What the Blue Jays seek for Halladay

Reliving the A-Rod trade
The best World Series of the decade was clearly 2001

Don’t expect the Roy Halladay rumors to fade away anytime soon. Until the Blue Jays trade their ace, he’ll remain atop the baseball conversation topics. That could be sometime soon, or it could last all the way until July 31. Because the Yankees are the richest team in baseball and perpetually hunt for pitching, stories about Halladay will involve them. I’m already resigned to a few months of Halladay speculation.

We know the suitors. The Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Phillies and even the Mets will factor into the process. A smaller market team might get involved later in the process, but at this point it would be an upset for Halladay to land with anyone else. What we don’t know, though, is Toronto’s asking price. Writers have addressed it, picking out the top prospects from the involved teams. But do those players fit with Toronto’s many needs?

In his National Post column, Jeremy Sandler writes of a modern day reality. As we know, “there will be a whole lot of unfounded and unrealistic talk as the process goes on, especially in an Internet age where even the flimsiest premise can gain traction if repeated enough times.” I’d like to continue this tradition by repeating a rumor Sandler introduces just a few paragraphs later. It’s not completely new, but it might offer some perspective on Toronto’s asking price.

The Jays want a major league-ready arm and bat, both young and affordable enough to stay in Toronto a while, plus prospects for Halladay.

That sounds like an awful lot to ask for a 33-year-old pitcher who will earn close to $16 million and is a year away from free agency. Yet Sandler leaves the terms ambiguous enough for us to wonder what players fill those needs. After all, it’s one thing to be a major league ready bat, but it’s another to be a major league ready bat with serious potential.

Both the Yankees and the Red Sox fill the major league ready arm requirement. The Yankees have Chamberlain and Hughes, while the Sox have Clay Buchholz. Neither team wants to trade those young, controllable arms, but perhaps would consider it for Halladay. Both teams also have high-ceiling prospects in the lower minors, who would presumably fill the “plus prospects” portion of the deal. But what of the major league ready bat?

Some scouts consider Jesus Montero‘s bat ready for the majors, though his catching skills still need seasoning. As Jon Heyman tweets, the Jays like Montero. Then again, all 30 teams probably like him. I won’t harp on this, since we’ve said it dozens of times before, but both Montero and one of Hughes an Chamberlain is too much. One reason is that all three have high ceilings. Another is that trading one means the Yankees are upgrading from one to Halladay. How much is that upgrade worth? I don’t think it’s worth one of those pitchers and Montero.

The question from Boston’s end is of who can fill that major league bat parameter? Lars Anderson isn’t major league ready. Nor is Casey Kelly. Josh Reddick is, and perhaps the Sox would trade him and Buchholz for Halladay. But would the Jays accept that? I guess that depends on how the market develops. If the Red Sox plan to snag Halladay early, though, that probably won’t get it done.

For the Yanks, Austin Jackson would fit the major league ready bat bill. But with Vernon Wells stuck in Toronto for the forseeable future, it’s uncertain whether the Jays would add another center fielder. That brings us back to Montero, at which point the Yankees would probably want to substitute Hughes or Chamberlain for a lesser pitching prospect, probably Zack McAllister. At that point, the Jays would probably decide to sit and wait.

There are other suitors, and perhaps those teams are willing to part with players that match the Jays’ parameters. As it concerns the Yankees, they certainly have the pieces required to land Halladay. The question is of whether they’d be willing to surrender them. Jesus and Hughes/Chamberlain seems like too much. Jackson and one of the pitchers doesn’t seem to fit the Jays’ needs. Jesus and McAllister is more reasonable from the Yankees standpoint, but not much meet Toronto’s requirements.

I ultimately agree with Ken Rosenthal on this issue. “It would be an upset if [Halladay negotiations] ended anytime soon.”

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Reliving the A-Rod trade
The best World Series of the decade was clearly 2001
  • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

    Still wouldn’t make the trade.

    What are the odds Halladay goes nowhere?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph Pawlikowski

      Pretty good, I think.

      • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

        Yeah, my thoughts were always that he’d either go anywhere or go to Anaheim.

        • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

          *not* go anywhere. Typo.

      • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

        +2

        • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

          I’m just racking up the points today. ;-)

          • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

            Ooh, my bad, Joe’s points.

            But I still got 27 points from the previous thread and a point here.

    • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

      +1

    • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

      Before the season or before the deadline?

    • http://www.jefflevyphoto.com/ Jeff Levy

      I agree. Any team like the Yankees who is interested in Halladay has the advantage. An interested team can wait and make a deal for him on their terms. Teams realize how valuable their prospects are and most aren’t willing to put op the propects and cash to sign Halladay long term. A deal for Halladay all depends on how desperate the Blue Jays are to convert Halladay into prospects. The Yankees should take their chances and hope Halladay hits the open market for 2011. They need to keep their promising young talent and consider Hughes and Chamberlin untouchable.

