Mailbag & Poll: Trading A Core Player
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(AP Photo/Wally Santana)
Daniel asks: With an eye on the 2014 budget, do you think the Yankees would consider trading a core player (Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson) for a haul of inexpensive, but talented players?
I’m sure they would consider it — it’s Brian Cashman‘s job to consider anything that could potentially improve the team — but it would really, really surprise me if they did something big like that. The Yankees usually aren’t sellers; only when they have an older, expensive player they don’t want or need anymore (A.J. Burnett, Gary Sheffield). I think they would sooner try to win with both guys the next two years and let one of them walk as a free agent for payroll reasons after 2013 than trade one of them after 2012 just to make sure they get some kind of return that fits into the future budget. The Yankees are still all about winning.
One thing to keep in mind about Cano and Granderson is that they are both scheduled to become free agents after 2013 (assuming their options are picked up next winter, which they will be) and won’t bring a huge return in a trade. The Mark Teixeira trade (from the Rangers to Braves) is the gold standard in situations like this, but that’s a once in a lifetime thing. Franchise-altering hauls like that are very rare, and if someone wanted to offer the Yankees a similar package for Granderson (I’m sure they’re going to re-sign Cano), then by all means explore the possibility. I just can’t see them hooking up with another contender (since that would be the kind of team looking to add that kind of player) for a trade of that magnitude.
Looking beyond Teixeira, other star-caliber position players traded one season prior to free agency in recent years includes Adrian Gonzalez, Dan Uggla, Jason Bay, and Matt Holliday. All four deals returned useful players (to varying degrees), but Carlos Gonzalez (from Athletics to Rockies for Holliday) is the only guy that qualifies as an above average big leaguer. There’s a lot of risk in making a trade like that, especially for a perennial contender like the Yankees. Keeping Granderson (and Cano) around and trying to win with him in 2013 makes more sense than hoping to luck into a Teixeira-type haul. Anyway, let’s poll…
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Both guys are guys we would want to sign if they were free agents, why would we trade them? I’d much rather just not add to the payroll and let upcoming free agents walk (i.e. Swisher, Soriano and Martin) then trade Cano or Granderson.
Not sure. I would consider dealing either. Granderson was great for the last year and a quarter but not before that. Cano is a 2b. They do not tend to age well. If we could get a haul, I would be open to either.
Well, the year prior to joining the Yankees he hit 30 HRs playing in a very large park, hence why he was projected to hit 35-40 HRs as a Yankee. His two prior years to that he had OPS+s of 135 and 123, including a season where he 38 doubles, 23 tripes and 23 HRs. His 2007 season was in every way as great as his 2011. Curtis Granderson didn’t just arrive as an impact major leaguer last year.
Beyond that, I’m with you in I’d trade either or both of them if the right mix of talent came back that allowed the Yankees to remain at the top. I think the problem, as Mike noted, is it’s very unlikely.
*triples*
Tripe is wretched, let along 23 tripes!
Granderson was not good before last season? Interesting, tell me more.
This post makes me sad as it’s another in an ever growing list of reminders that one of the two is likely gone sooner or later. Swish too. $189mm sucks.
That’s just not true. The Yanks may not be signing next year’s Albert Pujols, but they can retain almost their entire team if they work in some young players annually, especially in the rotation.
This. We’ll have to see what the players want, but I don’t think we’re foredoomed to lose any of those three. I think one of Martin/Swisher has to go, and I think that a LOT depends on what our pitching does this year. If Hughes is good to decent and Nova/Pineda don’t fall on their butts, then I think we can and will safely pass on Hamels without losing out too much. If one of the B’s develops into a solid starter (or one of Warren, Phelps, and Mitchell stand out) we can safely let Kuroda go and give his stop to a kid.
We can do it, but not if we go out and sign a bunch of big FAs.
You guys have to recheck your math. Barring ridiculously low home team discounts (probably so low the PA would cry foul) it ain’t possible to keep both let alone all three in 2014 and be under $189mm.
