Breaking even on an A-Rod trade

2012 Yankees Injury Data
Fujikawa will come over to MLB this winter

The other day, nearly half of RAB readers said they believe the Yankees will manage to trade Alex Rodriguez this offseason. Where and for who is another matter entirely, but we can all agree that the club will have to eat some portion of the $114M left on his contract to facilitate a trade. How much of that do they need to eat for the deal to make sense? I have no idea, but Eno Sarris ran through the numbers at FanGraphs.

Using various projections and aging curves, Eno comes up with a number around $80M (in either cash paid out or bad contracts coming back). I think the projections used were a little optimistic, but we’ll roll with them. That $80M number assumes the Yankees will be able to replace A-Rod‘s production internally, with David Adams or Corban Joseph or Jayson Nix or whoever. That’s a big unknown here, the replacement. We also shouldn’t discount the intangibles — will moving A-Rod help or hurt the clubhouse culture? — as well as his marquee value. We have absolutely no way of addressing those last two points so don’t even try. On the field though, eating $80M of that $114M to send A-Rod elsewhere is the (theoretical) break-even point.

2012 Yankees Injury Data
Fujikawa will come over to MLB this winter
  • Scheister

    Here’s to hoping they don’t trade A-Rod. He had a bad year, yes. Would we even be discussing this if not for the playoff benching. Putrid managment. They signed him to a ridiculous contract and will pay him regardless. If they had a young budding star on his way up and was being blocked by A-Rod, I could see DHing him more often than playing the field but why the F would they want to pay him to play for another team.

    • jjyank

      I feel you. I don’t want A-Rod to go either, but I do think that there is a point where I would trade him (if enough money is taken on by the other team). I don’t want to “break even”, or even come close to it. If A-Rod gets traded, I want to to be Vernon Wells-esque, where the team takes on the vast majority of the contract. Anything besides that, and I say no.

      I realize that this won’t happen. Unless Loria has a few too many shots of tequila with Cashman at the winter meetings, that is. A-Rod will still be a Yankee by opening day, and I will be happy to see him back.

      • Scheister

        I can agree with that but I just don’t see a salary dump happening. Maybe a desperate waiver claim with a year or three left in the midst of a bounce back season but a full five years and 115M is a boatload of dough. Best chance is prob half and if that’s the best case I’d rather see him stay put too.

        I’ll buy the top shelf shots for Loria if it help facilate the fleecing.

      • Laz

        My thoughts exactly. I’m not expecting a whole lot out of arod. I think he can be league average at least. A trade would also make a hole over at 3rd. I would trade him if they were able to dump enough salary. $80M just is too much to eat.

        I figure for the next 2 years he can be decent defensively and have give .270/.350/.450. In this market he would be the best 3B available still, so someone of his caliber could get 2/22. So in that scenario he would only have to be worth ~$4M a year for the 3 years after that. Not that hard.

    • Realist

      Yankees better not trade Arod. I will say that if they trade Arod that they better prepare to trade everyone else as well (Jeter, Granderson, Girardi, etc…)

    • Hitman 23

      They would pay to have him play for another team because he is a cancer in the clubhouse. Also, i have been a Yankee fan my entire life and get sick to my stomach when I see him in pinstripes. There was a time when the Yanks wouldn’t even consider having someone of his caliber on the team. He is a ME only guy which does not fit the Yankee way. ANY player that is trying to get pussy during the first game of the ALCS should be FIRED. I would rather have Brosius come out of retirement than see this jackass for the next 5 years. From a statiscal standpoint I understand that he is a “good” third baseman but at this point it’s time to cut ties with this loser.

      • toad

        You have sources in the clubhouse, or is this just your opinion?

        • Slu

          I know I am late to this thread and nobody will see this, but I recently met Jamie Moyer and had a few beers with him (and he paid). I asked him about Alex. He said Alex is most concerned about himself and his stats. I consider that confirmation.

          • 0 for infinity and beyond

            How many beers did he have and how bitter was he about being cut?

