2011 Post-Draft Top 30 Prospects
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(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
The draft signing deadline has come and gone, and depending on your point of view, the Yankees either landed some promising talent or had another underwhelming draft. I’m somewhere in the middle, loving the arms but a little iffy on the bats. It would have been nice if they had signed second rounder Sam Stafford, since power lefties are always in demand. Anyway, these guys are new members of the Yankees family, and now we have to figure out exactly where they fit in.
Unsurprisingly, not all that much has changed since my pre-draft list. There just hasn’t been enough time for anyone to change their stock all that much, one way or another. As you’ll see, the majority of the players that moved around did so due to injury. Let’s dive in, with the most familiar of prospect names up top…
- Jesus Montero, C, AAA – strong April (~.365 wOBA), subpar May and June (~.315), big July and August (~.375 wOBA) … stuck in Triple-A because the Yankees are unwilling to put the best team on the field
- Manny Banuelos, LHSP, AAA – uncharacteristically mediocre control this year, but he’s still a 20-year-old kid in the highest level of the minors
- Dellin Betances, RHSP, AAA – having a typical Betances year, but the key is that he’s been completely healthy aside from a little blister in April
- Austin Romine, C, AA – he needs to be in Triple-A and VP of Baseball Ops Mark Newman admitted it … the lack of a Montero promotion has a trickle down effect
- Gary Sanchez, C, LoA – attitude issues in the first half, then a broken finger derailed what had been a big second half (~.375 wOBA and a dozen homers in 38 games)
- Mason Williams, CF, SS – not just having a great year for SI, but apparently he has way more power potential than I realized
- J.R. Murphy, C, HiA – has been out with some kind of leg/foot injury for a month now, but impressed with improved defense and a measly strikeout rate (12.8%) in the first half
- Hector Noesi, RHRP, MLB – technically still a prospect, but that 50 IP cutoff isn’t far away (he’s at 42.2 IP) … I really wish he was starting in AAA
- Adam Warren, RHSP, AAA – has pitched his way into being the next guy in line should the Yankees need a starter
- David Phelps, RHSP, AAA – had a little shoulder scare, but he rejoined the AAA rotation last week
- Brett Marshall, RHSP, HiA – stuff came back after Tommy John surgery and he’s getting a ton of grounders … hopefully the whiffs will follow
- Slade Heathcott, CF, HiA – another year, another shoulder injury … that’s his third since his senior year of high school, including one surgery
- Bryan Mitchell, RHSP, SS – huge stuff but really raw … going to be a long-term project, but there’s significant upside here
- Graham Stoneburner, RHSP, AA – the neck strain from hell cost him a little more than two months, and he’s still just working his way back to full effectiveness
- Corban Joseph, 2B, AA – can definitely hit, but I have to wonder where he’ll wind up defensively because he isn’t unseating Robinson Cano … trade bait
- Ramon Flores, LF, LoA – showing off top notch plate discipline and gap power, which will hopefully develop into over the fence power as he grows into his 5-foot-10 frame
- Brandon Laird, 3B, AAA – not having a great year in Triple-A, but got his first taste of the bigs and serves a purpose
- Cito Culver, SS, SS – solid year with SI, not great but not terrible … going to have to keep proving the doubters wrong
- Rob Segedin, 3B, HiA – made quick work of the Sally League and has held his own in the Florida State League, though an injury cost him some time
- Greg Bird, C – we’ll see if he can catch, but either way it’s up to the lefty power bat to carry him
- George Kontos, RHRP, AAA – proving himself to be strikeout reliever at the minors’ highest level, he’s on the cusp right now
- D.J. Mitchell, RHSP, AAA – servicable arm still has some issues with lefties, but he’s as big league ready as it gets
- Chase Whitley, RHRP, AA – hasn’t missed a ton of bats in his first full year as a pro, but the Yankees are trying to teach him a slider in lieu of the his usual changeup
- Andrew Brackman, RHRP, AAA – it’s been an ugly year and time is starting to run out … has just one more minor league option for next year
- Dante Bichette Jr., 3B, Rk – what we do know: he can crush GCL pitching … what we don’t know: where’s he going to play down the road?
- David Adams, 2B, HiA – made it back for a few weeks before hitting the DL again, but he can definitely hit … can he ever manage to stay on the field?
- Ravel Santana, CF, Rk – brutal ankle injury ended what was exciting U.S. debut, with lots of power (.273 ISO) and lots of speed (10-for-13 in SB attempts)
- Jordan Cote, RHSP – big (6-foot-5, 205 lbs.), raw, and projectable, so he’s right up my alley
- Jose Ramirez, RHSP, LoA – just hasn’t progressed much since the start of last year (if at all), but the fastball-changeup combo is still very good
- Melky Mesa, CF, AA – still has an all-world tools package, but hasn’t been able to build on the progress he made last year
Number 31 was Tyler Austin, who was very tough to leave off the list. He’s too good to be a sleeper, but I like some other guys just a little more. Stafford would have certainly cracked the top 30, likely between Mitchell and Whitley without putting a ton of thought into it. Four players dropped off the pre-draft list entirely: Ryan Pope, Eduardo Sosa, Zach Nuding, and Tim Norton. All four missed time with injury and had barely made the cut in the first place, so some healthy new draftees took their spots. I’ll be perfectly honest, I did not expect all three of Montero, Banuelos, and Betances to still be around after the trade deadline, but I’m happy to have them and I’m sure the team is too.
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Hector has expired his rookie status by being on an active 25-man roster for more than 45 days.
Doesn’t Baseball America keep guys on prospect lists until they hit IP/AB milestones? I’m thinking that’s what Mike is doing here.