      • CaptainJeter

        I agree. Any team like the Yankees who is interested in Halladay has the advantage. An interested team can wait and make a deal for him on their terms. Teams realize how valuable their prospects are and most aren’t willing to put op the propects and cash to sign Halladay long term. A deal for Halladay all depends on how desperate the Blue Jays are to convert Halladay into prospects. The Yankees should take their chances and hope Halladay hits the open market for 2011. They need to keep their promising young talent and consider Hughes and Chamberlin untouchable.

        I want Halladay, but not at the expense of Montero , Chamberlain or Hughes. Give the Jackson, Romine, McAllister, Gardner and Pena .

  • http://sports-odds.com/images/stories/yankees-arod-teixeira.jpg JobaWockeeZ

    Nova, IPK and AJax. Get it done Cashmoney.
    But seriously those three probably have more value to the Yankees than Halladay.

    • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

      I’d make that trade I think. Tornto would not, IMO.

      • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

        Toronto.

        • Andy in Sunny Daytona

          -32. There goes all of your points.

          • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

            Damn you, Andy.

            Now I’m in -4.

      • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

        I would, too, but there’s no way the Blue Jays would say yes.

        • Zack

          Is it because he forgot to add Melky?

          • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

            Nailed it.

    • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

      “those three probably have more value to the Yankees than Halladay”

      Are you serious?

      • Evil Empire

        18 years of cost control vs 1 year at $15+M

        • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

          When did we become the Rockies?

          • Evil Empire

            Oh, I would make the trade too. But in terms of pure value in a vacuum, you’d probably get more from those 3, current contract statuses considered.

            • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

              I might agree if it weren’t for current roster situations. I mean, you’ve got Sabathia under contract for 6 years, Burnett for 4, and then Joba and Hughes. So assuming all goes well, you’ve got 4 rotation spots committed for the next 4 seasons, which means there just isn’t room for ALL of these guys, so some of them are going to maximize their value to the team as potential trade pieces. Which isn’t a knock on them at all, it’s just based on the reality of surplus.

      • http://sports-odds.com/images/stories/yankees-arod-teixeira.jpg JobaWockeeZ

        Aging, probably declining Halladay for 15-20 million dollars a year not even filling out a need where the Yanks are giving up 3 cost effective players for many years to come. AJax fills in a bigger need in the outfield. The Yankees don’t have pressing needs in the rotation. They could sign a cheap alternative like J-Dusch.

        And they could always sign him next year, or Cain, or Beckett or whoever without giving up the prospects.

        • Evil Empire

          Would love Matt Cain but I do believe he has a 2011 team option.

        • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

          I don’t think AJax is likely to be worth more than Halladay, but that’s at least arguable. The problem with the others, as I said, is that there just isn’t room for them in the rotation, unless you think CC is going elsewhere after his opt out year, Burnett has a major injury, or Joba/Hughes don’t make it as starters. Outside of that, some of those guys are going to either move to the pen or go elsewhere, because you have more potential players than rotation spots. And I still completely disagree that the Yankees don’t have a pressing need in the rotation.

          As for next year’s free agent class, Halladay is likely to get an extension, as is Beckett, and Cain has a team option.

          • http://sports-odds.com/images/stories/yankees-arod-teixeira.jpg JobaWockeeZ

            Honestly I don’t see starting pitching to be a major need.
            CC and AJ are locks. Joba too. Hughes probably. Pettitte if he comes back fills it up. Now for depth we have IPK, Aceves, Guadin and perhaps Nova later on.

            If Pettitte doesn’t come back then again they could sign someone like J-Dusch or maybe Harden and if they need too Lackey.

            • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

              Well I never said they didn’t have the guys to fill the spots, but realistically that’s a rotation with a lot of question marks behind CC.

              • Evil Empire

                Potential 2010 options:
                Doc
                Lackey

                Potential 2011 options:
                Doc
                Lee
                Beckett

                Potential 2012 optons:
                King Felix
                Matt Cain
                Josh Johnson

                At least we will have quality options for the foreseeable future. And it is an absolute must that we get one of those 2012 guys. Give King Felix his $200M deal and never look back!

                • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

                  I don’t know what the budget looks like moving forward, but I don’t necessarily think signing Halladay precludes signing Felix or someone else for 2012.

                • whozat

                  It does. CC+AJ+Doc would be almost 60MM locked into three rotation spots, plus another 60-70 in the 3B, 1B and SS.

                  The only way you can commit another 20+MM in the rotation is for a cornerstone kinda guy, and Doc is just too old for that.

                • Evil Empire

                  I agree with BJ, I do not think it precludes the Yankees from pursuing Hernandez. Just off the top of my head, you have Posada’s $15M annual coming off the books.

