Jan
06

Open Thread: Who is the next Yankee HOFer?

By

Another year has passed without a Yankee entering the Hall of Fame. Not only that, but there aren’t any Yankees currently on the ballot who stand a fighting chance. Don Mattingly, though he improved his vote total from 11.9 percent last year to 16.1 percent this year, has just a few more years of eligibility, and chances are he won’t approach the 75 percent threshold. So who will be the next player to wear a Yankees cap in the HOF?

Bernie Williams? He last played a game in 2006, so his time will come soon enough. But will he get the vote? Certainly not on the first few ballots, and even after that it will take a Jim Rice effort to get him in. If he’s on the ballot in 2012, I don’t expect to see him get in before 2025, if at all.

Roger Clemens? He last pitched in 2007, putting him on the 2013 ballot. Two questions here: 1) Will the voters put the steroid allegations aside? 2) Is there any chance he goes in as a Yankee? He did win two World Series in the Bronx, as well as his 300th game. But, since he spent more time with the Sox than any other team, chances are he’ll go in with their cap. But even then, chances are he’ll spend a few years in limbo.

Mike Mussina? He’s slated for the 2014 ballot, and he certainly has a case. But he spent a year and a half longer with the Orioles, and those were generally more productive years. Five times he was top five in the Cy Young balloting with Baltimore and only once with New York. Again, it’ll take a few ballots for Moose to make his case, and there’s a good chance he never gets in. But if he does, I bet he dons orange and white.

Beyond those three, we’re looking at active players. If we’re choosing among them, it’s pretty obvious that Mo gets the first nod. He and Derek Jeter will get in on the first ballot — and A-Rod should, though we never know how the voters will go on that one. But, since it’s almost a certainty that Jeter plays longer than Mo, it’s safe bet that Mo goes in first. Since he’s a first balloter, he’ll probably get in ahead of Bernie and Clemens.

So, barring unforeseen circumstances, I think we can reasonably predict that Mariano Rivera will be the next Yankees representative in the Hall of Fame.

With that, enjoy the open thread for the evening.

Categories : Open Thread

181 Comments»

  1. Salty Buggah says:

    After Mo, ,A-Rod, and Jeter and maybe Posada, next Yankee HOFers will be:

    - Teixeira (if he gets to 500 HRs and he has a good defensive rep so that’ll help if people bring up him being a 1Bman)

    - CC (assuming he doesn’t opt and doesn’t get hurt, he should pile up wins with the Yanks)

    - Joba (that’s right, fuck the B-Jobbers and haters)

    - Jesus Montero (legendary beast)

    - Melvin Croussett (most obvious)

    • CC will be the interesting case. He’s certainly on a HoF path right now, but how many years will he actually be here in pinstripes? That’s the question. He’ll need to pitch out the entirety of his 7 year deal here to warrant wearing a Yankee cap, minimum. Probably needs more.

      He could end up like Mussina: two fairly evenly split halves of his career with two separate teams. Tough call on the cap question.

      • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster) says:

        Do you think he’ll opt out? I’m not very good with all the contract shit, so I have no clue.

        BTW, I agree with everybody on this list except that Robbie Cano should be added.

        Yanks have the potential to really get a fine, strong young core. We already have a decent one now.

    • After Dawson, why not let everyone in?

    • Jorge won’t get in on the early ballots if he gets in at all. Mo’s a first ballot entry for sure. That’s why I left him off.

    • Chris says:

      If you look at Dawson’s first 12 seasons and compare them to Jorge so far:

      Dawson: 1596 G, 6800 PA, .811 OPS, 122 OPS+
      Jorge: 1594 G, 6312 PA, .859 OPS, 124 OPS+

      Considering that Dawson was a good defensive CF for most of that time and Jorge was a poor defensive C I don’t think there’s a significant difference.

      • MikeD says:

        Really? Who says Jorge was a poor defensive catcher? I’m not saying he’s a great defensive catcher, but there is certainly a wide gulf between those two choices. Roger Clemens and his 350+ wins said Jorge is the best catcher he’s ever had. Andy Pettitte and his 229 and counting wins also said the same. Mo also seems to like Jorge.

        So basically because AJ didn’t like pitching to him, suddenly Jorge sucks behind the plate, even though he was the starting catcher for the past decade for a team that made the playoffs in 9 of the ten seasons, won the AL Pennant four of those seasons, and was World Champions two of those seasons? Oh, and the one season the Yankees didn’t make the playoffs was the one season that Jorge missed because of an injury.

