mitre gets rocked in his next start after the Boston series, the maybe we make that move. Besides, if Aceves is going to take Mitre’s next start, that makes him mostly unavailable during the Boston series, no?

    • Ed

      However do you think that Aceves recent tired shoulder is a result of the spot start he had earlier in the year?

      It’s probably a result of throwing about 46 innings out of the pen between May 4th and July 21st. That projects out to over 100 innings over a full season, a very high load for a reliever. That’s also not counting his innings starting at Scranton.

      Also do you really want the Yankees to chance it with a guy who might have a shoulder that’s much worse than indicated?

      Anything could be worse than indicated. And generally speaking, everyone is playing with a lot more aches and pains than we hear about. But we have no reason to think there’s anything significant going on. It’s not like we’re talking about a guy like Wang with a long injury history.

  • Kiersten

    Is it sad that I think it might not be a bad idea to give Igawa a shot?

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Yeah, it is.

      You know how Arthur Rhodes is a good LOOGY? Igawa’s probably a LOHGY.

      A lefty one-homer guy.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

        IETCVM.

      • Tom Zig

        Igawa could probably get the next guy out though.

    • Mac

      A little sad, I guess. But, I think now it comes down to with 55 games left how many will be started by a #5? 9- 11?

      Yanks won in spite of Mitre and maybe the answer will be start by start – giving Igawa, Nova, Towers, Fossum a shot.

      Once the rosters expand in September, the Yanks can have alot of extra bp arms to take up the slack.

      Who knows, if the Yanks build a bigger lead, the 5th starter may be moot.

      I do think Cash gets another arm or two before eom – its not going to be a big time pitcher, but maybe an upgrade to what they have now.

      • jsbrendog

        casey fossum is in the cubs system

        • Mac

          Don’t care where he is, he’s gonna get a start dammitt!

          Thanks for the correction – any warm body might do is my point – and that would be the worst case scenario – and while it could be pretty bad, I’m not too worried about the #5 starter yet – still giddy from beating Doc and the win last night.

          • jsbrendog

            yeah i did the same thing then was like, crap, they released him.

            his aaa numbers for the cubbies are actually quite dreary. his 7+ era (at least when i looked last week) in aaa makes mitre’s 5+ era in the majors seem like a wet dream.

            • Klemy

              Obviously he went off the PEDS!!!!

      • Frank

        Russ Ortiz is next in line if Mitre doesn’t pan out.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        Once the rosters expand in September, the Yanks can have alot of extra bp arms to take up the slack.

        In looking at the numbers, I wonder if we’ll see a spot-start from Wilkins De La Rosa in September. After transitioning Aceves, Hughes, and Coke to the bullpen + losing Wang, Kennedy, and Garcia to injury + Brackman not being remotely ready to start + McAllister and Nova not on the 40-man yet, we’re really, really reliever heavy. Especially if the plan is to basically shut Joba down for like 90% of September, which is what we’d need to do to keep him within shouting range of his limit.

        If Joba is unavailable for September, we’re looking at effectively a 17 man pitching staff:

        Starters (4):
        CC
        AJ
        Pettitte
        Mitre

        Relievers (13):
        Mo
        Aceves
        Hughes
        Bruney
        Coke
        Melancon
        Robertson
        Marte
        Claggett
        Albaladejo
        Edwar
        Dunn
        WDLR

        In order to not have Joba pitch AND to not have Mitre pitch, we probably need to have TWO of those relievers start, and since Hughes has the flashing “off-limits” sign around his neck, that means either some WDLR action, or DFAing Kevin Cash so we can add Nova or Z-Mac.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          Sorry, nevermind on the “DFA Cash” part. Forgot that the Ransom DFA/Claggett promotion opened up a hole on our 40-man, we can add one of Nova/Z-Mac without having to dump anyone.

          Of course, when Ransom clears waivers and accepts an assignment to Scranton next week*, we’ll have to revert back to my initial stance, but whatevs.

          ——————————

          *-Don’t say you weren’t warned. I bet we see Cody Ransom in New York Yankee pinstripes again in September. Get ready.

          • Mac

            I remember when the Yanks spot started Stanton several years ago – I think he gave them 4+.

            The question that will be answered in a few weeks is how important was the #5 starter? It could be very important, not so much or somewhere in the middle.

            There are a bunch of power arms in the Yanks minors – not commenting on how effective they will be, but I’m guessing this was one of Cash’s fallback plans – like you said, try a couple of them as starters and backstop them with 3-4 other guys.

