Was the Yanks’ offense lucky or unlucky in 2009?
ByThe Yankees had the best offense in baseball last year, and frankly it wasn’t all that close either. They led the big leagues with a .362 team on-base percentage (Boston was second at .352) and a .478 slugging percentage (Boston was again second at .454), and their .283 team batting average was just two points behind the Angels for the baseball’s best. And before you try the bandbox excuse, you should know that the team’s road OBP (.355) was still the best in baseball, ditto their SLG (.466). Their road AVG was identical to their home AVG.
Last Friday, Andy Hellicksonstine (clever) at DRays Bay took a look at Tampa’s 2009 offense by comparing their actual output with their expected output based on xBABIP, which inspired this post. xBABIP is expected batting average on balls in play, and if a player has a higher xBABIP than BABIP, it means they were a little unlucky. You would have expected to see them pick up a few more hits than they actually did. We always point to BABIP to say so-and-so was lucky/unlucky last year, however BABIP itself is pretty simplistic. It doesn’t consider the type of balls the batter puts in play (LD > GB > FB), which xBABIP does. If you want to learn more about xBABIP, then JFGI.
Let’s take a look at how the Yanks’ batters actually performed last year compared to what we’d expect. If any table in this post is tough to read, click on it to open a larger view. Don’t worry, they’ll all open in fresh tabs.
“# Hits” is the number of hits a player lost due to their actual BABIP, so a negative number means the player got lucky and picked up some hits they shouldn’t have. The departed Melky Cabrera was the unluckiest player on the team, getting screwed out of 14 total hits throughout the year. Derek Jeter, meanwhile, was the luckiest, picking up 12 more hits than he should have. I’m not surprised to see Jeter and Robinson Cano near the bottom of the chart, you don’t hit for that kind of average without picking up some cheapies.
Overall, the Yankees actually lost out on 24 hits due to bad luck last year. If we assume every hit gained/lost was a single (not entirely accurate, but sufficient for the purposes of this post), here’s what each player would have hit last year.
The prefix “a” means actual, “x” means expected. Jeter actually hit .334-.404-.465 in 2009, however we would have expected him to really hit .316-.387-.446, a difference of 35 OPS points. Check out Nick Swisher‘s expected batting line, that’s bonafide star offensive production. Melky Cabrera? Well with a little luck, he would have had himself a damn fine season. Not that he didn’t have a fine season, it was good (for him), but it would have been even better if a few bounces went his way. I guess the same holds true for every player.
Moving on to some more advanced offensive stats, here’s a comparison of the team’s actual wOBA and wRCAA to their expected values.
wOBA is weighted on-base average, which properly weighs singles against doubles against homers against walks and everything else (regular old OBP considers all hits equal). wRAA is weighted runs above average, which is basically a player’s wOBA minus the league average (divided by a league specific factor) multiplied by plate appearances. That tells you how many more runs a player contributed to his offense over a league average player. In many cases, a player was worse than league average, as you can see from the table above.
Melky got hosed out of more than 11 runs last year, which is basically a full win. As productive as Swisher, Hideki Matsui, and Alex Rodriguez were in 2009, they actually should have been a bit better. Again, it’s not a shock to see Cano and Jeter in the negatives, you don’t rack up as many bulk hits as them without lady luck on your side. As a team, the Yanks unlucked out of 19.1 runs last year. That’s basically two full wins. The best offense in baseball was unlucky last year. Take a second to wrap your head around that.
Of course, Matsui and Johnny Damon are gone now, replaced by Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson. Let’s see how these two performed compared to expectations.
Sorry I dumped all three tables on you all at once, but long story short is that Granderson was pretty unlucky while NJ was lucky. Yes, I used the appropriate park adjustments. Combined, they were expected to produce almost the same number of runs above average as Matsui by himself. Of course the former two basically had the worse full seasons of their careers at an age when expecting a rebound is more than reasonable, compared to Matsui who had his best season in some time and is at an age when decline could come at any moment.
A full season of A-Rod plus decent rebounds from Granderson and NJ should have this offense back to where it was last season, and if their luck evens out a little bit, it could be even better. Oh, yeah, and they improved their starting rotation. And shed payroll. Be afraid, American League. Be very afraid.
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The Mason Williams Watch
Thanks for bringing the Granderson stats to attention — I think some luck and a short porch and this guy’s due for a killer year
(shakes head)
Why is his name clever?