Zolio Almonte not making the latter half of the list is kind of surprising. He mashed at Hi A and is holding his own at AA. Almonte isnt an up the middle talent like Heathcott , but he’s not old for AA and probably a better bet than Mesa to keep hitting in the higher levels.
I agree. Only thing I would change is Zoilo > Mesa.
Mesa:1/31/1987
A+ = PA: 524, wOBA: .378
AA = PA: 371, wOBA: .307
Zoilo: 6/10/1989
A+ = PA: 549, wOBA: .365
AA = PA: 136, wOBA: .330
Would Turley have made it had he not gotten injured?
What’s up with all the injuries? Some of these kids are missing a ton of development time. For shame!
Injuries happen to the prospect pool every year — it’s simply part of the development process. Think Alan Horne or Christian Garcia. That’s why a strong organization doesn’t put all its eggs in one basket.
obviously they dont know how to deelop prospects or they wouldnt be injured
Jesus Montero, C, AAA… stuck in Triple-A because the Yankees are unwilling to put the best team on the field
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Is it though?
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Is there anything that this organization does that you won’t defend? Montero’s clearly a better DH option than Posada has been for the past few months, clearly a better back up catcher than Cervelli, he’s been ready for the show since Spring Training. Posada’s been pretty awful, a recent hot streak notwithstanding, and there’s plenty of reason to call him up.
Montero literally not ever doing a thing in the big leagues apparantly equals being clearly a better option than two players on the roster.
Not to slip into Michael Kay mode here, but Jesus Montero would be a guy you saw in the “Coming Up!” portion of the Team Yearbook were it not for sites like these, right next to Vic Mata and Clay Christiansen.
They’re not even giving him the chance show what he can do.
He’s 21 in AAA. Why is it such a big deal that they’re taking it slow with him?
Because he’s repeating AAA and Romine is stuck behind him.
So? There’s fundamentally wrong with him spending two years in AAA (or Romine spending two years in AA).
Therefore, you can’t say that he’s clearly a better option.
Is Montero clearly an upgrade over Andruw Jones?
Well Andruw Jones can play a defensive position, he’s good enough against LHP and in the field to give players like Gardner or Granderson a day off if they need it. Posada’s a platoon DH. Occasional first basemen, but realistically he’s a platoon DH.
And on the side Posada platoons from he’s hitting .275/.354/.453.
Posada the platoon DH for 2011 >>> Montero the platoon DH for 2011
You don’t know that, Montero hasn’t had the chance to even come to the show. He’s been working more on his defense than his hitting in Scranton anyways; and there’s a legitimate number of scouts/industry figures that feel that he needs a challenge and the bigs will provide that.
No, I don’t know that. I’m assuming likely probabilities, though.
Jesus Montero is a hitting savant and a generational talent. That being said, the likelihood that Jesus Montero the 21 year old hitting phenom comes up to the big leagues and outhits the Posada/Jones/Chavez DH amalgam is exceedingly remote. Most players, good, bad, or in between, struggle when they first come up. It’s the nature of baseball.
You’ve basically said that Jesus Montero is an exceptional talent. A talent that must not be judged by the norms of the typical player of his age. He’s age appropriate for High-A tampa still and he’s two levels above it and holding his own. Some industry pundits even think he’s bored. Those industry pundits know a shitload more about this stuff than we do, and by and large they’re pretty fucking reasonable people.
So while you acknowledge that he is an exception, you still compare him to the norm. Guys that look like Donald Trump and have Donald Trump’s personality usually don’t tend to attract beautiful women and people that want to spend time around them. However, Donald Trump is a billionaire so he isn’t judged by the same standards that bizzarre looking assholes are judged. Jesus Montero has drawn Frank Thomas comparisons, he shouldn’t be judged by the same standards that other 21 year old baseball players are judged by.
Jesus has a .340 wOBA in AAA… why on earth would we expect that his wOBA would go UP in MLB? It happens (especially when talking about small samples), but that’s just not what you expect. Frank Thomas boasted a AA OPS over 1.000 when he was called up at 22 and did not have to play C.
“Those industry pundits know a shitload more about this stuff than we do, and by and large they’re pretty fucking reasonable people.”
Debatable… those are journalists and occasionally baseball people, and “this stuff” you are referring to is psychology.
Jesus has a .340 wOBA in AAA… why on earth would we expect that his wOBA would go UP in MLB? It happens (especially when talking about small samples), but that’s just not what you expect. Frank Thomas boasted a AA OPS over 1.000 when he was called up at 22 and did not have to play C.
Please Ted, Jesus Montero had a .375 wOBA last year, so do you think his skills deteriorated over the winter? It’s a wide industry thought that some players need a challenge. It’s happened a few times in the Yankee organization. Remember when Hanley Ramirez was pretty weak in DOUBLE A but ended up winning rookie of the year the very next season, baseball folks thought he needed a challenge. They saw the skills were there and had a good feeling that if he were promoted to the bigs that he’d produce. They’ve been saying similar things about Jesus Montero. I don’t expect him to be better than anyone at the big league level, frankly I don’t know what to expect. I think he can provide more value than Posada. I think this for several reasons:
1.) Every scout raves about his bat, “once in a generation” is pretty much boiler plate when talking about Montero’s bat.
2.) Jorge’s slowed down, his bat isn’t as fast as it used to be and he’s a platoon DH. At least Montero can catch, he provides more roster flexibility than Posada does, I don’t see how this is really debatable.
3.) He had a .375 wOBA as a 20 year old in AAA. He was basically age appropriate for low A ball and he played pretty damn well three levels over his head. His numbers aren’t as good last year, and there was nothing in the jacket to suggest that 2010 was a fluke or he’s gotten worse this year. I think it’s reasonable to say that he needs a challenge.
