For 2010, what role Aceves?
By
It’s sometimes hard to believe that Alfredo Aceves, the forgotten man out of Spring Training who didn’t arrive in the Bronx until May last year, finished with the fourth most wins on the Yankees. He always seemed to enter the game at exactly the right time, and he ended up with 10 wins and just one loss.
In many respects, Alfredo Aceves’ 2009 campaign helps highlight a lot of statistical platitudes about pitching. Relief wins are rather meaningless when some of them come in extra innings and others are brought about by virtue of long relief, multiple-inning appearances. He did, as Steve Lombardi wrote at Was Watching over the weekend, vulture his wins.
As a Posnanskian aside, Aceves’ 2009 splits also show how pitchers’ numbers respond to luck. In the first half, he threw 43.1 innings, allowed 34 hits, walked nine and struck out 7.5 per 9 IP. His ERA was 2.49. In the second half, he threw 40.2 innings, allowed 35 hits, walked eight and struck out 7.3 per 9 IP. Despite allowing fewer home runs and sporting a WHIP just 0.065 higher in the second half, his ERA over those 40.2 innings sat at 4.65. Luck changed, and his ERA settled in at a respectable 3.54 for the season.
Basically, Aceves was an above-average reliever, Lombardi says, who won more games than he probably should have. As Steve rightly points out, the odds of Aceves doing that again are slim, and he says, “Let’s hope the Yankees aren’t banking a repeat of this from Aceves this season.”
Now, I don’t wish to denigrate Alfredo Aceves. He turned in a very respectable season for the Yanks after spending a month at AAA. He had a WXRL of 2.522 and an ARP of 12.9. By many respects, he was the Yanks’ third most valuable reliever in 2009 due to his high innings total and relatively high-leverage usage. He can get a ground ball; he can get a K; he can throw short stints or make long appearances. All in all, he’s a very good guy to have.
But the Yankees know Aceves’ limitations as well. His shoulder started barking in late July, and he seemed to hit a mid-summer wall. He was not very consistent in limited October use and, as any pitcher, fares better against less patient hitters. How will the Yanks use him in 2010?
Well, from the start, Aceves will see his spot on the depth charts bumped down a bit. The Yankees will, in all likelihood, head into 2010 with Mariano Rivera as the closer, either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain as the primary setup man, David Robertson as the go-to strike out guy, Damaso Marte as the lefty specialist and Chad Gaudin as the primary long reliever. Aceves stands to be the sixth guy out of the pen and the Yanks’ seventh or eighth starter.
In the end, the Mexican Gangster adds some depth the Yankees’ bullpen. He does a good job of keeping hitters off base and generally keeps the ball in the park. He’s versatile and adopted well to different roles. With Javier Vazquez around, the improvement to Yanks’ pitching staff trickles down the bullpen, and the team should, if all goes according to plan, not need Aceves to swoop in and nab those vulture wins this year.
Above: Al Aceves pitches against the Orioles in July. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
66 Comments»
RAB Info
The Founders
Mike Axisa, Ben Kabak, Joe Pawlikowski
Editor-In-Chief
Mike Axisa Archives | Email
Managing Editors
Ben Kabak Archives | E-mail
Joe Pawlikowski Archives | E-mail
Contributing Editors
Larry Koestler (Archives)
Moshe Mandel (Archives)
Stephen Rhoads (Archives)
Weekend Writers
Hannah Ehrlich (Archives)
Matthew Warden (Archives)
Special Contributor
J.R. O'Grady (Archives)
Subscribe to RAB by RSS and Twitter
Follow @RiverAveBlues Search RAB
Spring Training Countdown
Just 6 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.Banner Design By
He had a great season despite having a giant head.
HEAD! MOVE!
Looks like an orange on toothpick!
Good point, Vazquez’s innings will trickle down to the ‘pen and help Aceves quite a bit. So will Joba’s innings, for that matter. By the end of the year, we were seeing Aceves once every 3 or 4 games, pitching 3 mop up innings at a time, and Girardi would be hesitant to use him if Joba was scheduled to pitch the next day.
Ideally, it’d be great to be able to let Ace cover around 2 innings every 2 games or so.
Basically, Aceves was an above-average reliever, Lombardi says, who won more games than he probably should have. As Steve rightly points out, the odds of Aceves doing that again are slim, and he says, “Let’s hope the Yankees aren’t banking a repeat of this from Aceves this season.”
