Dec
02

Pondering a pinstriped Halladay but only for a year

By

One of the Yanks’ primary objections to any trade for Roy Halladay is the need to, in effect, pay twice to acquire the pitcher. The team will have to send some highly-touted prospects and a young Major League pitcher to the Blue Jays for the rights to Halladay, and then the Yanks would have to sign him to a long-term contract extension as the pitcher sits just one season away from a potential free agent payday.

We have, of course, been down this road before. In December 2007, the Yankees opted against acquiring Johan Santana because the team knew CC Sabathia would be available for just money after the 2008 season. This year, the team has been hesitant to leap into the Halladay fray because they know some top pitchers will hit free agency in both 2010 and 2011. Even if Doc is better and more durable than Santana, the Yankees aren’t going to change an approach that led to a World Series title.

But what if the Yankees only have to pay once for Halladay this year while gaining the opportunity to recoup some of the cost? Joel Sherman presents a one-year scenario in The Post today, and it goes a little something like this:

[O]ne faction of the Yankee front office has advocated trying to trade for Halladay, but not extend his pact. That way they would get Halladay on a very good contract for 2010 ($16 million) and then offer him arbitration after the season to secure two draft picks as a way to recoup some of the prospects given up in the trade.

According to Sherman, this idea is “not a strategy with much traction” within the Yankee Front Office, but I like the approach. It carries with it an idea that the Yankees would not have to give up as much to the Blue Jays if they aren’t requesting a negotiating window. It would simply be a player-for-prospects swap that would net the Yankees Roy Halladay’s age 33 season and the potential to pick up two first-round draft picks in the 2011 draft. With the Blue Jays are reportedly asking for a Major League-ready pitcher and an impact bat, the draft picks would definitely help offset the loss of young players.

Furthermore, Toronto could prefer this approach as well. What happens, for example, if the Blue Jays grant a team a negotiating window, but the team and Halladay can’t come to terms? Sherman, in a blog post, reported that Halladay is interested in Santana/Sabathia dollars, but Halladay will be five years older than those two were when they received their lucrative deals. It’s easy to see how a negotiating window could result in no trade.

There are, however, a few too many roadblocks for me to believe that a one-year rental would be a viable solution. First, the Blue Jays would have to feel that the Yankees’ offer remains the strongest even if other teams want the negotiating window. Perhaps, though, the other teams — assumed to be the Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels and Phillies — aren’t too keen on giving too many years and too much money for a 33-year-old pitcher. If no one wants a negotiating window, the Jays may not have that leverage. Right now, no one knows.

The other major problem is Roy Halladay’s full no-trade clause and his desire for some stability. With the no-trade clause, Halladay can veto any trade, and if a team is not willing to give him the dollars, he will simply reject the trade and file for free agency. Additionally, Halladay knows that the next deal he signs will be his last big contract, and he’ll want the stability and the guaranteed money up front. For pitchers, the end is just one arm injury away.

In the end, the idea of a one-year marriage with Roy Halladay is very appealing. It remains, however, a long-shot to come as the end to this saga. And so we wait for the Halladay sweepstakes to take shape.

Categories : Hot Stove League
  • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

    If the Yankees give up prospects for Roy Halladay with an extension, I’ll be unhappy. If they give up prospects for just one year of Roy Halladay, I’ll be even more unhappy.

    • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

      Now doesn’t that depend upon just whom they would be giving up?

      • Free Mike Vick

        maybe…but only if we’re giving up junk players.

        assuming the Hughes, Chamberlain, Jesus, Ajax names are being thrown about…i would also be unhappy with dealing those kind of players for only 1 year of Doc.

        • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WppcSY4SsSk barry

          Dude none of these guys, especially Ajax are gauranteed to become even above average players. Montero may be a great hitter but if his athleticism doesn’t improve his value could tank greatly. So you give up maybe less of the 4 to get just one year, and if he succeeds the Yankee’s easily win any bidding war after the one year rental.

      • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

        True. If they could somehow swing Jackson+ (not including Montero, Hughes, or Chamberlain), I’d be happy.

        • Evil Empire

          But AJax is going to be the next great Yankee centerfielder!!!!

          Seriously though, it would be pretty easy to pull the trigger on AJax + IPK/ZMac/whoever else they wanted

          • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

            Definitely.

            As long as it’s not Chamberlain, Hughes, or Montero, I’ll most likely be down.

      • Chris

        I would hope so. Everyone assumes that a trade for Halladay would involve one of Hughes, Joba or Montero. When you look back at the Santana trade, there was no one in that deal anywhere near the level of those three. I don’t expect that to happen again, but with teams putting more value on prospects in recent years that might be the new norm for these types of deals.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          But, again, the Santana trade was Santana for non-premium prospects from the METS, with a negotiation window and extension.

          I don’t see why the Jays would be willing to take non-premium prospects for Halladay if he’s going to the Yankees or Red Sox. The Twins benefited by sending Santana far away from the AL playoffs. The Jays would not be getting that benefit by taking a pu-pu platter from one of their two main divisional rivals.

          • Ed

            The Twins benefited by sending Santana far away from the AL playoffs. The Jays would not be getting that benefit by taking a pu-pu platter from one of their two main divisional rivals.

            The difference is the Twins were already a competitive team and were intending on remaining competitive even after trading Santana. The Jays aren’t competitors now, and definitely won’t be if they trade away Halladay.

            If the Yankees were thinking about trading for Halladay and not extending him (which would be obvious if the Yankees don’t ask for a negotiating window), then it’s perfect for the Jays. Strengthen the Yankees in a year the Jays can’t compete while weakening them long term.

            As for the extension scenario, it depends on when the Jays think they can compete. Does a Yankees or Red Sox package that helps make them competitive in X years outweigh your rival having a 33 + X year old Halladay?

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              Good point.

            • Mike HC

              Except the Jays are competitive. They are just in a division where it takes 95+ wins to take it every year.

          • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

            Because the Blue Jays aren’t in the same position the Twins were in. As you say, the Twins wanted to keep Santana out of the the AL playoffs, because they had a shot at getting to the playoffs even without him. The Blue Jays aren’t in any sort o position to make the playoffs this year, in all likelihood, with or without Halladay, and if they don’t get him dealt before the deadline, he’ll be free to go anywhere next season anyway. So for the Blue Jays, while they mght like to get Halladay out of the AL, or at least out of the division, getting the best return possible is more important than where he lands.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              … which would make the Jays LESS likely to take a Santanaesque package than the Twins would.

              So, you can forget about the Jays taking a non Joba/Hughes/Montero package.

              Agree?

              • http://pinstripepalace.blogspot.com/ Brien Jackson

                Well that obviously depends on what they’re offered.

  • ColoYank

    Your scenario assumes of course, Doc turning down the Yankees’ offer of arbitration after 2010. If he accepts, at least the team wouldn’t be on the hook for long-term FA dollars.

    • http://i33.photobucket.com/albums/d80/madamsteph/Sports/alg_melky.jpg Drew

      Turning down Arb is a given.

    • Zack

      Getting him for 1 year, then having him accept arb would actually be the better than just 1 season or 5 seasons.

    • Ed

      Roy Halladay wanting to go with one year contracts through his early to mid 30’s is probably a dream scenario.

      • Zack

        Enjoy his good years, and if eventually leaves you get the two picks. Or if he accepts after he starts to show his age then you can still deal him to the NL.

  • Free Mike Vick

    i can differently see where a not giving him a new deal would be helpful. As you say you’ll get a couple of draft picks once he leaves…and you won’t have to worry about him possibly breaking down.

    However…i value 3 or 4 years of a Doc Halladay on the staff and in the dugout more than a couple of draft picks. I’d give him a new deal if we traded for him.

  • http://i33.photobucket.com/albums/d80/madamsteph/Sports/alg_melky.jpg Drew

    I never thought about recouping the prospects via draft picks.

    • ColoYank

      Except that what you’re giving up aren’t prospects any more. We’re talking Phil or Joba and an impact bat. Who’s that, Robbie Cano? Jesus Montero?

      • http://i33.photobucket.com/albums/d80/madamsteph/Sports/alg_melky.jpg Drew

        Nope. We’re talking prospects. Non Jesus. If prospects can’t get it done then it’s a no go. Simple as that.

      • Chris

        You’re not giving up anywhere near that much. That’s what Toronto is asking for so that’s the ceiling for any deal. Realistically, they’ll end up settling for much less or not making a deal.

    • Zack

      That makes the assumption that the new picks turn into successful prospects, which I think it’s fair to say that, that is no guarantee.

      Although this scenario there would be 0% chance that Joba/Hughes/Jesus are in the package; which means a low-ball offer that could be easily beaten or not accepted.

      • OldYanksFan

        The Sox have a lot more $$ to spend then we do, and probably need Halladay more. We will never get him ‘cheap’ (meaning no 2 of Joba/Phil/Montero/AJax/Cano) as the Sox will be willing to give Toronto a decent return.

        LSD anyone?

  • A.D.

    The issue is that the Blue Jays won’t offer any less for 1 year of Halladay vs 1 year + extension.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph Pawlikowski

      offer = accept, I’m assuming.

      I’m not so sure about that. It will certainly depend on how the market plays out. As I explained to Ben before, if the Sox agree to a deal with the Sox, and then John Henry cheaps out on the extension talks and the deal falls through, that’s a mess for the Jays. What’s that headache worth to them?

      • A.D.

        Yeah offer = accept.

        Well I guess what it all comes back around to is how badly do they want to deal him. I’m under the assumption they’re fine keeping him for the rest of the year, and getting 2 picks, unless they can get something good on the trade market.

      • Ed

        Good point on the extension talks failing fallout. Reminds me of A-Rod for 5 seasons of Manny falling through, which lead to Texas ending up with A-Rod for 3 seasons of Soriano + a low minors prospect.

        • A.D.

          Issue there was the players union not allowing A-Rod to change his contract as the Sox had wanted.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            Hmmm… the Sox didn’t get ARod because they wanted him to renegotiate his contract down… they didn’t get Tex because they wouldn’t pony up the last 10M…

            Maybe John Henry’s right, and they really are a small market team?

            Naaaaaaah, they’re just dumb.

          • Ed

            Right. The specifics don’t match exactly, but it’s the same idea. Texas made a trade contingent on contract negotiations. The negotiations fell through, and as a result Texas had to accept a lesser package elsewhere.

            Also, there were rumors that A-Rod didn’t want to change his contract, but didn’t want to come across as the bad guy in the situation. Solution was to have A-Rod say yes and look like a good guy, but have the union step in and block it.

            • A.D.

              Wasn’t it the Sox that made the trade contingent on contract negotiations?

              • Ed

                Yes, of course. Any implication otherwise was unintentional.

                • A.D.

                  Cool, just making sure I was remembering correctly.

      • toad

        Isn’t it likely that the Jays would not agree to a deal with a negotiating window unless they were assured, by the Sox or whoever, that the offer to Halladay would be something that was liklely to lead to a deal?

  • JobaWockeeZ

    If Halladay can be had without giving up any one of AJax, Montero, Joba, Hughes and ZMac then I’ll be for it. It probably won’t happen though.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Seconded.

      I, also, would be all for that thing that you said that would never, ever happen.

    • jsbrendog

      i would agree but would take zmac off the list. if he is the stumbling block for getting roy with some other parts then you do it.

    • Evil Empire

      You’d really let ZMac get in the way of a trade for Doc? Seriously?

      • Free Mike Vick

        LOLz

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          For some reason, this “do we include ZMac in the untouchables list” mini-discussion reminded me of Blazing Saddles.