      • Nick2Slick

        Bravo! This was an awesome piece of satire… Right?

  • Avi

    If Arod was a free agent I would sign him to a 5 year $34MM deal. I’d rather have arod than the savings in that scenario.

    • Avi

      If the Dodgers were dumb enough to sponsor the Great Boston Bailout maybe they’re dumb enough to take Arod’s whole contract. You can easily see arod being a better return on investment than the collective contracts of Crawford, Adrian Gonzo and Beckett.

    • Need Pitching & Hitting

      It would be more than $34M because of the HR bonuses, at least $40M and somewhat likely $46M, but I agree $80M is probably too much to eat for it to make sense for the Yankees unless they got a good piece in return.
      For me, in a straight ARod for a bag of balls trade, $70M would be the breakeven point, especially considering that trading him will likely at least slightly weaken the team for the next 1-2 years.

      Either way, I don’t see a trade happening.

      • RetroRob

        You right, there are the HR marketing bonus clauses, yet that’s not a major problem. If he’s productive and blowing past 700, 714 and whatever the last number is, then that means he’s being productive enough to also help sell tickets and merchandise. I think that’s an angle that’s lost here. As we saw in the ALCS, A-Rod is still the focus on never-ending media coverge. He will sell tickets for the acquiring team, which is why I expect the Yankees to be contacted on A-Rod. Some team is hoping the Yankees will trade A-Rod, $90M, and the acquiring team gets a 3B’man productin 2.5-3.5 WAR, creating news, selling tickets, and getting 3,000 hits, and 660, 700, 714 etc. milestones for the new club. Yes, the Yankees will be called, and they will pass on all unreasonable offers.

        • Need Pitching & Hitting

          He should get the 660 bonus no problem even if he’s lousy.
          For 714, he only needs to average 13.4 HR’s/year. He can attain that and still be worth very little over the next 5 years.
          All told, he can possibly get $12M in HR bonuses without being very good and without selling much in the way of tickets and merchandise.
          Personally, I think how many tickets he’ll sell will depend largely on his performance. If he continues to decline, I don’t think many fans will shell out for tickets just because he was great once.
          I do think there might be some interest from teams seeing if the Yankees are desperate enough to move ARod so that they’ll eat enough of his contract to make him a relative bargain.
          And I’d hope the Yankees will pass unless they don’t have to eat more than about $70M (or more if they get something useful back).

    • Laz

      Arod would be the best 3B if he was a free agent too. He is significantly better than youk at this point still.

  • Lew

    I read this and the $80+ million and I think, A-rod will be a Yankee for at least one more year. I also think he will make something of a come-back and is worth keeping rather than save a measly 34 million over 5 years. But I think the Yanks need to go after a reasonably strong platoon alternative, I would have said Chavez but not now. I would go for a 1st/3rd playing lefty, no idea who might be available…

  • vin

    I would think Nunez would the logical option at 3B. Especially if he gets the chance to prepare for it everyday. He’ll eventually get the throwing mechanics down. Another option would be to move Cano to 3B and put Nunez at 2B, but that’s probably too premature at this point.

    • Lew

      True, though Nunez has no power. But maybe too much power is part of the problem.

      I was just checking the stats and am reminded that Chavez had a better OPS than A-Rod, and almost as many HRs in less than 2/3 the plate appearances. Hmmm. But I guess we can’t expect that again.

      Its odd but when you review the stats, the 2012 Yanks do really look good on paper…very productive up and down the roster (though some pretty low BAs).

  • Kosmo

    once again:
    Arod to the Angels for Wells and Morales. The Angels unload about 50 million in contracts and split the difference with NY @ 32 million a piece. Morales is a FA after next season so if the Angels traded him now he would probably not net much. Wells could recapture his mojo. He has 2 years remaining. Arod would be an upgrade at 3B over Callaspo. The Yanks gain a good DH in Morales.
    The Yanks could replace Arod with Adams. As far as trades go Headley IMO is out of reach but the Padres Gyorko may not be.