Meh, I doubt the Yankees ever “bank” on a reliever ever earning a win in any game, ever.
Pitcher wins in general are pretty meaningless. Reliever wins are even less meaningful. I bet the Yankees are merely “banking” on Aceves pitching well, and the starters pitching well, and they’re much more concerned with “banking” on a TEAM capable of getting 100 TEAM wins and not concerned at all with how the individual pitcher wins stack up.
In other words, I don’t think when Moose left, we started worrying about how to replace his 20 pitcher wins, and started banking on pitcher wins from certain places (i.e. let’s get 13 wins from Burnett and 7 wins from Aceves out of the bullpen, etc.) We just banked on replacing his performance with Burnett and banked on getting good performance from the bullpen, and let the artificially defined pitcher wins stat worry about itself.
My main problem with the individual “win” stat is the notion that you can single out one person in any given game and give them sole credit for the outcome of that game. That never made sense to me.
Homer: Let me set the scene for you, Marge.
Marge: All right.
Homer: It’s a 7-10 split.
Marge: Uh huh?
Homer: The hardest shot in bowling. It was all up to me –
Marge: Oh!
Homer: — so I got up all my courage. Right away, my lips started to move, and I came up with the chant that won the match!
Marge: Who knocked down the pins?
Homer: [annoyed] I don’t know. You know, some guy, er… Otto, I guess.
Marge: Good for him!
Homer: Yes, but — Marge, you’re not — you’re missing the point! The individual doesn’t matter. It was a team effort, and I was the one who came up with the whole team idea.. .me!
Not only are “Wins” a meaningless, arbitrary statistic – its also semantically incorrect. It should be “pitcher wins” or … something. Truly it should be something completely different like “Pitching at least . Flatly calling them “wins” totally changes the perception the average fan has of that stat.
This is a terribly common thought:
Isn’t the game all about, y’know, winning? Then wins are clearly the most important stat in the game!
And its just fucking wrong and stupid.
Dennis Martinez won 245 games. Lou Gehrig never won a single one.
Therefore, Dennis Martinez was a much better player than Lou Gehrig.
Q.E.D.
Oh, didn’t finish one of my thoughts on this ramble, heh.
I meant to say “Truly it should be something completely different, like ‘Arbitrary designation of a pitcher being the last guy on his team to throw on the mound when his team scored what would eventually be the winning run’”
Not even that. Last guy to throw a pitch when the lead changed hands for the last time.
Well, unless the starter didn’t go 5 innings. Then it goes to the reliever the official scorer liked the most that day.
Maybe we just rename it “AS”, for “Arbitrary Statistic”. It’d be much more appropriate semantically.
Isn’t it at least somewhat “fucking wrong and stupid” to maintain unwaiveringly that wins are simply a meaningless arbitrary statistic? I remember TSJC’s response a few weeks back regarding how many wins would CC have needed to have, in TSJC’s opinion, to deserve the Cy Young over Greinke (all other stats remaining the same) and his response was at least 25. So it seems to me, that even the most ardent holder of the wins are a meaningless stat positon, should be willing to recognize a pitcher’s wins, at some point or critical mass, as having meaning.
Well, it depends upon the context. In that example, TSJC was talking about the number of wins CC would need to convince a bunch of voters of his worth. In this context, we’re talking about relief pitcher wins. Starting pitching wins are marginally more useful than relief wins.
The full quotes from that thread, for context:
Also, for posterity’s sake, it should be noted that I brought Riddering to climax in that thread. (As usual.)
http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....ent-689266
I’m totally going to serenade my girlfriend with things like the top 100 starter FIPs of 2009 the next time we engage in sweet, sweet lovemaking.
I was saying the semantic interpretation of the “win” stat is fucking wrong and stupid. The stat itself, while mostly arbitrary, does have some meaning and value, I won’t deny that. I don’t have a problem with that stat itself. My issue is more with the masses who make it seem much more valuable and relevant than it truly is.
Exactly, they’ll probably bank on Aceves having an ERA under 4 (or there abouts), the wins will take care of themselves.
Ben Kabak quoting Steve Lombardi. Hell hath indeed frozen over.
Quoting shocks me. I didn’t realize people read his blog.
He’ll still likely be a prominent member of the pen. We hopefully won’t have to ride him as much as we did this past season particularly before Hughes joined the pen, but I think we’ll see him in at least a few late inning situations.
He’s also likely ahead of Gaudin on the depth chart and in certain key situations will be called upon over the likes of Robertson and Marte.