                  Felix Hernandez is a “singular talent”, as Michael Kay would say. For the Yankees, they must pursue him if he becomes a free agent. No matter the cost.

                • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

                  Posada’s contract will expire, Mo’s current deal will be up, and Marte’s deal will be up, for a sum total of about $34MM in payroll. Burnett will still be owed $33MM, but with only 2 years left on his deal. They’d probably have to dig deep and stretch the budget a bit to do it, but I think the organization would probably be willing to push the upper limits for a couple of seasons if it meant acquiring Felix.

          • Dr. Lyle Redding

            Every one of you are smoking pinstripes.. again!

            AJax is not worth 10% of Halladay, puuhhhleeease.

            How is it that EVERY blogger on this site thinks Juba and Hughes are both, individually, worth more than Buchholz??? There is a reason only one of the 3 prospects was a starter at years’ end.. and the Yanks really needed starter depth (ok, at least in the regular season).

            Someone please admit it — too many news media stories = too much prospect hype. It will take Juba + AJax + 2 lower prospects for Halladay.

            AND THE REDSOX OFFER OF BUCHHOLZ + KELLY + 2 PROSPECTS WOULD BE BETTER! REALLY….!

        • Jays fan

          When the heck did the yankees start worrying about conserving money? *cough* 200 Mill combined payroll.. more than double than almost every team *cough*…..

          I don’t know which Roy Halladay you were watching last year, but, especially near the end of the year, he was LIGHTS OUT. Need I remind you he 1 hit the Yankees September 4th..? Or that he had 3 complete games against the Yankees alone? If I were you guys, I’d give up every prospect in the system for him. He’s a well known yankee killer, so if cashman doesn’t pick him up, I’m sure Theo will enjoy as much as I do watching the Doc kill the yanks in the post-season.

          What people don’t understand is that Halladay IS the best pitcher in baseball(yes, even better than CC), and certianly the best to ever pitch in Toronto.. And we had roger clemens win back to back Cy Youngs in TO..

          So PLEASE, don’t even think about Toronto accepting anything but an amazing package. That would likely include Hughes/Chamberlain + jesus montero

          • Jays fan

            Oh, yeah.. AA (the blue jay’s GM) said he’s willing to give any team a 72 hour timeframe to discuss an extension.. Believe it or not 15.75 Million is a hometown discount that let the Jays have more flexibility to try and build a winning team.. Not sure if you can hope for around the same money considering the Yanks are loaded, but you never know.

            And don’t think I’m hoping he goes to the Yanks.. Personally, if I had a choice to send Halladay to Boston or New York, I’d pick Boston in a second.

    • Tommy

      Absolutely do it. Really don’t think Toronto takes that, though. However, it looks way sexier than Minnesota’s prize for Santana. And that’s even before the centerpiece got flipped for J.J. Hardy.

  • Zack

    Toronto messed this whole thing up. No one was giving them a Bedard-like return last year, and no one is giving up 2 top prospects for years 33-38 of Doc. Should have taken their best offer last year and moved on.

  • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

    This kind of seems like the wrong way to look at the Halladay issue. What Toronto wants for him is largely irrelevant, because Toronto has pretty much no leverage here. At most, they can drag talks out up to the trade deadline, but the closer to the deadline we get the less value Halladay has, and then Toronto has to pay him for as long as they have him. Plus he has the ability to block trades, limiting Toronto’s ability to threaten to pull the trigger on a deal to Team X if Team Y doesn’t speed things up. So the question really is; what are teams willing to give up for him?

  • Evil Empire

    A core element of this issue is that Toronto is straight up asking for way too fucking much, and most everyone realizes it. I’ve been hearing arbitrary reasons like “the ownership needs to be wowed” and “Halladay is the face of the franchise”. WELL NO ONE GIVES A DAMN. Teams that are stupid enough to trade their farm away have already dried their prospect well up too much (Brewers, Mets). The other teams are either too smart to make a bid at the current asking price (Yankees, Red Sox) or just can’t afford another superstar.

    If Toronto doesn’t lower the price for one year of Doc, they’re going to end up being a 3rd place team in 2010 with Doc on their team and even less hope in 2011.

    Here would be my maximum offer for the guy:

    1 of Joba/Hughes/AJax
    1 of anybody else (excluding Jesus Montero)

    OR straight up for Montero.

    That’s with the contract extension window included.

    • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

      I wouldn’t trade Joba, Hughes, or Montero.

    • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

      I wouldn’t trade Montero for Halladay. And I’m one of the more pro-Halladay people here.

      I’d probably be willing to do AJax and Joba/Hughes, so long as that’s not wildly overpaying relative to what other people are offering.

      • Evil Empire

        Mmm…I dunno. I’d probably be willing to do something like AJax + 2 other guys. I am rather hesitant to part with either Joba or Hughes.

        The thing to remember is that I’m not just saying Joba will be better than Roy Halladay over the next 4 years.