I’d like to see Montero given the chance to show his stuff.
…and Posada’s stats were given to above. That’s actually happened and trumps what you read some scouts/industry industry.
I know I’m being tough on you, but out excitement at seeing what Montero could become should not trump what’s actually happening in front of us.
We all want Jesus Montero to make it to the bigs and start his journey towards being a superstar player, but the emotional desire to see him promoted should not make you blind to the fact that the four people performing in his various big league jobs (starting catcher and DH) are all playing quite effectively and Montero would likely not present any form of an upgrade this season.
Jesus Montero is the shiznit, but Russell Martin, Jorge Posada, Andruw Jones, and Eric Chavez are all good players playing well and helping the 2011 Yankees win ballgames.
The emotional desire to see him promoted should definitely not lead us to suggest he’d be playing over Gardner and/or Granderson as Jimmy suggests. There’s a chance he’d come up and outperform the Yankees two most valuable position players (by fWAR) as a rookie… but it’s not a good one.
Gardner and Granderson don’t need to be constantly getting days off… they are two of the best hitters/players on the team. Montero would have to have a hell of a rookie season to justify sitting Granderson or Gardner so that he could play.
The point is that Montero potentially represents a marginal upgrade… ***if*** he comes up slugging as a 21 year old rookie. Which is pretty hit and miss. Some rookies come up hot, others struggle out of the gate.
At the same time the Yankees seem to feel the long-term is better served with him catching every day to improve at one of the positions where offensive talent is scarcest.
So maybe he could marginally improve the team in the short-term, maybe not. Maybe he is better served catching every day in AAA to improve defensively, maybe not.
There is certainly an argument for your and Mike Axisa’s point that Montero could help the team, but there is also an argument that keeping him down is the right move. You guys are ignoring that argument and acting like anyone who agrees with it or recognizes it is an idiot.
The Granderson/Gardner point is extremely valid. Any playing time you take away from Jones against leftys as a DH is gunna substituted by taking either of those guys out of lineup. So thats something that should definetley be taken into consideration. We all understand the hype of Jesus Montero and we all wanna finally see if this guys gunna be as great as hes projected be. With that said, I dont think theyd be hurting this guy by bringing him up under a smaller roll. If you let Martin walk and bring up Montero as the starter, all the pressure is on him to perform. Look at Robinson Cano. 06? 07? 08?? Nobody thought this guy was gunna be this good. Its all about maturing at the major league level. Guys dont just come up and play to thier potential. Having guys like Girardi, Posada, Martin, Tony Pena. Having these guys around would really benefit and help Monteros progress as a defender I believe. I understand keeping him down, but I don’t.
I don’t think the Yankees are planning to let Martin walk. I assume they are going to let Montero go at his own speed in the majors with both Martin and Cervelli competing with him at C and a bat or two competing with him at DH. I think they want him to play every day right now because he is so young and playing the position that generally takes the longest time to develop at. There are not many 21 year old Cs around, ever. Cano was not a C and he was still 22 before he came up. I think it’s a combination of factors, but whether Montero comes up now, last month, next month, next season… it’s probably pretty marginal in the grand scheme of his career.
Agreed. My whole point to my rant including Cano was even if guys need some time to develop at the Major League level they can turn out to be like him. I strongly believe he would benefit from being here now and playing as much as possible without taking playing time away from Martin/ The DH trio.. foursome, whatever. I want Martin back. I dont think its smart to thrust him into the spotlight. Thats my whole point.
My whole point is that he can play every day now in AAA, improve his defense, and then do what you’re suggesting next season.
Is there anything that this organization does that you won’t defend?
This organization has 27 world championships, including one in the past five years, has one of the best farm systems in the game, and currently is 30 games above .500.
This organization does shitloads of defensible things. I’m not the one taking ludicrous stances that the Yankees are fucked up in so many ways.
And the organization like every other organization fucks up in many different ways. It’s because the Yankees spend the most amount of money fin the past decade that these mistakes don’t show. It doens’t mean we can just ignore it, brush it off, and only focus on what makes the team brilliant.
Oh, most definitely. And I’m critical of the organization’s decisionmaking on numerous occasions.
I probably defend more than I’m critical, though, because on the whole, the org does way more defensible correct things than incorrect things to be criticized on, as evidenced by (among other things) all the successes outlined above.
I can agree with that.
Here’s a few of things this you’ve defended:
Not calling up Jesus Montero even when Posada went through a streak of woeful inadequacy at the plate. Also, while simultaneously suggesting that Jesus Montero could go through a long period of time as an everyday catcher, even though no one in the industry, outside of the organization, thinks he can catch for an extended period of time and there’s an awful breakdown rate for catchers his size.
Keeping AJ Burnett in the rotation.
Javier Vazquez.
I’m unaware of your stance on Joba Chamberlain, but I have a feeling you are of the opinion that the Yankees did nothing wrong with him when he was a prospect.
I mean, this year you basically defended the Yankees not even attempting to make an upgrade at their two weakest positions. Yes, the organization makes lots of good decisions. No one criticizes those. No one is bitching about the Swisher trade, signing CC Sabathia, Robinson Cano, acquiring Russell Martin for peanuts, and while there is a select group of dipshits that won’t get off Mark Teixeira’s ass they are a few and far between.
Yes, while the organization does have 27 World Championships, twenty of them were under different ownership. What the fuck does what happened when Babe Ruth, Joe DiMaggio, Lou Gehrig, or Mickey Mantle were playing have to do with this current version of the Yankees? No one that was responsible for any of those players are still making decisions that affect the team, so why bring that up? Sure it fits your narrative, but the first 20 rocks that this team won have little to no effect on this current team.
