Archive for Roy Halladay
Only four questions week and they kinda suck. Nah, just kidding. I say they’re good every week, so I wanted to see if anyone is actually pays attention. Remember, the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar is the best way to send us anything throughout the week.
Keith asks: Since there is lots of discussion this offseason about the Yankees’ minor leagues and their development of prospects, I’ve been kind of obsessed with the what ifs. One that particularly sticks out is Mike Trout. It’s been widely reported that the Yankees scouts were on him and of course the Angels ended up drafting Trout with the Yankees compensation pick. If the Yankees don’t sign Mark Teixeira and instead draft Mike Trout, would he even be in the Majors yet? Would they have found a way to screw up his development too?
First things first: if the Yankees did not sign Teixeira, their first round pick would have gone to the Brewers for CC Sabathia. If they did not sign Teixeira and Sabathia, it would have gone to the Blue Jays for A.J. Burnett. They would have had to pass on all three to keep their first rounder, and even then the Angels still would have had a pick (the compensation pick for Francisco Rodriguez) before the Yankees. Ken Rosenthal said the Halos had Trout second on their behind only Stephen Strasburg, so I assume they would have still taken him before New York had a chance at him.
Anyway, just for the sake of argument, let’s assume the Yankees somehow landed Trout in the draft that year. I think that in some cases, with historically great players and generational talents like Trout, the development part almost doesn’t matter. They’re going to succeed no matter what because there isn’t even that much developing that needs to be done, the raw talent is enough. Alex Rodriguez was like that. Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Rickey Henderson … players like that. They’re so good and physically gifted that the only thing that can stop them (other than injury) is a lack of effort and work ethic on their part. I truly believe that. Trout was so good that not even the Yankees could have screwed him up. He would have been in the show right now and still been a star.
Kevin asks: Obviously they’ll try starting first but any chance Michael Pineda‘s future with the team is ultimately in the bullpen? It wouldn’t put the stress of 170+ innings on his arm and that way they could possibly get some return on the investment.
Oh it’s definitely possible his future lies in the bullpen. He kept running into a wall around the 70-ish pitch mark during his minor league starts this year, and after such a major shoulder surgery, there’s a chance he may not be able to hold up for 100+ pitches anymore. I’m not sold on the idea that relieving on an unpredictable schedule is less stressful than having a routine and starting every five days, but a move to the bullpen is the next logical step if the starting thing proves to be too much for Pineda.
Ryan asks: What are your thoughts on Roy Halladay? Even though he is older and had the injury, I think the Yankees should sign him. Still has the stuff and experience, similarly to David Cone when they signed him.
I strongly disagree there. He doesn’t have the stuff. He might as he gets further away from the shoulder surgery in May, but Halladay was a shell of his former self late in the season. It wasn’t even Jamie Moyer stuff. No life on his fastball, loopy breaking balls, no command … it was ugly. He looked no part of a big league pitcher. Watching him pitch like that in September made it hard to believe he was the best pitcher in the world as recently as 2011.
The Yankees can’t help themselves when it comes to once-great big name players, so I do expect them to kick the tires on Halladay this winter. He has AL East experience obviously, though I’m not sure that matters much at this point. He’s not the same guy. He hasn’t been the same guy for two years now. There is no way I would guarantee Halladay anything — minor league contract or no contract, that’s it — based on that look in September, there’s no chance whatsoever I would guarantee him a rotation spot. Absolutely zero. If he wants to take a minor league deal and earn his way onto the roster, great. If not, oh well.
Ben asks: It’s pretty staggering to think about all the pitching St. Louis has right now: Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez, even Jaime Garcia. It’s fair to say they’d benefit from trading one or two of those guys. If you were the Yankees GM, what would you think a fair package would be to trade for Lynn or Kelly? Would we possibly have the pieces to trade for Martinez or Rosenthal?
