Jan
02
Fan Confidence Poll: January 2nd, 2012
By2011 Record: 97-65 (855 RS, 657 RA, 102-60 pythag. record), won AL East, lost to Tigers in ALDS
Top stories from last week:
- Andruw Jones will be back in 2012, agreeing to a one-year contract worth $2M with another $1.4M available in incentives. The Yankees also signed Hideki Okajima to a minor league deal, but they’re still far apart in contract talks with Hiroyuki Nakajima.
- Alex Rodriguez underwent an experimental procedure on his right knee and left shoulder in Germany with blessings from the team and the commissioner’s office. Brian Cashman said it was more about “maintaining health going forward” than rehabbing past injuries.
- Carlos Beltran came to the Yankees and was willing to sign for two years and $26M at the last minute, but they declined and he took the same contract from the Cardinals. The Cubs are prioritizing young pitching in a Matt Garza trade. Despite reports to the contrary, the Yankees do have money to make moves according to Randy Levine.
- The Yankees will apparently wear 1912 throwback jerseys on April 20th to help celebrate the 100th anniversary of Fenway Park’s opening.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
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I find the discipline they’re showing to be refreshing and I remain confident that if the right move is out there, Cashman will make it.
I feel the same way. So I am at 9 again.
I agree that the discipline is a very good sign. I’m at an 8. On the flip side, it is a negative that there hasn’t been a good move out there to make to get another stud starting pitcher. Maybe Hamels will be the guy next off season. Hopefully.
Best move may prove to be holing onto the prospects.
Best move may also be trading some of them for a front end starter too.
Cepedes will bump my pick from an 8 to a 9! It’s not even so much that I think he’ll be great, but because it’d be exciting to have a new young outfielder.
Please don’t stop at Cespedes, add Jorge Soler and Armando Rivero to your wishlist.
I would love signing Soler as well. Everything I’ve heard about Rivero seems like a BP arm. I wouldn’t mind that at all, but not as exciting as the other two in my mind.
Shortening the game to 4 innings!!!
I read the A’s are interested in soler, he can’t be that expensive.
I am at 8 because we are still not where we should be. I will explain. It seems to me that we are unlikely to find the pitcher we are looking for and at the right price. Thus, I repeat my sentiment that Boone Logan be stretched out during ST and turned into a starter. We coul replace him with one of the LOOGYs that we signed in the offseason. If that does not work, we have Noesi to step in at any moment. Or the latter can replace any one in the rotation that fails or is injured.
not sure if you’re serious about this but why do you want to make Logan a starter when we have a bunch of talented starters in AAA? Last time Logan started a game was in 2004 in the rookie league and Logan simply hasn’t the secondary pitches to be a decent starter.
barely has the primary pitches to be a passable LOOGY.
There are plenty of guys in our farm I’d put in the rotation over a Boone Logan experiment.
Not being confrontational at all, curious why you think he would make a good starter?
It’s that he is a lefty,simply as that. We need another lefty in the rotation. He throws hard enough and has fir control. Furthermore, lefties have been successful for the most part in YS. Of course, I’d prefer ManBan but he is not ready just yet.
I don’t even want to compare Logan with lefties of the past, it’s that when we won it all we had a pair of good lefties in the rotation: Lopat,Ford, Byrne in the 50s, Guidry, Gullet in the 70s, Pettitte and Key and later Pettitte an Wells in the 90s. The only time in recent memory we won it all without two lefties in the rotation was 2009. We had only CC as you know.
Andy P. was still around in 2009
Sorry, I forgot he came back. I also did not mention the 60s because I was out of the country for mos of the decade and have no memories of it.
I have my own….personal reasons for not remembering the 60′s!
I thought you never inhaled.
I think you are correct that the Yanks could use another lefty SP but I don’t think Boone is the answer. Plenty aren’t even sure he is the answer as LOOGY. I’m ok with him as LOOGY.
I’m a lefty that will get shellacked in the rotation too, sign me!
LOL. Insane. The idea won’t even be considered.
just my opinion. I know it is very unlikely to be considered.
7, we need more pitching
I’m at 7. I was reading on another Yankees blog that Banuelos and Betances project to be #3 starters. So why hold on to them and pass up a possible ace?
They are available for a “possible ace” the debate is over whether they should be available for a #2-3 type.
I’d consider Latos an ace. Maybe not Gonzalez or Danks but Latos definitely has the makings of an ace.
Im not high on Latos “makings of an ace” type pitcher. Too Kevin brown Jeff weaver like.
Based on what?
Mostly hunch, willing to go out on a limb knowing I could be wrong. He has petco in his favor and some makeup issues. Generally speaking I’m not high on major leaguers who could or should be better based on stuff or peripherals.
Which only means I don’t like him as an ace-type or worth trading Montero.
So you’re guessing then.
Latos has no significant home/road split in his career, so the point about Petco doesn’t apply to him like it does most pitchers:
http://www.baseball-reference......;t=p#hmvis
The makeup concerns are real, I’ll give you that, but his career ERA and his peripherals are almost identical. He’s been just as good as expected, no better or worse.