Furthermore, most six of the other seven Championships this organization has won were built by a largely different management group. Cashman may have taken over in 1998, but it was still basically Bob Watson’s team. All the key pieces were in place, yes he made several savvy moves but it’s not like he built that team or anything. He also didn’t have full control until 2005, either, so George Steinbrenner (god rest his soul) had quite a bit of say over the moves that built those championship teams.
I’m not saying this is a bad organization by any means, one of the best in all of professional sports. They are ran by human beings that do make mistakes and, at times, indefensible decisions. You’re developing a cult of personality around the Yankees that’s almost worse than the RSN bullshit. At least they went through 86 years of inadequacy, of course they’ll worship anyone who brings them out of the dark ages.
Not calling up Jesus Montero even when Posada went through a streak of woeful inadequacy at the plate.
Because it was early and Posada had a chance to rebound. Which he did, btw.
Keeping AJ Burnett in the rotation.
No I didn’t. I said people were bitching way too much about it, but I didn’t say Burnett should stay in the rotation. I said he probably would and people should make peace with it, but I never claimed Burnett remaining in the rotation over Nova/Hughes was the correct decision.
Javier Vazquez.
Yup, because Vazquez has/had talent and that’s a trade you make nine times out of ten. The acquisition didn’t work out because he was unexpectedly hurt/done, but that doesn’t mean the decisionmaking process wasn’t sound.
I’m unaware of your stance on Joba Chamberlain, but I have a feeling you are of the opinion that the Yankees did nothing wrong with him when he was a prospect.
Heh. That’s funny. Go ask some other longtime RAB readers my thoughts on Joba Chamberlain the Yankee Prospect, you’ll be pleasantly surprised.
I mean, this year you basically defended the Yankees not even attempting to make an upgrade at their two weakest positions.
What I actually did:
1.) Called for patience, saying that Posada and Jones would probably improve over the course of the season and prove to be an effective DH platoon, which they now are.
2.) Advocated for numerous potential upgrades, like Carlos Beltran and Jason Giambi, until those upgrades proved either too costly in prospects or not available on the market at all.
3.) Reminded people that one of those two weakest positions is the backup catcher, a position that never amounts to shit and isn’t really worth discussing because that player gets like 24 plate appearances a month and is utterly irrelevant and in no way an impediment to actually winning meaningful games.
4.) Pointed out that even with temporary supbar production from DH and backup catcher the offense is still good as shit and promoting Jesus Montero to fill one of those relatively minor roles is a luxury that needs to be weighed against countermanding luxuries of having Montero play everyday in the minors and not a necessity for a team desperately struggling for an offensive shot in the arm or clawing for every possible win due to a lack of superior talent.
Because it was early and Posada had a chance to rebound. Which he did, btw.
Buuuuut…he’s had one good month as the DH. And that month was on the back of a .382 batting average. He’s been adequate in August but pretty crappy in his other months.
No I didn’t. I said people were bitching way too much about it, but I didn’t say Burnett should stay in the rotation. I said he probably would and people should make peace with it, but I never claimed Burnett remaining in the rotation over Nova/Hughes was the correct decision.
AJ Burnett’s one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, Joe’s post points that out. He’s owed a lot of money over the next two years. This is kind of an odd situation that the Yankees find themselves in. They are far from the first team to sign a player that turned into a massive turd, but they are the first team, to my knowledge, that signed a player that turned into one of the worst in his position in baseball, but also had the burden of competing for a championship every year. Most of these shitty contracts sink a team for a year or two. One bad contract will not sink the Yankees. They can afford to stash him as the long man and give him fewer opportunities to hurt the team. Secondly, as to Burnett, I actually think he might be able to be fixed. Send his ass on the DL and give him a physical…let the minor league pitching coaches take a look at him. I find it hard to believe that he is this bad.
Furthermore saying: He sucks, deal with it, is worse than defending him. You’re basically acknowledging that the Yankees are making the wrong move, but you’re expecting people to be okay with it.
Yup, because Vazquez has/had talent and that’s a trade you make nine times out of ten. The acquisition didn’t work out because he was unexpectedly hurt/done, but that doesn’t mean the decisionmaking process wasn’t sound.
He’s also an extremely HR prone right handed pitcher throughout his career pitching in one of he most HR friendly to LHH ballparks in the bigs. He just got done having the first season where his results matched his peripherals There’s clearly a case where that can go wrong. He had a good June and July and a terrible everything else…he should have been yanked a lot earlier than when he was.
3.) Reminded people that one of those two weakest positions is the backup catcher, a position that never amounts to shit and isn’t really worth discussing because that player gets like 24 plate appearances a month and is utterly irrelevant and in no way an impediment to actually winning meaningful games.
I was actually referring to the rotation and DH being the two weakest positions. Cervelli is probably one of the five best back up catchers in the league. There’s a few teams he can easily start on. They’re probably stronger at back up catcher than they are at any other position, actually.
Montero against AAA pitching is better than Posada against MLB pitching at this point. That’s all we can clearly say.
Very few 21 year olds do well in the majors. Players that young usually struggle in their debut and don’t start living up to their potential until their second or third year. Montero in particular has a history of struggling for a while when first promoted a level.
It’s certainly possible that Montero could come up and instantly be a huge improvement to the team. It’s much more likely that he’ll be a small or even negligible improvement to the team. At that point, there’s more value in having him play every day in the minors working on his defense than being a part time player in the majors.
All of that.
Montero against AAA pitching is better than Posada against MLB pitching at this point. That’s all we can clearly say.
This is a truism and it adds nothing to the conversation, you’re basically saying that
Very few 21 year olds do well in the majors. Players that young usually struggle in their debut and don’t start living up to their potential until their second or third year. Montero in particular has a history of struggling for a while when first promoted a level.
