Jan
09
Fan Confidence Poll: January 9th, 2012
By2011 Record: 97-65 (855 RS, 657 RA, 102-60 pythag. record), won AL East, lost to Tigers in ALDS
Top stories from last week:
- It’s not official yet, but Jorge Posada will reportedly announce his retirement within the next two weeks. Posada apparently instructed his agents to not make calls on his behalf this winter as he mulled over his future.
- The Yankees and Hiroyuki Nakajima did not come to a contract agreement during the 30-day negotiating window, with role and years being the major sticking points. We also found out that they bid just $15M for Yu Darvish.
- Rafael Soriano may be costing the Yankees a shot at signing Edwin Jackson. The Yanks didn’t inquire on left-handed reliever Darren Oliver before he signed with the Blue Jays.
- Mariano Rivera expected to be ready for Spring Training and is doing well after having surgery on his vocal cords.
- The Yankees signed righty Adam Miller and outfielder Cole Garner to minor league contracts. They also released 14 low-level minor leaguers.
- It’s unlikely there will be a NHL Winter Classic in Yankee Stadium until 2016.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
- 10 (very confident)
- 9
- 8
- 7
- 6
- 5
- 4
- 3
- 2
- 1 (no confidence)
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I voted an 8 because to get a 10 you have to be the perfect, flawless team. A 9 means you are almost perfect which we are not. Thus an 8, good enough to win the division and maybe the pennant.
8, which is the lower end of my usual 8-9 range and simply due to the increased question marks with the rotation going into 2012. I am sill a fan of the team with the biggest set of resources in sports, which means I should remain confident.
50 points deducted, of course, for being mean to Nakajima, and 1000 points deducted for being stingy in talking about keeping the payrll under $189 million three years frm now.
I picked zero because he haven’t signed Roy Oswalt yet.
I’m at an 8 because as the smoke from the 2011-12 off-season clears the Yanks have held on to the best of their young talent while remaining, to this point at least on paper, the best team in the AL East. Stay the course and let the talent develop. Transitioning from the old core to a new one while staying competitive and holding down costs is as tough and tricky as it gets for management but so far so good.
This is very accurate and very well stated. I have them winning in the low 90′s, making the playoffs, while sitting with a top 5 farm system.
Yankee fans think it is some kind of a disastrous outlook if they don’t look like a 100 win team on paper. That is ridiculous. This is a very good team.
I am at 8.
Not confident at all – 4. This team feels like 2008 where they’re betting on a bunch of maybe’s, has-been’s, and perhaps rookies in the rotation and where the the offense is getting old fast. I’m not so sure Gardner has the pixie dust any more and Cano and Granderson can’t carry the lineup by themselves. The only hope is that Montero comes up big, but he shouldn’t be depended on for that.
2008 = year before they won a championship. I’ll take that.
I would too. If that’s what they’re planning with the pitching, it may just work. They’ll still need to transition the offense with nothing in the pipeline or free agency to upgrade.
There’s this one Montero kid in the pipeline who is supposed to be a decent hitter…
Who?
…the the offense is getting old fast.
Oh good, it’s that time of year again.
I’m not sure I follow you. Do you expect all of Jeter, A-Rod, Teixeira, and even Martin to improve on their 2010? Do you expect Granderson and Cano and Gardner and even Swisher to maintain their 2010 production? That leaves Montero at DH and who else?
I’m an idiot. 2011 was last year.
I think most people expect A-Rod to improve over 2011, Teix, understanding his issues and working on them should improve as well. Montero at DH for the full season should be a major upgrade over the Posada/others platoon used last year. Cano will most likely stay about the same, Swisher is in a contract year and has been very consistent so we should expect the same from him. Gardner may improve slightly, getting closer to his 2010 stats and I don’t expect Martin to regress and he may in fact, better his performance. I would expect a slight regression from Granderson and Jeter. Overall, their offense should be pretty close to last year, which leaves the pitching. I’m hopefull that both AJ and Hughes have better seasons than last year and Nova comes close to what he did. CC will be CC once again. I can see them dropping off to ~92 – 94 wins, but that should still win the division.
This reads to me like the best case scenario. Not sure why you expect A-Rod, Martin, and Gardner to improve. Teixeira, maybe, but then he’s had two of the same seasons in a row. It took him that long to recognize and begin to address the problem?