    In 2 years the age of the current Yankee infield will look like this:
    Cano will be the youngest at 31 followed by Tex at 34, Arod 38 and Jeter 40.

    • Nonsense

      I am fully against the Wells for Arod chatter. It does not make any sense. Wells is really the definition of dead money useless. If they want to package other players, then perhaps. Maybe Wells and Peter Bourjos for Arod and $$ and the Yanks flip Bourjos and David Phelps to the Nat’s for Anthony Rendon, then maybe. I still think there is something to the three team situation with the D-Backs, Marlins and Yanks. Arod + $30mm to the Marlins. Reyes and $8mm (coming from Marlins) to the D-Backs and the Yanks get Upton.

      • Need Pitching & Hitting

        So all the Yankees have to do is eat $30M of ARod’s contract, and for that they get Justin Upton? LOL.
        They could eat his entire contract and still not get Justin Upton back.

        • jjyank

          This should prove to be an…entertaining offseason.

          • Nonsense

            I resent that.

          • Nonsense

            I love it. I called the Pirates and Burnett deal almost down to the dollar a year earlier and all I got was “you’re nuts” “it will never happen” Well, it did happen. People lack imagination on these forums.

            • jjyank

              If I were to pick something that the RAB comment section lacked, I certainly would not pick imagination.

        • Nonsense

          Dude. Seriously. Open your mind for a moment. Actually it would Reyes and some money for Upton. Yeah, sure there may need to be other pieces or a little more money, but the template is there and it’s very possible.

          • Need Pitching & Hitting

            In your scenario, Yankees would be losing only ARod and getting Upton back. For ARod and only $30M, the Yankees would have to include a prospect haul just to get a team to even consider taking that much of ARod’s contract. Forget getting any value back. If they want any legit value back for ARod, they’d need to eat at least $80M, and even that would probably not bring back any significant value.

            • Nonsense

              “they’d need to eat at least $80M” says who? you and some guy at Fangraphs? Try thinking outside the box once in a while instead of following exactly what is written. Sure, my proposal has it’s flaws, but it’s a start and pieces and money can be added or subtracted. Your black and white “no chance” outlook is pretty lame.

              • Get Phelps Up

                Your handle is perfect.

              • jjyank

                No, says common sense. Why would the DBacks take on $84 mil of A-Rod AND give up Upton in the process? It just doesn’t work like that.

                • Nonsense

                  You’re not reading what I am writing. I proposed Arod + Nunez + Nova + 45mm initially. Then went on to state that a deal btw the Marlins, D-Backs and Yanks could be possible. All teams get something of need. If the Yanks trade Arod and $34mm to the Marlin’s that makes their cost around $80mm for a player that will do more than just hit for that organization. Reyes is owed about the same for the remainder of his contract, no? Does Arod (even money at that point) have more value to the Marlins than Reyes at that point? I think so, absolutely. Then Marlins ship Reyes and a few million (maybe $8mm) to the D-Backs and the Yanks get Upton. People massively overvaluing Upton, devaluing Reyes and Arod. So the Yanks through in another piece a prospect like Campos or somthing. I don’t know, but the framework for something like this is entirely plausible. The Marlins pretty much swap out player for player in Reyes and Arod. The D-Backs acquire one of the best short stops in the game for about $25mm more total than they are paying Upton over the coming years. There are ways to make this work.

                  • jjyank

                    I read this: “I still think there is something to the three team situation with the D-Backs, Marlins and Yanks. Arod + $30mm to the Marlins. Reyes and $8mm (coming from Marlins) to the D-Backs and the Yanks get Upton.”

                    Now from what you wrote here, the Yankees would be paying $30 mil (out of $114), lose A-Rod, and get Upton. That’s what you wrote, and that’s what I was responding to. And that’s crazy.