Most 21 year olds don’t already have a 20 HR season at AAA under their belt either. You cannot compare Jesus Montero to most 21 year olds.
<b.It’s certainly possible that Montero could come up and instantly be a huge improvement to the team. It’s much more likely that he’ll be a small or even negligible improvement to the team. At that point, there’s more value in having him play every day in the minors working on his defense than being a part time player in the majors.
Even if he’s a small improvement, that can still mean an extra win or two which is huge in a tight divisional race. Basically the difference between the Wild Card and the Division means facing a team from the AL Central in the DS or facing an actual good baseball team. As far as working on his defense goes? The whole “he’ll be a catcher” thing is a pipe dream. NO ONE in the industry thinks he’ll remain there, best case scenario he’s a DH and back up catcher for 50-60 games a year.
Dante Bichette Jr., 3B, Rk – what we do know: he can crush GCL pitching … what we don’t know: where’s he going to play down the road?
I could see a Swisheresque future for DBJ. Great bat, solidly above average (if graceless) defense in an outfield corner.
Yeah but Swisher was a better athlete at the same age as Dante. Swisher was even a football safty in college I think.
I knew I forgot to draft a position in fantasy football this year…safty!
He was recruited to play football by some big programs like ND but didn’t play at Ohio State.
Dante was a nationally ranked tennis player until he was 15 or so.
Dante beat CM Punk for the WWE title and won the Preakness last year.
Dante traveled to Hell and Purgatory, and made it out again.
Dante nailed Minka when Derek was on the DL.
in 2003.
Dante knocked Chuck Norris out cold.
I agree the Swisher comparison isn’t good. The dude has a career UZR of +16.8. Maybe he’ll be a 2009 or 2010 Swisher where he wasn’t as good…
I don’t think we can saw Swisher type bat from just the GCL. Hell, he could be Miguel Cabrera…real power and racks up 15 hits a day. He’s pretty young, a bit more refined than any of us expected…but it’s still too early to draw just about any conclusion.
I totally agree. Wait and see what he does for the next couple of years before comparing him to a good MLB player.
He goes by Bill, but I love the name.
Listen bushy top. I’ll go by William when I damn please.
Time to move on, Jimmy.
What?
I’m guessing that Swisher was thrown out there as a sort of best case scenario…
I don’t even think it’s soon enough to say a true best case scenario.
Frankly, the only best-case scenarios you believe in are the ones where the Yankees are doing the wrong thing and missing out on the chance to capture the best case scenario.
Frankly, you can’t read. If you could, you would have noticed where I said this:
Hell, he could be Miguel Cabrera…real power and racks up 15 hits a day. He’s pretty young, a bit more refined than any of us expected…but it’s still too early to draw just about any conclusion.
Miguel Cabrera is a hell of a lot better than Nick Swisher. During the draft it sounded like he was Adam Dunn, who I would also rather have than Nick Swisher, well…at least pre-2011 Adam Dunn. So there goes that piece of your narrative.
What we don’t know about DBJ: Can he hit anywhere other than the GCL
The same thing can be said for every player who has never played above whatever level they are at… That’s constantly true when evaluating prospects.
Not every player, if a guy graduates from a bigtime D-1 baseball program, I’m sure it’s reasonably true that he can hit above the GCL. The GCL is special, mainly because it’s rookie ball and most of the best players from his rookie class aren’t even playing with him. Hell, it’s not even that big of a step up from a tough prep program.
It’s true in the vast majority of cases. You are a master of overlooking the big picture in order to blow marginal concerns way, way out of proportion.
Even when a player is in AAA, there is still a whole lot of variability in predicting future MLB success. Yes, the variability is higher in GCL… I never said it wasn’t. What I said is that you can say the same thing about players at higher levels. Take Brandon Laird… guy killed AA, but will he adjust in AAA let alone the MLB? Who knows? More guys get weeded out as they advance in their careers, but there’s no reason to ask it Bichette can hit above GCL and not ask the same question for all the other prospects. Has Bird even appeared for the Yankees yet? The question with him is whether he can even hit in the GCL, yet YankeesJunkie singled Bichette out. I was merely point out to YankeesJunkie that the same is true for other prospects as well.
Jesus looks forlorn in that photo.
It’s a ST pic and he is thinking: “ah another double in the gap but I’m going to Scranton no matter what so who cares?”
There is always next year. I read that most catchers make it at about age 25, and here he is at 21 in AAA.
Jesus looks
forlornbored inthat photoSWB.fixed.
No Claudio? Love his speed, would love to see how he compares defensively with Cito.
OH SHIT IT’S MIKE’S POST DRAFT TOP 30 PROSPECTS!!!
No jairo heredia Love!
He’s probably in the 40-50 range, if I had to guess.
but hes been better than Jose (we can trade arodys vizcaino cause have him) ramirez
The best part of this list is how many of these guys are at Triple A and are near big league ready. Even if they don’t make the Yankees, you can get a lot more in trades from other clubs for near big league ready talent.
Pours out a little beer for Ravel
[Posted at 12:16 pm on a Monday, just for the record.]
Its five o’clock somewhere
…and I’m at work.
Is that what we’re calling sitting outside the Yankees minor league facility in a van with binoculars?
Hey, H. Jon Benjamin has a van, that makes it okay, right?
Depends. Is Aisha Tyler appearing in Andy’s van a possibility?
Lana Kane >>>>>>>>>>> Aisha Tyler
Without a doubt.
Aisha Tyler is funny but not hilarious (Archer’s writers are way funnier than she is in person; listen to her standup and you’ll see).
And obviously, Aisha Tyler’s body is in no way voluptuous.