Guessing or projecting, nobody knows for sure. I think you said it, he’s as good as expected, I don’t expect him to improve. AL East or a bad mood could be enough to start a decline
Latos is on a Weaver scale. Those who like him compare him to Jared those who don’t see Jeff.
instead of believing the hype, go take a look at what other people projected other starters on our team… namely Cano, Gardner & Nova. and then while you’re on that page go see where the ‘world’ projected Tabata and Austin Jackson.
so nerds with MacBooks are fun and all, but take a step back and lets get some perspective.
I hardly think you can evaluate Nova or Jackson yet. One good, or bad season at the start of a career really doesn’t mean a whole lot. I do not expect Nova to have a repeat of last year, just as I didn’t think Hughes would have a season like 2010 last year.
Cano was an international free agent signing and while Gardner has been good, I wouldn’t consider him to be an elite left or center fielder.
At 5.1 Gardner was worth as much fWAR as Pujols last year, and was worth 6.1 in 2010.
I’m going to go with calling him elite.
What the hell is Cashman doing? He has a chance to get Beltran and he chooses Andruw Jones intead? With Beltran we could have shipped Swisher out of town so he can’t hurt us in the playoffs anymore. Garza would be a tremendous addition but I have no confidence in the front office to get the trade done. Nolan Ryan will probably just swoop in and best Cashman yet again.
And then when Beltran’s knee goes out we can replace him in left with Justin Maxwell! That’d be awesome!
Really? What crack did you smoke on New Years?
There was never a choice of Jones over Beltran. Jones is a 4th OF and Beltran would have wanted to start. Signing Beltran made no sense unless you can flip Swisher for something useful in return. Since there was little to no evidence this was occurring, why would they take that risk. Also, Beltran is 34 (turning 35 this season) and missed more than 50% of the 2009 and 2010 seasons with injuries. He does well for 140 games in 2011 and suddenly he is your Jesus. Say what you want about Swisher in the postseason (that argument is old and washed up), but Swisher has been consistent from year to year now and doesn’t get hurt. That’s a lot to say these days.
For Garza, if the trade request isn’t ridiculous, I think it can get done. Sure, any team and “swoop in” and overpay, but Garza isn’t an improvement enough to dump half the farm on. IMO, they’ll trade anything outside of Montero and Banuelos for him.
Please, just stop whining. It sounds so pathetic and isn’t reflective of a Yankee fan.
The linked report said that Beltran was willing to sign with the Yankees, without mentioning that that was conditional on starting (in which case the Yankees would have had to trade a starting OF). So it seems that the Yankees indeed chose Jones over Beltran.
Sarcasm right?
One can only hope, unless RAB picked up some new geniuses this year.
Haha, you never know. In this thread alone you’ve got one guy that wants to move Logan to the rotation and another that’s upset about not bringing in Beltran.
No sarcasm. Heyman’s full tweet was “hear beltran offered to go to #yankees for the deal he got w/ cards ($26M, 2 yrs). but like 7 yrs ago, they declined.”
To me that sounds like he was willing to sign without playing time guarantees while the post I replied to said “Beltran would have wanted to start”. And to me that means the Yankees chose Jones over Beltran.
But if I missed something, feel free to enlighten me.
2/26 for a 4OF is awful steep when considering the need to put that money towards a pitcher if one comes along… and $13M per season is without a doubt ‘starter money’
same ppl will bitch if someone comes availible for the rotation and the Yankees do not pull the trigger because Cashman was stupid enough to spend $13M on a 4OF.
The grass is always greener on the other side, man.
I’ve come to the conclusion that some people just like to see change and hope for better. He’s probably the same person arguing to trade Tex and sign Fielder. Next year, it will be trade CC and sign Hammels.
You’re a complete idiot.
Name-calling always shows superior intellect.
On the contrary, you’re ever-so-informative posts do?
7. It seems that priority #1 is shifting from winning on the field to making money. That does not bode well for the future.
“Winning on the field” and “making money” are not mutually exclusive.
If the Steinbrenners want to cut payroll by 10% for one year, so they can save $60M and put the Yankees in a stronger position going forward, then I have zero problem with that.
so you do not care if they lose this year.
They won’t lose this year because they lack one pitcher.
right, they’ll lose because they didnt sign Beltran for teh bench!!!11!
That’s a bold statement.
Consider the following thought experiment:
Take the best pitcher for 2012 (in your opinion) who was available.
Take the worst pitcher for 2012 (in your opinion) who is projected for the Yankees’ rotation.
Calculate the expected difference in wins (real wins, not pitcher wins).
Are you sure they won’t lose a playoff spot by a margin that is lower than (or equal to) this number?
Using the Fan Projections at FanGraphs…
C.J. Wilson in 2012: 4.2 WAR
A.J. Burnett in 2012: 1.3 WAR
Phil Hughes in 2012: 1.9 WAR
Freddy Garcia in 2012 = 1.0 WAR
4.2 – 1.0 = 3.2 wins
Am I confident the Yankees won’t “lose” a playoff spot by three games next year? Yes, I am. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen of course, but I doubt it will since no one in the division has improved.