I voted with the minority but of course it is also contingent on accessibility to a cost controlled player that can come close to replacing the production in that same trade or in a separate one.
No one trades a cost controlled player for a near FA when they give near equal production. It’d make no sense at all. Even if its like, a 10-20% drop off, thats still a tough trade to justify.
Maybe Kenny Williams would do it, but I think we’ve more or less stripped his team of useful pieces.
That’s not really what I said and who said Grandy would be the only player included by the Yankees ?
“accessibility to a cost controlled player that can come close to replacing the production”
? That’s what I’m questioning.
And, sure, if you want to do a whole series of trades based around moving Grandy for prospects that’s an option. But each additional partner increases the complications exponentially.
Keeping Cano and Granderson is basically a requirement. That is the core of our offense and defense. And pretty huge fan favorites who are both electric and entertaining to watch play. We also traded Ian Kennedy, who turned into a Cy Young candidate, to get Granderson. Neither of them are going anywhere.
I agree with your conclusion bit I don’t think Kennedy factors in. They got 4 years of below market production from Granderson. If they sign him to a market rate FA contract, that is a separate decision.
Kennedy has nothing to do with it, especially since he was never going to be that for us.
As for the Grandy man….Its all about how many years he wants. He’s gonna be 33 at the end of 2013. So he’s not going to be in center too many more years when Brett waiting in the wings. What’s more, do we really want to give him 5 or 6 years and watch his decline phase? SOMEONE will if he plays at or near the level he did last year for the next two.
We’ve been bashing the Yanks for years for giving players big contracts on the wrong side of 30. Now you’re suggesting we do that with 2 more guys. I’m willing to do that with one of the two, but not both. 2Bs tend to drop off cliffs defensively, but Cano is both homegrown and a better natural hitter. I’ll take him and let Grandy walk unless he’s willing to take 3-4 (maximum) years. And why would he?
Considering Granderson’s up and down career I have to disagree. Especially when they have Gardner and a host of prospects to replace him in CF. Let’s see how the next couple of years go before declaring Granderson a must sign through his late 30s. (Trading him right now might actually turn out to be selling high.)
I think Cano can move to 3B, so I’m less worried about him given his consistent offense.
I would resign Cano and let Grandy walk. I think he production is real but I don’t know if he is going to age well. Would rather have Gardner in CF and Ziolo in LF if he is ready by that point and keeps producing.
Re-sign Cano as a FA, let Granderson, who will be 33, walk, and move Gardner to center.
I have a question…. Hal (unlike George) is budget conscious & wants to avoid paying luxury tax. If he keep’s Yankees payroll at $189M in 2014 & signs Granderson & Cano to big contracts, can he back load the contracts to 2015 & beyond?
I believe the Jerry Jone & the Cowboys did that back in the 90′s to keep under the salary cap. Im not sure how MLB calulates payroll & if you can backload salaries on contracts.
A-Rod contract killed us but with Mo & Jeter about to retire thats $30M+ right there.
I think the consensus here at RAB is that the payroll in calculated using the average annual salary. So messing around like that won’t have an effect.
The luxury tax takes the average annual salary the contract into account. Backloading or even deferring payments will not have any impact on the cap for luxury tax purposes.
I think Hal would sort of kind of like to not pay the luxury tax, or at least not a lot of luxury tax. That’s been his pattern over the previous years as the amount of luxury tax the Yankees have been paying keeps getting lower. The Yankees were accomplishing this by pretty much holding their overall payroll consistent while the luxury tax threshold creeped closer. The new CBA changes it by providing real incentive to get below $189M. I think he’s much more interested in getting back a portion of the revenue sharing that the new CBA provides. That supposedly could be worth tens of millions more than what they pay in luxury tax.
But, yeah, as others have noted here, backloading doesn’t accomplish anything related to the luxury tax. It’s AAV.