Nah, they’re in Clearwater.
I think you should make a secondary list and call it “projects” The list would consist of players that have previously made top prospect lists but continue to have serious flaws in their game (ie strikeout way too much and pitchers that cannot harness their control)and players returning from long term injury.Some candidates for this list include Andrew Brackman, Melky Mesa, Kelvin DeLeon and David Adams.Of course the all time project list would include Eric Duncan…..
Why?
Look up the injury histories and you’ll find the answers.
no Pat Venditte??? seriously Mike WTF???
Yeah he’s not a good prospect…
“Jesus Montero, C, AAA – strong April (~.365 wOBA), subpar May and June (~.315), big July and August (~.375 wOBA) … stuck in Triple-A because the Yankees are unwilling to put the best team on the field.”
Would like to say I would expect better, but this is becoming exactly what I expect from Axisa.
No one’s forcing you to read.
Of course not, but neither is anyone forcing RAB to have a comments section?
Only cheer-leading allowed is how you see it?
I am not sure what your problem is with what Mike wrote about Jesus. Please elaborate.
“stuck in Triple-A because the Yankees are unwilling to put the best team on the field.”
Petulance.
If you’ve read my comments I’m far from a cheerleader but okay.
And no one is forcing you to be an imbecile, yet here you are.
axisa got ownd
I demand a refund!
Wait……
Including Brackman but not Adam Warren is ridulous. Brackman is 25 and has had hilarious BB rates not only this year, but 2 of his 3 yrs — and in AAA/AA, his K rates in the 7s aren’t that through the roof. Warren may not have Banuelos/Betances stuff but he’s 2 yrs younger than Brackman and has succeeded at AA & AAA. Warren’s AAA K rate is much lower than his AAA rate so he’s no Ban/Betan, but ask this: in a trade, would more teams want Brackman or Warren? I’m pretty sure the answer is Warren.
Sorry, I’m an idiot — I missed that Warren was high on the list. Including Brackman still is ridiculous; a 25 YO with that crazy a walk rate, and not that stellar a K rate at either AA or AAA, is no prospect at all. It’s a bummer because I was excited about him years ago.
His upside is matched by only few in the organization. His age doesn’t mean a whole lot. He was always going to be a project and it was going to take him longer to get his mechanics under control. He seems to be doing a better job lately with some minor adjustments. With that in mind given his 40-man roster spot I would not be surprised to see him pitch in the majors this year. It’ll probably be garbage time, but they’ll get him some work and he’ll be a candidate for the bullpen in 2012. Also let’s not forget that he had things under control 2010 and looked to be going in the right direction. Something clearly went awry this year, but its not like he hasn’t shown us anything yet. Its not a matter of being overmatched for the level he just wasn’t throwing the way he is capable of.
I thought Jake Cave would have made the list
1-5 practically write themselves. Very surprised to see Williams already this high. Where would Gumbs fall?
Hector Noesi, RHRP, MLB – technically still a prospect, but that 50 IP cutoff isn’t far away (he’s at 42.2 IP) … I really wish he was starting in AAA
Have we pigeonholed Noesi as a reliever already?
For shame if he is. Didn’t most people think he had a higher ceiling than Nova before the season?
Yes, I am still clinging on a little bit since Noesi has been given what seems zero shot to pitch in the last two months, but if Nova’s slider is for real it will be time to reconsider. However, if Nova wants to add some awesome control and make me eat more crow for saying he is 4/5 starter and become a two I say bring me a spoon.
Maybe I’m on the other spectrum of this whole debate, but knowing what his ceiling was before the season started, if a majic fairy came to me and said Hector Noesi would be the Yankees new Al Aceves you know what…I’d take the 10 out of 10 times.
**Magic
Not at all. Tons and tons of young starters begin their careers in the pen.
Oh, I’m not saying they can’t. On the thing he was listed as a reliever, I was wondering if there was a decision that the Yankees made regarding his status that I am unaware of. I’m kinda wondering why he hasn’t been given a start yet this year, the rotation was a bit shaky early in the season before Bartolo assumed control, but Colon’s been kinda sketchy lately. It is his first time pitching in August since he won the CYA, I guess I figured that they’d give Noesi a chance to start in Colon’s turn to give the big guy some time off.
…stuck in Triple-A because the Yankees are unwilling to put the best team on the field.
Well put.
Interesting, and pretty different from my own list I posted on minorleagueball.com yesterday: http://www.minorleagueball.com.....-prospects
Seems like you value major league readiness more than I do once you get to the second and third tier prospects.
Surprised that Heredia, Turley, Gumbs, and Almonte didn’t make the list.
Also, surprised you have Romine over Sanchez. Ramon Flores seems too high, given the lack of power shown so far. But interesting to see the differences in perspective on Yankees prospects.
I’d consider likeliness of being an effective MLB player at this point to be the more important indicator than tools. I understand there has to be a balance (therefore, Mason Williams at #6), but, yes, because of that, I would consider Romine the better prospect right now.
I agree with your comment that he will catch in the majors. I don’t know what people are looking at. He is not a bad catcher at all.
Heredia making the top 30 I can agree with.
Heredia making the top 5, over guys like Romine, Murphy, and Warren… that’s ridonkulous.
“Ramon Flores seems too high, given the lack of power shown so far.”
His SLG in rookie ball at 18, 6 months younger than Bichette, was pretty similar to Bichette’s this season… and .400 SLG for a 19 year old in Charleston isn’t that bad. His overall offensive performance at that level is similar to Murphy and Slade this season, though they are one and two years older than Flores, respectively:
Flores: .346 wOBA
Murphy: .356 wOBA
Heathcott: .336 wOBA
Flores is hurt by playing a corner spot, but #35 still seems ridiculously bullish on a talented young hitter to me.