                    • Nonsense

                      Good grief. Instead of re-writing what I said, let me know what doesn’t make sense to you and why. Preferably in a little more detail that just a one-liner response saying because “this other guy said so”

                    • jjyank

                      Okay, I assume we are on the same page in that I was responding to the specific statement I quoted.

                      And leave the “Preferably in a little more detail that just a one-liner response saying because ‘this other guy said so'” condescension elsewhere. I never said that.

                      What doesn’t make sense to me? It’s pretty simple. Upton isn’t getting traded for A-Rod, I don’t care what the money situation is. Yes, I know you proposed a three-team trade, but the bottom line in your scenario is that the Yankees lose 1 player (A-Rod) and the Yankees gain one player (Upton). Not. Happening. The Yankees could eat the entire contract and still couldn’t swing that.

                    • Nonsense

                      Then we’ll just have to agree to disagree.

                  • WhittakerWalt

                    Only Yankees fans think Nunez is worth a damn. Seriously, between Nunez and Joba you’d think we had two future hall of famers on the team that no one else knows about.

                    • I am not the droids you’re looking for…(I believe that children are our future)

                      Actually Cashman has confirmed multiple times that several teams have inquired on Nunez over time.

              • Need Pitching & Hitting

                What do you think ARod would realistically get if he were a free agent now?

                Hint: It’s nowhere near the $90M the Marlins would have to pick up in you’re scenario. Why would the Marlin’s trade an asset that you apparently think could obtain Justin Upton for the priviledge of greatly overpaying Arod for his decline years?

                I don’t even agree with the fangraphs article. I think $70M is the break even point for the Yankees because an above average 3B will be hard to replace. If they want anything of real value back, it would take a lot more than $70M. ARod’s value just isn’t that high.

                I’m just being realistic.

                • Nonsense

                  You’re looking at this the wrong way. While I understand conventional wisdom would suggest you equate a players value to what they would fetch on the current open market, I don’t always look at some of these deals like that. Frankly, Arod probably wouldn’t get more than 3/$36mm right now. But I am not looking at it like that at all. You have a player in Reyes who does nothing for the Marlins. He is an albatross of a contract on a losing team right now and he doesn’t fill seats. If the Loria was presented with two options in front of him: You can keep Reyes and his $80mm or so contract or have Arod the Miami native, someone who people love down there, the dire need to sell tickets at a new stadium, who do you think he would pick if the money was the same? 100% I say Arod in that case. The secondary effect with Reyes and some cash to the D-Backs for Upton isn’t so far-fetched either. Not perfect, but a workable idea.

                  • Need Pitching & Hitting

                    If they don’t want Reyes and can move him for Upton, why wouldn’t they do that anyway? Even if they don’t want Upton, he’s cheaper and has a lot of trade value, they could just flip him.
                    Freeing up Reyes’ money doesn’t mean it makes sense to overpay for ARod. I would think Miami might be interested in ARod, but why would they pay more than market value for him? It doesn’t make sense for them to do that.
                    Also why is Arizona trading Upton -a valuable, extremely young, player with a very reasonable contract – for an “albatross of a contract”?
                    None of this makes any sense, except for the Yankees making out like bandits.
                    No reason for Miami to drastically overpay ARod.
                    No reason for Arizona to trade probably their most valuable trade chip for a bad contract.

                    • Nonsense

                      Reyes is a bad contract for the Marlins. For 20 or so other teams its a pretty solid deal. You took my words and altered them to mean that Reyes is a bad deal all around, which is incorrect. You have a guy getting paid over $100mm that just had elbow surgery in Crawford. Teams make business decisions for more reasons than just WAR and their “actual” value. You’re not reading btw the lines with what I am saying. Arod adds value to the Marlins for more reasons than just production on the field. You’re right in saying that the Marlins could swap Reyes and Cash for Upton and flip Upton elsewhere. What do they accomplish by doing that. A couple of A prospects that they won’t see for 3 or 4 years? I’m talking about the now and selling tickets at a new stadium after a year that was a complete circus in Miami.