If Mason Wiliams was really able to add15 lbs of upper body muscle as has been reported, could see him rise fast, split Charleston/Tampa this year and maybe do same in AA/AAA next year. Be ready in 2014. Would be absurdly fast but not completely impossible.
I could see that happening with maybe an old cheap vet like Jones (not Jones though) being had at that time for 1-4M$ as insurance.
Pitching will get cheaper with the talent that appears to be there, however Cano will likely want a ransom…a 6/140ish wouldn’t surprise me.
Who knows? Two years of play is a loooong time. I suspect the call will get much clearer in the interim. If Granderson hits .247 with 24HRs this year, people will be crying that our now-near-MVP player should be kicked to the curb.
So much can change, but its still interesting to look at things as they stand today.
I would keep Cano but if there is a team who is willing to pay up a lot of prospects for Granderson then I would trade him.
Current 2014 commitments are 75M (just 3 players). There’s no reason you can’t sign the two of them for around 40-45M annually and still field a top flight team. If you’ve done the math, you can get there and still keep both.
The question will be on keeping guys like Martin, Hughes, Joba, and Swisher. I think they’ll retain both Swisher and Martin, let Hughes walk or trade him. The #5 starter will have to be someone like Banuelos or Betances. If you could get both in the rotation by 2014, you have even more flexibility elsewhere. I’m guessing that Jeter’s done by 2014 (owed 3M) and Nunez will have to man SS. If the Killer Bs are the #4 and #5, then you can spend some $ on finding an upgrade at SS.
Quantifying and figuring how to mitigate the loss of runs created from losing Cano or Granderson is a question for another day. Both All-Stars will unquestionably remain in pinstripes this season, so austerity discussions are jumping the gun a bit with respect to saying “x stays, y goes.”
Figuring out what to do with Martin and Swisher are the more immediate issues.
I have a post going up at 4 where (using some very rough math) I have Nunez at SS, Banuelos in the rotation and Cano, Grandy, Swisher and Martin all being retained. It can be done.
Is there enough money to correct Nunez fielding/throwing?
Its all footwork with him, easily correctable. He’s really just a bit nervous and trying too hard to make plays.
Why is Jeter not exercising his option in that scenario though? That’s not a team choice, so shouldnt that be factored in?
Maybe, maybe not. Jeter has often said if he’s got nothing left, he would walk away. I think the Yanks gave him that option with that understanding.
Jeter thinking he has nothing left and Yankee fans thinking Jeter has nothing left are likely 2 very different things. I have a feeling Jeter exercised the option even if the rest of Yankeeland thinks he has nothing left.
lets hope Nunez shows improvement this year. I like Nunez and I think he can be a capable starting ss. In your scenario do you still have Jeter on the team, because if he is, its going to be 14m sitting on the bench. So, while they may have a cheap ss in Nunez they still would have Jeter’s money. I cant see Jeter retiring while still under contract.
I can’t imagine Jeter exercising that option of he knows the team doesn’t want him back. He’s always said he wants to keep playing as long as the game is still fun, that wouldn’t be any fun for anybody involved. You know the team would leak that, and he’d spend all year answering questions (his favorite activity) about why he’s getting 14M on a team that doesn’t want him there. He’d walk away, his legacy and endorsements are worth more to him than an ugly exit w/14M.
I dont think Jeter will look at it like that. If Jeter still thinks he can play, I think he would play and live with the questions and the Yankees frustration. Jeters a big boy and I dont see him letting the press make his decision for him.
Oh, and I dont think 1 bad year is going to hurt his legacy or endorcements. It might leave a bad taste in a few peoples mouths for a year or 2 but it would all be forgotten soon enough. Not to mention there would be plenty of media outlets killing the Yankees for trying to force Jeter into retirement so that the Stiens can put more money into their pockets.
If he’s washed up and he knows then, ya I can see him retiring, but if hes comming off a season where he hits ~.280, hes playing.