Definite no on Martinez and Rosenthal. As for Lynn or Kelly, I have to think a shortstop would be atop the Cardinals wishlist. It’s hard to believe they did so well this season with a total zero at short in Pete Kozma. The Yankees don’t have a shortstop to give up unless St. Louis is particularly high on Eduardo Nunez, which I doubt they are. Jon Jay had a better year than I realized, so Brett Gardner doesn’t make much sense for them either. I’d have no trouble getting behind a Gardner for Lynn or (especially) Kelly trade, but that doesn’t seem realistic at all. I’m not sure there’s much of a fit here otherwise. The Cardinals are pretty stacked everywhere except short.
Got a massive mailbag for you this week. I dunno, I just couldn’t stop once I got going. Blame yesterday’s day off. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send us stuff, mailbag questions or otherwise.
Nathan asks: What’s up with A-Rod and the lack of power? Is he not fully healthy, losing bat speed, or just getting old?
This came in before Alex Rodriguez hit those two homers on Wednesday night, somewhat obviously. Anyway, I think it’s all of the above. He’s going to turn 37 next month and not many players maintain 30+ homerun power into their late-30s. Only 34 players age 36 or older hitt 30+ dingers in a single season (49 total instances), and the vast majority of them took place during the offense-crazy late-1990s/early-2000s. The power decline has been a gradual thing for Alex, look at his ISO through the years…
That looks an awful lot like normal age-related decline. That monster 2007 season (.331 ISO) came at age 31, right at the end of his prime years. On top of getting old, he also had the torn labrum in his hip. Players need their lower halves to generate power and Alex’s was compromised a bit. Lots of people will blame the past PED usage and hey, they might be right, but I don’t think there’s anything that unusual about a player on the wrong side of 35 losing his power, even a historically great player like A-Rod.
Eight questions this week, most about pitching in some form or another. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar any time you want to ask a question.
Dan asks: When Soriano comes back, do you think he automatically gets the 8th inning back, or will they keep Robertson there and put Soriano in the 7th? Maybe, if that happened, he would opt out and leave money on the table after this season…
Oh yeah, Rafael Soriano‘s definitely getting the eighth inning back. No doubt about it. And you know what? It’s probably better that way. Joe Girardi will be free to use David Robertson to wiggle out of jams in the sixth and seventh innings again, plus Soriano will get the easy job of starting innings fresh with no baserunners. As for the opt-out, just forget about. He’s not getting anywhere near that much cash on the open market, so the Yankees are stuck with him for better or for worse.
Shai asks: Where is Christian Garcia in rehab from TJS? Is there a chance Yankees re-sign him (if he plans on playing baseball again)?
It’s been about 15 months since Garcia blew out his elbow and had his second Tommy John surgery, so he should be healthy enough to throw with full effort and what not. Last we heard (in February), he was planning to throw for scouts but the Yankees had no intentions of re-signing him. Garcia’s going to be 26 in August and he’s faced a total of 126 batters since 2008. Bringing him back would be nothing but nepotism at this point. Great arm, too bad it was made of glass.
Josh asks: This question is a little out of left field (hardy har har) but why is Colin Curtis always on the bench with the team during games?
He’s probably just rehabbing with the team. I can’t think of any other reason, honestly. If that’s true, then good for him for sticking around instead of just packing up and spending the downtime at home. It shows determination and good makeup, or something.
Ryan asks: What kind of prospect is Caleb Cotham? Does he still have any upside? High K numbers so far.
Cotham came out of Vanderbilt with knee problems and almost immediately needed another knee surgery after signing for $675,000 as a fifth rounder in 2009. While rehabbing from the knee, he suffered a torn labrum and had surgery to fix that. He’s finally healthy now and has appeared in four games for Short Season Staten Island this year (7.2 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 13 K).
Cotham was considered a better prospect as a reliever at the time of the draft, and he regularly sat 89-92 with his fastball out of the pen. I have no idea if that velocity has come all the way back after the shoulder trouble. He’s also shown a very good slider, which is probably what he’s using to rack up all those whiffs. His best-case scenario before the injuries was a late-inning strikeout reliever, but we need to see how his stuff rebounds and if he’s able to stay healthy. Cotham’s interesting, for sure, but there’s a lot of risk for moderate reward.