                    • Nonsense

                      And everyone needs to stop with the Justin Upton is a superstar talk. Yeah, he’s a fine player. A player that would be a great addition to the Yanks, considering their opening in RF, but there is some massive overvaluing going on here about him. It’s not like the guy is being paid $2.5mm the next few years. He’s making some real money and if there are any issues or concerns how he fits the mold in Arizona long term, why not try to move him.

                    • jjyank

                      Justin Upton has had two seasons of superstar caliber seasons and he just turned 25 two months ago. He is not one yet, but he very well might be. Certainly more of a sure thing than most players 25 or under.

                    • Need Pitching & Hitting

                      The Dodgers took Crawford because they wanted AGon. ARod does add more value beyond production on the field. Just not nearly enough to justify giving up valuable assets to overpay him for. What would they accomplish by flipping Upton? Maybe getting players to help them win games? That has value in selling tickets as well.
                      They don’t need to trade Upton to get ARod. Especially if the Yankees aren’t eating the entire contract.

                      I didn’t say Upton is a superstar, but he does have that potential. I have more concerns than most here about him. Arizona may try to move him, but considering contracts and age, he has much more value than Reyes. Upton for someone like Andrus makes much more sense for Arizona.

                      Yes the Marlins might have interest in ARod. Doesn’t mean they’d be interested at a ridiculous cost to acquire him.

                      Yes the D’backs may trade Upton. Doesn’t mean they’ll trade him for just anything.

  • Ed

    Here’s a crazy idea. What if the Yankees and Arod renegotiated his deal to be a 1 year deal and paid him, I dunno, $70mm. Gets them under $189 (don’t have to count money paid to another team as part of a salary dump) and Arod could end up better off if he can get a 4 year 44 million deal after the season. If it need to be $80mm that’s fine if they’d have to eat it anyway.

    Seems it could work for the union, arod and the yanks. Would MLB allow it?

    • jjyank

      “Would MLB allow it?”

      No. Blatant luxury tax circumvention, no way.

      • I am not the droids you’re looking for…(I believe that children are our future)

        Agree it wouldn’t fly as proposed but theoretically there’s no reason they couldn’t pay him $114 million in 2013 as a restructured one year deal. (Could be less too if they proposed a reasonable TVM calculation…so maybe $105 million). And he would obviously get “something” in a new contract from some team for 2014 and beyond, so in that regard it’s a better situation for Arod.

        Now obviously that would have some rather dramatic impact on the Yanks payroll and luxury tax for 2013. But it would sure make him go away in a hurry.

        I think this is cockamamie, for the record. But theoretically I think it’s possible.

  • JLC 776

    A-Rod’s contract is the price of 2009 and I’m completely cool with that. If you set the bar for him going forward as a .270 or so hitter with occasional streaks of power and an average glove, than keeping him around really isn’t that bad. It’s all perspective and the whole salary thing greatly skews that perspective for most fans.

    • Get Phelps Up

      I agree with this. People seem to forget that he was on pace for 25 homers before he got hurt. Unless some team is willing to take on almost all the money, trading him would be counterproductive I think.

      • Nonsense

        Exactly. I highlighted the same thoughts below. If the Yanks can make a solid deal to get someone in return and only eat $25mm-$35mm, then there is a deal to discuss. Anything away from that is counterproductive, as you stated. The guy is still one of the best players in the game regardless of the shit-show 4 games we saw against the Tigers. Just because Heyman and other writers state the Yanks are “stuck with him” and all the other useless headlines the last week, the truth is baseball people (GM’s and such) have already stated that he would be an intriguing and interesting option for their team.

  • Nonsense

    That’s just gibberish. No way the Yanks do a deal where they eat $80mm. It’s already been stated that Arod is still worth $7mm-$10mm per year, at least the short-term projections. Someone said the other day that the Yanks could acquire Wells, his contract and the Yanks pay the rest of the freight on Arod. How I ask, does that make any sense? Arod can at least still play and has marquee value. People said the same about Burnett, that he was worthless. Right. The Yanks managed to only eat a little more than 50% of his remaining deal. Carl Crawford had two seasons where he played in less than 25% of the games and just had surgery, so no telling how he’ll come out of it and the Sox shed the entire freight of over $100MM!!!!