        What I’m saying is that Joba plus whatever else we put the difference of money earned into will be better than Roy Halladay over the next 4 years.

        • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

          I’d prefer to deal Hughes over Joba, but yeah, I agree with your formulation, I’m just putting a higher value on the near term.

          I’d also say that you can potentially mitigate the downside to dealing one of them somewhat by signing Chapman. I don’t have any idea what sort of price he’s reasonably looking at getting, but if it’s workable for the Yankees, you could probably afford to deal Hughes for a top of the rotation now and replace him with Champman in the future.

      • Reggie C.

        I wouldn’t trade Montero for Halladay straight up.

        That’s how much I beleive in Montero’s bat. There’s only a couple minor leaguers who fit that category imo: Heyward, Stanton, Montero, Posey, and D. Jennings. That’s about it. Maybe Anthopolous will end up with a Justin Smoak-like bat (maybe Smoak himself) … but i highly doubt it.

        IF the RS offered Buchholz and Anderson, i wonder if Anthopolous passes since i cant think of another team beating that high-ceiling ML pitcher / high-upside bat combo. Anderson still has got his believers out there, but expectations are adjusted.

    • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

      Meh. I wouldn’t make either deal. I’d rather just keep the high upside talent and not have to pay for a pitcher’s decline years.

      • Evil Empire

        Its still Roy Halladay. It won’t be the next Randy Johnson experiment, and there is a lot of value in having Doc in 2010 compared to having one of Lee/Beckett/Doc in 2011.

        • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

          The price is too high, IMO. I’d rather the Yankees take chances that a quality arm is available post-2010 than trade away high-upside, valuable pieces, along with offering a long term extension before ’10 even starts.

          • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

            We have no idea what the price is.

            • http://sports-odds.com/images/stories/yankees-arod-teixeira.jpg JobaWockeeZ

              In terms of prospects it’s right in this article. Monetary terms I’d say from 80-100 million for maybe 4-5 years.

              • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

                No, what’s “right there in the article” is what Toronto ideally would like to get in return. We have no idea if anyone will offer them that, and we also have no idea what Toronto is willing to settle for in terms of best offers. So we have no idea what the real market price of Halladay is.

          • Evil Empire

            Well you’d be offering a long term contract to whatever quality arm you sign next off season, so I think that cancels out one of your points.

            Its really about the balance of how much Doc is worth in 2010 and the price in prospect talent that performance would cost you.

            We’re getting into the matter now of projecting the likelihoods of performance now. Its more or less a subjective matter when you’re talking about specific talents. You also have to take into context other available prospects options we have, the finite amount of roster spots the Yankees have, and other shit like that.

            I can see very reasonable evaluations that would lead to one thinking that its not worth trading one of Joba/Hughes/Montero. My personal outlook is that Doc is indeed worth it.

            • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

              Well you’d be offering a long term contract to whatever quality arm you sign next off season, so I think that cancels out one of your points.

              But that offer is just for money rather than for money and prospects. If Roy Halladay could be had for just money, I’d most likely be on board.

              • Evil Empire

                That’s why I said “Its really about the balance of how much Doc is worth in 2010 and the price in prospect talent that performance would cost you. ”

                I think the root of this issue is that I value Roy Halladay more highly than you do. You see a 33 year old pitcher on the decline. I say this particular talent, Roy Halladay, deserves more credit than that. I know past performance does not guarantee future performance, but he’s been dominating the AL East consistently for a very long time. Its that consistency – in the same division the Yankees play in – that sets him apart from most other talents. Especially when you take into account his skill sets, from a scouting perspective, you would project him to be someone that ages well and his decline would be on a soft curve.

            • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

              I think Montero looks far too good, and might be able to play a position where that sort of offense is so rare, that you can’t really give him up for a 33 year old pitcher. Someone younger maybe. Joba gives me pause, because he’s young, has great stuff, and has shown the ability to be a very good pitcher at the Major League level, who might just need some time to put it all together. Everyone else I’d be willing to trade in the right package.

      • Stryker

        DING DING DING!! we have a winner!

        why offer up the 2 best position player prospects the yankees have that can potentially fill holes at the major league level fairly soon for a pitcher’s decline years? sounds like something the early 00 teams would do.

        you can’t trade montero banking on the speculation that a) the yankees will make a run at joe mauer and b) they will get him.

        you also probably shouldn’t trade austin jackson because while he may not be a top notch/can’t miss prospect, he’s the best thing we’ve got for at least 2 or 3 years as far as a young, talented outfielder goes. and while mike cameron is a nice one or two year stopgap for the position, there’s also no one close to reaching free agency the yankees could “buy” either that can be a long term option.

    • Tommy

      I like it. I don’t mind trading AJax, but I’m strongly opposed to dealing Montero, even if the Yankees can woo Mauer away from the Twin Cities.