Anonymous asks: Would an international draft and slotting ruin the chances the Yankees have at a good farm system since most talent comes through IFA for them? Or would an international draft just destroy baseball in other countries like Puerto Rico?
Oh an international draft (and slotting as well) would definitely hurt the Yankees. It would hurt every team, in reality. The draft gets all of the attention because it’s easy for us to follow, but the backbone of the Yankees’ farm system has long been it’s Latin America program. Taking away the ability to freely sign any player would be a significant hit. I do think there’s some concern about the consequences of an international draft, because the talent in Puerto Rico basically dried up after those players became subject to the draft. They were getting lower bonuses and couldn’t choose their own team, so many ended up playing other spots.
An international draft would be a logistic nightmare, and I’m not sure if they can figure one out for this upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement due in December. That would be great news for the Yankees.
They’re similar in the sense that they’re bat-first second baseman, known for their ability to hit for average with what was considered average power. Cano has obviously soared past that power projection. CoJo’s a .287 career hitter with a .138 career ISO. Cano’s minor league career? A .278 batting average and a .147 ISO. Identical, for all intents and purposes. There are two very significant differences between the two though…
- Plate Discipline: Joseph draws significantly more walks than Cano did. In fact, he’s drawn 32 more minor league walks than Robbie in 548 fewer plate appearances. Cano’s never been a fan of ball four, never was expected to be.
- Contact Skills: Robinson’s ability to get the fat part of the bat on the ball is pretty freakish, you can’t teach that. He’s swung and missed just 6.2% of the time in his big league career, well below the league average. In 2,106 minor league plate appearances Cano struck out just 261 times (12.4%) and never more than 86 times in a season (he did that at age 19). Joseph has already struck out 259 times in his career (16.6%) with a 107 whiff season to his credit. When you work deep counts and draw walks, you’re going to strike out. It’s part of life.
Cano’s defense was questioned as well, he was expected to move to third or even the outfield because most felt he wasn’t quick enough for the middle infield. He’s obviously managed to become a fine second baseman and there’s no reason to expect him to move off the position anytime soon. Joseph is kind of in the same boat, generally considered to slow for the position. Cano, Chase Utley, and Orlando Hudson are three pretty notable examples of guys that weren’t expected to cut it in the middle infield but went on to be standout defenders at second because they worked hard at it, so it’s not like that kind of improvement is unheard of. It’s just tough to do. Joseph’s prospect status is at its peak right now, but I’d still take Cano at his prospect peak. That was right before they called him up in 2005.
Bill asks: Who has the better chance at getting to 3000 strikeouts, CC or Halladay? CC has 1913 and is three years younger than Halladay who has 1852. However, Halladay pitches in the pitcher friendly NL.
I would have to think CC Sabathia has a much better chance. He’s already head of Roy Halladay on the raw total and has a huge head start in age, enough that the AL-NL difference probably won’t compensate. For Doc to get to 3,000, he’d have to strike out 200 batters a season (he’s been between 206-219 the last three years) every year until his age 40 season. Sabathia has struck out no fewer than 197 batters in a season since 2006, so if he averages 185 whiffs a year, he’d have to pitch until he’s “just” 37. I don’t think there’s any question that Halladay is the superior pitcher and has had the better career overall, but he had some injuries when he was younger and those cost him some strikeouts.
Joey asks: So, I’ve noticed a lot of these players with [no-trade clauses] have good teams listed. Why is this? So they can get compensated more? Or maybe in Soria’s case he doesn’t want to set up. Whats the deal with that as the deadline approaches?
It’s just leverage. All these guys list the big market teams like the Yankees and Red Sox and Tigers and Phillies so that if a trade does happen, they could pay to get them to waive it. Take Joakim Soria. A non-contender isn’t trading for him, if anyone does it’ll be a legit contender like the Yankees. They can buy him out of the NTC. I’m sure there are some guys that don’t want to pitch in New York or Boston, but I’d say the vast majority of these teams are listed in no-trade clauses as a way of creating leverage. Agents aren’t stupid.