          Olson Johnson: All right… we’ll give some land to the n#$%&ers and the chinks. But we don’t want the Irish!
          [everyone complains]
          Olson Johnson: Aw, prairie shit… Everybody!
          [everyone rejoices]

          • Evil Empire

            My favorite part of that movie:

            Jim: [taunting Klansmen] Oh boys! Lookie what I have here! [pulls Bart out from behind rock]
            Bart: Hey, where da white women at?

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              BABY, PLEASE, I AM NOT FROM HAVANA!!!

              • toad

                “One false move and the n***** gets it!!!”

                • http://twitter.com/riddering Riddering

                  It’s twue, it’s twue, it’s twue!

      • JobaWockeeZ

        Meh I just don’t want Halladay at all unless he’s really really cheap.

  • Steve H

    Ehhh, not a big fan. 1st round draft picks are beginning to become overvalued in that, #1 they miss as much or more than they hit, and #2, The Yankees pick up guys with 1st round talent in the later rounds of the draft by paying over slot. No #1 pick (from losing an arb. guy) will likely replace a Hughes/Joba/Montero, etc. In time, it’s a possibility, but no better a possibility than picking a guy in the 9th round that has 1st round talent and paying him 1st round money.

  • Steve H

    To further my point above, look at the 1st round picks in the past 10 years. Hughes has been the biggest hit, and it has taken 5 years for him to make a difference. We know a 2010 Hughes can make a difference. If we take a prospective Hughes in the 2011 draft, we may have to wait 5 years to determine simply if the guy can make the majors, and replace the 2010 Hughes, 5 years after the fact.

    2009 Slade Heathcott OF Texas HS, Texarkana, Texas 29
    2008 Gerrit Cole RHP Orange (Calif.) Lutheran H.S. 28
    2007 Andrew Brackman RHP North Carolina State 30
    2006 Ian Kennedy RHP Southern California 21
    2005 Carl Henry SS Putnam City HS (OK) 17
    2004 Philip Hughes RHP Foothill HS, Santa Ana, CA 23
    2003 Eric Duncan 3B Seton Hall Prep (NJ) 27
    2001 John-Ford Griffin OF Florida State U 23
    2000 David Parrish C Yorba Linda, CA 28
    1999 David Walling RHP U. of Arkansas 27

    • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

      Cherry picking the Yanks’ late-round first round picks doesn’t help your argument though. Take a look at first rounders across the board over multiple years, and you’ll see more hits than misses. Plus, the Yanks would be giving up prospects — not proven players — who are equally unlikely, if not more so, to pan out.

      • Steve H

        But if the Yankees let Halladay go, it will again be a late 1st round pick, not a top 10 pick. Picks in the 20+ range are a crapshoot, and the Yankees can get similar talent in a 5th round pick. As far as not panning out, where would Phil Hughes go in the 2009 (or 2010) draft? It certainly wouldn’t be in the 20-35 range. I’m all for Halladay with no Joba/Montero/Hughes involved, but if they get him, they might as well sign him long term.

    • jsbrendog

      yes but the talent avaialble at 16-20 is a lot different so if a team in that are signs halladay well then. but you cant rule out also that a team like the natinals comes in with a protected pick an gobbles him up and youre effed in the a

    • Free Mike Vick

      Eric Duncan.

      i Lol’d

      John-Ford Griffin

      i Lol’d harder.

      David Walling

      Well…i won’t lol at this one.

    • http://i33.photobucket.com/albums/d80/madamsteph/Sports/alg_melky.jpg Drew

      Joba was a sandwich pick if I remember correctly. That’s very nearly a first rounder. He shot up pretty damn quick.

      • Zack

        Exactly.
        HS pithcers take longer than college pitchers.

      • Steve H

        Though Joba was a top 10 talent who fell due to injury concerns, he was a risky pick. Joba circa 2010 is much more proven and valuable than when drafted, so even if you can draft a Joba like talent now, but have to trade Joba to get Halladay for a year, the risk is huge.

        • Angelo

          Fun fact:

          The Yankees got Joba as a supplemental pick for losing Tom Gordon. I believe Gordon went to the Phillies…Either way I don’t think Joba liked the minor leagues very much since he was so mean to them.

  • JMK aka The Overshare

    Just to sort of rehash a bit of what has already been mentioned. What if the Yanks get Halladay for say Jackson, Z-Mac and, Higashikowa or Romine. Roy plays all of 2010, Yankees win another championship. The off-season comes and they really don’t want to give a long-term, expensive deal to an over 30 pitcher. Understandable. They offer arb., he rejects. Another team signs him, Yankees get draft picks.

    Is this crazy? I haven’t been behind getting Halladay (giving up more future value than the present+future of Halladay + long contract, IMO) but this allows us to still pursue Felix in the future, while getting Halladay and increasing our short-term, one year needs. The draft picks would pretty much cancel out, right?

    • jsbrendog

      like i said above what if a team in the first 15 draft spots signs him? the level of pick decreases. yes u still get it but…i dont know what i think. its like playing russian roulette no matter how you splice it once u trade, if you trade

      • JMK aka The Overshare

        Sure, it’s possible. Generally speaking, teams in that lower half won’t dole out a big, big contract because their payroll is low. I’m not advocating doing anything like this, I’m just throwing an idea out and seeing what others think.

        Personally, I think it’s best to make small, minor moves this off-season and season, and strike big with King Felix or another big-time FA. But not this year.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      he draft picks would pretty much cancel out, right?

      Probably not, no.

      • JMK aka The Overshare

        I meant the draft picks from the Yankees signing King Felix and another team signing the arb.-declining Halladay.

    • JobaWockeeZ

      It’s really depending on who the Yankees trade. If it’s Joba, Hughes or Montero then I’d keep them over the draft picks.

      If it’s Nova, IPK and Romine then the draft picks could help and Halladay for a year might be worth it.

    • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

      If the package was Jackson, Z-Mac, and others, I’d do it.

  • Jim

    Why give up near major league ready prospects for draft picks which likely will not pan out?