“stuck in Triple-A because the Yankees are unwilling to put the best team on the field”
Or because they want him to develop defensively because they believe he can play one of the most valuable defensive positions…
Or because there’s not much chance he’d come up and be a better hitter right now than Andruw Jones, and he may or may not be a better MLB hitter in his first taste of the bigs at 21 than even Martin and Cervelli…
Either way.
It was a brilliantly provocative comment by Mike, generating over 70 responses. Without that in there, it would have been 12 responses.
Provocative? Sure… Acting like it’s a certainty conveys the impression that one is ignorant to the marginal best case impact Montero could potentially have, the fact that he might not improve the team at all, and the reasons he is still in AAA to develop at one of the game’s most demanding positions.
or both!!
Wrong Jose – Quintana should be on the list – not Ramirez. Quintana is 9-2, 2.67 era in Hi-A. Ramirez was 0-5, 8.14 era in Hi-A before being demoted to Charleston where he is 5-7 with a 4.90 era. Ramirez does have the higher upside, but he’s got to start putting it together next season.
and even Jairo Heredia has been better than Jose Aroldys replacement Ramirez
and for the love of God why isnt Yeicock Calderon number 2 on this list, that guy is a legend, he needs to be hyped and brought up to the big leagues asap
I would like to see the Yankees try to sign Yadier Molina if the Cardinals don’t pick up his option.
Very true and great point. The Yankee organization lacks a solid major league catcher on the parent team We are also extremely thin in minor league catching prospects from the Triple A all the way down through the low minors. None of them have a chance in hell of seeing the major leagues. Thank your for your contribution and I am looking forward to see what else you have to say in the future.
Is there any chance of that?? $7M option with $750k buyout? 5th best catcher in baseball by fWAR.
Sorry, 7th.
I agree 100% on Montero, Mike. Management has no clue how to develop these pitchers and refuses to put the best players on the MLB club.
It’s because management is secretly evil and wants the Yankees to lose.
Brian Cashman is an anagram for “Larry Lucchino’s sleeper-cell double-agent”. Go ahead, do the math, it checks out.
Those 5 titles NYY has won in the past 15 years were just to throw the scent off. Cashman’s been planning a massive takedown.
Manchurian Candidate, baby.
How in the world did they win those 27 championships?
… stuck in Triple-A because the Yankees are unwilling to put the best team on the field
#shitstarting
I expected Angelo Gumbs to be ranked around Culver, or at least on the back end of the list. Up the middle talent that could project to be a five tool player. C’est la vie
I wonder if Mason Williams’s amazing shine, combined with Culver’s amazing non-suckitude has blinded people to how solid Gumbs has been. He’s a victim of his teammates’ success.
Yeah I’d agree. Though, in honesty, I didn’t expect Axisa to favor Culver on the list over Gumbs based on the fact that Cito has exceeded expectations this year with mediocre play.
“stuck in Triple-A because the Yankees are unwilling to put the best team on the field”
AMEN AMEN AMEN
Because it’s definitely not just an unfortunate outcome that occurs when mitigating difficult circumstances.
No, ADam’s right. The Yankees have a strict “no putting the best team on the field” policy to go with their “no Braves pitchers” policy.
If only Jesus were up AND we’d traded for a true #2 like Ubaldo Jimenez AND we’d sent Phil Hughes back to AAA where he belongs.
Ubaldo is really killing it in Cleveland. The only way Ubaldo is a legit #2 is if he has a time machine or an infusion of stem cells this off-season.
The Cleveland numbers look like bad luck in a small sample: high HR/9, low LOB%… He’s getting 9.5 K/9 and sports a 3.61 xFIP in Cleveland. Pretty likely he’s looks like a #2 for the rest of the season.
My friends who are Indians fans say he looks awful, missing his spots, leaving pitches up in the zone, etc. etc. That may just be confirmation bias, though.
I don’t think the Yanks wanted to give up their top 5 farm system prospects for a pitcher whose best 2 pitches (FB, CH) have been severely hampered by his 3 mph drop in velocity. Mediocre control works a lot better with 96 than 93. Ubaldo is getting somewhat unlucky but his high HR/9 may not be a fluke since he is sporting a career high LD% and career low SwSTr%.
Agreed. The Yankees offense has woefully underperformed this year, and there can be no excuses if the Jesus-less Yankees lose the division.
I’m not sure if that’s sarcasm, and have a meeting now, so I’ll never know for sure.
I haven’t checked, but I’m pretty sure the Yankees are dead last in offense and 50 games below .500.
No love for Isaias Tejeda?
No Melvin?
Just my 2 interpretation – but having Montero in AAA is not having the best team on the field, but having Noesi on the big league squad as a role player (which is where Montero will be with Martin playing most games at C, Jones and Chavez at DH) is a waste.
It’s really really close to being inconsistent.
That too.
Having Noesi up here as the last man in the bullpen is “the best team on the field”, but having someone like Carlyle/Laffey/etc. take that two innings per three weeks that the last man in the pen takes so Noesi can keep working on his craft in Scranton makes sense developmentally.
It’s not about having the best 25 men in the organization on the active roster at all times, it’s about maintaining a player acquisition and development strategy to ensure the organization always has enough good players at enough various positions and roles to always field a good 25 man roster.
The 25 man roster with Cervelli at backup catcher, Posada/Jones at DH, Chavez at 3B/1B/DH/PH and Montero in the minors is still a very, very good 25 man roster. Inflexibly demanding that Montero be promoted and take one of those men’s jobs is not necessarily the best thing for the Yankees.
Having the best 25 men on the active roster at all times is not and should not be an organizational mandate. You have to balance top-level roster permutation with playing time and prospect development.