Boy am I happy this guy is in the other league now. Roy Halladay took home his second career Cy Young Award today, finishing ahead of Adam Wainwright by a solid (102 point) margin since he received all 32 first place votes. Doc is the fifth player to win the award in both leagues, joining Gaylord Perry, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez.
In his first season with the Phillies, Halladay led the league with wins (21), innings pitched (250.1), complete games (nine), shutouts (four), walk rate (1.1 BB/9), strikeout-to-walk ratio (7.3), xFIP (2.92), and fWAR (6.6). In 33 starts, Halladay walked just 29 men unintentionally. He’s the first player to strike out more than 200 batters and walk fewer than 30 since, fittingly enough, Cy Young back in 1905. Congrats to Doc, he was a worthy foe with the Jays. Have fun, National League.
Over the past four seasons, Roy Halladay has started 18 games against the Yankees, including 12 over the past two. In those 124 innings he’s struck out 84 Yankees and walked just 20, allowing 13 home runs and 38 runs, 34 earned, overall. That gives him an ERA of 2.47 and a FIP of 3.69, against his four-year rates of a 3.11 ERA and 3.26 FIP. Clearly, the Yankees are glad to have Halladay out of the division. His numbers, however, appear to be a bit out of line.
Photo credit: AP/Bill Kostroun)
The Yankees have scored more runs than any other team in the AL over the past four years, leading the league three times. How is it, then, that Halladay has performed better against them than he has against the rest of the league? The difference is quite large, over a half run per nine innings. Over the same, admittedly small, 124-inning sample, he would have allowed 43 runs to the rest of the league, and keeping with the same earned-to-unearned run ratio he would have allowed 48.
The easy, abstract narrative is that Halladay rises to the occasion. When facing the Orioles and the Royals he’s merely among the league’s best pitchers. When facing the very best offensive team in the American League, Halladay turns into something greater, a man without peer. Or, if we want to turn the narrative to the Yankees’ hitters, we can say that they beat up on weak pitchers, but show their true colors when facing the best. Either way, there’s not much evidence to substantiate such claims.
The Red Sox have sported formidable lineups over the past four years, and have contended with the Yankees in each season. They haven’t scored quite as many runs, but they’re still near the top. As against the Yankees, Halladay started 18 games against the Red Sox, and lasted two more innings. Yet his ERA, 3.64, and FIP, 4.12, are substantially higher — not only higher than the Yankees, but higher than his performance against the league. That distribution makes sense. While Halladay ranks among the best, he still probably faces more trouble from better teams. But still, not the Yankees.
The claim of the Yankees faltering against stronger competition is true, but it’s no more true for the Yankees than with any other team. Again, we expect that they’ll beat up on the weaker competition and struggle against the stronger. As we saw in the 2009 breakdowns, the Yankees fare all over the place against the league’s best pitchers. We also know that these performances come in small samples, and can fluctuate greatly from year to year. For instances, we saw Jon Lester absolutely dominate the Yankees in 2008 before they tattooed him in 2009.
That’s not to say that neither of those factors play into the results we’ve seen. Maybe Halladay does come into starts against the Yankees a bit more focussed than normal. Maybe the Yankees are a bit intimidated by him and take swing of a slightly lesser quality. Combine that with the low predictive value of short sample size numbers, and it’s not as difficult to understand why the Yankees performed worse against Halladay.
Another consideration lies in the FIP/ERA discrepancies. There’s an enormous gap when Halladay faces the Yankees, about 1.22 runs. Over the much larger four-year sample, 7.5 times larger than the one against the Yankees, Halladay’s ERA and FIP are separated by just 0.25 runs. As Halladay pitches more and more innings against the Yankees, I’d expect that discrepancy to lessen, moving Halladay’s numbers against the Yankees more in line with his career, or at least recent, rates — perhaps even higher, because of the Yankees’ potent offense. Similarly, I’d expect his numbers against the Red Sox to fall, though perhaps not all the way to his recent rates because, again, the Sox sport a better than average offense.