        Sanity, folks, sanity.

        • JAG says:

          To be fair, although catcher defense is difficult to quantify with advanced statistics, Jorge is certainly not a good defensive catcher. He might not be Piazza bad, but he’s certainly nowhere close to Mauer or someone like that. A couple of years ago, Varitek gave him a run for his money because, although Tek was not as good offensively, he was far and away superior on D. Now, of course, he can’t do either.

          Anyway, point is, Jorge is average at best as a defensive catcher. Do I think that still makes him a HOF candidate? Possibly, partly depends on how his career wraps up and how much the voters see Dawson as a precursor. Remember that, although Dawson was a good defensive CF, catcher offense carries a LOT more weight then offense at pretty much any other position (except pitcher, I suppose. A pitcher who averages more than 10 HR and a .300 OBP per year would be pretty impressive). So, if Jorge’s offensive career matches up favorably to other non-catcher Hall of Famers, i think that makes Jorge a pretty solid HOFer. Maybe not 1st ballot, but still a good case.

          -JM

  2. JGS says:

    Jeter will be next

    Mo will play until he is 60

  3. Mariano will not retire. He will ascend into Heaven.

  4. Oh and to continue with the theme, Mo won’t get in first because when he’s done closing, he’s going to move to SS and take Jeter’s spot.

  5. danny says:

    heyman just said one of his reasons for not voting for bert blyleven was bc he never lead the league in wins.

    Oy!

  6. Thomas says:

    Melvin. The first active player to be inducted in the HOF.

    Just kidding.

    But seriously, Melvin, he will be the first active player inducted into the HOF.

  7. Honestly, I could see Jeter retiring before Mo. Although neither of them will in our lifetime, which is just as well.

  8. Thomas says:

    While he won’t go in as Yankee, if he makes it at all, dare I say Kevin Brown.

    211-144 with a 3.28 ERA, a 127 ERA+, and a 1.222 WHIP.

    • He was quite a good pitcher.

    • Accent Shallow says:

      While he may be worthy of induction, zero chance do the writers vote him in. Legendary jerk, linked with steroids? I bet he falls off the first ballot.

      Personally, I think he’s up there with Schilling and Mussina in terms of career value, but. . . no way does he go in.

      • He was a great pitcher, sure, but was he a big game pitcher like Jack Morris? I don’t think so.

        Sincerely,
        Jon Heyman

        • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster) says:

          Mike Francessa was arguing how he was about at Andy Pettite’s level in the regular season, but he was “such a great postseason pitcher. He had some tremendous games. Andy’s not up there with him in the postseason. Don’t look at wins, look at ERA.”

          Andy Pettite, regular season ERA (just for a reference point): 3.91

          Jack Morris, egular season ERA: 3.90

          Andy Pettite, postseason ERA: 3.90

          Jack Morris, postseason ERA: 3.80

          Oh yeah, based on that tremendoud disparity in statistics, clearly Morris is far supoerior in the postseason. There you go, Morris is a HOF’er.

          [Farts]

          • JAG says:

            I love how Francessa throws out the most meaningless statistic (wins)… and then points to another relatively meaningless one in ERA. So close, and yet so far.

            -JM

  9. Matty Ice says:

    Randy Johnson??

    • Not wearing a Yankee cap.

      (Although that does raise a good question: Seattle or Arizona? I say Arizona. That 6 year span from 1999-2004 trumps his stint in Seattle, even though it’s longer. Plus, he picked up two more years in Arizona after his stint here.

      When I close my eyes and think of Randy Johnson, though, I picture him as a Mariner.

      Tough call.

      • Accent Shallow says:

        Riffing: has any team been burned more by hoping their deadline deal pulls a Holliday (i.e. resigns in free agency) than Houston? They got incredible half-seasons and post-seasons from Johnson (’98) and Beltran (’04), only to see both leave for greener pastures, leaving them without comparable options.

        Ouch.

      • Frigidevil says:

        He may have been better in Seattle, but he’s going in a d-back. Numbers speak volumes, but people remember the hardware. 1 cy young and a no-hitter vs. 4 straight cy youngs, a perfect game, and a ring to go with his world series co-mvp award.