Re Montero, it is just a need for immediate gratification by the fans.
Almost traded for Hallady and Lee = sure superstar, never mind that it might take years.
The scouting reports = fans drooling. Recent Baseball America reports: “80 hitter with 80 power” “Veteran scout says he might be the best hitter in many years” “70 hitter” “70 power” “Yankee official compares him to Robinson Cano”.
All of this causes the need for immediate gratification, which might not fit what is best for Montero or the Yankees.
No, there’s a slight difference. Those of us who want Montero up in the bigs want him to play four to five times a week. Pretty damn close to everyday, we are making the assumption that Girardi will find ways to get him in the lineup as a back up catcher and DH. My issue with Noesi not being in AAA is that this team won’t even use him. If they’d use Noesi twice a week or so out of the pen instead of the way they do now, I’d be completely fine with him at the big club. Girardi has made it clear than he’s not going to use Noesi all that much, so there’s no point in having him at the big club. If they’d use Montero the same way as they’d use Noesi I wouldn’t want him at the big league club.
Those of us who want Montero up in the bigs want him to play four to five times a week.
Those of us who say it’s okay that Montero isn’t up in the bigs yet say that because we know it’s doubtful he actually would play four to five times a week.
If they’d use Montero the same way as they’d use Noesi I wouldn’t want him at the big league club.
That makes two of us. Three of us when you include Brian Cashman.
Those of us who say it’s okay that Montero isn’t up in the bigs yet say that because we know it’s doubtful he actually would play four to five times a week.
I disagree that’s doubtful, obviously. I have a feeling he’ll mash once he’s presented with the challenge of the major leagues. He’ll get one or two starts a week at catcher, two or three at DH, plenty of playing time for Montero. He’ll also work under Kevin Long’s tutelage every day. Butch Wynegar is no slouch, but he’s no Kevin Long either. I feel that simply being on the ML roster will be beneficial to him and he won’t have that “just got to the bigs” feeling when he starts full time next season.
I have seen him a few times, and I am certain that he can catch.
Where he would have huge roster value would be if he could replace Cervelli and the DH’s all at once.
That said, he is a 21 year old catcher. The need for him on a team that will win 100 games is not desperate. As Ted and others have said, this could very well be case of the team looking at his development and merely thinking that he is a year or so away, when he would still arrive in the major leagues as an extremely young catcher.
Well then you’re a better scout than anyone in the scouting press. I’d try to get Keith Law’s job when he leaves ESPN in 2012.
Love the jump Mason Williams made.
I’d put Almonte ahead of Mesa at this point. Mesa’s best season was as 23-year-old in A ball. At 24, he’s having problems at AA, while Almonte is holding his own and is two years younger. I know there’s the overall tools scouts look at, but I think if a team came to the Yankees in a trade and they wanted either Mesa or Almonte, they Yankees would move Mesa.
As for Bichette, I’ll be interested to see how he does outside of GCL. GCL stats are meaningless, especially since most of the truly elite prospects don’t even sign until later and may never play in the GCL, so Bichette is destroying the equivalent of enhanced high school pitchers or college freshman. Doing poorly against this level could be a negative; I’m not sure, however, doing well means too much yet. That said, I am excited to see him doing so well and be interested to see him at SI next year, which is where I assume he’ll be ticketed to play.
4 of the top 5 prospects have come from the international free agents not from the MLB draft.Lets get international guys and go from there.
I wonder who cares about the draft? None of them are gonna be great just good.What we get from this international draft is important.
Oh, I don’t know. Phil Hughes, our 18-game winner last year, key member of the 2009 pen, and once again key member of the 2011 rotation came through the draft. Joba never lived up to his full potential, but has been a major positive. Dave Robertson is the shut-down 8th inning guy. Our LFer is one of the ten most productive players in the AL, and he came through the draft. We were able to trade for our 40-HR CFer and MVP candidate by drafting Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson. Yeah, I think we should care about the Rule Four Draft.
That’s factually incorrect.
Dellin Betances and Austin Romine are in the top 5… It’s 3/5. If it was 2/5 IFA, we could ask the same question about why there aren’t more IFAs…
You also neglect to notice that 6 out of the top 10 were drafted and 11 out of the top 15.
Wow Mason Williams at number 6, what are the chances he goes straight to AA or AAA next year?
Why didn’t Mike Montgomery make the list?
I thought the same. He’s rocketing thru the system and blowing everyone away — but I think his name is Mark.
I would like to see Vidal Nuno get some love before any of the kids who haven’t played 10 games just yet.
“stuck in Triple-A because the Yankees are unwilling to put the best team on the field”
I know this has already been beaten to death above — but I’ll add my 2 cents. He’s having a worse year than last year at the same level — extra base hits are way down — and strikeout pace is up. God’s gift to hitting is doing fine for his age at AAA — but a batting average in the 280s across 2 years at the same level, along with 15-20 hr power — with whispers of him being bored and dogging it at times doesn’t scream “Call me up! I’m ready!” Believe me, if he had been hitting 320 with 20 dingers by July some time, he would’ve been called up back then.
I’m glad they left him down there. So sorry to bore you, Jesus — I know you need a challenge. Hit 330 with pop then the debate will be over. Although I do agree that it has affected Romine’s development — but that happens at times. You don’t promote Montero before he deserves it just to clear a space for Romine. Earn your call up, Montero — you haven’t yet.
Suggestion Mike. Do a variation of this article from the standpoint of prospect depth at each position. For example. Is Romine useless to the Yankees inasmuch as he is sandwiched between Montero and Sanchez. Montero may be blocked by Russell Martin, but Sanchez may be ready as Martin begins to break down.