    • ajmares

      Montero straight up is not enough but giving up one of Joba or Hughes straight up is realistic. Both Hughes or Joba at least would be a dominating closer or setup guy for the Jays and likely end up being very good starters as well. I have to beleive the Yankees are going to try and convince the Jays to take a pkg of Joba,Romine & one of Gardner and Melky. No way is Montero going to be included in ANY deal for Halladay period.

  • Ehren

    I wonder whether the Jays have thought about trying to crowbar Vernon Wells into a Halladay deal. Wells has a hideous contract that never matched his abilities, and those are rapidly trending down.

    What are the odds Toronto accepts a lesser package for Roy in exchange for greater payroll flexibility. Sort of like what the Marlins did including Lowell with the Beckett deal.

    If that’s the case (and pretty much ONLY in a case where they don’t have to give up too many prospects), I’d expect the Yanks to make a serious bid for Halladay. Maybe then they could get him for Joba/Hughes and a lower minor league arm.

    I think the Santana negotiations pretty clearly mark the Yankees’ philosophy when it comes to aquiring veteran pitchers: burn money, not talent.

    • steve (different one)

      What are the odds Toronto accepts a lesser package for Roy in exchange for greater payroll flexibility

      1 to 1

      the Jays would bascially give Halladay away if someone would take Wells’ contract.

      but no one would ever do that.

      seriously, if the Yankees took Wells, they could have Halladay for a token A ball arm.

      • Evil Empire

        Yeah, Wells is one of the top 3 untradeable contracts right now, with Zito and A-Rod (heh).

        No team will take on Wells, end of story. Toronto isn’t the only team that needs payroll flexibility.

        • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

          I don’t think A-Rod’s contract is untradeable.

          But yeah, Toronto would love to unload Wells, but no one is taking that. Not gonna happen.

          • Evil Empire

            Who would take on A-Rod? I mean anything is possible if the Yankees eat enough money but seriously.

            • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

              Probably no one, and the Yankees probably wouldn’t trade him. But if he’s productive, injury free, chasing Bonds, etc. I could kind of see an AL team maybe being willing to take him on as a DH, especially since the contract is pretty front-loaded.

              • Evil Empire

                A-Rod might be tradeable several years from now in theory, but I guess I was thinking more along the lines of here and now.

                Still, A-Rod will be getting $20M+ a year into his early 40s. Not sure how appealing that will be to other teams.

                • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

                  Depends on how much revenue they think they’ll be able to make off of him.

                  In any event, I don’t see the Yankees looking to trade him anyway.

            • Tommy

              Yeah, A-Rod is legit impossible to trade. But there’s no problem with that.

          • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

            I think that contract’s untradeable. The Yankees are not eating such a massive amount of money.

    • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

      Including Vernon Wells hurts the trade from the Jays’ POV. Literally no one wants that guy, and for good reason.

      • steve (different one)

        let’s make this interesting at least.

        what if the Jays eat half of Wells’ contract? what does that trade look like?

        • Evil Empire

          Melky and Z-Mac?

        • A.D.

          The problem with Lowell vs Wells comparisons is Lowell had 2/18M left on his deal, while wells has 5/97.5M left on his deal because of the crazy backloading/how the signing bonus was paid, and appears to have lost a lot in center.

    • Tommy

      Think of that. The Marlins could’ve gotten MORE than Han-Ram and anything.

  • http://steves steve s

    I’m skeptical about Boston going all out for Halladay when they have to sign an expensive LF and deal with Beckett once they extend Halladay. Yanks should remain patient on this one and whoever gets Halladay shouldn’t give up more than the Mets gave up for Santana or what the Phillies gave up for Lee. The pressure is on the Blue Jays to make the trade sooner rather than later.

    • Steve H

      I agree to a point, but the Sox would rather have Halladay and lock him up than lock up Beckett. Now to give up the prospects and then do that, I’m not sure. But certainly if the Sox got Halladay they would prefer him to Beckett. How funny would it be, if the Sox traded a bunch of prospects for Halladay, signed him long term and let Beckett go, and then Beckett came to the Yankees. I hate Beckett, and he’s overrated, but I wouldn’t hate seeing him in pinstripes, and as soon as he shaved off his little peach fuzz, he might even be a classy guy.

    • Evil Empire

      A part of me definitely ones to see the Red Sox trade for Halladay. They could manage with a slowly deteriorating offense if they signed Bay and went into 2010 with Doc/Beckett/Lester.

      But they still need a MAJOR impact bat in 2011 and they’ll need to make a hard decision with Beckett. Lester arb will be interesting to see also, especially in the context of Timmy L’s upcoming arbapalooza.

  • A.D.

    Do the Blue Jays pay their draft picks, or are they more like the Mets? If they aren’t big in the draft then the 2 picks for Halladay become less valuable then to a team that will open up to spend on draftees

    • steve (different one)

      last year they were worse than the Mets.