    Arod is still more valuable than people want to admit and this is just posturing among writers and baseball people. He is worth no-where what he is being paid, but he would be viewed highly by many teams if they could get him for the next 5 years and less than $60mm.

    I wonder if Arod, Nunez, Nova and $45mm could be sent to the D-Backs for Justin Upton. I’m also willing to bet, regardless of the reports, that the Marlins are more interested in Arod than they are letting on. I wonder if a three team deal is out there where Reyes goes to team x (maybe the D-Backs again) and Arod goes to the Marlins, since they’ll have opened up near even money and the Yanks get Upton. It’s not as far-fetched as it seems. Marlins get their “name brand,” which they sorely need right now. The D-Backs fill their SS need with one of the best in the game and the Yanks get Upton. The Yanks would still have to kick in some dollars, but probably no more than $30mm to the Marlins at that point.

    I see there being a lot of options on the table and this other talk about Arod being worth $30mm total is complete BS..I mean the dude’s season wasn’t that bad and quite frankly, the Yanks baby him too much.

    • Nonsense

      ..and if it comes down the fact that there is no interest or the interest requires them to pay most of his contract, you pass. I rather have 60% of Arod than what would likely come back in return in that case and there is a point, where it no longer makes economic sense to trade him. Yeah, $80mm, sure. Some of the best minds in baseball in the Yanks front office and writers think the Yanks would make a deal like that.

    • Need Pitching & Hitting

      I don’t think the D’Backs take ARod, Nunez, Nova and only $45M for a bag of balls, much less for Justin Upton.

    • Thunder Road Runner

      how exactly do they “baby” him?

      • Nonsense

        Play two games and a day off. Play two more games and a day off. I think they used him a little conservatively this season. Obviously the wrist injury slowed things down, but I watch Arod get three days a week off and Jeter playing on a bum leg and even with Jeter saying he wants to play, it’s up to management to make that decision and they kept him in. Why can’t they do the same for Arod at times and just say “you’re fine, you’re in the line-up again today.” There were times throughout the season (even before the wrist injury) that Arod was out of the line-up and I couldn’t understand why.

    • Tony_Turdner

      A-Rod + $30M brings back Upton from Arizona? As Mike said up top, A-Rod + $80M with nothing coming back only gets you rid of A-Rod. Are you planning to get Towers, Beinfest, and Hill extremely drunk before you broach the subject? (I recommend Tequila Shooters.) Or are you planning to simply hold them at gunpoint until they sign?

      “He is worth no-where what he is being paid, but he would be viewed highly by many teams if they could get him for the next 5 years and less than $60mm.”

      If A-Rod was a FA this year, no one would sign him to 5 years $60M. No one. He would be lucky if he could get half that.

      “I wonder if Arod, Nunez, Nova and $45mm could be sent to the D-Backs for Justin Upton. ”

      I know it is now Hot Stove time, and this is RAB where we throw around some wild trade ideas, but “Come on, Man”. You have to be kidding. A-Rod, Nunez, Nova, and $45M doesn’t even get you rid of A-Rod. Let alone bring back the D-backs best player.

      I think, all in all, the best chance of your plan succeeding is the Tequila Shooters.

      • Nonsense

        Where did I state the Arod and $30mm ONLY would bring back Upton? No where did I say it like that without the inclusion of other players or the acquisition of Reyes, a quality player. I wonder how many people still have black and white tv’s since that is the only vision that I witnessing on here.

        • jjyank

          “I still think there is something to the three team situation with the D-Backs, Marlins and Yanks. Arod + $30mm to the Marlins. Reyes and $8mm (coming from Marlins) to the D-Backs and the Yanks get Upton.”