Martin will be 29 years old next season; Gardner, 28; Cano, 29; Granderson, 31; Tex, 32… calling guys in their theoretical peak years “old” is odd. A-Rod and especially Jeter are legitimately old. The rest of the team is not. They’re also got a 4th OF who has been absolute death to LHP the last two seasons. And the pipeline is not empty… Romine is respectable offensively for a C (so is Cervelli for that matter), CoJo and David Adams could provide one or two serviceable utilitymen alongside Eduardo Nunez who is at an age where he should improve himself. There are also these crazy trade things they came up with where you can trade prospects to veteran players when needs emerge.
I agree with all of this. I’m a bit skittish about the rotation, but I’m not concerned about the offense at all.
We’ve heard this for about six years in a row now, and it hasn’t happened yet. You’ll reply “but this is the year it’ll happen!” and it’ll be about the sixth years in a row that’s happened as well.
Even if A-Rod, Tex, Cano, Granderson, Jeter, and Swisher decline some, it’s still a top five offense. I don’t see why you’d expect big drop-offs from Cano and Swisher, in fact Swisher probably stands to improve after his early season power outage. Granderson probably won’t hit 41 HR again, but I doubt he’ll turn into Austin Jackson overnight.
It happened in 2008…
Their corner outfielders and DH were a combined 102 years old in 2008. Next year they’ll be 81. Seven years younger on average.
Well, you did just say it didn’t happen. And the converse, their infield? I suppose Texeira > Jeter and A-Rod >> A-Rod. Plus, Teixeira would dream to have a year like Giambi had in 2008, at this point.
The other problem is what really killed them in 2008 – injuries. Andruw Jones can’t play the infield and none of Chavez, Nunez, or Pena should be playing with any frequency.
You need to look at this: http://www.fangraphs.com/leade.....;sort=15,d
The offense is so awesome that even if every player regresses a bit, they won’t even as fall to league average. You need to take a step back and look at us relative to other teams.
Pretty funny that more and more people are gravitating towards ’7′ when nothing’s changed to make a 97 win team worse and a few things that will make them better. Our AAA starters have more experience, we’ll have a full year of Jesus and Joba will be back in a very deep pen.
Chill out everybody, we don’t need the #2 starter until the playoffs…
Yeah. That Colon guy was a scrub. Replacing his production is sure to be easy.
Colon was great in the first half and passable in the second half. Taking the season as a whole, I don’t think it would be that difficult to replace his production. The Yankees were 14-12 in his starts. For comparison, they were 16-16 in AJs starts. I’m confident that Noesi could come close to matching that performance.
I think we’ll find those Colon innings somewhere between Noesi and Hughes. Right now, who would you pick as a better team in the AL?
True that.
I’m at an 8. If they signed a top flight starter for AJ’s spot I would be a 9, but maybe not. That would likely involve getting rid of one or more of our top flight prospect starters.
Is it just a coincidence that Mike revealed he usually votes a 7 a couple of days ago? Monkey see, monkey do.
Bingo.
7.
Dwelling on what to expect from AJ and Phil Hughes can take you to a dark place if you spend too much time thinking it. Those two major question marks keep me from going any higher than a 7. Performance questions for Nova and Freddy are less bothersome, and the presence of Noesi, Phelps, and Warren provides decent depth. With Noesi especially , the buzz is growing and we may actually have someone who could displace Hughes.
The Hughes scouting report from yesterday… Just disappointing stuff.
Ocho… Need to sign Chavy to solidify the bench he is the best fit, far and away and wait for the price to come down on Oswalt and get him signed and the rest should fix itself
current:8
+Kuroda:9
+Oswalt:8
+Jackson 3year deal:7
+jackson 4+ year deal:5
Still 6.
I was 7 before their stated goal of slashing payroll. I fully expected to rise up to 7 again if they got an upgrade in the rotation, unfortunately it looks like that won’t happen. If they got a pitcher and scrapped the Scrooge McDuck plan, I would be at 8.
The AAA pitchers don’t fill me with confidence the way they do for others. People are assuming some of those guys are ready to step in and be league average pitchers. I highly doubt that.
Jeter and Arod…blah blah blah…historical data indicates steep declines in late 30s…blah blah blah…long term unmovable contracts…blah blah blah.