It’s a mash-up of Rays’ pitcher Andy Sonnanstine and Rays’ prospect Jeremy Hellickson. Or at least I’m assuming. Andy Hellicksonstine might actually be his real name for all I know. That would be one hell of a coincidence.
His brother’s name is Joey Jo-Jo Junior Shabadoo.
That’s the worst name I ever heard.
WAIT! JOEY JO-JO!
Wait, are you trying to tell me that Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson both don’t suck, despite both hitting only .249, because they were both robbed with some unlucky bounces, and their expected luck-neutral production lines would have both started with an utterly respectable .275ish batting average?
Bullshit. There’s no way that’s true. Both Swisher and Granderson are horrible hitters. I’ve seen it with my own eyes.
//fat scout’d
finally someone with some sense
\emac2′d
I’d like to see some overall league averages for this stat. Would go a long way to demonstrating whether this is just statistical white noise or has some genuine relevancy to it.
I’ve got the AL BABIP as .303 in 2009, and AL xBABIP at ~.308. The xBABIP calc isn’t 100% perfect because I don’t have the patience to go through an figure out exactly how many flyballs, popups, and grounders the AL hit last year. I just averaged out each team’s percentages and used that.
It is rare when I am in agreement with TSJC on anything. However his opinion about Granderson and in particular, Swisher were right on……… they both sucked last year.
Did you not get the overwhelming amount of sarcasm in his comment?
I probably confused him, what with all my proper punctuation and lack of elaborately nested parentheticals.
Swisher stunk the joint out in big situations (Like Striking Out with the bases loaded against the Angels). Granderson was excellent in 2008, but not last year. I expect a comeback in 2010.
If you’re referring to the playoffs, he popped up.
See how you’re eyes failed you?
See how your statement failed?
OH SHEEEEEEIIIIIITTTTTTT
/Clay Davis’d
Everything’s a Proper Noun Party!
/Strike Out’d
sarcasm fails in a bad way
It is rare when I am in agreement with TSJC on anything.
That’s because he’s a lefty pinko commie whackjob.
/SalBoGrantLanny’d
Throw in being a Miami fan. Being a Penn State die hard, I will never forget Jerome Brown’s comments about kicking Paterno’s Ass…………………….. Of course, Vinnie Testaverde threw 6 INTs and PSU won 14-10. We Are PENN STATE!
You do realize I’m not really SalBoGrantLanny, right? This conversation is already getting strange. Quickly.
Also, for the record: List of people who have forgotten about Jerome Brown’s comments about kicking Joe Paterno’s ass:
Joe Paterno
Jerome Brown (from heaven)
Vinny Testaverde
pretty much everyone except for you
I will never forget that game, because along with the Immaculate Reception game (Steelers over Raiders) it was the most satisfying football game ever.
Top 5 sporting events:
1: Bucky Dent HR Game 163 (Yankees/ Red Sox)
2: PSU/Miami
2a:Steeler/Raiders
3: Game 5 96 WS (Yankees/Braves).
4: PSU/Georgia (First PSU National Championship).
Dan Marino: Hey Ace, got anymore of that gum?
Ace Ventura: That’s none of your damn business and I’ll thank you to stay out of my personal affairs.
Dan Marino: You’re a weird guy, Ace. Weird guy.
I’m looking for Ray Finkle
:::shotgun pump:::
and a clean pair of shorts
This will end well…
How does a .370 OBP and hitting 29 HRs suck? Srcasm FAIL by the way.
cause he strikes out a lot!
/answer to every question about Swish/Curtis
and can’t even hit .250!!!
Ryan Howard is the most worthless major leaguer EVER
see arod’s .400+ wOBA (whateva)
I see how this all fits, and it’s a nice post, Mike. But one question: we see how the Yankees may have been squeezed out of a few wins here, but what about how many come from behind wins and close game wins the team had? That number was fairly high, so isn’t it fair to say, even with an offense even very slightly underperforming, those wins put them over the expected win total or at least break even?
I may be missing something here.
why is winning a close game lucky? if the yanks had several blooper hits drop in behind the first baseman that went for doubles or the other team hit 3 or 4 line drives right at our players, then yes, i could see it…. but a close game win is still scoring more than the opponents
and why are come from behind wins lucky? scoring in the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning are counted the same as runs scored in the 1st and 2nd. every inning is worth 1/9 of the game. we shouldnt be considered lucky just because some of our runs were scored in the 8th as opposed to the 2nd.