  10. G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB

    Player X
    21 Seasons
    G-2627
    AB-9927
    R-1373
    H-2774
    2B-503
    HR-438
    RBI-1591
    BB-589
    SO-1509
    BA-.279
    OBP-.323
    SLG-.482
    OPS-.806
    OPS+119
    TB-4787

    Player Y
    12 Seasons
    G-1539
    AB-5853
    R-974
    H-1726
    2B-389
    HR-381
    RBI-1239
    BB-683
    SO-961
    BA-.295
    OBP-.369
    SLG-.564
    OPS-.933
    OPS+ 143

    TB-3300

    Name both, then take a wild guess which one’s a HOFer, and which one can’t get any support?

    • JGS says:

      X is Dawson

      Y–Albert Belle?

      • Bingo. I made it too easy. Belle complied 75-90% of Dawson’s career numbers in 12 seasons to Dawson’s 21 seasons, or just below 1/2 the length in career. He actually walked more often (683/589) than Dawson did, though Dawson had 9 more years of career to work with.

        • Tom Zig says:

          People won’t vote for Belle because he was just wasn’t a very chipper person. I don’t think that should be a qualification, but hey whatevs.

        • vin says:

          Fairly or not:

          Belle loses points with the voters for having a relatively short career… only 9 full seasons. It’s hard to get elected to the Hall if you retire at 33 (unless if you were Koufax great).

          He also will get hurt because he didn’t contribute much in the field.

          Although Dawson’s rate stats aren’t particularly inspiring, I can’t necessarily hate a vote for him. There is something to be said for being really good for 13 seasons.

          It’s kind of ironic, actually:

          Belle’s career was cut short because of his hip problems. Dawson’s overall effectiveness was impacted because of his knee problems (from playing on the turf in Montreal).

          The difference is Dawson was able to grind out 9 more years after his peak, Belle just retired.

          • JGS says:

            the strike also robbed him of his most eye-poppingly good years

            in 1994-5, he was .334/.417/.700/1.117 with 86 home runs, 227 RBIs, 131 BB, 151 K in just 106 games in 1994 and 143 (in which he hit 50 of those home runs) in 1995

          • You can swing a bat on bad knees. Matsui and Giambi have done it for years, and I could name a bunch of catchers who had knee troubles as they aged yet kept playing.

            You can’t generate any power if you have a bad hip. That’s where most of it comes from.

            • vin says:

              I’m not blaming him for retiring.

              Just noting that his degenerative hip ended his career, while Dawson’s turf-induced knee problems allowed him to keep playing (but presumably at a somewhat impaired level).

              Dawson had better bad luck than Belle.

  11. Tom Zig says:

    A-Rod should, though we never know how the voters will go on that one.

    A-rod’s contract is up after the 2017 season. So his earliest year of eligibility for the Hall of Fame is…2023?

    By then I wonder if most people will have forgotten his steroids incidents. I probably will have forgotten about it. (Not like the steroids thing matters to me anyway)

  12. Steve H says:

    Can someone explain to me how Albert Belle finished (teh) 8th in the MVP voting in 1998? I understand the voters wouldn’t have noticed him leading the league in OPS and OPS+, but he also bashed a voter friendly 49 HR’s and 152 RBI, while also leading the league in total bases. Now I’m not saying he had to finish 1st, but 8th, really? Go look at what a ridiculously monster season that was, I don’t care if his team went 10-152, he should have finished much, much higher. Dude was a beast.

  13. vin says:

    Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens will be on the ballot together in 2013. That should be interesting.

    I’m guessing McGwire’s return to the Cards actually helps them get into the HOF on the first ballot. IMO, the best thing for a PED user to do is disappear for a little while, let the dust settle, then come back and be somewhat open about your transgressions. I think McGwire will need to address the issue, and the public perception will be improved.

    • If neither of them gets in on the first time, I’ll never visit the HOF again.

      • Tom Zig says:

        I don’t think they will. Partly because the steroid allegations came towards the end of their careers or after their careers. Steroids or not, those two were great ball players and deserve to be in the hall of fame.

        • Tom Zig says:

          But then again that’s 3 years from now, hopefully we can get some new voters out there.

        • Yep.

          Semi-Related Tweet from K-Law: # I’m dying to see which ornithophile-BBWAA member withholds his vote from Randy Johnson on the 2015 ballot. 4:07 PM Jan 5th from web

          • Tom Zig says:

            He won’t be unanimous because he shoved a camera man once.