    What if Halladay blows out his shoulder (or insert injury here) and the arbitration plan backfires? (See Ben Sheets 2008)

    Pass on this plan.

    • Angelo

      I forgot that Halladay is not durable or one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Your right, it would be completely stupid because all of these minor league prospects will be very good players.

      If the Yankees can trade anyone besides Joba, Hughes, or Montero I’d be all for it. Who in their right mind wouldnt?

  • Reggie C.

    I’d stick with the loss of Hughes or joba + B-level prospects for Halladay + extension. Halladay has a terrific chance to age well and remain a front-line starter for the next half decade.

    Recouping a couple first-rounders is pretty poor compensation. Tyler Matzek demanded “unprecedented” money to sign and still only fell to #11. Matzek was considered the best lefty HS’er since Cole Hamels. The days in which talents like Matzek fall to us in the last 10 picks of the 1st round are over.

  • The Mad Prince in Pinstripes

    This possibility makes zero sense to me as Toronto will not trade this guy for lesser prospects. Why would they? Why wouldn’t they just hang on to him and get those same two draft picks from whoever signs the guy?

    As you point out, Halladay will want to get paid too.

    That this would even be considered a possibility is a HUGE stretch.

    Sounds like the Yankees are returning fluff to the Sox.

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

    Here should be the Blue Jays’ calculation:

    If Halladay stays for 2010 and walks, you get two draft picks in the 20-35 range, because Halladay will undoubtedly be one of the top 3 Type A free agents, and he’s going to sign with a title-contender team (i.e., picking at the bottom third of the first round).

    So, the players you accept via trade, whether the team gets a negotiation window or not, must be at least one player who has a greater value than two draft picks in the 20-35 range.

    With that calculus, if I’m Alex Anthopolous, I’m not trading Halladay to the Yankees for anything less than at least one of Montero/Joba/Hughes, whether Halladay has a window or not. I’d rather have the two picks in the 20-35 range than Austin Jackson and Zack McAllister.

    JMHO.

    • JMK aka The Overshare

      But he’ll also have to sign them. They already have six draft picks of the top 97 picks in the 2010 draft. It would be awesome (for them) if they could stockpile picks and pay, but that’s kind of iffy.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        If they’re not paying Halladay, they should be able to find the money to pay these kids.

        You gotta start spending money somewhere.

        Don’t forget, they already dumped Alex Rios’s money.

        • JMK aka The Overshare

          I hear you. They should, but they may not. I believe they’re in ownership limbo (Rogers is trying to sell?), in a dead stadium, with little to look forward to for the next few years.

          If I ran a mid-market team, I’d spend a ton of the draft (and IFA) and player development. It would be wise for them to scrap the aging veteran signings and just spend their resources on young, projectable talent. Become the Marlins that retain some of their better players when they’re arb. eligible. They could conceivably have 11 picks in the first three rounds of the next two drafts. That’s not a small amount of money, so it’s not a lock that they’d sign a lot of those picks.

        • Angelo

          +42

    • A.D.

      That certainly should be the thinking, but it depends on actual value. Montero, Joba, and Hughes are all worth more than currently holding a late first round pick, namely because they all would/were mid to late first round talents/taken there, but now there’s a ton of uncertainly taken out of the equation (though obviously much remains), since these players have progressed, and their initial draft bonuses have been paid, so the Jays would only have to pay league min salaries followed by arb.

      Personally I think Z-Mac could be valued as a late first rounder at this point, for 1 he was a second rounder to begin with, bonus has been paid, and at this point he’s a AA/AAA pitcher guaranteed with plenty of promise of being a future ML mid level starter, which essentially you’d take with your late 1st rounder, see Ian Kennedy.

      Given Ian Kennedy was a late first rounder he could probably also be valued here.

  • Grover

    In retrospect Cashman wishes he’d pulled the trigger for Santana. He will not make the same mistake twice. You do not pass on best in breed and Halliday is all that.

    • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

      In retrospect Cashman wishes he’d pulled the trigger for Santana.

      I am 100 percent certain that you are 100 percent wrong. Need we even get into this yet again?

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      http://www.bingegamer.net/wp-c.....wesome.jpg (safe)

      I’m sorry, what was that you said? I couldn’t hear you. Repeat it, please.

      Sincerely,
      Brian “Kirk” Cashman

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      You do not pass on best in breed

      Damn f$%&#ing straight, you don’t.

      Sincerely,
      CC Sabathia, free agent signee extraordinare

    • Steve H

      Please expound on this thought. I would love to hear your justification.

    • Free Mike Vick

      i don’t think he wishes he would have done the trades the Twins were demanding.

      i do think he wishes he wouldn’t have hung up on the Twins when he did.

      You hear that once IPKs name was brought up…Cash hung up and they didn’t talk again. I think Cash wishes he would have stayed in a little longer to see if the price could have been dropped.

      • Steve H

        Even if it was just IPK+Melky (and it wasn’t) and they got Santana, they never would have gotten CC.

        CC+Contract>>>>>Johan+Contract

        CC+Contract+Melky+IPK>>>>>>>>Johan+Contract

        Had Cash not been able to sign CC, yeah, he might regret it, but it worked out perfectly.

        • Free Mike Vick

          i would never say never to anything when it comes to the yankees.

          would it have happened? probably not. Doubtful might be the nicest way to say it.

          would i say it would never have happened? No.

          • Steve H

            Agreed, shouldn’t have said never, but I just don’t think it would have happened. Without knowing for sure if having both was an option, I’ll definitely take the way it turned out.

    • Evil Empire

      Obvious troll is obvious?

    • Raf

      im sure Cashman smiles every time he thinks about passing on the Santana trade.

    • Slugger27

      cc sabathia is 3008, and johan santana is 2000 and late

      • DonnieBaseballHallofFame

        Weak rap line bastardization aside… I would take Santana on this team any day of the week. If we had gotten Santana we might have been able to get CC cheaper and or avoid having to sign AJ.

        Johan’s only major life problem is being on the Mess, if he was on the Yanks everybody here would love the guy.

        • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

          Weak calling the Black Eyed Peas a rap group aside…. There’s no way that CC would have signed for cheaper just to play with the Yanks because of Johan, and the odds of them getting both were slim to none. Plus who would have pitched the 8th this year?

          Johan’s other major life problem is his tendency toward surgery, the decline in fastball velocity, and his decreasing K rate while playing in the NL. I’ll take CC.

          • DonnieBaseballHallofFame

            “Weak calling the Black Eyed Peas a rap group aside”

            First off that is not where the line originally came from, but I am sure you fancy yourself a rap expert as well as a baseball one. And B.E.P. Started out minus the vanilla broad many years ago as a rap group and that is pretty much what they still are. I remember Will when he could not get arrested trying to hang out in Hollywood hotspots (but the man always found a way in the party). All B.E.P records they do now are half way remakes of former rap / dance hits from the 80s anyway. Supersonic etc. So please back up off me on this one there buddy. I know more about rap music than you know about the subway system and baseball “advanced metrics” put together.

            “here’s no way that CC would have signed for cheaper just to play with the Yanks because of Johan”

            He may have signed with the Yanks or somebody else cheaper because the Yanks would not have needed him as much. No way he got what he got last year without the Yanks being desperate. And they were desperate.
            You have no inside knowledge on this so it is just your opinion, just like it is mine buddy.

            “Plus who would have pitched the 8th this year?”

            So is that why we had to save the big 3? LOL. Somebody else would have pitched, and I bet they would have done OK.

            “Johan’s other major life problem is his tendency toward surgery, the decline in fastball velocity, and his decreasing K rate while playing in the NL. I’ll take CC.”

            I would take both. Johan over AJ.

  • Grover

    Was it Joba or Hughes and Melky or IPK? Cash would do it in one little heartbeat.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      No, he wouldn’t.

      He wouldn’t trade Joba or Hughes for Santana. Nor should he have. He was correct in that calculation.

      And please, use the reply button.

  • Rose

    So let’s say Halladay comes over in this hypothetical trade for some prospects on a 1 year term…and he heads into free agency. Who’s going to want to give up 2 draft picks AND spent tens of millions of dollars for a 34 year old Roy Halladay on a long term deal at this point??

    • Angelo

      The team who gets Halladay after this hypothetical 1 year term only gives up one first round draft pick. The other pick the former team receives is a supplemental draft pick that does not come from the new team.

      In other words the new team only loses one draft pick likely from the 20-30 range.

      Former team gets one of their draft picks from the sandwich round.

      • Rose

        Yeah, my bad. I wrote 2 after reading all this stuff all day and having it in my head. Still, who is going to sign a 34 year old pitcher significant amounts of money on the long term…besides maybe the Yankees lol

    • Slugger27

      dudes hes one of the 5 best pitchers in baseball…. nobody cares about a 1st round pick if it significantly helps their WS chances… nobody that wants to sign halladay in 2010 (and thats probably any contending team) is gonna let a draft pick stop them… dont be silly

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph Pawlikowski

        This. It might affect your decision when you’re signing a middle reliever, but not when you’re going after a top pitcher or hitter.

        • Rose

          The stressed part of my question wasn’t the draft pick…it was the 34 year old asking for a multi-year extremely expensive deal…that I thought was unlikely.

          • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph Pawlikowski

            Agreed on that part. Ben and I were talking about this. It might be why an extension isn’t realistic here.

    • A.D.

      Then you can take him year to year as he accepts arbitration.

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

    Jordan Bastian, MLB.com’s Jays reporter, emphasis mine:

    http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.co.....8;c_id=tor

    If the Blue Jays do not trade Halladay this offseason and the club is forced to watch him walk away as a free agent next winter, Toronto would likely have to settle for a pair of compensatory picks in the 2011 First-Year Player Draft. By dealing him now, the Jays can potentially land Major League-ready players to help Anthopoulos strengthen the team’s core.

    One way for the Jays to possibly increase the return in a Halladay trade is to grant the acquiring team a window in which to negotiate a contract extension as a player. It is not guaranteed that Halladay, who has never experienced free agency in his career, would be open to talking about a long-term deal, though.

    I think Sherman is misreading this story.

    The Jays wouldn’t want a Joba/Hughes/Montero centered package with a extension window, but be willing to settle for a package without them if no window is granted.

    The Jays would want a Joba/Hughes/Montero centered package regardless, and if a window is granted to extend Halladay, they’d want MORE added onto that already solid package of MLB-ready players.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Bah, formatting fail.

      The second “quote” is my thoughts. Shouldn’t be indented.

    • Rose

      OK. So what about a deal with the Yankees WITHOUT the window and without those 3 players…OR a deal with another team WITH the window and a package not as good as those 3 together…which would they prefer?

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        Here’s what they’d prefer:

        At least one good, MLB ready, future-star-potential player.

        From the Yankees, one of Joba/Hughes/Montero. Otherwise, no deal (with the Yankees). If the Yankees won’t cough it up, take a quality player from the Sox (Buchholz, Kelly), Phillies (Drabek, Taylor), Dodgers (Lambo, Billingsley), etc.

        If NOBODY gives you at least one good blue chipper, let him walk and take the two picks.

        The baseline is the Brett Wallace/Matt LaPorta level from the Holliday/Sabathia deals. At least one stud, or take the picks.

        JMHO.

        • Chris

          Although the Twins took less for Sabathia. I think part of it will also come down to the $16M owed to Halladay. Dealing him and saving that money would have a positive impact on the club – even if you don’t get top prospects back.

          • Rose

            Although the Twins took less for Sabathia Santana. I think part of it will also come down to the $16M owed to Halladay. Dealing him and saving that money would have a positive impact on the club – even if you don’t get top prospects back.

            • DonnieBaseballHallofFame

              I do not buy that. You are not going to see Halladay get dumped just to save 16M, you are going to have see some serious talent, otherwise you keep him and cop the draft picks at the end of year.