      • A.D.

        Yeah their ’09 draft was a debacle, thus they may value getting already signed players > potential draftees.

  • FanSince’48

    I see Montero’s upside (even if only as a DH) approaching Edgar Martinez levels, and if he becomes a decent defender behind the plate, then, possibly someone like Mike Piazza. We have been spoiled with great offensive catchers: Dickey, Berra, Howard, Posada – these are not common commodities. Perhaps he can continue the line.

    I, for one, do NOT wish to see the second coming of Jesus occur in Toronto.

    I anticipate Hallady would give us 2-3 great years, followed by slow decline – maybe even worse as he ages. This, while Joba/Phil and Jesus enter their respective primes, assuming, of course, they achieve their expected decent upsides.

  • Reggie C.

    Unless the Jays plan to drop big money on the 2010 draft, Anthopolous probably interrupted a few GM dinners last night.

    Holding onto Halladay, only to see him walk at the end of 2010, nets the Jays another first rounder, but honestly, unless that pick yields Bryce Harper or next year’s Tyler Matzek, Canadians might actually get mad at the Jays.

  • A.D.

    Josh Reddick is

    Really, he only has ~130 at-bats above AA and he has a terrible batting line in them.

    • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

      In a way that’s a good thing because 130 AB’s is such a small sample size.

      • A.D.

        Well the point would be one could argue he isn’t major league ready since he doesn’t have the at-bats, nor any success above AA

    • Andy in Sunny Daytona

      Maybe the Yankees should start doing the Red Sox modus operandi. If a guy has some success in AA, push him to the majors, then tell everyone since they have played in the ML, they are already a ML bat. Simple.

  • Rockdog

    I think it would be a mistake to trade Montero for 1 year of the Doctor, but I would consider Hughes OR Chamberlain + a good bullpen arm or two (Coke, etc.), as we have a lot of depth there. Doubtful that Toronto would accept that, but it is clearly a superior offer to a first round pick (which is all they get if the do not trade Halladay.) Agree that this may go on for some time though … but as others have mentioned, all a trade gets you is 1 year + the ability to sign a really big contract.

  • John Adams

    Lets just got after Felix forgot halladay, the king will rule + he’s way younger if were giving up prospects might as well do it for him

    • John Adams

      forget*

    • http://sports-odds.com/images/stories/yankees-arod-teixeira.jpg JobaWockeeZ

      I’d be more willing but I don’t think he’ll be going anywhere. I think the M’s give him an extension.

      • John Adams

        it doesnt hurt to ask right ?

        • http://sports-odds.com/images/stories/yankees-arod-teixeira.jpg JobaWockeeZ

          Nope. But based on what Boston was going to give up I doubt he’s going anywhere.

    • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

      Seattle will not trade Felix, even if we give up Joba AND Montero.

      (BTW, this Devils-Bruins game is really good.)

  • Manimal

    Montero+Hughes/Joba+ Miranda+one of a list of A/A+ pitchers would get it done.

    • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

      WAAAY too much.

      • Manimal

        I’m not saying its preferable, I’m saying it would get it done. maybe they could replace hughes/joba with someone like mcAllister.

        • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

          Still too much. I wouldn’t want to trade Montero.

          Devils win! What a game.

          • Andy in Sunny Daytona

            +32 (Jesus’ number for Magellanes in VWL).

    • Salty Buggah

      What? Montero+Hughes/Joba would get it done too (but thats too much for me) so why give up even more.

  • Tony

    Funny that so many seem willing to trade more for Halladay than they were for Santana who was better and several years younger.

    Don’t do it.

    • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

      Santana’s last year in Minnestoa:

      219 IP, 9.66 K/9, 4.52 K:BB, 1.36 HR/9, 1.07 WHIP, 3.82 FIP

      Halladay last year:

      239 IP, 7.83 K/9, 5.94 K:BB, 0.83 HR/9, 1.13 WHIP, 3.06 FIP

  • Mike Pop

    Wouldn’t the package they want be like one the Marlins would ask for Josh Johnson?

    I’d much rather deal for him.

    • larryf

      I agree with this. If we could get Josh Johnson with the same package-he’d be my choice too. Can we get him for a lesser package than Roy’s???

      • Evil Empire

        I would think a better comparable trade package for what it would take to land JJ is Felix Hernandez, not Roy Halladay.

        • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

          I think you’re probably talking Montero+AJax+McCallister+filler to get Johnson.

          • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

            On the other hand, if neither Joba nor Hughes are going in the package maybe you try to offer Montero, IPK, Nova, McCallister, and filler and hold on to AJax.

            • Evil Empire

              I’d go Montero + any two people besides Joba/Hughes/AJax.