            • JGS says:

              he won’t be unanimous because the same morons will be submitting blank ballots again

              • Maybe Obama really should put some Death Panels into #HCR. The elderly wing of the BBWAA could use some thinning out.

                /SocialDarwinism’d

              • JAG says:

                I really think that, if you’re given the honor of voting for the Hall of Fame, you should not be allowed to submit a blank ballot unless you can make a case that NONE of the eligible players are Hall-worthy. Just submitting a blank ballot to be a jerk should cost you your voting rights. But that’s me. It’s not going to happen.

                -JM

          • Yeah, I thought the exact same thing this morning, as I’m sure a lot of other people did. Unit’s 1st ballot should be Seaver-like, where you track down the few oddballs who didn’t vote for him and try to rescind their BBWAA membership.

      • DCBX says:

        I just want to see Barry try to keep a straight face when he sees The Asterisk Ball in person. He’s not known for being a laid back guy.

    • If McGwire admits to using PEDs as a batting coach, it will be the first time he’s ever done so in public. I’m not holding my breath.

      • Mike Axisa says:

        Why should he admit anything? He never tested positive, was never named in the Mitchell Report, and andro wasn’t banned in baseball until three years after he retired.

        Maybe, just maybe, he’s actually innocent.

      • vin says:

        I don’t see how he can NOT admit to something. If he doesn’t admit anything than he will be a major distraction to a team that doesn’t usually have distractions (LaRussa’s DUI aside).

        But then again, I’m still not sure if David Ortiz admitted to anything and he’s still “lovable”… that just got conveniently swept under the rug.

    • Januz says:

      If you look at McGwire’s vote total this year (23.7% or 121 votes), which is without change from before, that is not good for him. I don’t think he will make it, and I think that Palmeiro
      will not either. I could actually see a scenario where Clemens and Bonds have to wait as long as Blyleven, until A-Rod retires, to see if any steroid users are ever elected.

  14. [...] Yankees Blog, RiverAveBlues takes a look at who the next Yankee to make the Hall of Fame will [...]

  15. Bernie Williams? He last played a game in 2006, so his time will come soon enough. But will he get the vote? Certainly not on the first few ballots, and even after that it will take a Jim Rice effort to get him in.

    Way ahead of you, buddy. Way ahead of you.

  16. Bryan says:

    hopefully the big stein is the next to go in

  17. If either Clemens or Mussina do get in (and they should), they should go in as a Red Sock and an Oriole.

    Not that I didn’t like them as Yankees (I did), but that’s the primary teams they should be associated with for historical posterity.

  18. Crazy Eyes Killa says:

    I don’t expect Mo to retire for atleast another 10 seasons, is that unreasonable or something? Isn’t he in his prime?

  19. vin says:

    Andrew Dawson is kind of in that Brooks Robinson/Gary Carter level of the HOF.

    Compared to Brooks:

    Nearly identical OBP, but Andre had much more power. Both played a very long time.

    Brooks gets credit for having a great glove, and performing well in the playoffs… voters eat that sort of thing up.

    Both were remembered as being better than they really were, though.

  20. vin says:

    Of course I know its “Andruw Dawson.”

  21. I find it curious that many of the same voters who will vote for Morris but not Blyleven (citing “dominance” over “longevity and stat compiling”) will also vote for Jim Rice and Andre Dawson but not Albert Belle.

    Albert Belle PWNED baseball. You think Jim Rice was feared? Albert Belle was f$#%&ing terrifying.

  22. dygg says:

    Sorry to get off the HoF topic, but does anyone know if there have been any updates regarding free agent Kevin Towers?

  23. You know who got snubbed by the BBWAA once again? Not Blyleven, not Alomar, not even Albert Belle.

    http://www.baseball-reference......sn01.shtml

    Snuffy Stirnweiss.

  24. http://espn.go.com/blog/SweetS.....we-thought

    Good piece by Neyer on the Dawson fiasco.

    .323 OBP. 20 points lower than Lou Brock, who used to be at the bottom.

  25. Drew says:

    Anyone ever take the Port Imperial ferry over to Midtown? I have an interview tomorrow near 7th and 53rd and was wondering how much time I should give myself.