          Technically the trade is for Reyes, but the bottom line is the Yankees lose A-Rod and $30, and gain Upton. That’s the issue most of us are having. It has nothing to do with “we only have black and white TVs”, but rather “there’s no way in hell this will ever happen”.

      • Nonsense

        ..and thank you for stating your own thoughts and ideas on what you would do instead of attacking others. Definitely a productive way to have a discussion.

  • John M.

    I always wonder if Hal throws this contract in Hanks face if/when they ever argue.

  • WhittakerWalt

    Is there really that much “marquee value” for ARod anymore? The guy’s been on the team for 9 years and everyone STILL hates him.

    • jjyank

      Oh hell yeah there is. Even if you hate him (I don’t), you can’t deny that when fathers take their sons to their first game, they can say “And that right down there, number 13? He’s the active home runs leader”.

      When guys start passing hall of famers on various career accomplishments, he is a marquee name regardless of what one thinks of his personality.

    • vicki

      hahaha. go to a game. every cute girl there is wearing a number 13 tshirt.

  • Magilla Gorilla Mama Called me Roy tho

    Doesn’t ARod’s career track like Andruw Jones? Yet the Yankees got some value from him. ARod is not yet in the Andruw Jones zone and probably has at least one mor full year before he gets there.

    Keep ARod at 3B until the trade deadline. See who develops at 3B in Scranton. Really use Scranton to develop a pure 3B.

    Then on July 31, when some $12M of his salary has been chewed up, the Yankees should review their options.

    If they are driving for the pennant and he is productive, keep him.

    If they are driving for a pennant and he is unproductive, trade him.

    If they are out of the pennant race and he is productive, trade him.

    If they are out of the pennant race and he is unproductive, keep him.

    • Thunder Road Runner

      Magilla, don’t you think they’d develop a 3B if they could? The farm system isn’t exactly bursting with propects. Also, it woild be easier to move A-rod during the off-season than at the trading deadline.

  • Thunder Road Runner

    Bottom line is, A-rod’s contract is unsustainable. The team’s best chance of trading him is this winter. Get it done, and we can all move on…

  • Thunder Road Runner

    Bottom line is, A-rod’s contract is unsustainable. The team’s best chance of trading him is this winter. Get it done, and we can all move on…

    • Brian S.

      …and then throw a parade…

      • toad

        You can’t get rid ofthe contract by trading him. You’ll still have to pick up a huge part of it.

  • Brian S.

    If they have to eat 80 million it is not worth it. Just keep him at that point.

  • jim p

    ARod needs 116 homeruns to pass Bonds. At this point it looks like a close-run thing if he can make that before this contact ends, wherever he plays. Passing Mays next year, needing only 14 homers, definitely. Ruth, likely in 3 years. But Aaron and Bonds?

    I mention only because the incentives figure in cost-of-contract.

    I expect, though, that he will adjust to that inside fastball next year, he wouldn’t be the first to do so. Likely more singles and doubles than homers, which I would be fine with.

    I don’t see any sense in trading him at all. There’s what? 8 third-basemen with better WAR, none of them likely available, and no “can’t miss” 3B guys in our farm. The sole rationale — payroll flexibility — well, I just don’t see who would eat that kind of money for an aging players.

    The sensible trade-talk to my mind would be about Cano next year. Though I’m ignorant of who needs a 2B guy and would offer good players for a rental/possible extension.

    • I am not the droids you’re looking for…(I believe that children are our future)

      The laugh of it will come when we sign him to a one year deal when this one expires, so that he can pass Bonds.

      • I am not the droids you’re looking for…(I believe that children are our future)

        Oh and by laugh I mean throwing up in your mouth.

  • OldYanksFan

    See this: .266, .341, .446, .787 / 20 HR / 119 OPS+
    That’s what Craig Nettles posted for NY when he was 38.
    Guess what. It was his best year in FIVE years.
    Guess what. 2 years later, when he was FORTY, he posted very similar numbers and a 120 OPS+.

    That was Graig Nettles. A guy who was a better player, was in better shape, and worked harder than ARod. Amiright?