  • ultimate913

    No need to trade for Halladay. Go as high as Joba + A-Jax + high ceiling pitching prospect. If the Jays don’t bite, forget Halladay. Next year we’ve got a nice bunch of pitchers hitting the market. No need to give up the farm on top of paying him as if he was a free agent. Montero should not be included in any trade for Halladay. We just won the world series. Let’s chill out. To be honest though, I view the Yankees 2010 season as the Knicks 09 – 10 season. It means nothing and I’m just looking foward to them going all out the next season. Whatever the Yankees do in the 2010 season is just extra, to me. The Yankees winning the WS this year makes me one happy fella for a while.

    • Evil Empire

      I think even what you’re offering is too much.

      2010 is huge to me though. The Yankees could try to establish another dynasty. The current roster is absolutely built to win now (as it always is). Our shot at winning it all in 2010 is as good as we can expect it to be for a while with cornerstones Jeter, A-Rod, Mo, Jorge, etc. “not getting any younger” as Mike Axisa likes to say.

      • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

        I would argue that they’re a “win now” team even more so than usual, given that they have an aging core of productive players that are going to be around another 2-4 years. Getting younger is great, but you’re still looking at having a core of productive-yet-seasoned players in the next 5 years or so. Maybe it’s just me, but I’d be looking to maximize the number of championships I get in that 5 year window.

        • Evil Empire

          Agreed.

          I’m more tempted to sign Matt Holliday than trade for Doc though, to be honest, if the price is right. If he takes 5/$90M I say that is the best option in terms of major acquisitions.

  • Glenallen Hill

    I wouldn’t even bat an eyelash at including Joba or Hughes in a trade for Roy Halladay.

    Why is everyone so opposed to create a trade for Roy around Joba and Jackson? I like Jackson and all, but outfielders are a dime a dozen. You’re telling me that the Yankees would not be able to find a future replacement for Jackson? You might be overvaluing this kid juuuust a little.

    If Joba pans out to be the next Roger Clemens like many here seem to think, the Yankees will be in the position to grab him when he hits free agency. It’s not like he’ll be 35 by the time that happens. He’ll sill be in his mid to late 20s.

    CC, Halladay, AJ, Hughes looks a hell of a lot better short and long term than CC, AJ, Joba, Hughes.

    I know many beg to differ, but I’m just throwing my two cents out there.

    • Drew

      Cost controlled Joba for 4 years>>>>>>>> Doc on a one year rental.

      If Doc is in for a 3/4 year extension which would have him in a Yank uniform for 2010,11,12 and 13/14, I may make that deal.

  • theyankeewarrior

    I want nothing to do with Halladay if it means we have to give up one of Hughes/Joba and one of AJax/Jesus but the one thing I tend to disagree with most people on is Doc’s “decline”.

    Just because we were burned by Randy Johnson and some other “declining” pitchers doesn’t mean that it will be applied to Doc. He will be a top 5 ML starter in 2010, 2011 and his “decline” will make him a solid #2 or #3 in ’12-’14. The guy has 4 + pitches. He knows how to work batters in and out and keep the ball down.

    He will last well into his 30’s. Are we all forgetting that the Yankees won 3 World Series in 4 seasons with guys like Cone, Clemens and Wells?

    • theyankeewarrior

      Excuse me, I meant 4 WS in 5 seasons. And 2 outs away from 5 in 6. Those were all veteran staffs. Halladay will not be a concern, short of some kind of major injury, which you are risking nomatter who you acquire.

  • aj

    I don’t think Halladay is trading before the season. So since the Yankees are usually int he race in the middle of the Summer, we can wait and get Halladay for even cheaper. no reason to mortgage the future for one year of halladay.

  • http://www.sportsandthecity.com eyebleaf

    So Montero and Hughes?

  • DJ

    Joba, Ajax, and Romine should get it done or at least get us very much involved in the conversation i would think. Ajax is beyond overhyped and overrated. Joba is a head case and Romine has no use if Montero is in fact going to be a catcher.

  • David

    They should just take Wells contract back. He still costs less than Damon/Matsui/Nady did last year, as is better than signing Cameron to a 1/yr $10 million or the 20-30 Million that Damon is looking for over 5 years. His defense is still good. Then you can ease Ajax in.

    Wells and Halladay for McCallister and Melky?

  • Tim

    How much more appealing would it be for the Jays if the Yanks would take back Vernon Wells (and his big contract) and give them budget relief? The Yanks could afford it, and have to surrender a bit less in terms of prospects/players perhaps. How about Melky or Gardner, Romine or Cervelli, Brackman or Melancon, and a more far off prospect?

  • Eric

    Honestly I think if were going to give up some of the top young talent in our organization I think I’d rather have Josh Johnson (SP from Marlins, legit ace, 25 years old, and under control for 2 more years) although I think it’s safe to assume a package for Johnson would have to be more/better than one for Halladay given the age factor. Would love to have either one of them in pinstripes though.