The good news for the Yankees is that they’ll be facing pitchers of a lesser quality than Halladay in 2010. As Kevin Long said, “It became a joke. Sometimes it felt as if he was out there on one day’s rest just to face us.” Chances are the Blue Jays won’t deliberately line up Halladay’s replacement to pitch against the Yankees whenever possible. Instead, the workload will be spread normally across the entire rotation. It means more of lesser pitchers, and it should improve the Yankees’ performance against the Blue Jays in 2010.
From Toronto’s view, however, that’s just fine. They made the trade knowing what they were giving up when facing the best of the AL East. The idea, so they hope, is to eventually replace Halladay with Kyle Drabek while upgrading the rest of their rotation, while improving their offense with Brett Wallace. The balance of power might shift a few years down the road, but for 2010 the Yankees should see something of an improvement against the Jays.
Via Richard Griffin, the Yankees offered Jesus Montero to the Jays in exchange for Roy Halladay back when Toronto was still fielding offers for their ace and the former Cy Young Award winner. And that’s it. The Yanks’ brain trust offered a straight up, one-for-one swap, however Toronto turned it down and went on their merry way.
Can you imagine that? It would have been quite the blockbuster, no? I’m not sure how I would have received such a deal. On one hand it’s the best pitcher in baseball in exchange for a Double-A prospect without a clear cut position, but on the other hand, it’s Jesus frickin’ Montero. Wow.
Via MLBTR, Blue Jays’ ace Roy Halladay is set to join the defending NL Champs … as soon as he agrees to a contract extension. Based on what we know right now, Cliff Lee would go to the Mariners, and presumably a boatload of young players would go to Toronto. The Yanks have been connected to Halladay all offseason, and Joel Sherman mentions that they talked to Phightin’s about Lee, however didn’t like the price.
“Pitching, pitching, pitching — and left field.” Whenever we’re talking about potential Yankees moves, we’ll refer back to that mantra from Cashman. He made the team’s priorities clear on Day 1 of the Winter Meetings, and with the reported signing of Andy Pettitte and trade for Curtis Granderson, we can see he’s serious. There are multiple instances of “pitching” in that mantra, though, meaning the Yankees aren’t done strengthening their 2010 pitching staff, whether that be through free agency or a trade.
The biggest name on the trade market, of course, is Roy Halladay, and the Yankees continue to monitor the situation. Joel Sherman likens the situation to Mark Teixeira. Last year, after signing CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, Cashman had to convince ownership to expand payroll for Teixeira. His arguments were strong, and obviously ownership eventually agreed. If Cashman really wants to add Halladay for 2010, he’ll have to come up with an even stronger case.
Sherman notes two points on Teixeira that won over Hal Steinbrenner last winter. First was the swing from the Red Sox to the Yankees. Teixeira was clearly the Sox’s top target, and to lure him away would not only improve the Yankees, but hurt the Sox. It’s not smart to make moves just because of your rival, however, and that’s the basis for the second point. The Yankees would eventually need another bat, and Teixeira appeared to be the best not only in 2009, but for years to come. Those points, unfortunately, won’t play as well with Halladay.
Yes, the Red Sox are involved on Halladay, but it doesn’t appear they’re as serious as they were on Teixeira. That could change in the next few days or weeks, but Theo Epstein has indicated that the next year or two are part of a “bridge period,” which could mean that the Sox won’t make an enormous splash. Again, this could all be posturing and could change at any time. But as it stands now, the Sox are not as serious players for Halladay as they were for Teixeira.
To the second point, the Yankees might, at some point in the near future, need to add another big arm. Future free agent markets, however, could feature a number of them. Halladay himself, in fact, could be a free agent at the end of next season. A number of other arms could hit the market as well, so the Yankees certainly could find that big arm without sacrificing prospects. Plus, if Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes takes a step forward this season, the need for a big arm will be reduced.