It’s not that come from behind wins are necessarily lucky. This may be poor phrasing on my part (not thinking everything through—I’m sort of neglecting important work and RAB-multitasking.) It’s that statistically, they’re not very likely, so when a team compiles so many, it may be an outlier.
Is is possible that although Yankees should have had more hits last season than they did, their hits came more frequently in higher leverage situations (late innings, close game, etc)? They could have been lucky in that sense, perhaps.
I suppose that’s possible. I haven’t really crunched any numbers, but that would be interesting to see (provided I didn’t have to do any work to find out).
I’d imagine you’d have to also compile all the BABIP v. xBABIP for all the Yankee opponents during the games we played against them, to see how many runs lucky/unlucky our competitors happened to be while playing us.
On a more macro (and less legwork) level, though, it would be interesting to see teams’ pythag record calculated both on actual runs scored/allowed and on expected runs scored/allowed. Like a second-order pythag, if you will. (This stat has to already have been invented/tabulated by someone already).
The tricky part would be working out an expected runs allowed metric that was reliable… pitching and defensive metrics are trickier.
Wow, that’s a lot of work to do on the first part. I wonder what advanced sabermetrics will look like in 2025 (if we’re still around).
Perhpas we can take a ride in our flying cars and discuss it at length.
Jetpacks. I was promised jet packs, damn it.
IN THE YEAR TWO-THOUSAAAAAAAND.
IN THE YEAR TWO-THOUSAAAAAAAAAAAAAAND!
The sound effects make that scene.
Flying Hoverrounds or Segways.
The movie 2012 is true! I saw it with my own eyes!
Doesn’t BP already do something like that? I seem to remember some kind of stat, WARP3, that they calculate using all these advanced batting and pitching statistics, normalized for everyone.
Ah yes, here they are:
http://www.baseballprospectus......ndings.php
Looks like the Yankees and Dodgers were the only two really good teams last year, at least by these standards.
Nevermind, I don’t think they use expected statistics, just strength of schedule.
But one question: we see how the Yankees may have been squeezed out of a few wins here, but what about how many come from behind wins and close game wins the team had?
This is one spot where looking at general trends can give you the wrong impression.
If the Yankees opponent scores in the top of the first and the Yankees win the game, that counts as a come from behind win. With that loose of a definition of come from behind wins, I’d expect really good/bad teams to have more/less come from behind wins than the aggregate stats would suggest.
As for close game wins, the odds will shift in your favor if you have a strong bullpen. Having an elite closer will shift the odds in your favor. A strong setup crew will enhance the odds further.
“The best offense in baseball was unlucky last year.”
My mind…it is blown.
Apparently luck, along with the RABbi’s, does not like Melky.
WHich is odd, considering the guy had like 3 walkoffs last year.
How the hell can an entire offense be lucky? I mean damn I know things are slow. I mean come one man. I hope Johnny Damon signs back soon or something happens.
How the hell can an entire offense be lucky?
Is it true that if you don’t “use it”, you “lose it”?
you know how i know youre gay? you listen to coldplay
Is that Steve Austin’s boss? Why do you have this?
That’s Oscar Goldman. He’s worth a lot of money.
please, if this is what you’re going to bring to the convo then just don’t post.
Remember when you could flip over a baseball card and see all the stats that mattered? RAB has effectively killed that part of me. Thanks RAB
In full, total, dead seriousness, you’re welcome.
I remember that time as well. I’m pretty sure I thought Voltron was real back then. Translation: I wasn’t very smart during that period of my life.
Not gonna lie, that stung a little buddy. haha
I hate it when my little buddy gets stung.
I need to stop spanking it in the back yard with the dog’s shock collar around my little buddy…
\pat’d
ietc
You ain’t never lived until you’ve experienced electrospank therapy.
http://www.dollinfo.com/images/80misc/mybudfl.jpg
Hah. That’s just creepy.
This is more your type of thing I’m guessing:
http://www.realdoll.com/ (NSFW)
Should I be offended that the only options for skin tone are “Fair, Asian, Medium, Tanned, and Light African”?
No love for the dark-skinned sistas?
————-
Meh, it’s probably because all the love dolls picked a side in the holy war and thus, never had their skin darkened as cosmic punishment from Elohim.
/Mormon’d
for some reason, also a little creepy…
Way to combine the underlying racism of the real doll corporation with Mormonism, TSJC. That’s awesome.
Norm MacDonald: Now, Al, uh, you’ve been covering these midterm races?
Al Franken: Uh, yes.
Norm MacDonald: Any general trends seem to be emerging?