  • Real World

    I think he Doc ends up in Philly. They have the pieces to move, both at the majors, and in the minors. Toronto is not going to get 2 major league ready players, and prospects, for a guy who’s great, but 33, signed for 1 year, and going to command huge dollars to sign an extension that will pay him for past performance. Ultimately a team that feels the need to win (Redsox/Mets/Dodgers) would end up overpaying as the Jays want teams to. However, even those teams are a long shot at doing that, since respectively, it’s not their business model (Sox), they don’t have the pieces (Mets), or are in a dire financial (McCourts divorce). In the end I think he goes to the Phillies for a package of Happ+, or a mixture of minor leaguers. Toronto, in the end, might hold onto him until the break if they feel the deals aren’t worth it. He will net then 2 picks for sure. I doubt that happens though, since they won’t want to pay him, nor will they want to risk injury to their 33 year old asset.

    I’d much prefer to move more to the Marlins for Johnson, than I would give up any two from the Hughes, Joba, Montero, Jackson mix. I’d be willing to deal one, with varying pieces attached, but not 2 in the same package. For Johnson I would though, since you could realistically sign him to a 4-5 year extension for $50 or so. Granted he’s less proven a pitcher, but the cost, and performance expectation moving forward, is much more attractive than Halladay.

    • SP

      You people are hilarious. What has baseball come to where a couple prospects are worth more than future HOFers, especially to the freaking YANKEES? Doc is NOT “declining”. He’s 32 and is actually getting BETTER. A couple years ago he added a cutter and went from elite to superhuman robot awesome. These types of pitchers don’t just fall off. They pitch into their 40s easily.

      I don’t think the league realizes just how good he is, which is why a part of me, as a Jays fan, hopes he ends up with you guys and he finally gets the attention he deserves. Go to his Wiki page and read what his peers think of him. His work ethic and mental preparation are unsurpassed by any current pitcher. He’s a class person as well. Pitchers like him come around a couple times a generation and when you get the chance to get him, you do it. If you want him, it’ll cost Montero, Hughes, and Jackson, but you’ll forget about them when you’re winning multiple WS with him.

  • Real World

    He’s exceptional. Arguably the best pitcher in the entire league. That doesn’t change the fact that he’s going to be 33 this coming season. Is he worth a $100 over 5 years, which is what he might demand in an extension?

    If he cost Montero, Hughes, and Jackson, then he won’t be with the Yankees. I think Montero could be labeled as “untouchable” by the Yankees. I think everyone else is on the table.

  • matt

    i agree with montero and one of those pitchers being too much.. how about packaging chamberlain, montero and kennedy for king felix.. the mariners wont be able to afford him, and hes young as it is so for the yankees itd be a pitcher they could have for another ten years and be their 1-2, i mean if you are going to give up stuff for halladay, why not go with a younger and better (no offense to doc on this one).. it just makes more sense.. why not go younger, king felix is the way to go because hes going to bolt the second he gets a chance and from wut i hear he is seeking 200m range

  • Dr. Lyle Redding

    Every one of you are smoking pinstripes.. again!

    AJax is not worth 10% of Halladay, puuhhhleeease.

    How is it that EVERY blogger on this site thinks Juba and Hughes are both, individually, worth more than Buchholz??? There is a reason only one of the 3 prospects was a starter at years’ end.. and the Yanks really needed starter depth (ok, at least in the regular season).

    Someone please admit it — too many news media stories = too much prospect hype. It will take Juba + AJax + 2 lower prospects for Halladay.

    AND THE REDSOX OFFER OF BUCHHOLZ + KELLY + 2 PROSPECTS WOULD BE BETTER! REALLY….!

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  • mr

    wow! I dont know where to start. It seems like most people here dont value prospects, and dont value Halladay. The NYY hace CC, so they are not in a hurry to deal for him. They will need to send Joba over. They are just their to drive up the price for Boston. For the Yanks it would take: Joba, A-Jax, Montero, and a lower prospect. You know why? Because they are trading for the best pitcher in baseball. The RS, itd take: Buchholz, Kelly, Reddick, and lower level prospects.

  • ScottyD

    What’s the deal here?? Has anyone here ever seen Doc pitch??? That is, of course, other than watching him tear your teams a new one? I’m a Jays fan, and I for one know how terrible Toronto’s offense is……and Doc still beats the best teams in baseball ( consistently ). If he was with the Yanks or Red Sox……or even the Rangers, he would put up 25 wins…easy. By the way….he does have 4 pitches, and 3 of them are fastballs. ( 4 seamer, cutter, and a sinker )….the other is the best curve in baseball. Decline my ass!!
    I think he goes to the Red Sox..because their top young arms are proven ( Buckholz, Bard ). Also the prospect Kelly is very interesting because he could fill one of two holes the Jays need filled.