Personally I’d use Hughes/Joba (whichever is in the pen) as a “long setup man.” By this I mean someone will pitch late in close games but will pitch a minimum of 2 innings each appearance. Similar to what Ace did for much of the year. This keeps them stretched out. On days when Hughes/Joba is not available or when the starter goes 7+ we’ll go to a combination of Robertson, Marte, and Ace. Using Hughes/Joba as a pure 8th inning guy would basically take them out of the rotation picture as it would take a long time to stretch them out. However if they’re pitching 2-4 innings an outing than they would be sretched out enough where they could make a spot start with limits at any point and could join the rotation without limits after one or two starts.
But the Yankees know Aceves’ limitations as well. His shoulder started barking in late July, and he seemed to hit a mid-summer wall. He was not very consistent in limited October use and, as any pitcher, fares better against less patient hitters. How will the Yanks use him in 2010?
Hopefully this year they can settle Aceves into a regular role, that will prevent him from being used so much, as 107 innings minors and majors last year as mainly a reliever is too much workload.
The Yankees will, in all likelihood, head into 2010 with Mariano Rivera as the closer, either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain as the primary setup man, David Robertson as the go-to strike out guy, Damaso Marte as the lefty specialist and Chad Gaudin as the primary long reliever. Aceves stand to be the sixth guy out of the pen and the Yanks’ seventh or eighth starter.
Wait, isn’t the long reliever the guy least frequently used? Making Gaudin the sixth guy out of the pen, and Aceves the fifth? I’d be surprised if Gaudin is above Ace on the BP pecking order.
1) Mo
(Swisher-sized gap)
2) Hughes
(large gap)
3t) Robertson
3t) Marte
(miniscule gap)
5) Aceves
(decent sized gap)
6) Gaudin
(large gap)
7) Mitre
I agree, Aceves should definitely be ahead of Gaudin.
Also agree. Aceves ahead of Gaudin.
I hope we don’t have Gaudin AND Mitre. I’d prefer Gaudin plus Meloncon.
Patience, young padawan. These things have a way of working themselves out.
Its true. And I was thinking maybe Albie over Mitre as well but screw it, maybe Mitre turns into a legit GB guy now that he’s one more year removed from TJS and he ends up being a useful reliever.
*Melancon. Sorry Mark.
Mmmmmmm. Melon-cone.
http://www.haagen-dazs.com.hk/....._melon.jpg (safe)
Worse. Flavor. Ever.
Worse than what?
Worse than Meat tray flavor.
When Gaudin is your 6th best pitcher out of the pen, you’re in damn fine shape.
I am still of the opinion that Hughes or Joba will begin the season starting in AAA. The chance that the Yankees will be able to get through the entire season with only their top 5 starters is so remote that it would be nice to have a capable backup to step in. If it gets to June and all 5 starters are chugging along with no issues and the bullpen is struggling, then I can see them moving Hughes/Joba to the pen.
Aceves is a valuable part of the Yankee bullpen. I especially like his versatility to get a strikeout, pitch an inning or go long if necessary.
I think he’ll earn his pay in 2010.
. . . go long if necessary.
We’re totally going to dominate the MLB flag football tournament.
Romulo Sanchez will get a long look in ST as well.
+270 or so
In his bra.
And Boone Logan.
Shame he has to cut that beard off…
http://images.quickblogcast.co.....eLogan.bmp (safe-ish)
That facial hair is a perfect fit for the Red Sox. Have you ever seen a team with so many guys sporting such ugly facial hair?
sweet. lord.
http://flywithbats.files.wordp.....e_fuck.jpg
best shot of the year by far
Aceves is only as good as his changeup and it was mostly good last year. Now if he could just teach a few of our other guys how to throw it for strikes and behind in the count…..
Then we could get rid of that job-stealing Mexican!
Barring utter domination in ST, I’m sure the Yanks are counting on Aceves being a flexible piece in the bullpen.
More importantly, he and Cashman are already working on their Police cover band tour.
Jason Zillo is already preparing the “Cashman & Crew Police Cover band Camp Sundown Tour 2010: Rock Out With The Lights Out” event
“El Policia” with their hit song “Cada Pequeña Cosa Que No Es Magia”.
He’ll be the long man, he, Melancon, and Logan will probably those three guys in the pen that get first dibs on mop up duty…
I can also see P Hugh doing some long work out of the pen, but NOT mop up duty say for example the game is tight but its a high scoring a affair and either Joba or A.J have one of their “Woopsie” outings, Hughes could come in the 4th or 5th and bring some order into those types of games.