Al Franken: Uh, yes, Norm. This appears to be the roughest campaign year ever.
Norm MacDonald: Negative campaigning?
Al Franken: Oh, yeah. Yeah. I’ve been covering politics for a long time and this is, without a doubt, the most mean-spirited year I’ve ever seen. Now, take for example, Massachusetts, where Senate challenger Mitt Romney is spending millions of dollars on attack ads like this one. Watch.
[Dissolve to ad with photo of a ruddy-faced Ted Kennedy accompanied by minor key music and a deep-throated, smarmy announcer's voice over.]
Announcer V/O: On October 14th, 1978, Ted Kennedy is seen puking in the parking lot of the U.S. Capitol… On February 8th, 1983, Kennedy relieves himself on the leg of a Georgetown waitress… Two years later, Kennedy passes out on the floor of the Senate, soiling himself in the process…
Kennedy — He’s a big, fat drunk.
[Dissolve back to Al and Norm at the desk.]
Norm MacDonald: Yeah. Yeah, that was tough.
Al Franken: It’s a tough year. Tough year… And it’s really become a no-holds barred contest. Watch this. This is one of Kennedy’s attack ads on Romney.
[Dissolve to another ad with minor key music and a deep-throated, smarmy announcer's voice over.]
Announcer V/O: [Image of Brigham Young] Mormon prophet Brigham Young believed that a man ought to have as many wives as he wants. Apparently, Mitt Romney agrees. [Side by side images of Young and Romney] After all, he’s a Mormon. [Upbeat trumpet fanfare as we dissolve to a photo of Mr. and Mrs. Ted Kennedy.]
Ted Kennedy: One Wife at a Time.
how dare you! voltron is real!
Melky come back, all is forgiven!
Can Swisher have a lucky season one these years? Seems like he’s always getting unlucky. His “lucky” season would be studly.
His lucky season would in fact actually be “unlucky” because he wouldn’t be sleeping with 3 women per night and then would have more of his super powers to use on baseball.
/LT’d
You gotta get lucky at the right time for that luck to turn into wins
Geting lucky in a blow out game will not turn those extra runs into additional wins.
So if your a good hitter are you very lucky andif your a moderate hitter are you just lucky? Does anybody in baseball perform because o talent or does every number have to be confirgured in terms of luck? Cano is not really a 300 hitter he is just very lucky and that gus is not a 200 hitter just unlucky because balls did not fall in for him.
http://nolifing.com/files/e3f292844a15.jpg (SFW)
So if your a good hitter are you very lucky andif your a moderate hitter are you just lucky?
No one ever said that. Of course the most important factor in being a good hitter is pure talent, however there is a lot more than just pure talent in play.
Is Derek Jeter a legitimate .300 hitter? Sure, absolutely. Is he really a .334 hitter like last year? No, he got some help on that.
Then this goes back to my argument last week. If he really is not a 334 hitter then should the Yankees deduct from their offer on his new contract for luck? In other words your not really A your B but because of luck you produced at A level.
Well sure. If the Yanks don’t expect Jeter to be a .XXX hitter going forward, then why the hell should they pay him like one?
Thats my point everyone in here was lambasting me for saying he should take less money in his next deal. If your saying that players who perform beyond the averagesof their career do so out of luck then why should they be paid more than market value?
Well, taking less money and offering less money are two entirely different things.
Fair enough if the market for Jeter’s production including a bit of an increase for his pastcontributions. Should Jeter be making more than say Hanley Ramirez?
Based on raw production, Hanley should make more. If they both hit the open market today, he’d get the bigger deal, and not by a small amount either.
Exactly so if I were the Yankees ownership and Jeter’s contract being up I would not understand why they need to pay him two or three times more than Hanley?
http://www.amazon.com/Eats-Sho.....1592400876
Because Hanley Ramirez isn’t a free agent. What Hanley makes now isn’t comparable to Jeter because he hasn’t been in the league long enough to earn the right to go on the open market.
That’s like saying CC Sabathia in 2009 didn’t deserve ~38x what Tim Lincecum made.
Exactly so if I were the Yankees ownership and Jeter’s contract being up I would not understand why they need to pay him two or three times more than Hanley?
Seriously, dude, where do you live?
Do they not have a community college or a learning annex there where you can take a logic class for like a hundred bucks or so? Sure, it won’t be taught by a top-shelf academic, more like a quality high-school teacher, but all in all, it would be a worthwhile investment. Consider it.
http://www.phoenix.edu/
Do they not have a community college or a learning annex there where you can take a logic class for like a hundred bucks or so?
hmm…I’m intrigued…you suggest logic before spelling, grammar or punctuation? Or was Eats Shoots and Leaves supposed to be his self-paced study?