              Halladay is not a scrub, he is a guy that the Jays will retire a number for some day. Their fans love him, after he is gone they have nothing else but the promise of the future. A future of the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays kicking their head in….and a possible problem in the O’s in a couple of years if they can get some pitching.

              • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                I agree with DBHOF.

                Halladay’s only on the books for another year. They can afford to sit on his salary until a good deal comes along.

                Halladay’s not Wells or Rios; he’s not a contract that cripples your franchise that you’d take pennies on the dollar to dump.

        • Rose

          If you had to rank Joba/Hughes/Montero…by value…who would you let go of first and who would you keep. Assuming we have absolutely zero needs OR we have the same needs for all.

          • Grover

            Montero, Hughes and Joba

            Montero is a hitter at the double A level who may be able to catch, first base is taken for a few years and rookies do not DH. Highest bust quotient as he is the longest wait.

            Hughes has two pitches and a history of arm trouble when he starts. Middle inning relievers can always be picked up at the deadline.

            Joba should be Mo’s heir apparent if he cannot mature in to a top flight starter. I would do the same thing as last year and hope for better results. At playoff time a decision would be made if he starts or relieves. Pettite won’t last forever.

            Halladay’s bust potential is minimal. The movement on his pitches can withstand losing a little velocity as he ages.

            • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

              Hughes has two pitches and a history of arm trouble when he starts.

              Hughes has history of other injuries but none of them are arm trouble.

              • Grover

                My bad. When he was out on the 15 day disabled list in April 08 and transferred to the sixty day in July I thought it was a shoulder issue. I thought he also missed time in 06 with shoulder issues. I think the two pitches (fastball and curve) limit him to being most effective one time through the order. I hope he develops a reliable change.

          • TheLastClown

            I understand the hypothetical, but isn’t this akin to saying, “How can I drive this Lamborghini, assuming that there aren’t any concrete medians, street signs or traffic laws?”

            The trifecta of Joba/Hughes/Montero has to be evaluated based on current and projected needs. This is the reason I would include AJax in the mix.

            Giving up any of these players will open up holes to be filled by more big-ticket FA in the future.

            We’ve got to see is Montero can stick at catcher, and AJax can provide league-average offense from CF. We’ve also got to see if Joba & Hughes can be successful mid/back rotation guys in their first full seasons of MLB starting.

            All that being said, I say Joba is most valuable, then Hughes, then AJax, then Montero.

        • Rockdog

          Totally agree. And I think that if you are the Yankees, you have to seriously consider a trade that costs Joba OR Hughes + some lesser prospects (I was thinking Coke, or some other potential bullpen arms, as we have depth there).

          Here is my thinking: Hughes or Joba MAY end up being a 1 or 2, but the odds are that they won’t reach that level. In Halliday, you have a sure thing, albeit one that is going to deteriorate and will be expensive. But a trade for Halliday allows you to spend less on other starting pitchers over the next few years, and does strengthen the team materially.

          I would also echo what other have said: I tend to trust Cashman and the Yankees on this. While Cash’s record in by no means perfect, I have generally been pleased with the moves he has made — even most of the signings and trades that didn’t work our (Vasquez, Weaver, etc.) seemed reasonable at the time.

          • TheLastClown

            But a trade for Halliday allows you forces you to spend less on other starting pitchers over the next few years because that money is allocated to Halladay, and does strengthen hamper the team materially.

            There.

        • SM

          Do you think his trade value goes up if it is midseason, as with the stud trades you mention?
          Are teams willing to ‘pay’ more for less of a cost when the added benefit of the playoffs is a reality?

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            They might be.

            The days of getting two studs for a guy are probably over, but the Jays can wait it out for one stud, or let him walk and bet that one of the two top-35 picks they get becomes a stud.

            • Sweet Dick Willie

              Halladay has a full no-trade clause, and has said that once he reports to spring training, he will veto any trade.

              So his value drops to 2 draft picks once he reports to spring training.

  • Charlie

    all these halladay articles are getting annoying. its not worth joba/phil plus others plus $ and a potential long term committment. just bring back petitte and the yankees will probably have a better rotation than last year, if not better. and uh, they won the world series with last years rotation.

    • TheLastClown

      I think these Halladay articles are useful, because they’re constantly shining new light on an otherwise tired subject, but I guess it’s also fun to ridicule people who put up thoughtful Yankee content almost hourly.

      Why don’t you write a guest piece all about how the Yankees won the WS last year? I’m fairly sure that’ll be new to most readers.

    • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

      You know what, Charlie? I’m going to continue to force you to read our free site. If the articles are annoying, feel free to read something else. Annoying is listening to you complain.

      • Rose

        [song notes]
        Well, there’s a rose in a fisted glove…And the eagle flies with the dove…and if you can’t be…with the one you love…love the one you’re with…love the one you’re with…
        [song notes]

      • Charlie

        dude, don’t worry, i love the site. i probably could have worded that a little better.

  • damon enjoy 27…think 28

    Yankees DON’T DO RENTALS,they buy you once,stop dreaming !!

  • DonnieBaseballHallofFame

    I do not see us getting him for one year. I think somebody steps up to the plate and makes a move that will be better than that for the Jays purposes.

    To me the only way you can justify a deal for Halliday is that you are going all out to try to win 2 to 5 more world series in the next 5 years knowing that you will have a virtual AARP All Star team of severely overpaid talent at that 5 year mark.

    The possible upside to signing Halladay long term and paying him is if his play does not drop off and you have an ace still in case CC opts out. I see CC using the opt out to get a year or two tacked onto his deal down the line and maybe a couple mill added to his other years.

  • Grover

    I would like nothing better than to sign Halliday next offseason and pay the price of a couple of picks. I would not be pleased to see the Sox or Angels acquire Halliday with prospects and have him start game one against us in the playoffs. He would be favored over anything we have or can sign from the free agent scrap heap this year.