            I still think he felt he could get a Bannister thru waivers and did not want to overpay in terms of prospects.

            Is it Towers that is posting a sub 2 era in Scranton last 3 starts?

            There’s options even if another pitcher can’t be brought in via trade, its going to be very interesting to see how it works out – especially come Monday morning.

            BTW, I don’t think anyone should ever have to apologize for saying “DFA Kevin Cash” – whether its accurate or not, its always a good thing to say. Ransom and DFA also go together quite nicely.

        • Mike HC

          I don’t think Joba is going to be shut down in any capacity this year. I know the Yanks have not said what their plans are, so it is all conjecture, but I just don’t see it. Shutting Joba down is a luxery in my opinion. The Yanks as of right no are in no position to do anything of the sort. YOu gotta limit his innings throughout the rest of the season, and then give him three starts max in the playoffs as our fourth starter. That is how I see it playing out.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            I didn’t say Joba’s going to be shut down for the playoffs. I said Joba’s going to be shut down for September and then ramped back up for October.

            The team has been clear on two key things:
            1) Joba is on an innings cap, and that cap will be respected. He won’t just keep making starts every 5 days and end up with 180+ innings. That’s not an option.
            2) Joba will pitch in the postseason. Having him totally unavailable in October is also not an option.

            #1 + #2 = Joba has to be aggressively, aggressively limited in August and September. As in, no more than 20-30 innings TOTAL in the next two months kind of aggressively limited.

            • Mike HC

              It depends on where we are in the standings. If we are fighting for a playoff spot, then Joba will not be saved for October, because without Joba pitching in September, there might not be an October. If the Yanks have a comfortable division lead, then I can see them drastically limit his innings so he can start at most three games in the playoffs. It all depends on where we are. My opinion is that if the Yanks need Joba, he will pitch. He is not getting shut down if it would really hurt our chances.

              • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                My opinion is that if the Yanks need Joba, he will pitch. He is not getting shut down if it would really hurt our chances.

                And, I’m telling you, Cashman and the FO will NOT allow Joba to just keep pitching and the consequences be damned.

                If he makes all his starts from now to the playoffs, he’ll have like 180 innings before the postseason even starts. Add on a couple of October starts and we’re at 200 IP.

                Joba Chamberlain will not approach 200 IP. That’s insanity.

            • AndrewYF

              20-30 innings will limit him to 130-140 IP.

              It’s more like 40-50, I believe.

              • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                Yes, but he needs some wiggle room for the playoffs.

                The statement that “all hands are on deck for the playoffs” doesn’t mean that those innings don’t count against his cap. It just means that we’re going to have him pitch in the playoffs.

                If his overall limit is 150, we’re not going to limit him to 150 in the regular season, we’re going to bring him in underneath his regular season limit so he can hit 150 at the end of the World Series.

    • zs190

      I sort of want to give him another shot too, but I don’t blame folks for not wanting to try again.

      • zs190

        sigh, reply fail, meant to reply to Kiersten a few posts before.

    • wilcymoore

      It would NOT be a good idea to give Igawa a shot … under any circumstances. He will give up at least 3 HRs per start in the majors, trust me.

    • Bo

      Igawa? i’d rather they put in Dave Eiland.

  • Art Vandelay

    Agreed as far as I think Mitre has proven that he has no business pitching in the majors at this point. Aceves should clearly be taking his spot.

    Would point out that I don’t think Aceves’ “shakiness” is due only to arm fatigue. I’m sure that’s part of it, but it’s also just simple correction. He’s not a 2-something ERA pitcher. If I recall correctly, I think he ought to be around a 4.00 as a starter, which is obviously much better than Mitre.

    As for moving him to the ‘pen, I don’t really see the benefit. I mean, there’s not much harm, but I’d rather see Melancon and Bruney get more regular work.

    • Mike HC

      To me, Mitre has definitely proved he can pitch in the Majors, just that it is going to take time. Like, he might not figure it out until next year. He has not pitched in the Majors for two years now. He was obviously going to struggle early. He might not figure it out in time for this season, but as Joe said, for an inning or two, he may be able to pull it together a bit faster. Eiland has had two TJ surgery’s, so I think they are going to be patient with Mitre.

  • Brian

    If Aceves is really a victim of shoulder fatigue, what makes anyone think he can last 6 innings for the rest of the season and potentially the postseason?