  26. Yankeefan91 Arod Fan says:

    Seriously what the hell are the cardinals doing paying Holliday all that money until 2029.

  27. Beechtop says:

    Mo gets in automatically and will be the next one.

    Among his off the chart credentials are his postseason scoreless inning record of 34 1/3. He has pitched 133.1 postseason innings yielding only 13 runs, 11 earned, for a 0.74 ERA. Unbelievable.

    BUT: Does anyone know, or know how to learn, how many of his 133 postseason innings were scoreless overall, consecutive or not?

    Even more, does any starter in history have more scoreless postseason innings than Mo’s?

    Or does Mo hold the AGGREGATE scoreless innings record as well?

    My guess is that he’s probably not even close to the leading starter’s postseason scoreless innings total.

    A little help?

  28. Fred says:

    duh! it will be Tim Raines

  29. http://www.nydailynews.com/spo.....Yankees%29

    Clemens’ mistress to air the dirty laundry manana.

  30. Teix is the Man says:

    Courtesy of FoxSports.com

    “Red Sox moving phenom CF to left”

    I know this is old news, but I laughed at the context of the headline.

    • JobaWockeeZ says:

      It should be more like “Red Sox Make Good Move Moving Horrible CF Defender to Left”

    • “Red Sox moving phenom CF to left”

      I can only assume this is referring to Casey Kelly.

      Converting him to an LHP is risky, but if any prospect can handle it with aplomb, it’s Kelly. I expect that now that he’s a lefty, he’ll shoot right past Steven Strasburg to #1 overall on the prospect lists.

      • JobaWockeeZ says:

        I can only assume this is referring to Casey Kelly.

        Converting him to an LHP is risky, but if any prospect can handle it with aplomb, it’s Kelly.

        So now he’s Pat Venditte AND a powerful switch hitter? Best prospect of all time!
        <b? I expect that now that he’s a lefty, he’ll shoot right past Steven Strasburg to #1 overall on the prospect lists.

        Please, Kelly when he was a shortstop was already a better prospect than Strasburg.

  31. Matty Ice says:

    I can’t wait to hear why some voters leave Mo off the ballot. Because if all they can come with is “so no one goes in unanimously” then I’ll be royally pissed.

  32. Zack says:

    http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/0.....rent-ones/

    “7s (Dominant Player/No. 2 Starter)”
    “OF: Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday, Curtis Granderson, Torii Hunter, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, Justin Upton”

    What name in there is not like the others?

  33. From mlbtraderumors.com
    “As part of his new seven year, $120MM contract, Matt Holliday will be collecting paychecks from the Cardinals through 2029 according to the AP (via SI.com). As you know, the contract calls for a $17MM annual salary through 2016 with an option for 2017, however $2MM is deferred without interest each season. Depending on whether or not the option is picked up/vests, Holliday will be paid either $1.4MM or $1.6MM on July 15th every year from 2020 to 2029.’

    Does that money go on their team payroll?

    • A.D. says:

      Not sure that would count against MLB payroll/luxury tax purposes since they use AAV which is a 7 year 17 per contract (even if they had front or backloaded over the 7 years).

      Can’t believe that the option is based on top 10 of 2016 MVP voting, especially given what happened to the Braves and Vazquez this year.

    • Ed says:

      For luxury tax issues, he is considered to be earning $17m/year for the next 7 years.

      For union purposes, they will adjust the payments for inflation and create a “present day” value, which they use in their calculations for things like average salaries.

      If the Cardinals management is talking about a payroll budget with the press, they’re probably counting it as $15m but want whoever they’re negotiating with at the time to think of it as $17m.

  34. Bob Stone says:

    Who will hit more home runs in 2010 – Carlos Pena or ARod? Should I take this as a friendly bet with my sister who loves the Rays?

  35. JFH says:

    Bernie won’t be on the ballot in 2012, b/c the Yankees, in an effort to save some money, will bring Bernie back this year to play left field.

  36. EB says:

    Chone projections for 2010 now up on fangraphs.

    http://tinyurl.com/ya9ypwc

    Of interest to me: Melky’s WoBA projected at .358, Curtis at .359

    Also Shelley Duncan at .356, higher than Jorge at .353 and Damon at .352

  37. [...] a side note, Joseph Pawlikowski at RAB wrote a good article about who is the next Yankees’ Hall of Famer. Check it out, it’s a good [...]

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