    • jsbrendog

      halladay. for christs sake its fucking halladay

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Would I like to have Roy Halladay on the Yankees? Yes, I would.

      Can the Yankees beat a Boston or Angels team that has Roy Halladay on it in a short series? Most-friggin-definitely yes, we can.

      If Halladay ends up on the Red Sox or Angels, it will be unfortunate, but I’m not going to cry about it. We still have a championship-caliber team. We still have CC, AJ, Joba, Hughes, Mo, ARod, Tex, Jeter, Posada, Cano, etc. We’ll probably have Johnny and Hazmat back; if we don’t, we may replace them with Cameron or Holliday or both.

      We’ll still have lots of money to play with during the winter of 2010-2011.

      We’re still better, no matter what happens.

      • Reggie C.

        Imo,
        Halladay, Lester, and Beckett >>> CC, Burnett, and Pettitte

        Its not a series-definitive advantage, but its pretty damn close.

        • Rose

          Well that’s clear as day.

          CC = Halladay
          Beckett > Burnett (more consistent overall)
          Lester > Pettitte
          Dice K > Joba or Hughes

          But our offense is much better than theirs right now. Our pitching staff still isn’t bad…it just wouldn’t be close to theirs…theirs would be the best in baseball.

        • TheLastClown

          Personally I think it shakes down:

          CC/AJ/Andy/Joba/Hughes >>> Halladay/Lester/Beckett/DiceK/Wakefield.

          I’m assuming Buchholz was used to acquire Doc.

          I know you’re talking about the DS short series, and as regards that, if Joba OR Hughes has a good season, it’s CC/AJ/JobaorHughes, w/ Andy as the 4th starter.

          Very competitive

          • Rose

            I don’t see how you think the Yankees have a better starting rotation than the Red Sox if this is the scenario haha. Not a chance. We’ll still have a VERY GOOD one…but theirs will be ridiculous.

            • TheLastClown

              Well regular season wise, I agree the top 3 advantage goes to BOS.

              But after that, it’s a significant dropoff to compare Matsuzska & Wakefield to Hughes & Joba.

              • Rose

                Don’t shoot down Dice K too quickly…last year he was horrible and non-existent…the 2 years before that he was quite successful. IF you add 07′-08′ Dice K with Halladay, Beckett, and Lester…it’s very very scary. Wakefield would be the Nate Robertson of the bunch…

                • TheLastClown

                  2007: 4.40 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 3.5 BB/9 8.8 K/9, 2.51 K/BB, 4.23 FIP, 4.55 tRA, .306 BABIP

                  2008: 2.90 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 6.9 H/9, 5 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.64 K/BB, 4.03 FIP, 4.46 tRA, .260 BABIP

                  His debut year was mediocre, and his 2008 year screams of luck. All the innings piled up on him in NPB & the WBC IMO are adding up.

                  Dice-K ain’t no great shakes.

                • Sweet Dick Willie

                  The Sux would be MUCH better off signing Lackey and spending their prospects on Adrian Gonzalez than they would be spending their prospects on Halladay.

                  They definitely need to upgrade their offense, as Ortiz and Lowell are in decline.

                • Grover

                  Now move Halladay over to the Yank’s side of the staff ledger and compare them again. We also hit the crap out of Dice K. There is no question that we own them offensively but a short series is usually won with pitching, defense and a home run by a guy named Boone. I think winning it all this year causes a natural desire to bring back materially the same squad. This is where I like Cashman’s constant desire to get younger. I just think Halladay gives us a competitive edge like no other available player even if he is a little on the older side at the end of his deal.

      • mryankee

        I knew you would say that-I am not sure Hallday on the sox with Lester and Beckett would be a good matchup. However if that were to happen I would guess that the Yankees will add another pitcher maybe not big name but a quality pithcer. I am giving you that much.

  • OldYanksFan

    2012 Payroll
    Rodriguez, Alex (37): $30.000
    Sabathia, CC (32): $24.287
    Jeter, Derek (38): $20,000 ??
    Teixeira, Mark (32) $23.125
    Burnett, A.J. (35): $16.500
    Cano, Robinson (29): $14,000
    Swisher, Nick (31): $10,250
    ——————————
    7 players: $138 m !!!!!!!!!!!!
    $62m left for the other 18 players

    Question:
    How do you get 18 players for $62m?
    We MUST have a number of quality cost controlled players!
    This is the reason Melky, Brett and a BP full of kids are on the team.
    As while the cost of the ‘Big 7′ is somewhat constant for the next 3 years, we can expect regression due to age.

    Unless people what to shitcan the future, people need to think LONG and HARD about (1) Expensive long term contracts (2) Losing ANY MLB possible farm hands.

    AJax does not project to be a great player… but he’s ‘free’ and hopefully better then MelkyGardner… so that makes him very valuable.

    • Rose

      Swisher, Nick (31): $10,250

      ?????????

      • TheLastClown

        It’s a club option w/ a $1M buyout.

  • ScrantonYankees

    NO WAY TRADE THESE YOUNG PLAYERS FOR A 33 year old PITCHER!!! Do we need to be reminded of what can happen??? Plus the players that are being thrown around… Austin jackson, ABSOLUTLY NOT!!! I watched him all last year, he is well on his way. Dominated at every level so far, except the power has not come yet. he batted over .300 in scranton. The Joba and hughes are still very young and have actually been good. WE NEED TO RELAX HERE. We dont need halliday, only make trades for players you need…
    We have are older guys contracted for the perfect time. AJAX will be ready middle to end of next year. Montero, should be just in time for when Jorge is done. NO TRADES

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      MULTIPLE INTERROBANGS?!??!?!??!?!?!??!

      • Rose

        Woman (renting videos): Well Screw You!!

        [Woman storms off out the door]

        Randall: Yeah? Well you’re not allowed to rent here anymore!!!

        Jay (from outside): YEEEAAAHHH!!!!

    • Steve H


      We dont need halliday, only make trades for players you need…

      You’re one letter off from both the LF and the SP, which one are you talking about?