I think he’s retiring as a Yankee, the two are inseparable. So it really comes down to how he’s playing as you stated, and whether the team wants him back. I assume he’s done by then, but I could be wrong.
I think it all comes down to how hes playing. I dont think he will care what the Yankees want. Its his option not theirs. The issue with him retiring as a Yankee will be where can the Yankees play him if he can still hit? I can see a scenario where he can still hit and has value to another team but not so much for the Yankees. I dont think its far fetched that he keeps playing after 2014 for another team as an Of/DH. I’m thinking the last couple years of Paul Molitor’s career.
Could Adams be the wild card if things with Cano get crazy? I mean look at Prince & Albert’s years & dough.
Adams is protected on the 40 man, but would he really be a risk of losing with so little playing time the last few years? Maybe they see extreme high side in him.
Who is Cano’s agent…hopefully not Boras.
Robbie recently hired Boras, he wants to get paid
We’d need to see Adams mash at the AA level and knock Corban Joseph down the depth chart before stating that Adams “is back.” Adams had put together a really impressive start to the 2010 season before that horrible injury.
He could be a wild card for sure. However, the fact that his ankle still isnt 100% combined with 2 years of missed development time, makes him a long shot.
I would think Williams is more likely to be able to replace Granderson in 2014 at this point than
Adams is to replace Cano at this point.
Adams replace Cano? Did Yankees get Madoff’d?
……
We know you’ve been anti-budget for a long time now, but…all indications are that there is one. Its time for fans to start taking that into account during their skull sessions.
Yeah. In 2 years we’ll likely find out a whole lot more about Adams health and ability.
I prefer option 3
Resign both, be aggressive in promoting the younger hitters (only when warranted of course; I can’t stress that enough. If guys like Bichette, Williams, Santana, etc are killing the ball like they did last year promote them to High A or even AA if they are judged to need that kind of challenge )
Rookie ball to AA is a pretty huge jump…
All players mentioned are no longer in rookie ball. They will be in A ball this year, if they dominate the level, get aggressive and give them the Mike Trout/Bryce Harper treatment to prove themselves, if they don’t then its no issue just keep them at the current level.
Where did Bichette and Santana play last year? Pretty sure it was rookie ball.
IMO, Cano is a once in a generation talent. You aren’t going to find another second baseman with that kind of bat and glove combination with out selling the farm to get him.
By that logic, although CFer’s who hit 40 HR’s are also extremely rare, I think if you have to trade one you sell high on Granderson. Cano’s a lot more likely to maintain his numbers year in and year out than Grandy.
That being said, I think both are very special players and trading either one of them would be eventually regretted.
But I think you are more likely to win with Cano w/o Grandy than vice-versa.
Second basemen historically do not age well. Maybe Cano moves to 3rd and Alex to DH in a couple of years but Cano has less value as a 3B than he does as a 2B.
2nd baseman also don’t tend to hit for the power or average Robi does so we really can’t know what will happen
I agree we can’t know, but the fact that he’s a freak of nature in hitting does not lend any credence at all to the idea he’ll stick on 2nd.
I mean, people have been worried about his arm/throwing motion going forward for yeeeears. Nothings come of it so far, but its one thing to watch.
that’s news to me, I’ve never heard anyone talk about his arm (which is very strong) or his throwing motion
3B is a really weak position around MLB right now.
Obviously both would be better but if someone puts up a package like the Braves for Teix then fuck yeah do it.
What package like that is even out there though? It’s obviously hard to evaluate this far in advance, as we won’t know who might consider themselves contenders next year who don’t now, or vice versa, and knowing who the top-flight prospects are going to be next year is no mean feat either. To compare to Tex, you’d need a top young position player prospect (either CF or SS would be best to compare to Andrus), a top pitching prospect (Feliz), a B/B- level position player (Saltallamacchia), and 2 other prospects. What team A) has that farm system to offer, and B) might have a hole for Granderson/Cano? Being able to do either one would open things up a bit, of course.