Using the numbers from rlyw, the Yankees miss the playoffs 24% of 100,000 simulated seasons. I suspect quite a lot of these seasons they finish within 3 games of the playoffs.
So there’s less than a 1-in-4 chance they’ll miss the playoffs three or fewer games? I’ll gladly take those odds.
So basically you are glad to (additionally) miss the playoffs every five years for $10M-$25M extra annual profit for the Steinbrenners?
That’s not what that means at all.
You gladly take “a 1-in-4 chance they’ll miss the playoffs” because they signed Garcia instead of Wilson.
You do not advocate or argue for them to spend this money for something that will yield more success on the field.
Than what else does your position mean?
they lack more than one arm…………..
That is why I expect the Yankees to be a large payroll team going forward, but the days of really outspending the other teams seem to be over.
The changes from the new CBA (second WC team, draft changes) leave the MLB payroll as the only way for the Yankees to truly dominate like they did in the last decade. And they do not seem to be willing to use this opportunity, therefrore I have downgraded my confidence ratin quite a bit from 9 to 7 and I am leaning towards a further downgrade to 6.
(My rating is the answer to the question “How many playoff appearences do I expect for the next decade?”)
George is dead. I would say his sons have been pretty good and could have been a lot worse. They will never be George Steinbrenner, but they seem to be pretty smart about running the team, although slightly more thrifty.
A true disaster would have been if they cleaned out our farm system for Ubaldo and/or another overpriced starter, leaving our future in doubt, especially with the cba curtailing our ability to get young talent. All in all, the Steinbrenner kids played things pretty well the past couple of years.
god rest his soul, but a true disaster for any son is to not learn from his fathers mistakes.
Hal & Hank are relying heavily on their ‘Baseball People’ to guide them. George wasn’t the type.
I doubt that their ‘Baseball People’ said “Freddy Garcia is the best pitcher available for the rotation!”
So ownership forced the signing?
I think their ‘Money People’ guided them by saying something like “Wilson is the better pitcher but we will make more profit by signing Garcia.”
And yes, I think ownership in one way or other (like giving him a budget) made Cashman sign a worse but cheaper starter.
I’m pretty sure it went something like this:
We already extended one of the 5 best pitchers in baseball to keep everything together. We’ve got huge contracts to sign in a couple years in Cano and Granderson, who just happen to be our two best offensive players. If payroll is over $189 million in 2014, we get hit hard by the luxury tax. If we are under $189MM just for that year, the tax is more than halved. We can’t sign anyone to overpriced contracts or else Cano and Granderson’s contracts will push us well over $200 MM, and a 50% tax on $210 MM is a hell of a lot worse than 15% on $189 MM.
But George wasn’t smart.
If this is what’s happening, it’s every bit as serious as you imply. It would be a throwback to the CBS era. It would be reminiscent of what the Giants used to do when Col. Jake upstaged them by plowing dough back into the team. Etc.
However, it’s still too soon to know whether this is what is happening. We need to watch for a year, see what moves, of a serious nature, the Yanks might make–or choose not to make–during the 2011 season. And watch to see what moves they’ve made–or not made–during the off-season, this time next year.
If the pitching crumbles and the yanks fail to make the playoffs because of Boston Tampa Texas angels, it will NOT be Girardi’s fault!
#BlameJavy
amen!!!!!
I dropped from 8 to 7 last poll over Yu. Wanted Yu. Needed Yu. Deep down I knew, there ain’t know way we were ever going to get Yu, but I guess I was holding out hope and like they say…2 outta 3 ain’t bad. Anyway, Alex getting this procedure will bump me up fractionally to a 7.25. I believe he will indeed maintain strong offensive production, and stay on the field, longer than most (but not to justify the ridiculous contract). Plus I’m in the same camp as those who believe 2012 may offer some near-in challenges but the patience being displayed and the continued stocking and development happening on the farm bodes well for the team in 2013 and beyond – unless the Mayans were right and 2012 is the last Baseball season.
Is Alex’s procedure similar to what Bartolo had done ?
similar theory (i have read), but Bartolo used stem cells and A Rod is getting platelets. and Platelets are OKd by the league, stem cells are still in question.
The Mayan’s did not now about baseball or else they would have finsihed their calender..
At first I was encouraged by this news, but then my temperamental pessimism (“The worst is always possible”) took over and made me wonder whether, in the course of his off-season workouts, Alex was feeling some pain in shoulder or knee.
I hear you. At his age, pain is the new normal when you’re a professional athlete.
I’m right at the good ole number 8 spot on the Confidence scale like I’ve been for really a long time now.
Confidence in the yanks is relative to the confidence of Boston Tampa Texas and angels.
I am at 8 for this year.
Five playoff spots. Six contenders: Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Rangers, Angels, Tigers.
Given the above, why would the Yankees give up prospects in any deal that is not favorable?
Because there are only four playoff spots.
Not if they implement the 2nd Wild Card this year, as they’re still mulling over.
But then each wild card will represent only half a playoff spot unless you consider the loser of the wild card game a real playoff participant.