This keeps Joba in the rotation.. where he belongs and can let Hughes rack up some innings…
Trade Boone Logan to the Nippon Ham Fighters for 24 Yu Darvish jerseys.
Wait, how many pitchers do you think we’re going to carry at the big league level?
Rotation (5)
CC, AJ, Andy, Javy, and the winner of the Joba/Hughes battle
Bullpen definites (5)
Mo, Marte, DRob, Aceves, and Gaudin
A virtual lock (much to my chagrin) for a BP spot, rather than AAA (1)
the loser of the Joba/Hughes battle
That’s 11 spots already, we haven’t gotten to Melancon or Logan yet, and we still have Sergio Mitre who can’t be optioned to the minors. I like Melancon and Logan too, but DFAing Mitre before we even see what he can do now that he’s fully outside his TJS recovery window just to force one of them on the Opening Day roster is unwise.
I don’t see how Melancon or Logan make the team, unless we make a trade before Opening Day.
Ah-ha, I forgot about that wrinkle. THAT’s why Mitre needs to be on the 25-man come opening day lest he’s traded. Makes sense.
Unclear, but he may have an option in the contract. He also signed for so little that the Yanks can just cut him if he’s not useful.
Be nice if he had an option. At the end of the day, he’s the 12th guy in the ‘pen. Either something has gone really wrong with the team, or really right with Mitre, if he’s still pitching for us in September.
He also signed for so little that the Yanks can just cut him if he’s not useful.
Absolutely. Alls I’m sayin is, unless he’s just patheticly atrocious in the spring, and one of Melancon/Logan/Romulo/WDLR is Swisheresque lights-out dominant, no point in cutting him just to go north with the slight upgrade of one of those younger options.
He wins all ties, since he can’t be stashed in the minors and we don’t need to give away assets that still can produce some.
Agreed, if we’re worried about the last guy in the pen in April and May the Yankees will be in fine shape. Also, what was the pen ERA in April/May last year? I care about where the pen ends up, not where it starts.
im pretty new here and im not sure i believe in all these newer stats that you guys talk about, but i have an open mind to them, i am trying to learn them and i believe they have a lot of merit. i understand that a pitchers wins are not a terrific measure of how he did, but there are certainly times when just by seeing a pitchers record for the year you know if he was good or not, my example would be Ron Guidry 25-3
im pretty new here and im not sure i believe in all these newer stats that you guys talk about, but i have an open mind to them, i am trying to learn them and i believe they have a lot of merit
Well said. Reminds me of one of my favorite comments ever on RAB (and one of Joe’s best uses of his special admin powers ever, as well):
http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....ent-585576
but there are certainly times when just by seeing a pitchers record for the year you know if he was good or not, my example would be Ron Guidry 25-3
Counterargument, of sorts:
In 1992, an American League pitcher (who didn’t win the Cy Young, btw) went a sterling 21-6 as the presumptive ace of an AL East juggernaut. His 21 wins lead the league. Now, that’s not Guidryesque 25-3 dominance, but a 21-6 mark is still quite shiny and should indicate that he was quite good, no?
That pitcher had an ERA on the year of 4.04. That’s a 102 ERA+. WHIP 1.255, K/9 and BB/9, 4.9 and 3.0. Fairly pedestrian. He just happened to pitch more often on days where his team scored him runs.
That pitcher’s name? Jack Morris.
(Oh, and there’s others. According to Play Index, there’s 27 seasons where a pitcher had 20 or more wins and fewer than 10 losses, with an ERA+ lower than 110. Catfish Hunter in ’73, John Burkett in ’93, Andy Pettitte the year before he left for Houston, Rick Sutcliffe in ’84, etc.)
ok, i guess i have to concede, somewhat.
thank you for explaining your point rationally
The thing about bullpens is that they are always terribly inconsistent, from year to year and even from game to game. Let’s face it: if these guys were consistent, they would be starting or closing.
The great thing about the Yankee bullpen last year was it’s depth. There always seemed to be someone hot. Aceves was great early in the year, Hughes was terrific in the second half, and Marte and Robertson stepped up in the playoffs.
[...] the rest here: For 2010, what role Aceves? | River Avenue Blues Tags: aceves, alfredo-aceves, archimedes, bullpen, death-by-bullpen, evilest, hughes, [...]