I remember Salty being more of a headlining top prospect at that time.
I would definitely float the idea of trading Granderson but not actively shop him. I think you could get the Nationals to give you a kings ransom since they have been looking for centerfielders for I don’t know…..forever.
I thought Jeter’s 2014 option was for $8M?
We should just do the budget for 2015 if jeter plays. Makes the math so much easier
I think given Gardner’s ability to play CF at a gold glove level, and assuming Mason Williams continues to progress as one of the Yankees best position playing prospects, I would definitely consider trading Granderson for the right package of high end young pitching and a cost-controllable hitter. It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out, but I feel like the fact that the Yankees have 2 in house CF candidates (Gardner + Williams) I think Granderson is the more expendable of the two.
If they’re serious about making a big dent in the drive for 189 then the best way to approach it would be a Burnett-esque dump of Arod or Tex (particularly the former considering all the bonus’ he’s in line for).
Uhhhh.
How ’bout no? We’d be paying those bonuses AND 75% of the contract anyway. To heck with that.
He’s still a very, very good 3B and I can see that continuing for at least the next 2 seasons. The only way its not worth it is if he just comes apart offensively and there’s no reason to believe that that is going to happen. The power outage is worrisome, but he was beat to Hell. And if it doesn’t come back, at least we won’t have to pay the bonuses (pleasemakeuspaythempleasemakeuspaythempleasemakeuspaythem)
If you could get the Nationals to part with Rendon, Hood, and Meyer and a lesser piece I’d definitely think they would part with Granderson
Trading a top Already expensive soon to be very expensive player like granderson or cano won’t work for the yanks. They can’t trade the player to the other big market teams Boston Texas angels are direct competitors, mets dodgers cubs appear to be out of market, giants, nationals or marlins?
Not to mention the Yankees have alot of quality prospects. Its not like they have a barren farm system that needs to be rebuilt. Why would they trade a Cano or Granderson now, and weaken the team for the next 2 yrs. At the very worst they end up with a first round pick if they loose Cano or Granderson. I would rather have that than a greatly diminished Yankee team.
I largely agree. It’d all depend on what we could get back though. Obviously we don’t need catchers or pitchers and 1Bmen would be blocked for the foreseeable future, but beyond that? We’ve generally only got one serious prospect (if that) at each position, many of them 3-5 years out.
We’ve got a very good farm system, but mostly at 2 positions. We could use some prospects at other positions.
As crazy as this sounds, I wouldn’t be that pissed at all if they traded Granderson for a haul of young prospects, just as long as it means keeping Cano, although nothings a guarantee with Scott Boras as his agent.
With that said, I voted to keep Granderson and Cano. You want to give your team the best chance to win a World Series this year and next year.
Do we need to stay at $189M for only 2014 or is it 2014 and beyond?
Sounded like Hal’s plan is 2014 and beyond.
No one knows but him. It certainly sounds like he wants to avoid perennially paying the tax. I have to think that we’d do it if it meant getting the right player/players, but it sure seems like we can expect to hover between 185-200 million for the foreseeable future.
Granderson I can see trading, considering he was brought in from outside the organization but the fact that anyone even considers trading Cano makes me sick. The man is the best 2b player in the sport, and a home grown Yankee. Trading him would be akin to trading Jeter at the same point in his career. Lets give the guy a little respect people, Cano should be a life long Yankee. Period.
I agree with that, most people talk about trading Granderson really. It takes a special kind of prospect lover to want to trade either, but especially Cano.
Both of these. Barring true Boraseian insanity, Yankee honor almost demands we keep the guy. The problem is, Boras knows this. I think the difference could very easily be Cano and what he wants. If he’s willing to let Boras hold the Yankees ransom while entertaining lower but competitive offers from other teams…we’d be pretty screwed.