      • TheLastClown

        Didn’t you get the memo? It’s a genetic experiment that’s just been completed!

        The very first ‘Type-Omega’ FA. Mathroy Halliday.

        Power hitter, plays the OF, Ace-caliber starting pitcher.

        Get it done Ca$$$$h!

        • Steve H

          Power hitter, plays the OF, Ace-caliber starting pitcher

          So he’s Nick Swisher?

          • toad

            Much better: Babe Ruth reincarnate.

  • mryankee

    I think what mot people are missing when they talk about Halladay’s age is the type of pitcher he is and is not. Halladay is not a classic power pitcher he throws a lot of innings but does not seem to labor and have huge pitch counts. He is solid with a durbale pitchers body and does not have a history of arm troubles. I think he will be great for at leats 5 more years. Now if your saying you do not want Halladay because of the prospects then fine. Lets not use the issue of age however as I think the five years you get from Halladay will be good to great.

    • Steve H

      Agreed. All pitchers have some inherent injury risk. A 33 yeard old Roy Halladay will throw more innings in the next 5 years than 95% of 24-32 year olds.

      • mryankee

        Quality innings at that. I think if here is a “older pitcher” who is worth the risk its probably Halladay. The only way people in here will get that is if they seem him pitching for the Sox and throwing another complete game sutout against the Yankees. I know prospets are nice and some of them end up great. I am not saying they do not nor am I saying they are not valuable. However even Cashman said prospects are good for trade as much as for your present roster.

        • TheLastClown

          People here, I at least, do not doubt Halladay’s greatness.

          You do seem to be playing the clairvoyant though. Every athlete faces a decline in production as their body ages. Do I think the Doc is going to fall off a cliff? No. Do I think he has a better chance to be an elite pitcher into his late 30s than say, Santana or even CC? Yes.

          This still doesn’t mean giving up multiple potential impact pieces for him.

          I’ve been thinking about this a lot, and if I was Cashman, I would basically trade Hughes, with other pieces not named Joba/Jesus/AJax. I probably wouldn’t throw in Arodys either. If you can get it done for Hughes + maybe Romine or whatever else, do it. You’re replacing Hughes with Doc. You’re hamstrung financially and may have to pass up on King Felix in a couple…wait, fuck this, no, I’m changing my mind.

          I like it better with the possibility of Felix/CC/AJ/Joba/Hughes after 2011. That means two seasons before we add another ace. I like the chances of Sheets/Harden/CMW/Z-Mac and whoever else to fill out that 5th starter spot until the King becomes available. Sorry Doc.

          • Mike HC

            Waiting for Felix is a bad move. Hurting your chances of winning the next two years for the possibility of landing Felix a couple years from now is foolish. What if he gets hurt? Then the Yanks just wasted the past two years to get a pitcher coming off Tommy John. There a million things that can happen in between those two years. Lets win now, and let other teams wait for Felix.

            And the Yanks are so loaded that they can make a move for Felix no matter what their payroll is at the time. If he is the end all be all to baseball, it would be worth it no matter what.

    • http://twitter.com/riddering Riddering

      Please, Mr. Yankee, install a spell-checker on your web browser. Or paste your comments into a Word doc.

      • Rose

        If you use Firefox it automatically has one for you on this site. Unfortunately we’re not allowed to use Firefox at my work though :/

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          (insert jizzmopper/nudie booth joke here)

          • Steve H

            Delete insert jizzmopper/nudie booth joke here

  • Rob in CT

    Option 1: Trade one of Hughes, Joba or Montero, plus some other guys for 1 year of Roy Halladay @ $16.5 MM

    Option 2: Sign John Lackey for AJ Burnett money.

    Option 3: Go after a Ben Sheets/Rich Harden/Erik Bedard upside project.

    Keeping in mind that the team still needs a LFer and a DH, I like these in reverse order. If by some miracle Halladay can be had for, say, Austin Jackson & friends, that’s another matter. Given the Yankees are a divisional foe, are THE YANKEES, and the Sox are involved… I rather doubt it.

    • Rose

      I REALLY REALLY REALLY want to say Option 3…but I’ve never been a big gambler…and the Red Sox tried it last year and fell flat on their face with it…

      The next best option is probably #1…although I’d rather keep all of those 3 guys.

      I don’t want John Lackey on AJ Burnett money…no way no how. Where do Joba and/or Hughes go this year next year…or any year??

    • Steve H

      Reverse order. And Rose, the Sox went for NL guys without the stuff to succeed in the AL. Also, the Yankees would target one of those guys for their 5th spot in the rotation, so the downside is minimal. Look at their #5 starters this year.

    • Mike HC

      Count me in for Option two, except we would probably have to pay a little more than AJ money. I still want it. Even with being banged up the past couple of years, he has still put up strong numbers. If he is healthy, which would be a necessity if we are signing him long term, he would be a great pitcher for the Yanks. We have seen him do it in the playoffs countless times, and no stage is too big for him. I love the idea of signing Lackey, throwing out a rotation of CC, AJ, Lackey and youngsters/old vets for the next five years, and watching the WS rack up. Just me.

  • Mike HC

    This is the worst possible move the Yanks can make. Why wouldn’t we want to re sign the best pitcher in baseball? I just don’t get it on any level for the Yanks.

    The Brewers made a similar move with CC a couple of years ago, but that was because they were in position to make the playoffs for the first time in like forever and was willing to give something good up to reach that very lofty goal.

    The Yanks are at the complete opposite end. No way is this a good strategy for them.

  • Pingback: Fan Confidence Poll: December 7th, 2009 | River Avenue Blues

  • UWS

    Saying something is OT doesn’t make it any less OT, you know, nor automatically give you the green light to post OT comments.

  • JMK aka The Overshare

    It’s my lunch break, man.

    Note: I swear it gets more expensive to eat lunch in this city every day. I may start eating the dirty dogs by Christmas if it keeps up like this.