  • zack

    SO can Hughes play in winter ball this year to log innings? He can play in the Dominican league but not the others, right? But even if he went to the DL he could probably only log 30 innings or so, no? So either the Yankees will basically return Hughes to the rotation next year after three seasons of under 140 IP and try to limit is innings, to, um, 150? Or they plan on just keeping him in the BP? It does seem awfully shortsighted, especially considering where they find themselves with Joba…

    But I know, I know, dead horse

    • Mikebk

      actually right now hughes is at 84 innings this year if you count the 19.1 from scranton to start the year so if he can get 30 more before the regular year is over and 30 in the winter league thats 144 and should leave him with a limit of 170-180 next year.

      • wilcymoore

        I don’t see Hughes going to winter league ball. Hopefully the Yanks make the W. S. and Hughes gets 10 or so innings in the playoffs …

        • jsbrendog

          why don’t you see him going there? it only makes sense if the yankees expect to have a 5th starter next year.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            I think there’s a real good chance Hughes pitches winter ball.

            Like, 70%.

            • Mac

              On one of the YES Network shows about a month ago – maybe Girardi’s – they talked about winter ball being an option for Hughes – not just for innings but to work on a third pitch – I’d guess he goes as well.

              • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                Yup.

                Not only does he need innings, but he needs to throw his secondary stuff and get back in the habit of turning a lineup over multiple times and setting hitters up for multiple plate appearances.

  • CB

    Sergio Mitre’s ERA – 7.50

    Sergio Mitre’s FIP – 4.52

    Great case study on the limitations of trying to use FIP as a generalized statistic.

    • Art Vandelay

      Not sure what you mean by this, but keep in mind there are serious small sample size concerns here.

      • CB

        The sample size concerns apply to both ERA and FIP.

        FIP implicitly assumes that batted balls are turned into hits as random events. It doesn’t matter if the ball is a line drive or ground ball. It doesn’t matter how hard the ball is hit.

        That first hit Mitre gave up was a grounder that was crushed and smoked past tex. By FIP that was a random event that had nothing to do with the “innate” talent being measured of Mitre’s.

        So from the FIP perspective that that very well hit ground ball became a hit was a product of pure random chance and Tex’s limitations as a fielder. It had nothing to do with Mitre and his abilities.

        • Mike HC

          I’m not saying I completely buy into FIP, but the fun of those other stats is to show where some luck came into play and to shine some light on what else is happenning on the field besides who crossed home plate. If those hard hit balls were hit in different spots, they may have been outs. Mitre has been keeping the ball in the ballpark and allowing the D to make plays. The D has not made plays. Mitre has obviously been sub par, but maybe he hasn’t been this bad. Just kinda bad.

        • Chris V.

          Someone who doesn’t understand statistics alert

          • AndrewYF

            No, he’s right. FIP certainly should not be looked at as the end-all, be-all of statistics. It probably shouldn’t be used at all. There are now better ones.

            • Mister Delaware

              Such as QERA. Or anything that focuses on batted ball types rather than results (as FIP does with HRs).

            • CB

              It’s not even that one is “better” than the other. It’s that they tell you different information.

              And the information FIP provides is so narrowly defines that, IMO, it is only tangentially related to the game as it’s played.

              It’s a statistics that was designed for it’s quantiative purity rather than flexibility.

              But now people use it as the be all and end all of everything. I think that’s partly due to the way people take anything written on Fangraphs as some kind of bible truth and that sight has really pushed FIP.

              And in the end what happens is that people who have no clue about statistics wind up thinking that critiquing FIP means you don’t “understand statistics.”

              Or they’ll make astutue observations like mitre is just “unlucky” – look his FIP is so much lower than his ERA.

        • Mister Delaware

          FIP still ignores the GBs he’s generating. A guy with a 55% GB rate should not have a BABIP on the wrong side of .420. Or .320. He hasn’t been good and he’s not striking anyone out, but he’s doing what his type is supposed to, keep the ball on the ground and let the defense play it. There’s some serious bad luck; its not like he’s Ponsoning himself on the mound.

  • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Rebecca-Optimist Prime

    If Aceves is healthy the idea is not without merit.

  • Mikebk

    im not sure Ace is healthy enough to make long enough starts and if Mitre goes to the pen isnt that also a problem considering his ERA as bad as it is overall is worse in his 1st inning of work.

  • Adam

    I dn’t get it… they won’t put hughes back, when he is clearly the best option, because he is “too valuable in the pen” soooo they put aceves there? I think ace’s versatility makes him just as valuable as hughes… i just dont get it.

  • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

    Is it just me or Twitter down? I can’t get the site to load and TwitterFox isn’t working. It’s killing my browser.

    • Beth

      It’s not just you. Down for me too. When you go to istwitterdown.com the answer is yes. I can’t believe that website actually exists…

    • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Rebecca-Optimist Prime

      Twitter’s down.

      Which is really annoying me. I can barely function!

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

        Ok cool, as long as it’s not just me.

      • Kiersten

        This is one fewer distraction I have at work. Not cool.
        And how dare it happen the day Yanks/Sox weekend starts!

    • jsbrendog

      please refer to the guidelines and keep posts on topic. thank you
      :-P

  • wilcymoore

    Here’s a question for anyone who cares to answer …

    The Yankees are obviously planning on making the post-season (certainly we fans are). You need a four-man starting rotation in the playoffs. Assuming no injuries in the next two-plus months, we have: Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, and … who?

    Joba Chamberlain will presumably have used up his innings allowance by then and will be in the bullpen. I highly doubt the Yankees intend to start Mitre in the playoffs, unless he surprises us all and becomes a much more effective pitcher. Aceves is currently in the bullpen. Hughes is in the pen and is staying there.

    So what’s the team’s plan? Who’s the #4 starter in the playoffs? Please?!?

    • Mac

      I’m pretty sure Cash previously said the innings limit doesn’t apply in the post season.

      ALDS you probably only need 3 starters as well.

      • wilcymoore

        Sorta makes sense, since you’re pitching more innings but over a longer span of time. But I haven’t heard it if Cashman said that.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          That 4th starter in the playoffs is going to be one of the following three options:
          1) Joba Chamberlain
          2) Phil Hughes
          3) Al Aceves

          Now, if you’d like to know which of the three is going to be the starter and which two are going to be in the bullpen, I have mountains of hearsay, conjecture, and speculation to offer you.

          Those are kinds of evidence…

        • Mac

          I’m pretty sure I heard Cash say that on one of the radio shows a few months back.

          Supposedly on Russo’s show recently he said this:

          Cashman rounded out the interview by addressing everyone’s favorite topic Joba Chamberlain. He indicated that the team has a secondary plan in place if Joba’s hits his innings limit before the postseason. Without giving specifics, seems like they’re going to evaluate the situation when he reaches the 150-160 IP and put the secondary plan in place. By no means did he imply putting Joba but in the pen, rather confirming he wants Joba to start in the playoffs.

    • Mike HC

      Number 4 is Joba in my opinion. I don’t think the Yanks are going to shut him down. The number four starter will get three starts max in the playoffs, one per series, if we even make it that far. I don’t see the Yanks just yanking Joba out of the rotation. They will baby him as much as possible for the rest of the season, but there is only so much you can do. The guy is staying in the rotation. This is only my opinion and a feeling for what the Yanks will do. Many will obviously disagree with me.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        Many will obviously disagree with me.

        Yes, we will. The line forms behind Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Edinson Volquez, and all the other pitchers who got Dusty’d.

        I’m with you, I want Joba starting in the playoffs. Because I want that, I’m prepared to have Joba shut down for ALL of September. It’s one or the other.

        • Mike HC

          I don’t mind your plan. The only problem is that there might not be an October without Joba in September. It will be an interesting dilemma for the Yanks for sure. I’m happy I am not the one responsible for making this decision.

  • Drew

    Eh, I’d rather leave Ace in the pen for now. I mean, if the pen wasn’t so well rested yesterday, Mitre could have finished the 5th. While 5 innings is nothing to write home about, when guys like CC AJ Jober and AP go 7ish innings every time out, we have plenty of bullpen arms to fill in those other four innings that Mitre can’t cover. This of course all goes out the window if Mitre blows up in one of his upcoming starts.

    At the same time, I’m hoping we sign Marti, get him a couple of starts in Scranton and get him to work in the Bronx.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      At the same time, I’m hoping we sign Marti, get him a couple of starts in Scranton and get him to work in the Bronx.

      We do currently have an open 40-man spot.

      I’m just saying…

      • Mac

        WBC aside, I like the idea of bringing in a veteran that no one has really seen before.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          Yup. I like the idea of adding Marti more than the idea of adding Paul Byrd, for instance.

          • Tom Zig

            Why wouldn’t the Sox go for Byrd? He is sooo white.

      • Raf

        the clock is ticking on that but id love to have that option.