Cashman’s trump card this year, should he choose to play it, is the dominance factor. A rotation of Sabathia, Halladay, Burnett, Pettitte, and Chamberlain/Hughes would be the league’s best. Even if they lost one of those five to injury, they would still be in decent shape. Then, as Sherman notes, when they get to the playoffs they wouldn’t have to start anyone of short rest. Pettitte would be an excellent fill-in for Game 4s. In that sense, the Yankees could justify expanding payroll for Halladay.
Yet payroll is not the only consideration. The Blue Jays will not give away Halladay. It will cost plenty in prospects. If the Yankees are so inclined, the Blue Jays have great interest in Jesus Montero. He is the Yankees top prospect, and his loss would be even tougher because the Yankees just traded their second best prospect, Austin Jackson. Will the Yankees trade one of the top five hitting prospects in the game, even for Roy Halladay, even when their next best hitting prospect isn’t nearly as good?
Further complication the issue is how the Blue Jays view Montero. He’s still a catcher, and figures to start 2010 at that position in either AA or AAA if he stays with the Yankees. According to Sherman, however, the Blue Jays view him as a first baseman, and accordingly wouldn’t accept him as the center piece of a deal. This seems like posturing to me — an attempt to get even more out of the Yankees. Most of the reporters covering the trade assume that the Yankees would have to package Hughes or Chamberlain with Montero to acquire Halladay. I just don’t see that.
Best pitcher in baseball or not, Halladay is under contract for only one more year, at a slightly below open market salary. The Blue Jays have a right to demand two top flight players for him, but, because you never get more than what you ask, they’re going to start high. As they continue talking to teams, I think that price will come down. Montero himself will not get it done, but Montero and a lesser pitcher might. This, of course, depends on offers from other teams, but the general idea is that no team will come close to a Montero/Chamberlain package.
Over the past few days, the Angels have emerged as a Halladay suitor. The latest report has them willing to trade Erick Aybar, a player they considered untouchable in July. They’ve since traded prospect Sean Rodriguez and lose Chone Figgins to free agency, though, so they’d be suffering a huge hit by losing Aybar — it could lead to a left side of the infield featuring Brandon Wood and Miguel Tejada. But even with Aybar, the Angels don’t appear to have an adequate pitcher. Reports have mentioned Joe Saunders, but he’s arbitration eligible and not a top flight starter. The Jays, knowing their position in the AL East, want young, controllable, high-ceiling players. Saunders and Aybar likely won’t cut it.
If the Angels don’t have what the Blue Jays seek, if the Red Sox want to build with young players over the next two years, and if the Dodgers’ ownership situation precludes any big payroll additions, the Yankees are in a good position on Halladay. He still won’t come cheap, but it’s doubtful he’ll cost Montero and Hughes/Chamberlain. That should make the Yankees a bit more flexible in dealing for him. I still doubt they do it, but given their position compared to other teams, the chance is there if they want it.
Update (11:54 a.m.): Despite earlier reports to the contrary, Mark Feinsand says that the Yankees have not yet made an offer to Andy Pettitte. Indications are that the team will make him a one-year offer some time today in excess of the $10.5 million he earned in 2009. “They don’t intend to low-ball him,” Feinsand’s industry source said.
Update (7:22am): Buster Olney says that Pettitte has decided to pitch in 2010, and of course his preference is the boys in the Bronx.
7:12am: Via Joel Sherman, Andy Pettitte has rejected the Yanks’ first offer, a one year deal believed to be worth about $10M. He’s the only player the Yanks have made an offer to since the end of the World Series. Sherman basically says the deal will get done at some point, and the Yankees believe Pettitte wants to return next year. After incentives, Pettitte pulled in about $10.5M in 2009, though it’s not clear if this new proposal contained any such escalators. He’s certainly earned a raise over his $5.5M base salary. Sherman also mentions that the Yanks have told the Blue Jays to stay in touch about Roy Halladay, though no proposals have been made.