The only way I could possibly see Cano going someplace else if another team gives him a crazy Fielder type deal. The game isnt like it was when Jeter became a FA, there are alot more teams that can and do spend big money. I would think if they plan to keep him, he never hits FA. FA is much too much of a crap shoot these days, you never know what team is going to blow the field away in terms of dollars and years.
I agree 100%. FA has far too many variables these days. But there’s no way Boras would, in a vacuum, allow Cano to sign a non-FA deal at bellow “market value” (a value Boras would pick from a fanciful purple sky). In fact, he might gig us for trying to sign him before he hits the market. I would.
I think a lot of the question about retaining Cano will depend on Cano. We’ll just have to see.
I would think a 7yr 140m range deal would be hard for Cano to turn down right now. He would probably get more on the market, but thats 2 years away and the Yankees would be assuming alot of risk. The closer he gets to FA, I think the harder it will be for the Yankees to sign him. If he continues playing at or above the same level, 9 and 10 yr deals could be brought into play. Thats the point at which the Yankees could loose him.
With the Yankees plan to be under the luxory tax in 2014 and beyond, I dont think they can wait for their players to hit FA anymore. They are going to have to start locking them up. If the Angles were able to come to a deal with Weaver, the Yankees certainly can with Cano, if he wants to keep playing for the Yankees. It wouldnt even have to be at a discount.
Yankees have to evaluate Cano’s value going forward… Not backwards. I think he’ll slide to 3B in a few years and be fine, but there’s no need to get into a contract you think is a bad idea just because of what team a kid signed with at 16.
I think you are flat wrong. Cano is a better fielding second basemen than Jeter has ever been at short. Cano also has more of an impact at the plate than Jeter ever had. If the Yankees could live all these years with Jeter at ss, more of a premium position than 2b, there is no reason, that all of a sudden they will need to move Cano. If they move Cano it would because A-rod is a full time DH and they have a better option at 2nd than at 3rd, not becasue Cano is unable to play 2nd.
The only reason Cano moving is a reasonable assumption is that 2Bmen are, generally speaking, some of the first players to break down. Far quicker than SS, at least when the benchmark you’re using is Jeets (luk at teh gold gloves!).
Yea, thats true. Just hard to imagine Cano breaking down as I dont even think hes ever missed a game do to injury. If he does break down like some of the other 2Bmen have, a move to third might not even be viable. I guess the real question is do you believe in the history of 2Bmen breaking down or Cano’s history of health? One thing is for sure, it probably wouldnt hurt to give Cano a few days off. He plays 160/161 games every year. If anything, that could lead to some issues.
In fairness, Jeter has at least 2 offensive years better than any of Cano’s offensive years
Jeter’s top 3 wRC+: 157 (1999), 142 (2006), 136 (2000)
Cano’s top 3 are: 144, 133, 128
Jeter has 4 seasons with at least a .390 wOBA, Cano has none
Jeter’s top OPS+ is 153, Cano’s is 141
Jeter before his 10 yr contract (1995-2000) 785 games .322/.394/.468, .382 wOBA, 128 wRC+
Cano career so far: 1053 games, .308/.347/.496, .359 wOBA, 119 wRC+
Jeter in his prime was every bit as much of an impact bat as Cano has been
Offensive numbers were inflated during Jeters prime, they are comming way down in Cano’s prime. I dont think anyone thought of Jeter as a middle of the lineup bat in his prime. He could hit 3rd if needed, no one considered him a capable 4th or 5th place hitter. Cano could bat in all those spots.
What spot in the order you hit and how good of a hitter you are… not the same thing. Why is a #4 or #5 hitter more valuable than a #2 hitter or a lead-off hitter exactly?
OPS+ is adjusted against league average… so that argument makes no sense.
You seem to be unable to evaluate this objectively. Cano will never break down and the Yankees will never move him. Ok, since you say so.
We’ll see.
i dont understand. the yankees have a number of people coming of the books by 2014. If Granderson and Cano warrant extensions. They will be kepted. Cano is clearly the better player. He is the best yankee player. Cano should bat third everyday this year.