      • zs190

        Unknown factor: price. We really do not know how much these guys cost. Normally I would think it wouldn’t be too much but we saw the Sox sign some slick fielding shortstop with questionable bat for 8 million this year. Sure that guy was younger and is a prospect but still, price might be higher than we are used to.

  • Mister Delaware

    Just to rehash the already hashed for the 1,000,000th time, why are we not taking Hughes out of the pen? Are we still convinced that a new 8th inning guy (be it Aceves or a miraculously reborn Bruney or Melancon) is going to hurt us more than a starter? And what happens if, Mariano forbid, we have another starter go down? Panic? Why not go with the original plan and have our 6th starter (Hughes) move into the rotation after the first major injury (Wang). Good relievers are found all the time, atleast for a single year; starters not so much.

    • Charlie

      i agree, but i think i’m giving up that battle. the yankees are apparently too stupid to realize any of this, they value a setup man that can be replaced easily from within over a starter, for what reason I do not know

      • Drew

        oaktag

    • Bo

      I’m sure we’d all love to see Robertson pitch the 8th every night.

      Are you serious? This team took off once one thing happened. Hughes stabilized the pen.

      Now the stat geeks can denegrate the value of the pen but common sense dictates otherwise.

  • Charlie

    can someone tell me how the yankees would be leading Boston by 10 1/2 games if they split the 8 games against them so far? Wouldn’t they be up by 6 1/2? Maybe i’m retarded, but i don’t get it

    • Drew

      Yanks 69-38
      SOx 58-48

      • Charlie

        yea but if the yanks beat the sox tonight they’ll be up 3.5. you can only gain one game from a head to head matchup, so why is it 10 1/2? that means they would have gained 2 games each win against the sox

        • Drew

          Just a matter of deducting 4 losses from our record and adding 4 wins.
          Then doing the opposite for Boston’s record.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Each head to head win over an opponent represents a two game swing one way or another.

      If you go back in time and change the result of one game, you’re doing the following:

      Adding a win to our win column (+0.5)
      Subtracting a loss from our loss column (+0.5)
      Subtracting a win from their win column (+0.5)
      Adding a loss to their loss column (+0.5)

      0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 = +2.0

      Do that four times (half of the 8 games) = +8.0

      • Charlie

        ok, i got it now. thanks, i apologize for my idiocy

        • Charlie

          one more thing though, if the yanks win tonight they’re 3.5 games up, right?

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            Yes, but if they LOSE, they’d only be up 1.5.

            Two game swing.

            • Charlie

              gotcha, for real this time

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          You’re forgiven.

          Now kiss my Converse.

          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8udQdtwQBBU&feature=related

          • http://mantisfists.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/julius-carry-aka-shonuff.jpg The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

            Niiiiiiice. I’m busting out my old name-link-picture in honor of that awesome reference.

          • http://mantisfists.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/julius-carry-aka-shonuff.jpg The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

            Did you know RZA is apparently producing a remake? Samuel Jackson as Sho’Nuff, Rihanna as Laura Charles.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              Yeah, heard about that.

              I wonder if Rihanna will ask for a rewrite of any scenes where she was to be hit by someone.

              • http://mantisfists.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/julius-carry-aka-shonuff.jpg The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

                You should clearly be sending in your head-shot so you can get an audition for the Bruce Leroy role.

  • John Duci

    I want Joba in the rotation, Aceves in the bullpen and Hughes in the bullpen for the rest of the season. Leave the bullpen the way it is. I actually trust this pen the way it is. I dont want to mess with Jobas momentum right now by putting him in the pen. Everythings working, why change it? Also, leave Mitre until we start losing the games he pitches. The 5th starter doesnt really mean much in the playoffs anyway. If we have to get rid of Mitre I dont want the replacement to be from the pen.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Who starts Joba’s scheduled starts during late August/all of September?

      We need to rest Joba to keep him available for the playoffs. If both Hughes and Aceves stay in the pen, our rotation for September is now:
      1) CC
      2) AJ
      3) Pettitte
      4) Mitre
      5) ________ (Towers? Igawa? WDLR? Nova/Z-Mac, which probably requires a DFA of someone?)

      • Charlie

        i don’t think john here realizes that joba has an innings limit. That’s why they’d put him in the bullpen. And that rotation scenario is very scary, let’s hope the yanks move hughes/aceves to the rotation or have something up their sleeves

        • John Duci

          Or I do realize that Joba has an innings limit and I’m just saying FUCK IT. Was Lincecum moved to the pen last year to keep his innings down?