I’m hoping that by first improving his logical mind, it’ll be easier to then convince him to complete the rest of his self-improvement journey.
Thats my point everyone in here was lambasting me for saying he should take less money in his next deal.
I’m pretty sure that’s not quite how that conversation last week went. I think you’re glossing over some critical details.
Just a hunch.
At the time my argument was more slanted towards the fact he is already rich and to help the team he should take less, However as this particular room is speaking to luck in numbers. I just added that aspart of my argument.
Sure, whatevs.
If we’re talking specifically about Derek Jeter’s next contract, that’s a bad example to use regarding luck and salary amounts. He’s the iconic face of one of the wealthiest sports organizations in the world, and the Yankees market the hell out of him, plus get residual branding benefits from him being in stuff like Gatorade commercials.
Jeter’s value to the Yankees goes far beyond his baseball performance. He knows it. His agent knows it. The Yankees know it. Hence, his AAV will, if anything, rise on his next deal. Or at least stay the same.
:: sigh ::
http://knowyourmeme.com/i/124/.....-wrong.jpg
http://media.photobucket.com/i.....646105.jpg (SFW)
What is your position on the role of government in supporting innovation in the field of biotechnology?
I’ll take this one.
Recent research has shown that empirical evidence for globalization of corporate innovation is very limited and as a corollary the market for technologies is shrinking. As a world leader, it’s important for America to provide systematic research grants for our scientists. I believe strongly there will always be a need for us to have a well articulated innovation policy with emphasis on human resource development.
Thank you.
Should the West collectively abandon nuclear nonproliferation as a foreign policy aim and counterterrorism strategy?
i choose….business ethics.
I personally believe that US Americans are unable to do so because some people out there in our nation don’t have maps and I believe that our education like such as in a South Africa and Iraq everywhere like such as and I believe that they should our education over here in the US should help the US or should help South Africa and should help Iraq and the Asian countries so we will be able to build up our future for our children.
I personally believe that US Americans are unable to do so because some people out there in our nation don’t have maps and I believe that our education like such as in a South Africa and the Iraq everywhere like such as and I believe that they should our education over here in the US should help the US or should help South Africa and should help Iraq and the Asian countries so we will be able to build up our future for our children.
FTFY
Damnit.
I remember a handful of times Melk squared pitches up and lined them directly at an OFer. Good to see xBABIP agrees.
I’m hoping some day we find out mryankee has been the best troll on RAB. He’s surpassed alexgonzales today.
Congrats, mryankee. I’m impressed.
I bet he’s secretly Mr. Met
Haha. Awesome. I would have gone with that weird mascot the Nets have. It’s like Master Splinter, a goat, and a yeti all had a weird, weird night together.
Sly’s looking for an assistant, FWIW. Could be a great job opportunity.
http://www.nba.com/nets/team/mascot_assistant.html
jeter was not lucky.
stats are great but in jeter’s case not entirely accurate.
jeter’s bat control is such that those ‘lucky’ hits were actually aimed/placed/umped exactly where they fell.
XBABIP assumes by how hard a hit was whether or not it should have been a hit.
again jeter knowns exactly what to ‘take off’ a batted ball to make it die just beyond the second basemen’s reach.
stats are great but don’t tell the whole story.
Homer.
i’m definitely a homer but am objective.
i don’t see any other yankee hitter breaking the XBABIP mold as jeter does.
he certainly jumps out as he led the team in ‘lucky hits’ and i just contend these hits were not lucky.
I’m pretty sure that if you’d look at the career stats of Jeter & Ichiro, you’d see that their batting average is quite a bit higher than their xBABIP would indicate. The reasons for this are probably due to their speed, harder hit ground balls and placemant – a.k.a. “hitring ‘em where they ain’t”.
Career values are of course much less subject to random fluctuations than season values due to the much larger sample size.
Fast players who run well should have better BABIP than expected (Jeter, Ichiro), while slow players should have worse BABIP than expected (Matsui, Giambi).
[...] the second time this week, I’m totally going to steal a post idea from another site, this time Lookout Landing. I can’t help it. Those guys over there do some [...]
[...] we can find out just how unlucky the offense has been using xBABIP, or expected BABIP. I’ve introduced you to xBABIP [...]