    Too bad Craig could’t play just one more year, so he could pass Willie Mays in HRs and get his 3,000th hit, the way ARod will NEXT year.

    There is NO way you can recoup ARod’s value in a trade… because there is more going with ARod than just WAR.

    Any of yuz guys ever see someone hit their 700th HR?
    Would you like to?

    People who know Yankee history look back and can’t believe the Yankees actually traded Babe Ruth at the end if his career.
    And yuz guys want to ‘dump’ ARod?

    Kids today. Yeesh!

    • Kosmo

      sentimentalist ! you failed to mention Nettles suffered from injury for 3 years prior to 1983. I´m old enough to remember.

    • vicki


      GAME 3!!!! GAME 3!!!!!!

  • Vic

    The solution is for ARod to gracefully retire. If you thought this year was ugly, look out.

  • endlessjose

    Lets say we trade A-Rod to the marlins and we pay over half he’s contract.Does the money we pay to the Marlins count against our budget.

  • Hardy

    That is just silly.

    If you do the same math for Teixeira and use a more friendly aging of .5 WAR/year you come up with an expectation of 11 WAR for a worth of 55 million. Nobody is arguing for paying someone 35 million to take on Teixeira.

  • Ross

    I do not think A-Rod will continue to be a .270 hitter with somewhere around 20 home runs, and just about 80 rbi. That said, which team in their right mind would take such a huge risk after his performance down the stretch and into the playoffs?

    But, sending $80mil with the guy is just a complete joke. The merchandise he’ll sell in the first season will be one-quarter of that or more.

    Large Market teams in need of a third base upgrade: Marlins (where he makes his home but, it doesn’t offer the chance to DH), Phillies (no DH but they are a perennial contender and he’d check swing five home runs a year in that bandbox), Cubs (no DH but could be a marquee draw as Theo turns the team around), White Sox (has the DH but, as another right handed power bat, he might not fit within their plans), Red Sox (and you can count them out)

    Deep pockets and could move people around to accommodate A-Rod: Dodgers (would require moving Dee Gordon to another organization and relying on Hanley at short), Braves (and I don’t think A-Rod would agree to replace Chipper), Angels (real long-shot … would A-Rod want to be second fiddle to Pujols?)

    There just doesn’t seem to be much of a market for Alex. Perhaps a package deal of Granderson and A-Rod (plus cash) to the Pale Hose will work … as long as we don’t ask too much in return.

    Special Note: I know we all covet Chase Headley but, there would have to be at least one more team in that deal to make it work. Coming in second to that type of deal would be to some how secure Todd Frazier from the Reds. (Get on it, Cash!)

    Just my random thoughts to waste a couple minutes on a Sunday of no important baseball games.

  • Nathan

    What is the point of the Yankees unloading A-Rod if they have to pay a majority of his contract, say 70-80% of it. You’d still need to find a 3B who can play an above average defense and can still put up (barely) 20 HRs and 60-70 RBIs pretty realistically.

    • Need Pitching & Hitting

      The point would be if they think they could get more value (whether at 3B or elsewhere) spending the 20-30% elsewhere than they would get out of ARod.
      Personally, I think that would be very difficult at 70-80% unless they got a valuable, low cost piece back in the trade.
      I do think if they could get another team to take on about 40% or so (saving the Yankees about $50M – potentially more as it counts toward the luxury tax threshold), they could get more bang for the buck elsewhere.

  • Realist

    Yankees 2012 Offseason Plans:

    1. Arod stays!
    2. Pick up Granderson’s option then trade him.
    3. Explore trade for Justin Upton.
    4. Resign Ichiro.
    5. Resign Martin.
    6. Resign Rivera.
    7. Resign Kuroda.
    8. Let Soriano walk.
    9. Let Swisher walk.
    10. Resign Pettitte (if he doesn’t retire)
    11. Sign a reliever as insurance (maybe Broxton)
    12. Resign Ibanez