          • Charlie

            i’d like to say FUCK IT too, but there must be something too that whole verducci effect or no one would limit joba’s innings. we need to jobber to be good and healthy next year and beyond as well as this year, so you can’t completely blow off his innings cap

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            Tim Lincecum is A) two years older than Joba, B) has no prior history of arm troubles, C) came into the league with a higher career IP baseline from college, and D) is a physical freak with a high-stress delivery that people still worry about for potential future breakdowns anyway.

            Lincecum is a bad comp for Joba, and a moot comp since it’s not proven that his high workload hasn’t set him on the path for injury yet.

            Tim Lincecum is not Joba Chamberlain, and it’s moot. The organization’s plan does not include the line of thought of “Yeah, I know he’s got an innings limit, but FUCK IT!”

            Nor should it.

          • Drew

            You do realize Timmy pitched 177 innings the year before last, thus, 200 innings was more than attainable. They didn’t just say “fuck it.”

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              That too.

              Lincecum:
              2004, age 20 (NCAA): 112.1 IP
              2005, age 21 (NCAA): 104.1 IP
              2006, age 22 (NCAA, lo-A, hi-A): 157.0 IP
              2007, age 23 (AAA, MLB): 177.0 IP
              2008, age 24 (MLB): 227.0 IP
              2009, age 25 (MLB): on pace for ~230 IP + playoffs

              Joba:
              2005, age 19 (NCAA): 118.2 IP
              2006, age 20 (NCAA): 89.1 IP
              2007, age 21 (hi-A, AA, AAA): 112.1 IP
              2008, age 22 (MLB): 100.1 IP
              2009, age 23 (MLB): on pace for ~170 IP + playoffs

  • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

    Not that I’m defending Mitre per se, but was anyone else wondering how many of those ground balls he gave up would have been outs if they’d been playing on a grass surface instead of turf?

    • Mike HC

      Good point. I hate playing and watching games played on turf. It is like, kind of a baseball game.

  • Rob in CT

    Mitre has been just good enough to not kill the team. I’d prefer Hughes start, or Aceves, but there are reasons for leaving those guys where they are (health/effectiveness/psyche), even if I don’t love the reasons. So Mitre gets another start. They should definitely try to jockey the rotation such that his starts come against weak teams, if possible.

    Still, there remains the issue of covering for some Joba skipped starts in the near future. Towers? Eek. That’s where I hope they will – finally – use Hughes. We’ll see.

  • Rob in CT

    What’s the deal with Marte’s rehab? Because Coke was a starter in the minors, right? He does a decent job vs. righties, right? If Marte comes back, presumably he’ll get a chance to reclaim the job Coke has been doing (understandably, the Yanks aren’t rushing that). That might be an opportunity to spot-start Coke and rest Joba.

    • Mister Delaware

      Yuck. Once you factor in his stuff playing down over long stints (and the fact that his .359 OBP against versus righties almost has to go up (.235 BABIP)), he’d be Mitre or worse.

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  • gio

    Why does everyone seem to think we should leave Mitre in there until “we start losing the games he pitches”? Eventhough we won last night, it may have cost us a loss in the future, i.e. this weekend vs. RS because it jeopardized the bullpen. Ace I’m sure won’t be available tonight and the fact that Hughes ever entered the game last night is ridiculous. The fact that we won his start should mean nothing in terms of evaluating his performance and making a decision.

  • BG90027

    I don’t think putting Mitre in the bullpen is a good idea because he’s run into trouble in the first inning of every start and then usually settles in. That wouldn’t translate well to a releiver. I’d give him a few more starts as long as he pitches the way he has been.

    I don’t think his WHIP and ERA and lack of length tell the whole story. He’s given up a lot of hits but they’ve mostly been singles and he has recorded a lot of double plays. Giradi also has had a quick hook with him. The most pitches he’s thrown in a game so far is 92 and two of his starts he’s thrown 75 pitches or less. For example, in his second start, he had given up 3 runs entering the 6th (only 1 after the rough 1st inning) and Girardi yanked him after he gave up a leadoff single despite a pitch count of only 74. He was charged with a run when Coke gave up a 2R HR in the inning. The early hooks and the bad first innings make for an ugly ERA but in most of his starts he’s kept the team in the game which I think is all you can really expect from a fifth starter. And maybe with a few more starts, he can get past his first inning jitters.

  • Bo

    Why reinvent the wheel?

    Leave Aceves where has been good all year and the team needs him most. You mean to tell me they can’t find a capable back end starter? Really?

  • http://www.realfakesports.blogspot.com Real Fake Sports

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